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	<title>Toronto &#187; Mariners</title>
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		<title>Recap: Mariners 2, Blue Jays 1; Jays Fall in Extra-Innings</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/21/recap-mariners-2-blue-jays-1-jays-fall-in-extra-innings/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Sep 2016 00:24:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6844</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays’ dropped a heartbreaker in the finale of a three-game series in Seattle on a walk-off sac fly by Robinson Cano in the bottom of the 12th inning. The Jays’, who tied the game in the top of the 9th inning when Jose Bautista took Mariners’ closer Edwin Diaz deep, were unable to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays’ dropped a heartbreaker in the finale of a three-game series in Seattle on a walk-off sac fly by Robinson Cano in the bottom of the 12<sup>th</sup> inning. The Jays’, who tied the game in the top of the 9<sup>th</sup> inning when Jose Bautista took Mariners’ closer Edwin Diaz deep, were unable to score, despite mounting rallies that saw the team place runners in scoring position with nobody out in both the 10<sup>th</sup> and 11<sup>th</sup> innings. After an error by Josh Donaldson led to runners on the corners with nobody out, Cano, who was held hitless all afternoon, hit an R.A. Dickey fly ball deep enough to cash Guillermo Heredia from third base. With the 2-1 loss, the Blue Jays fall to 83-69 on the season, and to 18-23 in one run games. Both the Mariners and Blue Jays received strong starts from Felix Hernandez and Aaron Sanchez, who, despite struggling with their control (both issued 3 walks), combined to allow just 6 hits this afternoon at Safeco Field.</p>
<h4>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h4>
<p>Bautista’s dramatic, 9<sup>th</sup> inning, game-tying homer off of the Mariners’ 100-mile-per-hour flamethrower, increased the Blue Jays’ chances of winning the game by 36.4 percentage points and was the highest value play of the game by WPA. Unfortunately, the homer would be all the scoring the Blue Jays could muster on this day.</p>
<h4>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h4>
<p>After Jose Bautista struck out, Russell Martin came to the plate with runners on first and second in the top of the 11<sup>th</sup> inning. Martin hit a comebacker to Nick Vincent, starting a double play that snuffed out yet another Blue Jays rally. The play reduced the team&#8217;s chances of winning by a game low 20.8 percentage points.</p>
<h4>Bats Go Back to Sleep</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays’ offence continues to play hide and seek at the most inopportune of times. Less than 20 hours after the bats came alive to score 10 runs against Hisashi Iwakuma, they were once again stymied by Felix Hernandez and the Mariners bullpen, being held to just 6 hits in 12 innings. Despite mounting rallies in the 10<sup>th</sup> and 11<sup>th</sup> innings, the Blue Jays were unable to plate a go-ahead run. Throughout their struggles, the team continues to take a patient approach at the plate – Jays’ hitters drew 6 walks this afternoon.</p>
<h4>Curveballs For Days</h4>
<p>During his last start against Boston, a blister on his pitching hand limited Aaron Sanchez’s ability to get a good feel for his offspeed pitches. Sanchez appeared to be feeling no such effects today in Seattle. Sanchez went to his curveball early and often against the Mariners. Similarly, Felix Hernandez, who has lost a tick on his fastball velocity as he moves into baseball-middle-age, utilized his curveball and changeup to effectively keep Blue Jays’ hitters off balance.</p>
<h4>JD’s Gutsy Performance</h4>
<p>Despite making some costly fielding mistakes in the 12<sup>th</sup> inning, its hard not to feel for Josh Donaldson. While we don’t know exactly what is wrong with Josh Donaldson’s hip, it can’t be feeling very good right now. Despite playing through pain, Donaldson legged out an opposite field double, got another opposite field hit to lead off the 11<sup>th</sup>, and managed to contain his emotions when rung up on a very contentious check-swing in the 5<sup>th</sup> inning. Donaldson looked noticeably slower and laboring while running the bases. The fact that Donaldson has been able to do what he has will likely become even more impressive whenever we actually find out the true extent of his injury.</p>
<h4>Up Next</h4>
<p>The team will enjoy their final off-day of the 2016 season on Thursday before beginning the final homestand of the year against the flailing New York Yankees on Friday. The Yankees are 3-7 in their last 10 games and head into action on Wednesday night having fallen 3.5 games behind the Orioles for the second wild card spot. Starting pitchers for Friday’s opener have not yet been officially announced, but Francisco Liriano (7-3, 5.08 ERA) could be next in line to take the hill for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 3, Mariners 2; Marco the Magician is Back</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/20/recap-blue-jays-3-mariners-2-marco-the-magician-is-back/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/20/recap-blue-jays-3-mariners-2-marco-the-magician-is-back/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Sep 2016 05:15:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6778</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Marco Estrada has had a rough go of things lately, but boy was that not the case on Monday. Over seven innings, he struck out eight batters and gave up three walks. Marco had actually taken a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and looked like he might cruise through the rest of the game. Robinson [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Marco Estrada has had a rough go of things lately, but boy was that not the case on Monday. Over seven innings, he struck out eight batters and gave up three walks. Marco had actually taken a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and looked like he might cruise through the rest of the game. Robinson Cano had different plans, forcing a single up the middle, and ending the no hitter. It was still the only hit that Estrada gave up on the night.</p>
