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	<title>Toronto &#187; Bullpen</title>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 66: Teaching Hitting is Tough</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/artificial-turf-wars-ep-66-teaching-hitting-is-tough/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/artificial-turf-wars-ep-66-teaching-hitting-is-tough/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Jul 2017 09:52:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitting Coach]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12488</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 66 Former Blue Jays Assistant Hitting Coach Eric Owens stops by to discuss working with major and minor league hitters, the issues plaguing the recent Blue Jays clubs, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s swing techniques, and why many clubs now have two hitting coaches. Greg and Josh then discuss the returning members of the Blue Jays bullpen, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 66</strong></p>
<p>Former Blue Jays Assistant Hitting Coach Eric Owens stops by to discuss working with major and minor league hitters, the issues plaguing the recent Blue Jays clubs, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s swing techniques, and why many clubs now have two hitting coaches. Greg and Josh then discuss the returning members of the Blue Jays bullpen, the continues excellence of Marcus Stroman and Roberto Osuna, the struggles of Marco Estrada and the defence, and Dalton Pompey&#8217;s sad tale. They also answer listener questions and discuss the trades from around the league and their impact on the Blue Jays.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/014/show_10149775_2017_07_19_04_47_27.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/014/show_10149775_2017_07_19_04_47_27.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 44: A Canadian Classic</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/17/atw-episode-44-canadian-training/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/17/atw-episode-44-canadian-training/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Feb 2017 11:00:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Baseball Classic]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9053</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Greg Hamilton, coach and director of national teams for Baseball Canada, stops by to discuss Canada&#8217;s World Baseball Classic team. He details the selection process for the roster, the need for a blend of youth and experience, and how the team reacted to the absence of so many top players. Greg and Josh also break [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greg Hamilton, coach and director of national teams for Baseball Canada, stops by to discuss Canada&#8217;s World Baseball Classic team. He details the selection process for the roster, the need for a blend of youth and experience, and how the team reacted to the absence of so many top players. Greg and Josh also break down the last couple weeks of Blue Jays news with a look at the Joe Smith and Mat Latos signings, Aaron Sanchez&#8217; being let loose, and the loss of the latest &#8220;Catcher of the Future.&#8221; Finally, they answer listener questions and give a Do-Over to their good buddy, Rob Manfred.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/826/show_9826433_2017_02_17_05_11_20.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/826/show_9826433_2017_02_17_05_11_20.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a><br />
&nbsp;<br />
Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>THE STUFFIES! Part Two: Top Team Stuff and the Not-so-Stuffies</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/14/the-stuffies-part-two-top-team-stuff-and-the-not-so-stuffies/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/14/the-stuffies-part-two-top-team-stuff-and-the-not-so-stuffies/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Oct 2016 16:33:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Rotation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7453</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Welcome back to the Stuffies! Now that we&#8217;ve covered the Rookies of the Year, let&#8217;s take a look at what teams brought the best Stuff on the season. Best Starting Rotation Chicago Cubs In third place, we saw the Chicago Cubs &#8211; a team with an overpowering starting rotation that destroyed their competition. They were [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome back to the Stuffies! Now that we&#8217;ve covered the Rookies of the Year, let&#8217;s take a look at what teams brought the best Stuff on the season.</p>
<h2><b>Best Starting Rotation</b></h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/starting-rotation-stuffies-.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-7454" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/starting-rotation-stuffies--1024x666.png" alt="starting rotation stuffies" width="832" height="541" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Chicago Cubs</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In third place, we saw the Chicago Cubs &#8211; a team with an overpowering starting rotation that destroyed their competition. They were lead by the league leader in Stuff &#8211; Jake Arrieta. Jason Hammel also utilized a huge separation of 22” between his pitches, and 17% change in speed to help propel the Cubs into the Stuffy finals. </span></p>
