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	<title>Toronto &#187; New York Yankees</title>
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		<title>Billy McKinney is Looking Forward to The Next Chapter of his Career</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/20/billy-mckinney-is-looking-forward-to-his-next-chapter/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Aug 2018 14:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16599</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK &#8211; Billy McKinney made his MLB debut on March 30, 2018 at the Rogers Centre. On March 31, he crashed into the left field wall and sprained the AC joint in his left shoulder. It would be his last taste of the big leagues until Saturday afternoon. Fittingly, McKinney made his Blue Jays [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK &#8211; Billy McKinney made his MLB debut on March 30, 2018 at the Rogers Centre. On March 31, he crashed into the left field wall and sprained the AC joint in his left shoulder. It would be his last taste of the big leagues until Saturday afternoon.</p>
<p>Fittingly, McKinney made his Blue Jays debut in New York, batting leadoff against his former team on a sunny Saturday where the Yankees honored their 1998 championship team. His placement atop the lineup card that day surprised him “a little bit” but he was thankful for the opportunity.</p>
<p>It’s been a winding road for the outfielder, a former first-round selection who had now been traded three times with just two major league games under his belt. While it means he hasn’t yet found a team that is willing to rule him untouchable, it also means that multiple teams have deemed him a player worth pinning hopes on in the future. That non-traditional path is something that McKinney recognizes, and his take was in keeping with his appreciative tone throughout the pregame media scrum.</p>
<p><em>“I guess I’ve kinda had a different path through my career, being traded a few times, but it’s been an honour to be a part of it and it’s really nice being a part of organizations that value me. So I’m really appreciative, especially to the Blue Jays for this opportunity, being here. Just looking forward to the new journey and the next chapter of my life.”</em></p>
<p>This trade did feel more unique than the previous two, when he was a prospect who would one day impact the big club’s plans. This time McKinney had earned a spot on the Opening Day roster. But after initial word of the deal it was old hat for a player who knows what it’s like to get dealt. When asked if things felt different this time with him having made his debut and been on the cusp of making the big leagues full-time, McKinney concurred.</p>
<p><em>“A little bit. Being so close to the big leagues makes it a little different because you can kind of taste it, so it’s pretty cool to be in that scenario but it’s the same aspect of packing up your stuff, meeting a new team, meeting the new guys and just getting to know your teammates. It’s all the same once it gets to that part.”</em></p>
<p>Given the Yankees’ heavy involvement in numerous trade deadline rumors it eventually dawned on McKinney that he could be part of a package going the other way, though it took some time for that feeling to settle in.</p>
<p><em>“I wasn’t thinking so but when I got scratched from one of our games in July I kind of had a feeling that day that it was going to happen and I got a text from (Brandon) Drury to ask if I’d heard anything, so that’s when I kind of had a feeling that it was going to happen.”</em></p>
<p>The Blue Jays are thought to have one long-term player currently in the outfield with Randal Grichuk, but there are question marks about the two remaining spots down the line. While Dwight Smith Jr., Anthony Alford and Dalton Pompey have all risen the ranks to suit up for the Jays in the past, it was the newcomer who got the call when Luke Maile was placed on the paternity list.</p>
<blockquote><p>“I guess I’ve kinda had a different path through my career, being traded a few times, but it’s been an honour to be a part of it and it’s really nice being a part of organizations that value me.”</p></blockquote>
<p>Although McKinney was the new kid on the block as he strolled into the clubhouse before Friday night’s game, Bisons bag in tow, it wasn’t all new. Sean Reid-Foley, Danny Jansen, and Tim Mayza were among the Jays to extend a welcome and greet a player that they’ve shared the field with over the last month. Having some semblance of continuity should help McKinney adjust to his new team.</p>
<p><em>“It makes it a little easier. They’ve helped me. I don’t want to be the new guy getting in the way so I just try to stay behind the scenes and get to know all the new guys. But yeah, having Danny and Sean here is really nice and they’re great players but also great people so it’s really been a joy getting to know them, being in the organization, and I’m looking forward to playing with them in the future.”</em></p>
<p>Because his time in Buffalo has coincided with the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., you can be sure the subject came up in conversation. McKinney says he’s been extremely impressed by watching Vlad but is equally impressed by how mature he is off the field, calling him “a great player and a great person” as well as a “guy you really want to root for.”</p>
<p>As for his own work, one thing that McKinney’s shown at the Triple-A level this year is increased power. In 2017 he’s hit 16 home runs in 306 plate appearances between Scranton and Buffalo after hitting double digits only twice in his other minor league stops: 10 in 276 plate appearances in Triple-A in 2017 and 10 in A+ as a member of the Athletics organization back in 2014. This year the power has been obvious, but it’s also come as his on-base numbers slide. Showcasing that pop is not something that McKinney has put more emphasis on, however.</p>
<p><em>“No. Me getting hurt early in the year it kind of felt like I lost my whole spring training that I worked for all offseason. In that aspect I felt like I was getting back to myself throughout the year and trying to get back to the player that I still am. I’ve had a few balls go out for me and that’s nice, I’ve also had some get caught so it’s all part of the game and I just try to hit the ball hard every day. If it goes out, great, if not it’s just part of it.”</em></p>
<p>McKinney is right to feel that way, as his walk and strikeout numbers have remained fairly consistent – it’s a batting average that’s coming in lower than ever before as a function of poor luck on batted balls which is driving the OBP dip. McKinney posted a .245 BABIP with the RailRiders in 2018 and is just at .222 in his brief stint with the Bisons after never posting a BABIP below .277 in any stop at the minor league level.</p>
<p>While the injuries and a bit of bad luck have slowed his momentum, McKinney has also used the opportunity to soak things in as an observer and get a sense of what it’s like for players to ply their craft at the highest level as he prepares to launch his own career as a professional at the highest level.</p>
<p><em>“You know, I sat around and watched for the last few years, just watching these guys, how they go about their business, how they work, and just how a true big leaguer goes about their business and I just try to emulate that as much as possible. I try to play my game obviously but going about things the right way is my goal.”</em></p>
<p>And for the record, McKinney has no ill will towards the Rogers Centre wall that put him on the DL and eventually landed him with the Jays.</p>
<p>“No, no, nah,” McKinney says through a light chuckle. “Like I said it holds a special place in my heart. Unfortunately I got hurt but thankfully I’m healthy now and I’m ready to roll and looking forward to the future.”</p>
