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	<title>Toronto &#187; Rays</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>West Coast Warriors: Mariners Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/19/west-coast-warriors-mariners-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Sep 2016 05:42:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Mariners September 19th &#8211; September 21st Written by Matt Gwin and Elie Waiter Rising and Falling. If a team is a contender, it seems to only be doing one of those two things these days. For the Blue Jays, coming off a successive series loss and series split to two of the American League’s [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Mariners</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">September 19th &#8211; September 21st</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Matt Gwin and Elie Waiter</em></p>
<p>Rising and Falling. If a team is a contender, it seems to only be doing one of those two things these days. For the Blue Jays, coming off a successive series loss and series split to two of the American League’s worst teams, it’s falling. For the Mariners, coming off of two sweeps in their last three series, its rising. A month ago, it seemed implausible that either both Seattle and Toronto would be competing for the wild-card spots, but now, it’s possible that they’ll meet for one more game in October. If that ends up being the case, this series will serve as a preview of its own for the wildcard game. We’ll see the best starters from either side, and two, at times, potent lineups. The Jays will have to rediscover their potency, while the Mariners will hope that theirs lasts for a few more weeks.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, September 19th – 10:10 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada @ Taijuan Walker</strong></p>
<p>Back on Thursday, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/report-blue-jays-estrada-pitching-herniated-disk-back/">Jon Morosi reported</a> that Estrada has been pitching with a herniated disc in his back for some time. The club hasn’t confirmed the injury, but it explains his atrocious performance over his past few starts. With Estrada unlikely to go a full six innings against Seattle, it’ll be interesting to see if Gibbons goes to Scott Feldman for some length to avoid using up too much of the bullpen in the first game of this crucial series.</p>
<p>Walker has shown flashes of brilliance this season, highlighted by his first career shutout against the Angels last Tuesday. Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, and… Ryan Goins all homered off of Walker last season, and the long ball will be the key to beating him again. Walker has supposedly <a href="http://prospectinsider.com/seattle-mariners/taijuan-walker-delivery-mechanics-stottlemyre-dipoto-servais/">revamped his delivery</a> after midseason command struggles, so that’ll be something to keep an eye on.</p>
<h4>Tuesday, September 20th – 10:10 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ @ Hisashi Iwakuma</strong></p>
<p>Happ has been a rock during this turbulent time for the Jays rotation, and he’ll take the mound looking for his 20<sup>th</sup> win of the season against a lefty-loaded Mariners lineup. Six of the M’s first seven batters are lefties – including Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Seth Smith, and Adam Lind – but I’d be surprised to see any of them sit given how well the lineup has been performing.</p>
<p>Iwakuma has stymied the Blue Jays over his career, going 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA over six starts. He’s settled into a nice groove over his past four starts, and while he might not rack up the strikeouts against the Jays, he’ll be a tough change of pace after they face the overpowering Walker. The key to beating Iwakuma will be patience, as he’s given up multiple walks in six of his last nine starts.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, September 21st – 10:10 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez @ Felix Hernadez</strong></p>
<p>In the marquee matchup of the series, Sanchez will look to build on his promising start against the Rays. His blister may have been bothering him a little his last time out, but besides the eight strikeouts the most promising stat is that he didn’t walk a batter for the first time since May 20<sup>th</sup>. Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano, and Kyle Seager all have the ability to handle even the toughest fastballs from Sanchez, but if he stays away from the heart of the lineup he should be able to overpower the rest.</p>
<p>This will be the Jays first time seeing the King this season, and it couldn’t come at a better time. Hernandez has struggled mightily of late, giving up six runs in three of his last starts and going just 4.1 IP in his last start against Houston. Inconsistent velocity has been the main issue for Hernandez. His fastball has averaged around 92 MPH, but from start to start that average has bounced from a low of 89 MPH to a high of 93 MPH.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>With the expanded rosters all set, neither the Blue Jays nor the Mariners have made any notable injuries. The Blue Jays, however, will have Josh Donaldson back for his first full series after being forced to DH for the first couple of games in Anaheim. Whether or not he’s at full strength is still to be determined, but even 60% of Josh Donaldson is a worthy addition.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>The Middle of the Mariners’ Lineup</strong></p>
