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	<title>Toronto &#187; Gavin Floyd</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays Re-Sign RHP Gavin Floyd</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/05/blue-jays-re-sign-gavin-floyd/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/05/blue-jays-re-sign-gavin-floyd/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jan 2017 18:36:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Erstwhile RHP Gavin Floyd is back in a Blue Jays uniform, per a team press release this afternoon. The deal is a minor league contract with the standard invitation to spring training. Terms and conditions relevant to salary and/or an opt-out date have not yet been announced. In the soon to be 34-year-old&#8217;s case, those [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Erstwhile RHP Gavin Floyd is back in a Blue Jays uniform, per a team press release this afternoon. The deal is a minor league contract with the standard invitation to spring training. Terms and conditions relevant to salary and/or an opt-out date have not yet been announced.</p>
<p>In the soon to be 34-year-old&#8217;s case, those conditions might be more relevant than usual. Floyd was said, last spring, to be a rotation candidate until he lost that battle to Aaron Sanchez (in which there is no shame) so it&#8217;s reasonable to conclude both the pitcher and the team see him as capable of returning to the starting role. That, then, provokes the question of whether or not he has the ability to opt-out if they don&#8217;t retain him on the major league squad. If they can, in fact, assign him to Buffalo then he would presumably become the default &#8220;#6 starter&#8221; which is one of the priority needs that Toronto still had to fill.</p>
<p>On the other hand, if he&#8217;s focused on being on a major league squad regardless of role, and has the option to walk away, then there are implications for bullpen construction since the Blue Jays would not want to let a potential emergency starter get away. This is, of course, assuming he pitches well enough in Spring Training to demonstrate his value.</p>
<p>Floyd was a good contributor during the first half of last season, with a 3.75 K/BB ratio, 8.7 K/9 and a typically tidy 2.3 BB/9 rate. Also worth noting, although the 31 innings pitched is a small sample, LH hitters hit a mere .111 off him last year, with a .450 OPS. While that sort of result would be a boost to a bullpen starved for reliable options versus lefties, it&#8217;s not reflected in his career rates so it&#8217;s likely a fluke.</p>
<p>Floyd&#8217;s transition to the bullpen last season saw him gain 1.1 MPH on his fastball, which helped him allow just three runs from the beginning of the season until May 11th in 16 1/3 innings pitched. However, the wheels fell off after that, and he had a 6.75 ERA from that point until his season ended due to injury on June 25th. With Floyd the question is always about staying healthy, and if he could, he will likely be able to contribute to the big league club in 2017 as the 6th or 7th reliever on the squad.</p>
<p>As always, there is no such thing as a bad minor league deal. Let&#8217;s just hope this one is followed up with a few MLB deals.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 3; Floyd Fails in 11th</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/29/recap-red-sox-5-blue-jays-3-floyd-fails-in-11th/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 29 May 2016 21:56:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Pedroia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extra innings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3204</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s safe to say that no game, since the home opener, this season began with more positive energy than this one. Coming in with a 7-2 record since the disastrous three-game sweep at home by the Rays, which  was surely the &#8220;gut check&#8221; moment of the season so far, the 2015 confidence was back in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s safe to say that no game, since the home opener, this season began with more positive energy than this one. Coming in with a 7-2 record since the disastrous three-game sweep at home by the Rays, which  was surely the &#8220;gut check&#8221; moment of the season so far, the 2015 confidence was back in play. Even so, the exuberance had to be tempered a bit by the knowledge that RA Dickey entered the game with a 5.94 ERA against AL East opponents this year (six of his 10 starts this year) and 7.45 against Boston in two starts. And of course, the memory of knowing what David Price is capable of on any given day.<br />
Dickey put fears about his performance to rest in a dominant no-hit performance through  five innings. Price held the Jays scoreless until Jose Bautista delivered a two-run homer into the left field corner in the bottom of the fifth. Now the onus was on Dickey to shut down the Boston club in the sixth.</p>
<p>Alas, it was not to be. With one out in the sixth, Mookie Betts gave the Red Sox their first hit, a triple, followed by single, single, walk, HBP and the game was tied when Dickey left the game with nothing to show for his 5.1 no-hit innings. Chad Girodo came in and walked the go ahead run home, before Jesse Chavez replaced him to get two big outs and leave the bases loaded. The pressure now shifted back to David Price, and he delivered. The score remained 3-2 until the bottom of the eighth.</p>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion changed that up when he launched his 10th homer of the year off Red Sox reliever Heath Hembree to lead off the inning. The Blue Jays put two more baserunners on in the inning, but failed to score again. They put two on in the bottom of the ninth and stranded them again. Extra innings would be needed to settle it.</p>
<p>Things began to fall apart for the Jays in the 11th inning. A (probably tired) Gavin Floyd walked two and gave way to Drew Storen, Storen surrendered a ground-rule double which was followed by an RBI groundout and the home team was down 5-3. Koji Uehara easily retired the Blue Jays in the bottom of the inning and the Red Sox avoided the sweep.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Dustin Pedroia&#8217;s ground rule double that drove in the go-ahead tun in the 11th inning increased the Red Sox&#8217;s win probability by, as you might expect, 40%. It was the clutch hit the Red Sox needed to put them over the top. The Blue Jays failures in that regard were further magnified by Pedroia&#8217;s ability to  execute.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>An inning before, Josh Rutledge flew out to center field with 2 on and 2 out, decreasing Boston&#8217;s chances by 14.6%.</p>
<h3>Trend To Watch</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays burned through six relievers to get through the 11th inning, leaving Aaron Loup as the last man standing out there. Given that three of the six were also used on Saturday, the Jays may want to go to an eight man bullpen vs. the Yankees, since there is no off-day between series. Stay tuned for possible roster moves.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Marco Estrada and his 2.76 ERA take the mound for the Blue Jays tomorrow as the Yankees come to town and the Toronto club looks to feast on Ivan Nova (3.65 ERA and 63% groundball rate).</p>
<p><em>Lead photo credit : Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Gavin Floyd: The Quasi Drew Storen</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/gavin-floyd-the-quasi-drew-storen/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/gavin-floyd-the-quasi-drew-storen/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 May 2016 10:15:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2644</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The closer debate began the moment the Blue Jays traded for Drew Storen back in January, and the embers of the competition were stoked throughout the full duration of camp. It wasn’t until March 30th that manager John Gibbons made the announcement that Roberto Osuna had won the battle and would continue the role in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: left">The closer debate began the moment the Blue Jays traded for Drew Storen back in January, and the embers of the competition were stoked throughout the full duration of camp. It wasn’t until March 30th that manager John Gibbons <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/30/roberto-osuna-is-the-right-choice-for-closer/">made the announcement</a> that Roberto Osuna had won the battle and would continue the role in which he dominated for the final four months of 2015. The public reaction to the announcement was fairly evenly split, as while just about everyone agreed that Osuna was the better of the two pitchers, those on “<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/31/drew-storen-named-closer-a-win-for-progressive-thinking/">Team Storen</a>” were envisioning the 21 year old flamethrower pitching in the highest leverage situations possible – which often occur in the seventh and eighth innings – with Storen earning the less impactful “saves” in the ninth. This leverage hypothesis has since been confirmed, as you&#8217;ll see shortly.</p>
<p>Six weeks into the season, it’s inching towards laughable that there was ever a closer battle to begin with. Storen hasn’t looked right since his first outing of the year against Tampa Bay, and while Gibbons has repeatedly assured everyone that the right hander is healthy, healthy pitchers don’t often lose three miles per hour off their fastball over the course of an offseason. Storen’s performance has become so unreliable that not only is he completely out of the picture for closing games, he has managed to remove himself from the right handed setup guy conversation, too. Thankfully for the Blue Jays, the February signing of Gavin “I’m only here because my agent is Mark Shapiro’s dad (note: This is in jest)” Floyd has paid off in spades. The oft-injured pitcher has emerged as Gibbons’ second most trustworthy right handed reliever, delivering a breakout that resembles that of last season’s unsung hero (gasp) Liam Hendriks.</p>
