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	<title>Toronto &#187; Roberto Osuna</title>
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		<title>Roberto Osuna Traded to Houston Astros for Ken Giles And Two Prospects</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/30/report-roberto-osuna-traded-to-houston-astros-for-ken-giles-and-maybe-more/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Jul 2018 21:42:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ken giles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[In a shocking move, the Blue Jays Monday have reportedly traded suspended closer Roberto Osuna to the Houston Astros. Source: #Astros get Osuna from #BlueJays. &#8212; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2018 Osuna has been on the restricted list since being charged for domestic violence in May, and has been serving a 75 game suspension [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a shocking move, the Blue Jays Monday have reportedly traded suspended closer Roberto Osuna to the Houston Astros.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Astros</a> get Osuna from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a>.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1024039243109330944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Osuna has been on the restricted list since being charged for domestic violence in May, and has been serving a 75 game suspension retroactive to his being placed on the restricted list. Ever since being placed on the restricted list for that charge, speculation has swirled around what the Blue Jays were going to do with the once star reliever. The <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-gm-ross-atkins-expects-roberto-osuna-back-lineup-suspension/">initial comments from Ross Atkins</a> were that the 23 year old righty would return as the closer, though that is no longer the case as Osuna will now be suiting up for the Houston Astros when he&#8217;s eligible to return on August 4th.</p>
<p>It was quite the fall from grace for young hurler, who was seen as a long term, core piece of the team&#8217;s bullpen, ever since his rapid ascent to the closing role in 2015. And while the Blue Jays no longer have that core piece, they also no longer have to deal with the potential public relations problem that having an alleged domestic abuser on the team would be.</p>
<p>Osuna refused to comment to the media following the trade, per Sean Addis, who was covering the Bisons game.</p>
<p>As for what the Jays will get back:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ken Giles going from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Astros</a> to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> in Osuna deal, source says.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1024041025453649920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Ken Giles is 27 year old reliever with some experience closing, who has been fantastic in his career prior to this season. He has spent the majority of his career with the Astros. Though his current ERA is a career high 4.99 and he has been sent to the minors following an outburst after being removed from a game, his track record suggests an excellent late inning option for a Jays team that has run through many of those in Osuna&#8217;s absence. The Athletic&#8217;s Eno Sarris has a theory as to why Giles may be struggling- his slider has fallen off a cliff (and not in the fun/valuable way):</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Something really weird happened to Ken Giles’ slider this year. It’s obvious why Toronto is doing this: find the slider again, get a top 15 reliever in K-BB since 2015. The Astros side&#8230; <a href="https://t.co/G0loYsbti9">pic.twitter.com/G0loYsbti9</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Eno Sarris (@enosarris) <a href="https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1024042898445062145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Giles still has an elite K/BB ratio of  this year of 10.33 which comes thanks to an incredible three walks allowed in 30 2/3 innings. With the improved control and potential for a return of his plus breaking ball, Giles could basically be for the Jays what Osuna was from 2015-2017.</p>
<p>UPDATES: Straight from the Official Twitter account, the Jays are getting two more players:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OFFICIAL: We&#39;ve acquired RHP Ken Giles, minor league RHP Hector Perez and minor league RHP David Paulino from the <a href="https://twitter.com/astros?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Astros</a> in exchange for RHP Roberto Osuna. <a href="https://t.co/JG98oa0cXj">pic.twitter.com/JG98oa0cXj</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1024048574152298496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 30, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The Jays are getting two additional pitching prospects, Hector Perez and David Paulino. Perez is 10th on <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=hou">MLB.com&#8217;s Astros&#8217; prospects list</a>, and is a 22 year old righthander currently with the Astros&#8217; AA affiliate, having been signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2014. Here is some of what MLB.com had to say about Perez: <em>&#8220;Opponents struggle to make solid contact against Perez, who has four pitches that can grade as plus or better but lose effectiveness when he can&#8217;t tame them. He&#8217;s athletic enough to figure out control and command, but his delivery has timing issues that have prevented him from ever throwing consistent strikes. His walk rate jumped from 4.5 per nine innings in his first two seasons to 6.5 in his third, a sign that he&#8217;s more likely to become a late-inning reliever than a frontline starter.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Paulino is a 24 year old who spent some of the season in AAA, and came to the Astros in a 2013 deal with the Tigers. Though he ranks 23rd on MLB.com&#8217;s list, he was 8th on <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/36096/houston-astros-top-10-prospects-forrest-whitley-kyle-tucker/">Baseball Prospectus&#8217; list prior to the season.</a> From BP, the positives on Paulino:  &#8220;<em>Paulino has shown Top 101 stuff on the mound throughout his minor league career. He has a plus fastball that gets extreme plane due to his height and extension. He has a full four-pitch mix with two useable breakers. The curve is potentially plus. The change isn’t too bad. He already has major league time.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>While this isn&#8217;t the return they might have gotten for Osuna prior to the season, the Jays did well from a baseball perspective to add a couple more solid pitching prospects as well as a bona fide major league reliever, making the best out of a potentially nightmarish situation.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Which of 2017&#8217;s Disappointing Blue Jays are Poised to Bounce Back?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/23/which-2017s-disappointing-blue-jays-are-poised-to-bounce-back/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Oct 2017 13:59:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[It should go without saying at this point, but just in case you weren’t paying attention for the last six months or so, not a lot went right for the Blue Jays this season. It could also be said that way more than expected did go right for the team in 2015 and 2016, but [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It should go without saying at this point, but just in case you weren’t paying attention for the last six months or so, not a lot went right for the Blue Jays this season. It could also be said that way more than expected did go right for the team in 2015 and 2016, but there’s no denying that 2017 saw a number of declines and poor fortunes that <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/17/the-season-that-was-exaggerated-oversold-and-bound-to-disappoint/" target="_blank">we either didn’t expect to see or willfully ignored</a>.</p>
<p>Rather than go over the current state of baseball, which would involve either talking about random Twitter beefs or giving even marginal praise to the recently-eliminated Yankees, I decided to wade through the muck of last season to catch up on a few Jays who were letdowns and look at whether a bounce back could be in order.</p>
<h3>Aaron Sanchez</h3>
<p>This one is essentially a free space, as Sanchez was limited to just 36 innings due to persistent blister issues. He had poor numbers across his eight starts, no doubt helped along by his finger troubles. Sanchez surrendered career-highs with 10.5 H/9 and 5.0 BB/9 and watched his strikeout rate sink to boot. For a guy with a deadly sinker, Sanchez also achieved just a 48 percent ground ball rate, this after topping 55 percent in each of his first three seasons.</p>
<p>Even though things weren’t going great in general, he still had room for some rotten luck. His HR/FB ratio jumped from 10.7 to 17.1% and he was stuck with a BABIP of .310 despite no substantial change in the amount of hard contact he gave up. Somehow, Sanchez’s 5.71 ERA actually outperformed his Deserved Run Average (DRA), which sat at a ghastly 6.96 mark.</p>
