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	<title>Toronto &#187; Jesse Chavez</title>
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		<title>The 9 Biggest Bullpen Blowups in Jays History</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/24/the-9-biggest-bullpen-blowups-in-jays-history/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Anthopoulos]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ross atkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergio Santos]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 trade deadline didn&#8217;t come close to matching the euphoric highs of the 2015 deadline. You can&#8217;t trump David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. Nobody was asking first-year GM Ross Atkins to shock the world, and most Jays fans were impressed with the shrewd, but impactful acquisitions he did make. And the depth provided by Melvin Upton [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 trade deadline didn&#8217;t come close to matching the euphoric highs of the 2015 deadline. You can&#8217;t trump David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. Nobody was asking first-year GM Ross Atkins to shock the world, and most Jays fans were impressed with the shrewd, but impactful acquisitions he did make. And the depth provided by Melvin Upton Jr. and Francisco Liriano has already proved invaluable with all the outfield injuries and Sanchez&#8217; mini-vacation to Florida.</p>
<p>But if you&#8217;ve been following this team since the Ricciardi days, then perhaps the decisions to ship Jesse Chavez and Drew Storen off in exchange for <em>other relievers</em> was more stunning than last year&#8217;s fireworks. Toronto had never shelled out millions on a rental ace at the deadline, but it&#8217;s also not the Blue Jay way to throw out their bullpen garbage and roll the dice with fresh arms.</p>
<p>The last time I can remember something like this happening was when Anthopoulos traded away the struggling Francisco Cordero (along with Ben Francisco and a minor league package highlighted by our dear friend Joe Musgrove) to Houston in exchange for J.A. Happ and two relievers.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not like Scott Feldman was a clear upgrade over Chavez (as we <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/02/new-blue-jay-feldman-tagged-for-loss-against-former-team">found out</a> the very same day), but it&#8217;s at least a shake-up, a change of scenery, a middle finger to inertia. Standing pat with a struggling bullpen <em>can</em> be perceived as a show of confidence in your guys, but when you stand pat year after year it starts to reek of complacency.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying that Atkins revolutionized the bullpen. Being in a position to land Andrew Miller would&#8217;ve been nice, or Jeremy Jeffress. But Toronto&#8217;s relievers have accumulated the 1.5 WARP as a group since the break, trailing only the Yankees and Rangers by that metric. The Cleveland series may have taken some winds out of some sails, but while this bullpen is more or less the same as it was talent-wise, it <em>feels</em> different somehow &#8211; more energized, dependable.</p>
<p>So in honour of Atkins&#8217; refusal to go gently into that good night, I&#8217;ve decided to open up the vault and look back at some of the team&#8217;s worst bullpen moments over the past unkind decade. You&#8217;re probably already cycling through some names in your head: Jon Rauch, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco. Maybe you&#8217;ve got a better memory: Tomo Ohka, Brian Tallet, Jesse Litsch. I&#8217;m really sorry if I made you think even for a second today about <a href="http://torontolife.com/city/toronto-sports/blue-jays-jo-jo-reyes-almost-sets-a-new-record-for-futility/">Jo-Jo Reyes</a>.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve already rambled too long, so I&#8217;ll keep the methodology explanation simple. I used the Baseball Reference Play Index to search for all the appearances under 1.0 IP by a Toronto reliever since 1977 and sorted the list by <a href="//www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2014-09-05&amp;team=Red Sox&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2014&quot;&gt;FanGraphs&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;">Wins Probability Added (WPA)</a>. WPA has nothing to do with how good a pitcher is, it&#8217;s entirely based on context &#8211; this isn&#8217;t a ranking of the worst Blue Jays relievers. Here&#8217;s the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/game_finder.cgi?type=p#gotresults&amp;as=result_pitcher&amp;offset=0&amp;match=basic&amp;suffix=&amp;min_year_game=1977&amp;max_year_game=2016&amp;series=any&amp;series_game=any&amp;playoffs=&amp;WL=any&amp;game_length=any&amp;team_id=TOR&amp;team_lg=&amp;opp_id=&amp;opp_lg=&amp;use_dh=&amp;throws=any&amp;HV=any&amp;game_site=&amp;temperature_min=0&amp;temperature_max=120&amp;wind_speed_min=0&amp;wind_speed_max=90&amp;wind_direction_tolf=1&amp;wind_direction_tocf=1&amp;wind_direction_torf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromlf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromcf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromrf=1&amp;wind_direction_ltor=1&amp;wind_direction_rtol=1&amp;wind_direction_unknown=1&amp;precipitation_unknown=1&amp;precipitation_none=1&amp;precipitation_drizzle=1&amp;precipitation_showers=1&amp;precipitation_rain=1&amp;precipitation_snow=1&amp;sky_unknown=1&amp;sky_sunny=1&amp;sky_cloudy=1&amp;sky_overcast=1&amp;sky_night=1&amp;sky_dome=1&amp;Role=noGS&amp;DEC=any&amp;number_matched=1&amp;orderby=wpa_def&amp;order_by_asc=1&amp;c1criteria=IPouts&amp;c1gtlt=lt&amp;c1val=1&amp;c2criteria=&amp;c2gtlt=eq&amp;c2val=0&amp;c3criteria=&amp;c3gtlt=eq&amp;c3val=0&amp;c4criteria=&amp;c4gtlt=eq&amp;c4val=0&amp;c5criteria=&amp;c5gtlt=eq&amp;c5val=1.0&amp;c6criteria=&amp;location=pob&amp;locationMatch=is&amp;pob=&amp;pod=&amp;pcanada=&amp;pusa=&amp;firstgames=&amp;startgames=&amp;lastgames=&amp;firstteamgames=&amp;startteamgames=&amp;lastteamgames=&amp;ajax=1&amp;submitter=1&amp;z=1&amp;z=1">full list</a> if you&#8217;re interested.</p>
<h4><strong>9. -0.913 WPA: Casey Janssen (September 5, 2014)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2014-09-05&amp;team=Red Sox&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>After the Red Sox rallied for three runs in the bottom of the 8th against Aaron Loup to send the game to extras, Dioner Navarro singled in Marcus Stroman &#8211; who was pinch running for Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; and the Jays retook the lead with a two-run 10th. Boston had a 9.4% Win Expectancy when closer Casey Janssen entered the bottom of the 10th. Four straight singles and a sac-fly later and Boston&#8217;s Win Expectancy was up to 71% with men on first and second.</p>
