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		<title>Blue Jays vs. Rangers: ALDS Game Two Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/blue-jays-vs-rangers-alds-game-two-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2016 14:20:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers Friday October 7th, 2016 On the surface, one could argue that conditions favored Texas entering Game One on Thursday afternoon. The Rangers, owners of the best record in the American League during the regular season had their ace on the mound, and were hosting the villainous Jose Bautista and friends; seeking [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center"><strong>Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers</strong><br />
<strong> Friday October 7th, 2016</strong></h2>
<p>On the surface, one could argue that conditions favored Texas entering Game One on Thursday afternoon. The Rangers, owners of the best record in the American League during the regular season had their ace on the mound, and were hosting the <em>villainous </em>Jose Bautista and friends; seeking revenge for a devastating defeat at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays during the American League Division Series last fall. So devastating, in fact, it forced Rangers and the entire state of Texas to relinquish self-control to their inner eight-year old child when the two teams faced off in May. Known diaper-baby Rougned Odor, upset that someone celebrated the single greatest moment of their professional career by throwing a bat, decided that physically assaulting another human being was the proper recourse. Shortly thereafter, fully embracing trash capitalism, Odor attempted to monetize the &#8220;moment&#8221; for his own financial gain, before <em>someone </em>around him advised that it was a <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/odor-profit-off-signing-photos-bautista-punch-incident/">really, really poor idea</a>.</p>
<p>Even with the underlying swell of conditions lining up in Texas&#8217; favor, it took all of three innings for things to completely unravel. After getting two batters to fly out around an Ezequiel Carrera walk, Cole Hamels allowed each of the next five batters to reach base, capped off by a Troy Tulowitizki triple to deep right center field, scoring three, which converted shortstop Ian Desmond alligator-armed at the base of the wall. The Blue Jays kept piling on, with a solo home run by Melvin Upton in the fourth and a monstrously satisfying three-run bomb by Jose Bautista in the ninth being the highlights.</p>
<p>Despite the playoff circumstances, the rivalry, and the unfriendly atmosphere, Game One was legitimately and unquestionably the easiest Blue Jays game to watch since <em>at least</em> August. The offense covered its share in spades, for sure, but on the mound, Marco Estrada was equally dominant, shutting down the Rangers&#8217; bats (and hopes) one inning after another. He faced more than the minimum in just two of the eight innings he completed, and even then, it was merely a pair of singles who failed to advance further than first base. Rarely needing the curveball or cutter, Estrada used his fastball/changeup combination to perfection, racking up more strikeouts (six) than total base runners (4) allowed. The cherry on top of the game? Not only was Roberto Osuna (shoulder) not needed, <em>none </em>of the Blue Jays&#8217; late inning/high leverage relievers were called into duty. The only non-Estrada pitcher to enter the game was reliever Ryan Tepera, who retired both of the two batters he faced.</p>
<p>With the win the Blue Jays are now in possession of home field advantage for the remainder of the series; taking care of business at the Rogers Centre would punch their tickets to their second consecutive American League Championship Series. Looking to steal the show for a second consecutive afternoon will be J.A. Happ.</p>
<h3><strong>Pitching Matchup:</strong></h3>
<p><strong>Friday, October 7th &#8211; 1:00 PM ET</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>RHP Yu Darvish – 7-5, 100.1 IP (17 starts), 132 strikeouts, 3.41 ERA/2.56 DRA, 3.4 WARP</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Table-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7286" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Table-1.png" alt="Table 1" width="534" height="376" /></a></p>
<p>In game two on Friday afternoon, Texas is sending <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/twitter-frenzy-sent-hopes-of-jays-fans-soaring">once-a-Jay-but-never-quite-actually-a-Jay</a> Yu Darvish to the mound, a key cog on the Rangers&#8217; staff who was devastatingly absent during the Division series last October. Darvish had suffered an elbow injury in August 2014 and was shut down, but when he attempted to ramp things up the following spring, he experienced triceps soreness which eventually led to Tommy John surgery and an entire lost campaign. Darvish began 2016 on the disabled list as he continued his rehabilitation, not making his debut until late May after twenty-one months away from the game. It was short lived, however, as after just three starts he found himself out of action for another six weeks with shoulder soreness.</p>
<p>Upon his return, Darvish picked up right where he had left off, as the right hander has become something of baseball&#8217;s strikeout king since debuting stateside in 2012. Over the first five years of his Major League career, his strikeout rates of 30.3 percent and 11.32 per nine innings rank first among pitchers with 500 or more innings pitched. The secret behind his success? A diverse six pitch mix with an impressive 25 miles per hour of velocity separation, top to bottom, helping drive a Stuff Score of 1.45 &#8212; tops among Rangers starters, and in the 94th percentile across all MLB starters in 2016.</p>
<p>As Table 1 above (via Brooks Baseball) details, Darvish relies primarily on five pitches, each of which is well above average at generating swinging strikes. Using the invaluable Pitch F/X leaderboard at Baseball Prospectus and filtering by pitches thrown at least one hundred times, his curveball (36.23 percent) and slider (38.89 percent) rank in the 75th and 83rd percentiles among right handed starting pitchers. The whiff per swing rates of his three hard-type offerings grade even better; each between the 92nd and 97th percentile among their respective pitch types.</p>
