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	<title>Toronto &#187; Edwin Encarnacion</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against Cleveland</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/3-things-to-watch-for-against-cleveland/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/3-things-to-watch-for-against-cleveland/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Jul 2017 16:51:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland Indians]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Kluber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Lindor]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12520</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Cole Nefsky, and Joshua Howsam Kendrys Morales and Edwin Encarnacion are NOT really Having Similar Seasons With Toronto taking on Cleveland this weekend, the comparisons of two players inextricably tied to each other in many Blue Jays’ fans minds will face off for the second time this season: Kendrys Morales and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Cole Nefsky, and Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<h3>Kendrys Morales and Edwin Encarnacion are NOT really Having Similar Seasons</h3>
<p>With Toronto taking on Cleveland this weekend, the comparisons of two players inextricably tied to each other in many Blue Jays’ fans minds will face off for the second time this season: Kendrys Morales and Edwin Encarnacion.</p>
<p>You all know this story by now. The free agent market moved in a direction that no one (not general managers, not player agents, and not Jose Bautista) expected. The Blue Jays moved early to fill their designated hitter vacancy and signed Kendrys Morales to a three-year/$33 million contract. With the market for first base/DH types drying up, the Blue Jays franchise icon and first choice, signed a month later in Cleveland for three years and $60 million (keep in mind the deal has an option for a fourth year) – fewer years and dollars than the Jays offered at the beginning of the offseason in either case.</p>
<p>A look at more traditional stats have led some to suggest Morales (.255 AVG, 17 HR, 52 RBI) and Encarnacion (.255, 19 HR, 50 RBI) are having similar seasons. But when it comes to some of the less traditional elements of offensive production, Encarnacion has been far better than Morales in 2017.</p>
<p>When it comes to getting on base, Encarnacion’s on-base percentage is 60 points higher than Morales’. Encarnacion’s 55 walks also mean he has been on base 32 more times than Morales already this season. Encarnacion’s ability to reach base has likely contributed to more runs scored: 57 to Morales’ 43.</p>
<p>The odd thing is that Morales does hit the ball harder than Encarnacion. The Jays&#8217; current DH is in the top-25 in all of baseball in terms of average exit velocity, ahead of players like Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera with an average exit velocity of 92.1 miles per hour. EE meanwhile sits a tick above league average (87.69) at 88.68 mph. Despite his outstanding exit velocity, what seems to be limiting the damage of Morales’ hard hit balls is his groundball tendency. Morales has hit the ball on the ground 50.2% of the time this season compared to 31.9% of the time for Encarnacion. League average should be around 44%.</p>
<p>The mere fact that Kendrys Morales is the next player to occupy the DH position doesn’t mean we need to measure him against his predecessor. Morales can be better, no move is made in a vacuum and ultimately, it sure doesn’t feel like the difference between a successful and unsuccessful 2017 for the Blue Jays would be Edwin’s bat in the lineup (assuming he doesn’t play left field that is). Because of a high walk rate and his ability to keep the ball off the ground, Encarnacion has been a much more productive player than Kendrys Morales this season even with a slow start and a drop in Encarnacion’s slugging percentage. Despite what the national TV broadcast stats say Edwin is the far better offensive player. But don’t worry…because Justin Smoak is a beast now.</p>
<h3>Lost Lindor</h3>
<p>After coming out of the gate with a modified style, swinging for the fences, and clearly buying into all of the air-ball-revolution hubbub, Francisco Lindor has been pretty disappointing this season. His TAv sits at .259, a career low, which looks even worse when you consider how hot he started. There was even a point, albeit very early in the season, when Ben Lindbergh on <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1051-the-mike-trout-challengers/" target="_blank">the Effectively Wild podcast</a> addressed the question of whether or not Lindor had taken Mike Trout’s place as the top player in the league.</p>
<p>This point, though seemingly silly on its surface, was actually one well-made and worth considering. Last year, Lindor was one of the best defensive shortstops in the league with 19.3 FRAA. If you combine that with the ~.320 TAv that he had early in the year, that gives you a player with better WARP than Trout. Since then, though, Lindor hasn’t been very good at all. The two components causing this are his BABIP, sitting at .266, and his glove, worth -1.3 FRAA. That’s right, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-francisco-lindor-effect-is-ridiculous/" target="_blank">the Lindor Effect</a>, coined by Jeff Sullivan, seems to have disappeared from the world entirely.</p>
<p>Now, this means two things of note. The first is that he has been extraordinarily bad, suggesting that he has probably had some sort of skill deterioration. The other is that it is more than possible that you should expect Lindor to regress somewhat back to the mean. His .266 BABIP isn’t average, where it used to be above average. It’s not even just below average. It is downright terrible. Fielding, on the other hand, doesn’t often make 20 run true talent turnarounds between seasons. Francisco Lindor has been one of my favorite players to watch since his ascendency to the Bigs, and I hope that he returns to being that player. Just maybe after the series against the Jays.</p>
<h3>LOTS OF STRIKEOUTS</h3>
<p>It’s not real secret that the Jays aren’t designed to be a team that makes a ton of contact. Built around the expected power of guys like Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, and Russell Martin, this club was always expected to strike out at a higher than average clip. Surprisingly though, as a team they have the 12th fewest strikeouts in baseball and the sixth fewest in the American League. So as a whole, the club actually strikes out less than the average club.</p>
<p>That’s likely going to change in this series, however. The Cleveland pitching staff has had its great performances and mediocre or a bad ones, but across the board they have one thing in common: They are really good at striking hitters out; Cleveland’s staff as a whole has a K/9 of 10.03, which ranks second in baseball to the Houston Astros (10.2).</p>
<p>Typically people associate the daunting Cleveland bullpen or ace Corey Kluber with the big strikeout rate. They’d be correct of course, as Kluber, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Boone Logan all have K/9’s over 12.00, but they’re not the only sources. The Jays are lucky to miss Kluber in this series, but they’ll still have trouble with the remaining starters.</p>
<p>The Jays are likely to see the trio of Trevor Bauer (unless he starts playing with drones again), Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. Their respective K/9s: 10.1, 10.0, 12.6. That’s a LOT of swing and miss. Then if they get into the earlier parts of the Cleveland pen, the Jays will still have to deal with Nick Goody (10.4) and Zack McAllister (10.6).</p>
