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	<title>Toronto &#187; Marco Estrada</title>
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		<title>What Happened To Marco Estrada&#8217;s Changeup in 2017?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Dec 2017 12:25:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Marco Estrada had a rough 2017 season. As a pending free agent who had just posted two well above-average season, another good turn would likely have led to a very healthy contract going forward. Instead, after a tremendous start, everything went sideways for the Jays’ hurler. He posted a 4.98 ERA, dealt with personal issues off [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Marco Estrada had a rough 2017 season. As a pending free agent who had just posted two well above-average season, another good turn would likely have led to a very healthy contract going forward. Instead, after a tremendous start, everything went sideways for the Jays’ hurler. He posted a 4.98 ERA, dealt with personal issues off the field, and ended up signing a one year contract extension with the hope of hitting the market again next year. What went wrong? It was certainly a few things, but most importantly: his bread and butter pitch seemingly abandoned him:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Marco Estrada&#39;s wRC+ allowed against his changeup:</p>
<p>2013: 37<br />2014: 75<br />2015: 58<br />2016: 50<br />2017: 130</p>
<p>&mdash; Rob Silver (@RobSilver) <a href="https://twitter.com/RobSilver/status/937315292882993152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 3, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>That’s one heck of a disappearing act by one of the game’s best offspeed pitches.</p>
<p>Everything went backwards on the aggregate with the pitch last year. Estrada threw it more often (32 percent in 2017 vs 28.8 percent in 2016 and 27.8 in 2015), but it obviously got hit harder (see above) and his swing and miss rate on the pitch also fell off pretty heavily:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-37.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-14444" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-37-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (37)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>There was obviously something going on there. But as anybody who watched the Toronto season is probably aware, Estrada had a very up and down 2017. The same applies to his changeup:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-38.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-14445" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-38-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (38)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Estrada actually only really struggled with the pitch in June and August, with a bit of a blip in April that happened to be helped along by <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=462136&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=slg&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=04/01/2017&amp;endDate=12/03/2017&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|CH" target="_blank">an unusually stingy fastball</a>. So instead of looking at the season as a whole, we should be looking at those individual months to see what was going on with Estrada’s changeup.</p>
<p>There doesn’t seem to be an issue with the <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=462136&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|CH&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=mph&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=04/01/2017&amp;endDate=12/03/2017" target="_blank">velocity gap between his changeup and his fastball</a>, so that’s not the problem. But when we start looking at the movement on the two pitches, the issue starts to become a bit clearer:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-33.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-14448" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-33-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (33)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>That sure looks an awful lot like that slugging percentage chart above, doesn’t it? It follows reasonably logically. By the time the ball is getting to the plate, there is a two inch variance in where the pitch was ending up (assuming a similar release point). That’s a big difference when we’re talking about a bat that has a 2.61” barrel.</p>
<p>For reference, take a look at the vertical movement (+ gravity) on the changeup over the last two years.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-39.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-14447" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-39-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (39)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>We can ignore the two October readings — as they were both based on a single outing — and see that the vertical movement on his changeup tracks pretty well with the whiff rates on the pitch from that first chart above. Most importantly, all the months with the least amount of “drop” on the changeup occurred in 2017.</p>
<p>But we’re still talking about the what. What we really need to get into is the why. WHY did Estrada’s changeup get worse? There was no tangible change in spin rate (a difference in average RPM of a mere 29 revolutions, from 2154 to 2125), but there definitely was one in release point.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-35.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-14449" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-35-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (35)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>There’s a substantial difference in where Estrada was letting the ball go this year compared to last; the range there is a whole six inches of release horizontally. But as we said above, Estrada had some good months with the pitch in 2017. He was never getting the whiffs of 2016, but still solid. So let’s focus on 2017.</p>
<p>The two months where Estrada happened to be throwing most over the top completely lined up with the months where his changeup fought gravity at the highest rate. That’s not a coincidence, of course. By coming over the top like that Estrada is changing the spin direction of the baseball. The closer he gets to true backspin, the more the pitch will fight gravity. In the case of his disappearing changeup, that just happens to be a bad thing (though it helps him with his fastball).</p>
<p>When we look at the vertical release points we catch another issue.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-41.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-14450" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/Brooksbaseball-Chart-41-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (41)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Estrada began tilting a bit in June (and was aware of that, <a title="Marco Estrada on His June Struggles and Juiced Baseballs" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/04/marco-estrada-on-his-june-struggles-and-juiced-baseballs/" target="_blank">as he told Gideon Turk</a>) which was throwing off his release point. However, in August he had almost an identical vertical release so the one he had in April but with a horizontal release of over four inches closer to the plate. If you’re wondering how that happens:</p>
<p>This is a changeup from April.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/estt2017-apr.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14451" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/estt2017-apr.png" alt="estt2017 apr" width="637" height="328" /></a></p>
<p>This is a changeup from August.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/estt2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14452" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/estt2017.png" alt="estt2017" width="641" height="329" /></a></p>
<p>Estrada is <em>really</em> tilting his body in that second photo. If you’re having trouble seeing it, compare the left handed batters boxes in those two photos. In the one from April, there’s a significant, visible gap between Estrada’s shoulder/neck and the line of the box. With no change in position on the rubber in the latter picture, he is almost completely obscuring the box&#8217;s outer edge.</p>