<p>Ranking fifth in the league in true average, the Mariners don’t have the best lineup but they don’t lack some punch either. Their 3-4-5 L-R-L combo of Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, and Kyle Seager is particularly dangerous. Each player a .300 TAv or higher, and they have a combined 99 home runs. Watch out, Roberto Osuna.</p>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></p>
<p>At times this season, Aaron Sanchez was a strike machine. At other times, he was a ground ball machine. In his last start, he struck out 10% of batters, and got 35.7% ground balls; falling on neither of his two successes. He battled a blister in his last start, which certainly could have driven his poor performance. Given that he was first demoted and skipped in the rotation (to keep his innings down), and then blistered, it&#8217;ll be interesting to see what a regular Aaron Sanchez can do in September.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Mariners</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Nori Aoki &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Seth Smith &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Robinson Cano &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Nelson Cruz &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kyle Seager &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Adam Lind &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Leonys Martin &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr. &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mike Zunino &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ketel Marte &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>It&#8217;s hard to call any singular series over a full season &#8220;defining&#8221;, but this one against the Mariners is going to come pretty close. Having gone from the top of the AL East, to the top of the wildcard, to the second wildcard spot, there&#8217;s not much further that the Jays can fall without creating some real turmoil. They&#8217;ll likely need to win the series just to hold off the Tigers. On the flip side of things, the Mariners control their own destiny. If they can sweep the Jays, they&#8217;ll hold a wildcard spot of their own by series&#8217; end.</p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 3, Rays 2; Ezequiel, My Hero</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/12/recap-blue-jays-3-rays-2-ezequiel-my-hero/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/12/recap-blue-jays-3-rays-2-ezequiel-my-hero/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Sep 2016 01:59:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Well wasn&#8217;t that a change from the hit-happy, time-heavy Red Sox series of this past weekend. Through five innings, only Logan Forsythe, the first batter of the game for the Rays, had mustered together an at bat that ended in a hit. Then in the sixth inning, the Blue Jays took a two run lead. First, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well wasn&#8217;t that a change from the hit-happy, time-heavy Red Sox series of this past weekend. Through five innings, only Logan Forsythe, the first batter of the game for the Rays, had mustered together an at bat that ended in a hit. Then in the sixth inning, the Blue Jays took a two run lead. First, Devon Travis doubled off Jake Odorizzi to start the inning, and Jose Bautista hit a home run to score two. Through that point in the game, the Blue Jays&#8217; starter for the night, Francisco Liriano, had only given up one hit and issued one walk while striking out six Rays batters. Given that he hadn&#8217;t started since August 26th, Liriano&#8217;s pitching to begin the game looked very promising. However, in the top of the seventh inning, the Rays retaliated.</p>
<p>As the first batter of the inning, Evan Longoria took Francisco Liriano deep to cut the Jays lead to one run. Then, Brad Miller, the next batter, hit a home run of his own, and tied the game with the back to back jack. We&#8217;d seen a similar story just yesterday: after Troy Tulowitzki hit a grand slam home run, the Red Sox came back and added on six runs in the three innings that proceeded. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, the Rays, who currently have the fifth worst record in baseball, don&#8217;t have quite as robust of a lineup or bullpen as this past weekend&#8217;s opponent. With 2.5 innings remaining, that opened the door for a Blue Jays comeback.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the 8th, with right handed relief pitcher Brad Boxberger on the mound, Ezequiel Carrera was tagged to come in and pinch hit for the right handed hitting Melvin Upton. Carrera came in and immediately hit a homer just over the left field fence; Blue Jays 3 &#8211; Rays 2. That one run would be all that the Jays needed to secure a victory.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>As previously noted, there was little action in this game prior to the sixth inning, and the Blue Jays were the first team to shake that trend up. With two outs and Devon Travis on third base, Jose Bautista&#8217;s big home run to help the Jays take the lead increased their chances of winning by 26.6%.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Even after their back to back home runs, the Rays ended up with a chance to take the lead in the 7th inning. After a walk by Steven Souza, and an error from Darwin Barney allowing Richie Shaffer to reach base, it was first and third with two outs when Luke Maile came up to the plate. Despite pitching each of the last two days, Joaquin Benoit was able to force the fly out from Luke Maile, reducing the Rays&#8217; chances of winning by 8.8%.</p>