<p>Floyd has found his success by evolving his repertoire to better suit his new role. Back in his starter days, he relied upon a balanced, four-pitch arsenal of a four seam fastball, two seam fastball, slider, and curveball, with his changeup serving as a fifth “back of the mind” type offering. Through thirteen relief appearances in 2016, his two seam fastball and changeup have largely been parked, with the four seam fastball and curveball rising to the top as his two primary (and best) offerings. Floyd’s four seam usage has climbed to 40.2 percent – the highest it has been in nine years – while his curveball currently accounts for 32.1 percent of his pitches – more than double its usage rate from last season and well above any other years in which he started.</p>
<p>When starters are converted to the bullpen, you often see the fastball velocity tick up a little bit. This has been the case with Floyd as well; he previously averaged around 92 miles per hour, but that mark has jumped up to 93 this season and has been edging upwards towards 94 over the past couple of weeks. One interesting aspect regarding Floyd’s fastball is that the gap between his maximum velocity and his average velocity has closed over the years. This trend is depicted in Figure 1 below, which suggests that Floyd is throwing with something very close to maximum effort on each and every fastball; there’s not a whole lot of “veteran savvy” adding and subtracting going on to mess up timing.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2645" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-1.png" alt="Floyd Figure 1" width="623" height="431" /></a></p>
<p>This approach appears to be working, and the reason may be that the lack of a “subtracting” element has been negated by his increased reliance upon the curveball. Whereas his slider and nigh-extinct changeup both average around 87 miles per hour – just five or six miles separated from his fastball – the bender has typically been thrown around 81 mph to create a nice velocity window of twelve miles per hour. Over 72 percent of Floyd’s pitches this season have been thrown at one of these two extremes, which has helped his swinging strike rate climb into legitimately elite company. Among 175 qualified relievers, Floyd’s overall swinging strike rate – i.e. the percentage of all pitches which were swung on and missed – ranks 12th at 16.6 percent, just a hair behind Yankees super-reliever Andrew Miller.</p>
<p>Floyd has thrown 79 curveballs this season. Another 26 relievers have thrown at least 50, bringing the sample to a total of 27 pitchers. Within that group, Floyd ranks 4th in whiff per swing rate at 54.6 percent and 1st in groundball rate at <em>one hundred percent</em>. The former figure is ahead of Dellin Betances and Brett Cecil, to name a few. The latter is somewhat misleading given that just four of his 79 curveballs have been put into play, but at the same time, having batters put 5.0 percent (4/79) of curveballs into play seems equally incredible. For context, in 2015, batters put 12.5 percent (43/345) of Brett Cecil’s curveballs in play, and <a title="Brett Cecil’s Second-Half Magic and Baseball’s Best Curveball" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/09/brett-cecils-second-half-magic-and-baseballs-best-curveball/" target="_blank">Brett Cecil’s curveball is insanely good</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2649" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Figure-2.png" alt="Floyd Figure 2" width="1118" height="544" /></a></p>
<p>With both his fastball and curveball he has a clear plan of attack, and as Figure 2 above depicts, it’s a complementary one-two punch. Righties get fastballs down and away, and curveballs even further down and away. Lefties get fastballs in on their hands, and curveballs thrown at their back foot. This approach makes the curveball a truly devastating weapon as its break is really only just beginning where the fastball finishes. Thanks to an average spin axis of 47 degrees, the breaking ball has nearly equal vertical and horizontal movement; a true two-plane pitch. Floyd’s pitch usage with two strikes suggests he’s conscious of the vulnerable position in which he’s able to place batters. In those situations he starts leaning heavily on the curveball – its usage climbs to 50 and 46 percent versus lefties and righties, respectively, and has accounted for ten of his eighteen strikeouts.</p>
<p>Gibbons has already recognized what he has in Floyd, as the right hander is currently sporting the third highest gmLI (or Game Leverage Index) among Blue Jays relievers. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/li/">Game Leverage Index</a> is one of the better indicators for the level of trust that a manager has in a reliever, as it represents the average leverage index for the situations when a pitcher <em>enters</em> the game, rather than the average leverage index for <em>all</em> events. Leverage Indexes are scaled to where 2.00 and above is considered “high” leverage, anything below 0.85 is considered “low” leverage, and anything in between those two points is “average” leverage.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Table-11.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2647" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Floyd-Table-11.png" alt="Floyd Table 1" width="470" height="264" /></a></p>
<p>The only two pitchers who have a higher average Game Leverage Index than Gavin Floyd are Brett Cecil and Arnold Leon. Cecil being there you would expect, and the two are neck-in-neck at the upper end of average leverage at 1.80 and 1.75. Leon on the other hand, represents one of John Gibbons’ single greatest mistakes of the early season. He brought the team’s seventh best reliever into a situation with a leverage index of 5.50 – a 3-2 lead in the eighth inning, with one out and two runners on – and we all remember how that unfolded. In the only other game Leon pitched this season, he entered with a leverage index of 0.43, but the damage to his manager’s faith was irreparable. In fact, for the Gibbons critics out there, outside of that erroneous Leon deployment, the average Game Leverage Indexes for Blue Jays relievers are pretty close to what you’d hope to see. It would be nice if Osuna were at the very top of the list, but having Cecil, Floyd, Osuna, Storen, and Chavez in descending order as the top five among the regular options is strong. That the non-Osuna and Floyd arms have largely squandered the opportunities thrust upon them is not blame for Gibbons to shoulder.</p>
<p>Table 1 also shows the strand rate for Blue Jays relievers, something that has become a hot topic for obvious reasons. The two pitchers inheriting the most base runners, Cecil and Chavez, have managed to strand fewer than fifty percent, which has cost the team a number of games. Gibbons <em>should </em>shoulder some of the blame here for frequently keeping his starters in too long and seldom giving his relievers a clean slate, but strand rates between 40 and 50 percent are simply inexcusable. That Storen has inherited zero runners and has still been cratered by opposing offenses is damning, and indicative of just how far he has fallen.</p>
<p>Amid this collection of embarrassing strand rates stands Gavin Floyd at nearly 80 percent. He has entered games with nine runners aboard, but has allowed just two of them to come around to score. As summer approaches, expect Floyd’s level of responsibility to mimic the rising temperatures and continue to grow. Roberto Osuna remains unquestionably the best arm in the bullpen, but the unexpected emergence of Gavin Floyd has drastically lessened the sting of Drew Storen’s disaster of debut season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Recap: White Sox 7, Blue Jays 5; The Bullpen Coughs it Up Again</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/25/recap-white-sox-7-blue-jays-5-the-bullpen-coughs-it-up-again/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Apr 2016 02:49:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[miguel gonzalez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1998</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Though the Jays got to the White Sox early, their late inning woes returned, as the bullpen hacked up a four-run lead in their 7-5 loss to the White Sox. The Jays did get to Miguel Gonzalez quickly, notching multiple runs in the first and third innings. The White Sox starter wasn&#8217;t fooling the Jays, as [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Though the Jays got to the White Sox early, their late inning woes returned, as the bullpen hacked up a four-run lead in their 7-5 loss to the White Sox. The Jays did get to Miguel Gonzalez quickly, notching multiple runs in the first and third innings. The White Sox starter wasn&#8217;t fooling the Jays, as they made good contact for most of the evening, allowing ten hits in five and one-third innings of work, striking out five. The White Sox bullpen made the one-run lead stand up, with four pitchers combining for three and two-thirds innings of scoreless baseball, and David Robertson notching his eighth save.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman survived a first inning scare to have another solid outing, going six and two-thirds innings, allowing four runs on six hits, and striking out four. But it was the seventh inning that undid his mostly good work, as neither Brett Cecil or Gavin Floyd was able to shut the White Sox down. Inheriting a bases loaded situation, they allowed all the inherited runners to score, plus two more. Five runs scored in that inning, erasing the lead the Jays had built up early on.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>It was in that fateful seventh inning, when the White Sox sent eleven batters to the plate. They&#8217;d come into the inning trailing 5-1 before Stroman loaded the bases and gave way to Cecil, who allowed three consecutive hits, and all three of those runners to score. Gavin Floyd came in to face Todd Frazier, who promptly hit a double to left field, scoring two runs and giving the White Sox a 6-5 lead. This increased their chances to win by 35.5%.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Jays had two runners on in the ninth inning when Michael Saunders, representing the tying run, hit a ground ball to second base. Troy Tulowitzki, who was on first base initially, managed to get hit by the ball on the way to second, and the umpire ruled him out. The final play of the game ended up being the worst one for the Jays, reducing their chances to win by 9%.</p>