<p>In fact, Sanchez actually had the worst season of any Blue Jays pitcher by WARP, accumulating a -0.56 mark in his abbreviated campaign. J.P. Howell was at 0.14. Even Jason Grilli was at 0.17. If Sanchez can get his fingers back to full strength, there’s plenty of reason to believe that he’s going to return to form in 2018. If nothing else, he almost has to get better results than these.</p>
<h3>Kendrys Morales</h3>
<p>Morales hit a few timely early-season homers when the rest of the batters were struggling &#8211; and the fact that we can point to his season achievement as “being the best of a bad bunch for a couple minutes” will tell you most of what you need to know. With a line of .258/.308/.445, it was a major letdown from Toronto’s supposed stalwart at DH. Do not be fooled by the 28 homers and 85 RBI – this was a dreadful season by just about any measure that goes past the surface level.</p>
<p>Among 206 hitters with 400 or more plate appearances, Morales’ WARP of -.50 put him 193<sup>rd</sup>overall. His TAv of .254 puts him at a much more palatable 166<sup>th</sup> on the same list, but we’re not going over a very high bar here.</p>
<p>Are there signs of hope? Maybe, sort of. Morales has rebounded from ugly seasons before. In 2014 he posted -0.6 WARP in 39 games with Minnesota and tacked on another -0.2 in 59 games with the Mariners. He followed that up with years of 2.3 and 1.2 WARP in Kansas City. Additionally, Morales continued to hit the ball incredibly hard. Among players with at least 150 batted ball events, Morales was ninth in the league with an average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour.</p>
<p>Now for the bad part. Morales hit far more grounders than he did in Kansas City, meaning his hard hit balls had much lower chances of turning into hits than they did in the past two years. He continued to have a hard time with breaking pitches and saw curveballs on 16 percent of pitches this season, well up from the 11.8 percent he saw in 2016. How much of a hard time, you ask? Morales posted a career-worst season in terms of contact rate (the percentage of pitches swung on where contact is made; 71 percent against a career average of 75.8 percent), zone contact rate (81 percent in 2017 with a career average of 86 percent) while also shattering his career high in terms of swinging strike rate (29 percent easily surpassed his previous career-worst of 25.7 percent from 2012).</p>
<p>At age 34, hoping for a complete turnaround in so many areas is asking for a lot.</p>
<p>Morales’s presence on the roster has suddenly become an unavoidable obstacle following Justin Smoak’s breakout. With Smoak now deserving full-time at bats at first, Steve Pearce loses playing time at one spot he was signed to shore up. That forces the injury-prone Pearce into the outfield, which is bad news for everyone involved. Given the need to keep players like Pearce and Josh Donaldson healthy, the team would be wise to open up DH at bats for both. Suddenly the Jays have $23 million on the books for a part-time DH, lest they choose to play him regularly for the rest of his decline.</p>
<p>With few attractive ways to offload this contract, there’s going to be some more days off in Morales’ future. Getting less playing time might be better for the on field product, but it’s far from ideal for a team with oft-discussed payroll limitations.</p>
<h3>Kevin Pillar</h3>
<p>Remember when Kevin Pillar talked the talk about <a title="How Kevin Pillar Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Plate Discipline" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/29/how-kevin-pillar-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-plate-discipline/" target="_blank">changing his approach</a>? And then when he did it for a little bit? Well things didn’t go so great the rest of the way.</p>
<p>He posted OBPs of .339 and .328 in April/March and May, drawing 15 walks in his first 51 games. Pillar would then go on to walk 18 times over his last 103 games of the year, posting an OBP of .282 in that time – well down from his career .302 mark. That list of hitters with 400 plate appearances? The one where Morales ranked 193<sup>rd</sup>? Pillar was 187<sup>th</sup> with a WARP of -.05. This all happened despite Pillar setting a career high in zone swing rate and posting a sterling 93.3 percent zone contact rate.</p>
<p>Pillar’s reality isn’t exactly an untenable situation, but the sudden decline of so many other spots in the lineup around him only highlighted the problem. When this team is at full health, Pillar really won’t need to be occupying a high-profile spot in the lineup. Of course, counting on this particular roster (as currently constructed, at least) to stay at full health for long might be a big ask.</p>
<p>Still, Teoscar Hernandez’s presence should at least give the Jays a viable alternative if they insist on going with a traditional leadoff man. Lord knows they need it after Pillar logged 270 of his 632 plate appearances atop the order. For reference, Pillar made just 184 plate appearances from the bottom third of the order. We often wring our hands far too much about lineup construction, but this is pretty blatant.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, that first chunk of the season looks like a mirage; a window that let us look at a better world for about 50 games of bliss (if you focus on his production only and not, you know, everything else). You hope Pillar will bounce back in the sense that his last two thirds of the year were well under his career numbers, but it’d be silly to count on a return to the .330-plus OBP levels unless there’s a noticeable, sustained change in approach. Here’s hoping that it sticks next time around.</p>
<h3>Roberto Osuna</h3>
<p>Osuna presents the most curious case of the bunch, though there is a pretty quick and convenient explanation for his second half struggles.</p>
<p>The first half of that story, however, is that Osuna actually had a very strong season by several advanced measures. He posted a career-best 2.1 WARP in a career-low 64 innings. He also posted career-bests in BB/9 (1.3), K/9 (11.7), ground ball rate (47 percent) and HR/9 (a minuscule 0.4). Digging deeper, he also posted his personal bests in out-of-zone swing rate, swinging strike rate and contact rate.</p>
<p>Things begin to diverge with his zone rate – simply the percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone. After two years above 50 percent, Osuna slipped down to just 43.9 percent this season. On pitches he did land in the zone, contact was made on over 80 percent of them – up from 78 percent a year ago and just 73 percent as a rookie.</p>
<p>Piecing that all together, it seems like Osuna got lots of swings and misses on his pitches, but primarily on those that were out of the zone. Hitters were able to make contact with anything in the zone better than ever before, which brings us to the elephant in the room.</p>
<p>Osuna famously lost some fastball velocity in July and August, leading to a handful of painful blown saves and close losses where the team’s previously-dependable closer wilted at the worst possible time. Those rough outings followed stretches <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/14/whats-up-with-roberto-osunas-fastball/" target="_blank">where Osuna was called on multiple times with limited rest</a>, as he averaged just 1.2 days off between appearances while working in 21 games from the All Star break to the end of August.</p>
<p>His fastball velocity actually increased in September and October when he averaged 3.4 days between outings. Though he certainly would’ve traded the days off for a spot in the hunt, nobody benefited more than Osuna from the team’s quick exit from the playoff picture. Hopefully a long winter (with no World Baseball Classic this time) keeps him a bit fresher.</p>
<p>The anatomy of a losing season is deep and complex and the front office should be cooking up all sorts of fixes for the offseason. While newcomers, either promotions from the lower levels or new faces from other organizations, are always a welcome sight after a disappointing campaign, there’s a few reasons to believe that some of Toronto’s disappointments in 2017 will come back looking a little more like their usual selves. This team is going to need some new blood, no doubt – but for a team with visions of retooling on the fly, every little bit helps.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/31/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-orioles-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Aug 2017 14:39:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fly Balls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home runs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Beckham]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13225</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski How is Tim Beckham Doing This? Blue Jay A – 5.6 BB%/15.1 K%/13HR/14SB – 8.0 VORP Oriole B – 5.8 BB%/28.3 K%/ 18HR/ 6SB – 29.1 VORP As you can probably guess from the title of this section, Oriole B is Orioles’ shortstop Tim Beckham. Blue Jay [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<h3>How is Tim Beckham Doing This?</h3>
