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	<title>Toronto &#187; Dalton Pompey</title>
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		<title>Imagining the Ridiculously Athletic Jays Outfield of the Future</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/26/imagining-the-ridiculously-athletic-jays-outfield-of-the-future/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/26/imagining-the-ridiculously-athletic-jays-outfield-of-the-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 May 2017 10:53:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11141</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#8217;ve seen Anthony Alford in the big leagues. He struck out a bunch and reached base just once, but the hit tool isn&#8217;t why he was 93rd on Baseball Prospectus&#8217; annual prospect rankings. Baseball Prospectus&#8217; latest eyewitness scouting report from Steve Givarz gives him a 55 glove grade and 70 speed grade. Alford was fresh off [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve seen Anthony Alford in the big leagues. He struck out a bunch and reached base just once, but the hit tool isn&#8217;t why he was 93rd on Baseball Prospectus&#8217; annual <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160">prospect rankings</a>. Baseball Prospectus&#8217; latest eyewitness <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=378">scouting report</a> from Steve Givarz gives him a 55 glove grade and 70 speed grade. Alford was fresh off the DL that day, so the 70 grade might not even be doing his wheels full justice. Now, of course, he&#8217;s <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-place-outfielder-anthony-alford-disabled-list/">back on the DL</a>.</p>
<p>Alford wasn&#8217;t supposed to be due up until September, or even 2018, but then Kevin Pillar <a href="http://torontoist.com/2017/05/the-blue-jays-have-a-homophobia-problem-how-do-we-fix-it/">said something</a> and Darell Ceciliani <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/article/jays-ceciliani-headed-to-dl-due-to-shoulder-injury-1.756061">broke himself</a> hitting a homer. His three game stint was hardly enough to show off his tools—Alford had just three opportunities in the outfield and all were routine—but watching him flank Pillar in left last Sunday got me thinking about something exciting: the Kansas City Royals.</p>
<p>Yes, I know, there is perhaps nothing less exciting than the Kansas City Royals in 2017. They just <a href="http://www.upi.com/Sports_News/MLB/2017/05/22/Minnesota-Twins-put-Phil-Hughes-on-DL-for-biceps-injury/1951495493147/">sent Phil Hughes to the DL</a>. It&#8217;s a snoozefest. In 2014, however, the Royals were a base-hit away from winning the World Series. After their dominant bullpen, the most exciting topic in baseball was their ridiculously talented outfield. Ben Lindbergh went so far as to call it the <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/2014-mlb-playoffs-exploiting-kansas-city-royals-ultimate-outfield-jarrod-dyson-alex-gordon-lorenzo-cain/">&#8216;ultimate&#8217; outfield</a>. At Baseball Prospectus, Sam Miller said, &#8220;we’re talking about what one might decide to argue is the greatest defensive outfield of all-time.&#8221; That&#8217;s not even a hot take: Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson collectively led the league in both <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&amp;stats=fld&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2014&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=21,d">UZR </a>and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&amp;stats=fld&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2014&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2014&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=8,d">DRS</a> that season while holding opponents to a minuscule .060 BABIP on fly balls.</p>
<p>Norichika Aoki prevented this from happening every game, but when the Gordon-Cain-Dyson outfield started it wasn&#8217;t just a nice boost for the Royals starting pitcher that night. It was a demoralizing blow to every hitter on the opposing team. It was like Petco Park before they moved the fences in. It was like those three were trying to kill the fly ball revolution before it even happened.</p>
<p>Why did I just write a bunch of words about Kansas City? With Alford patrolling left field and Pillar in centre, it occurred to me that the Jays were just one name away from assembling an outfield that could conceivably rival the 2014 Royals. That name belongs to a slightly concussed 23-year-old who might develop into a better true CF than any of these guys: Dalton Pompey.</p>
<p>With Bautista likely sticking around Toronto for one, maybe two more years, the Alford-Pillar-Pompey überoutfield might not see daylight until 2019. Still, it feels inevitable. And when it hits, it should generate the same buzz that the 2014 Royals got, that the pre-Marte suspension 2017 Pirates outfield got.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/scouting-reports-alford-pompey.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11150" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/scouting-reports-alford-pompey-1024x219.jpg" alt="scouting reports alford pompey" width="1024" height="219" /></a></p>
<p>Those are the available speed and defence scouting grades for Alford and Pompey. Don&#8217;t stare too long. Pompey&#8217;s stock has fallen since cracking MLB&#8217;s top-100 list in 2014, but his glove has never been in question. BP scout Chris Mellen gave it a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=145">60 grade</a>,  calling his defence the &#8220;best present aspect of [his] game in terms of polish.&#8221;</p>
<p>In non-scout jargon, he can make plays like this:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RsBy7F_vhmQ" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know what the exit velocity or catch probability is on that highlight, but he takes a perfect route and has elite closing speed. Barely needed to dive on a ball most centre fielders would probably try to play off a bounce.</p>
<p>Alford&#8217;s glove comes in a hair below Pompey&#8217;s, with the general criticism being that he uses his plus-plus speed to cover up inconsistent routes. If you read that again it&#8217;s not even a criticism, because plus-plus speed is always a good thing. As for the eye test, here&#8217;s the best highlight I could find:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://www.milb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=178465883&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=milb" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<p>Now that you&#8217;re sold on Pompey and Alford, all that&#8217;s left to do is sell you on Pillar. What&#8217;s that? You&#8217;re sold? My job here is done.</p>
<p>Of course, this ridiculously athletic outfield may never fully come to fruition. Injuries can and will strike. Pillar is somehow one of the Jays&#8217; best trade chips after Donaldson should Atkins decide to rebuild. And Gibbons will always be under pressure to play the hot bat at the expense of stellar defence. But hopefully by 2019 the value of defence will be more quantifiable and he won&#8217;t face quite the same pressure that drove Ned Yost to start Aoki over Dyson <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2014-roster.shtml">126 times</a>.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports </em></p>
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		<title>Making a Case for Melvin Upton Jr. as the Starting Left Fielder</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/16/making-a-case-for-melvin-upton-jr/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/16/making-a-case-for-melvin-upton-jr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Mar 2017 10:54:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9491</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thursday marks the halfway point between the Blue Jays’ first Spring Training game and Opening Day. With the second half getting underway, we are beginning to see more cuts, higher pitch counts, and a greater sense of clarity as to who’s winning the spring&#8217;s annual position battles. While some of these situations are beginning to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thursday marks the halfway point between the Blue Jays’ first Spring Training game and Opening Day. With the second half getting underway, we are beginning to see more cuts, higher pitch counts, and a greater sense of clarity as to who’s winning the spring&#8217;s annual position battles. While some of these situations are beginning to sort themselves out, others take longer to develop. For the Blue Jays, the battle for starting left fielder appears to be stretching out longer than they would have liked.</p>
<p>Toronto&#8217;s left field situation is very murky. Currently, the job appears to be going to a combination of Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr., with Steve Pearce, Darrell Ceciliani, and Dalton Pompey still in the mix. There are talks of platoons and players splitting time between left field and other positions. Curiously, there has not been much talk about a single player winning the job outright. One of the players that could do this is Melvin Upton Jr.</p>
<p>Today, in true Spring Training fashion, we are going to play a meaningless game. The game is called, “Melvin Upton Jr. has a really similar offensive profile to another Blue Jay, try and guess who it is” (it’s only a working title):</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="170"><strong>Player (2004-2016)</strong></td>
<td width="27"><strong>Games</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/">BB%</a></strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/">K%</a></strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/iso/">ISO</a></strong></td>
<td width="71"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/">Contact%</a></strong></td>
<td width="53"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ops/">OPS</a></strong></td>
<td width="66"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/">WRC+</a></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="170"><em>2004-2016 MLB Average</em></td>
<td width="27"><em>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</em></td>
<td width="52"><em>8.4%</em></td>
<td width="51"><em>18.1%</em></td>
<td width="46"><em>.155</em></td>
<td width="71"><em>80.3%</em></td>
<td width="53"><em>.737</em></td>
<td width="66"><em>100</em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="170">Player A</td>
<td width="27">1469</td>
<td width="52">10.1%</td>
<td width="51">26.6%</td>
<td width="46">.158</td>
<td width="71">72.9%</td>
<td width="53">.723</td>
<td width="66">98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="170">Player B</td>
<td width="27">824</td>
<td width="52">10.6%</td>
<td width="51">23.9%</td>
<td width="46">.168</td>
<td width="71">76.4%</td>
<td width="53">.700</td>
<td width="66">95</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>For their careers, both of these players have provided slightly below-average offensive production. Both players have found success through hitting with above average power and drawing walks at an above average rate. They have been held back from further offensive success because they are both prone to swinging and missing, leading to poor contact rates and even poorer strikeout rates.</p>
<p>Player A, as you have probably figured out by now, is Melvin Upton Jr. The other is, err&#8230; well, it&#8217;s Justin Smoak.</p>
<p>Now, having an offensive profile such as Smoak is not be the greatest thing in the world for most players &#8211; however, there are two major differences between Justin Smoak and Melvin Upton Jr. While Smoak’s main calling card is his offensive production, one could make the argument that Upton’s hitting is the <em>worst</em> part of his game. Upton is one of the fastest players on the Blue Jays and has been an above average defender throughout his career. Both of these tools grade out better than the ones belonging to his currently suggested platoon partner, Ezequiel Carrera. It would be more optimal for the Jays to play Upton and his superior tools everyday, but one thing needs to happen first: he needs to hit well enough to warrant the takeover of a starting role.</p>
<p>Upton struggled to do that after the Jays acquired him last season, but there are signs of a light at the end of the tunnel. Upton was a solid major league player during his injury-shortened 2015 and 2016 first half. He was recently asked about this success <a href="https://theathletic.com/40077/2017/02/23/enigmatic-blue-jays-outfielder-melvin-upton-jr-yearns-for-daily-duty-in-2017/">an article from The Athletic</a>, where he provides this answer when asked about the key to his success:</p>
<p style="text-align: center">“Just a different attitude, man&#8230;They always say this game is 90 per cent mental. I kind of got back to myself, I’ll say that.&#8221;</p>