<p>These are cherry-picked offerings (we can find occasional examples of each in any start), but they’re also very representative of what the average release point data is trying to show. Estrada was pulling off the ball in August, resulting in lower vertical release (because he was bent over more), but also a release closer to his head. As such, he was still getting that “rise” on his changeup that he didn’t want, despite the lower release point.</p>
<p>In addition to the problems created by the unusual movement, the constantly shifting release points would have wreaked havoc on Estrada ability&#8217;s to command the pitch. Take a look at his <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=CH%7C&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2016%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;player_lookup%5B%5D=462136&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=pitches&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=0#results" target="_blank">Statcast</a> location plots from 2016 vs 2017:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/newplot-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14446" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/12/newplot-2.png" alt="newplot (2)" width="771" height="372" /></a></p>
<p>Those two heat maps couldn&#8217;t be more different. In 2016, Estrada had a very small area where most of his changeups ended up, with the rest of them radiating down and out of the zone, showing a clear intent. In 2017, the most frequented location is spread over a much bigger area in the middle of the plate, then radiating out in all directions. That&#8217;s a visible example of a lack of command. When you&#8217;re talking about pitch that relies entirely on deception for its effectiveness, being able to throw it where you want is pretty important. Estrada couldn&#8217;t.</p>
<p>So inconsistent movement, inconsistent release, and inconsistent location. Yep, that would add up to a bad pitch.</p>
<p>The obvious follow up, then, is what does all this mean going forward?</p>
<p>Well, the good news is that he is aware of the potential issue in his delivery — which affected his fastball as well, as linked above. Secondly, the reason he was unable to make proper adjustments very easily could be related to the personal issues he was facing during much of the year. Mechanics are very much a mental aspect of pitching; if you’re having trouble getting into the right head space, they can go off pretty easily. For an extreme example, look no farther than what happened to Brad Lidge after Albert Pujols hit the ball 500 feet off him in a playoff game.</p>
<p>If Estrada is right mentally (and we have no reason to believe he isn’t) and able to continually focus on correcting these flaws (he seemed to make a minor adjustment in July, only to overdo things in August), then he should be closer to the pitcher we’ve seen the for most of the last three years. If not, we could see another up and down year from the 33 year old.</p>
<p>Thankfully, we also have something of a track record to point to after three years of Estrada in Toronto, so the betting here is that he will be just fine in 2018.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 75: Japandering to the Crowd</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/21/artificial-turf-wars-ep-75-japandering-to-the-crowd/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Sep 2017 09:55:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Shohei Otani]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Episode 75 Sung Min Kim of Sporting News stops by talk Shohei Otani and what we could be in the big leagues, the posting systems in Japan and Korea, and other potential stars we could see being posted over the next couple of years. Greg and Josh also discuss the Marco Estrada extension, Jose Bautista&#8217;s [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 75</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/sung_minkim" target="_blank">Sung Min Kim</a> of Sporting News stops by talk Shohei Otani and what we could be in the big leagues, the posting systems in Japan and Korea, and other potential stars we could see being posted over the next couple of years. Greg and Josh also discuss the Marco Estrada extension, Jose Bautista&#8217;s farewell tour, Roberto Osuna&#8217;s increased velocity, faces of the franchise, and a truly 2017 Toronto Blue Jays moment. Finally, they answer listener questions and give out Do Overs to Mark Shapiro and Matt Dermody.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/028/show_10285395_2017_09_21_04_56_11.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/028/show_10285395_2017_09_21_04_56_11.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/31/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-orioles-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Aug 2017 14:39:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13225</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski How is Tim Beckham Doing This? Blue Jay A – 5.6 BB%/15.1 K%/13HR/14SB – 8.0 VORP Oriole B – 5.8 BB%/28.3 K%/ 18HR/ 6SB – 29.1 VORP As you can probably guess from the title of this section, Oriole B is Orioles’ shortstop Tim Beckham. Blue Jay [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<h3>How is Tim Beckham Doing This?</h3>
<p>Blue Jay A – 5.6 BB%/15.1 K%/13HR/14SB – 8.0 VORP<br />
Oriole B – 5.8 BB%/28.3 K%/ 18HR/ 6SB – 29.1 VORP</p>
<p>As you can probably guess from the title of this section, Oriole B is Orioles’ shortstop Tim Beckham. Blue Jay A is Kevin Pillar. Despite posting a similar walk rate and a K rate 13.2% higher than Pillar’s, Beckham has managed to make himself significantly more offensively valuable in 55 fewer at-bats this season. Beckham has been especially hot since being traded to Baltimore, hitting .393/.418/.667 since August 1st.</p>
<p>The O’s shortstop and former first-overall pick who was acquired at the non-waiver trade deadline is having what may be a breakout season at age-27, slashing .295/.341/.477. Given his problematic plate approach, is his breakout sustainable or is he benefiting from the same Orioles’ devil magic that seemingly keeps them in contention no matter how many times they trot Ubaldo Jimenez out to the mound?</p>
<p>Despite his contact problems, Beckham has always managed to run high batting averages on balls in play, posting a career BABIP of .352. This year, Beckham’s BABIP is sitting at .386, uncharacteristically high even for him. Given his exit velocity sits a tick above average at 88.6 mph, Beckham has been benefiting from some batted ball luck. The only other change in his offensive profile is that Beckham has managed to significantly cut his infield fly ball percentage – from 12.8% in 2016 and a career average 7.1% all the way down to 4.3%, well below the league average of 9.6%. For reference, if you’re wondering why Pillar has been so much less valuable, he pops up at a 15.3% clip.</p>
<p>Can Beckham keep up his torrid pace? Definitely not. When some of his batted balls stop falling for hits, his average (and OBP with it) are going to regress. But if he is able to keep minimizing his infield flyball percentage, he may be able to keep some of the offensive gains he’s made this season. Coupled with his defense at shortstop, the Orioles will definitely take it. And everyone else will continue to shake our heads.</p>
<h3>Get Your Outfielders Ready</h3>
<p>Thursday night’s matchup involves two pitchers who operate with nearly identical strategies. Of all qualified starters in 2017, Marco Estrada and Jeremy Hellickson rank 2nd and 6th respectively in fly ball percentage. Both use nearly the exact same pitch mix, with their primary weapons being the fastball and changeup, while also turning to the curveball and cutter on occasion. While both have had success in the past, each pitcher has also shared in their struggles during the 2017 campaign.</p>