<p><strong>Los Angeles Dodgers</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Had the Dodgers managed to stay healthy in 2016, there is a very good chance they would have taken home the Stuffy title. Kershaw, and Maeda have Stuff that is in the 96%+ range &#8211; something that is truly elite. This was bolstered by a lot of above average Stuff starters (Urias, Anderson, McCarthy, and Kazmir), who just couldn’t put together enough innings to catch up to first place.</span></p>
<p><strong>Kansas City Royals</strong></p>
<p>And, in an extremely tight battle, it’s the Kansas City Royals who emerge as the 2016 Stuff Champions! Who needs to follow up a World Series win with another title run, when you have the honour of hoisting the very first Team Rotation Stuffy award, right?? The Royals were lead by the four horsemen of the AStuffcolypse &#8211; Ventura, Volquez, Kennedy, and Danny Duffy. These Stuff monsters all had Stuff values of greater than 1.0 &#8211; or better than 80% of all MLB pitchers. A worthy achievement, for sure. Congrats to the Royals on their Stuff title. The prospect of having to watch the Royals dominate again based on their starting pitching truly is vomit-inducing.</p>
<h2><b>Best Bullpen</b></h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/bullpen-stuffies-.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-7455" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/bullpen-stuffies--1024x683.png" alt="bullpen stuffies" width="834" height="556" /></a><br />
<span style="font-weight: 400">The top 3 teams for Bullpen Stuff really distanced themselves from the pack in 2016.</span></p>
<p><strong>Cincinatti Reds</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The third best Stuff belongs to a team that didn’t have a lot go well for them this season. The Cincinnati Reds wind up with a Bronze Stuffy, led by the power arm of Michael Lorenzen. Lorenzen had an elite fastball at 96mph, and paired that with a 90+ mph breaking ball. </span></p>
<p><strong>Minnesota Twins</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Another team that will take solace in a Stuffy medal is the Minnesota Twins. The Twins take home the silver Stuffy for bullpens &#8211; with huge Stuff performances by Ryan Pressly, Trevor May, and Taylor Rogers leading the way. All of these power arms featured strong pitch mixes, and elite Stuff. I guess this just goes to show you &#8211; success is more about location, than it is about lighting up the radar gun!</span></p>
<p><b>Texas Rangers</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That brings us to our 2016 Bullpen Stuff champions &#8211; the Texas Rangers! When the Rangers aren’t pumping fastballs into the lower backs of hitters who hurt their poor little feelings, they’re usually locking down one run games on the backs of Matt Bush, Cesar Ramos, and Sam Dyson &#8211; all pitchers who had stuff better than 97% of all pitchers in the MLB. When looking at every relief pitcher on the Rangers, and turning off any sort of innings cut-off, their reliever with the 8th best numbers (Keone Kela) has Stuff at 1.02 &#8211; that’s still better than 81% of all other relievers. They are without a doubt, the undisputed Stuff champions of Major League Baseball Bullpens.</span></p>
<h2><b>Not So Stuffies</b></h2>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With our strict selection criteria for the Stuffies, there were a total of 77 eligible starting pitchers included in the analysis. We didn’t include knuckleballers, or relief pitchers (too many guys that only throw one pitch &#8211; thus hurting them in the Stuff metric).</span></p>
<p><strong>Bartolo Colon</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">DYK: Bartolo takes 50 BP swings a day. His first home run wasn&#8217;t entirely an accident: <a href="https://t.co/yzfOND2FYH">https://t.co/yzfOND2FYH</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mets?src=hash">#Mets</a> <a href="https://t.co/OGhk7IKSi3">pic.twitter.com/OGhk7IKSi3</a></p>
<p>— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) <a href="https://twitter.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/729355873080872960">May 8, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It’s hard to argue with the results Bartolo Colon put up this year. 2016’s most memorable home run, and some hot nasty fastball action out of the bullpen and rotation. Bartolo looks like the type of guy that you’d make on the create-a-player in the show, when you’re trying to make your friends laugh at your create a team. I don’t want to be on big sexy’s bad side &#8211; Bartolo might not get love from the Stuff Metric, but let it be known I think he’s the man.</span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>This GIF gets me PUMPED UP. Get&#8217;m, <a href="https://twitter.com/CC_Sabathia">@CC_Sabathia</a>. Let&#8217;s see this every start. <a href="https://twitter.com/Yankees">@Yankees</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash">#Yankees</a> <a href="http://t.co/oCtaNCLaWK">pic.twitter.com/oCtaNCLaWK</a></p>
