<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Toronto &#187; Starting Rotation</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/tag/starting-rotation/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 03:35:47 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>Breaking Down the Blue Jays Strong Pitching Depth</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/27/breaking-down-the-blue-jays-strong-pitching-depth/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/27/breaking-down-the-blue-jays-strong-pitching-depth/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Feb 2017 11:41:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pitching Depth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Rotation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9117</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The oft expressed concern about almost any pitching staff, no matter how seemingly talented, is depth. It is a truism in baseball that you can never have too much pitching.  In particular Blue Jays fans have been muttering all winter about the lack of starting pitching depth behind their admirable rotation, but also many were [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The oft expressed concern about almost any pitching staff, no matter how seemingly talented, is depth. It is a truism in baseball that you can never have too much pitching.  In particular Blue Jays fans have been muttering all winter about the lack of starting pitching depth behind their admirable rotation, but also many were suspicious of the bullpen options until the recent signings of J.P. Howell and Joe Smith. But there&#8217;s more here than meets the eye.</p>
<p>Last season, 27 pitchers (not including Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins) pitched at least one inning for the Jays, 22 pitched at least five. In 2015, 23 pitched at least five, in 2014 20 gave them at least five innings. That gives you a fair ballpark of what your depth needs to look like.</p>
<p>As of this writing, there are no less than 33 pitchers who would, were it not for overcrowding, pencil in to the pitching staffs of either Toronto or Buffalo. This includes pitchers on the 40 man roster, pitchers signed to minor league contracts with big league camp invites, and a few guys listed on the Buffalo roster whose age and experience would normally make them at least AAA pitchers. In order to analyze such a group, it&#8217;s necessary to break down the candidates into manageable semgent. Let&#8217;s sort them according to their projected roles and possibility of being so assigned. In one area, it will be necessary to have some overlap as this article is primarily about bullpen options, but it&#8217;s needful to mention the starter candidates in passing. I&#8217;ll elaborate as I go. As always and obvious, all this assumes health for all individuals, which will certainly not be the actual case.</p>
<h3>Group A &#8211; Potential Starters</h3>
<ul>
<li>Tier 1  (Certain MLB Starters)
<ul>
<li>Aaron Sanchez</li>
<li>J.A. Happ</li>
<li>Marco Estrada</li>
<li>Francisco Liriano</li>
<li>Marcus Stroman</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Tier 2 (Potential AAA Starters)
<ul>
<li>Joe Biagini</li>
<li>Mat Latos</li>
<li>Gavin Floyd</li>
<li>Mike Bolsinger</li>
<li>Casey Lawrence</li>
<li>T.J. House</li>
<li>Brett Oberholtzer</li>
<li>Lucas Harrell</li>
<li>Jarrett Grube</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>It goes without saying that the Bisons won&#8217;t have a nine man rotation, which is why there will be some overlap with some of these guys and the upcoming lists. Bear with me a bit.</p>
<h3>Group B &#8211; Potential Relievers</h3>
<ul>
<li>Tier 1 (Certain MLB Relievers)
<ul>
<li>Roberto Osuna</li>
<li>Jason Grilli</li>
<li>J.P. Howell</li>
<li>Joe Smith</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Tier 2 (Potential MLB Relievers)
<ul>
<li>Mat Latos</li>
<li>Gavin Floyd</li>
<li>Aaron Loup</li>
<li>Matt Dermody</li>
<li>T.J. House</li>
<li>Chad Girodo</li>
<li>Jeff Believeau</li>
<li>Glenn Sparkman</li>
<li>Mike Bolsinger</li>
<li>Bo Schultz</li>
<li>Dominic Leone</li>
<li>Ryan Tepera</li>
<li>Danny Barnes</li>
<li>Chris Smith</li>
<li>Will Browning</li>
<li>Casey Lawrence</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The Joe Biagini Role</h3>
<p>You may ask, &#8220;Why not Joe Biagini for the Joe Biagini role?&#8221; The answer to that quandary is somewhat dependent on how the rest of the bullpen shakes out, which is why we&#8217;ll leave him for now. We know that he is going to work through spring as a starter for now to give the team options. If he does end up as a reliever then he will certainly own the fifth job in the Toronto bullpen.</p>