<p>McKinney’s first day in a Blue Jays uniform was a mixed bag. He drew a walk but was picked off of first. He drove in two runs with a bases-loaded single but was thrown out at third trying to capitalize on an error in right field, though the misplay did allow a third run to score. It ended with a single in the ninth and more good than bad. His former standing as a top-flight prospect plus the potential for him to get significant playing time in September and beyond is something for Blue Jays fans to watch as they too look forward to the next chapter.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Yankees</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-yankees-5/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Sep 2017 15:47:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13608</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Mike Passador, Gideon Turk, and Elie Waitzer Something to Play for? While the lack of furious playoff races means that few teams have consequential games on tap this weekend, there’s still a little bit of intrigue on both sides of this matchup. The Yankees enter this series three games back of the division-leading [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Mike Passador, Gideon Turk, and Elie Waitzer</span></i></p>
<p><b>Something to Play for?</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While the lack of furious playoff races means that few teams have consequential games on tap this weekend, there’s still a little bit of intrigue on both sides of this matchup. The Yankees enter this series three games back of the division-leading Red Sox, and while the odds of them catching up are slim, Boston does have to face the juggernaut Astros to close things out. Stranger things have happened, so perhaps New York will have a little extra urgency over these next three.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Of course, one Yankee loss or Red Sox win would lock the top of the AL East into place. The same can’t be said for the bottom of the division, with the Blue Jays and Orioles tied at 75-84 and just two games back of the Rays. For a team that has spent every day of 2017 in the AL East basement, there would certainly be some joy in leapfrogging someone before the buzzer sounds.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If the East is settled on Friday, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Yankees pump the brakes on Saturday and Sunday, preserving their most important position players and lethal bullpen arms for the Wild Card game. It would open the door for Toronto to play against a skeleton squad. And even if Toronto also chooses to sit <em>their</em> stars it’d at least improve their chances of taking a game or two.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sensible draft pick considerations aside, it’d be incredibly satisfying to finish ahead of Baltimore or Tampa Bay (but especially Baltimore). Little victories, people.</span></p>
<p><b>It&#8217;s Finally Over</b></p>
<p>We have reached the conclusion. At long last, the Toronto Blue Jays are going to be done playing baseball in 2017 after this series in New York, bringing a merciful end to what has been a thoroughly disappointing season. Need to be reminded of some of the bad things to happen to the Blue Jays this year? How about we discuss a few, and hope that in 2018, we&#8217;ll have a lot more positives than negatives to talk about.</p>
<p>Things got started in almost the worst way possible, with the club beginning their season at 1-9. Nobody was having any sustainable offensive success, and the only bright spot was Kevin Pillar learning how to take a pitch. Unfortunately, that was short-lived, and Pillar quickly fell back to earth. April also saw injuries to Josh Donaldson and Aaron Sanchez and featured the start of underwhelming campaigns from Kendrys Morales and Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>Sanchez never recover fully and he ended up only pitching in 36 innings this season. His lingering blister problems not only impacted his 2017 season, but they have also cast doubt on his future in baseball. One has to wonder if he will ever be able to stay healthy and pitch successfully in the major leagues, or if his blister issues will keep on recurring as they did this season and prevent him from having success at all.</p>
<p>Finally, one would be remiss to discuss the terribleness of 2017 without mentioning Jason Grilli. The fireballer who turned his 2016 season around and helped the Blue Jays make the postseason came into this year as a key cog in the Blue Jays bullpen. He was anything but; before he was released in June, he had a 6.97 ERA. He allowed more home runs this year with the Blue Jays than he did in 2016, with half of the innings pitched, and the Blue Jays lost in 17 of the 26 games in which he appeared. If this represents his final season in the majors&#8230;Well&#8230;Yeah&#8230;It wasn&#8217;t a pretty one.</p>
<p><b>Bird Is The Word</b></p>
<p>Before Aaron Judge and before Gary Sanchez, there was Greg Bird. The hype was mostly due to his headline-friendly last name, but a lot of it was deserved after he posted a .312 TAv in a 46 game tryout down the stretch in 2015. Then he sat out the 2016 season with a torn labrum, stumbled out of the gates this season (.107/.265/.214 in April), then hit the DL with a serious injury again.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">So you’re forgiven if you thought you could forget about Greg Bird. But since he’s coming to town, you should probably know that he has hit five homers over his past nine games and has generally been crushing the ball since his return in late August. His season stats are still putrid, but he’s been one of the Yankees’ hottest bats during their dominant September run.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That fact is extra scary if you’re the Twins because the Yankees were doing just fine before Bird turned it on. If Bird can keep up his recent success, New York’s lineup could be one of the deepest in the playoffs.</span></p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Yankees</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Jul 2017 16:39:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12142</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Joshua Howsam, Andrew Munn, and Gideon Turk Running Wild With the acquisition of former Cubs catcher Miguel Montero &#8211; and the likely option of Luke Maile &#8211; the Blue Jays now possess one of the least successful throwing tandems in baseball. Incumbent Russell Martin has thrown out just six of 40 attempted basestealers [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Joshua Howsam, Andrew Munn, and Gideon Turk</span></i></p>
<h3>Running Wild</h3>
<p>With the <a title="Blue Jays Acquire Catcher Miguel Montero" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/03/blue-jays-acquire-catcher-miguel-montero/" target="_blank">acquisition of former Cubs catcher Miguel Montero</a> &#8211; and the likely option of Luke Maile &#8211; the Blue Jays now possess one of the least successful throwing tandems in baseball. Incumbent Russell Martin has thrown out just six of 40 attempted basestealers (15 percent) this season, yet Montero has been even worse, catching just one runner in 32 attempts. The latter&#8217;s issues led to his eventual release after he <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/cubs-catcher-montero-blames-arrieta-for-nats-7-stolen-bases/2017/06/27/5a122b7e-5bb4-11e7-aa69-3964a7d55207_story.html" target="_blank">publicly blamed his struggles on the slow efforts</a> to the plate from Chicago&#8217;s starting pitchers. Depending on which pitcher he gets with Toronto, it might not be much better.</p>
<p>Oddly enough, Martin and Montero used to both be among baseball&#8217;s best at throwing out would-be basestealers. Martin led the league with a 44 percent caught stealing rate in 2015 and Montero led the NL in 2011 at 40 percent then followed that up with a 42 percent rate in 2012. That&#8217;s quite the fall from grace, at least partially attributable to injury for Montero, but more likely just the march of time.</p>
<p>The Yankees thus pose an unfortunate problem, as they currently sit tied for third in the AL in stolen bases with 52, having been successful on 78.8 percent of their attempts (second only to KC, who has attempted 18 fewer steals than New York). Aaron Hicks and his seven stolen bases are currently on the shelf, but the rest of the top five Yankee thieves are very much active. In particular, look for Brett Gardner (10 SB) and Jacoby Ellsbury (9) to take advantage of the Toronto catching duo.</p>
