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	<title>Toronto &#187; Darwin Barney</title>
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		<title>The Problem with the Blue Jays&#8217; Second Base &#8220;Solution&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/the-blue-jays-and-their-second-base-problem/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/the-blue-jays-and-their-second-base-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jun 2017 10:08:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Leblebijian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11876</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of them have struggled offensively. With Devon Travis looking like he will be out for the remainder of the season after knee surgery, the bulk of playing time has gone to the likes of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney, two players who are less inspiring with the bat than Sam Dyson is on the mound against Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>Obviously, the Blue Jays cannot continue to run those players out onto the field everyday and expect to receive production. John Gibbons has told the media that they will continue to shuffle them into and out of the lineup until one of them gets hot and takes control of the position full time. While Gibbons falling prey to the notion that a batter who is hot will continue to be hot is a concern, the larger concern is that he is actually correct that at the moment, that scenario is the Blue Jays&#8217; best option.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s June 19th, and with another six weeks before the MLB Trade Deadline, teams are not willing to make big deals because so much can change in the standings before July 31st. Before Sunday&#8217;s games started, just five games separated last place in the American League and a playoff spot. Giving up on the season at this point for a club that is that close to a playoff spot is not a good look.</p>
<p>While the Blue Jays are looking for trade partners to fix their second base situation, it just isn&#8217;t possible at the moment. A club source said that they are trying to focus on buying players to help fill the holes in left field, second base, and in the bullpen, but instead are getting calls on Roberto Osuna (the Nationals keep trying) and Josh Donaldson (the Cardinals are one of those teams). The Blue Jays had internal discussions about New York Mets second baseman Neil Walker according to the same source, but now that he has been placed on the disabled list with a torn left hamstring, those conversations are moot until at least the All-Star Break. All of these trade discussions are in their preliminary stages, as most deals won&#8217;t be consummated until the end of July, so that really leaves the Blue Jays with only one other option to Barney and Goins, and that is in the form of Jason Leblebijian.</p>
<p>The case to call up Leblebijian from the Buffalo Bisons has been made across the internet for weeks, even by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/10/jason-leblebijian-is-the-answer-to-the-blue-jays-middle-infield-problem/" target="_blank">our own Elie Waitzer</a>. The argument goes that Barney and Goins have been so bad in 2017, that Leblebijian, who is batting .306/.375/.500, has to be able to be better than them if given the opportunity at the big league level. Elie even compared Leblebijian&#8217;s numbers to Dansby Swanson&#8217;s to strengthen his case, and came away with a strong argument that Leblebijian would in fact be an upgrade over Goins and Barney. However, the flaw in this argument, and all the other ones that support calling Leblebijian up from the minors to be given the starting job, is that the Blue Jays are aware of the talent possessed by all three players. I&#8217;d even go as far as suggesting that they are more aware of Leblebijian&#8217;s ability, along with Goins&#8217; and Barney&#8217;s, than we as fans are.</p>
<p>ZiPS rest of season projections project Darwin Barney for a .620 OPS for the rest of the season, and Ryan Goins for a .595 OPS. Although those numbers are astonishingly terrible, the Blue Jays and their talent evaluators don&#8217;t seem to believe Leblebijian would be able to top them at the big league level. The obvious move for months now has been to call up Leblebijian and give him playing time at second base. Clearly, the Blue Jays would have made that move already if they believed it to be the right one. However, even from only viewing his stats, there are reasons to be skeptical of Leblebijian&#8217;s AAA success &#8211; his .363 BABIP comes to mind as the most glaring one. Combine that with scouts who see Leblebijian often, it starts to make a lot more sense as to why he is still in Buffalo and not a couple of hours north at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>In 2013, the Buffalo Bisons had an infielder named Jim Negrych. From April until the end of June, Negrych was tearing the cover off of the ball, batting .332/.398/.475. Throughout those three months, sections of fans were clamouring for him to be called up to replace the messy combination of Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis. The Blue Jays did not make a move, and Negrych, who at the time was 28-years-old and never played in the big leagues, ended the season by hitting .203/.295/.225 from July through September. I&#8217;m not saying the 26-year-old Jason Leblebijian is Jim Negrych, but there were reasons why the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t call Negrych up then, and there are reasons why the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t calling up Leblebijian now.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s tough to watch Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney play everyday and continue to look like they are completely overmatched. However, there truly is no better option at this point, so we just have to sit and wait until the Blue Jays are able to upgrade next month, which, if they are still in the race, seems almost guaranteed to happen. Until then, when you see the second baseman coming up to bat, avert your eyes and take your mind to a happy place.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Enhanced Frustration of Familiar Blue Jays Problems</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2017 13:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse when it&#8217;s the exact same issues year over year.</p>
<p>This Blue Jays team is remarkably unchanged from the version that we saw on Opening Day one year ago. Among the 14 spots in the starting lineup and rotation, there have been just three changes: Kendrys Morales has replaced Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Liriano pitches instead of R.A. Dickey, and Michael Saunders has shrunk a few inches while simultaneously either being a little pudgier or becoming a lot more Venezuelan. Oh sorry, that&#8217;s Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>As such, not only have the flaws of certain Jays players been exposed early on, but those flaws could have been predicted or addressed, in some cases. In other cases it&#8217;s just a player who, while good, is not perfect, and their imperfections have shone through.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Unaddressable</h3>
<h4>Marco Estrada&#8217;s Changeup Digs the Long Ball</h4>
<p>In most cases, Marco Estrada uses his tightly spun changeup to dazzle hitters into hitting perfectly placed in field pop ups. That&#8217;s a large part of what&#8217;s made him so incredibly effective over the last two seasons. However, on Sunday April 9th against the Rays, that was not at all the case. Estrada lasted five innings in that start, but was peppered by Rays hitters for three home runs on the night.</p>
<p>The first home run was hit by the Rays&#8217; Corey Dickerson in the bottom of the third. The changeup was <a href="http://i.imgur.com/ZxGDI5C.png" target="_blank">up and in</a>, but Dickerson got just enough of it to dink the ball over the short wall in the left field corner at Tropicana field. You can cut Marco Estrada some slack on this one. Per <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a>, it had a true distance of just 326 feet and wouldn&#8217;t have been a home run in any other park in the majors.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171.jpg"><img class="wp-image-10184 size-medium alignnone" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171-300x295.jpg" alt="tropicanafield_2017_171" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>The Path of Dickerson&#8217;s HR via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/hrdetail.php?id=2017_171" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>Unfortunately the homer troubles didn&#8217;t end there. After a Kevin Kiermaier triple and a Brad Miller walk, Steven Souza Jr. hit his own homer to left field, once again off of a changeup that Estrada left <a href="http://i.imgur.com/JbXIrme.png" target="_blank">up and over the plate</a>. A weak ground ball to first base got Marco Estrada out of the inning, but there was still more to come. In the bottom of the fourth, after going down 0-2, Jesus Sucre hit a home run off of, you guessed it, an Estrada changeup.</p>
