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	<title>Toronto &#187; Joe Smith</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays Trade RP Joe Smith to Cleveland</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/joe-smith-trade/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2017 19:15:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[According to Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays have traded reliever Joe Smith to Cleveland in advance of Monday&#8217;s trade deadline. Source: Joe Smith to #Indians. &#8212; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 31, 2017 Smith, 33, signed a one year deal with Toronto this past off-season for $3 million and was worth every penny up until this [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays have traded reliever Joe Smith to Cleveland in advance of Monday&#8217;s trade deadline.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Joe Smith to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Indians?src=hash">#Indians</a>.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/892099934782205953">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Smith, 33, signed a one year deal with Toronto this past off-season for $3 million and was worth every penny up until this point. He has struck out a career high 35.4% of the batters he has faced this year, which is good enough for 14th in baseball among relievers with at least 30 innings pitched. To go along with that, he bounced back from an uncharacteristically high number of home runs allowed in 2016 to allow just 0.76 per nine innings this season, and has posted his lowest walk rate since 2014 at 6.9%.</p>
<p>Smith was well on the way to shattering a bunch of the counting numbers on his career resume before being shelved with shoulder soreness on June 15th. He missed 31 games with the injury, but came back in time to show that he was indeed healthy enough to help a team down the stretch.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s something of a homecoming for Smith. The sidewinding reliever played for Cleveland from 2009-2013, posting a 2.76 ERA across 271 innings and showing the dominant form that led to his three year, $18M dollar deal with the Angels from 2014-2016. He will now join an elite bullpen that includes Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Zach McAllister.</p>
<p>The Jays will be receiving two low-level minor leaguers in return, per Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Two lower level minor leaguers in return. <a href="https://t.co/NRLNPdUPFq">https://t.co/NRLNPdUPFq</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Tim Brown (@TBrownYahoo) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBrownYahoo/status/892101286748983298">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>It looks like the Jays will be getting LHP Tom Pannone and SS Samad Taylor in exchange for two months of Smith.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Indians send minor leaguers LHP Tom Pannone and SS Samad Taylor to Toronto for Joe Smith.</p>
<p>&mdash; paul hoynes (@hoynsie) <a href="https://twitter.com/hoynsie/status/892104820403908610">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Taylor (19 years old) was selected in the 10th round of the 2016 draft and is currently hitting .300/.328/.467 for Mahoning Valley of the short season New York Penn League. Baseball America says that Taylor is a fast who &#8220;takes smart at-bats and makes solid line-drive contact and is beginning to show burgeoning power. Defensively he has the reflexes and quick-twitch attributes to handle both middle infield positions, but his actions and arm are better suited for second base.&#8221;</p>
<p>Pannone (23 years old) is a former 9th round pick (2013) who is currently in Double-A Akron and has pitched to a 2.95 ERA across 82 1/3 innings with 81 strikeouts and 21 walks. He gained some note after dominating high-A Lynchburg to start the year. He didn&#8217;t allow a single run in his five starts there, while striking out 39 across 27.1 innings. This even inspired a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/thomas-pannone-an-indians-prospect-puts-up-zeroes/" target="_blank">Fangraphs profile back in April</a>. <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/indians-acquire-reliever-joe-smith-for-samad-taylor-thomas-pannone/#wDvIMM25B1khQ4Hk.97" target="_blank"></a>Per BA, the six-foot lefty &#8220;sits comfortably 90-91 mph and uses a mid-70s slurvy breaking balls as his main secondary. Where Pannone excels is he works quickly, fills up the zone in all quadrants, and mixes and matches to keep hitters off-balance.&#8221;</p>