<p>As such, it will be key for the Blue Jays pitchers &#8211; starting with Marcus Stroman on Monday &#8211; to keep those men off base. If they <em>do</em> reach, the Jays will have to be creative with pickoffs and pitchouts in an effort to keep those runners away from scoring position ahead of big bats like Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez.</p>
<h3><b>The Eternal Fountain of Yankees Prospects</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Much has been made of the Yankees quick and efficient reload of their farm system. Young guns Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird have all introduced themselves rather loudly to the league over the past couple of seasons, giving people reason to fear the resurgence of the Evil Empire in the Bronx. Now, due to a string of injuries to Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, and Tyler Austin, the Yankees have called up yet another young, heralded prospect in the form of outfielder Clint Frazier.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The 6’1, 190-pound right fielder was originally drafted fif</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> overall by the Indians in 2013 and began his professional career by immediately tearing up every level of the minors he played at. By July 2016, Frazier had made his way to Triple-A as a 21-year-old when was traded to the Yankees as the centrepiece of a package in exchange for the services of Andrew Miller. After initially struggling to make contact after the trade, Frazier earned the nod to the majors by hitting .257/.345/.474 with 12 homers at Triple-A this season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Part of the legend of Frazier comes not only from his play in the minors, but also from his demeanor and presence on the field. There are</span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=297"> <span style="font-weight: 400">two</span></a><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=311"> <span style="font-weight: 400">reports</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> for Frazier available on Baseball Prospectus, where he is likened to an explosive football player with biceps the size of Popeye the Sailor. In other words, expect Buck and Pat to have a field day raving about Frazier’s athletic body this week. While he has been lauded for his explosive bat speed and raw power, some scouts have questioned whether this will translate to major league success given Frazier’s swing and miss issues. However, nobody is divided on his energetic and intense approach to the game which have made him an exciting prospect to follow through the minors.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Clint Frazier will likely get playing time this series due to the aforementioned injuries to several Yankees starters. The Yankees have seen some outstanding play from their recent call-ups to the majors; specifically Gary Sanchez’s insane run in late of August last season that almost won him AL Rookie of the Year for two months of play and Aaron Judge’s 2017 campaign that thus far has been MVP-worthy. Frazier could provide a similar impact for the Yankees and he got off to a great start on Saturday with two hits, a home run, and one bawling mother.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1562972683&amp;topic_id=11493214&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While we may not get to see him play with his </span><a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/how-twitter-reacted-to-clint-frazier-getting-a-haircut-to-appease-the-yankees/"><span style="font-weight: 400">long and fiery red mane</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, Clint Frazier’s hyper-athleticism and substantial hype entering the majors could make it another long series for the Blue Jays in the Bronx.</span></p>
<h3>You Better Like Dingers</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Despite the Blue Jays being decidedly awful at playing the game of baseball this season, they do have a few players that are actually quite entertaining to watch. One of those is Justin Smoak, the failed prospect who will start for the American League in the All-Star game next week in Miami. Although Smoak’s overall game has been good, what has made him the best first baseman in the league has been his power numbers, with 22 home runs and a .292 ISO thus far in 2017.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">For the Yankees, their big bopper is Aaron Judge, the phenom who has taken MLB by storm with 27 home runs through the first half of the season. However, their power doesn’t stop with Judge. Even if one were to remove Judge’s bombs, the Yankees other 98 bombs would still rank 16th in MLB. That’s a lot of home runs, and they are a big reason why the Yankees are in a playoff position right now. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Then, there’s Yankee Stadium. By </span><a style="font-weight: bold" href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor"><span style="font-weight: 400">2017 Park Factors</span></a>, it is the second most friendly ballpark in the majors for hitting home runs with a park factor of 1.413. That&#8217;s all a recipe for a lot of home runs, though chances are most of them will come from the New York side. The Blue Jays, who have familiarized themselves with the top of the long ball leaderboard over the course of the past several seasons, now find themselves more towards the middle of the pack in 13th place after Sunday&#8217;s games. But hey, maybe the Blue Jays will decide that this is the series where they will play like everybody thought they would and home runs will be hit for both sides of this battle!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch For Against the Yankees</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jun 2017 14:54:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Matt Gwin, Rachael McDaniel, and Joshua Howsam Attack of the Yankees Young-ins The Yankees have the second best record in the American League. At an active roster age of 28.1 years, they&#8217;re also quite young. If it were any other team, that’d be a nice feat, but for the ‘aging’ Yankees, it’s seems [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i>Written by Matt Gwin, Rachael McDaniel, and Joshua Howsam</i></p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">Attack of the Yankees Young-ins</h3>
<p>The Yankees have the second best record in the American League. At an active roster age of 28.1 years, they&#8217;re also quite young.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Rplot01.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11310" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Rplot01.jpg" alt="Rplot01" width="500" height="367" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If it were any other team, that’d be a nice feat, but for the ‘aging’ Yankees, it’s </span><em><span style="font-weight: 400">seems</span> </em><span style="font-weight: 400">like a miracle. Seem is the operative word here, however, as the Yankees have actually been de-aging since their most recent peak average age of 31.8 in 2013. However, there’s a reason that we’ve been trained to think of this team as being old. Not since 1992 have the Yankees finished the season with an average age under 29 years. Ergo, the last time that the Yankees were as young of a team as they are right now, Roberto Osuna hadn’t even been conceived.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">New York took an interesting path to get to this point, as well. Unlike the Astros and Cubs of this world, the Yankees never opted for an everything must go fire sale. Instead, a bout of patience, timely trades, and player development have gotten them to their current point.