<p>The flexibility of his arsenal limits the opportunity for opposing batters to find and expose any potential glaring weakness, and consequently, Darvish is able to heavily neutralize the platoon advantages. For his career, right handed hitters have hit just .201/.277/.332, while left handers have slashed an only slightly better .223/.306/.365. The splits have actually reversed in 2016 &#8212; possibly because his cutter is looking much crisper than ever before &#8212; with lefties producing just a .606 OPS versus a .661 mark for the righties. Against the right handed dominant Blue Jays, look for Darvish to lean heavily on the four seam fastball, sinker, and slider.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>LHP J.A. Happ &#8211; 20-4, 195.0 IP (32 starts), 163 strikeouts, 3.18 ERA/4.42 DRA, 2.1 WARP</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Table-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7287" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Table-2.png" alt="Table 2" width="534" height="376" /></a></p>
<p>The Blue Jays will counter Darvish with twenty game winner J.A. Happ, whose fastball reliance should serve him well in defusing the Rangers&#8217; balanced lineup. Happ features roughly 75 percent hard-type offerings, but his success dating back to his second half with the Pirates has been less about that sheer volume of fastballs and more about the <em>way </em>the fastballs have been used. <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/">As Joshua Howsam pointed out at the end of August</a>, the separation in vertical movement between his four seam fastball and sinker is the largest among all starting pitchers, and has allowed Happ to create unpredictability on the mound when the surficial numbers suggest his 92 mile per hour fastballs <em>should </em>be entirely predictable and, in turn, hittable.</p>
<p>Where Darvish displayed some tilt with his pitch usage against lefties and righties, there are no such complexities with J.A. Happ. As Table 2 above demonstrates, outside of completely parking his changeup against same sided batters, there&#8217;s a general uniformity in his pitch usage patterns. His results this season have been strikingly consistent, as well with lefties hitting a meager .242/.304/.347 and righties just .227/.292/.377.</p>
<p>With just eight earned runs over his last five starts &#8212; good for a 2.38 ERA &#8212; Happ is entering the postseason on a bit of a roll run prevention wise, but the underlying numbers from his last two starts have been more than a tad troubling. The 6-foot-6 left hander recorded just three strikeouts against six walks over 13.2 innings of work against the Yankees and Red Sox, and even more disconcerting is the six whiffs across 199 total pitches; a swinging strike rate of just 3.0 percent. J.A. Happ has never been a huge whiff guy &#8212; his swinging strike rate of 9.6 percent in 2016 was a career best but still just 38th among 73 qualified starting pitchers, so while you&#8217;d like to see him inducing a few more awkward swings on Friday afternoon, he&#8217;s proven time and time again this season that when push comes to shove, his deception and guile alone can be more than enough. With an off day on Saturday and an eight-man bullpen, a stout if ultimately un-sexy five or six is all we need.</p>
<h3><strong>Keep an Eye On</strong></h3>
<p><strong>The Rangers&#8217; Horseshoes</strong></p>
<p>The Texas Rangers had the best record in the American League during the regular season, finishing the year at 95-57. Remarkably, they managed this despite an overall run differential of +8. <em>Plus eight </em>&#8211; as in, equivalent to a Pythagorean expected record of 82-80. Of the other seven remaining teams playing in the two Division Series, the next lowest run differential was the Wild Card winning Giants at +84. The Rangers flew in the face of conventional wisdom and advanced thinking for six months, lucking their way to an impossible 36-11 record in one run games &#8212; <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=2FY7V">the highest win percentage (.766) since 1901.</a> This helps explain how, despite outscoring the Rangers by 15 (36-21) over seven games this season, the Blue Jays were victorious in just four of the games. One typically associates dominant one-run-game records with a lights-out bullpen, but that&#8217;s hardly the case here as Texas relievers posted the sixth worst ERA (4.40) in the majors this season. Simply put, the organization has had a horseshoe up their backside since the beginning of April, and it&#8217;s good and time for someone to remove it.</p>
<p><strong>Always Underappreciated Adrian Beltre</strong></p>
<p>With a career that&#8217;s largely been spent under the radar, 37-year old Adrian Beltre hasn&#8217;t produced a sub-3 WARP season since he left Seattle seven years ago. Many casual fans fail to recognize it, but when watching Beltre, you&#8217;re in the presence of one of the best and most consistent third basemen in history, and a surefire future Hall of Famer. Barring a Bondsian run into his forties he&#8217;s unlikely to ever reach the level of the Phillies&#8217; Mike Schmidt (112.9 career WARP), but Beltre (69.7) already ranks ninth all-time in WARP among third basemen. With a freshly minted extension through 2018 signed in April in his back pocket, he&#8217;s feasibly within striking distance of Wade Boggs (80.3) way up there in fourth place. Beltre played in both of Texas&#8217; wins during last year&#8217;s ALDS matchup, but would play in just one of their three losses after suffering a back injury in Game Two. Forget the Colt-45; now back to full strength, the underappreciated third baseman is the Rangers&#8217; deadliest weapon, and should be handled with a fearful respect.</p>
<p><strong>Don&#8217;s Ailing Hip</strong></p>
<p>The reigning Most Valuable Player did not have a September to remember, as after Donaldson went 0-for-31 from the 4th to 11th, he was shelved for three days. The trainers prescribed rest as he tried to rid himself of the inflammation that had dogged him for weeks, eventually forcing him to an MRI which, thankfully, showed no structural damage. Donaldson returned to the field on the 15th and was much better statistically over the final 17 games of the regular season (.288/.436/.525), but he still hasn&#8217;t looked quite like his usual, explosive self despite the flashy <em>Lebron 10s</em> he&#8217;s been rocking. Donaldson&#8217;s importance to this team cannot be measured in MVP trophies, as he is legitimately the heart of the organization and the spirit animal of the fan base. For the Blue Jays to advance to their second consecutive Championship Series, Josh Donaldson needs to be Josh Donaldson. After one game (4-for-4 with a walk), he&#8217;s looking good.</p>