<p>The game represented a departure from Estrada&#8217;s recent performances, in the best way possible. Over his last seven starts, he&#8217;s had <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=1118&amp;position=P" target="_blank">an above average game score (50 or greater) just once</a>. After his last start, we heard that he&#8217;d been <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/marco-estrada-herniated-disk.html" target="_blank">pitching through a herniated disk</a>, which would be a good explanation for the pitching woes. Either that herniated disk is now gone, or Marco&#8217;s gotten very effective at pitching through the pain. Either way, he&#8217;s given us no reason to worry about him much more down the stretch.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; bullpen on the other hand, had a few more issues. Marco Estrada walked Leonys Martin to start the eighth inning, and was promptly removed in favour of Jason Grilli. Grilli then proceeded to walk two of the next four batters, loading the bases for Robinson Cano. Roberto Osuna was the lucky man tasked with trying to take care of Seattle&#8217;s best hitter. After a long at-bat, Osuna eventually got Cano to fly out. Had Cano hit the ball five feet further, it would have been a grand slam.</p>
<p>Then, in the 9th, after getting two quick outs, Osuna ran in to some trouble of his own. A successive single from Adam Lind, and then home run from Leonys Martin turned what should have been a shutout in to a one run game. Fortunately, Osuna was able to clinch that final out, but I certainly would have appreciated a few less heart palpitations.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Surprise, surprise, the top play of the game came via an Edwin Encarnacion home run. Edwin hit his homer in the third inning off of Taijuan Walker. Kevin Pillar came in to score, and the Blue Jays took a 2-0 lead. The home run had increased the Jays&#8217; chances of winning by 21.9%.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play of the game was the aforementioned Cano-Osuna battle in the bottom of the eight inning, with the bases loaded, and two outs. As mentioned, Osuna eventually got Robinson Cano to fly out to right field, but provided more of a scare than Jays fans would like. Cano&#8217;s flyout decreased the Mariners&#8217; chances of winning by 9.4%.</p>
<h3>Bye Bye Josh</h3>
<p>In the top of the seventh inning, with Devon Travis on first base, Josh Donaldson wanted to make something happen. So much so, that, when called out on strikes out a low pitch, Donaldson gave the ump a piece of his mind.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Donaldson gets ejected after letting HP ump Chris Conroy have it about this call. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bluejays?src=hash">#Bluejays</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Jays?src=hash">#Jays</a> <a href="https://t.co/ul83q9oB31">https://t.co/ul83q9oB31</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590) <a href="https://twitter.com/Wilnerness590/status/778081035846291456">September 20, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>As you might imagine, Chris Conroy wasn&#8217;t particularly happy about that, and ejected Donaldson almost immediately. Fortunately, Josh&#8217;s hitting services didn&#8217;t end up being required the rest of the game. However, there will be situations where the Jays&#8217;ll need him. Josh has to keep his cool.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow, the Blue Jays&#8217; have another late start. First pitch at Safeco Field is set for 10:10 PM EST. Each team has an unconventional, but successful starter set to pitch, as the Jays have J.A. Happ, and the Mariners have Hisashi Iwakuma. With the Orioles having lost to the Red Sox on Monday, the Jays are a little closer to the top wildcard spot. However, they&#8217;ll still have to take one of the last two games of this Mariners&#8217; series to stay competitive.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How J.A. Happ Evolved Into One of Baseball&#8217;s Best</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/31/how-j-a-happ-evolved-into-one-of-baseballs-best/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2016 16:23:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6117</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[J.A. Happ has been nothing short of a revelation in 2016. He currently has a strikeout rate of 22.2 percentage on the season (32.4 percent since the start of July), sits second in major league baseball with 17 wins, and has an ERA that has hovered between 2.80 and 3.20 all year long. All of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>J.A. Happ has been nothing short of a revelation in 2016. He currently has a strikeout rate of 22.2 percentage on the season (32.4 percent since the start of July), sits second in major league baseball with 17 wins, and has an ERA that has hovered between 2.80 and 3.20 all year long. All of those would be career bests in seasons during which Happ was a full-time starter. He has unquestionably been one of the better pitchers in the American League. The question that seems to be on everybody’s mind is “how?”</p>