<p>With the score knotted at 8-8, David Ortiz grounded sharply to second baseman Steve Tolleson, who had come on as a defensive replacement for Munenori Kawasaki. Instead of starting an inning-ending double play, Tolleson&#8217;s throw sailed past second base and set the stage for Yoenis Cespedes&#8217; walk-off single.</p>
<h4><strong>8. -0.917 WPA: Kevin Gregg (May 20, 2010)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2010-05-20&amp;team=Mariners&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Kevin Gregg somehow saved 37 games for Toronto during a 2010 season in which the starting five featured Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Rzepczynski. He was a pretty good pitcher by 2010 Jays standards, but it&#8217;s funny how a few terrible appearances colour our memory of a player.</p>
<p>The Mariners entered the bottom of the 9th down two runs with a Win Expectancy of 8%, and quickly got within a run on two singles and two walks. Gregg then recorded his only out of the inning on a sac-fly that tied things up before allowing a walk-off single to Ken Griffey Jr.</p>
<h4><strong>7. -0.923 WPA: Sergio Santos (May 2, 2014)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2014-05-02&amp;team=Pirates&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>What happened with Santos in 2014 reminds me a lot of Storen this year. Electric stuff, previous success&#8230; cringe-worthy trainwreck. After serving up a game-tying two-run jack to Pedro Alvarez which brought Pittsburgh Win Expectancy from 9% to 57%, Santos got a quick fly out before Starling Marte crushed a 2-1 offering for a walk-off win. It was Santos third blown save in a little over a month as the Jays closer.</p>
<h4><strong>6. -0.946 WPA: Mike Timlin (July 15, 1996)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1996-07-15&amp;team=Orioles&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The O&#8217;s needed four runs in the bottom of the 9th to win this one. They got five. Cal Ripken Jr. led things off by reaching on a fielding error, and two batters later Bobby Bonilla tied things up with a three-run shot. Timlin struck out the next batter, and Manager Cito Gaston left him in to close out the bottom of the lineup.</p>
<p>Didn&#8217;t quite work out that way. Pinch-hitter Luis Polonia bunted on the first pitch and narrowly beat out the throw, setting the stage for a walk-off homer by catcher Chris Hoiles.</p>
<h4><strong>5. -0.947 WPA: Darren Hall (June 4, 1995)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1995-06-04&amp;team=Indians&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The high-powered Jays offence scored seven runs in the 1st inning of this game, but an uncharacteristically terrible start from David Cone made it an 8-6 game heading into the 9th. Still, the Indians had just a 5% Win Expectancy after Carlos Baerga failed to bunt his way on base to lead things off. A couple of singles and an RBI groundout by Jim Thome got Cleveland to within a run, but their Win Expectancy was still just at 11%.</p>
<p>Down to their last out, first baseman Paul Sorrento stepped up to the plate and belted the first pitch he saw from Hall into the seats to give the Indians the win. One swing, -0.890 WPA. The craziest thing is that Hall only threw eight pitches in the appearance.</p>
<h4><strong>4. -0.950 WPA: Casey Janssen (September 10, 2007)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2007-09-10&amp;team=Tigers&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Almost exactly a year after sending Detroit to the World Series with a walk-off home run against the A&#8217;s in Game 6 of the ALCS, Magglio Ordonez came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the 9th and his team down a run in a game with important Wild Card implications.</p>
<p>Roy Halladay was toying with the Tigers all night, and after getting a quick ground ball double play to start the 9th it looked like Doc was headed for another complete game. Detroit had a 1% Win Expectancy when Sean Casey singled, and after another single Gibby pulled Halladay for Janssen.</p>
<p>As a general rule, even if Halladay has thrown 123 pitches, you don&#8217;t pull him for anyone with one out left. Janssen proceeded to load the bases before throwing an 0-0 meatball that Ordonez slapped into right for a two-run walk-off single.</p>
<h4><strong>3. -0.954 WPA: Jeremy Accardo (September 8, 2007)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2007-09-08&amp;team=Devil Rays&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>Just <em>two days</em> before the Ordonez walk-off, a skinny center fielder named B.J. Upton came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the 9th and his team down a run in a game that didn&#8217;t matter at all for either team.</p>
<p>This one had played out a lot like the Ordonez game: Jays starter A.J. Burnett cruised through eight innings before handing the ball over to Accardo to wrap things up. An error by Troy Glaus opened the door for a two-run shot by Delmon Young, but Accardo recovered with a quick grounder for out number two and the Rays Win Expectancy was back down to 5%. Accardo would proceed to walk Jonny Gomes before serving up a first pitch walk-off homer to Upton.</p>
<h4><strong>2. -0.959 WPA: Dennis Lamp (August 16, 1984)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1984-08-16&amp;team=Indians&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>What do Pat Tabler, Brook Jacoby, and Joe Carter have in common? They were all on the 1984 Cleveland Indians. Really makes you think!</p>
<p>Looking to close out a quality start from Dave Stieb, Lamp allowed four straight base runners to open the 9th. With the bases loaded, Lamp briefly recovered to get two quick outs before giving up a walk-off two-run double to DH Andre Thornton.</p>
<h4><strong>1. -0.960 WPA: Cliff Politte (June 7, 2003)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2003-06-07&amp;team=Reds&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The main reason why Politte takes the top spot is that WPA is an aggregated stat, and for some reason he was allowed to throw 32 pitches in this outing. Even after allowing a game-tying three-run homer to Jason LaRue, Jays Manager Carlos Tosca didn&#8217;t think to yank him. Maybe the <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/06/phillies-bullpen-phone-off-the-hook-francoeur">bullpen phone was broken</a> that night.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Mariners 14, Blue Jays 5; Dickey Disappoints While Cruz Scores Touchdown</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/23/recap-mariners-14-blue-jays-5-dickey-disappoints-while-cruz-scores-touchdown/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/23/recap-mariners-14-blue-jays-5-dickey-disappoints-while-cruz-scores-touchdown/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jul 2016 20:37:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seattle Mariners]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4793</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some days you just don&#8217;t have it. This certainly qualifies as one of those, as the Blue Jays were dominated by the Mariners on Saturday afternoon. The pitching was poor and the offense remained hidden after mustering up only four hits last night. Add it all up and it&#8217;s one to forget in the form [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some days you just don&#8217;t have it. This certainly qualifies as one of those, as the Blue Jays were dominated by the Mariners on Saturday afternoon. The pitching was poor and the offense remained hidden after mustering up only four hits last night. Add it all up and it&#8217;s one to forget in the form of a listless 14-5 defeat.</p>