<p>It’ll be interesting to see how the Jays adjust to these types of arms. Salazar and Bauer can absolutely be hit hard (as evidenced by their respective ERAs of 5.40 and 5.59), but the swing and miss means Toronto will likely have trouble stringing hits together (a problem they have faced all season). This could mean more dreaded smallball (the Blue Jays are actually second in the AL in sac bunts), but in the end, to win the series the Jays will need to rely on the long ball as they have for much of the past two seasons. If they hit home runs, they have a great shot to win the series and finish the road trip at or better than .500 (they&#8217;re currently 3-4). If the ball stays in the yard, Cleveland shouldn&#8217;t have too much difficulty with Toronto.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>Now it <a href="https://twitter.com/CleveIndiansRR/status/888450667223896064" target="_blank">looks like</a> the Jays WILL face Kluber in Sunday&#8217;s finale. Yikes.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Fly Ball Revolution Has Arrived in Toronto</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Mar 2017 10:04:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9322</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2016 was an odd year for home runs; they went up by 14% between 2015 and 2016. The last time we saw so many home runs was in 2000, when the home run leaderboard looked like this. When this historic spike began to come into focus down the stretch last season, baseball writers had a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2016 was an odd year for home runs; they went up by 14% between 2015 and 2016. The last time we saw so many home runs was in 2000, when the home run leaderboard looked like <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2000-batting-leaders.shtml">this</a>. When this historic spike began to come into focus down the stretch last season, baseball writers had a field day trying to explain it. They enlisted physicists and statisticians. They said that the balls might be <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/">juiced</a>. They blamed the historically bad Reds&#8217; bullpen. They thought maybe steroids were back.</p>
<p>But when nobody could find a satisfying stats-based explanation for the long ball lunacy, a few writers began to turn to philosophy. The explanation here isn&#8217;t as easy as hitters closing their eyes and meditating about glorious dingers. According to interviews with several players, any explanation behind the power surge starts with the general shift in the Majors from a line drive-based approach to a fly ball-heavy hitting philosophy. Leading that group of players are Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, Marlon Byrd, and Justin Turner.</p>
<p>This theory has two parts. The first is that it just makes more sense to go for fly balls. In 2016, batters hit <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2016&amp;month=18&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ss&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0">.241 with a .715 slugging mark on fly balls</a> versus a .238 average and .258 slugging mark on ground balls. The second part is that when this approach turns someone like J.D. Martinez or Justin Turner into a superstar, other Major League hitters take notice and try to emulate it.</p>
<p>At Fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan and Travis Sawchik have been compiling mostly anecdotal evidence for this theory that you can read about <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/has-the-fly-ball-revolution-begun/">here</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinez-debunks-conventional-wisdom-thinks-a-tipping-point-is-near/">here</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-hitters-are-getting-off-the-ground/">here</a>. I won&#8217;t go any deeper into the weeds, because what interests me in this is Josh Donaldson&#8217;s role at the vanguard of this fly ball revolution.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just say NO&#8230;. to ground balls. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash">#MLB</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/striveforexcellence?src=hash">#striveforexcellence</a> <a href="https://t.co/6YANrOZHQE">pic.twitter.com/6YANrOZHQE</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Josh Donaldson (@BringerOfRain20) <a href="https://twitter.com/BringerOfRain20/status/837061212705812488">March 1, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>There&#8217;s that tweet, and there&#8217;s this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyWNCrxVzPU">amazing video</a> on MLB Network. You could argue that Donaldson has been the highest profile proselytiser for the fly ball approach, which makes Toronto the perfect test case for this theory. If I was a struggling bat in the Jays lineup, I would take every piece of advice I could from Donaldson. Players on the same team talk, a lot. That&#8217;s why the Rays pitchers all throw the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-power-of-pitch-lineage/">same change up</a>.</p>
<p>Now, the Jays are one of only six teams that actually hit <em>fewer</em> home runs in 2016 than in 2015. So Toronto&#8217;s offence was explosive independent of whatever mystery juice may have crept into baseball last season, but let&#8217;s see if we can find any evidence of how Donaldson&#8217;s philosophy has shaped the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>The best place to start is at the root of this philosophy: average launch angles. Unfortunately, Statcast data only goes back to 2015, so we can&#8217;t compare the pre-Donaldson Jays to the current core, but even the past two years are revealing. For starters, the team&#8217;s average launch angle rose from 8.8° to 10.5°. Here are the batters who gained the most lift on average.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-9573" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/launch-angle-gainers.png" alt="launch angle gainers" width="510" height="229" /></p>
<p>Donaldson practiced what he preached, adding 4.5° on average according to Baseball Savant. Travis and Martin had big jumps. Encarnacion had one of highest average launch angles in the league (top 20). And at the very top of the list is Smoak, who exemplifies the kind of struggling hitter who might try to seek advice from a successful hitter such as Donaldson. Seven degrees makes me want to bust out a protractor.</p>
<p>Now that we&#8217;ve identified Donaldson&#8217;s disciples, let&#8217;s see if those increased launch angles translated into more fly balls.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-9583" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/fb-gainers1.png" alt="fb gainers" width="510" height="295" /></a></p>
<p>Again, Smoak and Travis saw big increases. Somehow, Tulowitzki managed to increase his fly ball percentage by 10% despite only raising his average launch angle by 2.2°. That massive jump in FB% pushed his home run total up from 17 to 24 and raised his ISO from .160 to .189, but Tulowitzki&#8217;s slugging percentage actually remained the same due to a corresponding drop-off in doubles. This could be a sign of Tulowitzki over-emphasizing fly balls at the expense of line drives to the gaps.</p>
<p>Of those six Jays, Tulowitzki was actually the only home run gainer on a rate basis. You might expect Donaldson and Encarnacion to take small steps back after beastly 2015 campaigns, but Smoak and Travis seemed like candidates for power surges according to their FB% and launch angle gains.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="  aligncenter wp-image-9622" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/hr-gainers1.png" alt="hr gainers" width="499" height="263" /></a></p>
<p>Again, we only have average launch angle data for the past two years, but for an entire team to jump from an average 8.8° to 10.5° seem significant to me. What&#8217;s more, the team&#8217;s hard hit rate jumped from 29.7% to 33.1% while the team&#8217;s HR/FB and average exit velocity remained essentially the same. That suggests that the Jays got a little unlucky with homers in 2016.</p>