<p>Blue Jay A – 5.6 BB%/15.1 K%/13HR/14SB – 8.0 VORP<br />
Oriole B – 5.8 BB%/28.3 K%/ 18HR/ 6SB – 29.1 VORP</p>
<p>As you can probably guess from the title of this section, Oriole B is Orioles’ shortstop Tim Beckham. Blue Jay A is Kevin Pillar. Despite posting a similar walk rate and a K rate 13.2% higher than Pillar’s, Beckham has managed to make himself significantly more offensively valuable in 55 fewer at-bats this season. Beckham has been especially hot since being traded to Baltimore, hitting .393/.418/.667 since August 1st.</p>
<p>The O’s shortstop and former first-overall pick who was acquired at the non-waiver trade deadline is having what may be a breakout season at age-27, slashing .295/.341/.477. Given his problematic plate approach, is his breakout sustainable or is he benefiting from the same Orioles’ devil magic that seemingly keeps them in contention no matter how many times they trot Ubaldo Jimenez out to the mound?</p>
<p>Despite his contact problems, Beckham has always managed to run high batting averages on balls in play, posting a career BABIP of .352. This year, Beckham’s BABIP is sitting at .386, uncharacteristically high even for him. Given his exit velocity sits a tick above average at 88.6 mph, Beckham has been benefiting from some batted ball luck. The only other change in his offensive profile is that Beckham has managed to significantly cut his infield fly ball percentage – from 12.8% in 2016 and a career average 7.1% all the way down to 4.3%, well below the league average of 9.6%. For reference, if you’re wondering why Pillar has been so much less valuable, he pops up at a 15.3% clip.</p>
<p>Can Beckham keep up his torrid pace? Definitely not. When some of his batted balls stop falling for hits, his average (and OBP with it) are going to regress. But if he is able to keep minimizing his infield flyball percentage, he may be able to keep some of the offensive gains he’s made this season. Coupled with his defense at shortstop, the Orioles will definitely take it. And everyone else will continue to shake our heads.</p>
<h3>Get Your Outfielders Ready</h3>
<p>Thursday night’s matchup involves two pitchers who operate with nearly identical strategies. Of all qualified starters in 2017, Marco Estrada and Jeremy Hellickson rank 2nd and 6th respectively in fly ball percentage. Both use nearly the exact same pitch mix, with their primary weapons being the fastball and changeup, while also turning to the curveball and cutter on occasion. While both have had success in the past, each pitcher has also shared in their struggles during the 2017 campaign.</p>
<p>Hellickson was a trade deadline acquisition for Baltimore, one whose mediocre campaign with the Phillies has taken a turn for the worst since donning the orange and black. In five starts for the Orioles, the right-hander has tossed 29 and 2/3 innings with an ERA of 5.46. His home run issues have become even more pronounced, giving up seven home runs over the same stretch. On the year, he has given up 1.84 home runs per nine innings as his increased fly ball percentage in comparison to years past has lead to a new career high in home runs allowed.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Estrada has been no stranger to struggles of his own this year. Over his 151 and 2/3 innings pitched he has produced an ERA of 5.04 giving up home runs at a rate of 1.42 per nine innings. Despite this, he has pitched better as of late, lasting at least 6 innings in five of his last six starts. Over the same period, he has tossed an ERA of 3.86 over 37 and 1/3 innings, striking out 30 and walking 12.</p>
<p>Adding to the potential fireworks are both teams’ tendency to slug fly balls. This could be especially troublesome for Estrada, considering that Baltimore currently leads baseball in xWOBA on fly balls at .458. While Toronto sits down in 20th by the same measure with a .412 xWOBA, they are also 13th in the majors in home runs. Combining these two teams’ offensive firepower with extreme fly ball pitchers could potentially lead to quite the power display Thursday night.</p>
<h3>Osuna or Later His Season Will End</h3>
<p>Roberto Osuna is still at the back of the bullpen, saving games more often than not for the Toronto Blue Jays. And, despite his success (which has been interrupted by both bad luck and poor execution lately), it probably isn’t going to be that way much longer.</p>
<p>Osuna is not complaining publicly about any injury. That’s nice, but it’s also clearly not entirely honest. Velocity is a great indicator of possible injury concerns with pitchers, as is exit velocity with batters. It’s not the only thing, but if you can’t move 100% comfortably through your motion, it follows you can’t hit 100% of your speed.</p>
<p>Osuna had a lowered average velocity to start the year, but started to loosen up a bit in June of this year, observe the Brooks Baseball graph:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13226" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture1.png" alt="Picture1" width="843" height="433" /></a></p>
<p>Notable, though is that even during his best month in 2017 he was not throwing as hard as his worst month in 2016. And then in July and August, he dipped below 95 mph average and has continued sliding.</p>
<p>Instead of average velocity, we can check max velocity. If the average is lower, but the max is pretty close to the Osuna of old, we could speculate that that’s a strategic decision to mix speeds more and disrupt the timing of hitters.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13227" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture2.png" alt="Picture2" width="815" height="386" /></a></p>
<p>So there it is. Or isn’t really. Roberto can try and reach back for a little something extra, and what he gets is 96mph. Only a year ago that was 99mph. We could look at the sudden plethora of cutters and two seam fastballs as other evidence that throwing the hard four seamer is not easy for him anymore, but the velocity drop is probably argument enough when it’s 3 mph.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna is not right, and in a lost season it’s only a matter of time before the team has to decide to do the right thing and look to the long term. If Roberto Osuna isn’t asked to answer the bell in a save situation this series, it’s not his fault, it’s a decision that’s been a long time coming.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What&#8217;s Up with Roberto Osuna&#8217;s fastball?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/14/whats-up-with-roberto-osunas-fastball/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/14/whats-up-with-roberto-osunas-fastball/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Aug 2017 10:11:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12906</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While the Blue Jays remain improbably close to the second Wild Card (at least in terms of games behind), the team continues the tenuous balancing act of having some of its most dependable and relied upon talent excel and flounder simultaneously. In a season where the entire roster has yet to get on an upswing [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While the Blue Jays remain improbably close to the second Wild Card (at least in terms of games behind), the team continues the tenuous balancing act of having some of its most dependable and relied upon talent excel and flounder simultaneously. In a season where the entire roster has yet to get on an upswing at the same time, one of the few truly consistent positive presences was Roberto Osuna. Until lately, of course. The most bankable, expected-to-be-great Blue Jay has faltered as they sit unexpectedly within reach of another postseason berth.</p>
<p>Though Osuna’s blowups have been mostly contained to three horrific outings, he has seen a dip in velocity since the calendar flipped to June. The current suspected culprit of his troubles is his fastball, as he has shown a tendency to turn away from the pitch as its velocity dips. That’s also a chicken-and-egg debate, but any way you slice it, he’s using his fastball less and it has been less effective when he’s calling on it. Pitchers are humans and like every one of us they will fall prey to stretches where they just don’t have it. The turn of phrase “lost his fastball” is a bit on the nose, but that’s where we stand at the moment.</p>
<p>Still, Osuna has been so dominant since he arrived that even this blip on the radar, assuming that’s what it turns out to be, has stuck out like a sore thumb. Is it dumb luck coinciding with a typical dip in velocity? Nope. In his first two years he has ended up at the same level if not a tick stronger. And that goes for almost all his pitches, not just the fastball:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaVeloGif.gif"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12907" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaVeloGif.gif" alt="OsunaVeloGif" width="720" height="480" /></a></p>
