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		<title>It&#8217;s Time to Make a Decision on Dalton Pompey</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/07/its-time-to-make-a-decision-on-dalton-pompey/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/07/its-time-to-make-a-decision-on-dalton-pompey/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2017 14:21:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Left Field]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Platoon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Position Battles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8890</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Player development is no easy task. Even after developing an overall future projection for a player there&#8217;s an incredulous number of questions that a team has to try and answer: How is the player&#8217;s work ethic? Is he mature enough to handle a tougher challenge at a higher level in the minor leagues? Will he [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Player development is no easy task. Even after developing an overall future projection for a player there&#8217;s an incredulous number of questions that a team has to try and answer:</p>
<p>How is the player&#8217;s work ethic? Is he mature enough to handle a tougher challenge at a higher level in the minor leagues? Will he be a good enough player at his present position to handle it in the major leagues? Will he be able to hit at a higher level? If he can&#8217;t, will the challenge of better pitching help him or hurt him?</p>
<p>In other words, there&#8217;s no flow chart for major league teams to follow. Even if you <em>do</em> take the time to carefully make each of the determinations listed above, there&#8217;s a very good chance that dumb luck will put an unforeseen hitch in the development process and invalidate all of your hard work.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s look at one scenario.</p>
<p>Imagine you&#8217;re an MLB team. You&#8217;ve got a Top 30 prospect who has hit well at every level of the minors. He&#8217;s young for his level, but has shown nothing to cause any doubts. This player plays a premium position on the diamond and it looks like he&#8217;ll be able to handle it at the major league level. This MLB team of yours is quite good and you intend to contend in the coming season. However, there&#8217;s a hole on your roster at a premium defensive position; the same position that your top prospect happens to play.</p>
<p>Do you call up the top prospect and give him a shot at the majors?</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re looking to compete and you haven&#8217;t been given any reason to doubt the player, then yes, you probably call him up.</p>
<p>Replace &#8216;him&#8217; with Dalton Pompey and &#8216;MLB team&#8217; with the Toronto Blue Jays and you&#8217;ve got the precise scenario that the Blue Jays&#8217; front office found themselves in prior to the 2015 season. They took a risk on Dalton Pompey and made him the starting centerfielder on Opening Day 2015.</p>
<p>As we now know, the Dalton Pompey experiment did not go as planned. In just over a month he&#8217;d gone from the Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; Toronto area superstar to taking at-bats in Buffalo (then New Hampshire).</p>
<p>Now, two years later, after a season in which the Blue Jays resigned Pompey to a role of little major league consideration, the consensus seems to be that there is little chance that he could be considered for a roster spot at the beginning of 2017. For example, when asked why Dalton Pompey hasn&#8217;t been given more consideration for Opening Day, <a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/215136284/blue-jays-inbox-can-dalton-pompey-make-team/"><span style="text-decoration: underline">MLB.com&#8217;s Gregor Chisholm noted</span></a> that the Jays still want full time at-bats for Pompey. He also noted another common sentiment, that, &#8220;Pompey is <em><i>only</i></em> 24 years old.&#8221; While not old for a baseball player in general, 24 would be old for a top hitting prospect getting his first full crack at the major leagues.</p>
<p>At some point the Blue Jays have to ask themselves: what are you trying to achieve by continuing to &#8216;develop&#8217; Dalton Pompey in the minors?</p>
<p>It&#8217;d be nice if Pompey had a little more power, sure. It&#8217;d also be nice if he made a little more contact. However, unless the Blue Jays&#8217; are drastically altering Dalton Pompey&#8217;s swing, only repetition and hard work will push him forward. In theory it would be better to work on that repetition in the minors; it&#8217;s a lower pressure environment. But Pompey has already played 170 games at AAA, at a time in which most prospects spend less than a season at the level and some skip it entirely. I&#8217;d argue that there&#8217;s not too much left for him there and he already possesses skills that can be leveraged into value at the major league level.</p>