<p>Estrada’s hasn’t always struggled with home runs off his changeup, but his propensity to give up home runs in general is the worst part of his game. His 1.18 HR/9 ranked 29th worst among qualified pitchers in 2016. Yet Marco Estrada&#8217;s changeup is his bread and butter pitch. Because it&#8217;s so good and because this is only a single start, it&#8217;s really not worth worrying about, but it&#8217;s certainly frustrating.</p>
<h4>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s Achilles Heel</h4>
<p>Josh Donaldson is a notoriously robust baseball player and he&#8217;s played in more than 155 games in each of the last four seasons. However, the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/josh-donaldson-vikings-history-canada-1.3941918" target="_blank">viking-esuqe star</a> has a Greek flaw, but it&#8217;s in his calf rather than his heel. On Sunday, Donaldson pulled up after running out a ground ball. Donaldson had to be removed from the game and missed the Blue Jays&#8217; home opener (save for a 9th inning pinch hitting appearance) as a result of what the team is calling a calf injury. This isn&#8217;t the first time that he&#8217;s had calf issues either. In the Blue Jays first series at Tropicana Field in 2016, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-josh-donaldson-exits-game-rays/" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson limped his way to first base</a>, which also resulted in his being pulled from the game and getting diagnosed with a calf injury. The best predictor of a lack of injuries in the future is a lack of injuries in the past. Donaldson shouldn&#8217;t have too many nagging issues going forward, but it sure sucks when there&#8217;s even a chance of losing the player who&#8217;s <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2023770">posted more value than the rest of your lineup combined</a>.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Clearly Addressable</h3>
<h4>Ryan Goins&#8217; Existence on the Blue Jays Active Roster</h4>
<p>For some reason, Ryan Goins is still here. Personally, I have nothing against Ryan Goins, but I&#8217;ve yet to see any strong argument for his continued presence in Toronto. Following the team&#8217;s choice of Goins over Melvin Upton Jr., Gideon Turk <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/">wrote that it was Goins&#8217; flexibility and fit for the team&#8217;s present roster construction that forced the Blue Jays hand</a>. While that answer makes sense in a vacuum, no roster needs two no-hit middle infielders on the bench, especially not when one of the two is MLB’s worst hitter. In some ways, the Blue Jays have proved that as Goins and Barney have split playing time, neither having being used in the same game. Even in the Blue Jays home opener, a game in which Ryan Goins started at 3B, the team found no need to use the second middle infielder on the bench. Instead, all we saw were three paltry plate appearances and one miraculous walk. Had there not been two middle infielders on the bench, someone palatable could have pinch hit for one of the Jays&#8217; light hitters. There’s no need for both players. Now only if the Blue Jays would see it.</p>
<h4>The Belief that Justin Smoak Starting at 1B is Ok</h4>
<p>In spite of his once immaculate prospect status, Justin Smoak has not been a great major league player. In fact <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=2800&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=1950&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=21,a" target="_blank">very few first basemen have been as bad as Justin Smoak has</a>, while getting as much major league playing time. That trend hasn&#8217;t changed much in 2017, as he has only continued to strike out at what seem to be the Blue Jays most opportune run scoring moments. Additionally, his hitting performance is not the only issue with his starting at 1B. He has also forced Steve Pearce in to the confines of left field. Steve Pearce is a versatile player, but he&#8217;s by no means an ideal defensive left fielder and he&#8217;s shown that so far this season. The only reason he continues to be forced out there is Justin Smoak&#8217;s presence at first base and on the Blue Jays payroll.</p>
<p>Some have continued to argue that the Blue Jays <em>must </em>have some advanced metric that tells them Smoak&#8217;s true first base defense is not only better than the publicly available defensive metrics say, but good enough to offset his being one of MLB&#8217;s worst hitting first basemen. Given that no other team has recently employed or even attempted to employ a defense first starting 1B, I find that hard to believe. With Pearce&#8217;s versatility, Jose Bautista&#8217;s previous first base experience, and Melvin Upton&#8217;s ability to play all three outfield positions, the Blue Jays had a chance to fix first base. Yet, once again, they squandered it, and they&#8217;ve been rewarded with strikeout after strikeout ever since.</p>
<h3>The Future</h3>
<p>As was noted earlier in this piece, everything that could have gone wrong for the Blue Jays, has gone wrong for the Blue Jays. There&#8217;s no greater evidence of that than their current 1-6 record; the team&#8217;s <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-off-to-worst-start-in-team-history-after-dropping-home-opener-to-milwaukee-brewers-4-3" target="_blank">worst ever start to a season</a>. But it will get better and it&#8217;d be nearly impossible for it not to. That doesn&#8217;t make any of the team&#8217;s current problems, addressable or otherwise, any less frustrating. If one were to see any of the aforementioned issues once it&#8217;d be unfortunate. To see the same issues crop with the same players a year later is even worse. However, it&#8217;s also incredibly easy to see the negatives when the team has only won one game. Once the Blue Jays start dominating again, the addressable woes will be forgotten. That&#8217;s the Blue Jays team we need and the Blue Jays team that we deserve. Until then, the <a href="https://twitter.com/dlbno/status/851979226920001537" target="_blank">barrage of critical tweets</a> are a little more appropriate.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What Would it Cost To Have Ryan Goins&#8217; Glove on the Roster?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/27/what-would-it-cost-to-have-ryan-goins-glove-on-the-roster/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/27/what-would-it-cost-to-have-ryan-goins-glove-on-the-roster/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Mar 2017 11:01:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9778</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Once again, it&#8217;s crunch time around the MLB spring camps. Rosters must shrink to 25 men by opening day, and although injuries can change things at the last minute, front offices are whittling the numbers down every day. Some players have options, some others have opt outs. Eventually, the game of musical chairs will end, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once again, it&#8217;s crunch time around the MLB spring camps. Rosters must shrink to 25 men by opening day, and although injuries can change things at the last minute, front offices are whittling the numbers down every day. Some players have options, some others have opt outs. Eventually, the game of musical chairs will end, and some players will be left without anywhere to sit.</p>
<p>Up until a week or so ago, Ryan Goins looked like he was madly circling the chair with the &#8220;Infield Bench&#8221; sign hung off the back. He could do this because Devon Travis was restricted to stretching and BP, still nursing a bone bruise from offseason knee surgery. Now that Travis is able to get up and participate in this metaphorical party game, Goins is much further from a chair being his on opening day, as Darwin Barney has a pretty solid claim to it. Of course, Goins is now out of options after parts of four seasons with the big club, and that means he will hit the waiver wire before he can grab a seat in Buffalo. All this has stirred up the nostalgia of the Ryan Goins fans out there in Jays nation.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure where this nostalgia comes from, since his most successful time in the big leagues has been a month where he practically stopped swinging the bat, (for reference I speak of August 2015- .314/.442/.443 with 22hits, 16K/16BB), and we haven&#8217;t seen anything like it since. His .228 OBP in 2016 doesn&#8217;t make me nostalgic, it makes me nauseous. Maybe nostalgia stems from the fact that he&#8217;s a career Blue Jay, which counts for something in some people&#8217;s minds. Those nice folks will also often point to Ryan Goins glove as the thing you have to love and remember and love about him.</p>