<p>While Upton isn’t clear about what he went back to, but perhaps we can take a look at his career numbers to get a general sense. There is a lot of noise, but also trends that could potentially be significant:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-Z-Swing-2010-2016.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9507 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-Z-Swing-2010-2016-e1489550077205.jpg" alt="MUJ Z-Swing 2010-2016" width="450" height="337" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2010-2016-e1489548328890.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9508 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2010-2016-e1489550094991.jpg" alt="MUJ WRC+ 2010-2016" width="450" height="336" /></a></p>
<p>Upton’s <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/">Z-Swing%</a> (a player&#8217;s percentage of swings on balls <span style="text-decoration: underline">inside</span> the strike zone) has trended along with his production over the past 7 years. He was a solid offensive player while with Tampa, then took a significant hit in production after joining Atlanta in 2013. This performance was followed with a bounce back in San Diego in 2015, before what appears to be another downtick in offensive production with Toronto in mid-2016.</p>
<p>While swinging at more strikes seems like the simplest of strategies in becoming a better hitter, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Take a look at Upton&#8217;s production last year, in comparison with his <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/">O-Swing%</a> (a player&#8217;s percentage of swings on balls <span style="text-decoration: underline">outside</span> the strike zone) and Z-Swing%:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Upton-2016.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-9541 size-full aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Upton-2016-e1489554140722.jpg" alt="Upton 2016" width="450" height="364" /></a><br />
<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2016-e1489554400571.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9545 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2016-e1489554400571.jpg" alt="MUJ WRC+ 2016" width="450" height="338" /></a></p>
<p>Upton’s Z-Swing% doesn’t do much to explain his 2016 season, as his production fluctuates wildly. However, take a look at his O-Swing%, most noticeably around the game 115 mark. It begins to steadily decline, coinciding with an increase in offensive production that occurred a couple of weeks after joining the Blue Jays. After an abysmal start, Upton began to turn things around, and showed signs that he may still be able to handle a full-time major league role.</p>
<p>Maybe he got back to his old self? In simplest terms that would be swinging at more strikes and less balls. While this seems very anti-climactic and more like a first day topic in Baseball 101, simply having an idea in mind is much different from actually implementing it. This is especially true for a player such as Upton, who historically has had swing and miss issues. By reversing the trends that caused him to struggle in Atlanta, even if it’s only by a marginal amount, Upton is improving on his weaknesses and cracking open the door for potential future success.</p>
<p>Given his recent struggles, it can be hard to see Melvin Upton Jr. producing at the rate of his former self. While his Swing% trends could signal a resurgence, they could also very well mean absolutely nothing, an example of the randomness that occurs in baseball. Can Melvin Upton Jr. be a productive starting outfielder for Toronto? The answer is a resounding maybe. Maybe Upton has rediscovered what made him successful in Tampa&#8230;or, maybe last year was a small blip in the middle of the decline of a solid major league career. Maybe Atlanta was a bad fit for Upton and his performance there should not be considered in projecting his future. Maybe Toronto will be equally unfit for Upton, and his performance will continue to decline.</p>
<p>A good Upton would mean a solid piece in the puzzle for Toronto, a left fielder who would complement the bottom of their lineup with some pop and some speed. While there&#8217;s no guarantee that Upton will be good, giving him the opportunity to do so may very well be the first step. It&#8217;s not as if there&#8217;s much certainty with his proposed &#8220;platoon&#8221; partner either, as Ezequiel Carrera is 25% worse against right handed pitchers than left handed pitchers in his career. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-3vPxKdj6o&amp;ab_channel=kellyclarksonVEVO" target="_blank">Take a chance, make a change, and breakaway</a>.</p>
<p><em>Graphs via <a href="http://fangraphs.com">FanGraphs</a></em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>It&#8217;s Time to Make a Decision on Dalton Pompey</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/07/its-time-to-make-a-decision-on-dalton-pompey/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/07/its-time-to-make-a-decision-on-dalton-pompey/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Feb 2017 14:21:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Left Field]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Platoon]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Position Battles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8890</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Player development is no easy task. Even after developing an overall future projection for a player there&#8217;s an incredulous number of questions that a team has to try and answer: How is the player&#8217;s work ethic? Is he mature enough to handle a tougher challenge at a higher level in the minor leagues? Will he [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Player development is no easy task. Even after developing an overall future projection for a player there&#8217;s an incredulous number of questions that a team has to try and answer:</p>
<p>How is the player&#8217;s work ethic? Is he mature enough to handle a tougher challenge at a higher level in the minor leagues? Will he be a good enough player at his present position to handle it in the major leagues? Will he be able to hit at a higher level? If he can&#8217;t, will the challenge of better pitching help him or hurt him?</p>
<p>In other words, there&#8217;s no flow chart for major league teams to follow. Even if you <em>do</em> take the time to carefully make each of the determinations listed above, there&#8217;s a very good chance that dumb luck will put an unforeseen hitch in the development process and invalidate all of your hard work.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s look at one scenario.</p>
<p>Imagine you&#8217;re an MLB team. You&#8217;ve got a Top 30 prospect who has hit well at every level of the minors. He&#8217;s young for his level, but has shown nothing to cause any doubts. This player plays a premium position on the diamond and it looks like he&#8217;ll be able to handle it at the major league level. This MLB team of yours is quite good and you intend to contend in the coming season. However, there&#8217;s a hole on your roster at a premium defensive position; the same position that your top prospect happens to play.</p>
<p>Do you call up the top prospect and give him a shot at the majors?</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re looking to compete and you haven&#8217;t been given any reason to doubt the player, then yes, you probably call him up.</p>
<p>Replace &#8216;him&#8217; with Dalton Pompey and &#8216;MLB team&#8217; with the Toronto Blue Jays and you&#8217;ve got the precise scenario that the Blue Jays&#8217; front office found themselves in prior to the 2015 season. They took a risk on Dalton Pompey and made him the starting centerfielder on Opening Day 2015.</p>
<p>As we now know, the Dalton Pompey experiment did not go as planned. In just over a month he&#8217;d gone from the Toronto Blue Jays&#8217; Toronto area superstar to taking at-bats in Buffalo (then New Hampshire).</p>
<p>Now, two years later, after a season in which the Blue Jays resigned Pompey to a role of little major league consideration, the consensus seems to be that there is little chance that he could be considered for a roster spot at the beginning of 2017. For example, when asked why Dalton Pompey hasn&#8217;t been given more consideration for Opening Day, <a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/215136284/blue-jays-inbox-can-dalton-pompey-make-team/"><span style="text-decoration: underline">MLB.com&#8217;s Gregor Chisholm noted</span></a> that the Jays still want full time at-bats for Pompey. He also noted another common sentiment, that, &#8220;Pompey is <em><i>only</i></em> 24 years old.&#8221; While not old for a baseball player in general, 24 would be old for a top hitting prospect getting his first full crack at the major leagues.</p>
<p>At some point the Blue Jays have to ask themselves: what are you trying to achieve by continuing to &#8216;develop&#8217; Dalton Pompey in the minors?</p>
<p>It&#8217;d be nice if Pompey had a little more power, sure. It&#8217;d also be nice if he made a little more contact. However, unless the Blue Jays&#8217; are drastically altering Dalton Pompey&#8217;s swing, only repetition and hard work will push him forward. In theory it would be better to work on that repetition in the minors; it&#8217;s a lower pressure environment. But Pompey has already played 170 games at AAA, at a time in which most prospects spend less than a season at the level and some skip it entirely. I&#8217;d argue that there&#8217;s not too much left for him there and he already possesses skills that can be leveraged into value at the major league level.</p>
<p>Conveniently, the Blue Jays also should have an opening for Dalton Pompey&#8217;s precise skill set. At present, the Blue Jays have a glut of outfield options, but none make for a perfect platoon without Dalton&#8217;s inclusion. The most likely LF scenario seems to be a platoon of Melvin Upton Jr. and Ezequiel Carrera, with Carrera filling the left-handed portion of it. However, while Carrera is indeed a left-handed hitter, he&#8217;s not a particularly good platoon partner &#8211; he has been 20 percent better against LHP than RHP in his career. Meanwhile, Dalton Pompey has consistently hit righties better than lefties throughout the minors.</p>
<p>Pompey&#8217;s impressive defense also provides some additional value with Jose Bautista starting in RF. As was noted in 2016, Bautista has become a <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/09/its-time-to-get-jose-bautista-out-of-the-outfield/"><span style="text-decoration: underline">remarkably poor defensive outfielder</span></a>. As such, late in games the Blue Jays would do well to get him out of the outfield, either by swapping him out to first base or taking him off entirely for a defensive replacement. A Pompey-Pillar-Upton outfield in the 8th and 9th innings would go a long way to ensuring that the Blue Jays don&#8217;t lose games late due to defensive errors in the corner outfield; an occurrence that was all too frequent with Bautista and Michael Saunders in 2016.</p>
<p>While this is just one opinion, it&#8217;s the decision I&#8217;d make with Dalton Pompey. But the important piece in this puzzle isn&#8217;t that the Blue Jays follow my advice to a tee, but that the team needs to commit one way or another. If they think he can still reach his previously held potential, then make it clear that he&#8217;s a part of the future, but not in the picture for the present. If not, then make use of the Pompey&#8217;s skills now or trade his talents away. It doesn&#8217;t do anyone any good to leave Dalton Pompey in the middle, unsure of what the future may hold.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">&#8220;I was left to my own devices. Many days fell away with nothing to show. And the walls kept tumbling down in the city that we love. Great clouds roll over the hills bringing darkness from above. But if you close your eyes, does it almost feel like nothing changed at all?&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: center">- <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F90Cw4l-8NY" target="_blank">Bastille&#8217;s Pompeii</a> or Dalton Pompey, you decide.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Ezequiel Carrera and the Need for Another Outfielder</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 12:30:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s no secret that this has been a trying offseason. After the Jays made their quick strike to sign both Lourdes Gurriel and Kendrys Morales, things ground to a halt. It then wasn’t until the Winter Meetings that the team signed Steve Pearce. While that move was a good one for the club, it was [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s no secret that this has been a trying offseason. After the Jays made their quick strike to sign both Lourdes Gurriel and Kendrys Morales, things ground to a halt. It then wasn’t until the Winter Meetings that the team signed Steve Pearce. While that move was a good one for the club, it was met with disappointment from the fanbase because it meant that Edwin Encarnacion was definitely not coming back, not matter how much his market fell (watching him sign with the team that knocked them out of the ALCS didn’t help). Even when it finally seemed like a ray of light had shone through the darkness with <a title="Report: Bautista “Nearing Deal” with Blue Jays" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/16/report-bautista-nearing-deal-with-blue-jays/" target="_blank">news of a Jose Bautista contract</a>, it&#8217;s been accompanied by 36 hours of “when will this actually become official.”</p>