<p>Toronto struck first when Kevin Pillar scored on a Josh Thole sacrifice fly in the second inning but things unraveled rather quickly thereafter. R.A. Dickey struggled mightily in what was the shortest outing of his Blue Jay career.</p>
<p>Gifted a lead, Dickey surrendered an infield single and hit two batters before giving up a grand slam to Nelson Cruz in the top of the 3rd. He came back out looking to reverse his fortunes in the fourth but loaded the bases, gave up another run on another infield hit and departed the game without recording an out in the 4th. Franklin Morales limited the damage and got out of the inning after another run scored, sending the Blue Jays into the bottom of the 4th trailing 6-1. Dickey&#8217;s final line reads 3.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K on 72 pitches.</p>
<p>Jesse Chavez came on in the 6th and had a truly putrid day. He surrendered five consecutive hits before getting a double play off the bat of Cruz with the bases loaded. It looked like that would be the end of the scoring for the inning until Kyle Seager launched a two run homer to left center, making the score 11-1. Chavez&#8217;s final line: 0.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER. Not good.</p>
<p>Drew Storen entered in the 8th and promptly gave up a walk, a ground rule double and a three run home run to Cruz. Cruz was a one man wrecking crew with the bat, notching seven RBI on the day. One inning pitched and three more earned runs off Storen, who just can&#8217;t seem to get going this season.</p>
<p>Michael Saunders homered to lead off the 6th and connected again in the 8th but was basically alone in the offensive attack. Justin Smoak hit a two run homer in the 8th to go with Saunders&#8217; solo shot but it was far too little and way too late for the Jays. The offense was baffled by Hisashi Iwakuma, who picked up his fif2th straight win. He worked 6.0 innings and gave up just four hits and two runs. The rest of the runs were scored off mop up man and former Blue Jay farmhand Wade LeBlanc.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s top play came early when Nelson Cruz hit his 9th career grand slam in the top of the 3rd inning. A monster mash into the center field seats, the big swing turned a one run deficit into a three run lead and served as a sign of things to come for the Mariners while accounting for a .283 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play also came early when R.A. Dickey coaxed a double play ball out of Leonys Martin in the top of the 2nd. With nobody out and runners on first and second, the twin killing helped Dickey escape unscathed. At least for one inning. The GIDP earned a -.108 WPA.</p>
<h3>Hey It&#8217;s Franklin, Comin&#8217; Over to Play</h3>
<p>Franklin Morales returned to the Blue Jays after being activated from his rehab assignment yesterday. The team has been desperate for relief help and would love if Morales can become an effective second lefty out of the bullpen. He picked up 2.0 innings of work on just 17 pitches today, entering with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 4th and only allowing one inherited runner to score on a double play. He only gave up one hit in the top of the 5th in an encouraging reintroduction.</p>
<p>Another injured Blue Jay returned to the lineup today as Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s nagging Achilles was apparently no issue this afternoon. He returned to the leadoff spot and played the full day in right field so he should be fine going forward, though he&#8217;s been prone to minor re-aggravation so it&#8217;s something the team will keep an eye on.</p>
<h3>Smashing Saunders</h3>
<p>While most of the offense slept through today&#8217;s game, Michael Saunders hit his second and third dingers over the past two days. Both to left field, they were his 18th and 19th home runs of the season as the All Star continues to rake. He&#8217;s already tied his career high in homers in what&#8217;s been a wonderful season.</p>
<p>Perhaps the only other batting bright spot is Josh Donaldson&#8217;s run, as the reigning MVP has now reached base in 26 consecutive games.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look to take the final game of the series tomorrow afternoon on Kevin Pillar bobblehead day. They&#8217;ll also see if there are any lingering effects from the line drive that hit JA Happ on his pitching arm in his previous start. Happ (12-3, 3.43 ERA) will be opposing left-hander Wade Miley (6-7, 5.36 ERA) with first pitch set for 1:07 ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Evaluating Jesse Chavez With Something New</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/26/evaluating-jesse-chavez-with-something-new/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/26/evaluating-jesse-chavez-with-something-new/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 May 2016 13:18:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2907</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A lot of bandwidth has been used on this site talking about the Jays&#8217; bullpen struggles this season. Recent articles have found some good amidst the Jays&#8217; relief core, which has been somewhere between a combustible gas can and a roaring tire fire so far this season. Save for Roberto Osuna, who remains awesome. Somewhere between the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A lot of bandwidth has been used on this site talking about the Jays&#8217; bullpen struggles this season. <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/20/how-biagini-is-bottling-up-hitters/">Recent</a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/gavin-floyd-the-quasi-drew-storen/">articles</a> have found some good amidst the Jays&#8217; relief core, which has been somewhere between a combustible gas can and a roaring tire fire so far this season. Save for Roberto Osuna, who remains awesome.</p>