<p>However, he has options, he has a potential future in the rotation next year when two of the front five starters are scheduled to be potentially lost to free agency, and the team need look no further than the closer to see the conundrum that can be created by prioritizing current relief work over future starter potential. Just as importantly, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/24/joe-biagini-should-start-the-season-as-a-starting-pitcher/" target="_blank">as Matt Gwin explained last week</a>, he&#8217;s shown the ability to be viable as a starter. Because of all this, the team may explore sending Biagini to Buffalo and plugging someone else into his spot if another candidate impresses them in the spring. Here are some other candidates for the Biagini slot.</p>
<h4>Mat Latos</h4>
<p>Latos saw his velocity return during a brief stint in the Nationals bullpen last year. As such he may be a candidate for a bullpen conversion, which has, in some cases, worked for other starters struggling with velocity loss. He could be a depth starter at Buffalo, however he has an opt-out at the end of spring training (and another later in the season) and the Jays will have to consider this for conservation of resources. Logically, if the team wants a sixth starter option and a quality bullpen arm, Biagini and Latos would be the candidates. You wouldn&#8217;t want both in Toronto&#8217;s pen nor Buffalo&#8217;s rotation. Of course, it&#8217;s also possible that Latos has a poor showing in spring, in which case his major league roster consideration is moot.</p>
<h4>Gavin Floyd</h4>
<p>Floyd actually pitched well in a relief role before he was injured last year; an injury from which he has not 100% recovered. As always, he&#8217;s a ticking clock until his next injury, but he&#8217;s similar to Latos in that he has potential for a more back of the bullpen role. Choosing Floyd for one of the remaining relief spots also lets the Biagini/Latos question play out a bit further (assuming the latter accepts an assignment to Buffalo).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The Second Lefty</h3>
<p>A team that has a reasonable choice won&#8217;t go into the season with only one guy that they can throw at the other team&#8217;s left handed hitters. As such the the second lefty is often a specialist only.</p>
<h4>Aaron Loup</h4>
<p>Ostensibly, this should be Aaron Loup&#8217;s job. But it should have been his last year too and the Jays somehow managed to use him for only 14.1 major league innings. His experience and contract carry some weight here.</p>
<h4>Matt Dermody</h4>
<p>A change in delivery last spring enabled Dermody to turn around a marginal career and rocket through the Blue Jays minor league system. However, it wasn&#8217;t all good: he didn&#8217;t dominate AAA hitters as he had at lower levels. Unless he really impresses in spring, it seems reasonable to expect they would ask him to prove himself before they push Loup aside for him.</p>
<h4>T.J. House</h4>
<p>The Jays probably want House to be a depth starter in Buffalo, but management has a history with him in Cleveland. Being that he&#8217;s a lefty and that he pitched in relief part time in the minors last season they will surely talk about him in this role if he has a good spring.</p>
<h4>Chad Girodo</h4>
<p>Having been pushed off the 40 man roster, his chances for opening day are much slimmer. Girodo did deliver excellent results until he got to the second half of last August. It would be unwise to count him out just yet.</p>
<h4>Jeff Believeau</h4>
<p>For a complete description of Believeau look no further than a piece I wrote on him in <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/15/what-to-think-about-jeff-beliveau/">December</a> when he was signed. He&#8217;s an interesting guy. Like Girodo, not being on the 40 man roster makes it unlikely that Believeau will break camp with the Blue Jays, but I think he could force their hand.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>The &#8220;We Need to Keep This Guy&#8221; 7th Reliever</h3>
<p>The final slot will serve as a clearing house, more than likely, for pitchers that the team stands to lose if they do not make the team. There are three prominent individuals (Latos could fall in this category as well) who would seem to be in direct competition with each other.</p>
<h4>Glenn Sparkman</h4>
<p>Sparkman, also known as Biagini 2.0, is a Rule 5 pick that would have to make the team to be kept. If he doesn&#8217;t stay on the 25-man roster (or the disabled list) he to be offered back to Kansas City. Given the competition and the conditions, it&#8217;s difficult to see how he manages to cling to this spot, but if he does, he&#8217;ll have definitely earned it.</p>