<h3><strong>Probable Lineup</strong></h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Rangers</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Gomez &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ian Desmond &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Beltran &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Adrian Beltre &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Roughned Odor &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Lucroy &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Shin-Soo Choo &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mitch Moreland &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Ezequiel Carrera &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Elvis Andrus &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h3>
<p>Game One was a smashing success; legitimately a best case scenario. Let&#8217;s dunk on &#8216;em again this afternoon and give the good guys two chances to end the series in Toronto &#8212; something to be truly thankful for on this holiday long weekend.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Blue Jays vs. Rangers: ALDS Game One Preview</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2016 13:21:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers Thursday October 6th, 2016 Written by Mike Passador and Joshua Howsam Buck Showalter strode off the mound fresh off a conference with Ubaldo Jimenez. Perhaps he told the lanky right hander to take his chances with Edwin Encarnacion rather than issue a free pass and face Jose Bautista with [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Thursday October 6th, 2016</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="https://twitter.com/Mike_Pandador" target="_blank">Mike Passador</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam</a></em></p>
<p>Buck Showalter strode off the mound fresh off a conference with Ubaldo Jimenez. Perhaps he told the lanky right hander to take his chances with Edwin Encarnacion rather than issue a free pass and face Jose Bautista with the bases loaded. Perhaps he told Jimenez to serve up a middle-middle fastball so they could sleep in their own beds tomorrow. Whatever was said, Encarnacion planted the pitch in the second deck and himself in Blue Jays lore with a mammoth blast.</p>
<p>Those heroics bring us here.</p>
<p>Here, of course, is Arlington, the spot where so many (fans and impartial viewers alike) hoped the path would lead. Buckle up.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays toyed with disaster in the season&#8217;s final weeks but found a way to get it done. The same symptoms of distress persisted in the wild card game, namely the team&#8217;s continued ineptitude with runners on base. Aside from a clutch single from Ezequiel Carrera, all of Toronto&#8217;s runs came on longballs. Three double plays certainly didn&#8217;t help the cause, but the Jays found a way to get it done yet again and dispatched the rival Orioles in extras.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays will face the Texas Rangers in the ALDS for the second consecutive season and will be looking for similar results. In a bit of role reversal from last season, it&#8217;s the powerful Rangers who earned the AL&#8217;s top seed and enter the series as favorites. The Blue Jays went 4-3 in their seven games against Texas this season (though just 1-2 on the road) after eliminating the Rangers in a drama-filled Game 5 in last year&#8217;s postseason. Punctuated with Jose Bautista&#8217;s bat flip for the ages, the aggrieved Rangers would try to exact some revenge in the seventh and final game of the regular season set and things got physical.</p>
<p>With two good teams who don&#8217;t like each other much and two good pitchers on the mound, expect a close, fiery game to kick off the ALDS.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchup:</h3>
<h4>Thursday, October 6th – 4:38 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA, 4.40 DRA) @ Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA, 2.65 DRA)</strong></p>
<p>Many assumed that this would be J.A. Happ&#8217;s start, allowing Sanchez to go in game two and thus be available for a game five, but the Jays have turned to last year&#8217;s postseason standout, Marco Estrada. The changeup specialist had a strange season, as he continued 2015&#8217;s dominance well into August, then suddenly went through a spell where he gave up 25 runs (24 earned) in 28 innings across six starts. That rough patch caused a lot of concern, as it was accompanied not just by a dip in velocity, but also a drop in the league-high &#8220;rise&#8221; on his fourseam fastball (see chart below). The common viewpoint was that his ailing back was finally starting to affect his on-field performance&#8230;when all of a sudden he turned right back into the pitcher from the first half. In his final three starts of the season, Estrada allowed just two runs on nine hits in 19 innings, striking out 19. Part of the turnaround was simply due to increased command and velocity, but he also began throwing fewer cutters. This seems like a good plan, as batters are slugging .535 on the pitch. If he continues to throw the ball as he has recently, the Rangers will be in some of trouble.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-15.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7273" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-15.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (15)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>The Blue Jays managed to miss Hamels both times they played Texas, meaning the last time any of their hitters has seen the Rangers ace was in last year&#8217;s ALDS. Just in case they haven&#8217;t been paying attention, he&#8217;s still very, very good. Though he scuffled a bit down the stretch (6.75 ERA in his last six starts), Hamels was easily the Rangers&#8217; best starter on the season. He topped 200 innings pitched and 190 strikeouts (he finished with 200) for the seventh straight year. Like Estrada, Hamels relies on a plus changeup, especially when facing right-handed hitters as exist on the Blue Jays, but this year he has also heavily increased his use of the cutter. In fact, he now throws it almost as much as his fourseam fastball (see chart below). The heavily varied pitch mix will be an adjustment for the Blue Jays, who seem to have trouble with pitchers who rely on multiple offerings. They&#8217;ll have to force Hamels to get the ball up, or it could be another low-scoring output from Toronto&#8217;s offence.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-16.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7274" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-16.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (16)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Bullpen Pecking Order<br />