<p>With all of that, it can be hard to look ahead to the next move, but look ahead we must, because this team isn’t quite finished yet. The standard school of thought seems to be that the Jays will now <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/deal-jose-bautista-far-reaching-impact-blue-jays/" target="_blank">shift their focus to depth and their relief corps</a>, but that seems premature.</p>
<p>The Jays are lucky to have things more or less settled at eight of the nine offensive positions, but the outfield still needs help. Kevin Pillar is locked into centre field, and assuming Bautista eventually signs, he will be safely placed in right. The issue is with the apparent duo in left.</p>
<p>This all stems from the presence of Ezequiel Carrera. Ezequiel Carrera should not be on the big league roster.</p>
<p>This isn’t to disparage the man they call Zeke. He made great strides last year to become a viable major leaguer. He improved his defence dramatically, rating as an above-average outfielder for the first time in his career (by every available metric). There’s also no denying that he was a standout performer in the postseason, hitting .303/.343/.515 when much of the lineup was struggling to do much of anything.</p>
<p>That’s a very good fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>The problem, however, is that Carrera can’t hit against right-handed pitching.</p>
<p>This may seem counter intuitive considering that Carrera hits from the left side, but he hit just .218/.307/.320 against righties in 2016, following a line of .266/.318/.357 in 2015. Now, Upton hasn’t been any better, hitting .235/.281/.379 the last two years against same-side pitching.</p>
<p>The difference is that everything that Carrera does <em>well</em>, Melvin Upton Jr. can do better. Upton hits for more power. He’s a better overall hitter against left-handed pitching. He plays better defense in the corners. He’s a better base stealer. Simply put, Melvin Upton is a better player than Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>If Carrera and Upton’s struggles were against southpaws, it wouldn’t be as big of an issue. Carrera could stick around as an occasional sub and pinch runner and his <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/12/toronto-blue-jays-arbitration-tracker/" target="_blank">$1.1625M arbitration-avoiding contract</a> would be a fine value. But approximately 3/4s of all plate appearances for a regular player come against right-handed pitchers. That’s way too many at-bats to give away.</p>
<p>This means that the Blue Jays need another outfielder. Sadly, this also means that Carrera has to go. The roster only holds so many spots and he adds nothing that Upton doesn’t already provide.</p>
<p>The Jays need someone who can hit against right-handed pitching, but they also need someone who can handle the position defensively. With Bautista’s limitations in right field, having a good defender in left would allow the team to shift things around to help mitigate the aging slugger’s lack of range. Steve Pearce can&#8217;t really be counted on to be this option, as his outfield range is limited and he has never shown the health to handle everyday work (since he&#8217;ll also get every AB vs LHP at first base&#8230;and vs RHP if he <em>can</em> stay healthy).</p>
<p>Obviously there aren’t a lot of players on the market who fit that bill. The Jays apparently <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/blue-jays-have-considered-trading-for-andrew-mccutchen.html" target="_blank">kicked the tires on Andrew McCutchen</a>, but that went nowhere. They’ve also been rumoured to have e<a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/31500/mlb-rumor-central-blue-jays-interested-in-curtis-granderson" target="_blank">xpressed interest in Curtis Granderson</a> and <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-trade-rumors-rockies-blue-jays-talking-blackmon-stroman-deal/" target="_blank">Charlie Blackmon</a>.</p>
<p>With the Bautista signing, however, the Jays likely can’t afford to be swimming in those expensive pools. Whether you believe the payroll budget is $160M or $165M, the Jays don’t have enough for a star. Thankfully, there are a couple of players that could fit the bill.</p>
<p>The first guy this team should be going after is Angel Pagan. The former Giants centre fielder has had his troubles staying healthy the last few years, but he wouldn’t be asked to shoulder a starter’s workload. He’s not young by any stretch (he’ll play the entire year at 35), and he can’t play centre anymore, but the metrics liked his work in left field. More importantly, he can more than handle his own against righties; He hit .282/.352/.414 against them last year, with a .286/.339/.412 line for his career.</p>
<p>Additionally, Pagan is a switch-hitter, which helps if Bautista or Pillar needs a day off against a left-hander, or if the opposing team is bringing in specialists late in the game. And because of his health issues, Pagan shouldn’t cost too much money.</p>
<p>If the Jays can’t get Pagan or anyone like him, they should still try to trade Carrera (he seems unlikely to clear waivers). That’s because they potentially have someone better sitting in AAA: Dalton Pompey.</p>
<p>Pompey hasn’t exactly shown much during his brief MLB career, with a line of just .218/.282/.416 against righties (though that’s still better than Carrera thanks to the slugging), but because he was rushed to the majors in 2014, we tend to forget that Pompey is only 24 years (and will be for the entire season). Throughout his minor league career he has shown himself to be a very patient hitter who can make solid contact, even showing a little pop every now and then. He has also turned into a weapon on the basepaths and he has the range of a plus centre fielder (with +5 DRS in just 21 games) in a corner. You’re getting a player with Ezequiel Carrera as his floor, with a ceiling of so much more.</p>
<p>Ideally Pompey would be playing every day in Buffalo (which is why going outside the organization is the better play), but it has reached a point in his development that it&#8217;s time to weigh the needs of the big league club against his future prospects. This club is built to win now and if he can help, Pompey needs to be with the major league team.</p>
<p>Whether it’s Pagan, Pompey, or someone we don’t even know is available, the simple truth is that the Jays cannot enter the season with the status quo in the outfield. This lineup is oh-so-close to being very, very good again, and to stop short would be a disservice.</p>
<p>Go get it done, Messrs. Atkins and Shapiro.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays&#8217; Canadian Trio on the Playoffs in Toronto</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/03/the-blue-jays-canadian-trio-on-the-playoffs-in-toronto/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/03/the-blue-jays-canadian-trio-on-the-playoffs-in-toronto/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Oct 2016 11:22:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto – The postseason is the biggest stage that Major League Baseball has to offer. It’s a time of high intensity, high pressure, and high stakes. Every little detail matters. In the course of a season, or even a game, a misplay or poor decision can go unnoticed. Lost in the greater context of events [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toronto – The postseason is the biggest stage that Major League Baseball has to offer. It’s a time of high intensity, high pressure, and high stakes. Every little detail matters. In the course of a season, or even a game, a misplay or poor decision can go unnoticed. Lost in the greater context of events that a marathon season requires. In the postseason those decisions and plays are scrutinized to the Nth degree.</p>
<p>With those stakes comes a lot of pressure. Not just in the postseason but also those meaningful games down the stretch to get there. There’s not one player in the league that doesn&#8217;t want to be in that spotlight, living under the intensity of those must-win games.</p>
<p>Russell Martin has become no stranger to playing under the spotlight on baseball’s biggest stage. With the Blue Jays having clinched a playoff spot Sunday Martin will make his sixth straight postseason appearance and ninth overall in his 11-year career and he wouldn&#8217;t have it any other way.</p>
<p>“You battle your butt off all year to earn the right to play the most meaningful games possible,” Martin said last week. “Just the opportunity to play under those circumstances is all you need.</p>
<p>“Derek Jeter said it best ‘you have 162 games of practice before the real season starts.’ And that’s what it feels like. It’s like you earn your right to play under the big lights.”</p>
<blockquote><p>“Derek Jeter said it best ‘you have 162 games of practice before the real season starts.’ And that’s what it feels like. It’s like you earn your right to play under the big lights.” &#8211; Russell Martin</p></blockquote>
<p>While Martin has played nearly 50 games under those postseason lights for Michael Saunders Tuesday&#8217;s Wild Card game at the Rogers Centre versus the Baltimore Orioles will be his first. A sprinkler head in Spring Training last season spoiled his chances of embarking on Toronto’s historic run to the postseason in 2015, leaving the 29-year-old Canadian with bittersweet feelings and pinned to the Jays’ bench as the club’s biggest cheerleader.</p>
<p>After a healthy 2016 where he set career highs in at-bats, games played, and home runs, Saunders is looking forward to making up for last year’s freak accident and playing under those bright lights.</p>
<p>“(The playoffs), that’s what I’m looking forward to,” Saunders said. “I think I was more nervous than the guys were who were actually playing with me sitting on the bench and knowing all I could do was watch. That’s what I’m looking forward to. I know it’s what we’re all looking forward to. This year around, for me personally, actually being able to contribute and being on the field is a big deal for me.</p>
<p>“It’s why we train all off season, go through Spring Training, play five months every day is to try and play meaningful games in September.”</p>
<p>For Saunders this is only the second time he’s had the chance to experience firsthand impact games down the stretch. His old club, the Seattle Mariners, finished one game back of the Oakland Athletics for the second Wild Card in 2014. Through it all though the Mariners were never in the position the Jays were; controlling their destiny in their own hands with a mere handful of games left.</p>
<p>Despite having little experience in those type of games down the stretch Saunders refused to let the pressure or the high intensity of the game get to him, the game itself is the same after all.</p>
<p>“We don’t feel any pressure. This is why we play the game,” Saunders said before the Jays&#8217; 5-1 win over the Orioles last Tuesday. “To get to this level I feel like you&#8217;ve got to learn to slow your heart beat down a little bit, and not get too amped up. So for us, we understand the importance of this series but this is just another game for us.”</p>
<p>Martin, who’s seen just about everything in the postseason except the World Series, echoes Saunders’ sentiment.</p>
<p>“I don’t make any conscious changes (this time of year),” Martin said. “I think everybody is prone to reacting to their environment. The environment becomes a little bit more excited, a little more amped up. So that might affect me a little bit. But other than that I feel like I just go out there, play my game, play hard, and play to win.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I just go out there, play my game, play hard, and play to win.&#8221; &#8211; Russell Martin</p></blockquote>
<p>“It’s easy to get excited. When you rush things you tend to make mistakes. I think the best thing you can do sometimes is just step back, gather your thoughts, get your breathing where it needs to be, lower your heart rate if you need to do that. But ultimately you just go out there and do things that you&#8217;ve been successful at and keep doing those things.”</p>
<p>While that may be easy for veteran players like Martin and Saunders, for Dalton Pompey, who’s spent the majority of his 59 Major League Baseball games in high intensity moments in September and October, it doesn&#8217;t come quite as easy for him. He hasn&#8217;t had the time to establish himself as a Major Leaguer, and in reality is experiencing baptism by fire. He just has to hope all that he’s learned in the minors will translate to success at the game’s highest level.</p>
<p>As a result, nerves play a role for the 23-year-old Mississauga, ON native and he feels the pressure of the moment.</p>