<p>And that got me to thinking&#8230;. what can we learn about Ryan Goins glove before he is cast out into the swells of the waiver wire ocean? There are a lot of fielding metrics out there, and I&#8217;ve learned that they are all mystifying and nearly useless in small samples. Luckily, I&#8217;m not overly concerned here with how much &#8216;value&#8217; in terms of &#8216;wins&#8217; Ryan Goins or Darwin Barney is providing here. The question I&#8217;m curious about is whether there are enough opportunities in a season for there to be a love affair with Goins defense.</p>
<p>Of course, its not just a glove, it&#8217;s the arms, torso and legs attached to it that a great fielder make. Let us compare the record of the three bodies that might occupy second base for the Jays in 2017 and see how often they might make difference that we will remember.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m using Inside Edge data from <a href="http://fangraphs.com" target="_blank">FanGraphs</a>. It uses info from their scouts to divide plays into buckets ranging from impossible &#8211; (0% of times the play is completed when the ball is hit in similar circumstances) to Routine (90-100% of times the play is made). If a player makes the 40-60% catergory play around 50% of the time, he&#8217;s been average. If he makes it 80% of the time, he&#8217;s been extremely effective. In the Inside edge data, we get a percentage and, also very impotantly, a raw count of plays made. This is exactly what I want to know. Sure, anyone can make an impossible play, but if it really is just once in a whole season, is it worth waiting around for?</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start with Devon Travis, the presumptive starter at second base. I&#8217;m going to use career numbers, just to keep this simple, unless otherwise noted. Travis has 1369.2 innings at second, which is like a very busy full time season&#8217;s worth of plays (1458 innings available in a season with only 9 inning games). He makes 98.3% of the Routine plays, 67% in the Likely (60-90) bucket, 53.3% in the Even (40-60) bucket, 25% in the Unlikely (10-40) bucket and has never made a Remote or Impossible play. If you look at those numbers, Travis has been an almost prototypically average fielder. He&#8217;s in the middle of all the ranges for all the more common types of play, and he&#8217;s never pulled of a miracle in the field.</p>
<p>Now we look at Darwin Barney, who has three full seasons (4601 innings) of work at second, and was able to stick at second base in the NL based on the quality of his defense. He&#8217;s at 98.9% routine, 85.9% Likely, 61% Even, 33% Unlikely, 7.3% Remote, and has also never done the Impossible. The numbers bear out Barney&#8217;s reputation. He is much higher in the bracket (except in the Routine category) than Travis, and he even breaks out of the range on &#8220;Even&#8221; plays (by 1%). He&#8217;s much more adept at getting those plays made when the difficulty goes up. It&#8217;s important though, to realize that even though Darwin has made 7.33% of the Remote plays he&#8217;s faced in his career, it might not have made much impact on the team&#8217;s season. That 7.33% represents three total plays in the bucket, or about one made per season.</p>
<p>Which leads us to Ryan Goins, and the impact of his glove on the defense. He&#8217;s logged 1486.1 innings at second base, a shade more than a full season, and his percentages, from Likely on down, are 97.9%, 87.5%, 85%, 28.6%, 13% and, of course, 0%. Goins is well ahead of Barney in Even and Remote quality plays made, but otherwise lines up about the same in the other categories. Again, the 13% of Remote plays made represents exactly three of these very difficult plays completed over his whole career. I know you probably remember two of them, or even all three. What happens though, if we put Ryan Goins into Devon Travis&#8217;s shoes for a whole season.</p>
<p>Of course, this is a deeply flawed exercise. Humour me. We&#8217;re going to give Ryan Goins credit for his rate of success, but on all the opportunities Devon Travis has had.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/travis-and-goins-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9780" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/travis-and-goins-chart.png" alt="travis and goins chart" width="880" height="112" /></a></p>
<p>So, in our hypothetical full season, Ryan Goins could make an extra dozen outs in the field for the Blue Jays. Which sounds like the Jays are giving up something real, maybe 12 out of 500 outs. Of course, we can never be sure it isn&#8217;t going to be more or less than that. When we look at 12 opportunities in a year, that&#8217;s not very many at all. What really brings it into focus though, is what happens when you give a bat to the two men above. If the ability to make outs in the field is at issue, then the ability to avoid making them at the plate should also be considered, for fairness.</p>
<p>Baseball reference has a handy &#8220;Per 162 games&#8221; stat line. Travis sports a .301/.342/.469 line for his career, and that translates into 206 times on base in a full season of play. Ryan Goins .224/.270/.325 pales in comparison, it means 131 times on base in the same number of games. Ryan Goins gain of 12 plays on defense come at a cost of 75 on offense.</p>
<p>But, you say, Goins isn&#8217;t competing with Travis, he&#8217;s competing with Barney! Yes. He is doing that. And I didn&#8217;t want to go there, but you clearly brought that up. This next part is your fault. I&#8217;m going to give Darwin Barney a chance to step into Devon Travis&#8217;s shoes. I do hope he doesn&#8217;t get any blisters.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/barney-and-goins-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9781" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/barney-and-goins-chart.png" alt="barney and goins chart" width="880" height="107" /></a></p>
<p>So, yeah, defensively, it doesn&#8217;t look like you could be sure one of these is a definitively better glove man. Which means that, in order to justify his presence on the roster, Goins would have to be a definitively better hitter than Darwin Barney. Barney&#8217;s career line is .249/.297/.343, and he averages 161 times on base every 162 games. He reaches 30 more times, on average, than Goins.</p>
<p>So, in conclusion, Ryan Goins can do this:<br />
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2cyDdeQ6aWQ" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
and this:<br />
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1245173583&amp;topic_id=73955164&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
But he can&#8217;t even manage enough of it to make an impact like this:<br />
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=99640083&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
Yes, I know he&#8217;s always been in blue, but saying goodbye to Ryan Goins, if it comes to that, is a door closing while another one opens. Behind that door is a second baseman who can put himself of base five or six times for every opponent Goins can keep off the bases.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Devon Travis, Brett Lawrie, and (a lack of) Middle Infield Depth</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/09/devon-travis-brett-lawrie-and-a-lack-of-middle-infield-depth/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/09/devon-travis-brett-lawrie-and-a-lack-of-middle-infield-depth/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Mar 2017 14:57:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Lawrie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9307</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I won’t hold your disdain for Brett Lawrie against you, but in light of John Gibbons’ comments on Tuesday morning it’s hard not to be more than a little concerned about the Toronto Blue Jays middle infield depth. “I expected him, to be honest, to be a little further along,” the manager said regarding starting [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I won’t hold your disdain for Brett Lawrie against you, but in light of John Gibbons’ comments on Tuesday morning it’s hard not to be more than a little concerned about the Toronto Blue Jays middle infield depth. “<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-devon-travis-start-season-dl/">I expected him, to be honest, to be a little further along</a>,” the manager said regarding starting second baseman Devon Travis. The disabled list hasn’t been ruled out, which is an unsettling possibility for a player that has been hounded by injuries.</p>
<p>On the field, Devon Travis has been one of the best second baseman in baseball over the last two seasons. He’s totalled 670 plate appearances over his 163 career games, and produced a .301/.342/.469 slash line. Baseball Prospectus values his worth at 3.5 WARP, while FanGraphs and Baseball Reference view his career performance at All Star levels; 4.8 and 5.4 wins above replacement, respectively.</p>