</strong></p>
<p>The much-maligned Toronto bullpen deserves full marks for their work in the wild card game. Brett Cecil, Joe Biagini, Jason Grilli, Roberto Osuna and Francisco Liriano combined for five shutout innings and bought the offense enough time to push the team through to the next round of postseason play. It would seem as though those are the pitchers in John Gibbons&#8217; circle of trust at the moment and they&#8217;ll be the ones counted on for the remainder of October.</p>
<p>The mighty Rangers present some more difficult matchups thanks to a fairly even left/right split throughout the entire lineup. It makes the matchup game a puzzling one for Gibbons and might necessitate some uncomfortable at bats. To wit, Brett Cecil was pulled in the 7th inning after walking Chris Davis. Right-handed Joe Biagini was brought in to take on righty Jonathan Schoop (who actually fares better against righties) and left handed Michael Bourn. Gibbons played the (traditional) matchups and it all worked out, but it might not be so easy against the Rangers.</p>
<p>The Jays probably won&#8217;t have the same luxuries against Texas, whose Odor-Lucroy-Choo-Moreland run seems like Cecil&#8217;s territory. That looks like the safest bet but will also require a tough at bat against the right-handed Lucroy. Could they turn to a righty to take on Lucroy and then work through the next two batters? Or will they let Cecil sink or swim? The context of the game will help make the decision but there will be some major risk-reward moves made deep in games.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to see how Gibbons navigates the late innings with his limited slate of trustworthy relievers.</p>
<p><strong>The Running Game</strong></p>
<p>With the deadline addition of Carlos Gomez, the Rangers now feature four players with double digit steals (Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond, Rougned Odor, and Gomez), not to mention part time speedster Delino DeSchields Jr. After catching a league-leading 43.8 percent of basestealers in 2015, following back-to-back years of 38.4 percent rates, Russell Martin&#8217;s caught-stealing rate plummeted to a league-worst 16.4 percent among catchers who caught at least 85 games. When combined with Estrada on the mound &#8211; he allowed the 10th most stolen bases in the AL (12) &#8211; look for the Rangers to attempt to take a few extra bags in this game.</p>
<p><strong>Power Displays</strong></p>
<p>The Rangers lineup currently boasts seven players who have hit 20 or more home runs this season, including two players who topped 30 (Odor and Beltre) and that&#8217;s not counting Carlos Gomez. Gomez has been on an absolute tear since being acquired from the Houston Astros, hitting .284/.362/.543 in a Rangers uniform with eight home runs in just 33 games. He is definitely showing the form that made him a two-time All-Star with the Brewers.</p>
<p>On the flip side, the Jays have a number of mashers of their own. Edwin Encarnacion led the way with 42 long balls (plus one notable postseason home run), with Josh Donaldson not far behind him at 37. In addition to those two top of the order mashers, five other players hit 20 or more bombs, two of whom hit 24 (Michael Saunders and Troy Tulowitzki).</p>
<p>Ameriquest Rangers Globe Life Ballpark in Arlington (close approximation) isn&#8217;t quite the home run park it is known for, but with Estrada and Hamels on the mound (neither of whom is particularly home run stingy), don&#8217;t be surprised if a few balls find their way to the seats in this game. You might see a bat or two flipped as well.</p>
<p><strong>Bad Blood<br />
</strong></p>
<p>When you think about it, Hero and Villain are relative terms.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista enters this series with a bullseye on his back from just about every angle after his franchise-shaping dinger and the immortalized bat flip that followed led into a mid-may dustup between the two squads. For those who need a refresher, the man they call Joey Bats authored a signature moment by crushing a Sam Dyson pitch deep to left for a three run home run that recaptured the lead in a crazy seventh inning in the deciding game of last year&#8217;s ALDS. The Jays and Rangers played six games without incident this season, only for the aggrieved Rangers to take out their frustrations in the final regular season meeting between the clubs. In what was presumably Bautista&#8217;s final at bat of the game, he was plunked by rookie Matt Bush. He slid hard into second and angered Rougned Odor, who promptly landed a hard right hook on Bautista&#8217;s jaw. A real brawl followed, as did a continued war of words.</p>
<p>This is one of the matchups that the baseball world seemed to be clamoring for. If X represents the number of times we&#8217;ll see the bat flip in the next week, X+1 might be the number of times we see Odor&#8217;s punch. Tensions will be running high on both sides and the conversation is already dominating coverage of this series. Sam Dyson <a href="https://twitter.com/bruce_arthur/status/783749495930490880" target="_blank">chose not to talk about it</a> while Bautista <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/783827041548316672" target="_blank">offered a lengthy response</a> to being disliked. The best quote on the matter comes from the Toronto slugger: &#8220;<a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/783812549389070336" target="_blank">I&#8217;m not looking for revenge. I&#8217;m looking to win ball games.</a>&#8221;</p>