<p>Hellickson was a trade deadline acquisition for Baltimore, one whose mediocre campaign with the Phillies has taken a turn for the worst since donning the orange and black. In five starts for the Orioles, the right-hander has tossed 29 and 2/3 innings with an ERA of 5.46. His home run issues have become even more pronounced, giving up seven home runs over the same stretch. On the year, he has given up 1.84 home runs per nine innings as his increased fly ball percentage in comparison to years past has lead to a new career high in home runs allowed.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Estrada has been no stranger to struggles of his own this year. Over his 151 and 2/3 innings pitched he has produced an ERA of 5.04 giving up home runs at a rate of 1.42 per nine innings. Despite this, he has pitched better as of late, lasting at least 6 innings in five of his last six starts. Over the same period, he has tossed an ERA of 3.86 over 37 and 1/3 innings, striking out 30 and walking 12.</p>
<p>Adding to the potential fireworks are both teams’ tendency to slug fly balls. This could be especially troublesome for Estrada, considering that Baltimore currently leads baseball in xWOBA on fly balls at .458. While Toronto sits down in 20th by the same measure with a .412 xWOBA, they are also 13th in the majors in home runs. Combining these two teams’ offensive firepower with extreme fly ball pitchers could potentially lead to quite the power display Thursday night.</p>
<h3>Osuna or Later His Season Will End</h3>
<p>Roberto Osuna is still at the back of the bullpen, saving games more often than not for the Toronto Blue Jays. And, despite his success (which has been interrupted by both bad luck and poor execution lately), it probably isn’t going to be that way much longer.</p>
<p>Osuna is not complaining publicly about any injury. That’s nice, but it’s also clearly not entirely honest. Velocity is a great indicator of possible injury concerns with pitchers, as is exit velocity with batters. It’s not the only thing, but if you can’t move 100% comfortably through your motion, it follows you can’t hit 100% of your speed.</p>
<p>Osuna had a lowered average velocity to start the year, but started to loosen up a bit in June of this year, observe the Brooks Baseball graph:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13226" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture1.png" alt="Picture1" width="843" height="433" /></a></p>
<p>Notable, though is that even during his best month in 2017 he was not throwing as hard as his worst month in 2016. And then in July and August, he dipped below 95 mph average and has continued sliding.</p>
<p>Instead of average velocity, we can check max velocity. If the average is lower, but the max is pretty close to the Osuna of old, we could speculate that that’s a strategic decision to mix speeds more and disrupt the timing of hitters.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13227" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture2.png" alt="Picture2" width="815" height="386" /></a></p>
<p>So there it is. Or isn’t really. Roberto can try and reach back for a little something extra, and what he gets is 96mph. Only a year ago that was 99mph. We could look at the sudden plethora of cutters and two seam fastballs as other evidence that throwing the hard four seamer is not easy for him anymore, but the velocity drop is probably argument enough when it’s 3 mph.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna is not right, and in a lost season it’s only a matter of time before the team has to decide to do the right thing and look to the long term. If Roberto Osuna isn’t asked to answer the bell in a save situation this series, it’s not his fault, it’s a decision that’s been a long time coming.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Source: Marco Estrada Claimed on Revocable Waivers By AL East Team</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/15/source-marco-estrada-claimed-on-revocable-waivers-by-al-east-team/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Aug 2017 19:47:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12987</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jon Morosi reported this afternoon on Twitter that Marco Estrada was claimed on revocable waivers. A source with knowledge of the situation has told BP Toronto that the claiming team is one that plays in the American League East. The source was not able to directly name the team, but implied heavily that it was [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jon Morosi <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/897541522849181696" target="_blank">reported this afternoon</a> on Twitter that Marco Estrada was claimed on revocable waivers. A source with knowledge of the situation has told BP Toronto that the claiming team is one that plays in the American League East. The source was not able to directly name the team, but implied heavily that it was the New York Yankees.</p>
<p>The source also said that the team is believed to have claimed Estrada solely to block a trade from happening, and that a trade to the claiming team is unlikely to occur. The team has showed no willingness to exchange names with the Blue Jays to discuss a trade.</p>
<p>Estrada, 34, will be a free agent at the end of the season, and has a $14.5 million salary in 2017. He has pitched to 4.85 ERA in 24 starts this year.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Murky Mosaic of the Blue Jays Post Trade Deadline</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/02/the-murky-mosaic-of-the-blue-jays-post-trade-deadline/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/02/the-murky-mosaic-of-the-blue-jays-post-trade-deadline/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Aug 2017 10:03:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[July 31st is in the rearview mirror, and the Toronto Blue Jays look a little bit different than they did a few days ago. Gone are Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. Nori Aoki is here, although whatever that means remains to be seen. However, the biggest story of the deadline for the Blue Jays wasn&#8217;t the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>July 31st is in the rearview mirror, and the Toronto Blue Jays look a little bit different than they did a few days ago. Gone are Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith. Nori Aoki is here, although whatever that means remains to be seen. However, the biggest story of the deadline for the Blue Jays wasn&#8217;t the trades that were made or the prospects they were able to coax out of them. For me, it was who remained in Toronto, namely Marco Estrada and Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/07/source-blue-jays-finalize-plans-for-july-trades/" target="_blank">went into July</a> open and willing to trade their pending free agents, but enter August with half of them still on the team. That&#8217;s telling, and provides the Blue Jays with some questions that they must try to answer over the next two months or in the off-season.</p>
<p>The first question mark deals with Estrada and where he will be in 2018. The Blue Jays decided to keep Estrada on Monday because they weren&#8217;t offered anything of value for him leading up to the deadline. Deals presented themselves in many different iterations, but all of them provided little to no substance returning to the Blue Jays for two months of Estrada&#8217;s services. In the end, Ross Atkins and his team decided that instead of getting a low level minor league player or some international slot money, they would rather keep Estrada for the next two months. As <a href="https://twitter.com/BProToronto/status/892204781204320257" target="_blank">we reported</a> on Monday night, both sides are interested in an extension, but it remains to be seen whether talks will start now, or will wait until after the season.</p>
<p>But how much should the Blue Jays be willing to pay Estrada given how poorly he has performed in 2017? I don&#8217;t think there is any easy answer to that question. Estrada&#8217;s agent will surely point to this fantastic 2015 and 2016 seasons and make the case that this year is the outlier, but is it? Estrada&#8217;s stuff is unquestionably better in 2017, but the results aren&#8217;t showing up. His velocity is higher than it has been in years and his movement is almost the same. Yet it is August 2nd and Estrada has had two good performances in the past two months, one of those coming against the second worst offensive team in the American League. Something is wrong, and the Blue Jays have to be very sure they can fix that before committing millions of dollars to a 34-year-old.</p>