<p>Somewhere between the complete domination of Osuna and the hopeless despair of Drew Storen is Jesse Chavez. Acquired in a controversial trade for Liam Hendriks, Chavez was expected to be a swingman coming into the season, throwing multiple innings and occasionally spot starting. His usage so far has been, really, as a typical middle reliever: his longest outing is two innings flat, and he&#8217;s only thrown more than 30 pitches in an outing once. Then, when the Jays needed a spot starter, they called up Drew Hutchison, rather than throwing Chavez or Gavin Floyd into the mix, suggesting that they want to continue use him solely as a reliever.</p>
<p>We could look at Chavez&#8217;s numbers. We could look at an increased K/9 rate since moving to the bullpen, an acceptable ERA of 3.96, a DRA of 4.07, and conclude he&#8217;s adequate. Or we could see the horrifying 62% of inherited runners scored, the fact that he&#8217;s allowed nine hits and four walks in his last five outings, and conclude he&#8217;s unreliable. We could shout &#8220;small sample size for a reliever&#8221; into the breach, throw our hands in the air, and say &#8220;who knows&#8221;? Or we could look at heat maps and pitch usage, really dig down into why Chavez has been good or bad. But really, who has time for that?</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve worked up a new metric that will make evaluating pitchers much easier. You won&#8217;t need a slide rule or an abacus, or whatever the math majors are using these days to figure it out. All you need to do is watch the game.</p>
<p>Presenting: <strong>TATER</strong>. Yeah, it&#8217;s an acronym. But unlike BIPs and DIPs and all those weird made-up words, TATER is easy to understand. It&#8217;s shorthand for a home run. Here&#8217;s the rundown.</p>
<p><strong>T</strong>otal</p>
<p><strong>A</strong>nalysis</p>
<p><strong>T</strong>hrough</p>
<p><strong>E</strong>very</p>
<p>home<strong>R</strong></p>
<p>What we do, is we look at each home run a pitcher gives up (WATCHING THE GAME), and assign it a score of 1-5 based on several categories: how far it went, where it was hit, who hit it, what the situation was, whether they celebrated, and finally, how thoroughly the pitcher got owned. So, if Jose Bautista launches a moonshot off Darren O&#8217;Day and gives the Jays the lead, that&#8217;s a 5, easy. You just know that he&#8217;s staring that down and flipping the bat all the way to Mississauga. If it&#8217;s Josh Donaldson scraping the wall in Yankee Stadium off Chasen Shreve in a blowout, that&#8217;s a 1, because that&#8217;s off the wall everywhere else, and he&#8217;s just padding his stats at that point.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t believe I&#8217;m exaggerating when I say that TATER, and the metrics that will follow it (TATERmetrics) could revolutionize the industry. Imagine: being able to watch the game without a calculator, wondering about line drive rates, or wondering if your homemade up-to-the-minute DRA sign in right field is correct. You just wait for the home runs. Who doesn&#8217;t like home runs? Let&#8217;s see TATER applied to Mr. Chavez, and what it can tell us.</p>
<h3>Brock Holt</h3>
<p><iframe width="600" height="338" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/q-oZWNRohJo?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>The Time and Place:</strong> April 8, 2016, Rogers Centre</p>
<p><strong>The Hitter:</strong> Brock Holt</p>
<p><strong>The Situation:</strong> 6th inning, Jays leading 7-2, bases loaded, 1 out, 0-1 count</p>
<p><strong>TATER Score: </strong>A wall-scraper just by the foul pole in the Rogers Centre, noted bandbox. Wow, gold star for you, Brock. It was a line drive, by a guy who&#8217;s generously listed at 5&#8217;10&#8221; and 180. Though it was a grand slam that made the game competitive, so a huuuuuge moment for the Red Sox and the worst case scenario for Chavez in that situation. Short of his arm flying clean off his body after the pitch, anyway. For our inaugural TATER score, Chavez gets a 2, because it wouldn&#8217;t have been a home run in most parks. It would have scored a bunch of runs anyway because Bautista would have taken ten minutes to get to that ball, and five more to throw it back into the infield with his busted shoulder.</p>
<h3> Chris Coglan</h3>
<p><iframe width="600" height="338" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DOLnWCAyNx8?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>The Time and Place:</strong> April 24, 2016, Rogers Centre</p>
<p><strong>The Hitter:</strong> Chris Coghlan</p>
<p><strong>The Situation:</strong> 7th inning, Jays leading 6-2, bases empty, 0 out, 0-1 count</p>
<p><strong>TATER score: </strong>There&#8217;s a lot to unpack here. Four run game, nobody on, so it wasn&#8217;t an important situation for Chavez. The home run ended up not mattering, but it might have if the bullpen continued leaking hits (which it didn&#8217;t on this night). On the other hand, Coghlan didn&#8217;t even get all of it, and it still went out easily. It&#8217;s not clear from the clip, but he might even have flipped the bat, which would have been a bold move with your team down by 4 runs. I get why, though. He was struggling, he wanted to enjoy it. Additionally, Coghlan was hitting .180 before this drive. You can&#8217;t give up no-doubt home runs to .180 hitters. Chavez gets a TATER score of 3 for this.</p>
<h3>Ian Desmond</h3>
<p><iframe width="600" height="338" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TGrLDJokE0k?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>The Time and Place:</strong> May 15, 2016, Globe Life Park</p>
<p><strong>The Hitter:</strong> Ian Desmond</p>
<p><strong>The Situation:</strong> 7th inning, Jays leading 6-4, two runners on, 2 out, 1-2 count</p>
<p><strong>TATER score: </strong>Oh boy. Where to begin. 1-2 count, Jays clinging perilously onto a two run lead. Chavez hangs a breaking ball, and Desmond absolutely blasts it. Saunders does a courtesy jog over to the high wall in left field, but he knows what&#8217;s up. It was gone from the moment the bat hit the ball, and everyone in the park knew it. Desmond tries his hand at flipping the bat (which, remarkably, didn&#8217;t lead the Jays to hire a hitman or some other stupidity), and discovers he&#8217;s not good at it, but that&#8217;s okay. We can&#8217;t all be Jose Bautista. The gravity of the situation, the authority that Desmond hit the ball with, and the sheer stupidity of giving a batter anything to hit on a 1-2 count with 2 outs makes this an easy 5 for Chavez.</p>
<h3> Desmond Jennings</h3>
<p><iframe width="600" height="338" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Nwptf20y5IA?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p><strong>The Time and Place:</strong> May 16, 2016, Rogers Centre</p>
<p><strong>The Hitter:</strong> Desmond Jennings</p>
<p><strong>The Situation:</strong> 9th inning, Jays trailing 12-2, bases empty, 0 out, 3-2 count</p>