<h4>Mike Bolsinger</h4>
<p>Bolsinger pitched really well in Oklahoma City for the Dodgers&#8217; AAA affiliate last season. He&#8217;s out of options and the team risks losing him if he doesn&#8217;t make the majors. There&#8217;s one question that they have to ask themselves: is there another team whose last pitcher is a guy they&#8217;d be willing to replace with Bolsinger? If their answer is a yes then Toronto will likely try to sneak Bolsinger through waivers.</p>
<h4>Bo Schultz</h4>
<p>Bo Schultz is admittedly a fringy guy, but he&#8217;s done good work in Toronto apart from stumbling after a late season recall last year. Also out of options, Schultz is the sort of guy who has a fairly high probability of getting through late March waivers.</p>
<h3></h3>
<h3>Everyone Else</h3>
<p>Let&#8217;s not fail to mention that everyone here, if they stay healthy and in the organization, will likely pitch for the Blue Jays at some point during the year. We&#8217;ve gone through 20 names so far, but there are more. Other pitchers in the organization are veterans of the shuttle, are available on the 40 man roster, have major league experience, or will have impressed decision makers in the organization. Here are a few.</p>
<p>Dominic Leone was outstanding in Seattle in 2014, then failed to duplicate that success. The Blue Jays already demonstrated their faith in Ryan Tepera. Danny Barnes has a lot of buzz around him after a successful 2016 minor league season. Chris Smith was added to the 40 man roster late last season and got some time on the major league roster. These guys have some talent; they&#8217;re high risk, but not desperation options.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s the aforementioned spring training invite starters: Brett Oberholtzer, Lucas Harrell, and Jarrett Grube. If they show well in Buffalo, they might earn a look. However, if any of these guys get much more than a cup of coffee in the majors, the Blue Jays will have been in deep trouble.</p>
<p>Lastly there&#8217;s long time organizational arms Casey Lawrence and Will Browning. Browning lingered in big league camp last spring and Lawrence took a step up both velocity and results last season. Both might be dark horse candidates for a breakout moment. You can throw Leonel Campos in to that group as well. While he&#8217;s only just gotten to the Blue Jays, he has some breakout potential (albeit not much).</p>
<p>That&#8217;s 30 pitchers who might take the mound at least once for the Blue Jays this year. Most of them are respectable options, especially compared to the haphazard depth of Blue Jays seasons past. Bravo on this front, Ross Atkins. For the first time in a long time there will be credible choices that&#8217;ll have to be pushed to AAA. While that&#8217;ll stink for the pitcher in question, it&#8217;s certainly a good thing for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/27/breaking-down-the-blue-jays-strong-pitching-depth/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>THE STUFFIES! Part Two: Top Team Stuff and the Not-so-Stuffies</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/14/the-stuffies-part-two-top-team-stuff-and-the-not-so-stuffies/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/14/the-stuffies-part-two-top-team-stuff-and-the-not-so-stuffies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Oct 2016 16:33:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Rotation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7453</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to the Stuffies! Now that we&#8217;ve covered the Rookies of the Year, let&#8217;s take a look at what teams brought the best Stuff on the season. Best Starting Rotation Chicago Cubs In third place, we saw the Chicago Cubs &#8211; a team with an overpowering starting rotation that destroyed their competition. They were [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome back to the Stuffies! Now that we&#8217;ve covered the Rookies of the Year, let&#8217;s take a look at what teams brought the best Stuff on the season.</p>
<h2><b>Best Starting Rotation</b></h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/starting-rotation-stuffies-.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-7454" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/starting-rotation-stuffies--1024x666.png" alt="starting rotation stuffies" width="832" height="541" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In third place, we saw the Chicago Cubs &#8211; a team with an overpowering starting rotation that destroyed their competition. They were lead by the league leader in Stuff &#8211; Jake Arrieta. Jason Hammel also utilized a huge separation of 22” between his pitches, and 17% change in speed to help propel the Cubs into the Stuffy finals. </span></p>