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In this series, the Blue Jays will be facing New York’s youngest player in 23-year-old starter Luis Severino as well as their third youngest player in 24-year-old starter Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees’ starters will be caught by 24-year-old catcher Gary Sanchez and their lineup will be anchored by 25-year-old outfielder and offensive world beater Aaron Judge. Judge has been so good to start this season that with Angels’ youthful phenom Mike Trout injured, some think Aaron could win the </span><a href="http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-aaron-judge-real-shot-al-mvp-mike-trout-article-1.3206607"><span style="font-weight: 400">AL MVP Award</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This isn’t all to say that the Yankees are devoid of veterans, however, as New York’s first starter will be their second oldest player: 36-year-old C.C. Sabathia. But it does mark quite a stark contrast with a truly aging Toronto team that has refused to adjust and retool. Players like Marcus Stroman, Devon Travis, and Kevin Pillar, who we generally think of as being on the younger side of the team, are all well older than the four key Yankees players mentioned above. In fact, in terms of the Blue Jays core players, only Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna are under the age of 26. Let&#8217;s just hope this team of aging stars can outdo the Yankees&#8217; young-ins.</span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>CC Sabathia Is Commanding His Cutter Again</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">We’re only two months into the 2017 baseball season, but for C.C. Sabathia, this year has already been quite the roller coaster ride. After beginning the year with three consecutive quality starts, allowing only three earned runs over 18.1 innings pitched, Sabathia followed this up with four consecutive starts allowing four or more earned runs. The Yankees managed to win two of these games thanks to their offense, but concerns about Sabathia’s longevity in the Yankees rotation began to be bandied about in earnest.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Over his last three starts, though, Sabathia has done much to quiet such concerns, seemingly having reverted to the fine form he showed in his first three starts. Since his 5-3 loss against the Reds on May 9th, he has once again allowed only three earned runs over 18 innings pitched, most recently striking out nine batters over 6.1 innings in a 3-2 win over the A’s.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">What was going wrong for Sabathia during his rough stretch, and what has he done to turn it around, at least for now? Sabathia himself imputes his recent success not to any mechanical changes, but rather to increased focus on locating his cutter.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sabathia described his use of the cutter over his four bad starts as “<a href="http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/cc-sabathia-has-third-straight-solid-start-1.13674292" target="_blank">a little bit lazy</a>” &#8211; instead of riding in on the hands of right-handed hitters, his cutters would stay over the plate, making them an eminently hittable pitch. Here’s where Sabathia’s cutters ended up during his four bad starts.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/bad-sabathia.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11312" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/bad-sabathia.png" alt="bad sabathia" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Almost half of the 67 cutters Sabathia threw to right-handed batters over this period ended up in the strike zone. As a result, right-handed batters hit .407 and slugged .741 against this pitch.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Compare that to where Sabathia’s cutters have been located over his past three quality starts: </span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/good-sabathia.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11313" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/good-sabathia.png" alt="good sabathia" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Instead of staying on the inner half of the strike zone, Sabathia’s cutters have tended to run inside on right-handed hitters, to great success. Right-handed hitters’ batting average against the cutter over Sabathia’s past three games has dropped all the way down to .174, and Sabathia has generated nine strikeouts with the pitch &#8211; as opposed to three strikeouts over his four bad starts.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sabathia has consistently thrown the cutter around 30 percent of the time this season. With the Jays’ lineup heavy with right-handed hitters, Sabathia will likely continue to use it frequently in his Thursday start against the Jays &#8211; and while the Jays scored six runs off Sabathia last time they faced him, that start was in the midst of Sabathia’s period of struggle commanding the cutter. (And the Jays lost that game anyway.) The Jays’ success, or lack thereof, in the series opener should have a lot to do with Sabathia’s command of this pitch against the Jays’ right-handed power. </span></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Those Tired Arms</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; recent string of wins has fans all excited about the prospects of this club, especially with Liriano rejoining the club this weekend, but they have come with something of a price. Of the Blue Jays&#8217; eight wins (in their last nine games), only two game with a margin of greater than two runs runs. That has meant an awful lot of work for the quintet of Roberto Osuna, Joe Smith, Ryan Tepera, Danny Barnes, and Aaron Loup. That group has thrown 22 innings across that stretch in 24 appearances.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not all that hard to see why John Gibbons has relied so heavily on those five arms, as while Joe Smith and Roberto Osuna have ERAs slightly above 3.00, the case could easily be made that those two have been the two best options. Osuna has been dynamite since <a title="Roberto Osuna is Back to Doing What He Does Best" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/12/roberto-osuna-back-to-doing-what-he-does-best/" target="_blank">junking to his twoseam fastball</a>, and Joe Smith has 39 strikeouts in just 25 2/3 innings. Those two lock down the eighth and ninth, and the three-headed trio of Barnes, Loup, and Tepera are handling the middle innings (with a combined ERA of 2.65) with ease.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t really anything new during this winning streak either, as the Blue Jays relief corps leads the AL in innings pitched out of the bullpen (193), despite the second place Mariners (191) having played three extra games. They also lead in innings per game (3.8) and total reliever outings (a whopping 188, which is 12 ahead of the second place Mariners). That means that not only are Jays relievers tossing a bunch of innings as a unit, they&#8217;re using so many different pitchers that nobody is really getting much rest. This is a far cry from last year when the Blue Jays led baseball in innings pitched from their <em>starters</em>. Obviously a big part of this has been the injuries to 3/5 of the rotation, combined with ineffectiveness from the fill-ins, but it is clearly an area of concern.</p>
<p>There is some potential good news on the horizon, however. Not only will the returns of Liriano and Happ and the continued build of Joe Biagini hopefully provide more innings from the rotation, but the Jays are starting to see a couple of out of favour relievers round into form.</p>
<p>Jason Grilli probably would have been on the DFA bubble if not for the injuries. To say his early season numbers were bad would be an understatement. But things have looked much better of late for the veteran righty; he hasn&#8217;t walked a batter in his last nine outings, eight of which have been scoreless. J.P. Howell isn&#8217;t quite there yet, but he has put up three scoreless outing in a row, despite pitching full innings (and four outs in one of them) instead of the one or two batter bursts that he was expected to be throwing when signed.</p>