<p><strong>TATER score: </strong>This is another one that&#8217;s going to be hard to evaluate. It&#8217;s the mother of all blowout situations: 9th inning, the Jays already down a touchdown and a field goal, and Chavez was called in to mop up an awful game for the boys in blue. One day after giving up a deep drive to Ian Desmond, they hoped he could get some work in, scrub the memory of that Rangers game away. That didn&#8217;t really happen, as Jennings absolutely destroyed a 3-2 pitch down the line in left. Another courtesy jog from Saunders, but he&#8217;s mostly staying loose at this point. Jennings admired it for a moment (which was fine, he did get all of it), and just ran around the bases. It was a long home run, but didn&#8217;t really matter. That&#8217;s a 2.</p>
<h3>TATERclusion</h3>
<p>Based on only these four home runs, it&#8217;s hard to draw any conclusions on Jesse Chavez, who comes away with an average TATER score of 3 (and an odd weakness to guys named Desmond). But that&#8217;s what the numbers told us anyway, right? I&#8217;m confident that with continued application to other pitchers of the Jays&#8217; staff, and refinement of the overall system, TATERmetrics could change the way we look at pitchers forever. If a pitcher has a high TATER score, it means he&#8217;s continually given up long home runs in big situations, and he&#8217;s bad. If he has a low TATER score, he doesn&#8217;t give up a lot of home runs, and he&#8217;s good. It&#8217;s an entirely foolproof system that you don&#8217;t need a page full of equations to figure out. You just need your eyes, an appreciation for the long ball, and an understanding of game situations.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How the Blue Jays Can Emulate the Rays Pitching Success</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/21/how-the-blue-jays-can-emulate-the-rays-pitching-success/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Mar 2016 10:30:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=528</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 season opens for the Blue Jays in Tampa Bay against the Rays, and it’s an interesting coincidence, at least in the purview of this article, given the way that the new Toronto front office appears to be constructing its pitching staff. It’s certainly not a bad strategy to mimic; despite getting just 24 total [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 season opens for the Blue Jays in Tampa Bay against the Rays, and it’s an interesting coincidence, at least in the purview of this article, given the way that the new Toronto front office appears to be constructing its pitching staff. It’s certainly not a bad strategy to mimic; despite getting just 24 total starts from Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, and Matt Moore, the Rays pitching staff allowed the fourth fewest runs in the American League in 2015. It wasn&#8217;t all defense either, as their team ERA and FIP of 3.74 and 3.91 were also fourth best in the American League. With the rotation vulnerable and the depth exposed, the Rays did exactly what any smart, analytical organization would do: <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/tampa-bay-rays-kevin-cash-pitching-change-limit-three-times-through-order-051415">they overextended their bullpen</a>. Wait, what? The underlying thought is that the Rays were cognizant of the times through the order penalty, and were ensuring that the opposition didn’t take advantage of their fatiguing depth starters who had been thrust into the spotlight.</p>
<h3>What is the times through the order penalty (TTOP)?</h3>
<p>While not actually a penalty, per se, the TTOP shows that as a pitcher faces a batter more times in a game, their performance gets worse – or from an alternative perspective, the batter’s performance improves. In late 2014, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-third-time-through-the-lineup-is-a-charm/">Brett Talley of Fangraphs</a> identified a list of candidates for potential regression based upon an unsustainable level of success as they faced batters for a third time. In the article, he laid down a nifty little table which I’m going to borrow for this piece.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-12.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-531" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-12.png" alt="Table 1" width="430" height="64" /></a></p>
<p>In short, what the above table shows is that in the first time through the order, the pitcher has a notable advantage over the batters. However, the second time through is worse, but only to the point of being a neutral matchup. Meanwhile, the third time through is nothing short of a nightmare for a starting pitcher. In the third time through the lineup, batters have an OPS that is six percent higher than their season mark, and 11 percent better than their first time through. The reasoning behind this relationship has been studied extensively, but from what I can gather, a single cause cannot be drawn out from the mess of variables. Instead, it’s likely that some combination of the pitcher tiring and the batter making adjustments from previous plate appearances contribute to the discrepancy. Still, while the origin of the effect may still be shrouded in mystery, the impact of the effect is beyond question.</p>
<p>Much of the legwork for the TTOP was done by Mitchel Lichtman when, in November 2013, he wrote a pair of articles looking at the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22156">TTOP phenomenon under the microscope</a>. At the end of the first article, Lichtman came to a number of interesting conclusions. Though he used wOBA instead of OPS to evaluate, his observations meshed with the above table, where the pitcher is better than usual the first time through, and then gets progressively worse the longer he remains in the game. He also observed that a pitcher’s career times through the order patterns are have almost no predictive value. Finally, while the wOBA values may be slightly different, both good and bad pitchers suffer from the TTOP at around the same magnitude.</p>
<p>Following the initial article, Lichtman received a lot of feedback from commenters asking how the TTOP effect may vary depending upon the <em>type </em>of starting pitcher; with specific questions around fastball usage and arsenal diversity. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22235">Once again, his observations were very interesting</a>.</p>
<p>Starting pitchers who rely almost entirely on fastballs (&gt;75 percent) had the most immediate and devastating TTOP impact, while starting pitchers who threw less than 50 perfect fastballs had the slowest and shallowest decline as a result of the TTOP. His analysis showed that batters facing fastball heavy starters improved their wOBA by 47 points the third time through, whereas batters facing the fastball light starters improved their wOBA by just 18 points over the same period. This conclusion passes the logic test, as one would reasonably expect batters to improve at a more rapid pace when their focus can be narrowed to a single pitch.</p>