<p>As spectacular as those 163 games have been, it’s the 161 games that Travis has <em>missed</em> that’s arguably the greater of the two stories. Whether it be an ailing shoulder, knee, or whatever else, his inability to consistently stay on the field since early 2015 has put both the front office and coaching staff behind the barrel on a daily basis, forcing them to scramble to draw up a competent lineup card.</p>
<p>It certainly doesn’t help that Travis’ double play partners – Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki – haven’t exactly been iron men in their own right; over the past two seasons the Blue Jays have handed 1,708 plate appearances to their starting middle infielders, 956 plate appearances to backup middle infielders, and another 187 plate appearances to depth players that really had no business play being on the 25-man roster for a team in contention.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Playing-Time.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9308" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Playing-Time.png" alt="Middle Infield Playing Time" width="636" height="308" /></a></p>
<p>No organization enters a season expecting their starters to play one hundred percent of the time, particularly in the bumped and bruised middle infield. They’re probably hoping for between 80 and 90 percent, with their established bench players picking up the remaining slack. That the Blue Jays have given just 56 percent (1,708 of 2,851) of their middle infield plate appearances to their starters over the past two seasons is alarming, and certainly not a recipe for success moving forward.</p>
<p>The invaluable <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&amp;teamid=14">projected depth charts</a> over at FanGraphs currently forecast Travis and Tulowitzki to receive 70 percent (980 of 1,400) of the middle infield plate appearances in 2017, with the remaining going to Darwin Barney (210), Ryan Goins (161), Steve Pearce (35), and Richard Urena (14). While still a bit lower than one would hope – Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts come in at an enviable 90 percent for the damnable Red Sox – this would represent a considerable improvement over the past two seasons.</p>
<p>Still, that 70 percent projection could disappear in a hurry if Travis is already experiencing setbacks on his recovery from November knee surgery, and a roster with Ryan “Replacement Level” Goins in line to receive more than a handful of plate appearances is not the most desirable scenario for a team with playoff aspirations. Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, and John Gibbons won’t be able to turn to the system to help them through this bind, either. The top traditional middle infield prospect the Blue Jays have is Richard Urena, but the 21-year old Dominican has yet to master Double-A and should be firmly held in the “September call-up, maybe” category.</p>
<p>In the non-traditional sense, Lourdes Gurriel is the far more intriguing option. The 23-year old defected from Cuba and signed a seven year deal with the Blue Jays back in November, a tale that was <a href="https://theathletic.com/42192/2017/03/06/into-the-woods-how-lourdes-gurriel-jr-escaped-on-his-zig-zag-journey-from-cuba-to-the-blue-jays/">masterfully documented and shared</a> by John Lott at The Athletic. The general consensus at this very early stage is that Gurriel will begin his stateside career playing shortstop for one of the Blue Jays’ minor league affiliates, but it’s not out of the question that he sees time in Toronto before the year is out. Yet again, like Urena, if that debut is to happen at all this season it will be later rather than sooner, and it doesn’t shield the roster from what ails Devon Travis today.</p>
<p>If Ryan Goins is the best replacement that the 40-man roster and minor league affiliates can offer as protection from (and insurance for) another season of Devon Travis frequently drawing in-and-out of the lineup, then the front office needs to begin searching outside the organization. Brett Lawrie might not be the answer; in fact he’s probably not the answer given that he’s presently injured himself. But the fact that the question even needs to be asked less than two weeks into March highlights how little attention was paid to the middle infield while we all fretted about first base, the corner outfield, and the bullpen over the winter.</p>
<p>Having Devon Travis play 140 or more games at second base this season is an outstanding Plan A. For Plan B, the team needs to put the offseason of logistical oversight behind itself and find something a whole heck of a lot better than Ryan Goins. Because when you&#8217;re dipping into an already shaky Plan B in March, an untenable Plan C of career minor leaguers getting important plate appearances is only a bad hop, a misfired fastball, or a caught spike away.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays and Impending Roster Decisions</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/22/the-blue-jays-and-impending-roster-decisions/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/22/the-blue-jays-and-impending-roster-decisions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jul 2016 11:24:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Burns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bo Schultz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Colabello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Franklin Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Junior Lake]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays are playing rather well as of late and have launched themselves back into the upper echelon of the AL East. The team has hit its stride, but will have to shuffle some personnel with a handful of players set to return to the majors. While they should be getting their best [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays are playing rather well as of late and have launched themselves back into the upper echelon of the AL East. The team has hit its stride, but will have to shuffle some personnel with a handful of players set to return to the majors. While they should be getting their best 25 guys on the roster and working the rest out later, there is some wiggle room in terms of who stays, who goes, and who plays where.</p>
<p>There are several routes the team could take in constructing their roster when all these players are ready to go, so let’s take a shot at it.</p>
<h3>Jose Bautista</h3>
<p>Most important is the return of Joey Bats. Adding Bautista to a group that’s clicking on all cylinders could produce the lethal lineup that many expected coming into the season. He homered in his first at bat in a rehab game on Wednesday and will move up to AAA Buffalo today.</p>
<p>Whether he wants to admit it or not, Bautista would do well to transition to first base or DH in the not-so-distant future. The problem is that the newly-extended Justin Smoak and Edwin Encarnacion have those two spots locked down. On days that Bautista DH’s (in a perfect world there’d be many) it pushes EE to first and Smoak to the bench. The other surplus comes in the outfield, as Bautista’s addition (temporarily) makes for five outfielders on the roster. The simple answer is to return Junior Lake to AAA though the team risks losing him on waivers. With all due respect to Lake, that’s a risk the team should be willing to take.</p>
<p>Losing Lake leaves some questions considering both Bautista and Michael Saunders should be spared from playing the field on a regular basis. Ezeqiuel Carrera has been scuffling and injured as of late but has still authored a fine season; barring a complete collapse he fits in fine as a fourth outfielder who’ll play more often than most. Wednesday’s experiment with Darwin Barney in left probably points to the end of Lake although Carerra’s nagging Achilles problem could prompt the team to keep him as insurance and demote Andy Burns instead. Having two regular outfielders in need of days off or DH time isn’t the best thing in the world, but the Jays can certainly patch together a working rotation with four outfielders plus Barney.</p>
<h3>Chris Colabello</h3>
<p>Colabello, set to return from his 80 game PED suspension, will present the most interesting challenge or the easiest out. While he could rejoin the Blue Jays at the end of the month, 80 games is a long time off and it’s doubtful that Colabello could jump right back in and be productive. The team could opt to keep him in the minors to work out the kinks and bring him up later, if they choose to bring him back up at all.</p>
<p>Colabello is ineligible for the postseason should the Jays qualify so they have to put some thought into whether he’s worth playing down the stretch. Do they try their best to get to October, an already projected outcome, at the expense of those who will actually have to play then? Or do they pass up potential gains to get players like Smoak regular at bats that might pay off in the postseason? That’s a delicate balancing act; one that the Jays might not want to deal with. They should be good enough to make the playoffs without adding the wildcard Colabello before September&#8217;s roster expansion, but stranger things have happened. There just aren&#8217;t many ways to fit Colabello unless one of the first base / DH spots opens up via injury (heaven forbid) or transaction (HEAVEN FORBID), making a triumphant return unlikely at this point.</p>