<p>With Osuna, Smith, and Loup likely unavailable for the opener, combined with the potent Yankees offense (second in the AL in runs) potentially knocking a starter or two out early during the series, the Blue Jays are really going to need that secondary set of relievers to perform. If that doesn&#8217;t happen, some of these games could get out hand in a hurry.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Yankees 3; Wild Finish Gives Toronto Their Third Straight Victory</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/25/recap-blue-jays-4-yankees-3-wild-finish-gives-toronto-their-third-straight-victory/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Sep 2016 20:29:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Coming off of two straight shutouts of the New York Yankees to start the weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays were looking to dominate again today against a suddenly free falling Yankees team. Marco Estrada had to pitch out of trouble a couple of times, but he came up in the clutch and escaped a seventh inning [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Coming off of two straight shutouts of the New York Yankees to start the weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays were looking to dominate again today against a suddenly free falling Yankees team. Marco Estrada had to pitch out of trouble a couple of times, but he came up in the clutch and escaped a seventh inning jam by striking out the side. In the end, Estrada lasted seven innings, allowed four hits, two walks, and one earned run on Didi Gregorius&#8217; no-out solo home run in the seventh inning.</p>
<p>On the offensive side of things, the Blue Jays were silent for most of the game. Jose Bautista got things started in the fourth inning with a solo home run of his own, but that was the only time the Blue Jays would score until the eighth inning. In the seventh, Troy Tulowitzki and Michael Saunders hit back-to-back singles to lead off the inning, and Kevin Pillar bunted them over on a 1-0 pitch to put runners on second and third with one out for Ezequiel Carrera. Zeke and Devon Travis proceeded to strike out, leaving Tulowitzki and Saunders in scoring position late in the ballgame. However, in the eighth inning, Josh Donaldson walked, stole second, and advanced to third on an Edwin Encarnacion groundout. That brought Jose Bautista to the plate, who hit an RBI single to score Donaldson and give the Blue Jays a 2-1 lead.</p>
<p>Joaquin Benoit relieved Estrada in the eighth inning, and promptly gave up a double to Brett Gardner to start the inning. However, Benoit was able to bounce back and retire the side, leaving Gardner at second base. Roberto Osuna came into the game in the ninth inning and was up 0-2 on the first two batters he faced, but both of them reached, putting men on first and second with no outs. After a fielder&#8217;s choice to move the runners to second and third, Mason Williams picked up an RBI single, tying the ballgame at two runs a piece with just one out. After that, Ronald Torreyes hit a sac fly, scoring one, and giving the Yankees the 3-2 lead.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the ninth, Melvin Upton Jr. walked and after a pitching change, Kevin Pillar hit a single through the hole between first and second, advancing Upton Jr. to third base. This brought up Ezequiel Carrera, who got an infield single on a bunt, scoring Upton Jr. Pillar advanced to third on an error, while Zeke moved up to second as well. This all happened with no out. Devon Travis then struck out, and Josh Donaldson was intentionally walked for Edwin Encarnacion. He promptly hit a single through the same hole Pillar did, and the Blue Jays emerged victorious in this one.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Down 3-2 entering the bottom of the ninth, the Blue Jays mounted a comeback to get the walk off victory. The most influential play was Kevin Pillar&#8217;s single with Melvin Upton Jr. on first base, allowing him to get to third, and increasing the Blue Jays&#8217; win probability by 32.7 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With runners on second and third and one out, the Blue Jays had a prime opportunity to take the lead in a tied 1-1 game in the bottom of the seventh inning. Ezequiel Carrera didn&#8217;t help things, instead striking out, and lowering the Blue Jays&#8217; win probability by 13.5 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Blue Jays Mourn Loss of Marlins Ace Jose Fernandez</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays held numerous tributes today in memory of Jose Fernandez, the Marlins ace who was killed earlier today in a boating accident in Miami. A moment of silence was held before the game in his memory, and Edwin Encarnacion decided to forego walk up music on this solemn day. Some Blue Jays players also put the number 16 on their caps. Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/09/25/blue-jays-reflect-on-jose-fernandez-tragedy.html" target="_blank">wrote an article</a> about various Blue Jays reactions to the tragic news.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look to complete the four game sweep of the Yankees tomorrow evening and put one more dent into New York&#8217;s playoff aspirations. J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.28) will take the mound for Toronto, while the Yankees have yet to announce their starter. Currently, it appears as if Luis Severino (3-8, 5.70) will be the guy for the Yankees. First pitch is at 7:07 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game Recap: Blue Jays 3, Yankees 0; Bautista Delivers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/24/game-recap-blue-jays-3-yankees-0-bautista-delivers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2016 23:06:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The heart of the order, the Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista combo that&#8217;s supposed to strike fear in the trembling hearts of the league&#8217;s poor pitchers, hasn&#8217;t been quite right for the past few months. Guys like Devon Travis and Russell Martin have carried the team through stretches, and the core three have gotten hot independently, but we haven&#8217;t [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The heart of the order, the Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista combo that&#8217;s supposed to strike fear in the trembling hearts of the league&#8217;s poor pitchers, hasn&#8217;t been quite right for the past few months. Guys like Devon Travis and Russell Martin have carried the team through stretches, and the core three have gotten hot independently, but we haven&#8217;t seen the core three come together to win a game single-handedly in a while.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista changed all of that with one swing in the bottom of the 8th. A two out single by Donaldson, a walk by Encarnacion, and Bautista strode to the plate to a deafening buzz that threw me back to the 7th inning against Texas. Clippard fell behind 2-0 quickly, and on a fastball Jose whipped a go-ahead three-run homer. There was no bat flip this time. Jose kept his head down and went into a quick trot and I can only imagine he was thinking, &#8220;Not all heroes wear capes.&#8221;</p>
<p>There wasn&#8217;t much hitting in this one, so I&#8217;ll jump straight into the pitching. Marcus Stroman&#8217;s breaking ball was tantalizingly sharp to open the game, and he rode the pitch to a barrage of early whiffs. Buck and Pat maintained that the reason for his slider&#8217;s resurgence was his increased fastball usage. Apparently even if your slider is filthy, you can have to much of a good thing because hitters get used to it after a while.</p>
<p>Stroman one-hit the Yankees through <b>seven</b> innings, but was lifted before the eighth after throwing 97 pitches. I get that the Jays rotation is filled with delicate young arms, but he absolutely could&#8217;ve gone another inning. Of course handing the ball over to Jason Grilli is never a bad idea, and Gibbons looked smart after getting two strikeouts and a super saiyan fist pump from Grilli.</p>
<div class='gfyitem' data_title=true data_autoplay=false data_controls=true data_expand=false data_id=ThirdLittleCarp ></div>