<h3>False Alarm on the Field</h3>
<p>The last out was a weird one in this game. With Steven Souza up to bat, Roberto Osuna threw a tough inside pitch that Souza barely foul tipped. Initially, it looked like Russell Martin had caught the ball to end the game&#8230;or so Roberto thought. Instead, it took another pitch from Osuna that resulted in a long fly out to centre field; Blue Jays win.</p>
<p>After the out, Russell Martin and Steven Souza had a quick, not-so-heated chat. However, because they&#8217;d stayed on the field, both benches cleared to try and figure out what was up. Things diffused quickly, and Martin clarified after the game that there was, &#8220;no bad blood.&#8221;</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow at 7:07 PM, the Blue Jays and Rays will face off again at the Rogers Centre. Another win, and a Red Sox loss, could reduce the lead in the AL East to 0.5 games. For their part, the Blue Jays will toss out Marcus Stroman to face the Rays glut of right handed batters. Stroman has had a lot of success recently, save for one poorer start against Minnesota. It&#8217;d be nice to see him follow up Liriano&#8217;s relatively successful appearance with another strong outing.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Going Fishing: Rays Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/02/rays-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2016 14:57:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays September 2nd &#8211; September 4th Written by Matt Gwin, Nick Dika, and Joshua Howsam With a record of 19-11 over their last 30 games, the Blue Jays we know and love are back. With Baseball Prospectus assigning them a 94.2% chance at making the playoffs, meaningful October baseball will almost [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">September 2nd &#8211; September 4th</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Matt Gwin, Nick Dika, and Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<p>With a record of 19-11 over their last 30 games, the Blue Jays we know and love are back. With Baseball Prospectus assigning them a 94.2% chance at making the playoffs, meaningful October baseball will almost certainly be played in Toronto. However, that shouldn&#8217;t diminish this last month of the season. While the Jays do have an almost certain shot at a playoff spot, at 60.9%, their chance to win the division is much lower. They&#8217;ve got an amped up Red Sox squad and a still fighting Orioles team nipping at their heels. As a result, the two teams in the AL East not playing for a playoff spot, the Yankees and Rays, may end up being the most important ones. The two teams will play a combined 36 games against the Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles. The AL East&#8217;s two basement dwellers don&#8217;t have a great shot at the playoffs, but they could certainly create some interesting September baseball.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups</h3>
<h4>Friday, September 2nd – 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>Marcus Stroman vs. Alex Cobb</b></p>
<p>While the outcomes left something to be desired, Marcus Stroman (9-5, 4.58 ERA) continued to pitch well in his last turn through the rotation against the Minnesota Twins. Stroman surrendered five runs in six innings of work, but the young righty limited his home runs (0), walks (1), and hard contact (19.1%) despite giving up nine hits to the Twins. Since struggling to pitch effectively in May and June, Stroman has pitched very well in July and August – posting a 3.43 ERA and 2.45 xFIP since July 1<sup>st</sup>. In three starts this season against the Rays, Stroman has pitched to a 2-1 record, surrendering 11 runs in 21.2 innings.</p>
<p>Alex Cobb will make his first start of the 2016 season on Friday night as the right-hander has missed the bulk of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery. After a strong 2014 in which Cobb posted a 2.87 ERA in 166 innings, he was pegged as a potential breakout candidate last season before the elbow injury stalled his progress. The 28-year-old&#8217;s arsenal consists of a fastball/curveball/changeup combination with his fastball typically topping out at just less than 92 mph in 2014. As with any pitcher returning from a major arm injury, Cobb’s velocity and control may not return to him as quickly as he would like. Cobb has struck out 10 batters and walked five in 15 innings of rehab work at Triple A this season.</p>
<h4>Saturday, September 3rd – 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>Marco Estrada vs. Chris Archer</b></p>