<p>It&#8217;d be interesting to talk to Tulowitzki, Smoak and Travis to see if they&#8217;ve intentionally adopted Donaldson&#8217;s fly ball heavy approach. Looking at stats can only tell us so much. Still, if those three maintain their launch angle and fly ball gains from 2016, they could be primed for juicy home run totals this year.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Half-Baked: Musings on a Frustrating Offseason for Jays Fans</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/24/half-baked-musings-on-a-frustrating-offseason-for-jays-fans/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jan 2017 11:38:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mark shapiro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8692</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Even the most optimistic Blue Jays pundit would have a hard time appreciating what&#8217;s happened so far in the Blue Jays offseason. While the recent return of Jose Bautista was a public relations balm, it&#8217;s been a net negative for the boys in blue, with Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, and Brett Cecil having skipped town, leaving [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even the <a href="https://twitter.com/FakeWilner1">most optimistic Blue Jays pundit</a> would have a hard time appreciating what&#8217;s happened so far in the Blue Jays offseason. While the <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/report-bautista-nearing-deal-with-blue-jays/">recent return of Jose Bautista</a> was a public relations balm, it&#8217;s been a net negative for the boys in blue, with Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, and Brett Cecil having skipped town, leaving holes in the lineup and the bullpen. While there&#8217;s still offseason left, the cupboard is getting bare, and the messages from the front office suggest that most of the big work is done.</p>
<p>A lot of what the Jays have done makes it seem like they&#8217;re hedging their bets for the 2017 season, trying to be just good enough to compete without making too much of a dent on their future financial ledger. This makes some sense, given the makeup of their team, and the results of the prior season: an old team lost the division when all was said and done, even if they made it to the ALCS for the second consecutive season. Boston went and added Chris Sale, fortifying a rotation that already has Rick Porcello and David Price. The Jays have countered with&#8230; Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce. Fine players in their own right, but when you&#8217;re losing Edwin Encarnacion (and Michael Saunders), they don&#8217;t seem that palatable.</p>
<p>Again, one can see the reasoning behind the Jays being frugal without a lot of mental gymnastics. As mentioned previously, the Jays were old last season. They have Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin going headlong into their mid-3os with expensive contracts after down seasons offensively. Their lineup centerpiece, Josh Donaldson, is under their control for only two more years before he&#8217;ll want his own huge deal. So Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, two fan favourites who&#8217;d been instrumental in revitalizing a moribund franchise, were treated without much sentiment by the new(ish) front office, mostly because of their own advancing athletic age.</p>
<p>The advantage of being a veteran team is having that open playoff window, an opportunity for the team to capture the biggest prize. All those great players suggest a certain level of success, one Jays fans have relished of late. The magical playoff run of 2015 (and the sequel in 2016) revitalized a city that had been mostly indifferent towards baseball since the 90s, and got fans interested and invested again. Encarnacion and Bautista were big names, names that fans know and love, players that had been established as part of the team. They bring value and familiarity to the brand that doesn&#8217;t translate especially well to a quarterly statement.</p>
<p>Wondering whether EE could have come back on the deal he got from Cleveland is a sadly academic exercise now, and one that Shapiro and Atkins probably haven&#8217;t spent much time on. They had their plan, and stuck to it, for all the good and bad that entailed. After being frugal last offseason paid off, with J.A. Happ rather than David Price in the rotation, it&#8217;s easy to see why they might have gone down that path again, striking early on a mid-range target rather than commit more large money to a lineup that&#8217;s already pretty long in the tooth. The specter of recent Phillies teams probably loomed large for Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, as they wanted to avoid the contract and prospect wasteland that the Phillies are only now starting to dig themselves out of.</p>
<p>The Jays are (probably) still looking for ways to improve. But, again, the big work is done, and the opportunities have mostly passed. Coming in second or third on a free agent like Dexter Fowler isn&#8217;t terribly useful, and having traded almost enough (or almost too much) to pry Andrew McCutchen from Pittsburgh shouldn&#8217;t keep anyone up at night. That left field spot is likely to be a competition, which is unfortunate given the options that currently exist on the roster. A first base platoon isn&#8217;t terribly exciting, especially when Justin Smoak is featured prominently. The bullpen is still a little rickety, outside of Osuna, Biagini, and maybe Grilli. Gavin Floyd and Aaron Loup are familiar, if not terribly good returnees. And they still need a backup catcher.</p>
<p>So what are we to make of this Jays team, having had a mostly forgettable offseason? Well, they were a wildcard team last year, and can probably be in that mix again this year. A lot of big names still dot the roster: Donaldson, Tulo, Bats, Russ, Travis, they&#8217;re all still around, and still pretty good. Sanchez and Stroman still have growing to do. R.A. Dickey won&#8217;t be here, which is either a plus or a minus depending on how you feel about the old knuckler.</p>
<p>As a Blue Jays fan, It&#8217;s easy to be frustrated with a front office that seemed like they were sitting on their hands. With that frustration, one can still understand why they might have done that, with eyes faced forward on a team getting old quickly. Being prudent isn&#8217;t much fun, though, especially when they were so close (twice!) to reaching the World Series. It was a long unsuccessful stretch for Jays fans, so of course we&#8217;d want to see the most successful Jays team in recent history get built up rather than left to wilt, or torn down. And the front office wants to take advantage of that success, while not jeopardizing the future of a revitalized franchise. They probably haven&#8217;t done enough yet to make this 2017 team great, but there&#8217;s still time for that to change.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 40: A Long Winter&#8217;s Nap</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/22/artificial-turf-wars-ep-40-a-long-winters-nap/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/22/artificial-turf-wars-ep-40-a-long-winters-nap/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Dec 2016 11:00:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8430</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Greg and Josh discuss the latest news surrounding Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, the extremely slow offseason, and the apparently Blue Jays strategies to fill their remaining roster holes. They also give out a Do Over, take a trip down memory lane to visit a man temporarily called Ralph, and answer a bunch of listener [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greg and Josh discuss the latest news surrounding Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, the extremely slow offseason, and the apparently Blue Jays strategies to fill their remaining roster holes. They also give out a Do Over, take a trip down memory lane to visit a man temporarily called Ralph, and answer a bunch of listener questions.</p>