<h3>Bullpen Woes Return</h3>
<p>After a difficult start to the season, a couple of good games from the Jays&#8217; offense had brought the hope that their bullpen- who had blown several games early on- had stabilized itself. Not so, as after Stroman exited in the sixth, Cecil threw to three batters without recording an out, and Floyd took three more to record the final out of the inning, striking out former Blue Jay Brett Lawrie, and putting two runs on Cecil&#8217;s ledger. The Jays had allowed an American League worst 50% of runners to score prior to this game, a number that did not get better with the game today.</p>
<h3>Jays Figure Out Gonzalez</h3>
<p>The Sox might have thought they were being smart, getting Gonzalez to start tonight against the Jays. He had a 7-3 record and a 2.61 ERA in his career against them. It was clear early on that the Jays had his number tonight, scoring multiple runs in the first and third innings, staking the Jays to an early lead. Encarnacion was the chief benefactor of the Jays&#8217; offensive surges, getting three RBIs against Gonzalez.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The starting pitching matchup tonight for the Jays was excellent. Tomorrow is somewhat less so, with the Jays sending knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (1-2, 6.10 ERA) to face Chris Sale (4-0, 1.80). Dickey has had his usual April struggles, though he recovered from a bad first inning in his last outing to go six innings. But you never know what you&#8217;ll get with Dickey. You will know what you get with Sale, who has been one of baseball&#8217;s best pitchers for the last few years. Sale IS left-handed, a matchup which favors the Jays&#8217; mainly right-handed lineup. The game starts at 7:07 Eastern time.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo &#8211; Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays &#8220;Stuff&#8221; Report &#8211; Volume 1</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-1/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Apr 2016 13:47:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1613</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at www.mikesonne.ca. Welcome to the first Toronto Blue [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at<a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/"> www.mikesonne.ca</a>.</em></p>
<p>Welcome to the first Toronto Blue Jays Stuff report! My colleague <a href="https://twitter.com/danmmulla" target="_blank">Daanish Mulla</a> and I created the stuff statistic as a way of quantifying what colour commentators are always referring to &#8211; the quality of a pitcher&#8217;s &#8220;stuff&#8221;. If you have never heard about the metric before &#8211; here&#8217;s a brief explanation.</p>
<div id="attachment_1618" style="width: 749px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/What-is-Stuff.png"><img class="wp-image-1618 " src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/What-is-Stuff-1024x575.png" alt="Stuff is an interaction between velocity, pitch usage, pitch movement, and change of velocity. Previous articles on the development of the stuff equation have found that it is significantly correlated with both K/9, WAR, and xFIP/ERA. The benefit of using the Stuff metric, is you could theoretically look at a pitcher’s arsenal in a bullpen session, and with the use of radar guns and spin trackers, could calculate their stuff. This has implications for both scouting, and rehabilitation." width="739" height="415" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Stuff is an interaction between velocity, pitch usage, pitch movement, and change of velocity. Previous articles on the development of the stuff equation have found that it is significantly correlated with both K/9, WAR, and xFIP/ERA. The benefit of using the Stuff metric is that you could theoretically look at a pitcher’s arsenal in a bullpen session and, with the use of radar guns and spin trackers, still calculate that pitcher&#8217;s stuff. This has implications for both scouting, and rehabilitation.</p></div>
<h2><strong>How to Interpret Stuff</strong></h2>
<p>These rankings are filtered in descending order, from the best stuff to the worst. I have presented the raw values that went into the calculation (because these are more fun to look at than the z-scores), and I have also provided the percentile for stuff – which is from 0 to 100%. For reference, if a pitcher has 95% stuff, that means that their stuff is better than 95% of all other major league pitchers. Percentiles are blocked in 1% increments, so that is why you may see more than 1 – 100% stuff pitchers.</p>
<h2><strong>Blue Jays Starters</strong></h2>
<p>You can find &#8220;Stuff&#8221; ratings <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/" target="_blank">for the rest of the league here</a>, but on this page we&#8217;re going to focus on the boys in blue.</p>
<p>Buoyed by his blazing fastball, and the insane amount of distance covered between his fastball and breaking pitches, Aaron Sanchez not only has the best stuff on the Blue Jays, but some of the best Stuff in all of baseball. It looks like he&#8217;s starting to gain control over that weapon as well &#8211; which must be terrifying to the rest of the AL East. J.A. Happ has seen his stuff stay relatively level compared to his 2015 season, which is encouraging given his overall performance. In fact, despite getting older, Happ&#8217;s <a href="//www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/let-it-happ-en/">stuff appears to be getting even better</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Starters-Stuff.png"><img class=" wp-image-1617  aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Starters-Stuff-1024x162.png" alt="Starters Stuff" width="778" height="123" /></a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Starters-Stuff-Graph.png"><img class="  aligncenter wp-image-1616" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Starters-Stuff-Graph-1024x742.png" alt="Starters Stuff Graph" width="546" height="396" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Blue Jays Relievers</h2>
<p>In order to have enough of a sample to be included in the reliever stuff rankings, RPs need to have pitched at least once per week.</p>
<p>In what may seem as a minor surprise to fans, Rule 5 pick Joe Biagini leads the way for Blue Jays relievers in the early part of the season. His stuff ranking comes from an above average amount of break distance, and a 16.5% change in velocity. It is also very encouraging to see how much his Stuff has increased from the 2015 season, as you always want to see growth in a young arm. Roberto Osuna&#8217;s stuff hasn&#8217;t gone up, but that&#8217;s because it remains at his already elite level of Stuff from the 2015 season. On the flip side, Gavin Floyd has seen a pretty substantial drop in his stuff from the 2015 season. As for everyone on this list, it&#8217;s very early in the season, and there may be significant changes by the time Stuff Volume 2 comes out in two weeks.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Bullpen-Stuff.png"><img class=" wp-image-1615 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Bullpen-Stuff-1024x157.png" alt="Bullpen Stuff" width="777" height="119" /><img class=" wp-image-1614 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/Bullpen-Stuff-Graph-1024x742.png" alt="Bullpen Stuff Graph" width="546" height="396" /></a>Thanks for reading the first Stuff report. If you have any questions, please be sure to let me know in the comments.</p>
<p><em>Thanks to Michael Copeland, Nick Dika, and Joshua Howsam for making sure I came across as somewhat literate when writing this piece.</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>How a Poor First Series Bullpen Trend Could Hurt the Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/08/how-a-poor-first-series-bullpen-trend-could-hurt-the-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/08/how-a-poor-first-series-bullpen-trend-could-hurt-the-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Apr 2016 12:16:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Arnold Leon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1218</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As the Blue Jays prepare to take on the Boston Red Sox for their home opener, in front of a raucous crowd of 48,000 people, we can assume that they will have already forgotten about the four-game series in Tampa Bay. The blown leads, Josh Donaldson’s injury scare (he is expected to suit up tonight), [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As the Blue Jays prepare to take on the Boston Red Sox for their home opener, in front of a raucous crowd of 48,000 people, we can assume that they will have already forgotten about the four-game series in Tampa Bay. The blown leads, Josh Donaldson’s injury scare (he is expected to suit up tonight), and all the strikeouts are in the rearview mirror. It would probably be best to join the players in moving on, but we would be remiss if we didn’t mention one of the red flags from the series that could carry over into &#8216;Home Opening Weekend&#8217; and beyond.</p>
<p>If you were paying even a little bit of attention to Wednesday’s getaway day, you’re well aware that Arnold Leon came into the game with runners on the corners, one out and a one run lead, and then proceeded to immediately surrender a three-run, game-winning home run. Bringing in Leon in that spot was a questionable decision at best, and a downright awful one at worst. He is a mediocre relief pitcher who couldn’t even catch on in Oakland’s empty bullpen&#8230;so why was be pitching with the game on the line in the 8th inning?</p>