<p>CC Sabathia was his usual self against the Blue Jays, nipping the corners with average-at-best stuff and forcing the hitters to make their own outs. He got two trouble-quenching double plays early on, and repeatedly worked out of jams to hold the Jays scoreless over seven despite walking three and striking out two.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna locked down his 35th save easily, giving up a Brett Gardner single but recovering for a quick inning.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Who else but Joey Bats? The monster shot provided all the offence the Jays needed and was worth a grand total of +0.380 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Tulo GDP in the second inning was worth -0.106 WPA, which really isn&#8217;t so bad- it happens to the best of us, so let&#8217;s not be hard on Tulo.</p>
<h3>We Need To Talk About the Double Plays</h3>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion (almost twice) grounded into weak double plays and now the Blue Jays lead the majors with 144 GDP. Probably not the best list to be on the top of, but you can&#8217;t say you didn&#8217;t expect the Jays would end up there at some point. There&#8217;s not a lot of speed on this team, and most of the lineup scorches their groundballs which gives the opposing fielders more time to make the play.</p>
<p>Digging into it the details, we find that Jose Bautista leads the team with -2.6 wGDP (the cumulative number of runs above or below average a player has accumulated based on their ability to avoid grounding into double plays). If you divide that number by PA&#8217;s to account for his relative dearth of playing time, he trails only Yunel Escobar in double play suckage.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Stroman got great results by working off his fastball. It&#8217;ll be interesting to see whether he keeps this gameplan going into the playoffs or lapses back into his comfortable routine of throwing his devastating slider all the time. His command was the only blemish on this start, as he walked three and continued to suffer through long innings because of it. He&#8217;s a ground ball pitcher, and while he has the stuff to live on strikeouts, he&#8217;s got to pitch to contact early if he wants to pitch past the 7th inning ever.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays will look for the series win against the Yankees tomorrow afternoon. They&#8217;ll throw Marco Estrada out there against the erratic Michael Pineda. New York is looking hopeless right now, and Toronto needs to fatten up with as many wins as possible before closing out the season with consecutive series against Baltimore and Boston.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Game Recap: Blue Jays 9, Yankees 0; Outstanding Offense Overwhelms Overmatched Outsiders</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/23/game-recap-blue-jays-9-yankees-0-outstanding-offense-overwhelms-overmatched-outsiders/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Sep 2016 02:20:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[After getting swept by the Yankees earlier in the month, Jays fans were probably a little nervous coming into this game. They  didn&#8217;t need to be, as the Jays opened their series against the Yankees with a blowout, getting a few runs early and adding several more to seal an eventual 9-0 victory. The Jays had a rough [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After getting swept by the Yankees earlier in the month, Jays fans were probably a little nervous coming into this game. They  didn&#8217;t need to be, as the Jays opened their series against the Yankees with a blowout, getting a few runs early and adding several more to seal an eventual 9-0 victory.</p>
<p>The Jays had a rough time with Bryan Mitchell the last time they faced him, as they stranded several runners over Mitchell&#8217;s five scoreless innings. They broke through early in this one, getting a couple runs in the first and one run via small ball in the second, as Devon Travis bunted a couple runners over before Edwin Encarnacion knocked one in. They did leave several opportunities on the board against Mitchell, as he finished with 6 innings, 6 hits and 4 walks allowed, but only 1 of his 3 runs were earned because of a throwing error by new Yankee Billy Butler.  He only struck out 2. They eventually broke through in the 7th against reliever Blake Parker, scoring four runs off RBI hits from Jose Bautista and Troy Tulowitzki, and added a couple more with a Josh Donaldson dinger in the 8th.</p>
<p>Francisco Liriano had a good start overall, though his control came and went, as happens a lot with the Jays&#8217; lefthander. He was able to keep the Yankees from capitalizing when they got runners on base. He stranded the bases loaded in the first inning, and two more in the third en-route to six shutout innings. Liriano finished allowing just 3 hits and 2 walks, striking out 6 over his 6 innings. The Jays were able to rest Jason Grilli and Roberto Osuna with all the late runs, and closed out the game without much else happening.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the game scoreless in the bottom of the first inning, the Jays loaded the bases with two outs.  This had all the makings of a frustrating result for Jays fans, who have seen the team strand a lot of runners this month. Fortunately, it didn&#8217;t happen this time: Tulowitzki came to the plate and lined a single to left, scoring Josh Donaldson and Encarnacion. This opening salvo for the Jays increased their chances to win by 16 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Yankees threatened on several occasions in this one, but had a lot of trouble cashing runners in. Trailing 3-0 in the seventh, they got the first runner on against Benoit, and sent pinch-hitter Brian McCann to the plate. McCann grounded into a double play, essentially ending the threat. That result reduced the Yankees&#8217; chances to win by 8 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Tulo Gets Two Clutch Hits</h3>
<p>The offense needed someone to step up, and the biggest hero tonight was Tulowitzki, who got two keys hits with the bases loaded, accounting for four RBIs. For a team that has seemed completely unable to get runners across the plate for the majority of the month, Tulo&#8217;s success with runners on was a welcome sight. They were singles into left and right field respectively, but got the job done, and that was what the Jays needed on this night.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Saturday&#8217;s game will be a mid-afternoon affair, starting at 4:07 PM ET. The Yankees will send C.C. Sabathia to the mound, and the Jays will counter with opening day starter Marcus Stroman. Sabathia faced the Jays most recently in August, and had a strange line: while the Jays scored 7 runs over 6 innings against him, the big lefty did strike out 12 batters. Stroman faced the Yankees earlier in September, allowing just 2 runs over 5 innings, striking out 8 in a 2-0 loss.</p>
<p>For those who were scoreboard watching, the Red Sox beat the Rays 2-1, keeping the division lead at 4 games over the Jays. The second wild card belonged to the Tigers before this game, and they were leading the Royals 8-3 in the top of the 9th. The Orioles, who were 1.5 games back of the Jays coming into tonight&#8217;s game, had managed to tie the game in the ninth against the Diamondbacks, and the game was in extra innings when this was published.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Yankees 7, Blue Jays 6; A Crushing End to an Incredible Game</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/06/recap-yankees-7-blue-jays-6-a-crushing-end-to-an-incredible-game/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Sep 2016 02:56:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Well, that was an up-and-down game; I&#8217;m not really sure how to feel about it. I thought Aaron Sanchez pitched pretty well, throwing the ball low in the zone and generating a ton of ground balls. His pitch count was low throughout the game, a sign that he was able to get batters out quickly. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, that was an up-and-down game; I&#8217;m not really sure how to feel about it. I thought Aaron Sanchez pitched pretty well, throwing the ball low in the zone and generating a ton of ground balls. His pitch count was low throughout the game, a sign that he was able to get batters out quickly. The offense was alright for the majority of the game but truly came through in the clutch during the eighth inning. Troy Tulowitzki hit a laser through the middle of the diamond for a single with two outs; bringing playoff-aficionado Dalton Pompey into the game as a pinch runner. Melvin Upton Jr. really showed me something in his at-bat against lefty Tommy Layne, drawing an eight pitch walk. Unlikely hero, Kevin Pillar came to the plate in a big spot and he delivered. He stroked a two run double over left fielder Brett Gardner&#8217;s head, giving the Jays a 4-3 lead.</p>