<p>Should the team decide he’s not worth using at the major league level this season it might be best just to release him once his suspension is up. This is a situation full of “ifs” in a year where the Jays don’t have time to mess around with the roster. Rather than have him kick around in the minors he’d be free to look for another job and would remove a source of potential distraction for the organization. Releasing Colabello would be like ripping off the Band-Aid; it’d be a quick end to a situation that could grow increasingly uneasy with time.</p>
<h3>Ryan Goins</h3>
<p>Goins has turned in a tough year, hitting just .176 / .216 / .308 to go with his 0.00 ERA. While he probably deserves to be in Buffalo based on merit, he seems to have carved out a spot in Toronto. If the team didn’t send him down during his struggles at the plate he’ll likely return to the big club at the expense of Burns (or Lake, depending on the Carrera business). That gives the Jays two backup middle infielders, though Barney can give Josh Donaldson a break at third base every once in a while.</p>
<h3>Franklin Morales</h3>
<p>Morales will have to be activated or released today; hopefully sometime after this is published. If forced to guess, I’d bet that he comes up for Aaron Loup. The Blue Jays have kept him on a rehab assignment for the maximum 30 days, so either they’ve either been killing time in hopes of a spot opening up organically or he’s really been struggling to get back to form. The smart money is probably on the former, as the only relievers with options remaining are Aaron Loup and Bo Schultz; neither of whom have played their way out of a job. Both have been adequate lately and it doesn’t seem like the Jays will carry three lefties. As a result, it’s pretty much a toss-up between Loup and Morales.</p>
<p>It might make the most sense to give Morales a chance to outperform Loup in the lefty specialist role. If he ends up being better, the Jays get improved production while keeping both in the organization. If he’s worse, they can release Morales and bring Loup back up. He’ll be kept on a short leash and the Jays will at least know what they’ve got before getting rid of him.</p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p>The staff ace will be activated on Friday, likely taking a spot from the bullpen. Bo Schultz probably gets sent down in the corresponding move, returning the team to five starters and seven relievers.</p>
<h3>The Shuffle</h3>
<p>To sum it all up, after all of the roster shuffling, here’s one guess as to what we’ll likely see.</p>
<ul>
<li>Franklin Morales to Toronto; Aaron Loup to Buffalo</li>
<li>Marco Estrada to Toronto; Bo Schultz to Buffalo</li>
<li>Jose Bautista to Toronto; Junior Lake to Buffalo</li>
<li>Ryan Goins to Toronto; Andy Burns to Buffalo</li>
<li>Colabello to the ether (at least until September)</li>
</ul>
<p>The Blue Jays are working their way back to full health and while that’s obviously a good thing, it does present some challenges in terms of roster construction. With the trade deadline approaching fast, there will surely be even more reshuffling. For now, there&#8217;s a couple paths forward. The team&#8217;s decision makers will have to navigate the forks in the road.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>EMERGENCY STUFF REPORT: Grading the Position Players</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/emergency-stuff-report-grading-the-position-players/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/emergency-stuff-report-grading-the-position-players/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jul 2016 14:33:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Gimenez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JP Arencibia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4360</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika and Mike Sonne It’s been a strange weekend for baseball. The Canada Day game for the Blue Jays, normally a haven for baseball lovers and patriots alike, became a burning cesspool of despair. What started as a likely precursor to some festive summer drinking, turned into a 19 inning, six and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/nickdika/" target="_blank">Nick Dika</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/mikesonne/" target="_blank">Mike Sonne</a></em></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s been a strange weekend for baseball. The Canada Day game for the Blue Jays, normally a haven for baseball lovers and patriots alike, became a burning cesspool of despair. What started as a likely precursor to some festive summer drinking, turned into a 19 inning, six and a half hour affair, where beers stopped flowing after seven innings. Kudos to all of those who lasted through the entire event. </span></p>
<p>That Jays game ended with Carlos Santana taking infielder Darwin Barney out of the park &#8211; but not before infielder Ryan Goins turned in a scoreless inning. Over in Boston, Ryan LaMarre handled a scoreless inning the Red Sox blowout loss to the Angels. Then on Sunday, Catchers Chris Giminez and Miguel Montero were handed the ball in blow outs &#8211; both in an effort to minimize the damage to heavily taxed bullpens.</p>
<p>Normally, I write about <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/mikesonne/" target="_blank">which pitchers</a> have the best stuff (<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-1/" target="_blank">full breakdown and explanation here</a>). But given the events of this weekend, today I’m writing about the best stuff from those oddballs highlighted by the Twitter account <a href="https://twitter.com/70MPHFastball" target="_blank">@70MPHastball</a> , the position player pitcher.</p>
<h1><b>Methods</b></h1>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">I did a search for PITCHf/x data of all pitchers, averaged since the 2007 season (the season where PITCHf/x began). I cross referenced this against Baseball Reference’s list of </span><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/fieldPitch.shtml"><span style="font-weight: 400">non-pitchers with pitching appearances list</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. As a rule, the players couldn’t have been actual pitchers (like Rick Ankiel, or Jason Lane) in order to be eligible for the list. They also had to throw a minimum of 10 pitches. In the end, I ended up with 71 &#8220;pitchers&#8221; to rank. You can find them all in the chart below:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1z57yz-0hqyHfkSEiD_m4k_BiPFZAA32baqFl3mJOKiE/pubhtml?gid=0&amp;single=true&amp;widget=true&amp;headers=false" width="100%" height="500px" ></iframe></p>
<p>At the top of this list, and thanks to his huge differential in velocity &#8211; is Adam LaRoche. This is paired with a respectable fastball (85 mph), and a good amount of resultant distance between his pitches. He even racked up a K in his appearance. Now that Adam is retired, you can only imagine he spends his days striking out poor Drake over and over again.</p>
<p>Next up is Padres Catcher, Christian Bethancourt &#8211; he managed a mid 90’s fastball, and dropped an Eephus in there (in the high 50’s) &#8211; giving him a &gt;30 percent change in velocity. That’s a monstrosity of a speed differential! He also had the hardest fastball on this list, which is no surprise given his primary tool is arm strength.</p>
<p>Ryan Goins was third on the list, but the first position player who didn’t get the majority of his stuff ranking from velocity differential. Goins threw a mid 70s curve to one of the first batters he faced, which dropped a whopping 21.2” compared to his fastball. That’s in the absolute elite of all <em>actual</em> starting pitchers.</p>
<p>Further down the list, we start to see where the positional guys are probably just trying to put some pitches in play &#8211; but if you had ever wondered where you stack up against a major league pitcher, this is a good point of reference. Dean Anna pitched a scoreless inning for the Yankees back in 2014, and did so with a mid to low 60’s fastball &#8211; and nothing else. He has the lowest stuff on the list, at around -10. To put it in perspective, I was checking out Platinum Blonde at Gage Park in Hamilton on Friday night &#8211; and low and behold, there was a “guess your pitch speed” booth there! While significantly limited by my choice of Canada Day  footwear, and lack of athletic ability, I did my best to let my arm go, and topped out at 65 mph. Now, this was at the maximum of my arm’s potential, so I had about… three more of those left in me before having to give Dr. James Andrews a call. But I think I can safely say that my stuff would be in that -11 range. I&#8217;m coming for you, Dean Anna.</p>