<p><strong>Note:</strong> There will be no pod next week unless something extremely noteworthy happens, such as a big signing or a trade. We will return in two weeks with episode 41!</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/9/696/show_9696589_2016_12_22_04_22_15.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/9/696/show_9696589_2016_12_22_04_22_15.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
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		<title>Southern Comfort: Assessing the Blue Jays at American Thanksgiving</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/25/southern-comfort-assessing-the-blue-jays-on-american-thanksgiving/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/25/southern-comfort-assessing-the-blue-jays-on-american-thanksgiving/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Nov 2016 15:22:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Offseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Thanksgiving]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8085</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are often bought and sold as “Canada’s Team.” That’s completely acceptable; their run of success has given them inroads to capturing the hearts and minds of a whole new generation of baseball fans across the country. Even on the rare occasion that a Blue Jays game gets picked up for an American [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are often bought and sold as “Canada’s Team.” That’s completely acceptable; their run of success has given them inroads to capturing the hearts and minds of a whole new generation of baseball fans across the country. Even on the rare occasion that a Blue Jays game gets picked up for an American broadcast you’ll undoubtedly hear about how the Jays have a whole country behind them- particularly in reference to some electric Rogers Center crowds.</p>
<p>That’s something the team should wear as a badge of honor, as their rise to prominence has been no small feat. On the other hand, it does gloss over the contingent of American Blue Jays fans like myself who either have family ties to Canada or just happened to pick the team in the early stages of their baseball fandom. Consider this a shoutout to everyone else who’s checking in from south of the border.</p>
<p>Considering Canadian Thanksgiving <a title="ALDS Game 3 Recap: Blue Jays 7, Rangers 6; Tonight We Feast" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/09/alds-game-3-recap-blue-jays-7-rangers-6-tonight-we-feast/" target="_blank">produced a fairly satisfying series of events</a>, it seems right to capitalize on the American version of the holiday and take some time to reflect and appreciate some of the finer things, both large and small, concerning the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Firstly is the tangentially related Sean Rodriguez news. When rumors surfaced that the Jays were interested in Rodriguez, reaction was mostly muted approval, if not general apathy. There’s not much to dislike about picking up a capable player who can fill in all over the field. His career-year outlier seemed to make some wary, though as a hyper-versatile support player he would’ve made some sense. That being said, it’s no heartbreaking development that he’s off the market and with the Braves. Positional versatility is nice but it’s something that the team can tackle in other ways going forward. With both roster size and payroll allegedly set to expand the Jays will have ample opportunity to plug the myriad holes currently on the roster.</p>
<p>Missing out on Rodriguez, like the in-season trades for tertiary-or-lower contributors like Scott Feldman and the continuous murmur of fans questioning John Gibbons’ use of the eighth reliever, is fairly innocuous when all is said and done. Given all the lean years, I’m thankful that those are things worth fretting over from time to time. That’s not to say that the Jays can’t improve even at the furthest margins of the roster, but it does speak to how fortunate we’ve been to watch a damn good team go out and play every day for the past two seasons.</p>
<p>It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day developments of team building, particularly during the slowest parts of the offseason- if nothing else it’s a sign of the deep passion that people have for the sport and this team. Their success is worth acknowledging and celebrating, even if it requires us to step back for a second and peek at the big picture. Maybe it&#8217;s the eternal optimist in me, but it’s nice to worry about the last guy on the bench instead of finishing fourth or fifth in the division again.</p>
<p>Secondly is the recent departure of Brett Cecil. Though it’s been said by many others, I count myself lucky to have been on his side for so many years. He often bore the brunt of fan criticism when it was far from deserved and continued to go out there and do his thing. Cecil had stretches of sheer brilliance only for some fans to turn on him at the drop of a hat. Always a seemingly good soldier, I wish Brett Cecil nothing but the best in St. Louis and beyond. He won’t generate the same buzz as some of the team’s other departures, but he’s been a part of this organization for countless ups and downs and will be fondly missed.</p>
<p>There’s also the looming cloud that is the departure of team pillars Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. Not to harp on the subject too much further, but we should all be thankful for the time they spent in the organization as well as the tremendous moments that each has authored over the years.</p>
<p>We should also be thankful for the approach that Toronto’s decision makers have exhibited thus far. They don’t appear set to hamstring the team&#8217;s future by kowtowing to sentimental attachment. The Kendrys Morales move should recoup a healthy chunk of the lost production at a fraction of the cost and leaves the team with more flexibility than a megadeal would. It’ll be sad to see at least one, and probably both, of the team’s big sluggers head for richer pastures, but there’s an evident plan in place with plenty of capable personnel waiting to execute that vision. Even if the end of the era is upon us, the sky isn’t falling given that the front office just built one of baseball’s best rotations at a fantastic price and the left side of the infield is still occupied by superstars. It’ll be tough to ascend to greater heights without Bautista and Encarnacion in the lineup, but it’s just a new set of obstacles for Toronto to tackle. For fans who have sat through a lot worse, we should embrace the challenge. Better to be here than climbing up from irrelevancy.</p>
<p>Lastly, and I feel comfortable enough to speak for everyone at BP Toronto on this one, I’d like to extend my gratitude to anyone and everyone who shows up to read what we write or listen to what we have to say. On an individual level this site is an endeavor that we’ve chosen to pursue because we care deeply about the Jays, and the idea that we can spend time discussing something we all love is tremendously fulfilling. Without you that all collapses, so a heartfelt thank you for making us a part of your baseball routine.</p>
<p>The offseason can drag on for what feels like forever and while we’d all love if spring training started tomorrow, it also presents an opportunity for us to take stock of the team and the direction they’re headed. In the spirit of the holiday, there’s a lot we should be thankful for and even more to look forward to.</p>