<p>Part of that had to do with the unavailability of a large number of Blue Jays relievers. Jesse Chavez, Brett Cecil, and Drew Storen were all deemed unavailable due to previous workloads. The reason for Storen’s inability to pitch has been hotly contested on the airwaves, but if he wasn’t going to pitch, I’m not sure it really matters.</p>
<p>However, the real issue arises when you realize that, even with that group of players out of action, there’s no reason Leon should have seen the mound. Gavin Floyd had pitched 1.1 innings to that point and had registered three strikeouts, with the only two baserunners having reached on soft hits off the end of the bat. He has been stretched out in spring and could easily have kept going. However, even if John Gibbons was 100% sure Floyd needed to come out, there’s no reason not to summon Roberto Osuna to put out the fire.</p>
<p>Of course, you’ve probably read a dozen pieces about this move (or non-move) by now. I only bring it up as a symptom of the greater overall problem: the strict adherence to roles and a fundamental ignorance of leverage.</p>
<p>Baseball&#8217;s biggest leverage trap almost almost reared its ugly head during that same Wednesday game, but no one seems to want to talk about it. In the bottom of the fourth, with the Blue Jays leading 3-0, J.A. Happ gave up four singles (and had one strikeout) to reduce the Toronto lead to 3-1 with the bases loaded and one out. As expected in this situation, a reliever began to get loose in the bullpen. When the camera panned down to give us a look, the man standing there was&#8230;Joe Biagini.</p>
<p>For those of you unaware, Joe Biagini was a Rule V pick from the Giants. I actually like what the Jays might have in the tall righty; he has a hard fastball and a reasonably sharp curveball. That being said, if the Jays wouldn’t have been forced to send him back to San Francisco, there is a 100 percent chance he would’ve been sent to the minors. He has never pitched in the major leagues; in fact, he has never even pitched above AA. Yet there he was, getting ready to come into Wednesday’s game.</p>
<p>Many of you could be reading this and asking “who cares? It’s the fourth inning?” To which I would respond, “why does that matter?” It was a situation where the game could have easily gotten away from the Blue Jays. That didn’t happen, as Happ bore down and got out of the inning without further damage. Though, as he has done time and time again, when Gibbons went to his bullpen early in the game with runners on base, he reached for his long reliever. How many times have we seen the likes of Todd Redmond, Scott Copeland, or Ramon Ortiz enter a close game early with runners on base? Many. The question is&#8230;why?</p>
<p>How did this become the practice? With all the advancements in bullpen usage over the years, how is it written that a long reliever has to be the first man out of the pen in a short outing by the starter? Shouldn’t the first job be to get out of the inning, and keep the game close? You can worry about the rest of the game after that.</p>
<p>Before I continue, I should be clear that this isn’t an issue that is unique to John Gibbons, or that I feel he is unfit as manager of the Toronto Blue Jays. I don’t think either of those things are true. In fact, I’d argue that he’s better than many at using his elite relievers in non-traditional ways. This is something that basically all managers do.</p>
<p>In fact, I have only actually seen someone make the <em>right</em> decision once. On June 21st last year, Chris Tillman got shelled by the Blue Jays, lasting just an inning and a third before being removed. However, the Jays starter, Scott Copeland, had already given up seven runs in his own inning and a third, so Baltimore still held a 7-4 lead when Tillman left the game with runners on second and third and one out.</p>
<p>In an effort to preserve the lead, Buck Showalter did not go to a long relief pitcher. Instead, he went to Tommy Hunter, one of his two primary setup men at the time, to shut things down. It didn’t work, as Hunter ended up letting both runners score, but it was a sign of a manager who was aware that he needed to kill the rally. At that instant, he knew that he needed to get to the next inning with a lead before he needed to worry about who would hold it.</p>
<p>It should be said that this probably doesn’t change a lot over the course of season. It might be the difference of one game over an entire season. However, in a division as tightly packed as the AL East, even the tiniest edge could mean the difference between a championship and mediocrity.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Denny Medley &#8211; USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What We Already Know About the 2016 Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/05/what-we-already-know-about-the-2016-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/05/what-we-already-know-about-the-2016-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Apr 2016 10:20:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Foul Territory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tickets]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1046</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The beginning of the regular season is always full of the stories that emerged throughout spring training. Some of these stories hint at breakthroughs, adjustments, and developments that have the potential to bode very well for the 2016 Blue Jays; Aaron Sanchez has developed his secondary stuff and put on weight (so why are we [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The beginning of the regular season is always full of the stories that emerged throughout spring training. Some of these stories hint at breakthroughs, adjustments, and developments that have the potential to bode very well for the 2016 Blue Jays; Aaron Sanchez has developed his secondary stuff and put on weight (so why are we criticizing Pablo Sandoval?), Tulo has a new leg kick, Michael Saunders is finally healthy, and Marcus Stroman wants to be the ace of the staff. Now, if you’re like me, spring training is all the definitive proof you need. If you can do it in March when you’re still rusty from winter vacation, why couldn’t you keep it up throughout the regular season?</p>
<p>However, while I want to pencil in Troy Tulowitzski for 60 bombs and Aaron Sanchez for a 2.00 ERA over 30 starts, some of the baseball intelligentsia insist differently. They throw around buzzwords like “sample size” and “quality of competition” like it&#8217;s completely meaningless that all of above mentioned spring accomplishments weren’t achieved while also being hung over (we’ve all seen bags under the players eyes on photo day) and tired from golfing. So while I vehemently disagree that we can’t draw conclusions from early on, with the season now underway, there are still some things that we can definitely know about the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays now that camp has broke and the season has begun.</p>
<h4>Edwin and Jose’s Agents Won’t Have a Lot of Work to Do In Season</h4>
<p>With Edwin refusing to negotiate in season and Jose setting his demands and not budging, it looks to be a pretty easy summer for Paul Kinzer and Jay Alou. Talk about not earning your 10%. It’s probably closer to 5% with Jose though; he seems like a tough negotiator. They may want to get in their cottage time now, their workload will most likely amp up at the end of the season.</p>
<h4>Conner Greene Is Making Daniel Norris Look Like Pete Incaviglia</h4>
<p>You probably thought we said goodbye to the organization’s handsome, charismatic pitching prospect at the deadline. But if you melted for the van-dwelling Daniel Norris, your heart just may explode for actor slash model Conner Greene. Despite possessing similar numbers at Double A (and in social media followers), Greene has taken over top spot as Toronto’s most babe-ly prospect of the past decade. With Norris on the Detroit DL and Greene on Anger Management, Greene is making everyone forget about the organization’s former golden boy. Oh, and apparently he’s touching the mid 90s too.</p>
<h4>Save Your Signing Bonus, Youngsters</h4>
<p>You’re a star amateur baseball player. You’re young, you’re talented and you’re on top of the world. You don’t want to spend wisely; you want to start a Yoenis Cespedes-style car or pony collection. But be forewarned &#8211; there’s no certainty the gravy train will last forever. Just ask some of the Buffalo Bisons. The Jays have three former top prospects starting the season at triple A: Jesus Montero, Tony Sanchez, and Dominic Brown. In addition, a couple other first round picks are currently on the fringy side of the major league roster in Justin Smoak and Gavin Floyd. Don’t get me started on Max Pentecost. Looking good in a uniform isn’t worth what it used to be. Here’s hoping one of these guys is the next Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista just in case the Jays can’t afford the current Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista. If only every waiver claim worked out so well.</p>
<h4>Roberto Osuna was not Interested in Making Money, Now he is</h4>
<p>According to comments he made last month, Roberto Osuna is still more interested in being a relief pitcher than a starter. It seems Osuna, who is barely 21, was just going through the defiant phase that most teenagers and young adults experience – rebelling against the authority of his front office staff that want him to buckle down, work hard and fulfill his potential. Now <a href="https://twitter.com/arturomarcano/status/716627727680462848" target="_blank">he has changed his mind</a> and decided he wants a bigger paycheck. You no longer need to worry that his three pitch arsenal and lack of platoon split will to go to waste.</p>
<h4>Gavin Floyd May Not Have the Front Office in His Pocket</h4>