<p>Then there is Jose Bautista, a franchise icon who has started a rapid decline phase in his career, with a TAv that has sunk from .332 in 2014 to .248 this season. Other teams weren&#8217;t oblivious to that fact, and like Estrada, no good deals were offered that would have made the Blue Jays braintrust <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892149015499898880" target="_blank">go to Bautista</a> to ask him to waive his 10/5 rights that he has accrued as a long time member of the club. However, Bautista told club officials that he wants to be here, so even if a good deal <em>did</em> present itself, he may not have accepted.</p>
<p>With Bautista still in the fold, the club will also need to decide what to do with him. The decision makers on this team believe that the Blue Jays are a better team with Bautista on it than without him and they still have a &#8220;slight glimmer of hope&#8221; in his future performance according to a source with the club. That said, they still plan on declining their end of Bautista&#8217;s mutual option when the time comes in a few months and then deciding what to do with him.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s clear to me that if the team wants to contend, Bautista can&#8217;t be an everyday player anymore. His defense has been below average for years, but as he approaches the last few years of his 30&#8217;s, it is getting to the point of being unplayable. That would be fine if he could make up for it with his bat, but that is so obviously not the case anymore. His walk rate has fallen at the same time his strikeout rate has jumped. His power numbers have nosedived and the ball has left his bat almost four mph slower this season than it did in 2015. Those four points may not be scary individually, but taken together they make up the perfect recipe for a player who isn&#8217;t very good anymore.</p>
<p>But Bautista is the Blue Jays and the Blue Jays are Bautista. Until he decides to retire, he should be with this team. However, the trades yesterday indicate that the Blue Jays are going to try to contend in 2018, and if that is the case, Bautista&#8217;s only role on that team should be off of the bench.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Report: Kansas City Royals Linked to Marco Estrada</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/report-kansas-city-royals-linked-to-marco-estrada/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Jul 2017 22:48:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12494</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A report from SB Nation&#8217;s Chris Cotillo earlier today linked the Kansas City Royals and Blue Jays&#8217; pending free agent Marco Estrada: Still count the Royals as buyers. Expect them to be in on rental SPs. Two names I&#39;ve heard linked to them: Jaime Garcia and Marco Estrada. &#8212; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) July 19, 2017 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A report from SB Nation&#8217;s Chris Cotillo earlier today linked the Kansas City Royals and Blue Jays&#8217; pending free agent Marco Estrada:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Still count the Royals as buyers. Expect them to be in on rental SPs. Two names I&#39;ve heard linked to them: Jaime Garcia and Marco Estrada.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/887738936679968775">July 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Estrada, 34, has struggled in 2017, with a 5.33 ERA in 19 games started for the Blue Jays, after two very successful years at the front of the rotation in Toronto. What has plagued him this season has been a mystery, and numerous attempts to correct various mechanical issues have failed thus far.</p>
<p>After Cotillo&#8217;s report, I asked a Blue Jays source to confirm, and although he was not able to confirm the Royals&#8217; interest in Estrada, he was able to say that if the Blue Jays were to trade Estrada this trade deadline, the return would likely be made of players in Advanced-A ball or Double-A.</p>
<p>Additionally, the source pointed out that if the Blue Jays were to trade with the Royals, some players they could be interested in are OF Donnie Dewees, 1B Samir Duenez, RHP Glenn Sparkman (yes, him), or RHP Andres Machado. Dewees, Duenez, and Sparkman are all currently with the AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, while Machado is with the Wilmington Blue Rocks in Advanced-A. Dewees was ranked Kansas City&#8217;s 11th top prospect according to <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=kc" target="_blank">MLB Pipeline</a>, while Duenez came in at 17th on their list.</p>
<p>Although those players may seem like a small return for a player with a track record of success, it is important to keep in mind that Estrada is under control for just two more months, and also the market that the club finds itself in right now. The trade market is relatively weak, and it looks like it will be a buyer&#8217;s market in the coming weeks leading up to the deadline. Combine that with Estrada not having much success in 2017, and the Blue Jays won&#8217;t necessarily be able to get much of a prospect return in a potential trade for him.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Marco Estrada on His June Struggles and Juiced Baseballs</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/04/marco-estrada-on-his-june-struggles-and-juiced-baseballs/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Jul 2017 10:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12160</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK &#8212; Marco Estrada nodded, walked towards Pete Walker, and put his things on the grass. He chatted with the Blue Jays pitching coach for a few minutes, and then headed back into the Blue Jays clubhouse with a smile on his face. That was the scene at four o&#8217;clock on Monday afternoon in Yankee [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK &#8212; Marco Estrada nodded, walked towards Pete Walker, and put his things on the grass. He chatted with the Blue Jays pitching coach for a few minutes, and then headed back into the Blue Jays clubhouse with a smile on his face. That was the scene at four o&#8217;clock on Monday afternoon in Yankee Stadium after Estrada had thrown off of flat ground to attempt to correct whatever has been plaguing him over the past five weeks. The results of his past six starts have been ugly &#8211; a 9.11 ERA in 27 and 2/3 innings pitched is usually cause for alarm. But sitting in the air conditioned clubhouse after that throwing session, Estrada wasn&#8217;t in the mood to feel the heat. On his recent struggles, he said it is nothing to worry about in the long run:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;It is what it is. It happens in baseball. We all go through it. I&#8217;m feeling pretty good. Playing catch today, [I] felt much better than I have. I worked on a bunch of things.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>That&#8217;s the mentality one likely wants to see from a pitcher going through a down period like Estrada has been recently. It&#8217;s easy to let struggles impact one&#8217;s psyche in baseball, but to brush them aside and look for solutions to the problems is how one improves and moves forward.