<p>Neither player in on the Cleveland top 30, per MLB Pipeline, but the performance is at least showing some value. It&#8217;s also important to note that both Shapiro and Atkins know the Cleveland system very well, so of all teams with whom they could be trading, they&#8217;re likely much more confident in going deep into the Cleveland system than they would be with any other club. Finally, there&#8217;s this report from Cleveland MLB.com reporter (and former Jays reporter) Jonathan Mayo:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">While Pannone (1.96 ERA at AA/A+ in &#39;17), isn&#39;t on CLE&#39;s <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline">@MLBPipeline</a> Top 30, source says some rival clubs view him as Top 10 CLE prospect.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLBastian/status/892107843301765122">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Finally, as Bill Shaikin of the LA Times points out, there is another interesting aspect to the deal.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Joe Smith&#39;s trade to Indians puts him within driving distance of his mom, who has Huntington&#39;s disease. He did fundraiser in CLE last week.</p>
<p>&mdash; Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/892103129071706112">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>While likely not the main reason for the deal, it&#8217;s entirely possible that the Jays weren&#8217;t finding a great match for Smith but did him this courtesy and got the best they could simply as a nice gesture to a member of the team. <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892108137716748289" target="_blank">Joe Smith himself said</a> that if he were traded, Cleveland was the only place he wanted to go. While it&#8217;s true that most players simply chase dollars in free agency, this kind of thing still carries some weight.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Athletics</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/05/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-athletics/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jun 2017 15:34:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Sean Addis, Richard Lee-Sam, and Gideon Turk The Year of the First Basemen The Toronto Blue Jays are not the only team who has a first baseman that is having a breakout year. Oakland’s Yonder Alonso&#8217;s start to the 2017 season is showcasing the potential that the San Diego Padres saw when they [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Sean Addis, Richard Lee-Sam, and Gideon Turk</span></i></p>
<h3><b>The Year of the First Basemen</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Toronto Blue Jays are not the only team who has a first baseman that is having a breakout year. Oakland’s Yonder Alonso&#8217;s start to the 2017 season is showcasing the potential that the San Diego Padres saw when they acquired him from the Cincinnati Reds in 2011. He was so well-regarded that San Diego traded away another highly touted prospect that you may have heard of: Anthony Rizzo.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The potential of Alonso never seemed to translate to the major leagues, however. Over the previous three seasons, Alonso has averaged a slash line of .259/.323/.379 with a career high of nine home runs that was set in his first full season in 2012. However, in 46 games in 2017, he has 16 home runs and a stash line of .297/.395/.685. Alonso also ranks fif</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> in major league baseball with a wRC+ 188 ahead of Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Exploring zone charts from last season and 2017 show a significant increase in exit velocity. He has also been successful hitting pitches away and inside, making Alonso a challenging out for opposing pitchers (Charts below &#8211; 2016 on top, 2017 on the bottom).  </span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-05-at-12.55.40-AM.png"><img class=" wp-image-11440 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-05-at-12.55.40-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-06-05 at 12.55.40 AM" width="475" height="550" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Not only has his ability to drive pitches, as evidenced by the grids above, but Alonso has also improved his patience at the plate. This is indicated by his increase in walk rate to 13.7 %. So why the change in performance? </span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/06/01/yonder-alonso-athletics-swing-adjustments-manny-machado-brother-in-law/102384696/"><span style="font-weight: 400"> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> how Alonso reached out to many players in the league, including Carlos Betlran and Albert Pujols, to discuss their hitting approach. He used the information to help overhaul his swing in the offseason.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">He has become a threatening bat in the middle of the order for the Athletics. The Blue Jays will need to be cautious pitching to him. One positive for Toronto is that they will be starting two left-handed pitchers in this series, JA Happ and Francisco Liriano. Alonso has struggled against southpaws in limited at bats this season. Toronto will hope to continue that trend starting Monday.</span></p>