<p><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Had the Dodgers managed to stay healthy in 2016, there is a very good chance they would have taken home the Stuffy title. Kershaw, and Maeda have Stuff that is in the 96%+ range &#8211; something that is truly elite. This was bolstered by a lot of above average Stuff starters (Urias, Anderson, McCarthy, and Kazmir), who just couldn’t put together enough innings to catch up to first place.</span></p>
<p><strong>Kansas City Royals</strong></p>
<p>And, in an extremely tight battle, it’s the Kansas City Royals who emerge as the 2016 Stuff Champions! Who needs to follow up a World Series win with another title run, when you have the honour of hoisting the very first Team Rotation Stuffy award, right?? The Royals were lead by the four horsemen of the AStuffcolypse &#8211; Ventura, Volquez, Kennedy, and Danny Duffy. These Stuff monsters all had Stuff values of greater than 1.0 &#8211; or better than 80% of all MLB pitchers. A worthy achievement, for sure. Congrats to the Royals on their Stuff title. The prospect of having to watch the Royals dominate again based on their starting pitching truly is vomit-inducing.</p>
<h2><b>Best Bullpen</b></h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/bullpen-stuffies-.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-7455" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/bullpen-stuffies--1024x683.png" alt="bullpen stuffies" width="834" height="556" /></a><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400">The top 3 teams for Bullpen Stuff really distanced themselves from the pack in 2016.</span></p>
<p><strong>Cincinatti Reds</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The third best Stuff belongs to a team that didn’t have a lot go well for them this season. The Cincinnati Reds wind up with a Bronze Stuffy, led by the power arm of Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen had an elite fastball at 96mph, and paired that with a 90+ mph breaking ball. </span></p>
<p><strong>Minnesota Twins</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Another team that will take solace in a Stuffy medal is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins take home the silver Stuffy for bullpens &#8211; with huge Stuff performances by Ryan Pressly, Trevor May, and Taylor Rogers leading the way. All of these power arms featured strong pitch mixes, and elite Stuff. I guess this just goes to show you &#8211; success is more about location, than it is about lighting up the radar gun!</span></p>
<p><b>Texas Rangers</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That brings us to our 2016 Bullpen Stuff champions &#8211; the Texas Rangers! When the Rangers aren’t pumping fastballs into the lower backs of hitters who hurt their poor little feelings, they’re usually locking down one run games on the backs of Matt Bush, Cesar Ramos, and Sam Dyson &#8211; all pitchers who had stuff better than 97% of all pitchers in the MLB. When looking at every relief pitcher on the Rangers, and turning off any sort of innings cut-off, their reliever with the 8th best numbers (Keone Kela) has Stuff at 1.02 &#8211; that’s still better than 81% of all other relievers. They are without a doubt, the undisputed Stuff champions of Major League Baseball Bullpens.</span></p>
<h2><b>Not So Stuffies</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With our strict selection criteria for the Stuffies, there were a total of 77 eligible starting pitchers included in the analysis. We didn’t include knuckleballers, or relief pitchers (too many guys that only throw one pitch &#8211; thus hurting them in the Stuff metric).</span></p>
<p><strong>Bartolo Colon</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">DYK: Bartolo takes 50 BP swings a day. His first home run wasn&#8217;t entirely an accident: <a href="https://t.co/yzfOND2FYH">https://t.co/yzfOND2FYH</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mets?src=hash">#Mets</a> <a href="https://t.co/OGhk7IKSi3">pic.twitter.com/OGhk7IKSi3</a></p>
<p>— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/729355873080872960">May 8, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s hard to argue with the results Bartolo Colon put up this year. 2016’s most memorable home run, and some hot nasty fastball action out of the bullpen and rotation. Bartolo looks like the type of guy that you’d make on the create-a-player in the show, when you’re trying to make your friends laugh at your create a team. I don’t want to be on big sexy’s bad side &#8211; Bartolo might not get love from the Stuff Metric, but let it be known I think he’s the man.</span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>This GIF gets me PUMPED UP. Get&#8217;m, <a href="https://twitter.com/CC_Sabathia">@CC_Sabathia</a>. Let&#8217;s see this every start. <a href="https://twitter.com/Yankees">@Yankees</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a> <a href="http://t.co/oCtaNCLaWK">pic.twitter.com/oCtaNCLaWK</a></p>