<p>“Yeah, I do (feel the pressure),” Pompey said. “Every time I run out there to run for something I get nervous. But once I’m on the base it feels like any other game to me.</p>
<p>“You still feel it. You still feel nerves throughout the whole season any game that you’re in. I mean, if you don’t have nerves I don’t think you should really be playing.”</p>
<blockquote><p>“Growing up here I never really saw a winning team, so to be part of a winning team (in Toronto) for a change and actually be on the team is special to me, special to my family.” &#8211; Dalton Pompey</p></blockquote>
<p>While the elder Canadian statesmen of the team refuses to call it pressure, they admit that they can become over-excited and know the reality of the moment and in turn have to consciously try and stay calm and focus on what’s in front of them. With over 2,100 games between them they&#8217;ve had the luxury of dealing with these situations head on for years and have found their own method of dealing with it and mentally blocking out any form of pressure.</p>
<p>Despite appearing in less than three percent of the regular season games Martin and Saunders has, Pompey has already experienced more postseason time than Saunders and gone equally as far as Martin ever has. A quirky stat that has Pompey out hitting Saunders in the postseason despite just one at-bat in the game’s brightest lights. Having accomplished the feat with the team he grew up cheering for makes that reality even more special.</p>
<p>“It’s obviously a great thing to be part of a playoff roster, a playoff race,” Pompey said. “Getting that experience is only going to be invaluable to me for the rest of my career. Obviously, I’d like to be here more than just September, but I’m grateful to be here altogether because some guys don’t get that opportunity.</p>
<p>“Growing up here I never really saw a winning team, so to be part of a winning team (in Toronto) for a change and actually be on the team is special to me, special to my family.”</p>
<p>Postseason experience and individual accomplishments aside, this trio, along with their teammates have one goal in mind. Martin admits that despite his personal regular season success baseball is a team sport, and to accomplish greater things one has to look beyond personal statistics.</p>
<p>“Luck is definitely (a factor), because it’s not just one person that’s going to change the whole season,” Martin said. “It takes a group of guys that share the same mindset, that work together to achieve one goal. I think that’s what you have on this team. Obviously, this team is made up of individuals that have to accomplish their own things individually, but I think that we’re all united with the fact that we all want to win, and you can sense it in this room.”</p>
<p>With a Wild Card date looming, they&#8217;ll continue to work towards that ultimate goal.</p>
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		<title>Centre Field is Open; Dalton Pompey is Nowhere to Be Found</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/11/centre-field-is-open-dalton-pompey-is-nowhere-to-be-found/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2016 15:17:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5423</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hi, I&#8217;m Matt. You may know me from &#8220;Dalton Pompey Unjustly Demoted to AAA&#8220;, in addition to a host of other pieces in which I&#8217;ve advocated for Pompey&#8217;s placement on the Blue Jays&#8217; 25-man roster. As you may be able to tell, I&#8217;m a bit of a Pompey fan. I&#8217;d like to think that it&#8217;s [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi, I&#8217;m Matt. You may know me from &#8220;<a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/roster-reflection-dalton-pompey-unjustly-demoted-to-aaa/" target="_blank">Dalton Pompey Unjustly Demoted to AAA</a>&#8220;, in addition to a host of other pieces in which I&#8217;ve advocated for Pompey&#8217;s placement on the Blue Jays&#8217; 25-man roster. As you may be able to tell, I&#8217;m a bit of a Pompey fan. I&#8217;d like to think that it&#8217;s entirely objective, but there&#8217;s almost certainly an attachment at this point. However, it wasn&#8217;t always that way. At one point, far fetched as it may sound, Dalton Pompey was heralded as the centre fielder of the future. In fact, Chris Mitchell at FanGraphs took that designation one step further, asking if Pompey was instead <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dalton-pompey-center-fielder-of-the-present/" target="_blank">the centre fielder of the present</a>. Dalton Pompey looked like he had an extremely good set of tools, and people were objectively excited about him.</p>
<p>In 2010, the Blue Jays drafted Dalton Pompey in the 16th round of the major league draft, out of John Fraser Secondary School in Mississauga, Ontario. He would finish that season in the Gulf Coast League, struggling to have much hitting success in the 11 games he started. By 2012, Pompey had moved up to Low-A in the Midwest League, exhibiting an advanced approach and contact skills. By 2014, he had shown enough promise to merit <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/futures-game-rosters/#M70l0hyRqpmuBJKf.97" target="_blank">inclusion in the Futures Game</a> at Target Field. By 2015, Pompey had shot up prospect lists, landing at No. 42 on <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25538" target="_blank">Baseball Prospectus&#8217; Top 101 prospects</a>.</p>
<p>He was speedy, he had a great approach, he played a solid centre field, and scouts believed that <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-watch-dalton-pompey/" target="_blank">he could develop some power</a>. That, and the fact that the Blue Jays alternative was a pre-awesome Kevin Pillar, were strong contributors to why Dalton Pompey started for Toronto in centre field on Opening Day 2015.</p>
<p>It was all downhill from there.</p>
<p>In 103 plate appearances he had a .223 BA, a .233 TAv, and two home runs. On May 1st, the Blue Jays optioned him to AAA, in favour of Kevin Pillar as the starting centre fielder, and Ezequiel Carrera as a platoon/bench option. Given that Pillar went on to produce 3.8 WARP in 2015, it ended up being the right decision. Although, as I said at the time (and still believe), Pompey has the higher upside.</p>
<p>On the defensive side of things, the advanced stats were mixed on their opinions of him. In 216 1/3 innings in the outfield, he posted an FRAA of 0.4 and a UZR of -0.2, but a DRS of 6. He&#8217;d made some excellent plays in centre field, and is, to this day, a true centre fielder. However, <a href="http://www.thescore.com/news/748935" target="_blank">he also admitted to</a>, &#8220;playing somewhat scared.&#8221; Scared baseball. That was the narrative that followed Dalton to the minors. The public made their own inferences on the quote, suggesting that it may have come about as a result of being the Blue Jays&#8217; &#8220;Hometown Hero&#8221; before even getting a chance to prove himself.</p>
<p>Since the demotion, the Jays have paid Pompey little attention; mostly because they haven&#8217;t needed to. He did get the call-up in September 2015 as the rosters expanded. However, he was relegated to a pinch running role for a majority of the month, before getting a few starts in CF as the Jays were resting their starters for the playoffs.</p>
<p>In 2016, when Jose Bautista first went down to injury, it seemed possible that Pompey would get playing time, but Ezequiel Carrera <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/ezequiel-carrera-deserves-to-be-a-full-time-outfielder/" target="_blank">established himself as an improved player </a>before that could happen. Although, even if Carrera had faltered, it&#8217;s never really made sense to call Pompey up to play a corner outfield spot; his value lays in his ability to play an impressive centre field.</p>
<p>With Kevin Pillar still providing enough defensive value (<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70093" target="_blank">by most metrics</a>), there was never a place for the Mississauga outfielder on the 25-man roster. Then, on August 8th, the Jays&#8217; primary centre fielder over the last calendar year <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/08/08/blue-jays-place-kevin-pillar-on-15-day-disabled-list.html" target="_blank">hit the 15-day disabled list with a ligament sprain in his left thumb</a>. Given that Ezequiel Carrera was already on the disabled list, and that <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/10/jays-jose-bautista-goes-back-on-dl-with-knee-injury" target="_blank">Jose Bautista would join him two days after Pillar did</a>, there was finally a spot for Dalton Pompey.</p>
<p>It was not only a chance for Pompey to re-prove himself, but it was an opportunity to provide real value to this big league club. At times his hitting fluctuates, but in the long run, you can always count on his centre field defense. In 2013, he won <a href="http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131001&amp;content_id=62276034&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;vkey=pr_t499" target="_blank">a minor league Gold Glove Award for his work in the outfield</a>. In 2014, following his call-up, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/expect-blue-jays-dalton-pompey/#ZjP2eDIHMqJ0XRty.97" target="_blank">Baseball America noted that </a>he got, &#8220;plus ratings on his arm and defense,&#8221; and that, potentially plus centre field defense would be his carrying tool.</p>
<p>The Jays currently have four outfielders on their roster: Michael Saunders, Melvin Upton Jr., Junior Lake, and Darrell Cecciliani. Michael Saunders has played centre field, but that was long before his knee injury and subsequent surgery. Melvin Upton has played centre field, but has been anywhere from average to below average at the position. Junior Lake is a converted infielder who had one offensive hot streak in 2011. Darrell Ceccilani is 26, has 81 major league plate appearances, and you almost certainly wouldn&#8217;t be able to pick his headshot out of a pile.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Dalton Pompey is toiling away in AAA.</p>
<p>Dalton&#8217;s detractors would note that he hasn&#8217;t blown the cover off the ball in Buffalo. While that may be true, he also doesn&#8217;t have anything in particular to prove at the level either; he doesn&#8217;t appear to be learning any more offensively there than he would in Toronto.</p>
<p>There is no true centre fielder on the 25-man roster.</p>
<p>Three of the Blue Jays&#8217; top four outfielders are on the disabled list.</p>
<p>Dalton Pompey is nowhere to be found.</p>
<p>If this isn&#8217;t the situation to have him try another shot at the major leagues, then there may never be while he remains in this organization. Pompey&#8217;s still just 23, and has the approach, speed, and defence to be an above average major league outfielder. If he doesn&#8217;t get that chance in Toronto, I sure hope it happens somewhere else.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Minor League Update: June 11th Edition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/11/minor-league-update-june-11th-edition/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/11/minor-league-update-june-11th-edition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Jun 2016 16:25:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor League Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angel Perdomo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alfford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Connor Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3678</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[News News from Dunedin last night trumps everything else you are likely to have on your mind, in terms of the Blue Jays farm system, and this is what we know as of late Friday night, per MiLB.com: DUNEDIN, FL - CF Anthony Alford was taken off the field on a stretcher with a neck [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>News</h3>
<p>News from Dunedin last night trumps everything else you are likely to have on your mind, in terms of the Blue Jays farm system, and this is what we know as of late Friday night, per <a href="http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20160610&amp;content_id=183383562&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;vkey=news_t424&amp;sid=t424">MiLB.com</a>:</p>
<p>DUNEDIN, FL -<em> <b>CF Anthony Alford</b> was taken off the field on a stretcher with a neck injury in the top of the 12<sup>th</sup> inning in Dunedin&#8217;s 3-2 loss to the St. Lucie Mets (29-30) Friday night. A wild play on an infield fly in the 12<sup>th</sup> scored the go-ahead run for the Mets and took Alford out of the game. Alford will undergo tests at Mease Dunedin Hospital where he is talking and moving his limbs.</em></p>
<p>According to Jeff Blair, Alford and Richard Urena collided on the play.</p>
<h3><strong>Pitchers of the Week</strong></h3>