<p>If spring training could start tomorrow though, that’d be pretty great.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Give the Blue Jays Off-Season Some Time</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/15/give-the-blue-jays-off-season-some-time/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/15/give-the-blue-jays-off-season-some-time/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Nov 2016 11:18:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mark shapiro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ross atkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7935</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins&#8217; second winter at the helm of the this club, and they are tasked with the daunting assignment of trying to appease a fanbase that is thirsty for a winner after back-to-back ALCS appearances and exits. Getting the team back to the post-season will be harder in 2017 than it [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins&#8217; second winter at the helm of the this club, and they are tasked with the daunting assignment of trying to appease a fanbase that is thirsty for a winner after back-to-back ALCS appearances and exits. Getting the team back to the post-season will be harder in 2017 than it was in previous years though, because Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are free agents, officially rejecting their qualifying offers yesterday. There are going to be a lot of narratives that emerge when we look back at this Blue Jays&#8217; off-season, and most of them will likely tie back to those two players; franchise cornerstones who will have their names on the Level of Excellence  once they finish their respective careers in the next decade. But as Jenn Smith <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/this-week-in-blue-jays/" target="_blank">discussed ever so eloquently</a> in this same space yesterday, there are other ways for the Blue Jays to go. This winter isn&#8217;t just about Jose Bautista and Encarnacion. The front office has already done their best to show us that in the opening few weeks.</p>
<p>Last year, when David Price was departing the Blue Jays, the same fan hysteria was taking place that is occupying social media now with Bautista and Encarnacion. At that time, Shapiro showed that he is able to separate business and emotion, and he let Price walk. However, before doing that, he secured back up plans. Instead of trying to replace Price, he took a page out of the <em>Moneyball</em> playbook and recreated him in the aggregate, spending money on bringing back Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ to Toronto. Both of those moves occurred early on in the off-season, before December 1st. Shapiro showed a willingness not to wait around for any one player or one team to decide what the market would look like. He got his guys at a price he liked, and pounced.</p>
<p>This winter, Shapiro and Atkins have done the same thing. They made an offer to Edwin Encarnacion, but it had an expiry date. They made it clear that they weren&#8217;t going to wait around and then be in a position to miss out on all their other options because their number one target was taking too long to make a decision. So, when Encarnacion rejected the offer &#8211; which <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-transformation-underway-two-franchise-icons-depart/" target="_blank">Shi Davidi reports</a> was around the range of four years/$80 million &#8211; the Blue Jays moved on to Kendrys Morales. That deal materialized quickly, and by Friday, reports had surfaced that the club and Morales had agreed to a three year deal with an AAV of $11 million.</p>
<p>But Kendrys Morales isn&#8217;t going to replace Edwin Encarnacion. He isn&#8217;t good enough to do that. However, just like last year, when J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada were able to replace the production of David Price, Morales will be able to do the job if he is supplemented with additional talent around him. The Blue Jays have lots of holes to fill right now. First base is open. So is a corner outfield spot. The same can be said for the backup catcher position. Morales wasn&#8217;t brought in to be Encarnacion, he was brought in to build the base of the foundation that will fill the hole Encarnacion&#8217;s likely departure has left. Compliment him with any of the plethora of options on the free agent market (Dexter Fowler, Steve Pearce, Josh Reddick, and Matt Holliday are all solid options) and suddenly, losing Edwin and Bautista doesn&#8217;t hurt the club too much, if at all. Thus, it is important to keep in mind that it is only November 15th. How many times, in off-seasons of the past, has a team stayed silent at the start of free agency only to end up as one of the &#8220;winners&#8221; of the winter? How about the opposite, when a team makes a big splash right away but does nothing else until Spring Training arrives? The baseball season is 162 games, and we tell ourselves daily from April through October to take that into consideration before making conclusions about any one team&#8217;s play. So, shouldn&#8217;t we take the same approach to the off-season, a just-as-grueling part of the calendar that isn&#8217;t won on one or two days?</p>
<p>Yes, we should.</p>
<p>The winter meetings are still close to a month away. There, some big deals will happen. The Blue Jays may or may not be in on them. However, it doesn&#8217;t necessarily matter if they are or not. If Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are leaving, good for them. They deserve to get paid, but this team doesn&#8217;t need to be the team to do that. This team needs to be the team that makes smart business decisions that allow for the roster to be just as good or better than it was in 2016, and still make financial sense. That has started with Kendrys Morales, and it will continue, be it with a big power bat or a guy who can get on base and lead off.</p>
<p>Perspectives change. Right now, it may seem like the Blue Jays are replacing Edwin Encarnacion with Kendrys Morales. But that clearly is not the case. Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins are smart people. Give them a chance to work their magic. There are plenty of different ways to skin a cat. Not every one involves the two franchise icons that are going to require the big contracts.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista Decline Qualifying Offers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/edwin-encarnacion-and-jose-bautista-decline-qualifying-offers/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/edwin-encarnacion-and-jose-bautista-decline-qualifying-offers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Nov 2016 22:59:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[qualifying offer]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7943</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As was to be expected with the Blue Jays two big sluggers, Edwin and Jose have officially declined the qualifying offers extended to them. OF Jose Bautista, 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion decline @BlueJays&#39; $17.2M qualifying offers; they are free agents. pic.twitter.com/96qKFuqk8S &#8212; MLB (@MLB) November 14, 2016 Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista were among six other [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As was to be expected with the Blue Jays two big sluggers, Edwin and Jose have officially declined the qualifying offers extended to them.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OF Jose Bautista, 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion decline <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays">@BlueJays</a>&#39; $17.2M qualifying offers; they are free agents. <a href="https://t.co/96qKFuqk8S">pic.twitter.com/96qKFuqk8S</a></p>
<p>&mdash; MLB (@MLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/798294332579213313">November 14, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista were among <a href="//twitter.com/MLB_PLAYERS/status/798291415289790465" target="_blank">six other MLB players</a> whom declined the $17.2 million qualifying offers. The only two players to accept the QO were the Phillies&#8217; Jeremy Hellickson and Mets&#8217; Neil Walker.</p>