<p>Once again the Blue Jays are bypassing Francisco Liriano (his original day would&#8217;ve been Friday), this time so that they can keep Marco Estrada on his regular rest. While it didn&#8217;t seem to matter for Aaron Sanchez, pitching every five days seems to make a difference for Estrada. In his two outings prior to his dominance of the Orioles, on six and seven days rest, Estrada was very much not himself. Not only was he hit hard, giving up 11 runs in nine innings of work, but his stuff was also worse. His normally heavily-rising fastball was staying up at a season-low rate, but then rebounded nicely on regular rest against the Orioles (see chart below). Look for the Jays to do their best to keep him on a regular schedule going forward.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/Brooksbaseball-Chart-27.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6234" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/09/Brooksbaseball-Chart-27.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (27)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Much like Marcus Stroman, Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10 EREA) has seen his season take a positive turn after struggling early on. Through the first three months of the season, Archer owned an ugly 4.76 ERA and an uncharacteristically high BB/9 of 3.94. While he was still striking out batters at an elite rate, his lack of slider command rendered him ineffective. Since the beginning of July, Archer has been able to regain command of his wipeout slider and looks a lot like the CY Young candidate he was last season – posting a 10.83 K/9, 2.17 BB/9 and a 3.18 ERA.</p>
<h4>Sept 4th – 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><b>J.A. Happ vs. Blake Snell</b></p>
<p>J.A. Happ is also jumping the line, taking the spot that would have most likely gone to R.A. Dickey if the Jays were still going in order. Despite giving up a few runs in each of his last three starts, Happ has continued to excel for the Blue Jays as they head into September baseball. He has been <a title="How J.A. Happ Evolved Into One of Baseball’s Best" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/" target="_blank">using some unique stuff</a> to generate outs, and there doesn&#8217;t seem to be any sign of slowing down. His worst outing of the season happened to come against these same Rays (the only outing where he failed to go at least five innings), but he then dominated them his next time out, holding them off the scoreboard for six innings while striking out seven. This will be an interesting test to see how the Rays adjust back to the tall lefty.</p>
<p>Blake Snell (4-7, 3.56 ERA) continues an up and down rookie season that is equal parts promising and frustrating. While Snell has shown an arsenal that is able to generate swings and misses at the big league level, he has also demonstrated an inability to command his repertoire effectively. Not only has Snell’s 5.27 BB/9 increased his opponent’s opportunities to score runs against him, the elevated pitch counts that come with walking the farm limit Snell’s ability to pitch deep into games. Snell has only pitched into the seventh inning twice this season. In his only start against the Blue Jays, Snell surrendered five runs (two earned) in only 1.2 innings of work – giving up five hits and four walks in what was the shortest outing of his season so far. A patient Jays’ lineup may be able to exploit Snell once again.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>As the major league season rolls in to September, it&#8217;s time for expanded rosters. As such, there&#8217;s quite a few more additions than there are subtractions. On the Blue Jays side of things, <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/771770420223680512" target="_blank">the team will be to calling up OFs Dalton Pompey and Darrell Ceciliani, C Josh Thole, LHP Matt Dermody, and RHPs Danny Barnes and Ryan Tepera</a>. Given that they&#8217;ve previously been up for the Jays this season, Barnes and Tepera seemed like fairly obvious adds. For his part, Danny Barnes has had an immaculate season as a reliever in AA and AAA. Over a combined 61 1/3 innings between the two levels, Barnes had a combined 0.73 ERA and a 12.83 strikeout to walk ratio. Ryan Tepera fared well in the minors too, with a 2.58 ERA in 45 1/3 innings at AAA.</p>
<p>Pompey call up was alos a foregone conclusion. Last September, he was utilized in a pinch running role and defensive replacement role, and it&#8217;s easy to see that happening again. Ceciliani has also seen his time in the bigs, and will help with outfield depth. Thole&#8217;s reason for being around is also obvious, as he will still catch whenever Dickey takes the mound. He was DFA and released to make room for Dioner Navarro, but the team always wanted him back. Technically, Devon Travis is <em>also</em> an addition, as he had to go on option to Rookie-level Bluefield for one day to allow Thole to be postseason eligible.</p>