<p>Could it be that Osuna always cuts down on his fastball usage over the course of the season? Maybe we’re just noticing it more since it’s coming with some high-profile missteps. Let’s take a look at his pitch mix through August for his three seasons in the league:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaAugust.gif"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12910" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaAugust.gif" alt="OsunaAugust" width="720" height="480" /></a></p>
<p>So again, no &#8212; at least not to the extent we&#8217;ve seen this season. If we expand his first two years to the full season, however, it suddenly looks like this:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaFreqGif.gif"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12908" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaFreqGif.gif" alt="OsunaFreqGif" width="720" height="480" /></a></p>
<p>So yes, Osuna does use the fastball a bit less over the course of the season. This year he just happens to be going to his other pitches far more and far sooner in the year. There could be multiple reasons for that and the one that pops into mind first is that he’s playing his own profile against hitters who’ve mentally accounted for Osuna relying so heavily on the fastball for most of the year, especially in those Septembers and Octobers. A far less strategic one is that he’s simply tiring out this time around. So how about workload?</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaWorkload.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12911 " src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaWorkload.jpg" alt="OsunaWorkload" width="420" height="199" /></a></p>
<p>While he’s doing less work in terms of innings pitched, batters faced and sheer number of pitches in 2017, we might be onto something when looking at the time between each of Osuna’s appearances. It should be noted that those numbers are all through August 8<sup>th</sup> of their respective years and I’ve excluded the appearances that either opened the season or came after the All Star break from the 3+ Rest column. You can add two to each if you&#8217;d like.</p>
<p>This year, Osuna has had six stretches of three appearances or more where he received either zero or one day of rest between each game. He also had two separate streaks of five and six games with those rest parameters. Through the same date in 2016 he had five streaks of three games or more but maxed out at four appearances with one day or less of rest in between each. In 2015, Osuna had only four streaks like that, and none of them extended beyond three games through this point in the year.</p>
<p>As for those two five-plus game ‘busy stretches’ he’s had this year, Osuna was effective throughout the first but followed it up with a 0.1 inning, 2 H, 1 ER performance against Atlanta after two days of rest. The second included his first two implosions against the Angels and White Sox, both on one day of rest. That streak was snapped by two days off in between the end of the White Sox series and his save in Houston on August 5th, but the August 6<sup>th</sup> game was his ugly 0.2 inning, 5 H, 4 ER showing.</p>
<p>To make matters worse, the 8/5 game finished at 10:26 ET while the 8/6 game was a 2:10 PM start that ended at 5:26 ET, meaning that Osuna warmed up, pitched in a high leverage spot, cooled down and then did it all again within 24 hours. He threw 11 pitches in the first game and 21 in the second.</p>
<p>In the first game, his four-seam fastballs clocked in at 94.3, 94.8, 93.9, 95.2, and 93.8 mph.</p>
<p>In the second, they very clearly were not up to snuff. His four-seamers came across the plate at 92.5, 94.3 and 94.0 mph. And yes, he only threw three of them.</p>
<p>That begs the follow up question, is Osuna’s fastball usage prone to dip when he’s getting lots of action? It seems counterintuitive that he’d go away from his bread and butter, but perhaps he knows that his fastball simply isn’t as effective when his appearances are stacked up together. Let’s take an isolated look his 2017 game-to-game fastball usage as a percentage, with his three-game busy streaks noted by green dots and the five and six-gamers by red dots at both start and end.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaFB.jpeg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12909" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/OsunaFB.jpeg" alt="OsunaFB" width="720" height="480" /></a></p>
<p>While there’s not a super clear pattern, Osuna has only ended one of his busy stretches by throwing his fastball more frequently at the end of his run than the beginning, and it was his first of the year that occurred from April 27<sup>th</sup> to April 30<sup>th</sup>. There are some totals vs. percentages issues there as well, but it suggests that he’s looking to cut down on the heaters when he’s used a lot in a short time frame.</p>
<p>It might not be that he’s pitching more, but that he’s doing more of his pitching in concentrated periods. Our own Dr. Mike Sonne might be able to shed some light on pitching fatigue in this situation, but there&#8217;s no doubt that Osuna is seeing an unprecedented dip in fastball velocity despite seeing less work overall.</p>
<p>If Osuna knows &#8211; and there’s no reason to suspect that he doesn’t &#8211; that his fastball slows down after frequent use then it’s entirely possible that he’s shaking it off more often, regardless of what gets said after the game. Luckily for him, there’s enough spread in both velocity and movement between his other three primary pitches that he can still be effective if his fastball velocity dips down into the 92 MPH range. He achieves that to such a degree that there’s no great comparable in terms of MPH and pitch mix out there, though Bud Norris and Dominic Leone are at least near the same ballpark.</p>
<p>So is it a problem going forward? Possibly. A few things line up that’d make you think fatigue is the culprit and there isn’t much else to say that doesn’t venture into speculation about his health and mechanics. He doesn’t need to be moved into low leverage work or get a few days to clear his mind. Osuna needs an extra day or two to just rest his arm. At that point, any mental boost would just be gravy.</p>
<p>Either way, the Blue Jays should start pumping the brakes on Osuna. It’s tough to hear in the midst of a playoff chase but the team simply needs him to be at his elite-level best, and that guy probably isn’t coming back if he keeps being used on short rest so frequently.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 69: On a Wing and a (Position) Player</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/09/artificial-turf-wars-ep-69-on-a-wing-and-a-position-player/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Aug 2017 09:45:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TurfPod]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 69 Greg and Josh break down the recent news and stories from Blue Jays land with discussions on Roberto Osuna&#8217;s struggles/odd pitch usage, Josh Donaldson and Marco Estrada&#8217;s returns to form, Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins&#8217; mirror struggles/successes, a banged up rotation and its effects on the bullpen, and a helping hand from former [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 69</strong></p>
<p>Greg and Josh break down the recent news and stories from Blue Jays land with discussions on Roberto Osuna&#8217;s struggles/odd pitch usage, Josh Donaldson and Marco Estrada&#8217;s returns to form, Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins&#8217; mirror struggles/successes, a banged up rotation and its effects on the bullpen, and a helping hand from former friend Francisco Liriano. They also answer a slew of listener questions, give a Do Over to the Texas Rangers broadcast, and hand out a Cliché of the Week. </p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/RangersPod/status/892839164755968002" target="_blank">The photo in this tweet</a> is the subject of this week&#8217;s Do Over</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/019/show_10192657_2017_08_09_04_23_14.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/019/show_10192657_2017_08_09_04_23_14.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Top 10 Blue Jays by Trade Deadline Value (No. 1 &#8211; 5)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/26/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-5-1/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/26/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-5-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jul 2017 10:35:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vladimir Guerrero]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12570</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is part two of the Blue Jays deadline 2017 top-ten trade value series. The introduction, as well as the tenth through sixth most valuable, went up at BP Toronto yesterday. As a brief recap before, your tenth to sixth most valuable Blue Jays trade assets: #10: RHP Joe Biagini #9: 2B Devon Travis #8: 1B Justin [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is part two of the Blue Jays deadline 2017 top-ten trade value series. The introduction, as well as the tenth through sixth most valuable, went up at <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12567&amp;utm_content=buffer992d4&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer">BP Toronto yesterday.</a> As a brief recap before, your tenth to sixth most valuable Blue Jays trade assets:</p>