<p>Each of Edwin and Jose have had more tumultuous beginnings in free agency than they probably would have liked. Each of their agents have floated the idea that the pair would like to return to Toronto, but that&#8217;s come with little reaction from the Blue Jays. Instead, GM Ross Atkins went out and signed Kendrys Morales to a three year, $33 million contract; all but signally that Edwin&#8217;s days are likely done in Toronto.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m sure it didn&#8217;t help that Edwin Encarnacion and his agent had been floating ambitions of a five year, $125 million deal, despite not having a particularly clear suitor. As such, the Jays aren&#8217;t waiting around.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll likely see stories in the ensuing months linking Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista to Toronto, but it seems increasingly likely that the Blue Jays will go another direction with their dollars. Of the pair, Bautista seems like the more likely candidate to return, as he&#8217;ll cost less after a down season and could fill in at first base and in the outfield.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jeff Griffith-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: Don&#8217;t Be Beholden to Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/this-week-in-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/this-week-in-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Nov 2016 11:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7908</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amidst rumours regarding their top two free agents that had been swirling all week, the Toronto Blue Jays signed designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33-million contract on Friday in a move that many believe effectively ends their pursuit of Edwin Encarnacion. The surprise signing came at the end of a week during which [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Amidst rumours regarding their top two free agents that had been swirling all week, the Toronto Blue Jays signed designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33-million contract on Friday in a move that many believe effectively ends their pursuit of Edwin Encarnacion.</p>
<p>The surprise signing came at the end of a week during which everyone from the front office to agents had added to the noise surrounding the Jays’ interest in and pursuit of re-signing Encarnacion and Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>As is their job, Paul Kinzer and Jay Alou, who are Encarncion’s and Bautista’s agents respectively, have both been vocal with the local media. Kinzer has been adamant that his client wishes to return to the Jays, stating that Toronto is Encarnacion’s preferred destination. While the reported asking price for Encarnacion is believed to be a whopping $125 million over five years, Bautista’s camp appears more flexible given the offensive downturn during his injury-plagued 2016 season. Alou has gone as far as stating that Bautista feels as though he has “unfinished business” in Toronto and is willing to play a myriad of positions, suggesting that perhaps there has been little interest in him on the open market.</p>
<p>While Jays’ general manager Ross Atkins has insisted that re-signing Encarnacion is a priority and reportedly made a push to do so, he stated in an interview on Tuesday that, “offers often times come on and off tables”, suggesting that perhaps whatever offer had been extended had an expiration date – which, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, has <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-begin-lineup-retooling-effort-morales-signing/" target="_blank">been confirmed by sources</a>.</p>
<p>While there are some in Toronto’s fan base who will interpret this as the front office walking away from negotiations, this was a bold tactical move on the part of the Jays, who have effectively situated themselves in the negotiation drivers’ seat. With a relatively weak free agent class and several on-field needs that must be addressed this offseason, the Jays cannot afford to sit around and wait while Encarnacion engages with other suitors – which, of course, he <em>should</em> do, given that this is his one shot at a long-term lucrative deal. But, that doesn’t mean the Jays should wait for him to make his decision before pursuing alternatives.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that Morales is the answer to what ails the Jays. The thirty-three year old Morales had a slash line of 263/.327/.468 with 30 home runs and for Kansas City last season, which is home to one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. In twenty-eight career games (105 at-bats) played at the Rogers Centre, Morales has hit .276/.330/.438 with an OPS of .769.</p>
<p>While he certainly will not replace the offensive production of Encarnacion, who hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 home runs last season, he provides a modicum of lineup flexibility in that he is a switch-hitter with relatively equal career splits from either side of the plate. The downside is that he is incredibly slow – he has stolen just four bases during his decade in the majors – and is not an option to play the field, even at first base.</p>
<p>What is of greater importance, however, is that if signing Morales does indeed signify the end of the Encarnacion era in Toronto, the Jays have managed to replace some of that offense at a fraction of the price, providing them with the flexibility to pursue other needs, such as two corner outfielders.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that the Blue Jays are completely out on Encarnacion. <a href="https://twitter.com/rwesthead/status/797554651734409217%20" target="_blank">Rick Westhead of TSN quoted</a> Paul Kinzer yesterday as saying that the two sides were still talking and that both sides consider Encarnacion to be a first baseman, thus signing Morales does not preclude them from signing Edwin.</p>
<p>The question is, <em>should</em> they sign Edwin. Based purely on offensive statistics, the answer is an unequivocal yes. He is the best bat on the free agent market and his 99 runs scored plus 127 runs driven in represent 29.8% of the team’s 759 runs last season. Given that a lack of run production is what cost them a shot at the World Series, the Jays can ill-afford to squander run production. And, considering the black hole that is Justin Smoak at the plate, the Jays are going to need at the very least a platoon first baseman. Re-signing Encarnacion would solve these two problems with one fell swoop.</p>
<p>However, Edwin’s reported asking price of $25 million for each of the next five seasons is, in a word, steep. As <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-begin-lineup-retooling-effort-morales-signing/" target="_blank">Davidi points out</a>, the Jays currently have $117.3 million guaranteed to ten players next season, which will end up closer to $123.2 million including arbitration projections. They began 2016 with a payroll of approximately $134 million, which rose to approximately $148 million by the end of the season. Mark Shapiro has all but stated openly that they have more payroll to work with for the 2017 season, and one can reasonably expect the opening day payroll in 2017 to be north of $155 million. That leaves roughly $33 million to allocate towards the corner outfield positions, first base, a backup catcher and bullpen pieces.</p>