<h3>Joe Random</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If the Blue Jays are leading a close game in the late innings, you can expect to see John Gibbons turn to Joe Smith at some point. The sidearm throwing righty has been a huge piece of a Toronto bullpen that has performed well of late. The unit posted a K/9 of 11.10 in May, second league-wide only to the Astros 11.47 mark. Smith led the way in the month, striking out 13.5 per 9 and, more importantly, taking over the role as set-up man as it begins to look like the fire in the Grilli is extinguished.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Smith has never been a big strikeout guy in the past. In fact, the only time he has averaged more than a strikeout an inning was in 2007 when he was a rookie with the New York Mets. Part of the reason that Smith is seeing so much success this year is that he’s starting to lay off his sinker a little and lean on his fourseam fastball more, often going to it with two strikes against left handed hitters. Both the fourseam and his slider are generating a ton of swings and misses. According to Brooks Baseball, hitters are whiffing on 17.92% of fourseam fastballs Smith throws – the highest whiff rate he’s ever had on his “heater” – and 16.8% of sliders, up from 10.53 in ’15 and 10.98 last season. As a result, Smith is racking up the Ks. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">His name is boring and I admittedly forgot it at least ten times during April, but Joe Smith’s work out of the bullpen has been heroic. Thankfully now, there’s a bridge to Osuna in the nin</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> and not two pieces of rope and a few wooden planks like we saw when Jason Grilli got high leverage innings earlier in the year.</span></p>
<h3><b>Devon Travis’ Left Wrist and Jason Leblebijian</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Since coming over to the Blue Jays before the 2015 season, Devon Travis has had nothing but success on the field but plenty of problems staying on it consistently. Another saga of the Travis Injury Chronicles (available for pre-order now!) may have been opened on Sunday against New York when he was hit by a pitch on his left wrist in the seventh inning by flamethrowing righty Luis Severino. Although x-rays came back negative, that just means nothing is broken inside the body. However, it does <em>not</em> mean Travis has full control and range of his left hand via his wrist. As a player with notorious health issues, Travis may end up missing a few days </span><a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/234365112/blue-jays-devon-travis-injures-hand-vs-yanks/"><span style="font-weight: 400">given the way</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> he was talking after the game on Sunday, and could even find himself on the 10-day DL if this persists.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That brings us to Jason Leblebijian, the 26-year-old with the hard-to-pronounce last name who seems to have suddenly figured out the trick to having success as a hitter; the Illinois-native is slashing a cool .308/.380/.578 with the AAA Buffalo Bisons. Leblebijian is a utility infielder and would be the perfect candidate to replace Travis should he need to go on the DL. Even if Ryan Goins were to fill in for Travis in the starting lineup, Leblebijian offers versatility that could see him give off-days to the recently returned left side of the Blue Jays infield, a strategy that could reasonably keep Tulowitzki and Donaldson healthier for a longer period of time, or step through the revolving door in left field. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays have played so well since the beginning of May that their odds of making the playoffs have crept back up to close to forty percent. Losing Travis, who has been one of their hottest hitters during this stretch, could be very detrimental to them. If they want to mitigate the impact of that, calling up Jason Leblebijian would be the right move. Enough with the large bullpens! </span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Joe Smith is Tunneling His Way to a Home Run Problem</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/10/joe-smith-is-tunneling-his-way-to-a-home-run-problem/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Feb 2017 11:44:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8972</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the weekend the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with free agent Joe Smith on a one year, three million dollar contract for the 2017 season. After losing mid-season sensation and setup man extraordinaire Joaquin Benoit to Philadelphia, a right handed void had emerged at the back-end of the bullpen, one which Mark Shapiro [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over the weekend the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with free agent Joe Smith on a one year, three million dollar contract for the 2017 season. After losing mid-season sensation and setup man extraordinaire Joaquin Benoit to Philadelphia, a right handed void had emerged at the back-end of the bullpen, one which Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins hope one of the better sinkerballers of the decade will be able to fill.</p>