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s been a mystery to fans, media, and the Blue Jays alike what has caused Estrada to pitch so uncharacteristically poorly recently, but one theory that has been floating around on the internet is that changes in Estrada&#8217;s release point have had an impact. Estrada was unaware that he was doing anything different. &#8220;Really? Wow,&#8221; he said after he was informed that his horizontal release point had decreased by almost half a foot on all of his pitches this season, moving closer to his head, and that his vertical release point is about four inches higher as well. &#8220;I guess it&#8217;s something I should look into,&#8221; Estrada continued, expressing a deep interest in something he feels could be a reason why he has been missing his spots. However, he also hypothesized a possible reason as to why the data is showing he has changed his arm slot, when he hasn&#8217;t been doing it consciously:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;I feel like I have been trying to get on top of the ball more. I&#8217;m kind of doing it, by tilting more. It doesn&#8217;t necessarily mean I&#8217;m bringing my arm up higher. It&#8217;s more of a tilt&#8230; Which is causing me to fly open, and miss my spots&#8230; I think that&#8217;s something we worked on, that I&#8217;ve been working on, and I think I got it&#8230; I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;s necessarily my arm slot going up higher. It&#8217;s me just trying tilting. My arm is going higher, but it&#8217;s because of my tilt, not because [of] any arm slot change.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>That&#8217;s an interesting theory from Marco, as it shows that not only does he understand the background behind the statistical analysis that is prevalent in the game today, but that he is also aware that he has been doing something differently. What&#8217;s concerning is that it&#8217;s still a guessing game. Estrada has struggled for a month now and no direct remedy to his problems has been found.</p>
<p>Many have also discussed the possibility that Estrada&#8217;s transition away from being an extreme flyball pitcher to one who also relies on strikeouts to achieve success could be behind the struggles. Estrada has shot all the way up the strikeout leaderboard this year to find himself in the top 20 in K%, after placing 43rd overall in 2015 and 2016. But Estrada doesn&#8217;t buy into that. In fact, if Estrada had it his way, he wouldn&#8217;t strike any batters out:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Honestly, I don&#8217;t care if I strikeout another person the rest of the year. I want to go 7, 8, 9 innings every outing. And if I don&#8217;t have a strikeout, I&#8217;ll be happy. I don&#8217;t really care about strikeouts. It&#8217;s happened because I am throwing a little bit harder. I think, [I am] getting more swings and misses off of those high fastballs, but it isn&#8217;t something I am looking for. It&#8217;s just [that] I&#8217;m healthy&#8230; I&#8217;m a lot healthier. On good days, I have a little more life on the ball, and it&#8217;s caused more strikeouts.&#8221;</em></p>
<blockquote><p><em>&#8220;Honestly, I don&#8217;t care if I strikeout another person the rest of the year. I want to go 7, 8, 9 innings every outing. And if I don&#8217;t have a strikeout, I&#8217;ll be happy.&#8221;</em></p></blockquote>
<p>It is true that he is throwing harder. His average fastball velocity is up over 90 MPH for the first time since 2013, and it has been responsible for a larger chunk of strikeouts for Marco than ever before in his Blue Jays tenure. In 2015, Estrada&#8217;s fastball generated strikeouts at a 17.4% rate, and 18.5% last year. This season, Estrada is getting strikeouts on 26.2% of fastballs that factor into the play, a huge increase of over eight percentage points in just one season.</p>
<p>Another reason people think Estrada may be struggling is because of how his past success has been heavily influenced by his ability to utilize that aforementioned high fastball, and with the sudden rise in home runs being hit, he is suffering more than most. His HR/9 has spiked to 1.40, the highest it has been for Marco while with Toronto. But Marco doesn&#8217;t think about that all that much, instead staying true to his mantra that &#8220;if you&#8217;re going to give up a homer, just make sure it is with nobody on.&#8221;</p>
<p>Estrada also told <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/mlb-home-run-explosion-2016-juiced-baseballs-blame/story?id=40730384" target="_blank">ABC News last year</a> that knuckleballer R.A. Dickey believed that the seams on the balls were being wound tighter, which was causing the dramatic increase in home runs. Well, that theory seems to have been all but <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-mlbs-new-home-run-era-its-the-baseballs-that-are-juicing/" target="_blank">confirmed recently</a>, and Estrada isn&#8217;t all that surprised:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;You feel the ball, it feels a little bit different. To me, it feels a little smaller&#8230; If the seams are wound tighter, obviously they are going to go a little farther. It&#8217;s probably the case. But everybody is pitching with it, so [I] deal with it&#8230; I don&#8217;t know how true it really is, to be honest, but they do feel a little bit different.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Meanwhile, Estrada is focused on himself, and not the ball. &#8220;Who cares? It&#8217;s going to be a part of the game,&#8221; he told me about the supposed changes to the ball and whether he will alter his approach to deal with the home run spike. Whether he does or doesn&#8217;t, he&#8217;s still confident in the future.</p>
<p><em> &#8220;I feel like it&#8217;s about to turn around for me.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>For the Blue Jays sake, he better hope so.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How Marco Estrada&#8217;s Been the Same, but Different in 2017</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/19/how-marco-estrada-has-been-the-same-but-different-in-2017/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 19 May 2017 11:09:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11003</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ever since moving into the Blue Jays rotation on May 5, 2015, Marco Estrada has been one of the more effective pitchers in the American League and an extremely reliable member of the Toronto starting five (or six). As such, it should surprise nobody to see that Estrada is currently sporting a 3.60 ERA or [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ever since moving into the Blue Jays rotation on May 5, 2015, Marco Estrada has been one of the more effective pitchers in the American League and an extremely reliable member of the Toronto starting five (or six). As such, it should surprise nobody to see that Estrada is currently sporting a 3.60 ERA or that he has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his nine starts. He has his hiccups like any other pitcher (especially against Tampa), but Blue Jays fans feel confident every time the Sonora, Mexico native takes the mound.</p>
<p>While still good, however, this may not be the same Marco Estrada that we’ve seen for the last two years. To find out for certain, we need to look a bit deeper at Estrada’s performance so far this year.</p>
<p>The difference that jumps out immediately is that Estrada is getting strikeouts again. Last year he started to bring them back (22.8 K%) after a contact heavy 2015, but they’ve taken another leap forward this year to 25.4 percent, a rate which the righthander hasn’t reached since the 2012 season in Milwaukee.</p>
<p>While that jump is certainly significant, it’s not exactly enough to tell us what is happening. As <a href="https://theathletic.com/60517/2017/05/16/for-blue-jays-starter-marco-estrada-the-more-pitches-he-throws-the-better-he-gets/" target="_blank">John Lott wrote earlier this week at The Athletic</a>, we <em>do</em> know that Estrada has changed his pitch mix for this year:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-8.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11004" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-8-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (8)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Estrada is throwing more changeups this year than ever before. Given that the pitch generates more whiffs than anything else Estrada throws, that would seem to explain the change. However, that’s not the case. In fact, Estrada is actually getting fewer swings and misses on the changeup than normal:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-9.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11005" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-9-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (9)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Typically one would assume that the increase in strikeouts would come with a similar increase in swings and misses. While he&#8217;s getting more whiffs on fastballs and cutters, overall the opposite is actually happening. Last year hitters made contact on 76 percent of swings against Estrada, while this year it has actually risen (albeit marginally) to 76.9 percent.</p>