<p>Winning games is truly the best revenge. Hopefully both sides remember that nugget and set aside the frivolous macho crap to focus on a huge set of baseball games.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Texas Rangers</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Gomez &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ian Desmond &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Beltran &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Adrian Beltre &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Rougned Odor &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Lucroy &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Shin-Soo Choo &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mitch Moreland &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Ezequiel Carrera &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Elvis Andrus &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays head to Texas with a pair of daunting pitchers waiting for their arrival. In what&#8217;s surely to be a heated series, the Jays could do themselves a major favor by getting off to a quick start and winning one on the road. While that&#8217;s no small feat against Hamels and Darvish, the Jays will be countering with top notch starters of their own. If they can knock a timely hit or two they can set themselves up nicely for the trip back home.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Memories of a Bat Flip: Rangers Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/last-time-there-was-a-bat-flip-rangers-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/last-time-there-was-a-bat-flip-rangers-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 May 2016 13:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rangers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers May 2nd &#8211; May 5th Written by Joshua Howsam and Matt Gwin Thanks to a series win in Tampa Bay, the Toronto Blue Jays are one spot ahead in the AL East standings than they were in our last series preview. However, now they come home, only to face the AL West leading Texas [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">May 2nd &#8211; May 5th</h3>
<p>Written by Joshua Howsam and Matt Gwin</p>
<p>Thanks to a series win in Tampa Bay, the Toronto Blue Jays are one spot ahead in the AL East standings than they were in our last series preview. However, now they come home, only to face the AL West leading Texas Rangers. It&#8217;s undoubtedly true that this Toronto team is better than their record shows. On luck alone, they&#8217;re one win worse off than their Pythagorean record. On top of that, hitters like Edwin Encarnacion and Russell Martin just haven&#8217;t gotten their bats going. Fortunately for the team, they&#8217;ll just miss out on facing Rangers ace Cole Hamels.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, May 2nd – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p>R.A. Dickey vs. A.J. Griffin</p>
<p>R.A. Dickey will be taking the ball for the first time in May, with hopes of putting a disastrous April behind him. The 41-year old knuckleballer is no stranger to early season struggles, but his 6.75 ERA to this point is far and away Dickey&#8217;s worst first month performance as a Blue Jay. The knuckleball is supposed to make performance inconsistent, but to this point Dickey&#8217;s pitching has simply been consistently bad. He has only had one decent outing, and even in that one he allowed three runs in the first inning before throwing five shutout frames. Oftentimes it seems that any misplay causes the wheels to fall off with Dickey on the mound, so hopefully the defense can pick up some of the slack.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s the battle of initialed pitchers, as A.J. Griffin takes the mound for the boys from Arlington. Pitching for the first time since 2013 due to injuries, Griffin has had a very nice start to the 2016 season with a 3-0 record and 2.52 ERA in 25 innings across four starts. Those numbers are a bit unsustainable, however. Griffin isn&#8217;t striking out many batters while at the same time walking more than he ever has in the past. As a big-time flyball pitcher, Griffin has also been historically homer-prone (he led the league with 39 HR allowed in 2013) despite an early career home park of the cavernous O.Co Coliseum. This year he is allowing flyballs at an equal rate, but has cut his HR/FB in half, down to 6.1 percent which is well below average. While the Jays offense has been slumping, they&#8217;ve still been hitting the long ball, so look for that to continue against A.J. Griffin.</p>
<h4>Tuesday, May 3rd – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p>Marco Estrada vs. Martin Perez</p>
<p>Oh Estrada&#8230;what more can we ask of thee? Despite missing time during the spring (he made just one spring training start) and opening the season on the disabled list, Estrada has picked up right where he left off in 2015; he has a 2.92 ERA and has thrown at least six innings in three of the four games. In the other outing, he only went five, but somehow managed to allow only one run despite putting ten runners on base. The biggest reason he was able to get out of so many jams was the return of his strikeouts. Throughout his career, Estrada bounced between being an average strikeout pitcher and a very good strikeout pitcher. Then last year, he punched out hitters at a well below league-average rate of 18.1 percent. This year, Estrada&#8217;s K-rate is all the way up to 24.3 percent. If he can keep that up, and limit some of the walks (also a career high at 10.7 percent), he should be able to replicate his last outing against these Rangers when he allowed a solitary run in 6 1/3 innings in the ALDS.</p>
<p>Martin Perez has had a tough go of things in the early part of his career. After a solid 2013 as a 22-year-old, the young lefty tore his UCL and lost a bunch of time to Tommy John surgery. Since returning, he has induced groundballs at a very high rate but really struggles to miss bats. He posted a 5.1 K/9 in 2015 and is all the way down to 4.2 in the early going this year. The Jays haven&#8217;t exactly been contact machines in 2016, but a visit from Perez could really turn things around for some slumping hitters.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, May 4th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p>Aaron Sanchez vs. Colby Lewis</p>
<p>Thus far, we&#8217;ve seen five starts from Aaron Sanchez. On one hand, that seems like so very little. It&#8217;s probably just one fifth of what we&#8217;ll see from him this season. However, statistically speaking, his performance is starting to become very significant. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/" target="_blank">Research suggests that</a> strikeout rates stabilize at 70 batters faced, while walk rates stabilize at 170 batters faced; Aaron Sanchez has faced 129 batters. This meaning that Sanchez&#8217;s strikeout rate, at 22.5%, is becoming hard to continue to question. Of course, over a full season, that number will likely fluctuate, but it shouldn&#8217;t deviate too far from what we&#8217;ve already seen. As well, facing a struggling Rangers lineup almost certainly won&#8217;t be the cause of the deviation. In 2016, Rangers batters have a 20.0 K%.</p>