<p>After focusing specifically on fastball usage, Lichtman turned to arsenal diversity, splitting pitchers into groups based upon the number of different pitches thrown more than 10 percent of the time. As expected, the overall trend was similar to that observed with fastball usage, where the starting pitchers who threw just one pitch more than 10 percent of the time had the largest decline the third time through, at 36 points of wOBA. Starters who feature two, three, and four pitches saw batters improve by 34, 28, and 24 points of wOBA, respectively, over the same interval. Perhaps the most interesting point from this arsenal diversity analysis was the timing of the aforementioned declines. The two, three, and four pitch starters were steadily worse each time through, whereas the one pitch starter was considerably worse the second time through, but saw only a minor decline in performance after that.</p>
<h3>How does the times through the order penalty apply to the 2016 rotation?</h3>
<p>Looking first at the fastball usage trend, only Aaron Sanchez (76.71 percent) eclipses the 75 percent upper threshold identified by Lichtman. Note that this usage rate is exclusively from his 11 starts in 2015; his sinker/ four seam fastball usage rate as a reliever was 84.84 percent. This suggests that Sanchez could be the most susceptible to the TTOP – more so than any other rotation candidate – and should be watched the closest as he turns a lineup over for a second or third time. For a pitcher so heavily reliant on the fastball, if the opposition starts to pick it up or he loses command and has nowhere else to turn, he could get cratered in a hurry.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ (67.17 percent) and Drew Hutchison (65.24 percent) are the most susceptible among the middle tier (between 50 and 75 percent fastballs). Happ is likely more so affected than Hutchison because his next most frequently thrown pitch is another fastball-esque offering (cutter). Conversely, Marco Estrada (52.13 percent), Gavin Floyd (52.09 percent), and Marcus Stroman (50.84 percent) are arguably the least susceptible to the TTOP of the middle tier thanks to their near-50 percent fastball reliance. Jesse Chavez is on the low end of the spectrum, as his sinker and four seam fastball usage totaled just 35.76 percent; firmly establishing the right hander in the safest group according to Lichtman’s conclusions. Batters facing Chavez-type pitchers were worse than their season average in <em>both </em>their first <em>and </em>second time through. While Sanchez-types lose 47 points in wOBA against their third time through, Chavez-types lose just 18 points – a considerable improvement. This isn’t to say that Chavez has an endless leash, but if he’s cruising through the lineup’s second trip, Gibby probably doesn’t need to have his finger hovering over the panic button in preparation for the third.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-21.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-532" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-21.png" alt="Table 2" width="843" height="267" /></a></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman stands as a man among boys under the arsenal diversity header. Even when his sinker and four seam fastball are summed into one offering, he <em>still </em>features five different pitches more than 10 percent of the time. Lichtman’s analysis didn’t expand the study to starters with five pitches, but those who throw four pitchers suffered the TTOP at the slowest rate; losing 20 points of wOBA against their third time through, whereas those who threw three, two, and one pitch(es) at least 10 percent of the time lost 22, 28, and 31 points. We saw, both in September and into the postseason, that because of his deep arsenal, Stroman can plan for lineups in entirely different ways. On September 12th against the Yankees, he went 51 percent fastballs, 22 percent curveballs, and 14 percent cutters. When Stroman faced the same lineup 11 days later, his fastball usage dropped to 37 percent, his curveball usage dropped to 3 percent, and he instead attacked with sliders (27 percent) and changeups (23 percent). Unpredictability is an asset, but the fact that Marcus Stroman can be unpredictable with five different plus pitches is what makes him a legitimate ace in the making. That&#8217;s also exactly why you should expect to see him pitch into the seventh and eighth innings regularly in 2016. At 5-foot-9, Stro is poised to be one of baseball&#8217;s strongest workhorses.</p>
<p>Once again Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ find themselves potentially wielding the short straws, but interestingly, despite their similarities, the general narrative is that they need to move in divergent directions to be successful. Sanchez is all fastballs (76.71 percent) and curveballs (14.29 percent), and most agree that he needs to continue to advance his breaking ball while also developing a reliable third pitch to shake the reliever tag. On the other hand, Happ experienced much of his recent success by basically abandoning his breaking and off-speed pitches and going hard-hard-hard with everything, which the internet has lauded and encouraged. The two theories appear to agree that among the <em>traditional </em>starting pitcher candidates on the Blue Jays roster, if Gibby’s going to go with the quick hook before a starter faces his 19th batter, it will likely be to grab Sanchez or Happ.</p>
<h3>Will the Jays consider the times through the order penalty?</h3>
<p><em>Traditional </em>was used purposefully in the previous paragraph, as the embers of this article were first sparked back in October when John Gibbons went to retrieve R.A. Dickey in the fifth inning of a game the Blue Jays were ahead 7-1. Media and fans alike were stunned, wondering (rather loudly, and to anyone who would listen) how you could pull a guy one out away from qualifying for his first postseason win, in a six run game no less. The bottom line is that Dickey faced nineteen batters, and 17-18-19 went fly out to centerfield, single to centerfield, line out to centerfield on a full count. The Rangers were on the knuckleball, and Gibbers had no interest in letting Shin-Soo Choo – who was already 2-for-2 when he strode to the plate – see it a third time.</p>
<p>Game four of the ALDS obviously means more than say, game 45 in May, so whether or not Gibbons continues to manage so aggressively with any starter is still yet to be determined. But if the organization’s offseason has been any indication, the front office is at least leaving the door open for the possibility. In order for such a philosophy to ascend from concept to reality, the roster needs to have a stable of pitchers capable of throwing multiple innings in relief. While none resulted in signings, the Blue Jays were reportedly in active pursuit of Craig Stammen, Yusmero Petit, and Joe Blanton in hopes of augmenting their bullpen, all of whom perfectly fit that criteria.</p>