<p>All seemed in line for the Jays to mop up a clean win from there on out&#8230; if only that were the case. There was much more drama in the next six outs than anyone could have predicted. Jason Grilli came in and quickly eliminated the possibility for Pillar to be the hero. Without going into excruciating detail, the Jays found themselves down by three runs going into the top of the ninth, courtesy of a triple and home run. Grilli has been so good for the Jays, but he was bound to have a bad outing; it just really sucks that it happened against the Yankees down the stretch.</p>
<p>Now, it seemed like the Yankees had the easy route to the win, although Betances was due to face the top of the Blue Jays lineup. Bautista and Donaldson led the inning off with walks, immediately bringing Edwin up as the tying run. Encarnacion obviously struck catcher Gary Sanchez&#8217;s glove on the downstroke of his swing, causing both Edwin and Sanchez to miss the ball. Somehow, this went unobserved by all four umpires watching the play and Edwin was not awarded first base. On the tenth pitch of the at-bat, he hit a grounder right back up the middle. He busted it (and I mean busted it) down the line, beating the throw by a slim margin and cashing in a run. After Upton beat out another infield single, Pillar was back up with the chance to cause some magic with only one out and the bases loaded. This time he failed to pull the trigger on a breaking pitch down the pipe and was left to toss hit bat around the dugout. The Blue Jays last chance to score runs came down to Justin Smoak. Smoaky put a great swing on a pitch down and on the outer half of the plate. He drilled it to left field. I confess, I thought it was gone right off the bat. Gardner kept going back and back, he turned around and jumped right at the wall. His leap brought his glove one foot under the top of the wall, the ball fell into his glove, his momentum made him crash against the wall and he almost lost it&#8230; it was so close. He closed his glove at the last second to keep hold of the ball and win the game for the Yankees.</p>
<p>As I stated at the start of this lengthy recap (which only recounted six outs), I don&#8217;t know how to feel. Crushed, obviously. But that was one of the most exciting regular season games of baseball I have watched. The team really has to bounce back and take the next game against New York.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Kevin Pillar gets the top play of the game, attributing 0.500 WPA with one swing of the bat in the eighth inning. The Jays were trailing by a run and he cashed in two with a massive double over Gardner&#8217;s head.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>By WPA, the worst play of the game goes to Smoak in the last at-bat of the heavyweight bout. His flyout at the wall to Gardner decreased the Jays chance of winning by -0.231 WPA. I understand that, as this was the final nail in the coffin, but I am going to go off the board and award my worst play of the game. It came the at-bat prior. Kevin Pillar struck out swinging on a curve ball down the middle of the zone. The bases were loaded with one out. A ball to the outfield ties the game. Any ball in play has the potential to tie the game, but he struck out. He detracted -0.225 WPA with that play, so all-in-all, it was very close to Smoak&#8217;s at-bat. I have never seen the same player get the top play and the bottom play of the game but this game was that wild.</p>
<h3>Sanchez continues to cruise</h3>
<p>I have discussed a lot of this game, but essentially none of that has covered the Jays starter (and the AL&#8217;s ERA leader!), Aaron Sanchez. His final line was seven innings, allowing three runs to score on five hits, while striking out four and walking two. He seemed pretty sharp all night long except in the seventh when he gave up two runs. No fault on Gibbons for not pulling him earlier, his pitch count was low and he was breezing through the middle innings of the game. Sanchez is scheduled to start next against the Red Sox, and the Jays need him to be at minimum as sharp as tonight, likely more. He hasn&#8217;t gone more than seven innings since July 4th, I&#8217;m hoping that he can spin his first complete game next week!</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays have the finale against the Yankees tomorrow night, and it feels like a must win ball game to be honest. First pitch at 7:05 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 3; Toronto Tied Up By Tanaka</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/05/recap-yankees-5-blue-jays-3-toronto-tied-up-by-tanaka/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Sep 2016 20:15:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6318</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays were looking to carry some of the good vibes from their last game in Tampa into the Bronx for a battle with the fourth place New York Yankees. Things looked good early as the Jays were making hard contact but simply couldn&#8217;t cash in baserunners as the day wore on. A [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays were looking to carry some of the good vibes from their last game in Tampa into the Bronx for a battle with the fourth place New York Yankees. Things looked good early as the Jays were making hard contact but simply couldn&#8217;t cash in baserunners as the day wore on. A poor start from R.A. Dickey left them to play catch up and the bats&#8217; attempted comeback was snuffed out by Tyler Clippard and Dellin Betances in the back of the bullpen.</p>
<p>In <a title="Bronx Before BoSox: Yankees Series Preview" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/05/bronx-before-bosox-yankees-series-preview/">our series preview</a> we discussed Dickey&#8217;s poor fortunes at Yankee Stadium this season. While he was partly done in by poor run support, he was certainly culpable in his own right this afternoon. He was staked with an early 1-0 lead and had handed it back after just three pitches. He looked to settle down with a quick second inning but gave up another run in the third and two more in the fourth. It wound up being his shortest outing since late July: 4.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K on just 64 pitches. This marks the third Toronto loss in the Bronx this season and the third with Dickey taking the &#8220;L.&#8221;</p>
<p>Toronto took the lead just two batters in to today&#8217;s game as Jose Bautista singled to drive in Devon Travis following a leadoff double. The Jays had no problem getting runners on but continued to struggle driving them in, allowing Masahiro Tanaka to weave his way out of trouble several times today. The Yankees had no such problem, scoring five runs in the first four innings before being shut down by Toronto&#8217;s bullpen. Tanaka&#8217;s final line of 6.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB and 4 K came on a day where he wasn&#8217;t at his best but still managed to keep the Blue Jays off the board.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays scored two runs in the top of the seventh thanks to a two-RBI single from Edwin Encarnacion with the bases loaded to cut the deficit to two. Pinch hitter Russell Martin stepped to the plate with a chance to do more damage but had his soft blooper caught by Starlin Castro in short right field. Jose Bautista also had a few awful baserunning decisions today; getting easily thrown out at home in the first and being thrown out at third base to end the fifth. Those blunders are particularly painful for a team struggling to cash in runners and it cost them today.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s top play of the game came early in the form of Jacoby Ellsbury&#8217;s two-run homer on just the third pitch of R.A. Dickey&#8217;s day. The dinger gave the Yankees a lead that they would never relinquish and accounted for a 0.165 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Russell Martin&#8217;s soft liner to end the seventh was today&#8217;s bottom play of the game (-0.72 WPA). He stranded runners on the corners and the Blue Jays wouldn&#8217;t really threaten to strike again. It was the right move to call on Martin to pinch hit for Michael Saunders but the Jays weren&#8217;t rewarded with a positive result.</p>