<p>To call Colby Lewis an enigma might be an understatement. Over the past few seasons, he&#8217;s gone from one of the more consistently underrated starters in the league to someone who&#8217;s entirely forgettable. A lot of the downfall has to do with the fact that <a href="http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangersheadlines/2014/04/13/breakthrough-surgery-gives-rangers-pitcher-ultimate-stoic-colby-lewis-another-chance" target="_blank">he missed a season due to surgery for a hip condition</a>. Since then, he hasn&#8217;t quite been the same. Lewis has never shied away from the long ball, but now he no longer seems to have an above average strikeout rate to compensate for it. Against the Blue Jays, one of MLB&#8217;s most prolific home run hitting teams, he&#8217;s going to have a lot of issues. I wouldn&#8217;t expect him to go more than five innings at best.</p>
<h4>Thursday, May 5th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p>J.A. Happ vs. Derek Holland</p>
<p>Over Happ&#8217;s first five starts, he&#8217;s gone six or seven innings each time, giving up a total of 10 earned runs. On its face, that seems rather good, but, despite a shiny ERA, it&#8217;s been a worrisome start to the season. Rather than pitching success, Happ&#8217;s 2.76 ERA has come on the back of the fact that he&#8217;s stranded 88.2% of batters (for context, his career average is 74.1%). As the strand rate regresses, Happ may need to attempt to go back to the high fastball usage that made him so successful with the Pirates in the latter half of 2015. In 2016, his fastball usage is at 37.84%, which is his lowest such total since April 2013. When Happ isn&#8217;t throwing the fastball, he&#8217;s not attacking hitters as much as he should. That&#8217;s going to be an issue.</p>
<p>In many ways, the beginning of Derek Holland&#8217;s season has been similar to J.A. Happ&#8217;s. On the surface, he&#8217;s prevented runs rather well, but his folly lies in his home run rate. In 2016, Holland has given up 0.62 home runs per nine innings, which is roughly half his career average of 1.18. A glance at Derek Holland&#8217;s <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=502706&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=month&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=05/02/2016&amp;s_type=2" target="_blank">Brooks Baseball page</a> shows us that he&#8217;s actually giving up MORE fly balls, yet somehow less home runs. Given that there&#8217;s no particular pitch usage trend to explain the change, that trend will almost certainly not continue.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The Jays are currently dealing with some banged up players, with Russell Martin unable to play back-to-back games, Michael Saunders nursing a sore hamstring and Josh Donaldson needing occasional time at DH to rest his calf, but all of them are still on the roster, so there are no changes from last series.</p>
<p>The Rangers are still without Shin-Soo Choo and Josh Hamilton (though the latter has just begun a rehab assignment), which means additional playing time for Nomar Mazara, Delino Deschileds, and Ryan Rua. The Rangers bullpen is also a big banged up, with last year&#8217;s primary setup man Keone Kela on the shelf for three months following elbow surgery. Ace Yu Darvish is on the mend following last year&#8217;s Tommy John surgery, but he won&#8217;t be back until late May at the earliest</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><b>Retribution</b></p>
<p>Everybody in Canada loved the Bat Flip. Many people in the rest of the World loved the Bat Flip. You know who didn&#8217;t love it? The Texas Rangers. It&#8217;s a sad thing to say, but they are almost certainly going to throw at Jose Bautista. In fact, it will probably happen in his first at-bat on Monday. What will be interesting to see is how Jose and the rest of the Blue Jays react, especially with knuckleballer R.A. Dickey on the mound. It will be on the umpiring crew to maintain order, or this series could get really ugly in a hurry.</p>
<p><b>Power Bats </b></p>
<p>The Blue Jays didn&#8217;t get a lot of <em>hits</em> against the Tampa Bay Rays, but they certainly hit their share of home runs. Of the 11 total hits in the series (a paltry number), seven left the yard. Look for this trend to continue as the four starters the Rangers are sending to the hill, with three of the four being very homer prone (Martin Perez is the exception). When you combine that with a return to the homer-happy Dome, there could be some fireworks in this series.</p>
<p><strong>Nomar Mazara</strong></p>
<p>When Shin-Soo Choo went down with injury, the Rangers turned to the 21-year-old top prospect, Nomar Mazara. He started off like a man on fire, hitting .444/.452/.593 with just three strikeouts in his first 31 plate appearances. In the 43 PA since then, the rookie has cooled off with a line of .250/.349/.361 and ten strikeouts. He has all the talent in the world, but if the Jays can keep him off base ahead of sluggers like Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre, they should have some success.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Rangers</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Rougnod Odor &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Nomar Mazara &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Adrian Beltre &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Prince Fielder &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Ian Desmond &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Mitch Moreland &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Justin Smoak &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Elvis Andrus &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Brett Nicholas &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Delino DeShields Jr. &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ryan Goins &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>To say that the Jays *need* to win now is somewhat foolish. Even after this series, there will still be 133 games, and a win now means no more than a win in September. With that said, it&#8217;d certainly be nice to win a few more series in the early going. For one thing, it would aid the increasing number of Jays fans who are already starting to panic. For another, it&#8217;ll help the squad get a better idea of what they may need to do at the trade deadline.