<p>It’s more of an optimistic hope than a concrete guarantee because the 2016 season was none too kind to the sidearmer. His velocity and pitch usage patterns more or less remained consistent, but Smith saw his strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate all trend in the wrong direction for the third consecutive season, to the point where his value was below that of a replacement player by some measures. The worsening of the strikeout and walk rates didn’t help, but the greatest cause for this depreciation was a home run per fly ball rate (19.5 percent) that had more than doubled relative to the 2015 (8.5 percent) and 2014 (8.0 percent) seasons.</p>
<p>There could be some foundation behind this sudden and extreme struggle with the long ball. Smith made two separate trips to the disabled list last season; first on June 7<sup>th</sup> with a left hamstring strain, and then again on August 17<sup>th</sup> with … a left hamstring strain. In both instances Smith told the media that the injury had been plaguing him for a while, that the soreness had become too great, and that his delivery had been impacted – intentionally or otherwise – in an effort to protect his ailing leg.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/angels/la-sp-angels-report-20160607-snap-story.html">From the Los Angeles Times</a>, on June 7<sup>th</sup>: <em>“It’s one of those things where once I started getting sore in abnormal areas, that set off some caution flags,” Smith said. “When you start getting sore in other places, it affects your delivery.”</em></p>
<p><a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/196149922/cubs-reliever-joe-smith-goes-on-disabled-list/">From MLB.com</a>, on August 17<sup>th</sup>: <em>&#8220;I&#8217;m not 100 percent and I was trying to go through it, and I&#8217;m obviously not getting the job done out there,&#8221; Smith said. ”I think everybody felt it was in the best interest to get to 100 percent and do what I was traded here to do. It&#8217;s frustrating. I just want to get back and healthy and help this team.&#8221; Smith went on the disabled list in May because of a hamstring injury. &#8220;I started changing my delivery in the lower half and created a bunch of problems, and it took a while to get back,&#8221; he said.</em></p>
<p>The hamstring injuries resulted in Smith making 18 fewer relief appearances than he’d averaged from 2011 through 2015, but despite this considerably smaller sample, the right hander surrendered a career worst eight home runs – seven of which came against his sinker or fourseam fastball. He gave up four dingers on these pitch types in 2015, and just three in 2014. We know his velocity wasn’t suddenly the issue; <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=501925&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=SI&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=mph&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=02/09/2017">Brooks Baseball</a> has his sinker averaging 88.85 miles per hour in 2016, which is actually slightly up from the 88.60 it averaged the year prior. The story is much the same for his fourseam fastball. The sinker had half an inch more run and about an inch less sink, so a sharp decline in movement doesn’t appear to be the culprit either. What about location?</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-1-Smith-FB-Location-MLB-Savant.png"><img src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-1-Smith-FB-Location-MLB-Savant.png" alt="Figure 1 - Smith FB Location (MLB Savant)" width="832" height="505" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8973" /></a></p>
<p>The figure above, composed from <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/">MLB Savant</a> data, shows Smith’s sinker and fourseam fastball location in 2015 compared to 2016. There really doesn’t appear to be anything anomalous; his plan of attack is clearly to target the bottom of the zone, and use the natural arm-side run of his sinker to throw down-and-in to right handed batters, and down-and-away from left handed batters.</p>
<p>In summary: Smith’s sinker velocity is unchanged, the fluctuations in its movement don’t appear significant, and he located it about as well as he always has. It’s the same pitch, and yet the isolated power surrendered by the sinker has increased from .054, to .107, to .193 over the last three years, and the sinker-specific home run per fly ball rate has increased from 6.7 percent, to 16.7 percent, to 43.8 percent (!!!) over the same three years. What else could it be? Is Joe Smith tipping his pitches?</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-2-Vertical-Release-GIF-Brooks.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8974" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-2-Vertical-Release-GIF-Brooks.gif" alt="Figure 2 - Vertical Release GIF (Brooks)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Uh, that seems like a definite possibility. The GIF above shows the average vertical release point for all of Smith’s appearances over the last three seasons. In 2014, the vertical release point for all of his pitch types was basically indistinguishable. In 2015 you start to see a bit more differentiation, and by 2016 there is a consistent three or four inches of separation between the vertical release point of his hard type offerings (black and grey) versus his soft type offerings (red and blue).</p>