<p>#10: RHP Joe Biagini</p>
<p>#9: 2B Devon Travis</p>
<p>#8: 1B Justin Smoak</p>
<p>#7: SS Bo Bichette</p>
<p>#6: LHP J.A. Happ</p>
<p>And now into the top five most valuable Blue Jays.</p>
<p><strong>#5: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107184">3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/5-Guerrero.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12588" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/5-Guerrero.png" alt="#5 Guerrero" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>This was an appropriate spot for a break because when I was first getting started on this exercise, identifying the five most valuable trade chips in the organization was easy. While it may not appear that way on a numerical list, you could run the St. Lawrence River through the gulf between Happ and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero is one of the most highly regarded prospects in all of baseball, placing 13th on the mid-season list at <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224">Baseball Prospectus</a> and an astounding <em>second overall </em>at <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#6qXSA461V3KqGhzi.97">Baseball America</a>. These types of prospects simply don&#8217;t get moved very often, and when they do—see Yoan Moncada for Chris Sale and Eloy Jimenez for Jose Quintana—it&#8217;s for a cost controlled elite major league talent. In fact, Guerrero has a strong case for being number four on the list. If he shows even a glimmer against Florida State League pitching over the final six weeks of the minor league season, that leap will be a much easier call on the offseason iteration of the Blue Jays trade value series here at BP Toronto.</p>
<p>It can sometimes be challenging trying to compare minor leaguers to major leaguers using the same scale, as it feels a bit awkward trying to assign value to someone so far from the show. <a href="http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/">Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli of The Point of Pittsburgh</a> have developed and tweaked a model over the years to help make that comparison a bit easier to digest. The whole article is worth your time, but in short, they have divided historical top 100 prospects into hitters and pitchers, and then further subdivided them into buckets based upon specific ranges of rankings. For each of these ten buckets, they provide the average WAR and surplus value over the six years of team control, as well as some bust metrics (less than 3 WAR; 0 or less WAR).</p>
<p>Using Baseball Prospectus&#8217; rankings, the average prospect in Guerrero&#8217;s bucket has produced 13.0 WAR and 62 million in surplus value over the six team-controlled years. Buying into Baseball America&#8217;s #2 overall ranking, those numbers jump to 15.3 WAR and nearly 74 million in surplus value. Only 7 of the 96 from those two buckets produced 0 or less WAR, so historically, someone like Guerrero has more than a 90 percent chance of becoming <em>something</em>. Comparatively, hitters in Bo Bichette&#8217;s bucket averaged 8.1 WAR and 38 million in surplus value. In other words, despite being ranked as the top two prospect in the minor league system and only two spots apart on this list, it wouldn&#8217;t be a stretch to say Guerrero has twice the value as a trade asset. Hence the gulf.</p>
<p><strong>#4: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56185">3B Josh Donaldson</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/4-Donaldson.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12589" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/4-Donaldson.png" alt="#4 Donaldson" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Josh Donaldson has garnered the most attention as the poster boy for a potential rebuild in Toronto, but in reality, despite having a Most Valuable Player trophy with his name on it, a .291/.387/.559 slash line, and 19.8 WARP over his last three full seasons, he may actually be only the fourth most valuable trade asset the Blue Jays have.</p>
<p>This ranking isn&#8217;t a slight against Josh, as even with his struggles since returning from the disabled list he&#8217;s clearly still the <em>best </em>player in the organization. Unfortunately, Donaldson has two key factors working against his value. First, he&#8217;ll be a free agent following the 2018 season—a year in which he&#8217;ll be paid in the neighbourhood of 25 million for his fourth trip through arbitration. Any interested team would have to be both willing and capable of stomaching that short term salary and the long term cost of elite young talent in order to have Josh Donaldson play upwards of 200 regular season games and participate in potentially two postseason runs in their uniform. The second is that, while a great story, Donaldson&#8217;s epiphany and renaissance as a hitter led to his service clock starting much later than it does for most players. After 2018, he&#8217;ll be entering free agency looking ahead to his age-33 season, meaning that Donaldson isn&#8217;t necessarily the type of guy that a team pays an exorbitant cost to acquire so that they can throw a lengthy extension on him, too.</p>
<p>As far as I can tell, recent comparables for a trade of an MVP-caliber hitter with 1.5 years of control remaining don&#8217;t exist. These days, players like this simply don&#8217;t get traded. Pitchers live in a completely different market; there are 150 rotation spots and even more bullpen jobs across baseball, but there are only thirty spots at each position and only a handful of teams that would match up on both need and the ability to pay. With such a narrow pool of suitors for elite position players on the verge of free agency, opposing teams are likely wary of bidding against themselves, leading to lesser offers. Consequently, rather than enraging their fan base and dealing their star for a pittance—like J.D. Martinez, as one example—front offices choose to hold out hope that an extension with their star will eventually be reached. In a vacuum he may be the fourth most valuable trade asset, but history suggests that Donaldson and the Blue Jays are likely to ride things out for the at least the next two years regardless.</p>
<p><strong>#3: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68997">RHP Roberto Osuna</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/3-Osuna.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12590" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/3-Osuna.png" alt="#3 Osuna" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>With the chronic blister and fingernail issues that Aaron Sanchez has battled this season, Roberto Osuna could make a legitimate case as the second most valuable trade asset in the organization. What kept him behind Sanchez, at least in my book, was that you could throw Sanchez in the bullpen tomorrow, tell him to exclusively throw 98 to 99 mile per hour two-seam fastballs, and he&#8217;d probably be 80 or 90 percent of the reliever Osuna is. Even with the optimism from the fan base about moving Osuna to the rotation, I&#8217;m not sure he could do an equally similar impersonation of Sanchez&#8217; 2016 season if the roles were reversed. But Osuna doesn&#8217;t need to throw 200 innings a year to be an extraordinarily valuable trade asset. The 22-year old has settled in as one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game today, and is on pace for a career-high 2.2 WARP this season.</p>
<p>Relievers are the most commonly moved asset, but few have the combination of dominance, team control and experience that can Osuna boast. He&#8217;s controllable through 2020 with three arbitration years forthcoming, and while they&#8217;ll be at less than market value due to the nature of the process itself, the salaries won&#8217;t be inconsequential with his ever increasing save totals. And while most of us have moved past this primitive line of thought, some may still see value in Osuna being a &#8220;proven playoff closer&#8221;. To wit, the Blue Jays pushed into the American League Championship Series in Osuna&#8217;s rookie and sophomore campaigns, and he has answered the bell with a career 1.04 ERA/2.22 FIP across 14 career postseason games. Those were the highest of high leverage situations, and Osuna showed no qualms with being deployed in any type of situation by manager John Gibbons.</p>
<p>Just last year both Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller got moved for massive prospect packages, but Chapman had just a couple of months remaining on his deal and Miller was owed about 20 million over two and a half years on his. Osuna has achieved their level of performance on the field, but offers far more team control with the added bonus of going year-to-year as protection against injury. Looking back another seven months prior for a third comparable, the Phillies moved Ken Giles to the Houston Astros in another blockbuster. Giles had the dominance and team control, but not the ninth inning experience. Still, he landed Mark Appel (when he was still well regarded) and Vince Velasquez in Philadelphia, as well as a handful of other lesser pieces. For Shapiro and Atkins to seriously consider moving Osuna, any package would have to dwarf what those arms got. Incredibly, it&#8217;s not a stretch to think someone might just do it.</p>