<p>A special guest to the Stuff Report is <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/nickdika/">Nick Dika </a>from Baseball Prospectus, Arkells, and any Hamilton establishment that has a wing night. In honour of former top prospect, and holiday BBQ champion Travis Snider (the Lunch Box), he&#8217;s rating a few of these position players on their ability to transition to the mound on a more permanent basis, on a scale of 1 to 5 lunch boxes.</p>
<h2>Chris Davis &#8211; 5 lunch boxes</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/H7hXOxrozxM" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Unlike a lot of position players that take the mound, Chris Davis has the bonafide “country hardball” type of pitcher build that drives scouts crazy. His big, strong frame screams power and he possess the body type that can consistently log 200 innings per season, unlike his position player pitcher cohorts Ichiro, Alexi Ramirez and Darwin Barney. Standing 6’3&#8243;, he creates plenty of downward plane and his neptune-sized wad of chewing tobacco tells us that he projects to have the same upside as other dipping starters like Jake Peavy and Madison Bumgarner. While Davis’ stuff doesn’t grade out particularly well (-1.81, or fourth percentile) based on his body of work thus far, his raw talent (he touched 89) and Clemens-esque build will have scouts drooling. Most importantly, Baltimore needs the all the pitching help they can get.</span></p>
<h2><strong>Ryan Goins &amp; Darwin Barney &#8211; 4 lunch boxes</strong></h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a></p>
<h2><strong>Vs. Chris Gimenez &#8211; 2 lunch boxes</strong></h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/sFvLVFTVwE4" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This weekend’s series between Cleveland and Toronto was a hard fought battle between two teams that could very well meet again come playoff time in October. While the teams split the four game series at the Rogers Centre, the Blue Jays did come away with a clear advantage in terms of position players pitching. While Cleveland catcher Chris Gimenez (-1.86, fourth percentile) was touched up for four runs in two innings of work, Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney combined for two innings of one run ball for the home side. Beyond his ineffective outing on Sunday, Gimenez relies primarily on a super slow changeup (that was so wonky, MLB Gameday thought it was a knuckleball), which can be notoriously fickle from day to day. On the Blue Jays side of things, Darwin Barney (-1.30, seventh percentile) touched 85 mph and Ryan Goins (0.87, 74th percentile!!) flashed plus breaking stuff without walking a batter &#8211; something that seems to evade the regular Blue Jays relievers a lot of the time. If future matchups see the teams get into their “special relievers” (and hopefully it happens during a Trevor Bauer start), the Blue Jays hold a clear advantage.</span></p>
<h2>JP Arencibia &#8211; 1 lunch box</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-4364" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/07/lunchbox.jpg" alt="lunchbox" width="44" height="44" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/jXBojKiO-ZA" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><strong><strong> </strong></strong>JP Arencibia on the mound is actually just regular JP Arencibia, but in pitcher form. Like most lists that involve ranking performance on a Major League baseball field, Arencibia can be found right at the bottom, ranking 69th (from what I recall, he may be a guy who would appreciate something like that) out of 71 position player pitchers with a Stuff ranking of -7.46. That is in the zero percentile. Tough to do! While Arencibia was often criticized for being a hitter without patience, he practiced what he preached on the mound as well, throwing only 10 pitches to four batters in a scoreless inning. Much like his plate appearances, it may not have been pretty but at least he didn’t drag them out too long.</p>
<p>So there you have it! The definitive Stuff report for non-pitchers. We can&#8217;t wait to see who else adds their name to this list in the near future.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Backup Plan: Examining the Jays&#8217; Bench</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/backup-plan-examining-the-jays-bench/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/backup-plan-examining-the-jays-bench/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jun 2016 10:48:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3434</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays&#8217; bench isn&#8217;t great. To anyone who&#8217;s watched the team the last couple of years, this is not a shock. With a lot of money invested in high-end players, the Jays have generally bargain-hunted and worked the edges, taking chances on Quad-A players and filling the empty spaces from within rather than spend [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; bench isn&#8217;t great. To anyone who&#8217;s watched the team the last couple of years, this is not a shock. With a lot of money invested in high-end players, the Jays have generally bargain-hunted and worked the edges, taking chances on Quad-A players and filling the empty spaces from within rather than spend a lot of effort to fill out the roster.</p>
<p>The suspension to Chris Colabello and injuries to Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki threw a wrench into the Jays&#8217; plans for this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness from players are a part of life in baseball. We certainly saw that last season, with Michael Saunders, Jose Bautista, Travis and Tulowitzki among the offensive regulars who missed time after getting hurt. It was those injuries that led to the Jays getting players like Ben Revere, Cliff Pennington, and Darwin Barney to fortify the roster.</p>
<p>Though the Jays have been quiet on the trade front so far, there&#8217;s a lot of season left, and if they&#8217;re close at the deadline they may well look to improve their reserves. With roughly a third of this season gone, let&#8217;s examine the Jays&#8217; current bench situation, and see how they can improve it.</p>
<h3>The Numbers</h3>
<p>Teams usually need at least three backups for defensive purposes: a catcher, an infielder, and an outfielder. Given that Darwin Barney replicates and eclipses a lot of Ryan Goins&#8217; skills, one could easily argue that they could ship out Goins (or Barney) and not lose much. But is replacing Goins with a pitcher an improvement? Given the Jays&#8217; struggles in the bullpen, perhaps. But the Jays&#8217; starting staff is also fifth in baseball in innings pitched. The problem with the bullpen (which we&#8217;re not going to spend time on here) is not quantity, but quality. They don&#8217;t need more options- they need better options. So we won&#8217;t explore a three-man bench.</p>
<p>What about five guys? Do the Jays need more players off the bench, to add additional skills and versatility? They have a lot of premium offensive players in their everyday lineup: Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin are (or have the reputations as) great hitters, and will be in the lineup almost every day. Devon Travis and Michael Saunders are solid regulars, who will probably get some days off. That&#8217;s seven out of nine spots right there, leaving Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak. Smoak is hitting very well so far this season, and without Colabello, has no platoon partner at first base any more. So there&#8217;s no platoons, and we have only Pillar as an obvious pinch-hitting opportunity. With that in mind, another bench player probably wouldn&#8217;t be that useful, given the assumed depth in the lineup. Since we&#8217;re sticking with four bench guys, who should we change out?</p>
<h3>The Options</h3>
<p>Thole&#8217;s spot, much to the collective chagrin of Jays fans, is probably safe. It&#8217;s unlikely that the Jays will change Dickey&#8217;s catcher in the middle of the season, and cut Thole loose without an airtight solution. The fact is there aren&#8217;t any ready replacements out there. The internal options aren&#8217;t enticing, and have never caught the knuckleball. The only other knuckleball catchers in baseball are in Boston, and intra-division trades during the season are rare. Though Blake Swihart, who caught knuckler Steven Wright earlier in the season, is now playing left field, he&#8217;s still relatively young, and the Jays aren&#8217;t going to give up what Boston would want for him. We&#8217;ll have to grit our teeth and bear with Thole, for the days Dickey catches. At least R.A. has been better since the calendar turned to May. If there&#8217;s a injury, I&#8217;d expect the Jays to go get someone who could passably resemble a regular catcher.</p>