<p>The notion that the Jays should simply shell out whatever it takes to retain Encarnacion is reckless.  Whether fans like it or not, baseball is a business. And, like all businesses, there is a budget. It’s fine to believe that the payroll should be within the top five in baseball – the fact that the Jays surpassed three million people in attendance last season certainly suggests that to be true – but that negates the reality of corporate ownership. It also ignores the fact that payroll is not necessarily indicative of success. Cleveland, for instance, was twenty-first in payroll last season but was top five in runs scored. And, given the fact that no other team has offered Encarnacion what he&#8217;s hoping to get, including the Boston Red Sox, who were thought to be a likely destination for the aging slugger, one can assume that it isn&#8217;t just the Jays who value him differently than he values himself.</p>
<p>There are many fans who, of course, want Encarnacion to return because of his sentimental value. He’s “our” guy; affable and humble while hitting bombs and running around the bases sporting the Edwing. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball, and he <em>loves</em> Toronto; he wants to <em>stay</em> in Toronto. That’s all well and good, but the bottom line is he wants to get <em>paid</em>. And, that’s fine; he deserves to get paid, but not at the expense of whatever else the team still needs to do. As written by Davidi, Mark Shapiro, “made it clear there’s a balance to be drawn between a player’s past meaning to a club and his future worth.” In other words, one cannot get caught up in what a player has accomplished in the past when evaluating his worth in the future. While Encarnacion may continue to be productive over the next two or three years, in all likelihood, the team would have to eat his salary in the last year or two as he&#8217;s on the decline. That&#8217;s fine if ownership wants to be in the top five in payroll; Shapiro has made it clear that that&#8217;s not the case.</p>
<p>To re-sign Encarnacion to the detriment of what else this team needs to accomplish this season would be foolish. Instead, the Jays can spend wisely and allocate their money towards players who will not only provide roster flexibility, but whose contracts will not outlive their productive value. The Jays are said to be <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/797128453690720256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">kicking tires on both</a> Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick, both of whom would fulfill their outfield needs while providing a different look at the plate (Fowler is a switch-hitter, while Reddick is a lefty).  Meanwhile, they are <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/797489616517533696" target="_blank">rumoured as being interested in</a> Steve Pearce as a guy to platoon with Smoak at first base.</p>
<p>With that in mind, consider this: the Jays could also re-sign forgotten man Jose Bautista to play first base at a relatively reasonable cost.</p>
<p>The bottom line is, the front office has an obligation to field the best team possible within the confines of their budget. Fans most certainly have their favourite players, with Encarncion chief among them. But, there&#8217;s a bottom line, both in terms of what the team is willing to spend on a particular player, and in terms of what a fan ultimately wants. I think it&#8217;s safe to say that, as a fan, the bottom line is for the Jays to field a winning team. If they can do that without re-signing Edwin Encarnacion, then all will be forgiven.</p>
<p>Because, let&#8217;s face it. This fan base has had its favourites. The Carols Delgado&#8217;s and Roy Halladay&#8217;s have come and gone, and yet, the fans still flock to the field. Why? Because this fan base wants to support a winning team, regardless of who puts on the uniform. Win, and the fans will flock to the field. Win, and they will buy the merchandise. Win, and this city will engage in celebrations that will surpass those of twenty-three years ago.</p>
<p>I want Edwin to remain a Blue Jay. I really do. But, not at all costs. Not at the cost of all the other holes this team needs to fill. I will applaud this team if they can fit Encarnacion into their budget.</p>
<p>But, I will cheer louder if this team can win, regardless of who steps on the field on Opening Day.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jeff Griffith-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Report: Blue Jays Qualify Bautista and Encarnacion, Decline to Offer Saunders</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/07/report-blue-jays-qualify-bautista-and-encarnacion-decline-to-offer-saunders/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/07/report-blue-jays-qualify-bautista-and-encarnacion-decline-to-offer-saunders/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Nov 2016 22:12:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[qualifying offer]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7803</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays qualifying offer decisions came down today, and if you were hoping for some big surprise to get you excited about the Jays, you were probably a little disappointed. #BlueJays extend qualifying offers to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. No offer for Michael Saunders. &#8212; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) November 7, 2016 As predicted [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays qualifying offer decisions came down today, and if you were hoping for some big surprise to get you excited about the Jays, you were probably a little disappointed.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> extend qualifying offers to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. No offer for Michael Saunders.</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/795748347386724353">November 7, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>As predicted most everywhere, both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion received offers. They will have one week to make their decisions, but the two sluggers are basically locks to reject the offers. Even with Bautista&#8217;s down year, they are two of the premier bats in this somewhat shallow free agent market and should easily be able to get multi-year contacts. The Jays will likely make some attempt to sign both, though how hard they will try is yet to be determined. The team has lots of holes and both those players will cost a lot of money.</p>
<p>In a similarly predictable situations, Brett Cecil, R.A. Dickey, and Gavin Floyd did not receive qualifying offers from Toronto. They had varying degrees of success, but none would be worth a 1 year, $17.2M commitment (the value of this year QO). Scott Feldman, Dioner Navarro, and Joaquin Benoit were ineligible to receive offers (though they would not have anyway), as they were traded mid-season.</p>
<p>The only real question mark was Michael Saunders. If you just dropped in at the end of the season and looked at his overall line of .253/.336/.478 with a career-best 140 games played, you could make a very good argument that he would be worth the QO, even with a large dip in his defensive value.</p>
<p>Of course, we haven&#8217;t just dropped in. We&#8217;ve all been paying attention, and Saunders&#8217; season has been one of two very different halves. In the first half, Saunders looked like a lock to receive a qualifying offer, reject it, and then score a large deal in free agency. After all, he hit .289/.372/.551, including a .301/.383/.614 line against lefties, and earned a spot on the American League All-Star team.</p>
<p>In the second half, it was as though Saunders was a completely different player. His overall line fell to .178/.252/.387 and he became barely playable. He did continue to play better against lefties than righties, with a line of .199/.276/.423 against same-sided arms, but he was just hopeless for long stretches of play. The team was left with the question of &#8220;which is the real Saunders?&#8221; and the answer is probably neither of them. He isn&#8217;t the All-Star, and he isn&#8217;t the bench player he looked like at the end. But no matter what he is, there was just too much risk to provide him with an offer.</p>
<p>With teams able to talk to everybody starting Tuesday, the long free agent slog is finally ready to begin.<br />