<p>You or I might not be able to pick up this sort of seemingly minor difference while standing in the batters’ box watching Joe Smith deliver pitch-after-pitch, but professional hitters are very good at what they do. To better explain just how badly Smith is handicapping himself, we’re going to look at an exciting concept still in its infancy within the public domain: pitch tunnels.</p>
<p>In late January, the statistics team here at Baseball Prospectus <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31030">unveiled a massive and potentially ground-breaking project</a> they had been working on behind the scenes. The entire article is a fascinating and highly recommended read, but for those here for the coles notes, the general concept of pitch tunneling is to measure how similar or dissimilar pitches look out of the hand and as they approach towards the plate, prior to entering their break patterns. Batters have a finite period of time in which to make their swing/take decision, and the longer a pitcher can disguise, for example, his fastball and his slider, the less time the batter has to react once the two pitches begin their drastically different final trajectories. The figure below better explains what exactly the BP team has measured.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-3-BP-Tunnel-Image.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8975" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-3-BP-Tunnel-Image-1024x576.png" alt="Figure 3 - BP Tunnel Image" width="1024" height="576" /></a></p>
<p>In very general terms, pitchers want to minimize the “Release Distance” and “Tunnel Distance” (the latter of which BP describes as approximately 175 milliseconds before contact – the point at which a batter <em>must </em>make a decision), while maximizing the “Plate Distance”. From these three values, BP has also developed a pair of ratios, Break-to-Tunnel, and Release-to-Tunnel.</p>
<p>The first of those two ratios, as explained using BP’s definition, “… shows us the ratio of post-tunnel break to the differential of pitches at the Tunnel Point. The idea here is that having a large ratio between pitches means that the pitches are either tightly clustered at the hitter’s decision-making point or the pitches are separating a lot after the hitter has selected a location to swing at.” Basically, larger is better.</p>
<p>The second of those two ratios, again by means of BP’s definition, “… shows us the ratio of a pitcher’s release differential to their tunnel differential. Pitchers with smaller [ratios] have smaller differentiation between pitches through the tunnel point, making it more difficult for opposing hitters to distinguish them in theory.” In this case, smaller would seem to be better.</p>
<p>The table below details how Joe Smith has fared in these metrics over the last three seasons, and provides more empirical support to the theory that the right hander is making himself far too easy to pick up.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-4-Smith-Tunneling-Table.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8976" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Figure-4-Smith-Tunneling-Table.png" alt="Figure 4 - Smith Tunneling Table" width="413" height="158" /></a></p>
<p>The statistics for which a smaller differential or ratio is desired have been colored in green; in orange are those for which a larger differential or ratio is optimal. The first thing that jumps off the page is that, for each year, each and every metric has universally gotten larger and larger. For things like post-tunnel break and plate differential that’s good, but not only are those gains extremely minor, they don’t come close to compensating for the expansion in his release differential and tunnel differential.</p>
<p>Since 2014, Joe Smith’s average release differential between pitches has increased from 1.3 inches (0.1085 feet) to 2.2 inches (0.1868 feet). It’s noteworthy that this is an average of the release differential for <em>all </em>sequences of his pitches; sinker to slider, sinker to sinker, sinker to fourseam fastball, changeup to slider, changeup to sinker, slider to slider, etc. The tunnel differential has increased as well, so when his pitches are reaching the decision point for the batter, they’re also further separated than in previous years.</p>
<p>I don’t know nearly enough about human physiology to know whether or not a constantly nagging hamstring could have this kind of impact on the vertical release point of his sinker relative to his slider, and in the same vein I don’t yet know nearly enough about pitch tunneling to know whether or not this is a trend that Joe Smith is capable of reversing at this stage of his career, but for a guy who relies on the sinker and slider about 80 percent of the time and struggles to eclipse 90 miles per hour with the sinker like Smith does, providing batters with a heads up on what’s coming both at the release and decision points is most certainly a recipe for failure. If Joe Smith is to again find success and keep balls away from the Rogers Center bleachers, making his sinker and slider look like the same pitch again should be priority number one for pitching coach Peter Walker and bullpen coach Dane Johnson.