<p>Carrera&#8217;s spot is interesting, and would be a more natural fit for a right-handed bat, given that he usually subs for the left-handed hitting Michael Saunders. Jays fans perhaps pine for Red Sox outfielder Chris Young, who would be an ideal fit as a fourth-outfielder type, but he&#8217;s much too expensive for Toronto. Getting Darell Ceciliani and Dominic Brown in the off-season was good insulation against the nightmares of last season happening again (Remember the Goins-Carrera-Valencia outfield?), but they too are left-handed. Ceciliani outplayed Carrera and Brown in the spring, but his having an option and the team&#8217;s familiarity with Carrera (for better and worse) made his demotion to Buffalo inevitable, even with Ceciliani being a better defensive outfielder. Carrera has been used as a defensive replacement for Saunders, and as a pinch-runner, but he&#8217;s not very good at either of those things, he&#8217;s just the best of what the Jays have. Given that Carrera has torn the cover off the ball so far, they probably won&#8217;t change his spot now, but it&#8217;s certainly worth monitoring going forward.</p>
<p>So we come to the infielders, Goins and Barney. Both accomplished defensively, both below average hitters (usually), with Goins having a couple more defensive positions in his history, and Barney having a longer track record of success. As we discussed previously, this is where we could look at making the change, since there&#8217;s not a lot of sense in keeping both of them once everyone&#8217;s healthy. Both of them being good defensively is fine, but there isn&#8217;t really a need for a regular defensive replacement. Tulowitzki, Smoak, and Donaldson are all fantastic defenders, and Travis isn&#8217;t a liability. You only really need one of them, for when Tulowitzki, Travis, or Donaldson needs a day off. Barney has a longer track record, and has hit much better this year, so the Jays should look to keep him over Goins.</p>
<p>But who, or what, do they replace Goins with? The best option would be someone who could pinch-hit, as that is the obvious gap in the Jays&#8217; bench right now. Though the Jays have a lot of premium offensive players, Kevin Pillar is not one of those, and he should be pinch-hit for in crucial situations. And on days where one of those elite players is sitting, someone like Thole or Barney is in the lineup, and represents another opportunity for a better bat to take a crucial late inning appearance. Last year, the Jays had Chris Colabello, Danny Valencia, or Justin Smoak as potential power threats in the late innings. This year, they haven&#8217;t really had that, which has been noticeable with the offense performing below expectations. They could have kept Jimmy Paredes after getting him from Baltimore, which would have avoided this problem, as he had an obvious potential role as a late-inning bat. None of the current options are appealing as a hitter, as Barney and Carrera probably aren&#8217;t as dangerous as their numbers suggest.</p>
<p>Internally, the Jays have some interesting names at AAA Buffalo: players like Andy Burns, Jesus Montero, or Dominic Brown would be potential late inning bats. Brown is a left-hander (like Carrera), and hasn&#8217;t hit well at Buffalo this year, so he&#8217;s probably not an option. Burns was a popular name at the end of spring training, has hit lefties capably this year (a .765 OPS against them at Buffalo), and would offer some defensively flexibility, playing second, third, and the corner outfield spots. He didn&#8217;t get much of a chance with the Jays earlier this season, so maybe it&#8217;s time to give him another look. Montero would slide into the Colabello role nicely, as someone who could play first base and offer some power potential. He is another lefty masher, though he has hit both sides well in the minors this season. A frustrating note is that the Jays have had potential solutions to this problem in-house, and let them go free: Danny Valencia last season (he would have been very useful during the offensive swoon early on), and Paredes several days ago.</p>
<h3>The Verdict</h3>
<p>The lack of a dangerous reserve bat is something that has hurt them at times this year with how many close games they&#8217;ve been in, though not as much as the offense under-performing as a unit. Swapping Goins for someone a little more dangerous with the stick would help them some, as Goins doesn&#8217;t offer anything unique in the construction of the team. Once Tulowitzki comes back, I&#8217;d expect them to send Goins down for someone like Jesus Montero or Andy Burns. My preference would be Burns for the positional versatility, though Montero does have some of that post-prospect shine still on him, and there&#8217;s always the chance he figures it out and becomes something more, like Colabello did last season. Hopefully the Jays pull the trigger on that and give John Gibbons a little more ammunition, both in filling out a lineup card and those close, late games that they seem to keep having.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Odd Way In Which The Blue Jays Won Late</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/03/the-odd-way-in-which-the-blue-jays-won-late/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/03/the-odd-way-in-which-the-blue-jays-won-late/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 May 2016 10:48:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[One At-Bat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[9th inning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home run]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luck]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Trop]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2211</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One At-Bat is a thing I do around here. I usually take one critical plate appearance from the recent past, and I break it down pitch by pitch. I do that in order to offer insight into just how thin the line is between victory and defeat on any given night. Any given day, too, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One At-Bat is a thing I do around here. I usually take one critical plate appearance from the recent past, and I break it down pitch by pitch. I do that in order to offer insight into just how thin the line is between victory and defeat on any given night. Any given day, too, I guess. Sometimes, though, it isn&#8217;t One At-Bat. The one swing that looks dramatic and important isn&#8217;t really the key, it&#8217;s just the exclamation point on a long sentence of improbable events.</p>
<p>The reason, naturally, that I bring this up, is that while searching for my next OAB breakdown, I found such a confluence of events. Sunday afternoon, May 1st, at Tropicana Field, the Blue Jays and the Rays entered the top of the 9th inning tied 1-1. Interestingly, each team had a win expectancy of 50% at that point. It was literally anybody&#8217;s game to win. By the end of the half inning, the Rays will have a 1.5% chance of winning the game, and it all starts with Darwin Barney.</p>
<h3>The Setup:</h3>
<p>Not a lot of stories start with Darwin Barney, so that&#8217;s significant right there. In this case, Barney, who hits from the right side, has been called upon to pinch hit in Ryan Goins&#8217; spot, as the Rays lefty Xavier Cedeno is pitching to start the ninth. It&#8217;s the natural call for John Gibbons to make, as righties gain about 70 points of AVG and 90 points of OBP versus Cedendo.</p>
<p>With that said, Darwin Barney is a glove first player, and has a career OBP against lefties of .322 (close to league average) and a SLG% of .384 (not even close to average). Darwin Barney also hits doubles at the rate of one every 21.42 plate appearances (just below league average). However, on the second pitch of his at-bat, Darwin turns on an inside cutter at 87mph.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Barney2BRays.gif"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Barney2BRays.gif" alt="" width="475" height="270" /></a></p>
<p>It lands fair in the left field corner and he chugs into second base standing up. The first link in the chain is formed.</p>
<h3>The Sequence:</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders comes up, and it&#8217;s obvious from pitch number one that he&#8217;s bunting. John Gibbons is playing to score one run, sacrificing an out to get Barney to third. Cedeno remains in the game, as the lefty/lefty matchup favours him. Even though the bunt is on everyone&#8217;s mind, Xavier misses low, or low and away four times in a row. Instead of one out, Saunders walks down to first. Nobody out, two on, and the right handed power core coming up for Toronto means it&#8217;s time for a pitching change. The second link in the chain is in place.</p>