<p>Instead, Estrada is throwing more strikes overall, with 51 percent of his pitches ending up in the strike zone this season (<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1118&amp;position=P#platediscipline" target="_blank">career 47.8 percent</a>). We can see this by looking at his comparative pitch location grid from 2016-2017:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/2016-es.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11006" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/2016-es-1024x526.png" alt="2016 es" width="900" height="461" /></a></p>
<p>While the shading on those charts can suggest greater differences than actually exist, there are clear indications that Estrada is pitching both more in the zone overall and specifically down and to his glove side (right on the grid). Why does this matter for strikeouts? As we’ve established, Estrada isn’t getting extra swings and misses, so he needs more people taking with two strikes.</p>
<p>This is accomplished in two ways. First, he gets more people guessing by throwing the changeup nearly as often as the fastball (which is evidenced by the increased whiff rate on his hard stuff).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Est-r-2s.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11007" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Est-r-2s-1024x512.png" alt="Est r 2s" width="900" height="416" /></a></p>
<p>By combining that with a spot low and away to where it’s tough to pick up (100% of the increased takes in that spot are vs RHBs), Estrada is getting hitters to hesitate just long enough to take strike three. He already has five strikeouts looking against righties this year on pitches that are actually in the strike zone &#8211; not umpire errors &#8211; when he only had seven all of last year.</p>
<p>It hasn’t all been rosy this year, however. While the strikeouts are good, batters are getting hits far more often against Estrada. The overall increase in contact will naturally cause raw hit totals to go up, but the rate at which people are getting hits has risen dramatically. In 2015 and 2016, Marco Estrada led the league in H/9 at 6.7 and 6.8, respectively. That number has risen to 8.2 this year.</p>
<p>What should be more encouraging (again on the surface) is that those hit rates are coming with a .293 BABIP. To most people, that probably sounds completely normal. It’s right in the league average range and thus would seem like there is no real sign of regression. Except if you’ve followed Marco Estrada, you know .293 is unusually high. Estrada’s career BABIP is .258, with rates of just .216 and .234 in the last couple of years.</p>
<p>Estrada has always been able to generate these low averages on balls in play on the back of his incredible ability to get hitters to pop the ball up. Unfortunately, those seem to have gone away too:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/pop.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11008" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/pop.png" alt="pop" width="115" height="84" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, Estrada has changed from an all-world popup artist into one that is average at best. Given everything we know about the man who once had <a href="http://bluejayhunter.com/2015/09/jays-fans-have-been-tracking-pop-outs-with-pizza-pops.html" target="_blank">fans hanging Pizza Pop signs from the balconies for pop outs</a>, this is extremely surprising. This shows up in the launch angle data as well:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/launch-angl.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11009" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/launch-angl.png" alt="launch angl" width="149" height="82" /></a></p>
<p>The average launch angle on Estrada’s pitches this year is way, way down. In fact, his GB/FB rate is up to 0.81, the highest it has been since 2013, which came before Estrada <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/how-much-should-we-believe-in-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">raised his arm angle</a>. While the increase in changeups would account for a slight decline, Estrada’s popup rates are down for every pitch, including his famously “rising” fastball.</p>
<p>Once again though, there is good news on this front which suggests the ship will right itself. For starters, batters aren’t hitting the ball any harder against Estrada this year than they did in the past (average exit velocities of 87.4/87.3 mph in 2015/2016, 87.4 mph this year). More importantly though, there has been no decline in the quality of Estrada’s stuff.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-10.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11010" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-10-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (10)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>As most people have probably noticed, Estrada is throwing a bit harder this year. His average fastball is over a mile per hour harder this year than last. This brings each of his offering back to his breakout 2015 levels, which we would expect now that Estrada seems to be clear of the back issues that plagued him for much of last season (forcing two DL stints).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-12.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11011" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-12.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (12)" width="962" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>From the look of those graphs, it seems as if Estrada is getting even MORE rise on his pitches than last year. This might not actually be the case, as I have been informed that the conversion INSERT could account for the difference here, but at worst this means the movement is essentially unchanged for both offerings (with no change in release point or spin rate, this follows logically). When you combine that with the velocity increase, that actually creates even more of a “rising” sensation than Estrada was showing in the past. This is just simple physics, because the ball is taking less time to travel to the plate, there is less time for the pitch to fall.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-11.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11012" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Brooksbaseball-Chart-11-1024x683.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (11)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>While the data again is a bit difficult to trust, what’s specifically notable is the gap between the increase in fastball “rise” from 2016 to 2017 (0.39 inches) and the decrease in the rate at which Estrada’s fastball is falling due to gravity (1.5 inches). Even if the data can’t be compared to last year, we can compare the difference within the current system to the difference from last year. Thus, if we assume his overall rise is actually the same 13” from last year, batters would still be seeing the ball a whole inch higher in 2017.</p>
<p>All in all, there is actually no really obvious reason for batters to be hitting the ball in the air less &#8211; and in fact reasons to think it should even rise from last year’s career high launch angle and popup rate &#8211; which suggests this will turn around very soon. And if he keeps up the increased strike rate, all the better.</p>