<p><strong>#2: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67107">RHP Aaron Sanchez</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/2-Sanchez.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12591" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/2-Sanchez.png" alt="#2 Sanchez" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Prior to the 2017 season I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s any question that Aaron Sanchez was the most valuable pitcher in the Blue Jays organization, and he&#8217;d have had a strong argument as the most valuable overall. We&#8217;ve evolved beyond ERA and win-loss record as tools for evaluating pitchers, but there&#8217;s still a certain degree of coolness in leading the league in the former and running a glorious 15-2 mark in the latter, which is exactly what Aaron Sanchez did in 2016 while fighting off questions about being shut down or moved to the bullpen. As a 24-year old he produced 3.7, 3.9, and 4.9 wins above replacement by Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference respectively, and Sanchez&#8217; star was burning as bright as a summer day at the ballpark.</p>
<p>Then came the blisters. Sanchez has been placed on the disabled list four times already this season—April 15th, May 1st, May 20th, and July 22nd—for middle finger issues, and unfortunately, they&#8217;re not the same as those that <a href="http://nypost.com/2017/06/01/fan-says-mr-met-showered-with-profane-heckles-before-bird-flip/">surrounded Mr. Met</a> earlier this year. But what seems to have been long forgotten is that these issues first popped up last year. Sanchez was removed from a start on September 11, 2016 with blister issues, and in speaking to <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/can-aaron-sanchez-speed-healing-process-blister/">Sportsnet&#8217;s Shi Davidi</a> afterwards, the right hander revealed he&#8217;d been dealing with blister issues since spring training of <em>that year</em>. Whatever solution he and the training staff used to quietly manage the problem last year clearly hasn&#8217;t translated into 2017. Sanchez dealt with blister issues <em>this </em>spring as well, which led to his delayed start to his year and likely contributed to his trip to the disabled list in April.</p>
<p>With this much uncertainty surrounding his finger, it&#8217;s hard to peg down exactly what kind of value Sanchez has at this point in time. Blisters are supposed to be a bit of a nuisance, not something that will cost a pitcher three quarters of the season when it&#8217;s all said and done. If he had just 36 innings under his belt in late July due to arm-related issues, he&#8217;d be much lower on this list &#8212; were he to make the top ten at all. Yet I feel comfortable that if Aaron Sanchez&#8217; name were floated on the trade market, opposing general managers would be tripping over themselves trying to get the Blue Jays on the line as they barked at their interns to provide them with an exhaustive list of each and every blister fix known to man.</p>
<p>If you take the stance that Sanchez will get over this issue in the coming months, the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona provides something of a parallel comparison. In the 2015/2016 offseason, Miller was entering his first year of arbitration coming off a 5.1 WARP season in Atlanta. In exchange, the Braves received prospects Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair (who immediately slotted as Atlanta&#8217;s #1 and 4 prospects, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28165">according to Chris Crawford</a>), as well as criminally underrated outfielder Ender Inciarte who was coming off a 4.1 WARP season of his own. Of course, the Diamondbacks were brutalized in the public domain for the package they surrendered, and general manager Dave Stewart was fired less than a year after making the trade. Sanchez wouldn&#8217;t net that strong of a return, but needless to say, cheap, young, dominant right handed starting pitching is more valuable than gold.</p>
<p><strong>#1: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70371">RHP Marcus Stroman</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/1-Stroman.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12592" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/1-Stroman.png" alt="#1 Stroman" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>The most valuable trade asset in the Toronto Blue Jays organization is right handed starter Marcus Stroman. Still only 26-years old, Stroman has already built the reputation as an unbelievably hard worker and a fearless big-game pitcher, and his performance on the field has more than backed up all of the narratives. Never shy to tinker or evolve his repertoire over the course of a game or season if dictated by results or opponents , Stroman has pitched like a top of the rotation starter pretty much from the moment he made his major league debut. As a rookie he produced 3.3 WARP over 20 starts in 2014, added 0.3 WARP over 4 starts in September 2015 after miraculously returning from a torn ACL, produced 3.5 WARP over 32 starts in 2016, and is currently on pace for a career best 5.1 WARP this season. According to Baseball Reference, he&#8217;s on track to eclipse 7 WAR. But it takes more than just great numbers to truly be heralded as an ace.</p>
<p>Stroman is reliable. Stroman is the easiest guy in the world to root for. In aggregate, this July has seen the most embarrassing pitching I&#8217;ve experienced in Blue Jays history. Starters have seemingly failed to complete four innings more often than not, forcing manager John Gibbons to churn through the relief arms in both Toronto and Buffalo like a butter mill. His one saving grace has been his ace, Marcus Stroman. Over his four starts in July, Stroman has faced nothing but terrific offense deployed by the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, and Indians—all of whom currently sit in playoff spots— and responded with 5.0, 7.0, 6.2, and 7.2 innings pitched. He developed a blister in the first inning against Cleveland on Saturday, but still battled through 117 pitches because he knew his manager and his teammates needed him.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman has never been on the disabled list with an arm injury and is under control through 2020. He took the Blue Jays to arbitration and won last winter, meaning his second, third, and fourth trips through the process are likely to cost in the neighbourhood of 30 to 40 million total, depending upon the number of Cy Young votes he earns over the next couple of seasons. That&#8217;s not unlike what Chris Sale had left on his contract when the Boston Red Sox swung a deal for him last offseason. As you&#8217;ll of course remember, they forfeited Yoan Moncada, the number one prospect in all of baseball, as well as elite right handed pitcher Michael Kopech and a pair of other intriguing prospects for the privilege of paying him that money.</p>
<p>Now, Marcus Stroman isn&#8217;t Chris Sale, and the Blue Jays window to buy out a few of his free agent years with a long term extension has likely come and gone (if it existed at all in the first place). His trade value likely falls somewhere between that of Sale and Sale&#8217;s former teammate, Jose Quintana. In a word: enormous. Already at the top of this list, if the Blue Jays were serious about moving him—which I&#8217;m skeptical of as his 3.5 years of control provide ample opportunity to trade him later if the team can&#8217;t turn things around in the short term—he would immediately soar to the top of everyone else&#8217;s list, too.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 66: Teaching Hitting is Tough</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/artificial-turf-wars-ep-66-teaching-hitting-is-tough/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/artificial-turf-wars-ep-66-teaching-hitting-is-tough/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Jul 2017 09:52:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitting Coach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Episode 66 Former Blue Jays Assistant Hitting Coach Eric Owens stops by to discuss working with major and minor league hitters, the issues plaguing the recent Blue Jays clubs, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s swing techniques, and why many clubs now have two hitting coaches. Greg and Josh then discuss the returning members of the Blue Jays bullpen, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 66</strong></p>