<p>— Mushin (@MetalMushin) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetalMushin/status/629675840482062336">August 7, 2015</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>CC Sabathia</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">CC Sabathia once ruled the roost (and, he still can generate some nasty stuff now and then). He pushed for Cy Youngs, put in 220+ inning seasons, and was the most highly sought after prize in all of free agency. However, his Stuff has fallen off completely, dropping to a very low level in 2016 &#8211; That is not an encouraging trend. Now in 2016, he sits near the bottom of the Stuff list.</span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GottaSeeIt?src=hash">#GottaSeeIt</a>: Jose Bautista hits his second home run of spring training, a three-run rocket off Doug Fister. <a href="https://t.co/YMYhY2ELtu">https://t.co/YMYhY2ELtu</a></p>
<p>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/710891248152928256">March 18, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Doug Fister</strong></p>
<p>Doug &#8220;Twisted&#8221; Fister &#8211; Doug Fister owns the honour of being the only starter on the Non-Stuffies list that weighs under 300 lbs. Is there a direct correlation between body mass and pitching effectiveness? David Wells sure doesn’t think so. Doug Fister now has a unique title &#8211; the least amount of Stuff in the MLB.</p>
<p>The appetizers are done! Next time, we finish things off with the big awards. The best Stuff of the year.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/14/the-stuffies-part-two-top-team-stuff-and-the-not-so-stuffies/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is the Sparkling Blue Jays Rotation Here to Stay?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/12/is-the-sparkling-rotation-an-apparition-or-is-it-here-to-stay/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/12/is-the-sparkling-rotation-an-apparition-or-is-it-here-to-stay/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2016 13:22:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Rotation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2531</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays offense has been terrible through the first 35 games of the season. There is no denying it. Save for a few arms, the bullpen has been a severe letdown. They have allowed inherited runners to score at an astounding pace. Wins that look all but locked up have slipped away. The Jays [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays offense has been terrible through the first 35 games of the season. There is no denying it. Save for a few arms, the bullpen has been a severe letdown. They have allowed inherited runners to score at an astounding pace. Wins that look all but locked up have slipped away. The Jays do not deserve to have a winning record (18-17). The fact that they do, is entirely attributable to the starting rotation. Once believed to be the weak link in the chain, the rotation has proved to be anything but. The brilliance the Jays rotation has displayed is drastically overshadowed by the inadequate performance from the rest of the team. Let&#8217;s compare Toronto’s rotation to the rest of the league and assess if this type of consistent performance is to be expected for the remainder of the season.</p>
<p>Generally speaking, a good starting pitcher will consistently go deep into ball games. A few things contribute to how deep a starter can get into the game. First, they have to be able to suppress the other team’s offense. Secondly, in this day and age where arbitrary pitch limits rule all, a pitcher has to be able to keep their pitch count down.</p>
<p>Thus far, the Jays rotation ranks first in innings pitched. They have pitched 227 innings through the first 35 games, which is 6 1/3 innings per night. The last time a Jays starter did not register at least seven innings of work was on May 3rd when Marco Estrada went six and was pulled for precautionary reasons (he had allowed two hits, one run and had thrown 88 pitches). So, how are the Jays starters drastically outperforming everyone’s expectations?</p>