<p>As Jays fans across the country eagerly waited for an opportunity to find fault in the new front office, the chance to charge them with nepotism in roster construction arose when Gavin Floyd, who may or may not be represented by Ron Shapiro (seriously, I’m not totally sure. ), was considered the favorite to land the fifth spot in the rotation. In the end though, the brain trust wisely sent Floyd to the bullpen while Aaron Sanchez begins the year in the rotation. It seems that Jays fans like me who were just pining for a reason to hate on the new front office (I don’t do well with change) will have to wait another day. Gavin Floyd and his elbow made of Popsicle sticks are in the bullpen where they belong. For now.</p>
<h4>Dynamic Pricing is Annoying</h4>
<p>If you’ve tried to buy tickets for opening weekend, you’ll notice that the usually 30-40 dollar outfield seats are now going for 45-50 on BlueJays.com. The Jays will nobly tell you they are trying to combat selling tickets on the secondary market. That’s because the team is doing their best to turn their own ticketing system into a secondary market for tickets &#8211; raising and lowering their prices to reflect demand. Remember all that talk of Mark Shapiro “bringing the front office into the 21<sup>st</sup> Century”? Everyone thought this meant some new interoffice computer systems and more work from home days. No one said it would be at the expense of the fans. If StubHub North isn’t enough of a slap in the face to longtime Jays fans who showed up during the barren years, now they have to wait in overly long lines to both purchase and expel any beverages they buy at the stadium.</p>
<h4>Jose Bautista May Be in Bad Shape</h4>
<p>Much has been said and written about Jose Bautista’s dedication to fitness and off the field training. This spring we saw that athleticism called into question when Jose and the Philly <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25514650/watch-jose-bautista-vs-phillie-phantic-in-outfield-hijinx" target="_blank">Phanatic went mano e mano in Clearwater</a>. The results showed the Phanatic as surprisingly agile and athletic for someone carrying so much weight in his green midsection. More importantly, there may be reason for concern as Jose Bautista might be in far worse shape than we are all being led to believe given his inability to best the Phanatic in any type of challenge aside from handstands.</p>
<h4>We Still Need to Talk About Dunedin</h4>
<p>While Florida Auto Exchange Stadium and the Bobby Mattick Training Centre were able to make it through spring training without adding another Major League regular to their kill count, Mark Shapiro has stayed on message that Toronto’s spring training facilities are in need of updates or relocation. We know that Shapiro is a fan of modernizing organizations and someone who places a premium value on player nutrition. A facility with a few microwaves and a freezer full of hot pockets simply isn’t good enough for the players on the 40-man roster (although its perfectly fine for non-roster invitees). And the new hires from Duke aren’t going to be able to stop someone from tripping on a sprinkler either.</p>
<p>While it may still be early, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn anything about the year ahead for the Blue Jays. The next six months will be full of ups and downs, known and unknown. Just remember that sometimes if you leave spring training without answers, it&#8217;s just because you aren’t asking easy enough questions.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How the Blue Jays Can Win 100 Games</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/04/how-the-blue-jays-can-win-100-games/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/04/how-the-blue-jays-can-win-100-games/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Apr 2016 10:00:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gavin Floyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=693</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s inevitable that, as April approaches, various pundits will weigh in with their predictions for the upcoming season. Such will soon be the case at BP Toronto. However, having already heard many people venture a guess, as well as having taken note of the results of various projections, I find myself with an outlying opinion. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s inevitable that, as April approaches, various pundits will weigh in with their predictions for the upcoming season. Such will soon be the case at BP Toronto. However, having already heard many people venture a guess, as well as having taken note of the results of various projections, I find myself with an outlying opinion. My prediction for your Toronto Blue Jays during the 2016 regular season lies 10-15 wins north of what the majority of other observers have discussed. When I ventured that prediction on Twitter, my esteemed colleague Ewan Ross was skeptical.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/Tammy_Beth">@Tammy_Beth</a> With that rotation?</p>
<p>&mdash; Ewan Ross (@Mentoch) <a href="https://twitter.com/Mentoch/status/711024852606394369">March 19, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Yes, with that rotation. Allow me to elaborate upon why I’m so confident.</p>
<h3><b>The Caveats</b></h3>
<p>Before I address the focus of his question, though, let’s establish some common ground. I think it’s fair to assert that<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28535"> no team in the AL has an offense in the same conversation as the Blue Jays</a>. In fact, even in all of baseball, only the Cubs come close. Moreover, it is at least arguable that the Blue Jays defense is on a par with the best in baseball. Six of the eight fielders (pitchers not included) taking the field on most nights are in the conversation for the best at what they do, and in a seventh position (left field), the defense will be greatly upgraded over the 2015 aggregate. Not only is defense not going to be a drag on the claims I will make about the pitching staff, but instead it should install confidence that the staff will achieve even better results than those which might be otherwise be projected.</p>
<p>Another note for clarity &#8211; when we say “staff” we’re really speaking of the rotation here. No one questions the abilities of Storen/Osuna/Cecil, and predicting the outcome of the middle relief squad of any team is a mug’s game. Therefore the accuracy of my bold prediction comes down to how the starting staff will fare, more than any other single factor, save for health. Even then, with health being a relatively equal risk factor for all teams, we can do little more than acknowledge that any team plagued by injuries will under-perform expectations.</p>
<p>Finally, a disclaimer. While discussing my concept for this article,<a href="http://twitter.com/joshuahowsam"> Joshua Howsam</a> pointed out that Baseball Prospectus&#8217; own<a href="http://twitter.com/rianwatt"> Rain Watt</a> discussed this same subject (marginal upside of a starting rotation collectively)<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28554"> almost a month ago</a>. I wasn&#8217;t aware of it and purposely didn&#8217;t read it until I&#8217;d roughed out my draft for this post. I&#8217;ve attempted, in refining this one, to avoid plowing too much of the same ground that Watt did, and instead go further into the specifics of the Blue Jays&#8217; particulars than he did. I&#8217;ll touch back on his article at the end of mine.</p>
<h3><b>The Methodology</b></h3>
<p>For the purpose of this analysis, I’ll be using BP’s WARP statistic, both as it has been accumulated to date, and as it is projected for 2016. In doing so I want to attempt to demonstrate why I’m so optimistic that projection systems are struggling to codify the staff’s potential. For contextual purposes, I need to point out that PECOTA projections are noticeably weighted towards the mean. To illustrate, 31 AL pitchers accumulate 2 WARP or better in 2015, yet only 16 are projected by PECOTA to do so in 2016. The total will surely be more than that, the system just isn’t designed to project that many.</p>
<p>Another example: Chris Sale has the highest pitcher WARP projection for the upcoming season at 4.2, yet Dallas Keuchel reached 6.2 last year and five others exceeded 4.2. The point being that my commentary is not meant to suggest figures in a vacuum, but rather to push back, where appropriate, against that regression since the regression is not always logical when one gets beyond the algorithms. It’s also necessary to add this disclaimer: I don’t remotely understand how the nitty gritty of PECOTA works. I’m simply using these figures for illustrative purposes, to support my prediction with something more concrete than admittedly biased opinion. With that said, here we go.</p>
<h3><b>The Analysis</b></h3>
<p>First data set: the total projected WARP for AL rotations in 2016 ranges from Cleveland’s 11.2 to Kansas City’s 4.3. In the AL East, the Red Sox shockingly come in second with 10.2, the Yankees are 4th at 9.5, the Rays with 8.6 are 7th, and the Blue Jays are all the way down at 12th with a mere 5.3. I take issue with that, as you will see, but that’s the cold number. So the gap between the Blue Jays and the best total in the AL East (assuming for a moment no one else moves off their projection) is 5 WARP. Remember that number.</p>
<p>Second data set: Here are the individual numbers for each potential Jays starter (note that the PECOTA managers thought Hutch would be the No. 5)</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman &#8211; 1.9</p>
<p>RA Dickey &#8211; 0.4</p>
<p>Marco Estrada &#8211; 0.6</p>
<p>JA Happ &#8211; 1.2</p>
<p>Drew Hutchison &#8211; 0.9</p>
<p>Gavin Floyd &#8211; 0.2</p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez 0.1</p>