<p>1. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=622780#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL">Angel Perdomo</a> &#8211; LHP &#8211; Lansing (Low A)</p>
<p>Week:  2 GS , 11.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 14 K 2.45 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9<br />
YTD:  10 GS, 54.1 IP, 28 H 10 ER, 24 BB, 68 K, 1.66 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9</p>
<p>Perdomo has been such a regular on this list that I&#8217;m running out of new things to say. Often, on the hitters particularly, I&#8217;ll be able to say &#8220;the last 3 weeks he&#8217;s&#8230;&#8221; or whatever, but Perdomo hasn&#8217;t had and low point in the season to date from, save an appearance on May 7 in which he gave up 2 ER in 2/3 of an inning during a game in which he had no control and walked 3, allowing his  pitch count in the inning to get too high. That&#8217;s been his only &#8220;off&#8221; appearance all year.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=641632#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL">Conner Greene</a>- RHP &#8211; Dunedin (High A)</p>
<p>Week: 1 GS , 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K<br />
YTD: 60.2 IP, 62 H, 21 ER, 30 BB, 36 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.52 WHIP,  5.3 K/9, 4.5 BB/9</p>
<p>In a down week for impressive pitching performances, I&#8217;m taking advantage of the fact that Greene had a pretty good game to highlight the guy who came into the season ranked as the Jays best pitching prospect. But, just based on stats, he&#8217;s maybe been passed by by 3 or 4 other guys. The sample is, of course, far too small to make such a judgment, we don&#8217;t know, as bystanders, whether the team has him working on some particular skill that is more important to them than raw stats for example. But Greene certainly has had a reversal by the numbers.<br />
He has an IP total that46% of what he threw in 2015, but he has 77% as many walks, and has already given up 5 homers whereas he gave up only 6 all of last year  (and that in a pitchers league). By contrast, he had a 7.8 K/9 last year which is down to 5.3 this season. He pitched better Wednesday night than he has since April 23, but whether this is a step forward or an outlier remains to be seen.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=656887#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL">Sean Reid-Foley </a>- RHP – Lansing (Low A)</p>
<p>Week: 1 GS , 6 IP, 2  H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K<br />
YTD: 10 GS, 51.0 IP, 39 H, 18 ER, 21 BB, 55 K, 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 9.7 K/9,  3.7 BB/9</p>
<p>As with Perdomo, there&#8217;s repetition here, a couple of other pitchers in the system had pretty good games this week, but it&#8217;s worth choosing the familiar name if for no other reason than to point out the factoid that he&#8217;s only walked 2 (as opposed to 22k) in the last 21 IP.</p>
<h3><strong>Hitters of the Week</strong></h3>
<p>1. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=592647#/splits/R/hitting/2016/MINORS">Dalton Pompey</a> &#8211; CF &#8211; &#8211; Buffalo</p>
<p>Week: 13/25, 1 1B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 SB, 5 BB, 3 K, .520 AVG, .600 OBP, .560 SLG<br />
Season: 44/141, 7 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 8 SB, 18 BB, 27 K .312 AVG, .390 OBP, .383 SLG</p>
<p>After his third stint on the DL in the early going, the problem with Pompey was easy to diagnose &#8211; he needed an extended run of playing time to get his rhythm back. After a couple of hitless games coming off that inactivity (he&#8217;d been 1 for 28 over the previous 3 weeks) , it apparently clicked in real good. In 104 plate appearances since May 8 (have you noticed that every good hitter in Buffalo blew up right around May 8?) he&#8217;s hitting .359/.433/.457/.890 and it&#8217;s hard to find any fault with him save that there&#8217;s a lack of over-the-fence power to this point.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=657041#/gamelogs/R/hitting/2016/MINORS">Lane Thomas</a> &#8211; CF &#8211; Lansing</p>
<p>Week: 7/22, 0 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 0 SB, 2 BB, 9 k, .333 AVG, .360 OBP, .541 SLG<br />
YTD: 37/181, 8 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 13 SB, 30 BB, 65 K, .204 AVG, .324 OBP, .359 SLG</p>
<p>In every draft (so far!) there&#8217;s a player or three that are drafted after the first three rounds (when everyone is supposedly good) that I read enough good things about to develop an affection for watching them develop.  In 2014, Thomas was that guy for me. He was taken in the fifth round and looked pretty darn good in short season ball that year (he had an .814 OPS in Bluefield in 18g). But last season, while dealing with a series of minor injuries, he was abysmal in Lansing before being pushed back to Vancouver where he was still pretty bad.  Up until the last 10 games, it looked like this was going to be a re-run. It&#8217;s a really small sample, fueled by an unsustainable HR rate, but it might be a sign he&#8217;s getting himself back together.</p>
<p>3.<a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t463&amp;player_id=621037#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL"> Jason Leblebijian</a> &#8211; INF &#8211; New Hampshire (AA)</p>
<p>Week: 9/20, 2 2B, 3 HR, 0 SB, 3 BB, 1 K, .450 AVG, .522 OBP, 1.000 SLG<br />
Dunedin: 59/200, 7 2B, 6 HR, 6 SB, 18 BB, 59 K, .295 AVG, .362 OBP, .420 SLG</p>
<p>Leblebijian is probably best understood as a nine-month younger version of Andy Burns. Both are RH hitting infielders, drafted out of college, both are listed at 6&#8217;2&#8243;, 205 lbs, and they have almost identical career OBP figures. Both play all over the infield, having been drafted as shortstops, with Burns having 176 more plate appearances, having been drafted a year earlier, and also having shown a bit more power. Leblebijian is making a very good impression in his AA debut.</p>
<h3><strong>Other Minor Notes</strong></h3>
<p>While these posts are typically for high performers, or top prospects, since a couple of the big names (Jon Harris and Francisco Rios) didn&#8217;t pitch at all this week, I&#8217;ve included a couple of pitching lines on the charts below that normally wouldn&#8217;t qualify. One is a lightly regarded guy who keeps plugging along with pretty fair numbers, who might end up being a shuttle-rider in a year or two &#8211; the other is a guy who had some buzz before his Tommy John surgery but has been pretty much a train wreck this year attempting to come back. I&#8217;ll trust you to suss out which is which.</p>
<h3>Other Stat Lines of Interest</h3>
<p><strong>HITTERS</strong></p>
<p><strong>Last Week</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Hitter</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>AVG</th>
<th>OBP</th>
<th>SLG</th>
<th>HR</th>
<th>SB</th>
<th>BB</th>
<th>K</th>
<th>TB</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rowdy Tellez</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>1B</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>.154</td>
<td>.313</td>
<td>.154</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dwight Smith, Jr</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>LF</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>.300</td>
<td>.323</td>
<td>.367</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Anthony Alford</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>CF</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>.000</td>
<td>.000</td>
<td>.167</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Richard Urena</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>SS</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>.235</td>
<td>.381</td>
<td>.529</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>13</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Max Pentecost</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>DH</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>.190</td>
<td>.227</td>
<td>.238</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Season</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Hitter</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>PA</th>
<th>AVG</th>
<th>OBP</th>
<th>SLG</th>
<th>HR</th>
<th>SB</th>
<th>BB</th>
<th>K</th>
<th>TB</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rowdy Tellez</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>1B</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>.237</td>
<td>.355</td>
<td>.449</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>48</td>
<td>89</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dwight Smith, Jr</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>LF</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>220</td>
<td>.270</td>
<td>.333</td>
<td>.395</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>41</td>
<td>79</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Anthony Alford</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>CF</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>134</td>
<td>.205</td>
<td>.277</td>
<td>.262</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Richard Urena</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>SS</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>52</td>
<td>224</td>
<td>.243</td>
<td>.298</td>
<td>.390</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>82</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Max Pentecost</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>DH</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>106</td>
<td>.265</td>
<td>.318</td>
<td>.306</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>30</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>PITCHERS</strong></p>
<p><strong>Last Week</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Pitcher</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>ERA</th>
<th>K/9</th>
<th>BB/9</th>
<th>WHIP</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>5.40</td>
<td>12.6</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>1.80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Shane Dawson</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>4.89</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>1.20</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeremy Gabryszwski</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1.50</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>1.33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tom Robson</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>31.50</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>4.50</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ryan Borucki</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3.86</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>1.29</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Season</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" style="height: 225px" border="1" width="532">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Pitcher</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>IP</th>
<th>ERA</th>
<th>K/9</th>
<th>BB/9</th>
<th>WHIP</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>3.14</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>3.3</td>
<td>0.81</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Shane Dawson</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>44.2</td>
<td>3.43</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>1.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jeremy Gabryszwski</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>70</td>
<td>3.60</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>2.1</td>
<td>1.17</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tom Robson</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>18.2</td>
<td>9.16</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>11.1</td>
<td>2.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ryan Borucki*</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>44.0</td>