<p>Conveniently, the Blue Jays also should have an opening for Dalton Pompey&#8217;s precise skill set. At present, the Blue Jays have a glut of outfield options, but none make for a perfect platoon without Dalton&#8217;s inclusion. The most likely LF scenario seems to be a platoon of Melvin Upton Jr. and Ezequiel Carrera, with Carrera filling the left-handed portion of it. However, while Carrera is indeed a left-handed hitter, he&#8217;s not a particularly good platoon partner &#8211; he has been 20 percent better against LHP than RHP in his career. Meanwhile, Dalton Pompey has consistently hit righties better than lefties throughout the minors.</p>
<p>Pompey&#8217;s impressive defense also provides some additional value with Jose Bautista starting in RF. As was noted in 2016, Bautista has become a <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/09/its-time-to-get-jose-bautista-out-of-the-outfield/"><span style="text-decoration: underline">remarkably poor defensive outfielder</span></a>. As such, late in games the Blue Jays would do well to get him out of the outfield, either by swapping him out to first base or taking him off entirely for a defensive replacement. A Pompey-Pillar-Upton outfield in the 8th and 9th innings would go a long way to ensuring that the Blue Jays don&#8217;t lose games late due to defensive errors in the corner outfield; an occurrence that was all too frequent with Bautista and Michael Saunders in 2016.</p>
<p>While this is just one opinion, it&#8217;s the decision I&#8217;d make with Dalton Pompey. But the important piece in this puzzle isn&#8217;t that the Blue Jays follow my advice to a tee, but that the team needs to commit one way or another. If they think he can still reach his previously held potential, then make it clear that he&#8217;s a part of the future, but not in the picture for the present. If not, then make use of the Pompey&#8217;s skills now or trade his talents away. It doesn&#8217;t do anyone any good to leave Dalton Pompey in the middle, unsure of what the future may hold.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">&#8220;I was left to my own devices. Many days fell away with nothing to show. And the walls kept tumbling down in the city that we love. Great clouds roll over the hills bringing darkness from above. But if you close your eyes, does it almost feel like nothing changed at all?&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: center">- <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F90Cw4l-8NY" target="_blank">Bastille&#8217;s Pompeii</a> or Dalton Pompey, you decide.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How the 26th Roster Spot Could Affect the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/24/how-the-26th-roster-spot-could-affect-the-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/24/how-the-26th-roster-spot-could-affect-the-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Nov 2016 17:49:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[26th man]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brandon Moss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CBA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Collective Bargaining Agreement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Platoon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rule 5 Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Rodriguez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8070</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You’re probably sick of Collective Bargaining Agreement news by this point. “They&#8217;re headed toward a lockout,” “they can avoid a lockout maybe…” But, if you skip past all of the saber-rattling and hyperbole, you can actually find some interesting nuggets about what is actually going on in these talks. It seems the MLB is fighting [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You’re probably sick of Collective Bargaining Agreement news by this point. “<a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/labor-peace-lockout-collective-bargaining-agreement-owners-players-baseball-112216" target="_blank">They&#8217;re headed toward a lockout</a>,” “<a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18124128" target="_blank">they can avoid a lockout <em>maybe</em>…</a>” But, if you skip past all of the saber-rattling and hyperbole, you can actually find some interesting nuggets about what is actually going on in these talks. It seems the MLB is fighting for an International Draft (which is causing holdups), draft pick compensation will no longer cost teams a pick, and most interestingly as it relates to the actual product on the field: rosters are going to expand.</p>