<p>Laying aside the reality that he&#8217;s not the &#8216;5th starter&#8217;  hands up from everyone who would have been confident Hutch is going to accumulate more WARP than R.A. Dickey or Marco Estrada. No one? So, right away it’s sensible to be suspicious.  The WARP projections, which appear on the depth charts are the 50th percentile figures for any given player. On their player cards you can find a range of potential outcomes, ranging from the 90th to the 10th, with the idea being that the closer you get to the 50th, the more likely the outcome. With that in mind, let’s look at them individually.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman, at 1.9, jumped out at me immediately. In 24 career major league starts, and an irrelevant dash of relief pitching, Stroman has accumulated 3.1 career WARP. Just taking his past work as evidence, pro-rated accordingly, gives you a figure slightly higher than 4 WARP, which is almost twice what the 50th percentile figure is, and in fact it’s considered by the system to be his 90th percentile outcome. Admittedly, and I cannot say this emphatically enough, I do NOT know all the factors which are weighted in PECOTA, but I’m forced to speculate that it doesn’t really know what to make of the lost time last year. I’m highly confident that Stroman will at least replicate his previous success, and I see no compelling argument that he’d significantly regress.</p>
<p>R.A. Dickey is, perhaps, the easiest sell here, since it is accepted wisdom that he breaks all systems. While the PECOTA projection gives him a mere 0.4 (a figure he’s not dipped to since 2008, before  he began throwing the knuckleball). Over three seasons in Toronto he’s been measured at 2.9, 2.5, and 2.8 and there’s no real reason to presume he’ll fall from that neighborhood. His 90th percentile is 2.4, so let’s go with that. As with Stroman, I don’t see the argument that he’d collapse to the extent necessary to post 1/7 the value he delivered in 2015.</p>
<p>Marco Estrada is of course not able to point the same consistency that Dickey can. However his tiny 0.3 projection is, in my view, just plain silly. Let’s throw out the 3.5 last year as, potentially, a career peak. Still, over 2 seasons of full time starting in Milwaukee, his WARP totals were 2.1 and 1.8. It’s true he employed a somewhat different pitching style then (more on that in a sec) but I&#8217;d argue that those figures still represent a reasonable example of his value, even as he regresses. The system, though, pegs that previous level as his 80th percentile, which is to say 1.9, but I’m going to go with the 90th again (yes, I know how this looks but I’m at least defending the claim, right?) which happens to fall about halfway between those previous results, and what he did in 2015. That figure is 2.6, which I repeat still represents a regression from 2015. But I think the choice is justifiable, and here&#8217;s why:</p>
<p>Estrada added a cutter last year that he apparently <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/after-career-year-estrada-still-working-to-prove-critics-wrong/">found lying around in the in the bullpen</a> before his third start of the year in Houston, and his use of that pitch correlates with a noticeable uptick in his results. From that point through the end of the season his ERA was 3.08 but, more notably, by mid-June he had refined his use of the pitch and in his final 20 starts he posted a 2.62 ERA and limited opposing hitters to a stunning .558 OPS. For comparison, David Price limited opposing hitters to a .555 OPS during his 11 regular season starts for the Jays. Estrada followed that with a 2.33 ERA in three playoff starts. This may be the boldest claim I’ll make in this post, but I stand by it.</p>
<p>Next we come to J.A. Happ, who’s projection is 1.2 and I find that reasonable. I won’t tamper with it. In a post I wrote for Blue Jays Plus, I detailed my reasons for believing the rotation was at least equal to last year’s results and in doing so I pointed out that in the year of start between the break in 2014, and the break in 2015, Happ was essentially a league average or slightly above SP, with an ERA just under 4, and this was before he landed in Pittsburgh. However, excepting his run in Pittsburgh over the last 2 months of 2015, Happ has not finished a season higher than 0.9. WARP since 2009. I simply have no statistical support to predict that he’ll outperform what PECOTA assigned to him.</p>
<p>That leaves the fifth starter slot, which the Depth Chart lists as Drew Hutchison  The system calculated a 0.9 for him over the 23 starts that was assumed for him at the time. In the midst of uncertainty over who fills this slot, what we did know from pretty much the opening of camp was that it wouldn’t be Hutchison. You may know that I counted myself firmly in the “Aaron Sanchez of course!” Party when it comes to who should fill this role, so I&#8217;m obviously very pleased with the team&#8217;s choice, and I already laid out earlier in the week one possibility model for how he could accumulate 25-30 starts.</p>
<p>I’ll further state without having the data to support it, that should he get that many starts he’ll absolutely better this figure, easily. I wouldn’t be shocked if he tripled it  over a full season. However, there’s a LOT that we simply do not know in terms of how he&#8217;ll be handled, and data that can only be accumulated by watching him do it. As a starter this is a sort of rookie year for him, particularly given his physical development and the ongoing refinement in his technique.  So, on balance, I’ll leave it alone. Well, except to adjust to the closest percentile, so 1.3 is the figure here.</p>
<p>PECOTA also projects three other pitchers regarded as spot starters and, regardless of who they actually end up being, there’s another 0.3 in value there so we have a total of 11.8, which is much more respectable than 5.3, right?</p>
<p>“But,” you’ll say (I know you’re saying it right now) “You’re not considering what other teams are doing &#8211; you can&#8217;t just evaluate one team in a vacuum.” That’s quite true, which is why I applied the same rosy optimism to every other team in the AL East (darn hard to do for the Orioles, let me tell you) as well as the four other AL teams that fared best in the PECOTA projections &#8211; Cleveland, Chicago, Houston, and Seattle.</p>
<p>This is somewhat arbitrary, admittedly, but it seemed right and proper to consider every division rival, and the others were selected based on the likelihood that they would still come out with a higher total than Toronto when the study was complete. I confess that I&#8217;m trying to skate by with 8 teams here instead of all 14, but I don’t think it matter to defending my contention whether or not the rotation of, say, Texas, is being underrated by PECOTA based predictions.</p>
<p>To reference Watt&#8217;s article, for comparison purposes, he dialed up every rotation to the 90th percentile and in so doing demonstrated that the Blue Jays benefited more from such an escalation than all but 3 AL teams, none of whom benefit from my methodology as much as the Jays did. His findings correlates to my argument but, as I&#8217;ll explain later, is not exactly the same argument.</p>
<p>I’ve spent some part of every day the last 2 week going over these rotations and trying to look at them as a fan of that team might, without going past what I could rationally support with the equivalent data to what I used for the Blue Jays. My results increased the total of each team, and no player was downgraded.  Here are a few examples.</p>
<p>PECOTA has David Price at 3.8, yet he was 5.6 last year and preceded that with a three year average of 4.3 &#8211; so I split that (to the closest percentile) and gave him 5.1 (his 80th percentile).</p>
<p>Chris Archer was assigned 2.9, down from his 4.9 in 2015 &#8211; I went with his 80th percentile of 4.2.</p>
<p>Dallas Kuechel was given a messily 2.8 after his 6.2 in 2015 and the 4.9 recent average he brought into that season. I went with his 90th which is 4.8 as a more obvious conclusion.</p>
<p>And finally, for one non-ace example, Boston&#8217;s Eduardo Rodriguez came off of a season in which he&#8217;d put up 2.3 WARP in not quite 2/3 of a season, which pro-rates to 3.5 yet his projection is 1.1. Anything less than 2 (his 80th percentile) is underestimating him, in my opinion.</p>
<p>These are certainly random examples, but they are only offered as an illustration of how I applied the methodology to other teams. It might be said that my choices are arbitrary, and to the extent that when one interjects human opinion into the cold mathematics offered by PECOTA, arbitrariness is an ever present demon. However it is a, if you will, consistent form of arbitrariness. I went with the 80th percentile for Price and Archer for the same reason that  I did not try to max out the Blue Jays “fifth starter” figure based on a guess that it would be Sanchez and that he would excel. It’s not my intent to just guess wildly, but to adjust the figure based on what I can support safely, conservatively, from their past performance. That just so happens to be the 80th percentile for Price, but the 90th for Kuechel. The method has some inherent element of arbitrary assumptions, but it’s not being employed in an arbitrary fashion.</p>
<p>The relevant conclusion for the purpose of discussing the Blue Jays is this (you don’t REALLY want me to go into detail of what I concluded for 40 different SP that play for other teams, right?): Instead of ranking 12th among AL teams, the Jays rank 6th. Instead of being 4th in the AL East, 5 games back of the Red Sox, the division looks like this:</p>
<p>Boston &#8211; 13.1</p>
<p>New York &#8211;  12.1</p>
<p>Toronto &#8211; 11.8</p>
<p>Tampa Bay &#8211; 11.6</p>
<p>Baltimore &#8211; 7.3</p>
<p>That’s a mere 1.3 WARP swing between the Jays and the top of the division, less than 2 from the best team in the AL.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><b>In Conclusion</b></p>