<p>To make a long post short, Marco Estrada is doing things a little bit differently, but they will probably end up the same. All that means is that we’ll once again get to watch one of the best pitchers in the league for as long as he’s in a Blue Jays uniform.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Weigh in on the Red Sox and Orioles Feud</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/04/the-blue-jays-weigh-in-on-the-red-sox-and-orioles-feud/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 May 2017 10:01:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Manny Machado]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK – The Blue Jays are not well liked across Major League Baseball. The loud style of play that endears the team to its fans comes across as obnoxious and pretentious to opposing clubs, and has resulted in plenty of dust ups over the Bautista years of this franchise. Rivalries have spawned with the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK – The Blue Jays are not well liked across Major League Baseball. The loud style of play that endears the team to its fans comes across as obnoxious and pretentious to opposing clubs, and has resulted in plenty of dust ups over the Bautista years of this franchise. Rivalries have spawned with the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, and Kansas City Royals for these reasons, and although this has meant that games with these clubs are always must watch TV, it also has resulted in many dangerous situations.</p>
<p>That isn&#8217;t unique in baseball, of course. If you have been paying attention recently, you have heard about the current feud exploding between the aforementioned Orioles and the Boston Red Sox over a hard, but unintentional slide from Manny Machado, and the retaliation pitches that have stemmed from that play. On Tuesday night, after being targeted by Chris Sale, Machado went on an <a href="http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=19298157&amp;sf75525280=1" target="_blank">expletive filled rant</a> to the media about how pitchers are allowed almost free reign when it comes to throwing at batters, and how he has lost all respect he had for the Boston Red Sox organization.</p>
<p>On Wednesday afternoon in the Blue Jays clubhouse, ESPN was playing Machado&#8217;s rant on repeat on the clubhouse televisions. As the players walked around between their workouts and pre-game routines, their eyes were glued to the monitors, digesting the play that had unfolded and Machado&#8217;s subsequent comments. Marco Estrada, the Blue Jays resident leader of the pitching staff, weighed in on the feud, taking a rather ambivalent, yet self-serving approach to the situation.</p>
<p>&#8220;<i>Let them do their thing. If they want to throw at each other and hurt each other, that’s on them.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>It&#8217;s a fun, but simple quote. However, when asked about his thoughts on the practice of throwing at batters in general, he had a lot more to say. Estrada maintained that as a pitcher, he has to look out for his teammates if a situation arises where they are being put in danger. &#8220;You got to protect your players. If it needs to happen, it needs to happen&#8221; he said while shrugging, as if to express his displeasure with the current way the game deals with these things. He added that he doesn&#8217;t &#8220;want to see anybody get hurt from it&#8221;, and was very clear about the following:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;If the other team is out throwing at us left and right&#8230;We can&#8217;t just let pitchers drill our guys, and let it be, or move on.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Jose Bautista was more interested in talking about the sentiment that this is how the game has been played for years, and how the players need to use common sense on these matters to avoid hurting anybody.</p>
<p><i>&#8220;I don&#8217;t think there is a right or a wrong way [to retaliate]. It&#8217;s just common sense. I mean putting people at injury risk&#8230; Nobody is out here, I believe and I would hope, to injure anybody. There is a certain protocol on how the game has been played for a long time and most people want that to be respected. But there should be ways to do it without putting people in harms way.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Estrada made sure to differentiate between throwing at a player&#8217;s backside and head hunting, the latter of which he said &#8220;should never be done&#8221;.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;There is a certain protocol on how the game has been played for a long time and most people want that to be respected. But there should be ways to do it without putting people in harms way.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p><i>&#8220;If you can&#8217;t keep the ball in the safe zone, don&#8217;t try to do it. It&#8217;s dangerous. You can end somebody&#8217;s career trying to do something like that.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Steve Pearce also weighed in, saying that &#8220;sometimes it gets taken a little too far,&#8221; but generally players &#8220;want to stick up for [their] teammates&#8221;. Pearce has an especially interesting perspective on all of this because the Blue Jays are now his fourth AL East team, and changing clubs has allowed him to see both sides of certain rivalries. He said that these rivalries tend &#8220;to stay between the lines&#8221;, and there are no hard feelings afterwards. Pearce added that although he has been on many teams, the general view point among players about these issues is &#8220;basically the same&#8221; everywhere. You may think that the journeyman would have no part in old rivalries, but Pearce explained that it doesn&#8217;t play out like that:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;When you go from team to team, sometimes you inherit somebody else&#8217;s beef. They&#8217;re your team and you have to stick up for them.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>That would perhaps shed some light on Matt Bush bizarrely taking centre stage in the Blue Jays &#8211; Rangers fight last season even though he was not around for the Bat Flip.</p>
<p>Pearce has also changed his style of play throughout the years when running the bases to avoid injuring players or breaking the newly implemented rules for sliding into a base. While laughing, he said that he doesn&#8217;t even &#8220;want to slide into second&#8221; anymore, choosing instead &#8220;to peel off, and save all the crap that&#8217;s going on now.&#8221;</p>
<p>Of course, you may have realized that this entire conversation stemmed from Manny Machado decrying being thrown at, something his team has done often against the Blue Jays, and specifically towards Jose Bautista. He didn&#8217;t want to get into that, or anything to do with the Red Sox and Orioles on Wednesday. Bautista shook his head from side to side while making a devilish smile when asked about the hypocrisy behind Machado&#8217;s statement, saying &#8220;I don&#8217;t want to be out of line, and comment on something that I shouldn&#8217;t be commenting on.&#8221;</p>
<p>So what does Estrada think about this all? Does he wish to see MLB do something to change the way the game has been played?</p>
<p><i>&#8220;I don&#8217;t know. F*ck, if it happens, it happens. It&#8217;s been part of the game. It&#8217;s not going to change.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Basically, who knows?</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Enhanced Frustration of Familiar Blue Jays Problems</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2017 13:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse when it&#8217;s the exact same issues year over year.</p>
<p>This Blue Jays team is remarkably unchanged from the version that we saw on Opening Day one year ago. Among the 14 spots in the starting lineup and rotation, there have been just three changes: Kendrys Morales has replaced Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Liriano pitches instead of R.A. Dickey, and Michael Saunders has shrunk a few inches while simultaneously either being a little pudgier or becoming a lot more Venezuelan. Oh sorry, that&#8217;s Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>As such, not only have the flaws of certain Jays players been exposed early on, but those flaws could have been predicted or addressed, in some cases. In other cases it&#8217;s just a player who, while good, is not perfect, and their imperfections have shone through.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Unaddressable</h3>