<h3>Bullpen Excels Again</h3>
<p>After Danny Barnes, Scott Feldman, Joaquin Benoit, Jason Grilli and Roberto Osuna delivered six innings of shutout, two-hit ball yesterday, the Blue Jay bullpen was once again tasked with keeping the game close while the offense tried to find its footing.</p>
<p>Francisco Liriano, Brett Cecil and Benoit combined for four more scoreless innings in relief of Dickey today. If the other issues can sort themselves out, the Blue Jays look like they have a bullpen that&#8217;s more than capable of holding a lead going forward.</p>
<h3>Offensive Struggles Continue</h3>
<p>&#8220;Struggle&#8221; might not be the proper word, but it&#8217;s disconcerting to see the Blue Jays&#8217; vaunted lineup follow the same pattern over the past handful of games: quick run, long drought, and then more runs off the bullpen. Granted, the last two games have been against Chris Archer and Tanaka, but the quiet middle innings have to go by the wayside if Toronto wants to go on another little run to cement their postseason candidacy.</p>
<p>To wit, the Blue Jays were not without chances today. They left eight men on base and four in scoring position whereas the Yankees left three and two, respectively. This is still a very good team- it&#8217;s just that waiting for a late charge puts a lot of undue stress on the pitching staff to keep things within reach.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays and Yankees get back to it tomorrow when Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.88 ERA) takes on youngster Luis Cessa (2-0, 3.00 ERA as a starter). First pitch is set for 7:05 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 12, Yankees 6; Rain Forgotten as Jays Bats Bring The Thunder</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/16/recap-blue-jays-12-yankees-6-rain-forgotten-as-jays-bats-bring-the-thunder/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Aug 2016 03:03:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Tonight&#8217;s game between the Jays and the Yankees started with rain looming, and for once it wasn&#8217;t referring to Josh Donaldson home runs. After an early outburst of power from the home side, the game was interrupted by rain, with the Jays down a bunch of runs and the offense seeming listless again. The change in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tonight&#8217;s game between the Jays and the Yankees started with rain looming, and for once it wasn&#8217;t referring to Josh Donaldson home runs. After an early outburst of power from the home side, the game was interrupted by rain, with the Jays down a bunch of runs and the offense seeming listless again. The change in weather brought the thunder from Toronto, as the Jays rallied against the Yankees bullpen, taking the lead in a eight-run eight inning that gave them an eventual 12-6 victory.</p>
<p>The Jays may have been optimistic, seeing Michael Pineda and his 5.04 ERA on the schedule. Given their recent strikeout woes, however, Pineda&#8217;s 10.4 Ks per 9 innings might have given them some pause. It wasn&#8217;t the strikeouts that made the Jays struggle, but they were just unable to string together much against Pineda, only getting four hits against him in five innings despite only striking out twice. The rain delay  removed Pineda from the game, and provided the Blue Jays new life. They quickly got to work on reliever Anthony Swarzak, notching four runs that were punctuated by back-to-back home runs from Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin. A couple innings later, Edwin Encarnacion and Martin (again) added a pair of two run dingers to give the Jays the lead. They continued to pile on no matter who the Yankees brought in, as Joe Girardi wore out the bullpen door trying to find a way to stop the bleeding, but was completely unable to do so.</p>
<p>Estrada was not sharp on the evening, giving up home runs in the first, second, and fourth inning. He limited the damage on the first two, but the third one happened with two runners on base, giving the Yankees a large lead. The rain delay prevented him from going too deep into the game, which may have been a blessing given Estrada&#8217;s struggles: his final line was four innings, five earned runs on three deep flies, and two strikeouts. Scott Feldman came in for the fifth inning, and did yeoman&#8217;s work to keep it close, allowing only one run over his three innings of work and striking out five. He was able to pass it off to Jason Grilli and Ryan Tepera, who finished off the eventual Jays victory.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the top of the 8th inning, the Jays had already scored two runs to tie the game at 6-6, on a home run by Encarnacion (that had a whopping WPA of .301). That was not the peak moment, however, as Martin followed Encarnacion&#8217;s home run with one of his own, a blast to right field that he punctuated with a bit of a bat flip. That dinger had a WPA of .353, the highest of the night.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Jays didn&#8217;t get too much going against Pineda, but they did get two runners on in the fourth inning for Russell Martin, when they were down 2-0. Martin grounded weakly into a fielder&#8217;s choice, ending the inning and the threat. Snuffing out the Jays&#8217; rally accounted for a WPA of -.050.</p>
<h3>Eight is Enough</h3>
<p>After a game that the Jays couldn&#8217;t get much of anything going, it looked like more of the same early on as Michael Pineda kept them scoreless through five innings. A rain delay and a change of pitchers seemed to jolt the Jays, who scored four runs in the sixth before absolutely exploding in the eighth,  sending thirteen hitters to the plate and scoring eight runs, giving them a massive lead. The Yankees were forced to use three pitchers to get through the inning, and seven total in the game, something that may come into play with an afternoon game tomorrow.</p>
<h3>Gregorius and Sanchez Go Yard</h3>
<p>There were two Yankees hitters in particular that seemed to have Marco Estrada&#8217;s number on this night: Sanchez, and Didi Gregorius. Gregorius, a surprising choice for a #3 hitter with his reputation as a glove-first shortstop, hit a monster home run in the first inning to open the scoring, and hit a fly ball to the wall in the third. In addition to his two run home run in the fifth, Sanchez had a solo home run in the second that extended the Yankees&#8217; lead to 2-0. After the 1-0 win last night where they stranded a number of runners, the Yankees were probably happy to have some long balls that guaranteed some offense, even if it ended up in a losing cause. Neither Gregorius or Sanchez had the courtesy to stop hitting after Estrada left the game, with Gregorius getting an RBI in the fifth, and Sanchez singling in the sixth. The Jays&#8217; late rally made their fireworks a little less impressive.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow&#8217;s getaway game is at 1:05 PM ET. The Jays send J.A. Happ (16-3, 2.96 ERA) to the mound. The Yankees will counter with lefty C.C Sabathia (7-9, 4.20). Happ has had excellent success against the Yankees this year, going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA. Sabathia has been almost as good: his ERA comes in at an even better 1.38 in two starts, but he&#8217;s managed to lose both of them.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Penner &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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