<em><br />
Lead Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Saying Goodbye to an Unexpected Era</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/31/saying-goodbye-to-the-unexpected-era/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/31/saying-goodbye-to-the-unexpected-era/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Oct 2016 14:42:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Season That Was]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7724</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I was about a month old when the Blue Jays last won the World Series. It’s been mostly downhill since. Cursed with the burden of rooting for Toronto’s teams while growing up around New York and spending my college years in Boston, it’s been two decades of watching everyone else and their teams celebrate various [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was about a month old when the Blue Jays last won the World Series. It’s been mostly downhill since.</p>
<p>Cursed with the burden of rooting for Toronto’s teams while growing up around New York and spending my college years in Boston, it’s been two decades of watching everyone else and their teams celebrate various stupid championships. It hasn’t been ideal, and I have the Frank Thomas jersey in my closet to prove it.</p>
<p>Technically the Jays have reached the summit in my lifetime. I obviously have no recollection of the moment. Truthfully, it’d be cheap to count it. It wouldn’t have been earned.</p>
<p>The last two seasons might not have brought the same pinnacle of success but there’s a certain exhilaration that the Toronto Blue Jays have brought to the surface for me. Last season’s first ALDS game against the Rangers was literally the first time that I, as well as hundreds of thousands (and possibly millions) of Jays fans, got to see playoff baseball in Toronto. Given everything that had preceded it in my baseball-conscious lifetime, it seemed insane. Maybe it was. Maybe it’ll always feel that way because of the way things played out.</p>
<p>They finally put it together after years of collecting interesting groups of players that produced the same third and fourth place results. No season ever goes to plan, and that’s been readily apparent in the wild run that the Blue Jays have been on since 2015. Perhaps it’s the mental conditioning of seeing so many seasons reach the same disappointing end or hanging around in the same division as baseball’s biggest money wielders that set the bar for performance. Regardless, the Blue Jays are set to say goodbye to an era of the unexpected.</p>
<p>It’s tough to pinpoint when this all kicked off, though Alex Anthopulous’s acquisition of Jose Reyes, Mark Buerhle and Josh Johnson seems like a good start. Following it up with reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey only increased anticipation. For the first time in a long time, the Blue Jays were favorites. When the Jays were finally expected to run roughshod through the AL East, they faltered. We zigged, the team zagged. For all the hoopla surrounding the team, the fondest memories may be of Munenori Kawasaki and his cult hero status.</p>
<p>But maybe it goes back before all that. After all the run of success is built upon Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion turning into <em>Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion</em>. A journeyman and a salary dump turned this thing around. That’s pretty cool.</p>
<p>Then there’s Anthopolous’ ninja acquisitions of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. My simple mind could barely comprehend acquiring one of the game’s best players, let alone three within a year. A year whose signature moment was built on a throw back to the mound that bounced off Shin-Soo Choo’s bat. And that includes Toronto’s first AL East Division title in a long while, only for the mastermind behind the moves to depart during the honeymoon phase.</p>
<p>This past year gave us more unexpected happenings. The team had just put up an offensive performance that rivaled the best in baseball history. So of course they struggled to consistently put up runs and left games in the hands of a strong pitching staff. A staff who faced tons of questions and merely needed to be “good enough” at the outset of the season wound up being <a title="Building the AL’s Best Pitching Staff on a Budget" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/25/building-the-als-best-pitching-staff-on-a-budget/" target="_blank">the league’s best on a budget</a>. The perceived weak spot was the thing that saved Toronto’s season. Even the staunchest believers in Estrada, Happ and Sanchez wouldn’t have banked on that kind of collective performance.</p>
<p>We’ve heard about <a title="On Michael Saunders and Defying Expectations" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/24/on-michael-saunders-and-defying-expectations/" target="_blank">Michael Saunders defying expectations</a>. There’s also Joe Biagini, the Rule V pick that actually panned out. All the moves made to bolster the bullpen last offseason made a fair amount of sense, and yet the new arrivals failed spectacularly. The team sought out fixes and nailed every single one. Then there’s the fact that one of those fixes tore his calf running into a brawl. You can’t predict baseball, truly.</p>
<p>Despite that, the safe prediction is that at least one of Bautista or Encarnacion will be reporting to someplace other than Dunedin when camp opens. Placing the baseball decision concerns aside, that stinks. It almost certainly doesn’t make sense to fork over the money it would take to keep the band together, which is something that everyone seems to have accepted. From an emotional standpoint, it’ll be a strange sensation.</p>
<p>For the nebulous timestamps that mark the beginning and ending of this part of Blue Jays lore, I’d be remiss to not recognize this as Bautista’s team or Edwin’s team. It won’t be the same next year. It’ll be a new look team in a few ways, and they should be fine going forward. There will be fewer big bats, the Blue Jays have completed a quick turnaround and will now remain competitive on the back of a truly phenomenal pitching staff. Who would’ve guessed that a year ago?</p>
<p>That&#8217;s great. A lot of people thought the Jays might need to reset a bit following the ravages of the upcoming offseason, but it&#8217;s looking more and more like Shapiro and his management team have found a way to cut the line and get right back into things. I can&#8217;t wait for next season to start, but, sentimentally, I don’t think I’m ready for this version of the team to be finished. I don’t think I’m alone in that corner either.</p>
<p>No team’s good fortune ever comes solely from a plan coming together. Every successful season has a few good bounces. It just feels like Toronto’s have come from a crazy confluence of events. I suppose that deep down, we all assumed the Blue Jays would compete eventually, but not like this, on the back of so many unforgettable personalities and unbelievable stories. Riding this roller coaster, even if it ends just shy of the World Series, has been worth the price of admission. The Jays’ success feels earned this time around. To have experienced the full climb to relevancy makes this part of Blue Jays history extremely special, perhaps even more so because of all the pleasant surprises along the way.</p>
<p>As for truly unexpected, the Blue Jays are now a baseball <em>thing</em>. Something to talk about. Something to be loved and hated in equal measure, depending on where you&#8217;re from. Toronto is a baseball destination. The next wave is looking just fine, but the unexpected era authored Toronto’s baseball revival.  This era, even if it’s seen its conclusion, has been something to remember. Not like you could forget it if you tried.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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