<p>Here&#8217;s where I need to circle back to Rian Watt&#8217;s excellent &#8220;Life at the Margins&#8221; (which, if you haven&#8217;t read, you should definitely do so) one more time. Watt made a good point, and drew valid numerical conclusion about what happens if every team reached it&#8217;s 90th percentile level for every starting pitcher on the staff. But where my point differs, particularly concerning the Blue Jays relative to the rest of the league, is that I&#8217;m NOT assuming every pitcher, even on the Blue Jays, will do that. My argument hinges on the claim that <em>this particular</em> set of pitchers has a better argument for greatly exceeding expectations relative to their direct competition. Yes, the margin between the Blue Jays and the Red Sox only closes a little (4.3 to 3.6) if you run both staffs to the 90th as Watt did but that improvement does mitigate for my premise. But I hope I&#8217;ve illustrated that it&#8217;s more likely, based on the track record, that you can get that result out of Stroman, Dickey, and Estrada  than out of Buchholtz, Porcello, and Kelly.</p>
<p>I’ll be the first to admit that for any team, things can go horribly wrong. I’ll also readily concede that there may be a complexity here I’m not seeing, but the simply stated conclusion which I support my prediction with is this &#8211; the Blue Jays rotation, when compared to their AL counterparts, is at least league average and when it’s placed in the context of the team’s offense and defense is much more than adequate to  the task of exceeding 95 wins.</p>
<p>I am, of course, giddy with anticipation.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep 4: Turf Central with Jamie Campbell</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/25/artificial-turf-wars-ep-4-turf-central-with-jamie-campbell/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2016 10:05:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Jamie Campbell stops by to discuss Sportsnet&#8217;s Jays coverage and his favourite moments from last year, as well as to look ahead to the 2016 season. Greg, Josh, and Chris also discuss Roberto Osuna&#8217;s desire to pitch in relief, the Aaron Sanchez/Gavin Floyd fight for the fifth starter spot, Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s injury scare, Marcus Stroman [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jamie Campbell stops by to discuss Sportsnet&#8217;s Jays coverage and his favourite moments from last year, as well as to look ahead to the 2016 season. Greg, Josh, and Chris also discuss Roberto Osuna&#8217;s desire to pitch in relief, the Aaron Sanchez/Gavin Floyd fight for the fifth starter spot, Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s injury scare, Marcus Stroman for Opening day, and a few Jays retirements. Finally, the boys answer listener questions and reveal the winners of the BP Toronto fantasy league contest.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/562/show_8562505_2016_03_25_04_10_30.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/562/show_8562505_2016_03_25_04_10_30.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
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		<title>How the Blue Jays Can Emulate the Rays Pitching Success</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/21/how-the-blue-jays-can-emulate-the-rays-pitching-success/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Mar 2016 10:30:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 season opens for the Blue Jays in Tampa Bay against the Rays, and it’s an interesting coincidence, at least in the purview of this article, given the way that the new Toronto front office appears to be constructing its pitching staff. It’s certainly not a bad strategy to mimic; despite getting just 24 total [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 season opens for the Blue Jays in Tampa Bay against the Rays, and it’s an interesting coincidence, at least in the purview of this article, given the way that the new Toronto front office appears to be constructing its pitching staff. It’s certainly not a bad strategy to mimic; despite getting just 24 total starts from Alex Cobb, Drew Smyly, and Matt Moore, the Rays pitching staff allowed the fourth fewest runs in the American League in 2015. It wasn&#8217;t all defense either, as their team ERA and FIP of 3.74 and 3.91 were also fourth best in the American League. With the rotation vulnerable and the depth exposed, the Rays did exactly what any smart, analytical organization would do: <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/tampa-bay-rays-kevin-cash-pitching-change-limit-three-times-through-order-051415">they overextended their bullpen</a>. Wait, what? The underlying thought is that the Rays were cognizant of the times through the order penalty, and were ensuring that the opposition didn’t take advantage of their fatiguing depth starters who had been thrust into the spotlight.</p>
<h3>What is the times through the order penalty (TTOP)?</h3>
<p>While not actually a penalty, per se, the TTOP shows that as a pitcher faces a batter more times in a game, their performance gets worse – or from an alternative perspective, the batter’s performance improves. In late 2014, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-third-time-through-the-lineup-is-a-charm/">Brett Talley of Fangraphs</a> identified a list of candidates for potential regression based upon an unsustainable level of success as they faced batters for a third time. In the article, he laid down a nifty little table which I’m going to borrow for this piece.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-12.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-531" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-12.png" alt="Table 1" width="430" height="64" /></a></p>
<p>In short, what the above table shows is that in the first time through the order, the pitcher has a notable advantage over the batters. However, the second time through is worse, but only to the point of being a neutral matchup. Meanwhile, the third time through is nothing short of a nightmare for a starting pitcher. In the third time through the lineup, batters have an OPS that is six percent higher than their season mark, and 11 percent better than their first time through. The reasoning behind this relationship has been studied extensively, but from what I can gather, a single cause cannot be drawn out from the mess of variables. Instead, it’s likely that some combination of the pitcher tiring and the batter making adjustments from previous plate appearances contribute to the discrepancy. Still, while the origin of the effect may still be shrouded in mystery, the impact of the effect is beyond question.</p>
<p>Much of the legwork for the TTOP was done by Mitchel Lichtman when, in November 2013, he wrote a pair of articles looking at the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22156">TTOP phenomenon under the microscope</a>. At the end of the first article, Lichtman came to a number of interesting conclusions. Though he used wOBA instead of OPS to evaluate, his observations meshed with the above table, where the pitcher is better than usual the first time through, and then gets progressively worse the longer he remains in the game. He also observed that a pitcher’s career times through the order patterns are have almost no predictive value. Finally, while the wOBA values may be slightly different, both good and bad pitchers suffer from the TTOP at around the same magnitude.</p>
<p>Following the initial article, Lichtman received a lot of feedback from commenters asking how the TTOP effect may vary depending upon the <em>type </em>of starting pitcher; with specific questions around fastball usage and arsenal diversity. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22235">Once again, his observations were very interesting</a>.</p>
<p>Starting pitchers who rely almost entirely on fastballs (&gt;75 percent) had the most immediate and devastating TTOP impact, while starting pitchers who threw less than 50 perfect fastballs had the slowest and shallowest decline as a result of the TTOP. His analysis showed that batters facing fastball heavy starters improved their wOBA by 47 points the third time through, whereas batters facing the fastball light starters improved their wOBA by just 18 points over the same period. This conclusion passes the logic test, as one would reasonably expect batters to improve at a more rapid pace when their focus can be narrowed to a single pitch.</p>
<p>After focusing specifically on fastball usage, Lichtman turned to arsenal diversity, splitting pitchers into groups based upon the number of different pitches thrown more than 10 percent of the time. As expected, the overall trend was similar to that observed with fastball usage, where the starting pitchers who threw just one pitch more than 10 percent of the time had the largest decline the third time through, at 36 points of wOBA. Starters who feature two, three, and four pitches saw batters improve by 34, 28, and 24 points of wOBA, respectively, over the same interval. Perhaps the most interesting point from this arsenal diversity analysis was the timing of the aforementioned declines. The two, three, and four pitch starters were steadily worse each time through, whereas the one pitch starter was considerably worse the second time through, but saw only a minor decline in performance after that.</p>
<h3>How does the times through the order penalty apply to the 2016 rotation?</h3>