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Replacements: How Do The New Bullpen Pieces Stack Up</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/06/the-replacements-how-do-the-new-bullpen-pieces-stack-up/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/06/the-replacements-how-do-the-new-bullpen-pieces-stack-up/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2017 12:05:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.P. Howell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joaquin Benoit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8904</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For all the potential frustration from fans about a quiet offseason, the Blue Jays&#8217; braintrust has had some small victories recently when it comes to building the bullpen. Getting J.P. Howell and Joe Smith added some much needed depth to the relief core, supplementing 2016 holdovers Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, and Joe Biagini. The Blue Jays bullpen [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For all the potential <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/24/half-baked-musings-on-a-frustrating-offseason-for-jays-fans">frustration from fans</a> about a quiet offseason, the Blue Jays&#8217; braintrust has had some <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/31/blue-jays-sign-lefty-reliever-j-p-howell/">small</a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/05/blue-jays-sign-right-handed-reliever-joe-smith-to-major-league-deal/">victories</a> recently when it comes to building the bullpen. Getting J.P. Howell and Joe Smith added some much needed depth to the relief core, supplementing 2016 holdovers Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, and Joe Biagini.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays bullpen struggled at the beginning of last year, and there&#8217;s no shortage of reasons why. The Blue Jays started the year with eight relievers, an abundance of high-leverage situations, and two struggling veterans in Drew Storen and Brett Cecil making the opening months quite nail-biting for Jays fans. John Gibbons emerging from the dugout with an arm raised was a source of stress more than relief, save for the mostly-automatic Osuna. The late season acquisitions of Joaquin Benoit and Grilli righted the ship, but with Benoit and Cecil leaving, the team had some holes to fill coming into the offseason.</p>
<p>Did they get the right guys? Let&#8217;s compare the newcomers to the players they&#8217;re replacing, and see how they stack up. To start off, we&#8217;ll do the lefties: Howell does J.P. stack up against Cecil?</p>
<h2>J.P. Howell vs. Brett Cecil</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/howell-cecil.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-8911 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/howell-cecil.png" alt="howell-cecil" width="698" height="75" /></a></p>
<p>By the 2016 numbers, this exchange works reasonably well for the Blue Jays. Howell seems to be a competent replacement for Cecil, and signed for less money and fewer years. One thing to note is they&#8217;re very different pitchers. Cecil was a fastball/curveball pitcher, famous for that sweeping hook that got him strikeouts when it was on. Even in what was perceived by some to be a down season, he still struck out 11 batters per nine innings. Howell is a sinkerballer, relying mostly on a mid 80s sinker and a solid defense to bail him out. With the excellent defensive infield the Jays have, this will likely work out just fine.</p>
<p>Something else Howell doesn&#8217;t have is Cecil&#8217;s history and familiarity with the organization and the fans. Given how some fans saw Cecil&#8217;s performance last season, this might be a bonus rather than a deficit. Howell is likely to be John Gibbons&#8217; first call when a left-hander is needed, regardless of if he does well or not out of the gate.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Smith is ostensibly replacing Benoit, but Benoit only spent part of the season with the Jays. So rather than compare Smith to just Benoit, we will compare him to the aggregate of Benoit and the man he replaced: Drew Storen.</p>
<h2>Joe Smith vs. Joaquin Benoit/Drew Storen</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/smith-storoit.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-8912 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/smith-storoit.png" alt="smith-storoit" width="698" height="75" /></a></p>
<p>This is another one that seems to work out well for the Blue Jays. Though we do not have an aggregate DRA, the other numbers are fairly similar, with a lower K/9 from Smith than our Benoit/Storen hydra. Another thing we note looking at Benoit specifically is he had a much lower HR/9 rate with the Jays than his career would have suggested. Though he threw well with Toronto, trouble was coming, and they may have been wise to let him walk after getting as much as they could from him.</p>