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Revisiting J.A. Happ&#8217;s Offseason Contract</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:00:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marlins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wei-Yin Chen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yovani Gallardo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him from locking down a starting job. Although, there were a few memorable moments in his Jays career. As one example, Happ made the Opening Day rotation in 2013 as a result of Ricky Romero&#8217;s sudden decline. That was certainly memorable. Whether it was bad luck or his own inconsistency, Happ was never able to cement his place in the Jays’ rotation during his time with Toronto. This had been an established pattern throughout his career. 2015 was the first season in which he’d made more than 30 starts, and only the third time he’d appeared in more than 30 games.</p>
<p>Having the security of a three year deal will make Happ’s place in the rotation much more certain. Teams don’t pay $12 million dollars a year for a swing-man. The deal may have seemed suspect at the time, but rest of the offseason has made Happ&#8217;s contract look much better. Here are a few of the other comparable pitchers that signed this offseason. (Note: All numbers in the tables are 2015 totals)</p>
<h3>Happ and Wei-Yin Chen</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-99 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png" alt="HappChen" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Once I sat down to write this piece, Chen was the first comp to spring to mind. They’re both left-handers with some experience pitching in the AL East, and a reputation for not pitching deep into games. Looking at their career numbers rather than 2015, Chen is also someone who has historically out-performed his FIP, while Happ has generally undershot it. As well, Chen has been reliable for the Orioles, while Happ has tormented organizations with potential. Chen also has the benefit of moving from the competitive American League East to the less competitive National League East, while Happ is transitioning back to the AL after his time in Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>As for contracts, Chen signed a five-year deal with the Marlins worth $80 million dollars, which works out to an average annual value of $16 million per season. He will also cost the Marlins their second-round pick, as he declined a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. However, Chen is also a few years younger than Happ, which likely factored in to his getting a longer deal.</p>
<p>In a vacuum, Wei-Yin Chen is the better pitcher, and his going to a more favorable situation can’t hurt. With that said, his contract also gives him much more leverage with the opt-out after two seasons and the vesting option after six. The Jays, who would have had to give up their first rounder, were probably not seriously considering Chen at that price.</p>
<h3>Happ and Yovani Gallardo</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-101 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png" alt="happgallardo" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Despite his being effective against the Jays during the season, there were few free-agent pitchers that made Jays fans less excited than Gallardo. Though the baseball card stats (13-11, 3.42 ERA over 33 starts) look fine at first glance, there were several other things that hampered Gallardo’s value prior to his signing a contract with the Orioles. For one thing, his strikeout rate has cratered over the last several years, finishing 2015 at an ugly 5.9 K/9. For another, even though he made 33 starts, Gallardo didn’t throw many innings, averaging out at less than six per start. The last time Gallardo threw more than six innings in a start was June 27th, and that start was the only time all year he threw more than seven. Gallardo’s 2015 was his seventh full season in the Major Leagues, having notched 1473 innings in his career.One wonders if the miles on his arm are contributing to the waning strikeout rates and stamina.</p>
<p>The money (<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/possible-snag-in-deal-between-orioles-yovani-gallardo.html">and initially failed physical</a>) bore that out as Gallardo signed a two-year deal with the Orioles for $22 million, with a club option that could bring the total value of the deal up to $35 million. He did also cost the Orioles their first round selection, which would have been the 14<sup>th</sup> overall pick. They do get a compensation pick back with Chen signing with the Marlins, but it still ends up as a slight loss for them as they got a pitcher who&#8217;s probably going to be worse than Chen this year.</p>
<p>In the end, from only the stats, the balance of Gallardo’s career so far is certainly better than Happ’s. However, the declining innings and strikeouts from Gallardo, combined with his costing the Orioles a first round pick makes the Happ deal look like a better call. Does Gallardo’s contract being shorter make it better? Maybe, but teams generally shouldn’t throw away a first round pick for two years of a clearly declining starter.</p>
<h3>Happ and Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-100 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png" alt="HappEstrada" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>The 2015 statistics are different, but we clearly see two pitchers who&#8217;ve had similar career paths. Estrada, like Happ, has been inconsistent, previously bouncing in and out of the rotation with the Brewers. This seemed like it was going to continue in Toronto, as Estrada started the season in the bullpen, but he soon made his way into the rotation. Once that happened, the rest was history. He established himself as one of the Blue Jays’ best pitchers, posting career bests in starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts; leading to a 10<sup>th</sup> place finish in Cy Young voting. After that season, Estrada, like the others on this list, had the dreaded qualifying offer hanging over his head, which hampered his value. Despite having a better year, he signed for similar money to Happ.</p>