<p>They certainly aren’t blowing anyone away by striking them out. The team ranks 27<sup>th</sup> in strikeouts per nine with 6.9. Other top rotations in the game are much closer to a strikeout per inning; Rays (9.4) are first, Dodgers (9.0), Nationals (8.6), Mets (8.5) and Giants (8.5) are all near the top of the league. The Jays can be mentioned in the same breath as the Astros (6.7), Rangers (6.7) and Brewers (6.4). It appears that Toronto is making a calculated tradeoff when it comes to strikeouts. They are effectively getting less strikeouts in return for more ground balls. The club is inducing ground balls over half of the time, 50.6% which is good for 2<span style="font-size: small"><span style="line-height: 20px">nd</span></span> in baseball. The ground ball brigade is led by Stroman and Sanchez, respectively they have induced ground balls at a 59.9% and 59.2% rate. This is good for 2nd and 4th in the entire league&#8230;pretty impressive for two pitchers whose average age is 24. As you can see in the graph below, not many teams are as pronounced as the Jays when it comes to getting as many grounders and as few strikeouts. The Jays sacrifice strikeouts in return for grounders but do they gain anything in addition to the grounders?</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/K9-v-GB.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-2581" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/K9-v-GB.png" alt="K9 v GB" width="629" height="378" /></a></p>
<p>So far this season, as a rotation, the team ranks 3rd in pitches per plate appearance (where lower is seen as a positive). As a unit, they throw 3.76 pitches/PA. This is most likely a direct relation to the ground ball philosophy the rotation has taken to heart. With the exception of R.A. Dickey, every member of the staff has a go-to pitch that displays severe downward motion. Stroman, Sanchez and Happ all throw the sinker consistently and Estrada has the changeup that he can go to whenever he wants. They throw it early in the count, put the pitch in the zone and the opposing team drills it into the ground. Opposing teams make contact against the rotation fairly consistently but with such late movement they can’t do much with it. This results in the substantial ground ball rate that we see as well as the low pitch count. This combination is essential for making it late into the game.</p>
<p>The Jays starters have apparently gotten &#8216;lucky&#8217; as well. They have the second lowest batting-average-for-balls-in-play or BABIP in the league at .265. I am a firm believer that a BABIP on either end of the spectrum can be explained in certain situations. For example, a fast hitter generally has a higher BABIP than most because he can beat out more infield singles than a hitter with average speed. Additionally, a defense can impact their pitcher&#8217;s BABIP. If a team&#8217;s defense can turn infield singles into outs or make frequent spectacular catches in the outfield, than their pitcher&#8217;s BABIP might be lower than most. The Jays infield defense is one of the best in the league, they eat up ground balls like a Dyson vacuum collects dirt. Having said that, no team had a pitching BABIP this low last season, so expect some degree of upwards regressions. Last season, the lowest pitching BABIP was .278, and the team who owned it was&#8230;.the Toronto Blue Jays. Across both the 2015 and 2016 campaign, the Jays have shown the ability to create weak contact from opposing hitters that generate ground balls. R.A. Dickey definitely contributes to the low BABIP as well, knuckleballers create weak contact resulting in a below average BABIP. I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if a few more balls found holes for the remainder of this season, but it don&#8217;t expect the regression to be substantial or even noticeable.</p>
<p>In conclusion, the Blue Jays rotation has seen tremendous success by adopting a ground ball philosophy that negates the allure of the strikeout. Each member of the rotation showcases a pitch that has extreme downward movement. They throw strikes early in the count, forcing the opposing team to swing and pound the ball into the dirt. By doing this, the Jays starters keeps their pitch count down, meaning they don&#8217;t hit the arbitrary 100 pitch limit early in the game. The infielders have proven that they can handle the steady stream of ground balls that are hit their way. All of these factors combined have resulted in the Jays starters leading the league in innings pitched and owning the sixth best ERA in baseball. If the rotation keeps inducing ground balls at a high rate, their performance should be sustain over the course of the year.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/12/is-the-sparkling-rotation-an-apparition-or-is-it-here-to-stay/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