<td>7.98</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Coming up this week, I&#8217;ll have a look at the short-season rosters as the Vancouver Canadians begin their season next Friday. Soon there will be a lot of other interesting prospects to talk about in the field. In particular, all eyes will be on where VGJ and pitcher Justin Maese are assigned.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Minor League Update: April 15th to May 11th Edition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/12/minor-league-survey-1/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/12/minor-league-survey-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 12 May 2016 15:45:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor League Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angel Perdomo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Antolin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Rios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jon Berti]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Davis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juan Kelly]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Reid-Foley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2496</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This week BP Toronto is bringing back the Weekly Minor League Update. The format is slightly revised but if you followed the old Blue Jays Plus site, you’ll recognize the framework. What’s different? I’ll be choosing up to three top hitters and pitchers each week, instead of one. And the Other minor league notes section [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week BP Toronto is bringing back the Weekly Minor League Update. The format is slightly revised but if you followed the old Blue Jays Plus site, you’ll recognize the framework. What’s different? I’ll be choosing up to three top hitters and pitchers each week, instead of one. And the Other minor league notes section will lean towards placing recent performance in the context of year-to-date work rather than just being a snapshot of some random hot or cold streak. Of course, for this first edition, with a full month worth of states, I’m probably going to say a lot about the entire month this time, not just the most recent week. In this and future entries, which beginning with next week will be appearing on Saturdays, all references to current stats are through the games of the previous Wednesday. For this post, I used game stats through Sunday.</p>
<p><strong>Pitchers of the Week/Month</strong></p>
<p>1. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=642590">Francisco Rios</a> &#8211; RHP &#8211; Lansing (Low A)</p>
<p>6 G &#8211; 30 IP &#8211; 1.20 ERA &#8211; 0.97 WHIP &#8211; 12.9 K/9 &#8211; 2.4 BB/9</p>
<p>In the time I spent reviewing Top Prospect lists in preparation for last week’s Aggregate List, some of them 30 or more names deep, only one of them made mention of Rios. To be fair, a look at his stats coming into this season would not have indicated there was any reason to. But the 2012 signee out of Mexico seems to have discovered something as he’s completely dominated the Midwest League in the first month of 2016. He had his best outing yet on Friday, which happened to be his 21st birthday, striking out 10 betters in 5.1 IP. Coming into the season, his K/9 was 7.6, and his BB/9 was 3.3 and a completely unimpressive 4.84 ERA over three years. Whether or not this is something promising, or a mirage, remains to be seen. Reports say he’s using four quality pitches now and the Blue Jays have decided to let him try his luck at Dunedin. His promotion was announced earlier in the week.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=656887#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL">Sean Reid-Foley</a> &#8211; RHP &#8211; Lansing</p>
<p>4 G &#8211; 18.2 IP &#8211; 1.93 ERA &#8211; 1.13 WHIP &#8211; 9.6 K/9 &#8211; 4.8 BB/9</p>
<p>In contrast to the unheralded Rios, Reid-Foley has had one of the highest profiles in the organization as a 2014 draftee out of high school, and he was surprisingly assigned to full season last spring. The book on him is well known and a not-unfamiliar tale for pitchers with his ability. If he can minimize the free pass and control the strike zone he’ll earn the considerable praise that’s being heaped on him. The hidden story of the season so far is the (small sample caveat obviously in force) trend in a positive direction on that front. In his last two outings he struck out 12 and walked 2 over 8 innings.  He&#8217;s just off a stint on the 7-Day DL.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=622780">Angel Perdomo</a> &#8211; LHP &#8211; Lansing</p>
<p>6 G &#8211; 23.1 IP &#8211; 2.31 ERA &#8211; 1.03 WHIP &#8211; 12.4 K/9 &#8211; 4.6 BB/9</p>
<p>Perdomo was a huge (6’6”) specimen signed out of the DR in December 2011, and he was brought along quite slowly. He accumulated almost 80 IP over three seasons on the lowest level (two in the Dominican Summer League, then another in the Gulf Coast League) and one might have been forgiven for assuming the team saw something they didn’t like. However, he broke out last year in a season split between Bluefield and Vancouver and he’s only increased that dominance in 2016. That said, he suffered his first setback Saturday on his 22nd birthday, so watch to see how he deals with that adversity.</p>
<p><strong>Hitters of the Week/</strong></p>
<p>1. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=622806#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL">Juan Kelly</a> &#8211; C/1B &#8211; Lansing</p>
<p>99 PA &#8211; .293/.353/.522 &#8211; 2 HR &#8211; 2/2 SB &#8211; 7 BB &#8211; 21 K</p>
<p>A slender 21 year old Dominican who, like Perdomo, got his first professional work in 2012, Kelly is a relatively light hitter but he has lots of room to get stronger. His best talent so far is a robust career .358 OBP (though his walk rate is down a bit this year). At the moment, he’s part of a trio of hitters (along with Gunner Heidt and Andrew Guillote) carrying the Lugnuts offense.  He’s listed as a catcher, but also gets time at 1B when others are behind the dish.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=542932">Jonathan Davis</a> &#8211; OF &#8211; Dunedin (High A)</p>
<p>115 PA &#8211; .269/.424/.484 &#8211; 4 HR &#8211; 9/10 SB &#8211; 22 BB &#8211; 28 K</p>
<p>One of the other Davises playing the outfield in the Toronto minor leagues (there are 3 in all), the 2013 15th round selection is another unheralded player but in a month of largely ordinary, or worse, hitting performances he’s the one doing almost everything right. Even though he’s tied with Rowdy Tellez for most walks in April, and only Dom Brown has more homers, he’s never shown a particular talent for either before, so he won’t be climbing the prospect lists just yet.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=542932">Jon Berti</a> &#8211; 2B &#8211; New Hampshire (AA)</p>
<p>91 PA &#8211; .291/.411/.405 &#8211; 1 HR &#8211; 14/18 SB &#8211; 12 BB &#8211; 13 K (AA)</p>
<p>22 PA &#8211; .150/.227/.350 &#8211; 1 HR &#8211; 2/2 SB &#8211; 2 BB &#8211; 3 K (AAA)</p>
<p>Berti is a guy who, if you made a long enough prospect list, you’d start considering once you got into the 40s or so. And that&#8217;s only because he’s a gifted fielder and a very skilled baserunner with enough speed to steal 30 or more bases every year (his career high was 56 for Dunedin in 2013) and he already has 16 this year in the first month of the season alone. Berti, a college draftee, was moving one level at a time, reaching AA in 2014 at the age of 24. He started 2015 back there, before receiving a mid-season promotion to AAA Buffalo. He didn’t put the bat on the ball as well at the higher level, but one would have assumed the natural move would have been to assign him there, rather than back in AA this season, but with the Jays having packed the AAA roster with veteran talent, there was no room. All this is to express a bit of caution about his April performance. He’s 26 now, having his third go at AA, so it’s not a true reflection of his ability anymore. Still, under the right circumstances, probably in a different organization, he could get at least a little occasional major league time one of these years.</p>
<p><strong>Other Minor Notes</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=546990#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL">Dalton Pompey</a> &#8211; OF &#8211; Buffalo (AAA)</p>
<p>59 PA &#8211; .226/.305/.264 &#8211; 0 HR &#8211; 2/2 SB &#8211; 6 BB &#8211; 11 K</p>
<p>Open the season sidelined with a foot injury suffered in late spring, played a week, had to sit again for five days, came back for 2 games then sat again for eight days. He’s on his third game back and went 2/4 on Sunday to break up a disjointed stretch of games in which he went 1 for 28. Badly needs an extended run of games to get on track.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=542884#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL">Dustin Antolin</a> &#8211; RP &#8211; Buffalo<br />
10 G &#8211; 18 IP &#8211; 3.00 ERA &#8211; 1.39 WHIP &#8211; 11.5 K/9 &#8211; 5 BB/9</p>
<p>If you don’t count the fact that he was technically a minor league free agent last winter, Antolin is the longest serving player in the Jays minor league system (and only Brett Cecil outranks him on the major league squad), having been selected in the 11th round in 2008. The 26 year old Hawaiian has moved through the system with excruciating slowness. That was largely due to elevated walk rates which he seemed to have conquered in the two most recent previous seasons. He needs to get back to that if he wants to work his way into a crowded shuttle reliever contingent.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=546990#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL">Anthony Alford</a> &#8211; CF &#8211; Dunedin</p>
<p>7 G &#8211; 27 PA &#8211; .111/.200/.111 &#8211; 0 HR &#8211; 1/1 SB &#8211; 3 BB &#8211; 16 K<br />
Alford has only been back a week from a leg injury suffered on Opening Day on a play at the plate. So far he hasn’t gotten on track at all, and of course we can’t know if he’s still playing in some discomfort. Obviously we can’t read anything significant into the first week back after a month long layoff.</p>
<h3>Other Stat Lines of Interest</h3>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Hitter</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>PA</th>
<th>AVG</th>
<th>OBP</th>
<th>SLG</th>
<th>HR</th>
<th>SB</th>
<th>BB</th>
<th>K</th>
<th>Misc.</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Rowdy Tellez</td>
<td> 21</td>
<td> 1B</td>
<td> AA</td>
<td>28</td>
<td> 117</td>
<td> .168</td>
<td> .314</td>
<td> .337</td>
<td> 4</td>
<td>0</td>
<td> 22</td>
<td> 25</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Roemon Fields</td>
<td> 25</td>
<td> CF</td>
<td> AA</td>
<td> 28</td>
<td> 128</td>
<td> .263</td>
<td> .320</td>
<td> .314</td>
<td>0</td>
<td> 11</td>
<td> 10</td>
<td> 21</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Richard Urena</td>
<td> 20</td>
<td> SS</td>
<td> A</td>
<td> 26</td>
<td> 114</td>
<td> .296</td>
<td> .345</td>
<td> .344</td>
<td> 3</td>
<td> 3</td>
<td> 6</td>
<td> 13</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> D.J. Davis</td>
<td> 21</td>
<td> OF</td>
<td> A</td>
<td> 25</td>
<td> 104</td>
<td> .200</td>
<td> .276</td>
<td> .295</td>
<td> 1</td>
<td> 7</td>
<td> 9</td>
<td> 34</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Jesus Montero</td>
<td> 26</td>
<td> 1B</td>
<td> AAA</td>
<td>31</td>
<td> 131</td>
<td> .297</td>
<td> .333</td>
<td> .407</td>
<td> 2</td>
<td> 0</td>
<td> 5</td>
<td> 25</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Pitcher</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>IP</th>
<th>ERA</th>
<th>K/9</th>
<th>BB/9</th>
<th>Misc.</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Shane Dawson</td>
<td> 22</td>
<td> SP</td>
<td> AA</td>
<td> 4</td>
<td>20</td>
<td> 2.70</td>
<td> 7.7</td>
<td> 4.5</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Danny Barnes</td>
<td> 26</td>
<td> RP</td>
<td> AA</td>
<td> 10</td>
<td>15.1</td>
<td> 1.17</td>
<td> 10.6</td>
<td> 1.2</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Conner Greene</td>
<td> 21</td>
<td> SP</td>
<td> A</td>
<td> 7</td>
<td> 37.1</td>
<td> 3.13</td>
<td> 4.6</td>
<td> 4.1</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Adonys Cardona</td>
<td> 22</td>
<td> RP</td>
<td> A</td>
<td> 10</td>
<td> 11</td>
<td> 0.00</td>
<td> 4.1</td>
<td> 6.5</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Jon Harris</td>
<td> 22</td>
<td> SP</td>
<td> a</td>
<td> 4</td>
<td> 13.2</td>
<td> 1.98</td>
<td> 6.6</td>
<td> 5.3</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Moving Pillar Down is Good, But Doesn&#8217;t Help as Much as You&#8217;d Think</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/17/moving-pillar-down-is-good-but-doesnt-help-as-much-as-youd-think/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/17/moving-pillar-down-is-good-but-doesnt-help-as-much-as-youd-think/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Apr 2016 21:35:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1577</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Twelve short games in to the Blue Jays season, and the Kevin Pillar leadoff experiment is over. As we say during today&#8217;s game, and as we learned via Richard Griffin this morning, the Jays have moved Michael Saunders in at the top of the lineup, and have pushed Pillar down to No. 8. Big move in #bluejays lineup [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Twelve short games in to the Blue Jays season, and the Kevin Pillar leadoff experiment is over. As we say during today&#8217;s game, and as we learned via <a href="https://twitter.com/RGriffinStar/status/721698646136197120" target="_blank">Richard Griffin</a> this morning, the Jays have moved Michael Saunders in at the top of the lineup, and have pushed Pillar down to No. 8.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Big move in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bluejays?src=hash">#bluejays</a> lineup this morning. Saunders hitting leadoff and Pillar batting 8th ahead of Goins.</p>