<p>Alex Colome is the new pitcher, and he doesn&#8217;t start off well against Donaldson. He throws 95mph, misses low, and then buries his second pitch in front of home plate. Then something a little bit lucky happens: the umpire, perhaps unimpressed with the wildness he&#8217;s seen, calls the next two pitches balls as well. Let&#8217;s see where they actually tracked.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/JD-vs-colome.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2214" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/JD-vs-colome.gif" alt="JD vs colome" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>Under normal circumstances the zone usually expands when the hitter is ahead, but apparently, not this time. So, instead of 2-2, which is a tough count to hit in, the Blue Jays have the bases loaded and nobody out. In terms of win expectancy, Barney&#8217;s double raised the Jays chances by 17.3%, Saunders&#8217; walk by 2.5%, and Donaldson&#8217;s walk 14.5%. The Jays haven&#8217;t had a runner cross the plate, but the likelihood of multiple runs in the inning is so high that the Jays have an 84.3% chance of winning the game at this point.</p>
<p>This is why I love baseball. You know what should happen. You know what probably will happen. You can even see it happening in your mind. But it hasn&#8217;t happened yet. Colome might wriggle out of the chain.</p>
<p>The next batter up is Jose Bautista. Something you may have not noticed about Jose: in this particular situation, and by that I mean with the bases loaded, he&#8217;s not very good. His career slash line, as a point of reference, is .257/.369/.498. With the bases loaded, he bats .222/.317/.411. That&#8217;s a big dropoff. Oddly, if you take the runner off of first base, Jose has a .432/.559/.704 career slash line. Mental block? Not sure, but if you want somebody up with the bases loaded and the game on the line, it&#8217;s probably not Jose.</p>
<p>True to form, Jose starts chasing on the 4th pitch of the at-bat, and chases himself back into the dugout with a swinging strikeout on the fifth. The Rays get 12.4% of their win probability back. There is a mark on the chain, but it&#8217;s going to take a lot more effort to break it.</p>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion is up next. The very first pitch is hit for a sharp grounder up the middle. In another time and place, it&#8217;s a double play and the inning is over. The Blue Jays, however, are forging a chain out of luck and hope here. Somehow, with the infield shifted around and pulled in, the second baseman fields the ball on the shortstop side of the bag. Take a look.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EEnoDPRays.gif" alt="" width="475" height="259" /></p>
<p>When he does that, the shortstop doesn&#8217;t have time to cover second base. With nobody to throw to the only out to be had was at first base. I don&#8217;t know how that wasn&#8217;t a double play. The odds of a grounder fielded by the second baseman are low. Those odds with two slow runners on the base paths? Even lower.</p>
<p>Encarnacion&#8217;s fielder&#8217;s choice is worth 13.6% in win expectancy. Incredibly, it&#8217;s only the third highest change in the win probability in this inning. Some games finish without a single plate appearance affecting the outcome by that much.</p>
<h3>The Payoff:</h3>
<p>I call it &#8220;The Payoff&#8221; here because it&#8217;s what we all want; a big moment to stamp in our memories. So, let&#8217;s walk through it, have some fun, and then go back for another look.</p>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki. Two men on. Two men out.</p>
<p>Pitch One &#8211;  Away, ball one.</p>
<p>Pitch Two &#8211;  High, ball two.</p>
<p>Pitch Three &#8211;  Low, outside corner, strike one.</p>
<p>Pitch Four &#8211; Upper third of the zone, outer third of the plate. Swing and a drive.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/TuloHRRays.gif" alt="" width="475" height="261" /></p>
<p>And that, folks, is how you give up the 198th home run of Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s career. The Win Expectancy needle moves 13.1% on that play. It&#8217;s hard for it to move much further, as the Jays now have a 98.5% chance of sealing the victory in the bottom of the 9th.</p>
<p>Can I point to one critical moment in this inning? No, I only have so many fingers on my hand. It began with an unlikely double. And, by win expectancy, that double was the most important play in the inning. It continued with a four pitch walk that should have been a sac bunt. Another four pitch walk was a gift from the umpire. Then a strikeout. Then an easy groundout that wasn&#8217;t a double play. Finally, the big blow: a home run from Tulowitzki (who hasn&#8217;t looked like himself since he became a Blue Jay). Maybe the Trop isn&#8217;t the &#8216;house of horrors&#8217; that we make it out to be. Perhaps instead it&#8217;s just where bizarre baseball comes to play.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image- Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Red Sox 8, Blue Jays 4; Bautista&#8217;s Two Homers Weren&#8217;t Enough</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/09/recap-red-sox-8-blue-jays-4-bautistas-two-homers-werent-enough/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/09/recap-red-sox-8-blue-jays-4-bautistas-two-homers-werent-enough/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Apr 2016 20:47:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1251</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Throughout Spring Training, the line from pundits was that the offense will be there, and the pitching just has to be good enough for the Blue Jays to win. However, that doesn&#8217;t quite work when a third of the team&#8217;s starting lineup is comprised of bench players. Of Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Thole, and Darwin Barney, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Throughout Spring Training, the line from pundits was that the offense will be there, and the pitching just has to be good enough for the Blue Jays to win. However, that doesn&#8217;t quite work when a third of the team&#8217;s starting lineup is comprised of bench players. Of Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Thole, and Darwin Barney, only Barney had a hit, and it was a meaningless single after the damage had already been done by the Red Sox. Beyond Barney, the team&#8217;s only other hits came from the big four of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, and Edwin Encarnacion. Of that group, Josh and Jose were the big contributors. Bautista hit a home run in each of his first two plate appearances, and Donaldson was on-base for a run each time. It just goes to show you that this team needs more than Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson in order to succeed.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Had you only watched the first four innings of this game, you likely would have thought that the top play would be one of Bautista&#8217;s two lead-taking homers. Instead, Hanley Ramirez took the WPA crown today, with his triple in the 5th inning to score Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts. Hanley&#8217;s hit increased the Red Sox chances of winning by 24.7%, and the Blue Jays never had a prayer thereafter.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play of the game came on one of R.A. Dickey&#8217;s nine strikeouts; this one to Travis Shaw in the top of the 5th inning. At the time, that strikeout kept the Jays level with the Red Sox at 4-4, decreasing the Sox&#8217;s chances of winning by 6.9%. However, it was all for naught as Hanley&#8217;s game topping triple came in the very next at bat.</p>
<h3>The Knuckleball Danced a Little Too Much</h3>
<p>It&#8217;s hard to say whether or not this was truly a bad start by R.A. Dickey. He had his knuckleball dancing more than we&#8217;ve seen in a long while. That movement led Dickey to strike out nine batters, his highest such total since he struck out ten Red Sox batters back on July 28th 2014. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the result of today&#8217;s game was far different from the 14-1 hit fest that they had back in 2014. The difference today being that while Dickey&#8217;s knuckler was moving, it was almost moving too much; he couldn&#8217;t control it at key points. In two of those cases, it led to a passed ball by Josh Thole; one of which allowed Hanley Ramirez to score. In many other cases, it led Dickey to leave a few pitches over the heart of the plate that Boston&#8217;s lineup took advantage of. I think we can do without the strikeouts if it means more weak contact in the future.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow, with their own knuckle ball pitcher on the mound, the Red Sox will have the opportunity to sweep the Blue Jays. That&#8217;s a feat that they didn&#8217;t accomplish at all in 2015. For their part, the Blue Jays will be tossing Marco Estrada out for his first start of the year. As well, the first 20,000 fans will get 2015 AL East Division Championship pennants. The team hasn&#8217;t been able to give one of those away in over 20 years, so that&#8217;ll fun. Hopefully the Blue Jays&#8217; bats can match the occasion with a few more homers, and lead the team to their first home win of 2016.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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