<h4>Marco Estrada&#8217;s Changeup Digs the Long Ball</h4>
<p>In most cases, Marco Estrada uses his tightly spun changeup to dazzle hitters into hitting perfectly placed in field pop ups. That&#8217;s a large part of what&#8217;s made him so incredibly effective over the last two seasons. However, on Sunday April 9th against the Rays, that was not at all the case. Estrada lasted five innings in that start, but was peppered by Rays hitters for three home runs on the night.</p>
<p>The first home run was hit by the Rays&#8217; Corey Dickerson in the bottom of the third. The changeup was <a href="http://i.imgur.com/ZxGDI5C.png" target="_blank">up and in</a>, but Dickerson got just enough of it to dink the ball over the short wall in the left field corner at Tropicana field. You can cut Marco Estrada some slack on this one. Per <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a>, it had a true distance of just 326 feet and wouldn&#8217;t have been a home run in any other park in the majors.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171.jpg"><img class="wp-image-10184 size-medium alignnone" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171-300x295.jpg" alt="tropicanafield_2017_171" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>The Path of Dickerson&#8217;s HR via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/hrdetail.php?id=2017_171" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>Unfortunately the homer troubles didn&#8217;t end there. After a Kevin Kiermaier triple and a Brad Miller walk, Steven Souza Jr. hit his own homer to left field, once again off of a changeup that Estrada left <a href="http://i.imgur.com/JbXIrme.png" target="_blank">up and over the plate</a>. A weak ground ball to first base got Marco Estrada out of the inning, but there was still more to come. In the bottom of the fourth, after going down 0-2, Jesus Sucre hit a home run off of, you guessed it, an Estrada changeup.</p>
<p>Estrada’s hasn’t always struggled with home runs off his changeup, but his propensity to give up home runs in general is the worst part of his game. His 1.18 HR/9 ranked 29th worst among qualified pitchers in 2016. Yet Marco Estrada&#8217;s changeup is his bread and butter pitch. Because it&#8217;s so good and because this is only a single start, it&#8217;s really not worth worrying about, but it&#8217;s certainly frustrating.</p>
<h4>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s Achilles Heel</h4>
<p>Josh Donaldson is a notoriously robust baseball player and he&#8217;s played in more than 155 games in each of the last four seasons. However, the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/josh-donaldson-vikings-history-canada-1.3941918" target="_blank">viking-esuqe star</a> has a Greek flaw, but it&#8217;s in his calf rather than his heel. On Sunday, Donaldson pulled up after running out a ground ball. Donaldson had to be removed from the game and missed the Blue Jays&#8217; home opener (save for a 9th inning pinch hitting appearance) as a result of what the team is calling a calf injury. This isn&#8217;t the first time that he&#8217;s had calf issues either. In the Blue Jays first series at Tropicana Field in 2016, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-josh-donaldson-exits-game-rays/" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson limped his way to first base</a>, which also resulted in his being pulled from the game and getting diagnosed with a calf injury. The best predictor of a lack of injuries in the future is a lack of injuries in the past. Donaldson shouldn&#8217;t have too many nagging issues going forward, but it sure sucks when there&#8217;s even a chance of losing the player who&#8217;s <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2023770">posted more value than the rest of your lineup combined</a>.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Clearly Addressable</h3>
<h4>Ryan Goins&#8217; Existence on the Blue Jays Active Roster</h4>
<p>For some reason, Ryan Goins is still here. Personally, I have nothing against Ryan Goins, but I&#8217;ve yet to see any strong argument for his continued presence in Toronto. Following the team&#8217;s choice of Goins over Melvin Upton Jr., Gideon Turk <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/">wrote that it was Goins&#8217; flexibility and fit for the team&#8217;s present roster construction that forced the Blue Jays hand</a>. While that answer makes sense in a vacuum, no roster needs two no-hit middle infielders on the bench, especially not when one of the two is MLB’s worst hitter. In some ways, the Blue Jays have proved that as Goins and Barney have split playing time, neither having being used in the same game. Even in the Blue Jays home opener, a game in which Ryan Goins started at 3B, the team found no need to use the second middle infielder on the bench. Instead, all we saw were three paltry plate appearances and one miraculous walk. Had there not been two middle infielders on the bench, someone palatable could have pinch hit for one of the Jays&#8217; light hitters. There’s no need for both players. Now only if the Blue Jays would see it.</p>
<h4>The Belief that Justin Smoak Starting at 1B is Ok</h4>
<p>In spite of his once immaculate prospect status, Justin Smoak has not been a great major league player. In fact <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=2800&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=1950&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=21,a" target="_blank">very few first basemen have been as bad as Justin Smoak has</a>, while getting as much major league playing time. That trend hasn&#8217;t changed much in 2017, as he has only continued to strike out at what seem to be the Blue Jays most opportune run scoring moments. Additionally, his hitting performance is not the only issue with his starting at 1B. He has also forced Steve Pearce in to the confines of left field. Steve Pearce is a versatile player, but he&#8217;s by no means an ideal defensive left fielder and he&#8217;s shown that so far this season. The only reason he continues to be forced out there is Justin Smoak&#8217;s presence at first base and on the Blue Jays payroll.</p>
<p>Some have continued to argue that the Blue Jays <em>must </em>have some advanced metric that tells them Smoak&#8217;s true first base defense is not only better than the publicly available defensive metrics say, but good enough to offset his being one of MLB&#8217;s worst hitting first basemen. Given that no other team has recently employed or even attempted to employ a defense first starting 1B, I find that hard to believe. With Pearce&#8217;s versatility, Jose Bautista&#8217;s previous first base experience, and Melvin Upton&#8217;s ability to play all three outfield positions, the Blue Jays had a chance to fix first base. Yet, once again, they squandered it, and they&#8217;ve been rewarded with strikeout after strikeout ever since.</p>
<h3>The Future</h3>
<p>As was noted earlier in this piece, everything that could have gone wrong for the Blue Jays, has gone wrong for the Blue Jays. There&#8217;s no greater evidence of that than their current 1-6 record; the team&#8217;s <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-off-to-worst-start-in-team-history-after-dropping-home-opener-to-milwaukee-brewers-4-3" target="_blank">worst ever start to a season</a>. But it will get better and it&#8217;d be nearly impossible for it not to. That doesn&#8217;t make any of the team&#8217;s current problems, addressable or otherwise, any less frustrating. If one were to see any of the aforementioned issues once it&#8217;d be unfortunate. To see the same issues crop with the same players a year later is even worse. However, it&#8217;s also incredibly easy to see the negatives when the team has only won one game. Once the Blue Jays start dominating again, the addressable woes will be forgotten. That&#8217;s the Blue Jays team we need and the Blue Jays team that we deserve. Until then, the <a href="https://twitter.com/dlbno/status/851979226920001537" target="_blank">barrage of critical tweets</a> are a little more appropriate.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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