<p>If we look solely at the 2015 stats, it appears that the Jays got a bargain with Estrada. However, as is the case with the other players we&#8217;ve looked at, trends and the body of work are important. In comparison to others in this piece, Estrada simply didn’t have the track record of success before coming to the Blue Jays. They acquired him for Adam Lind in the 2014-15 offseason; a player the Brewers &#8220;liked&#8221; so much that they moved him to the Mariners prior to this season. While the qualifying offer didn&#8217;t severely hamper the market for Chen and Gallardo, it did for Estrada. Though, that also could have been a few troubling trends. Estrada&#8217;s FIP was the second-highest he’d had in a full season in the big leagues, and despite a career low ERA, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Estrada thrived on a fantastic change-up, and it will be interesting to see if an off-season of preparation can help the league adjust to him. Nevertheless, Estrada and Happ provide similar value for the Blue Jays in 2016, with Estrada probably being a little bit better.</p>
<h3>Happ and Ian Kennedy</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-102 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png" alt="HappKennedy" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This offseason, Ian Kennedy got five years and $70 million dollars from the Royals. This came after a season wherein he lost 15 games and had a 4.26 ERA. Oh&#8230;and and he’ll cost the Royals their first round pick. That’s not a joke. That actually happened. Of course, the Royals are coming off of two World Series appearances&#8230;so it&#8217;s hard to criticize that front office too much. Maybe it&#8217;s mechanical: Edinson Volquez had his best year with the Royals, spotting 96 mph fastballs on the corner against the Jays during the postseason. If they fixed Volquez, maybe they think they can fix Kennedy.</p>
<p>Kennedy was successful as recently as 2014, when he notched 13 wins, 201 innings, and a nice enough 3.63 ERA. He hasn&#8217;t always been bad. He’s also made 30 starts for six consecutive years, which is something to note in an age of increased pitcher injuries. As well, he did post a 9.3 K/9, which is a nice number from a starter. However, he&#8217;ll probably never reach the heights of his 2011 season in Arizona, when he finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, as he&#8217;s moving into the American League. The formerly touted Yankees prospect is more of a durable journeyman at this point. Although, given the construction of their team&#8230;maybe that’s what the Royals were looking for?</p>
<p>They have built fantastic bullpens, year after year, and maybe all they wanted was a pitcher who can go six innings and pass the ball off. As the Royals’ pick is somewhere in the 20s, a lost first rounder probably didn&#8217;t trouble them as much. Even then it’s still one less draft pick, spent on a pitcher who&#8217;s had one good season in the last three. Ultimately, this one’s the easiest to argue for the Jays, as Kennedy’s almost certainly a worse pitcher than Happ, save for that durability.</p>
<h3>Happ and David Price</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-103 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png" alt="HappPrice" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This is a hilariously unfair comparison for several reasons. David Price, by any measurement, is much, much better than J.A. Happ, and got way more money. The Red Sox didn’t even need to give up a draft pick to get him, as Price was acquired by the Blue Jays in a mid-season trade. One might use Happ’s stretch with the Pirates as a comparison, but playing the arbitrary endpoints game at the trade deadline is disingenuous at best. Taking the best stretch of Happ’s career and comparing it to an elite level starter&#8217;s usual output is a shaky attempt to justify the cavernous drop off from Price to Happ.</p>
<p>The reason Price is on this list is solely because he was the one whom Jays fans compared Happ to when he was signed. After spending prospects to get Price at the deadline, and watching him dominate down the stretch, fans (and I count myself in this group) harbored dreams of him staying with the Jays after his contract expired. Price certainly said all the right things about wanting to stay, but given how much he was going to cost, it was unlikely that he was going to return.</p>
<p>There were other holes for the Jays to fill, and future problems to consider. Estrada was a free agent, Mark Buehrle’s reliable 200 innings departed, and they had a club option on knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, leaving up to four potential vacancies in Toronto’s rotation. With an arbitration raise coming to MVP Josh Donaldson, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion’s respective free agencies looming after this season, committing $30 million+ per season to David Price just didn’t make a lot of sense. There are times when spending for high-end talent is the right call, but for the Jays, already stocked with a lot of great players, spreading the wealth around was much more pragmatic.</p>
<p>In the clear light of day, and with real baseball that counts just around the corner, we can look back and see that the J.A. Happ contract was fine&#8230;perhaps even good with how the pitching market developed. Seeing that potentially lesser pitchers signed for more money and cost draft picks, the Jays moving quickly on Happ looks much better. However, coming down from the high of David Price, it’s easy to see how Happ would have seemed disappointing earlier on in the offseason. It didn’t help that Happ had a prior history with the Jays; a history that some fans remember all too well (for the wrong reasons).</p>
<p>J.A. Happ isn’t exciting. He’s not an ace. He’s not someone you can reliably pencil in for 200 innings. He&#8217;s not someone who&#8217;s going to contend for the Cy Young every year. J.A. Happ is a multi-grain bagel with butter for breakfast: it&#8217;s okay, it gets the job done, but it’s not much fun, and you’re not really looking forward to it. David Price was the cinnamon roll with sugary frosting: delicious, enjoyable, and something you want to have again, even if it isn&#8217;t a great long-term decision for your health. If there’s something we’ve all learned growing up, it’s that taking the bagel is probably the smarter move.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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