<p>The seven spots in the Opening Day bullpen are still largely in flux behind the big three of Drew Storen, Brett Cecil, and Roberto Osuna. Storen and Cecil. As Table 3 below shows, in 2015, Storen and Cecil averaged 3.9 and 3.4 batters faced per appearance respectively. While I expect Osuna to be right there with Cecil holding on to small leads in the late innings, I suspect his utilization pattern will be quite different from the other two. He threw 70 innings across 68 relief appearances in 2015, and while that equates to just 4.0 batters faced per game, most, Gibby included, seem to think that number is going to rise. <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/03/17/toronto-blue-jays-drew-storen-roberto-osuna-compete-for-closer-role/81896954/" target="_blank">In USA Today</a> John Gibbons was quoted as saying,  “Osuna can give you more than one inning. Drew’s probably limited to one inning. That’s kind of who they are.” On nights where on of Storen or Cecil is unavailable, it would be unsurprising to see Osuna pitch two innings.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-3.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-533" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-3.png" alt="Table 3" width="586" height="485" /></a></p>
<p>Beyond those three, the bullpen competition really opens up. Despite becoming the poster boy for meltdown innings last year, Aaron Loup almost assuredly has a leg up if his arm injury proves minor, and with his regression into a pseudo-LOOGY, he’s another one-and-done type of pitcher (3.1 batters faced per game).</p>
<p>At least one of Jesse Chavez, Gavin Floyd, Drew Hutchison, and Aaron Sanchez will find purchase as the fifth starter in the rotation, with the other three finding themselves in a battle for the bullpen. The loser(s) of the spring skirmishes, likely those with options (Sanchez and Hutchison), also face the possibility of a <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/15/290/">demotion to the rotation in Buffalo</a> as insurance. Still, this is where the roots of any philosophical shift have the potential to really take hold. All four have been starting pitchers within the last two seasons (even Floyd!), and if tasked to work in relief, could easily come into a game in the fourth, fifth, or sixth inning and turn the opposing lineup over one or one-and-a-half times before handing the lead off to one of the late-inning dynamos.</p>
<p>Most of the other remaining candidates for the final couple of spots in the bullpen also fit the mould as potential multi-inning relievers extremely well. Pat Venditte, Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz, and even Chad Jenkins have found varying degrees of success in baseball’s uppermost levels, facing five-plus batters per relief appearance. Even last December’s Rule 5 pick-up, Joe Biagini, feels like a legitimate option. The 24 year old has been a starter his entire minor league career, but in short bursts this spring, his fastball has been registering 95’s and 96’s on the gun, giving off the vibe that he might be the type of arm that could play up in relief when tasked with throwing twenty or thirty pitches and facing a lineup just once. Over the winter Andrew Stoeten <a href="http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/12/10/jays-select-rhp-joe-biagini-in-the-rule-five-draft/">offered forth the hypothesis</a> that the team may even see him as “Liam Hendriks 2.0”, and while, <em>no one can be Liam Hendriks</em>, it’s an interesting thought worth consideration. The periphery of the 40-man roster and the non-roster invitees also boast relief options with some length in former starter Scott Diamond and relievers Brady Dragmire, Chad Girodo, Ben Rowen, and Blake McFarland, the latter four of whom averaged 6.6, 5.3, 5.1, and 4.9 batters faced per 2015 appearance.</p>
<p>For the sake of argument, let&#8217;s envision an entirely plausible scenario in which Gavin Floyd wins the fifth spot, both Aaron Sanchez and Drew Hutchison are sent to Buffalo to stay stretched out, and Aaron Loup opens the season on the 15-day disabled list. In this case the Blue Jays head north with a bullpen comprised of Storen, Cecil, Osuna, Chavez, Venditte, Tepera, and Biagini. John Gibbons would have a dynamic mix of arms capable of handling any situation, and the length offered by the two converted starters in Chavez and Biagini would allow him to be hyper-aggressive with his bullpen and force a completely different look on opposing batters as soon as they appear to be getting comfortable with one of his starting pitchers. It would be an unprecedented approach outside of the confines of Tropicana Field, and could give the Blue Jays a much-needed edge as they battle four other strong teams in hopes of claiming their second AL East title in as many years. Mark Shapiro is known around baseball for his progressive thinking, and this might be the perfect opportunity to use that analytical mindset to directly improve the product on the field.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Major Aaron Sanchez Debate Should be Minor(s)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/15/290/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/15/290/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Mar 2016 14:50:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=290</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oh, Spring Training. A time of mascot antics, stories about players in the best shape of their lives, and hot takes for the sake of hot takes. On Sunday, the latter was fulfilled by Sportsnet&#8217;s Mike Wilner, as he argued that the Jays should use Aaron Sanchez solely as a relief pitcher in 2016. Given [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, Spring Training. A time of <a title="mascot antics" href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/video/v552025783/torphi-bautista-challenges-phanatic-to-work-out/?partnerId=as_mlb_20160312_59276766&amp;adbid=708730498361593856&amp;adbpl=tw&amp;adbpr=41468683" target="_blank">mascot antics</a>, stories about players in the best shape of their lives, and hot takes for the sake of hot takes. On Sunday, the latter was fulfilled by <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-use-sanchez-reliever-2016/" target="_blank">Sportsnet&#8217;s Mike Wilner</a>, as he argued that the Jays should use Aaron Sanchez solely as a relief pitcher in 2016. Given that prior to Sunday the conventional wisdom was that Sanchez would assuredly be in the rotation, Wilner&#8217;s comments created a heated discussion. In his piece, he makes the very salient point that &#8220;we don’t know what Sanchez is as a starter. Is he the guy with the 2.57 ERA over his last four starts, the one who stopped walking people, or is he the guy who struggled with his command and couldn’t get deep into games earlier in the season?&#8221;</p>