<p>Like Marco Estrada last year (and continuing into this season), J.A. Happ is succeeding to an insane degree despite stuff that, on the surface, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-10/" target="_blank">seems decidely mediocre</a>. His fastball has league average velocity (approx 92 mph), and none of his offspeed pitches have any sort of extreme break or speed. So again, how is he getting hitters out with such extreme ease?</p>
<p>The basic answer is that his stuff isn’t quite as mediocre as it looks on the aggregate. The better answer involves a bit more nuance. He is constantly figuring out better ways to use that stuff, and becoming more effective every time. In fact, despite many (includng me recently) assuming he has just gone back to his Pittsburgh ways, we are actually looking at yet another new incarnation of Mr. Happ: J.A. Happ 4.0. Let us dive into the mystery that is this lanky lefthander&#8217;s success.</p>
<p>Considering the way he pitches, any discussion on J.A. Happ has to begin with his fastball. As you may have seen elsewhere, Happ has become increasingly reliant on the fourseam fastball as the season has gone on, which follows a trend from his time last year with the Pirates.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-30.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6118" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-30.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (30)" width="970" height="319" /></a></p>
<p>The spike in fourseams has directly coincided with a spike in his strikeout rate, which has led many to believe it is the sole cause for Happ’s current bat-missing ways. This is certainly backed up by the numbers; among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 fourseam fastballs, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2016&amp;pitch=FA&amp;ds=ws&amp;lim=500" target="_blank">J.A. Happ sits third in miss rate</a> on the pitch, at 28.8 percent of swings. That rises to <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=P&amp;month=&amp;year=2016&amp;pitch=FA&amp;ds=ws&amp;lim=1000" target="_blank">number one in all of baseball</a> if you raise the minimum to 1000 fourseam fastballs. That’s pretty impressive. However, this whiff rate also happens to be an extreme outlier:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-26.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-6119" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-26.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (26)" width="483" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>In the last three years, Happ has never topped 20 percent. Even if we just filter out his time with the Pirates, he was still just missing bats 21 percent of the time, and that included facing opposing pitchers. As a result, merely throwing more fourseam fastballs isn’t the main reason for the uptick in strikeouts. However, when we put the rest of Happ&#8217;s offerings back into the mix, the picture gets a little bit clearer.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-22.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6122" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-22.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (22)" width="949" height="323" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Happ may have started throwing a lot more fourseamers, but unlike last year, he is still throwing plenty of sinkers as well. Of course, simply throwing more sinkers doesn&#8217;t explain a nearly 50 percent increase in whiff rate. In order to understand fully <em>why</em> increased sinker usage is leading to more swings and misses on the fourseamer, we must first take a quick stop in the past and look at a mechanical change Happ made during his first time in Toronto. Before the 2014 season, the Blue Jays dropped J.A. Happ’s arm slot in an effort to help him get more movement on his fastball, as graphs explain.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-25.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6120" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-25.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (25)" width="953" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>The team lowered Happ&#8217;s release point by nearly half a foot, and he also began releasing farther away from his body (see tables above). The attempt definitely worked, as Happ’s fastball immediately started getting more shape. His two seamer started dropping over two inches more and getting an inch of extra run. The fourseamer still stayed up &#8211; only dropping an extra inch &#8211; but also picked up that inch of run. In the last two years, however, Happ has taken that to the extreme:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-28.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6121" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-28.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (28)" width="951" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>Happ is now getting an inch of extra run on the fourseamer, while the pitch is still staying up at the same high rate. The two-seamer is the big winner, though, having taken a gigantic step forward. The offering is now getting <em>another</em> two full inches of extra drop, while still maintaining the 9.5” of arm side run. That horizontal break places him in the top 10 of all pitchers, ahead of even Aaron Sanchez.</p>
<p>The tailing action is certainly nice, but what is most important is that extra sink. By adding those two inches to the two-seamer, Happ is now seeing a full 5” difference in vertical break between his fourseamer and his sinker. That places him number one in all of baseball in break difference among pitchers who threw at least 500 of each pitch.</p>