<p>&mdash; Richard Griffin (@RGriffinStar) <a href="https://twitter.com/RGriffinStar/status/721698646136197120">April 17, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Hooray? Probably.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s been an interesting dichotomy of thinking when it has come to the leadoff spot this season. When it was announced in Spring Training that Kevin Pillar would be tried at the position, the general consensus was that it probably wasn&#8217;t a good idea. However, after he <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/22/why-i-love-to-hate-kevin-pillar/" target="_blank">beat the odds in 2015</a>, and <a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/kevin-pillar-has-made-another-adjustment-to-his-swing/" target="_blank">spent part of the offseason working with Bobby Tewksbary</a>, there was some reason for optimism. Not a lot, mind you, but enough that we hadn&#8217;t complained Pillar out of the top of the lineup prior to the beginning of the season.</p>
<p>There was some reasoning for that, and it was partially logistical and partially statistical. Logistically, the Blue Jays current 25-man roster does not include a perfect lead off option. As the numbers would have it, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin would be the key options, but neither&#8217;s skill set and mindset perfectly fit the role. Then, statistically, while there is a positive difference between the projected runs per game with Michael Saunders vs. Kevin Pillar at the top of the lineup, that difference is marginal. Using <a href="http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?Player0=Michael+Saunders&amp;OBA0=+0.320&amp;Slug0=+0.403&amp;Player1=Josh+Donaldson&amp;OBA1=+0.352&amp;Slug1=+0.498&amp;Player2=Jose+Bautista&amp;OBA2=+0.380&amp;Slug2=+0.512&amp;Player3=Edwin+Encarnacion&amp;OBA3=+0.353&amp;Slug3=+0.505&amp;Player4=Troy+Tulowitzki&amp;OBA4=+0.347&amp;Slug4=+0.473&amp;Player5=Russell+Martin&amp;OBA5=+0.327&amp;Slug5=+0.400&amp;Player6=Chris+Colabello&amp;OBA6=+0.319&amp;Slug6=+0.448&amp;Player7=Kevin+Pillar&amp;OBA7=+0.304&amp;Slug7=+0.409&amp;Player8=Ryan+Goins&amp;OBA8=+0.282&amp;Slug8=+0.340&amp;Model=1" target="_blank">Baseball Musing&#8217;s lineup analysis tool</a> and PECOTA projections, we can roughly calculate the difference.</p>
<p>With Michael Saunders at leadoff, the Blue Jays lineup is projected to score 5.019 runs per game.</p>
<p>With Kevin Pillar at leadoff, the Blue Jays lineup is projected to score 4.999 runs per game.</p>
<p>Over 162 games, that difference amounts to 3.24 extra runs.</p>
<p>Can those 3.24 runs make a difference? Yes, not a huge one, but baseball games are won on the margins, and this is where context comes in to the equation. Traditionally, that probably wouldn&#8217;t lead to many extra wins, but this calculation ignores some of the importance of leverage, and can <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/are-league-wide-batting-orders-more-optimized/" target="_blank">understate the effect that a lineup change can actually have</a>. Even over these first few weeks, Kevin Pillar has had 15 plate appearances between the 7th and 9th innings (generally high leverage innings), and has gotten on base just once. That problem holds true throughout the rest of the game, as well. In 2016, Josh Donaldson has come up with a man on base just 33.3% of the time. If that sounds low to you, it should. In 2015, No. 2 hitters came up with men on base 41.2% of the time. Ergo, 33.3% is quite bad. Had Saunders been atop the lineup, he probably would have done a little better. More importantly, the team would have put themselves in the best position to succeed.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s ultimately what any lineup decision comes down to: does it better set up a team for success? If the answer is yes, barring egos and personal preferences, a team should probably make the change. In this case, even if Michael Saunders falters, there will be nothing to complain about because John Gibbons will have done everything he could have.</p>
<p>Fortunately, this could shortly become a very moot point as the Blue Jays two truer leadoff options look like they could soon make their way back to Toronto. Just this morning, it was announced that <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-devon-travis-take-bp-field-monday/" target="_blank">Devon Travis will take on-field batting practice for the first time on Monday</a>. Also, Dalton Pompey, who has a career 11.4 BB% in the minors, has made it way back to the field, and<a href="https://twitter.com/amymoritz/status/721760298965868544" target="_blank"> had hits in all six of his games</a>.</p>
<p>Regardless of who is leading off, the sooner that the Jays can get to the run scoring heights that they reached in 2015, the better.</p>
<p>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>The Comprehensive Blue Jays Minor League Primer</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/07/the-comprehensive-blue-jays-minor-league-primer/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/07/the-comprehensive-blue-jays-minor-league-primer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Apr 2016 17:19:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conner Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Reid-Foley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1154</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today is the big day for fans of the Toronto Blue Jays prospects. Today, weather permitting &#8211; given that three of the four full season teams play in northern climates &#8211; is opening day for all four full season affiliates. Since full (tentative) rosters were announced at the first of the week, you have probably perused [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today is the big day for fans of the Toronto Blue Jays prospects. Today, weather permitting &#8211; given that three of the four full season teams play in northern climates &#8211; is opening day for all four full season affiliates. Since full (tentative) rosters were announced at the first of the week, you have probably perused them by now if you’re really interested in knowing all the finer details. So I won’t bother to repeat those for you here. Instead I will provide appropriate links to the full roster for each team to browse at your heart&#8217;s content. This review will focus on the prospects and players that should be commanding your attention for various reasons as the season gets underway, starting at the top of the system and working our way down the ladder.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t422">BUFFALO BISONS</a></h3>
<p>The Buffalo team is packed out with players with major league experience, and relatively light on legitimate prospects, so I&#8217;ll have to fudge a bit on this one. That’s not really unusual for the Jays or across the league. Major league teams like to have veteran depth they can summon if an injury creates a need on the big club. It’s not my purpose here to review those guys, however I will toss a shout-out to Drew Hutchison who had fewer than 32 IP above Hi-A ball when he was first promoted to Toronto at the age of 21. An argument could be made that on a stricter development plan, he’d have been a major league rookie at best last year. He’s still just 25.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Dalton Pompey </strong>of course<strong>.</strong> No longer in possession of rookie eligibility, he’s still legitimately a prospect even if he doesn’t appear on the lists. He only really needs to consolidate his hitting progress. His bat is probably major league ready. But the team believes the CF needs more consistency, that is more reps, on the defensive side of the ball. The 23 year old is another player that on another course might just now be arriving at AAA, and would probably be in the major leagues if not for last year&#8217;s breakout from Kevin Pillar.</p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Andy Burns</strong>, 3B, 2B, LF, sometimes SS, and more in a pinch, has slowly and steadily built his credibility in the Blue Jays system, culminating in his head-turning spring training performance. He was drafted as a SS and put up interesting slash lines in his first full professional season in 2012, and was even better in 2013. The offensive numbers cooled a bit in the last couple of years but his versatility has steadily increased. That factor alone may put him in a major league uniform sometime this season.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep on…</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Jesus Montero</strong>. So okay, he’s not a prospect at all, but he’s only 26 and if the Jays can fix his swing to complement the power. . .</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Darrell Ceciliani</strong> is another guy you don’t really think of as one of the Blue Jays prospects, as he has never been a top 10 prospect in the Mets organization (the team from whom he was acquired). He was quite good in the Florida State League a few years ago, then raked in the high-octane Pacific Coast League last year before impressing Jays decision-makers in Spring Training with his power. Keep an eye on how he handles International League pitching, as he very likely will see time in Toronto this season.</p>
<h4><em><strong>There’s No Such Thing as A (Relief) Pitching Prospect</strong></em></h4>
<p>To be abbreviated henceforth!</p>
<p><strong>Chad Girodo</strong> is a 25 year old lefty that stuck around a long time in Spring Training. While the Blue Jays’ relief depth is pretty impressive, this is a guy you may well see do some work for the team, if not this year then next. With rare exception, minor league relief pitchers hardly qualify as “prospects” but sometimes a guy comes through the system in the ‘pen and still makes an impact (Aaron Loup, for an example). A side-armer who dominates left-handed hitters, Girodo had a 0.62 ERA in AA New Hampshire last year with an 11/1 K/BB ratio. That’ll play.</p>
<p>Other notes &#8211; RH RP Blake McFarland is another guy that might sneak up on you this year. You don’t add a somewhat older, former undrafted free agent to the 40 man roster unless you think he can pitch in the bigs in a pinch.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t463">NEW HAMPSHIRE FISHER CATS</a></h3>
<p>Often double-A is viewed by major league teams as the real prospect proving ground and the best of them might leap-frog over the veteran-laden triple-a. Still, even when the Blue Jays are well stocked with prospects it always seems like the F-Cats have a rather plain roster. There&#8217;s only one real star here to start the season but look for that to change as the summer heats up.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Rowdy Tellez</strong>, the 21 year old first baseman with the nickname that demands your adoration, was raking in Dunedin last year when he was hit in the hand by a pitch that cost him the rest of his team’s season. He did come back strong in the Arizona Fall League, but given that he only played in 35 games in Dunedin, it’s a mild surprise he was assigned to New Hampshire right out of the gate. He has an advanced feel for hitting, both for average and for power, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the higher quality arms in double-A.</p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p>LHP <strong>Shane Dawson</strong> is an even more surprising assignment at this level. The Alberta-born starter is widely regarded as having marginal stuff but is also described as a player who maximizes his results with an advanced feel for pitchability. The surprise here is that the 22 year old pitcher got a mere 5 starts in Dunedin after a second-half promotion in 2015. I&#8217;m guessing not one observer had penciled him in for AA.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep On…</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Roman Fields</strong>. He’s always likely to be a guy with, at most, a barely tolerable bat but he also features impressive outfield defense and blazing speed. If the team can turn his bat up even a little, he could be a valuable bench outfielder. Remember, the upcoming season will only be his third in professional baseball.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>John Stilson</strong>? You remember, right? The guy that everyone said the Blue Jays stole in the 2011 draft if he could stay healthy and then he . . . didn’t? Yeah. That guy. Well, that’s not entirely fair. He looked like an absolute stud out of the ‘pen in 2013 for the Bisons. But a series of shoulder woes cut short 2014 and wiped out 2015. Reports were he was throwing 98 mph easily in spring training, so his name could pop up again.</p>
<h4><em><strong>TNSTAS(R)PP</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Brady Dragmire</strong> had one of the craziest game logs of 2015. He struggled so much in the early going that his ERA peaked at 10.80 and a 10/13 K/BB ratio on June 9 (in 21.2 IP). But after making an adjustment, he got so hot that he burst into flames (not literally). His ERA over the balance of the season was 2.38 over 41.2 IP, with a 40/7 K/BB. The 22-year old also didn&#8217;t give up a home run all year. His addition to the 40 man roster last fall showed that the Blue Jays were paying attention. He will basically go as far as his slider takes him. When it&#8217;s on, he&#8217;s very tough. When it&#8217;s not, he&#8217;s very hittable.</p>