<p>Sanchez is risky as a starter, but we already know that he&#8217;s fairly reliable as a reliever. Wilner argues that the reliability is what is needed for a team in contention. Conversely, on Twitter, many have argued that the risk is precisely what the Jays need to set themselves apart. Or, more specifically, that the the Jays need to try Sanchez in the major league rotation soon as to not waste him.</p>
<p>Now, what if I told you that they&#8217;re both mostly wrong?</p>
<p>In past years, the Jays <em>needed</em> to try and bet on upside in the rotation in order to succeed (See: Norris, Daniel, and Boyd, Matt). However, this season, that&#8217;s not true at all. Without even counting Aaron Sanchez, the Jays have seven starters that could easily slot into a rotation: Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Gavin Floyd, Jesse Chavez, and Drew Hutchison. Do any of the latter three have as much upside as Aaron Sanchez in the long term? Probably not. Can they pitch to a similar or better ERA in 2016? Probably.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s the first point against Sanchez as a starter. Even if he&#8217;s 30 percent better than he was the last time he was in the rotation, that&#8217;s still not good enough. Sure, Sanchez put up a 3.55 ERA in the role last season, but that was on the back of roughly equal strikeout (15.0 percent) and walk (13.2 percent) rates. In history, there are no pitchers who&#8217;ve consistently survived on that little split between walks and strikeouts &#8211; no matter how high their ground ball rates may have been.</p>
<p>Sanchez&#8217;s supporters would likely argue that he isn&#8217;t the same pitcher that we saw at the beginning of last season. They would, as Wilner notes, point out that Sanchez had a 2.57 ERA over his last four starts. Or perhaps they&#8217;ll offer up a picture of the <a href="https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/700696959825215488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">new, bulked up Sanchez</a> as some evidence that he&#8217;s &#8216;ready to start&#8217;. He might very well be, but when there are other alternatives, why throw him in to the AL East fire? They don&#8217;t have to.</p>
<p>That argument may lead you to believe that Sanchez should be in the bullpen instead, right? Au contraire, mon ami. In spite of my affliction towards disdain for relievers who don&#8217;t fit the high-strikeout mold, I&#8217;d be remiss to suggest that Aaron Sanchez isn&#8217;t an elite reliever. Since 2014, among relievers with at least 50 IP, Sanchez&#8217;s 1.67 ERA ranks fifth in baseball &#8211; ahead of big-dollar guys like Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman. That being said, the Jays would be silly to waste the arm of a man <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/10/19/revisiting-the-critical-dickey-trade-that-mets-are-reaping-now/" target="_blank">who Alex Anthopoulos chose to keep over Noah Syndergaard</a>; Sanchez needs to start. Fortunately, forcing him in to a relief role in 2016 doesn&#8217;t preclude the Jays from having him start in the future. As long as they&#8217;re not going back and forth between the roles in season, it shouldn&#8217;t hinder Sanchez&#8217;s development, and will definitely help this year&#8217;s squad. That&#8217;s Wilner&#8217;s argument.</p>
<p>While pitching in the pen this year won&#8217;t hinder Sanchez’ development, it won&#8217;t necessarily help it either. In order to be an effective starter, he&#8217;s going to have to further develop his pitch mix, which isn&#8217;t going to happen when he can succeed in relief by throwing <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=592717&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=pcount&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=06/21/2015&amp;endDate=03/14/2016" target="_blank">85 percent fastballs</a>. And just as there is plenty of starting depth, the same is true for the relievers. A back end that already includes Roberto Osuna, Brett Cecil, and Drew Storen doesn&#8217;t *need* another elite reliever. It certainly can&#8217;t hurt, but they&#8217;ll be fine without him. That brings us to what&#8217;s behind door number three: Start Aaron Sanchez in AAA.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s create a couple of decision criteria to break down this role conundrum.</p>
<p><em>How much does the role contribute to the team in 2016?</em><br />
<em> How much does the role help Sanchez reach his future potential?</em></p>
<p>In the Option 1, where Sanchez starts the season in the rotation, he might have be improved enough to be an asset, but he also might take up a spot from someone who can contribute more (i.e. Jesse Chavez or Gavin Floyd). In addition, he could be hurt developmentally if his changes don&#8217;t lead to success. In Option 2, wherein Sanchez remains a reliever, he&#8217;ll be a solid contributor in 2016&#8230;well, as much as any reliever can. However, he loses a year of development for starting, which doesn&#8217;t preclude him from starting all together, but does delay the process.</p>
<p>With Option 3, Buffalo, Sanchez won&#8217;t be able to contribute at the beginning of the season, outside of giving the team the opportunity to see what else they have in other arms. <a title="He may not enjoy it" href="http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/3/14/aaron-sanchez-wants-to-be-a-starter-but-will-he-be-ok-with-being-one-in-buffalo" target="_blank">He may not enjoy it</a>, but if Sanchez can hone his craft in Buffalo, it&#8217;s possible that he could be a bigger part of a late season playoff push than if he started the season in the major leagues. More importantly, he&#8217;ll also get the chance to develop as a starter in the best environment possible; he can throw as many curveballs, changeups, and cutters as necessary without worrying about results. Then, once he proves that he has mastered his stuff and AAA is no longer a challenge for him, the Jays can call him up.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s important to keep in mind that, unlike Marcus Stroman or Brett Lawrie before him, Aaron Sanchez never forced his way in to the majors. He stumbled up the ladder when the Jays lacked a right handed arm at the back of the bullpen. With that in mind, and the fact that the Jays finally have the depth to allow pitching prospects to develop, they need not be hasty. At one point, Aaron Sanchez was hailed as future top of the rotation starter. After <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/12/red-sox-sign-david-price.html">losing out on one this offseason</a>, the Jays should know now, more than ever, just how valuable those players can be.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t waste it.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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