<p>Former Blue Jays Assistant Hitting Coach Eric Owens stops by to discuss working with major and minor league hitters, the issues plaguing the recent Blue Jays clubs, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s swing techniques, and why many clubs now have two hitting coaches. Greg and Josh then discuss the returning members of the Blue Jays bullpen, the continues excellence of Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna, the struggles of Marco Estrada and the defence, and Dalton Pompey&#8217;s sad tale. They also answer listener questions and discuss the trades from around the league and their impact on the Blue Jays.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/014/show_10149775_2017_07_19_04_47_27.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/014/show_10149775_2017_07_19_04_47_27.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The STUFF report – Vol. 2, Issue 5 &#8211; All Star Break Edition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/12/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-5-all-star-break-edition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Jul 2017 10:45:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Hey Sorry &#8211; I broke my own Stuff report &#8211; but it&#8217;s all fixed now and we&#8217;re ready to rock again. I think it might even be new, and improved. Let&#8217;s get to it. Starting Pitchers The usual suspects are all here; and the numbers don&#8217;t look a whole lot different than they did in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Sorry &#8211; I broke my own Stuff report &#8211; but it&#8217;s all fixed now and we&#8217;re ready to rock again. I think it might even be new, and improved. Let&#8217;s get to it.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Starters-Graph.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12294" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Starters-Table-1024x240.png" alt="Starters Table" width="801" /><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12293" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Starters-Graph-1024x742.png" alt="Starters Graph" width="801" /></a></p>
<p>The usual suspects are all here; and the numbers don&#8217;t look a whole lot different than they did in 2016. Stroman&#8217;s Stuff is much better in 2017, driven by a bit more fastball velocity but significantly (nearly 4&#8243;) more separation between his pitches. That&#8217;s a lot more room to miss bats. In 2017, Stroman is giving up contact on 76.9% of his pitches, compared to 80.2% of his pitches in 2016.</p>
<p>Obviously though &#8211; the Jays starting rotation is struggling in 2017 compared to their banner year of 2016. If the Stuff looks like it is still there, what&#8217;s going on with these guys? I took a look at Baseball Prospectus&#8217; command and control statistics to see what&#8217;s happening. For a quick refresher, command refers to a pitcher&#8217;s ability to hit his spots &#8211; measured in the % of called strikes above average a pitcher receives. Control refers to the ability for a pitcher to put their pitch in the strike zone &#8211; measured as the called strike probability of their pitches.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/command-control.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12295" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/command-control-1024x851.png" alt="command control" width="550" height="457" /></a></p>
<p>Remember if the Stuff stays the same &#8211; which, it has for the most part, something else is happening to make the pitches more hittable. For the brief time we&#8217;ve seen Aaron Sanchez this season &#8211; he has gotten rocked, or his hand has fallen off. He&#8217;s getting fewer called strikes on the edges of the zone and then he&#8217;s putting the ball in the zone less frequently. The blister issues that he&#8217;s had relate directly to this; if the finger tip is hurt, there&#8217;s less sensation. He will struggle with release point, and his fine control. Hopefully he gets the rust off and has a great second half.</p>
<p>Marco Estrada is likely the biggest example of the command/control/stuff interaction. His Stuff has remained relatively the same, but his command is way down, and his control is up. That means his easily hittable, lower velocity and movement pitches are staying in the zone &#8211; and they&#8217;re getting hammered.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Relievers-Graph.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12297" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Relievers-Table-1024x344.png" alt="Relievers Table" width="801" /><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-12296" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Relievers-Graph-1024x742.png" alt="Relievers Graph" width="801" /></a></p>
<p>The only elite Stuff guy in the Jays Bullpen remains Joe Biagini, and that has been a bit of a mixed bag with his entrance and exit to the starting rotation. If you&#8217;re looking for a light at the end of the tunnel for Biagini, his &#8220;Deserved Runs Average&#8221; is actually lower in 2017 than it was in 2016. His Stuff is there, and his command/control numbers look consistent. The evidence points to him breaking out of his funk and being a great pitcher once again.</p>
<p>Osuna&#8217;s Stuff is down in 2017 when compared to his 2016 numbers, but with this comes refined command and control. There is no doubt that Roberto Osuna is one of the best pitchers in the world right now. His fastball velocity is well above average, though the separation between his pitches is much less than it was in 2016 (13.8&#8243; in 2016, compared to 8.1&#8243; in 2017). Where he&#8217;s totally dominating is in the command/control segment. He has more than doubled the amount of command he has on the edges, while leaving fewer pitches in the zone to hit. This has resulted in staggering changes in swinging strike profiles &#8211; batters are making contact on nearly 6% fewer pitches, while swinging at nearly 8% more of his pitches that are out of the zone. In general, he&#8217;s getting 4% more swinging strikes in 2017 than in 2016. Roberto, never leave us. You are a king.</p>
<h2>Conclusions</h2>
<p>In general, what we&#8217;re seeing out of this Blue Jays team is a ton of injuries, which have a significant effect on the pitcher&#8217;s ability to throw strikes where they want them. Last year, the Blue Jays pitchers got more called strikes than the average team &#8211; this year, they&#8217;re under that average mark. <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/but-greg-maddux/">While I&#8217;m sure to attract the &#8220;But Greg Maddux&#8221; crowd with this statement, velocity is king.</a> It trumps command and control and is a huge predictor of MLB success. You can see this in the evaluation of the Stuff metric as well &#8211; it&#8217;s easier to succeed with great stuff than it is with mediocre, or bad stuff. That doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t succeed, though. Think of Stuff and Velocity as an insurance policy against bad command &#8211; missing your spot at 97 has way more margin for error than missing your spot at 89. The Jays are not a pitching staff with a whole lot of insurance policies, and now that they aren&#8217;t threading the needle like they did last year, they&#8217;re paying for it.</p>
<p>Well, welcome back to the Stuff report! I promise I won&#8217;t leave you again.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>THE STUFF REPORT – VOL. 2, ISSUE 4</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/30/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-4/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/30/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 May 2017 14:35:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11248</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank you for tuning into the 2-4 Stuff report. It&#8217;s a week late for celebrating the real 2-4, but that doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t grab a 2-4 with your buds and enjoy some statistical bliss. And that doesn&#8217;t mean beer! There&#8217;s a great sale on Blue Label sparking water at Fortino&#8217;s right now. Have you [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for tuning into the 2-4 Stuff report. It&#8217;s a week late for celebrating the real 2-4, but that doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t grab a 2-4 with your buds and enjoy some statistical bliss. And that doesn&#8217;t mean beer! There&#8217;s a great sale on Blue Label sparking water at Fortino&#8217;s right now. Have you tried it? Delicious. What was I talking about?</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Table.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11252" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Table-1024x208.png" alt="Starters Table" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Figure.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11251" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Figure-1024x742.png" alt="Starters Figure" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>My favourite pitcher to watch on the Stuff report has been Marcus Stroman. Stro has better stuff in 2017 than he did in 2016 &#8211; actually, his Stuff has increased by double, from 0.24 to 0.58. Last season, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/01/pitch-homogenization-and-marcus-stromans-breaking-balls/">Kyle Matte wrote about how Stroman&#8217;s pitches looked too similar.</a> It&#8217;s great that you can throw 6 different pitches, but if the hitter can&#8217;t tell the difference between them &#8211; they might as well all be fastballs to him.  This year &#8211; Stro is doing something different.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stro-Show.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11254" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stro-Show-1024x243.png" alt="Stro Show" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>Take a look at how he is changing speeds in 2017 &#8211; and how he is gaining separation between his pitches. The change in velocity is slight, but the 16.6&#8243; separation between his fastball and breaking stuff in the past two weeks is excellent. This separation actually ranks in the top 25 percent of all pitchers in the MLB in the 2017 this season. The 10.2&#8243; he had in 2016? 75 percent of pitchers were better. The current numbers mean a lot more space to induce swings and misses. This is reflected in his increased strikeout rate as well:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/stro-break-and-k9.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11255" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/stro-break-and-k9.png" alt="stro break and k9" width="700px" /></a>\</p>