<p>Other notes &#8211; The increasing crowd of players who play 1B/DH in the system, combined with the injuries and lack of development from once highly regarded Mitch Nay have created the opportunity for <strong>Matt Dean</strong> to return to the hot corner. He displayed considerable power for the cavernous environment of the Florida State League last year but it remains to be seen whether his bat translates to AA or his glove can still play at third base.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t424">DUNEDIN BLUE JAYS</a></h3>
<p>In stark contrast the the New Hampshire squad, the D-Jays are comparatively jacked up. a half dozen or more of these guys have significant major league potential. Much of this likely has to do with the virtual guarantee of early season warm weather, but regardless, the team is loaded.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Anthony Alford</strong> is the only real choice for the mention here. He came into 2015 with fewer than 80 professional at bats and promptly turned into an absolute stud. He started at Lansing for 50 games, then put up an even better line in 52 games after his promotion to Dunedin. He has an elite approach at the plate, which is stunning for someone who missed so much professional time, and has the defensive and speed tools that make scouts drool. While there’s certainly wisdom in holding a guy who grew up in Mississippi back in the Florida sunshine for a bit more seasoning, I’d be stunned if he played here beyond the FSL All Star Game on June 18. If you missed it, you can get an up-close look at the star prospect from Joshua Howsam&#8217;s <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/06/why-anthony-alford-is-ready-to-take-the-next-step/">excellent interview with Alford. </a></p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p>Well, technically, five! There is just too much talent on this team to limit the report to just one player.</p>
<p>Being on the same roster as Alford gets shortstop <strong>Richard Urena</strong> pushed out of the spotlight a bit, but he’s here too and he’s not short on buzz around the organization. Still just 20, scouts rave about the Dominican infielder&#8217;s instincts for shortstop, and he showed surprising power last year in Lansing. Executives and coaches are very impressed with him and are content to give him lots of time to develop his plate discipline, which is practically non-existent at this point. He walked only 16 times in 2015, so he&#8217;ll need to improve to be more than just a defensive wizard.</p>
<p>The D-Jays rotation has a ton of potential that I would be remiss start with anyone other than <strong>Conner Greene</strong>. You’ve probably heard a lot about him this spring already, but it bears repeating. Like Alford, Greene took a huge leap forward last year. The former seventh round pick threw well in Lansing, dominated in Dunedin for seven starts and eventually made it all the way to New Hampshire. Armed with a fastball that was touching 98 mph this spring and an improving curve, Greene is somebody that could come rather quickly. However, also like Alford, the new regime choose to slow him down a bit and let him pitch in the Florida sun after a wild 2015. He’s another one that should be in NH before July arrives.</p>
<p>The rest of the rotation brings more risk but a lot of upside. The most intriguing player for me is one-time bonus baby <strong>Adonys Cardona</strong>. The injury plagued Venezuelan, signed at 16, has just turned 22 and has only managed 83 mostly unimpressive professional innings (not counting the DSL), but the stuff is supposedly still elite. He is apparently bringing high nineties heat with his fastball and impressively sharp secondary pitches. If the newly revamped training staff (no doubt the reason he’s on the Dunedin roster rather than Lansing) can keep him on the mound, this could be the breakout candidate for the entire minor league system. [Last minute update: Cardona isn&#8217;t scheduled to start during the first turn through the rotation. The team may be using him in the bullpen initially, or even long term. This is a factor to pay attention to, putting him in relief may be something they feel is dictated by his inability to stay heathy. However, as a reliever he might move quickly]</p>
<p><strong>Tom Robson</strong> is here too. In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery the watchful eye of the Dunedin trainers will be handy with him as well. While his numbers don’t reflect it, some around the team expect a lot from Robson this year. The same can be said for <strong>Ryan Burucki</strong>. Drafted in 2012, he’s mentioned among the high ceiling guys every year and every year he manages to get hurt. The lefty has fewer than 70 professional inning, but 57 of those were in 2014 and they were quite impressive. Like the two aforementioned, he’s likely in Dunedin specifically because the organization wants to employ the best possible resources to keep him healthy.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep On&#8230;</strong></em></h4>
<p>Catcher <strong>Danny Jansen</strong>. It would be easy overlook the Illinois native if all you did was look at the stats from last season, one interrupted by a major injury. But many observers believe he has put himself into the conversation for the organization&#8217;s best catching prospect (given the even more severe injury issues of a certain former first round choice). I’m not ready to go that far yet, but he’s much better than last year’s results.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>DJ Davis</strong> is here too! I don’t suppose you’ve completely forgotten the less successful of the team’s two Mississippi outfielders, but anyone can be forgiven for not seeing him past the white-hot intensity of Alford’s success. Davis showed dramatic improvement last year, but he’ll need to do just that again to convince the many skeptics that he has any hope of a major league future.</p>
<h4><strong><em>TNSTAA(R)PP</em></strong></h4>
<p>This is particularly true in Dunedin to start the year. So in the absence of a guy I can tell you has upside (I guess <strong>Justin Schafer</strong> might be . . . something . . . maybe) I’ll give you an interesting storyline. Remember <strong>Gustavo Pierre</strong>, the hacking Dominican bonus baby SS-turned-3B who struggled with both the bat and the glove? Well the Blue Jays are giving him a shot on the mound. If they assigned him to a full season roster, particularly Dunedin, he must have shown them something.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t499">LANSING LUGNUTS</a></h3>
<p>Not much to get excited about here in the field, save one guy, but there&#8217;s the potential for a big-time starting rotation.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Sean Reid-Foley</strong>, who’s also 20, was one of the most aggressively promoted prospects under the previous regime. After a taste of Gulf Coast League ball in 2014 following his second round selection out of high school, he surprisingly broke camp last year at low-A Lansing. Armed with a mid 90s fastball and a wicked slider, Reid-Foley actually pitched well enough, despite evident control issues, to eventually receive eight starts in Dunedin. Neither assignment would have have been a shock this year, but it seems the team is daring Reid-Foley to dominate in low-A and harness his commend before getting any promotion. Chances are if he holds up his end of that proposition, Reid-Foley will move quickly.</p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p>The other potential star turn would 2015 First Round pick <strong>Jon Harris</strong>. The 6’4” RHP was thought to be quite the steal when the team drafted him and some observers said he’d be able to move as fast as anyone in the draft due to a very mature approach. But fatigue largely ruined his debut so he’s looking for a rebound for the full-season Lugnuts.  He works with a sinking fastball between 92-94 and has a true four pitch mix, with curveball, slider and changeup all flashing plus at times. The fast-mover tag hasn’t faded too far into the rear-view and if he shows any consistency, he’ll challenge Reid-Foley for the honor of first promotion.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep On…</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Lane Thomas </strong>is a third baseman-turned center fielder-turned second baseman who now listed again as a center fielder, but my sources tell me not to assume the 2B plan is dead. Thomas announced his presence with authority in 2014, putting up an .814 OPS as an 18 year old at Bluefield. However, he struggled all year at Vancouver last year and I, among others, were troubled to see such a promising player falter to that degree. I kept my eye out for reports on what was going wrong and it turns out he was dealing with a pretty serious wrist injury all year which obviously greatly affected his hitting. My source says he is healed and strong now and this may be the hitter that gets the most “where did this guy come from?” chatter in the coming year.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p>Pop quiz! Who was the 1st round (35th overall) pick by the Blue Jays in 2011? If you said <strong>Jacob Anderson</strong> then possibly you, like me, spend far too much time paying attention to minor leaguers. Anderson was described by some as a nice bargain at the pick. After he hit .405 in a handful of GCL at bats that year I was perhaps overly invested in him for a while. Then he struggled in 2012, missed all of ‘13 and effectively all (10 AB) of 2014. He managed to get 63 AB last year as a 22 year old at Bluefield before a pitch to the head put him out of commission again. I had basically moved on from him, but here he is, on a full season team, trying to hold himself together long enough to rediscover the talent he had on Draft Day.</p>
<h4><em><strong>TNSTAA(R)PP</strong></em></h4>
<p>Noting truly remarkable here, but <strong>Travis Bergen </strong>was the team’s 7th round pick in 2015 out of Kennesaw State and he might be a fast mover.</p>
<p>Other notes &#8211; Another SP that you must pay attention to on this team is 6’6” Dominican lefty <strong>Angel Perdomo</strong>. Word is that when he’s on he’s a monster on the mound, but just lacks some consistency, particularly with control. He could combine with Harris and Reid-Foley to deliver this team it’s seemingly annual first-half title.</p>
<h4><em><strong>“But what about…?”</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Max Pentecost</strong>? Pentecost is technically on the Lansing roster but disabled. No one seems to know anything about the former first rounder and &#8220;Catcher of the Future&#8221;. He’s probably still physically in Dunedin working with the training staff to get game ready and the Lansing assignment is a paperwork matter. [Last minute update: Pentecost has disappeared from the Lansing roster. Presumably he does remain in extended]</p>
<p><strong>Clinton Hollon</strong>? Hollon is finishing up his amphetamine suspension that carried over from late last season. He is due back in early May and stands to give the Lugnuts a four man quartet in the rotation that would be unrivaled in the system. As for the suspension, see the <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/18/after-set-backs-in-2015-clinton-hollon-is-ready-to-take-flight/">great piece</a> on this site by Gideon Turk for the inside scoop.</p>
<p><strong>Mitch Nay</strong>? Nay opens the season on the Dunedin DL. He left the field last summer because of a staph infection which apparently took a pretty big toll on him. No word on the nature of his disability this spring, or whether or not it’s related.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Smoral</strong>? I continue to hold out hope for the big lefty since he spent the winter working with <a href="https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/" target="_blank">Driveline Baseball</a>. He will likely remain in Extended Spring Training with a potential assignment yet to be determined. He may yet end up with Dunedin or Lansing before the short-season teams begin play.</p>
<p><strong>Ryan McBroom</strong>? He’s in Dunedin, playing 1B, wishing he didn’t have Tellez soaking up all the press in front of him on the depth chart.</p>
<p>If there’s any other player you saw mentioned on a Top Prospect list anywhere I didn’t mention, the odds are very high indeed that said player is young enough that he’ll be playing on a short-season team. Yes, that includes <strong>Vlad Guerrero, Jr.</strong> &#8211; which probably puts a damper on his <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/guerrero-jr-hopes-to-be-in-majors-in-two-years/" target="_blank">plans to get to the bigs in two years</a>. Kudos go to my friend, the ever-gracious <a href="https://twitter.com/jgoldstrass">Jesse Goldberg-Strassler</a> for valuable insight on some of these guys.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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