<p>Matt Dermody is the least known of the call ups, and has pitched zero innings at the major league level. Dermody had some success in both Dunedin and New Hampshire this year, so he could be interesting. He was recalled as an extra left hander out of the bullpen, as Aaron Loup <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/pompey-headlines-blue-jays-early-september-call-ups/" target="_blank">needs to stay down until the AAA season is finished before being recalled</a>. The same is true of Bo Schultz; Schultz and Loup could see call ups when the roster rules allow it.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/sports/baseball/rays/pitcher-gamboa-one-of-three-rays-callups-in-position-for-major-league-debut/2291979" target="_blank">Rays called up C Curt Casali, RHP Ryan Garton, and RHP Eddie Gamboa</a>. Gamboa is the most interesting of the three, as he&#8217;ll be one of just a few knuckleballers in the majors. Mark Topkins notes in the Tampa Bay Times, &#8220;Gamboa, 31, joined the Rays as a minor-league free agent this year, working under new pitching coordinator Charlie Haeger, after switching to being a primarily a knuckleballer in 2013.&#8221; The Jays may see Gamboa in this series, giving each team a knuckleballing option. As for the other two, Curt Casali is your typical third catcher for September, and Ryan Garton is just another bullpen option.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><b>6-Man Central</b></p>
<p>Shortly after the Blue Jays acquired Francisco Liriano at the non-waiver trade deadline, they had a decision to make. The addition of Liriano gave the Jays more starters than one would fit in the typical rotation. However, it became a blessing in disguise, as a 6-man rotation would allow the Blue Jays&#8217; four historically less-worked pitchers, Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, and Stroman, to rest down the stretch. Just last week, the <a href="http://www.draysbay.com/2016/8/30/12709360/tampa-bay-rays-six-man-rotation-alex-cobb-chris-archer-blake-snell-drew-smyly-jake-odorizzi" target="_blank">Rays joined the 6-man rotation club</a>, as they also found themselves with more pitchers than rotation spots. In the Rays&#8217; case they had a few too many younger starters that all needed major league innings.</p>
<p><strong>Usage of Recent Additions</strong></p>
<p>As noted above, each of the Blue Jays and Rays have added a few players to their major league rosters as they expand for September. We already know a bit about what each of the players have to offer&#8230;therefore the more interesting trend to watch will be how the players are used. Will the Blue Jays rest backend relievers like Grilli and Osuna in favour of Barnes and Tepera? Will Dalton Pompey get any outfield time, or will he be relegated to running the base paths? Will knuckleballer Eddie Gamboa get a start down the stretch?</p>
<p><b>Tropicana Punch</b></p>
<p>Despite playing half their games in the spacious Tropicana Field, the Tampa Bay Rays have allowed the seventh most home runs in all of baseball (170). With the return of a healthy Bautista (two HRs vs Baltimore), and Saunders showing a resurgence in power, we could see a lot of balls leaving the yard in this series.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
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<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Rays</h3>
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<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Forsythe &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
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<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Kiermaier &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
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<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Evan Longoria &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Brad Miller &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Matt Duffy &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Morrison &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
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<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Steven Souza &#8211; RF</td>
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<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr. &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Corey Dickerson &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
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<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Bobby Wilson &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>At the beginning of the season, the Jays had a few scuffles. As such, they didn&#8217;t get quite the national attention that they deserved. As Michael Baumann <a href="https://theringer.com/just-a-heads-up-the-blue-jays-are-still-awesome-3c70989ebc81#.4cjwjbyyy" target="_blank">writes at The Ringer</a>, &#8220;the Blue Jays, when they’re on, are a reality-altering drug. And even though we haven’t been talking about them as much, they’re on again.&#8221; The Jays are in place to once again win the AL East. While they weren&#8217;t the most exciting team in the first half of the season; there&#8217;s no ignoring the talent that has put them in a place to win the division.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Rays 1; Jays Outlast Rays in Pitcher&#8217;s Duel</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/01/recap-blue-jays-5-rays-1-jays-outlast-rays-in-pitchers-duel/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 01 May 2016 20:23:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A massive four-run 9th inning helped the Blue Jays win two of three from Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field. The offense took its time, but ultimately did enough to help Marcus Stroman pick up a well-deserved win. Toronto did well to take the series from a division foe who usually gives them trouble and responded [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A massive four-run 9th inning helped the Blue Jays win two of three from Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field. The offense took its time, but ultimately did enough to help Marcus Stroman pick up a well-deserved win. Toronto did well to take the series from a division foe who usually gives them trouble and responded nicely to yesterday&#8217;s disappointing walk-off loss. The Jays won&#8217;t return to the Trop until early September.</p>