<p>When we look beyond the numbers, there&#8217;s now a running similarity in the pitchers the Jays have brought in: they don&#8217;t throw as hard. Both Benoit and Storen were fastball/slider pitchers, and threw said fastballs in the low 90s. Smith, much like Howell, is a sinkerballer, and might touch 90 on a good day. This could be why both Smith and Howell were available when higher-end relief pitchers who throw much harder were <a href="http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/07/report-yankees-aroldis-chapman-agree-to-five-year-86-million-deal/">getting a lot more money.</a></p>
<p>While the numbers suggest this should work fine for the Jays, there&#8217;s no certainty with relievers. They can fluctuate from year to year, as the Jays learned repeatedly last season. Storen struggled, Cecil scuffled early and righted the ship late, Grilli turned from a cheap trade acquisition into a key setup man, and Benoit became another crucial link in the middle inning chain the Jays constructed as the season went along. The bullpen on opening day was much different from the one that entered the playoffs, and that&#8217;s something to keep in mind if the newcomers blow a game or two early. But everything we can see suggests Smith and Howell were savvy pickups at a low cost, and should save Gibbons some heartache when he tries to match up later in games.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Sign Right-Handed Reliever Joe Smith to Major League Deal</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/05/blue-jays-sign-right-handed-reliever-joe-smith-to-major-league-deal/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/05/blue-jays-sign-right-handed-reliever-joe-smith-to-major-league-deal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2017 06:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cubs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8893</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to Fox Sports&#8217; Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays and reliever Joe Smith have agreed to a one-year deal. Source: #BlueJays in agreement with free-agent reliever Joe Smith on one-year, major-league contract. &#8212; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 5, 2017 While his name is so generic that it almost seems fake, his talent is anything but. From [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal" target="_blank">Fox Sports&#8217; Ken Rosenthal</a>, the Blue Jays and reliever Joe Smith have agreed to a one-year deal.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> in agreement with free-agent reliever Joe Smith on one-year, major-league contract.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/828110041089732608">February 5, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>While his name is so generic that it almost seems fake, his talent is anything but. From a results perspective, Joe Smith was a solid reliever in 2016, ending the season with a 3.46 ERA while splitting time with the Angels and Cubs. That total came despite his giving up 1.38 home runs per nine innings, the 25th worst mark among qualified relievers in 2016. That high homer total was an aberration for Smith, who&#8217;s only had one other season with a HR/9 mark greater than 1.0.</p>
<p>Joe Smith is no fireballer, throwing a fastball that regularly sits below 90 MPH, thus limiting his strikeout potential. However, as <a href="http://www.rantsports.com/fantasy/files/2014/07/Joe-Smith.jpg" target="_blank">a sidearm pitcher</a> Smith has historically been able to keep the ball out of the air and he holds a career 56.2 % groundball rate. Between 2011 and 2015, his deceptive and wipeout slider combined for quite good results. Over that time span, Smith held a a 2.51 ERA, which was 25th among qualified relievers and in a similar range with Jonathan Papelbon and Tony Watson. He also handled left-handed batters very well, which is something of a surprise for a low slot guy. Since 2011, they have hit a measly .221/.308/.337, though that is higher in the last two years.</p>
<p>With that said, there are reasons why Smith didn&#8217;t sign until this point in the offseason and only got one year. Namely, the poor results described above in addition to a dip in velocity and some injury troubles. He missed 39 games due to hamstring problems last year, after missing ten the year before with an ankle injury.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Smith adds to a Blue Jays bullpen that is quietly becoming incredibly deep. In addition to Roberto Osuna and Jason Grilli at the back end of the bullpen, the Jays now have three middle relief options with some upside in Smith, J.P. Howell, and Joe Biagini. Plus, the team has accumulated a hefty list of high-strikeout relievers in the minors with Dominic Leone, Danny Barnes, and Chris Smith. Each of those three relievers posted 2016 seasons with 10+ K/9 in the minors.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether or not the Blue Jays are done making moves for the offseason, but at the very least they&#8217;ve continued to fill out the roster with adequate depth. That strategy is somewhat of a departure from the previous regime&#8217;s strategy of &#8220;throw in whomever you&#8217;ve already got and hope for the best.&#8221;</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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