<p>Looking first at the fastball usage trend, only Aaron Sanchez (76.71 percent) eclipses the 75 percent upper threshold identified by Lichtman. Note that this usage rate is exclusively from his 11 starts in 2015; his sinker/ four seam fastball usage rate as a reliever was 84.84 percent. This suggests that Sanchez could be the most susceptible to the TTOP – more so than any other rotation candidate – and should be watched the closest as he turns a lineup over for a second or third time. For a pitcher so heavily reliant on the fastball, if the opposition starts to pick it up or he loses command and has nowhere else to turn, he could get cratered in a hurry.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ (67.17 percent) and Drew Hutchison (65.24 percent) are the most susceptible among the middle tier (between 50 and 75 percent fastballs). Happ is likely more so affected than Hutchison because his next most frequently thrown pitch is another fastball-esque offering (cutter). Conversely, Marco Estrada (52.13 percent), Gavin Floyd (52.09 percent), and Marcus Stroman (50.84 percent) are arguably the least susceptible to the TTOP of the middle tier thanks to their near-50 percent fastball reliance. Jesse Chavez is on the low end of the spectrum, as his sinker and four seam fastball usage totaled just 35.76 percent; firmly establishing the right hander in the safest group according to Lichtman’s conclusions. Batters facing Chavez-type pitchers were worse than their season average in <em>both </em>their first <em>and </em>second time through. While Sanchez-types lose 47 points in wOBA against their third time through, Chavez-types lose just 18 points – a considerable improvement. This isn’t to say that Chavez has an endless leash, but if he’s cruising through the lineup’s second trip, Gibby probably doesn’t need to have his finger hovering over the panic button in preparation for the third.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-21.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-532" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-21.png" alt="Table 2" width="843" height="267" /></a></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman stands as a man among boys under the arsenal diversity header. Even when his sinker and four seam fastball are summed into one offering, he <em>still </em>features five different pitches more than 10 percent of the time. Lichtman’s analysis didn’t expand the study to starters with five pitches, but those who throw four pitchers suffered the TTOP at the slowest rate; losing 20 points of wOBA against their third time through, whereas those who threw three, two, and one pitch(es) at least 10 percent of the time lost 22, 28, and 31 points. We saw, both in September and into the postseason, that because of his deep arsenal, Stroman can plan for lineups in entirely different ways. On September 12th against the Yankees, he went 51 percent fastballs, 22 percent curveballs, and 14 percent cutters. When Stroman faced the same lineup 11 days later, his fastball usage dropped to 37 percent, his curveball usage dropped to 3 percent, and he instead attacked with sliders (27 percent) and changeups (23 percent). Unpredictability is an asset, but the fact that Marcus Stroman can be unpredictable with five different plus pitches is what makes him a legitimate ace in the making. That&#8217;s also exactly why you should expect to see him pitch into the seventh and eighth innings regularly in 2016. At 5-foot-9, Stro is poised to be one of baseball&#8217;s strongest workhorses.</p>
<p>Once again Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ find themselves potentially wielding the short straws, but interestingly, despite their similarities, the general narrative is that they need to move in divergent directions to be successful. Sanchez is all fastballs (76.71 percent) and curveballs (14.29 percent), and most agree that he needs to continue to advance his breaking ball while also developing a reliable third pitch to shake the reliever tag. On the other hand, Happ experienced much of his recent success by basically abandoning his breaking and off-speed pitches and going hard-hard-hard with everything, which the internet has lauded and encouraged. The two theories appear to agree that among the <em>traditional </em>starting pitcher candidates on the Blue Jays roster, if Gibby’s going to go with the quick hook before a starter faces his 19th batter, it will likely be to grab Sanchez or Happ.</p>
<h3>Will the Jays consider the times through the order penalty?</h3>
<p><em>Traditional </em>was used purposefully in the previous paragraph, as the embers of this article were first sparked back in October when John Gibbons went to retrieve R.A. Dickey in the fifth inning of a game the Blue Jays were ahead 7-1. Media and fans alike were stunned, wondering (rather loudly, and to anyone who would listen) how you could pull a guy one out away from qualifying for his first postseason win, in a six run game no less. The bottom line is that Dickey faced nineteen batters, and 17-18-19 went fly out to centerfield, single to centerfield, line out to centerfield on a full count. The Rangers were on the knuckleball, and Gibbers had no interest in letting Shin-Soo Choo – who was already 2-for-2 when he strode to the plate – see it a third time.</p>
<p>Game four of the ALDS obviously means more than say, game 45 in May, so whether or not Gibbons continues to manage so aggressively with any starter is still yet to be determined. But if the organization’s offseason has been any indication, the front office is at least leaving the door open for the possibility. In order for such a philosophy to ascend from concept to reality, the roster needs to have a stable of pitchers capable of throwing multiple innings in relief. While none resulted in signings, the Blue Jays were reportedly in active pursuit of Craig Stammen, Yusmero Petit, and Joe Blanton in hopes of augmenting their bullpen, all of whom perfectly fit that criteria.</p>
<p>The seven spots in the Opening Day bullpen are still largely in flux behind the big three of Drew Storen, Brett Cecil, and Roberto Osuna. Storen and Cecil. As Table 3 below shows, in 2015, Storen and Cecil averaged 3.9 and 3.4 batters faced per appearance respectively. While I expect Osuna to be right there with Cecil holding on to small leads in the late innings, I suspect his utilization pattern will be quite different from the other two. He threw 70 innings across 68 relief appearances in 2015, and while that equates to just 4.0 batters faced per game, most, Gibby included, seem to think that number is going to rise. <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/03/17/toronto-blue-jays-drew-storen-roberto-osuna-compete-for-closer-role/81896954/" target="_blank">In USA Today</a> John Gibbons was quoted as saying,  “Osuna can give you more than one inning. Drew’s probably limited to one inning. That’s kind of who they are.” On nights where on of Storen or Cecil is unavailable, it would be unsurprising to see Osuna pitch two innings.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-3.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-533" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/Table-3.png" alt="Table 3" width="586" height="485" /></a></p>
<p>Beyond those three, the bullpen competition really opens up. Despite becoming the poster boy for meltdown innings last year, Aaron Loup almost assuredly has a leg up if his arm injury proves minor, and with his regression into a pseudo-LOOGY, he’s another one-and-done type of pitcher (3.1 batters faced per game).</p>
<p>At least one of Jesse Chavez, Gavin Floyd, Drew Hutchison, and Aaron Sanchez will find purchase as the fifth starter in the rotation, with the other three finding themselves in a battle for the bullpen. The loser(s) of the spring skirmishes, likely those with options (Sanchez and Hutchison), also face the possibility of a <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/15/290/">demotion to the rotation in Buffalo</a> as insurance. Still, this is where the roots of any philosophical shift have the potential to really take hold. All four have been starting pitchers within the last two seasons (even Floyd!), and if tasked to work in relief, could easily come into a game in the fourth, fifth, or sixth inning and turn the opposing lineup over one or one-and-a-half times before handing the lead off to one of the late-inning dynamos.</p>
<p>Most of the other remaining candidates for the final couple of spots in the bullpen also fit the mould as potential multi-inning relievers extremely well. Pat Venditte, Roberto Hernandez, Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz, and even Chad Jenkins have found varying degrees of success in baseball’s uppermost levels, facing five-plus batters per relief appearance. Even last December’s Rule 5 pick-up, Joe Biagini, feels like a legitimate option. The 24 year old has been a starter his entire minor league career, but in short bursts this spring, his fastball has been registering 95’s and 96’s on the gun, giving off the vibe that he might be the type of arm that could play up in relief when tasked with throwing twenty or thirty pitches and facing a lineup just once. Over the winter Andrew Stoeten <a href="http://andrewstoeten.com/2015/12/10/jays-select-rhp-joe-biagini-in-the-rule-five-draft/">offered forth the hypothesis</a> that the team may even see him as “Liam Hendriks 2.0”, and while, <em>no one can be Liam Hendriks</em>, it’s an interesting thought worth consideration. The periphery of the 40-man roster and the non-roster invitees also boast relief options with some length in former starter Scott Diamond and relievers Brady Dragmire, Chad Girodo, Ben Rowen, and Blake McFarland, the latter four of whom averaged 6.6, 5.3, 5.1, and 4.9 batters faced per 2015 appearance.</p>
<p>For the sake of argument, let&#8217;s envision an entirely plausible scenario in which Gavin Floyd wins the fifth spot, both Aaron Sanchez and Drew Hutchison are sent to Buffalo to stay stretched out, and Aaron Loup opens the season on the 15-day disabled list. In this case the Blue Jays head north with a bullpen comprised of Storen, Cecil, Osuna, Chavez, Venditte, Tepera, and Biagini. John Gibbons would have a dynamic mix of arms capable of handling any situation, and the length offered by the two converted starters in Chavez and Biagini would allow him to be hyper-aggressive with his bullpen and force a completely different look on opposing batters as soon as they appear to be getting comfortable with one of his starting pitchers. It would be an unprecedented approach outside of the confines of Tropicana Field, and could give the Blue Jays a much-needed edge as they battle four other strong teams in hopes of claiming their second AL East title in as many years. Mark Shapiro is known around baseball for his progressive thinking, and this might be the perfect opportunity to use that analytical mindset to directly improve the product on the field.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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