<p>That is why the increased sinker usage matters. With Pittsburgh, the <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-believe-blue-jays-j-a-happ/" target="_blank">improved command and consistency</a> were enough to get outs. <em>This year</em>, batters are constantly being forced to adjust to two pitches that come in at essentially the same velocity (the difference in speed is less than one mile per hour), but with a bigger difference in how they move than any other pitcher in baseball. As a result, the fourseam has the elevated whiff rate; batters swing under it expecting it to drop like the sinker. When Happ uses both fastballs together, he succeeds.</p>
<p>Clearly, the fastballs are far better than average velocity alone would suggest. However, Happ still throws enough non-fastballs that we need to look at them as well. The actual pitches themselves show very little difference from this year to last. In fact, the only one with a noticeable change in shape or movement is the slider, as it has become much more of a cut fastball. But it’s not the break that matters here; we’re going to look at how he is using them. If you remember <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/rotation-review/" target="_blank">the roto reviews</a> that we were doing earlier in the season, you may have seen us mention on multiple occasions just how unpredictable Happ had been. It was impossible to tell from one start to the next just what he would throw. One day it would be more sinkers and curveballs, the next it would be fourseamers and changeups, or sliders and curveballs. There really was no way to guess what version of Happ you were going to see. As such, he was able to succeed by getting weak contact instead of swings and misses.</p>
<p>He did something similar in Seattle at the outset of last year as well, and was looking like an All-Star. Then for some reason he decided to stop throwing sinkers at all in mid-May, and started getting hit. At least he was still mixing his breaking balls, though. By the time he became fastball happy in Pittsburgh, there was a very clear hierarchy of Happ&#8217;s off-speed stuff. Compare that to the current version of fourseam-heavy Happ (start vs Colorado was the first time Happ went over 50 percent fourseamers):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-17.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-6123" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-17.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (17)" width="954" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>At no point with Pittsburgh did Happ throw more changeups than curveballs, and only twice was the slider not his <em>clear</em> go to breaking ball. He was always hovering around ten percent usage with the curveball and sat at close to five percent usage with the changeup. With the Blue Jays, there is no pattern at all. In fact, every single pitch has a usage range of over ten percentage points. Even with the increased fastball usage, hitters <em>still</em> can’t know what’s coming from one pitch to the next.</p>
<p>This change in patterns just so happens to apply to <em>where</em> Happ throws the ball, as well (Pirates numbers on the left):</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2015-locations.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-6125" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2015-locations.png" alt="2015 locations" width="699" height="350" /></a></p>
<p>From the looks of that grid, J.A. Happ is working down in the zone much more often than in his brief stint with the Pirates. Combined with the increased sinker usage, this is a good reason for a slight uptick in his overall groundball rate, and it makes it hard for hitters to elevate the ball for extra bases. This is where the unpredictability comes in: When Happ gets to two strikes, he works up in the zone with his fastball instead (see left grid below). In 2015, that would look just like every other fastball he was throwing. Now it’s coming in on a completely different plane. This is forcing hitters to react to a pitch in a location they&#8217;re not seeing at other points in the at-bat. That leads to strikeouts. In addition, while hitters have to be aware of that high fastball, Happ also works down in the zone with all his other offerings (see right grid below). By forcing the hitters to cover the entire stike zone, Happ makes all of his pitches pitches play up. As a result, every single pitch <a href="http://bit.ly/2bCdPlg" target="_blank">has an elevated whiff rate</a>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2016-fastballs.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-6126" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/2016-fastballs.png" alt="2016 fastballs" width="699" height="350" /></a></p>
<p>To recap, we have a pitcher using his supreme fastball variance to generate strikeouts and groundballs for the first time, an unpredictable off-speed usage to create overall weak contact, and a pitcher who works down in the zone (avoiding power), except for when he elevates for a strikeout.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ has taken what he learned with the Pirates, and along with Russ Martin and Pete Walker, evolved it over the course of this season to turn himself into one of the elite pitchers in the game. He could’ve just continued throwing the way he did in Pittsburgh that dominated the NL Central, but he wasn’t satisfied with that. And then could&#8217;ve kept up the way he was mowing down the AL East in the early parts of this season, but he wasn’t satisfied with that either. He keeps adjusting. That, above all else, is why I believe in J.A. Happ.</p>
<p>I can’t wait to see the next version.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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