<p>A leadoff single and a fly ball to deep left center portended a troublesome day, but Stroman would bounce back to escape the first and needed only five pitches to get through the second. Josh Donaldson handed Stroman a lead with a solo home run in the top of the fourth, one of only two hits the Jays could generate off of Rays&#8217; starter Jake Odorizzi. Stroman retired nine consecutive Rays before Evan Longoria&#8217;s sixth inning home run knotted the game at one. It began to feel all too familiar with excellent pitching effort going to waste thanks to a scuffling lineup.</p>
<p>In the top of the ninth, Darwin Barney was called upon to hit for Ryan Goins and promptly delivered a leadoff double off of lefty Xavier Cedeno. Michael Saunders took a four pitch walk while trying to lay down a sacrifice bunt and Rays Manager Kevin Cash summoned closer Alex Colome from the bullpen. Colome promptly walked Donaldson before striking out Jose Bautista. Edwin Encarnacion would hit a sharp grounder at second baseman Logan Forsythe, positioned to the left of the bag. While it initially appeared like a double play ball, some miscommunication between Tampa infielders meant the only play would be at first. Encarnacion&#8217;s 16th RBI of the season gave the Jays a 2-1 lead. Troy Tulowitzki would give them some much needed breathing room following Edwin&#8217;s at bat by delivering a three-run home run.</p>
<p>Stroman was once again excellent, working quickly while only allowing five baserunners all day. Stroman improved to 4-0 on the young season, with a final line of: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 1ER, 2 BB, 9K with 65 strikes on 103 pitches. Roberto Osuna would finish the game, giving up one hit while racking up two strikeouts.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Despite the ninth inning action, today&#8217;s top play by WPA was Evan Longoria&#8217;s home run with one out in the bottom of the 6th. On a day where Stroman was rolling, Longoria&#8217;s homer drew the teams to a tie and  increased Tampa&#8217;s probability of winning by 20.4% (.204 WPA).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the bases loaded and nobody out, Jose Bautista stepped to the plate looking to give the Blue Jays a late-game lead. Bautista would strike out, leaving the heroics for Encarnacion today, assuming an RBI groundout counts as heroic. The K reduced the Jays&#8217; probability by 12.4% (-.124 WPA).</p>
<h3>More Strong Pitching</h3>
<p>Marcus Stroman definitely deserved a win today, going eight strong innings with only one blemish. In the 1st and 3rd he worked around multiple baserunners, but had no really stressful moments beyond that. On his 25th birthday, Stroman dropped his ERA by over half a run- from 4.37 to 3.77. While some concerns have surfaced recently about his lack of strikeouts, the young right hander notched a career-high nine K&#8217;s today. Happy birthday indeed, Marcus.</p>
<p>On the minor milestone side of things, Donaldson&#8217;s home run was 50th regular season homer as a Blue Jay, per <a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/726836778846556160">Ben Nicholson-Smith</a>. The home run, his 9th of the season, also moves him into first place in the AL in that category.</p>
<h3>Offensive Struggles Continue</h3>
<p>Until the 9th, it looked like the Blue Jays would once again be let down by lack of offensive production. As our own Joshua Howsam noted, the Jays struggled mightily with Tampa Bay starters in this series.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Assuming Odorizzi is done, the Jays managed 5 hits off the starting pitchers in this series. That&#39;s terrible.</p>
<p>&mdash; Joshua (@JoshuaHowsam) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam/status/726848233461391360">May 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>For a team with such a potent group of hitters the early difficulties are disheartening. To garner only five hits in three games is not very helpful, to put it politely. Luckily the Jays put some hurt on the Rays&#8217; bullpen and they&#8217;ll look to take the good vibes home for the next series.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>It was feeling a little bit like déjà vu in more ways than one. For the first eight innings, this looked a lot like the 2016 Blue Jays- wasting a strong pitching performance with unproductive at bats. In the 9th, the 2015 Blue Jays appeared and dropped four runs to earn themselves a win. The Jays will hope for a &#8216;best of both worlds&#8217; scenario going forward, as they return home to play host to the Texas Rangers. Unfortunately the Rangers are only in Toronto for four games, so the Jays will need to work quicker than they did during the ALDS. That series kicks off at 7:07 tomorrow night.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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