<p>It seems like<a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/report-mlb-is-likely-to-increase-roster-size-from-25-to-26-players-in-2017/" target="_blank"> the owners and the MLBPA have agreed to expand regular season rosters to 26 players</a> in exchange for shorter rosters (27 or 28) in September. The idea from the ownership side is pretty simple. By cutting down the number of September players, you eliminate the parade of relievers that so often turns games into four hour slogfests, and you save a little bit of money. In order for the union to agree to fewer players earning big league salaries in September, they asked for one more salary for the full season. It’s a reasonably fair deal financially, but it has very interesting implications for roster decisions.</p>
<p>As it relates to the Blue Jays, this extra spot can be very useful. As long as they actually try to improve their overall club instead of just adding an eighth reliever (that’s totally what they’re going to do), there’s potential to take advantage of this right now in free agency.</p>
<p>There has been a rumour out there for the last week or so that the Jays <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/sean-rodriguez-emerging-possible-fit-blue-jays/" target="_blank">are high on Sean Rodriguez</a> as a sort of “jack-of-all-trades” type of utility player. This makes a lot of sense, since Rodriguez can passably play every position except pitcher and catcher (he actually played all seven last year). Unfortunately he isn’t a great hitter; last year’s career year notwithstanding. As such, he isn’t worth playing in a strict platoon. His career .249/.344/.411 against lefties just isn’t good enough for the role. Instead, his value comes from being able to back up many positions capably while tying up only one roster spot.</p>
<p>With the new 26th man, that particular skill isn&#8217;t quite as necessary. A team like the Blue Jays can go sign someone like Trevor Plouffe who can play 1B, 3B, and 2B in a pinch, or Steve Pearce, who adds the corner outfield to his list. Both of those guys actually hit lefties <em>well</em> (better in Pearce’s case). Then the club can just assign another spot to an elite defender in the middle infield. They would lose a little offensively at 2B and SS, but gain it where you expect the player to be getting his most at-bats (in this case platooning with Justin Smoak) without spending much extra money, if any.</p>
<p>On the flip side, you could sign Rodriguez and pair him with someone who plays the other side of the platoon, like Pedro Alvarez or Brandon Moss, and actually get real production out of first base. Neither of those players are can hit lefties at all, so they shouldn’t cost a fortune to sign. And while Rodriguez still isn&#8217;t the lefty masher you want, if there are righty crushers on the other side, he&#8217;s more than capable of filling the platoon/super-sub role. Additionally, with the extra spot on the roster, you can afford to hold Justin Smoak as a true backup. This provides very valuable offense at 1B, with an extremely capable backup at every other spot on the field.</p>
<p>The same principles would apply in the outfield as well. Platoons no longer have the same impact on roster depth that they used to. No matter which way they go (as long as it’s a bat), the bigger roster can gives the Blue Jays more options than they had before. This is a big help to a team that may not be able to afford to play for difference-makers like Dexter Fowler, Yoenis Cespedes, or Edwin Encarnacion and still filling out the remaining holes.</p>
<p>That’s not to say there are no potential downsides to the additional roster vacancy, but those apply more to the future.</p>
<p>When the Blue Jays were setting their 40-man roster recently, they chose to add Anthony Alford, Richard Urena, and Ryan Borucki because they felt those players could all help a big league club enough right now, and thus would be at risk of Rule 5 selection. Those really shouldn&#8217;t have surprised anybody.</p>
<p>However, they decided <em>not</em> to protect Francisco Rios and Angel Perdomo. Rios dominated in Lansing before pitching very well in Dunedin (and appearing in the Futures Game), and Perdomo struck out 11.1 batters per nine in Lansing. Even with those performances, the logic behind exposing them was solid. Both of those pitchers are too raw and too far away to help in any sense this year. But with the extra spot, more teams can afford to grab guys like Perdomo/Rios and just stash them in the bullpen for a year without worrying about harming the on field product. The pitchers would get a few long relief outings here and there, and then just got back to the minors next year to continue their growth as starters. That&#8217;s not to say they <em>will</em> be chosen, but the odds definitely go way up.</p>
<p>It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out in Toronto, both in the short and long term. With the extra options, this is just one more opportunity for a smart front office to get a leg up on the competition.</p>
<p>Hopefully Messrs. Shapiro and Atkins are up to the task.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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