<p>You obviously can&#8217;t infer that much from this graph &#8211; it is too small of a sample to say that this is a sustainable trend &#8211; but the relationship sure is interesting. We can look back at the end of the season and see how Stro&#8217;s pitch separation leads to punching more tickets.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/relievers-table.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11250" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/relievers-table-1024x224.png" alt="relievers table" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Figure.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11249" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Figure-1024x742.png" alt="Relievers Figure" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Blue Jays Bullpen Stuff resembles a lot of their season in general &#8211; a rocky start, followed by a lot of stability. In fact, this graph is boring as hell. Here class, may I show you a bunch of straight lines? The exciting thing is about how straight they are. Do you like Molson Canadian and White Wonderbread? I also enjoy going to bed at 10pm and having Swiss Chalet at 4:30 on Wednesdays.</p>
<p>There are two guys that I have some concerns with though &#8211; Roberto Osuna and Aaron Loup. Right now, Osuna&#8217;s stuff is 33 of what it was in 2016. As for Aaron Loup, his stuff has fallen completely off the map. While the culprit with Osuna looks like it&#8217;s a lot of velocity loss, Loup is not separating between his pitches at all in 2017. The Loup concern is something that is a bit more strategic &#8211; if he&#8217;s really feeling that fastball, there&#8217;s no need to throw the slider &#8211; especially if it&#8217;s getting guys out. Osuna&#8217;s leaking velocity is a bit more insidious &#8211; this could be a sign of fatigue and worse, a chance he&#8217;s injured. </p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Loup-and-OSuna.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11257" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Loup-and-OSuna-1024x316.png" alt="Loup and OSuna" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>Stuff will continue to educate us all on the miracles of pitching.</p>
<p>Ok, back to my quarter chicken dinner.</p>
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		<title>Roberto Osuna is Back to Doing What He Does Best</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/12/roberto-osuna-back-to-doing-what-he-does-best/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/12/roberto-osuna-back-to-doing-what-he-does-best/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 May 2017 09:56:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10832</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna had a troubling start to his 2017 season. A disastrous WBC outing was followed up by cervical spasms on the cusp of opening day that put the young closer on the disabled list. Then he had to watch the Jays get off to an bad start in his absence. Osuna&#8217;s return from the DL [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Roberto Osuna had a troubling start to his 2017 season. A disastrous WBC outing was followed up by cervical spasms on the cusp of opening day that put the young closer on the disabled list. Then he had to watch the Jays get off to an bad start in his absence. Osuna&#8217;s return from the DL was met with cheers from Jays fans who&#8217;d been watching a rickety bullpen, but he too had his struggles, allowing runs in four of his first six outings, blowing three saves in the process. Why did Osuna struggle? Was it the injury, and shaking off the rust to start the season? Or was there an underlying problem that the team should be concerned about?</p>
<p>Turning the calendar to a new month has brought back the dominant Osuna, as he&#8217;s held opponents scoreless over five innings in May, striking out eight. Did Osuna change something from April to May, or was it a great reliever finding his normal? Over the last season and so far in this one, Osuna has had some interesting shifts in his pitch usage. Let&#8217;s take a look at some of them.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/osunapitch.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-10893 size-large" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/osunapitch-1024x683.png" alt="" width="450" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>There are some interesting changes here. The decreased usage of the changeup late in the 2016 season in favor of his cutter and sinker is one. The near equivalence of his cutter and slider to start this year is another. BP Toronto&#8217;s Kyle Matte <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/13/roberto-osuna-cutter-holding-slider-hostage/">examined Osuna&#8217;s evolving arsenal in the spring</a>, suggesting that Osuna should scuttle his cutter to increase the effectiveness of a dominant slider.</p>
<p>As a reliever, Osuna probably doesn&#8217;t need five pitches to keep on top of, given the effectiveness of his fastball and slider. Unless the Jays have plans on converting him to a starter- which doesn&#8217;t appear to be the case- it&#8217;s more important that Osuna refine the stronger pitches he has been having success with already. More offerings complicates matters, making his shorter outings and warming up more difficult to manage. As long as he can get hitters out from both sides of the plate, he&#8217;s probably in good shape.</p>
<p>This may have been the impetus behind the increase in cutters and sinkers: Osuna, like most righties, is better against same handed hitters, and used those two pitches much more against left-handers than right-handers. As Matte detailed, the cutter didn&#8217;t really work on several levels. The sinker kind of did: Lefties hit a miniscule .133 against the pitch in 2016. So it makes sense that Osuna would go back to that pitch to start this year.</p>
<p>While the sinker worked by the numbers, it didn&#8217;t have much going for it. According to Brooks Baseball, the velocity is close to his four-seamer, and it has less movement than most sinkers. If it&#8217;s just a regular fastball; there&#8217;s not a lot of reason for him to use it during the season.</p>
<p>If Osuna were in a more traditional point in his development curve with the team (maybe somewhere in the high minors, or on the cusp of the majors) or building up to be a starter, then his new additions should have been encouraged and developed. But the Jays called him up early, seem to have no intention of changing his role, and don&#8217;t have the luxury of letting him experiment in regular games given that they&#8217;re a veteran team with designs on contention (even if the results so far suggest otherwise).</p>
<p>The move to May has seen a simpler and more effective Osuna. Thus far, he and his catchers have tossed the cutter and sinker into the sea in favor of the two pitches he throws best. This is good news for a Jays team that could use the stability Osuna provides at the back of the bullpen. With Biagini plugging a hole in the rotation, and Jason Grilli turning back into a pumpkin, the team could ill afford to have it&#8217;s closer struggle for much longer than he had been.</p>
<p>Osuna&#8217;s struggles to start the season may have given Jays fans pause, but recent outings have shown that he&#8217;s rounding into form, quickly returning to his throne as one of the elite closers in baseball. While the team should be encouraged that he&#8217;s looking for ways to improve, they should be equally encouraged that he and the catchers noticed his early struggles and adjusted the game calling accordingly. Until the league adjusts, Osuna should keep doing what he does best.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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