<p>— Mushin (@MetalMushin) <a href="https://twitter.com/MetalMushin/status/629675840482062336">August 7, 2015</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>CC Sabathia</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">CC Sabathia once ruled the roost (and, he still can generate some nasty stuff now and then). He pushed for Cy Youngs, put in 220+ inning seasons, and was the most highly sought after prize in all of free agency. However, his Stuff has fallen off completely, dropping to a very low level in 2016 &#8211; That is not an encouraging trend. Now in 2016, he sits near the bottom of the Stuff list.</span></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GottaSeeIt?src=hash">#GottaSeeIt</a>: Jose Bautista hits his second home run of spring training, a three-run rocket off Doug Fister. <a href="https://t.co/YMYhY2ELtu">https://t.co/YMYhY2ELtu</a></p>
<p>— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) <a href="https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/710891248152928256">March 18, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><strong>Doug Fister</strong></p>
<p>Doug &#8220;Twisted&#8221; Fister &#8211; Doug Fister owns the honour of being the only starter on the Non-Stuffies list that weighs under 300 lbs. Is there a direct correlation between body mass and pitching effectiveness? David Wells sure doesn’t think so. Doug Fister now has a unique title &#8211; the least amount of Stuff in the MLB.</p>
<p>The appetizers are done! Next time, we finish things off with the big awards. The best Stuff of the year.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The 9 Biggest Bullpen Blowups in Jays History</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/24/the-9-biggest-bullpen-blowups-in-jays-history/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/24/the-9-biggest-bullpen-blowups-in-jays-history/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthopoulos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ross atkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergio Santos]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5761</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 trade deadline didn&#8217;t come close to matching the euphoric highs of the 2015 deadline. You can&#8217;t trump David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. Nobody was asking first-year GM Ross Atkins to shock the world, and most Jays fans were impressed with the shrewd, but impactful acquisitions he did make. And the depth provided by Melvin Upton [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 trade deadline didn&#8217;t come close to matching the euphoric highs of the 2015 deadline. You can&#8217;t trump David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. Nobody was asking first-year GM Ross Atkins to shock the world, and most Jays fans were impressed with the shrewd, but impactful acquisitions he did make. And the depth provided by Melvin Upton Jr. and Francisco Liriano has already proved invaluable with all the outfield injuries and Sanchez&#8217; mini-vacation to Florida.</p>
<p>But if you&#8217;ve been following this team since the Ricciardi days, then perhaps the decisions to ship Jesse Chavez and Drew Storen off in exchange for <em>other relievers</em> was more stunning than last year&#8217;s fireworks. Toronto had never shelled out millions on a rental ace at the deadline, but it&#8217;s also not the Blue Jay way to throw out their bullpen garbage and roll the dice with fresh arms.</p>
<p>The last time I can remember something like this happening was when Anthopoulos traded away the struggling Francisco Cordero (along with Ben Francisco and a minor league package highlighted by our dear friend Joe Musgrove) to Houston in exchange for J.A. Happ and two relievers.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not like Scott Feldman was a clear upgrade over Chavez (as we <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/02/new-blue-jay-feldman-tagged-for-loss-against-former-team">found out</a> the very same day), but it&#8217;s at least a shake-up, a change of scenery, a middle finger to inertia. Standing pat with a struggling bullpen <em>can</em> be perceived as a show of confidence in your guys, but when you stand pat year after year it starts to reek of complacency.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying that Atkins revolutionized the bullpen. Being in a position to land Andrew Miller would&#8217;ve been nice, or Jeremy Jeffress. But Toronto&#8217;s relievers have accumulated the 1.5 WARP as a group since the break, trailing only the Yankees and Rangers by that metric. The Cleveland series may have taken some winds out of some sails, but while this bullpen is more or less the same as it was talent-wise, it <em>feels</em> different somehow &#8211; more energized, dependable.</p>
<p>So in honour of Atkins&#8217; refusal to go gently into that good night, I&#8217;ve decided to open up the vault and look back at some of the team&#8217;s worst bullpen moments over the past unkind decade. You&#8217;re probably already cycling through some names in your head: Jon Rauch, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco. Maybe you&#8217;ve got a better memory: Tomo Ohka, Brian Tallet, Jesse Litsch. I&#8217;m really sorry if I made you think even for a second today about <a href="http://torontolife.com/city/toronto-sports/blue-jays-jo-jo-reyes-almost-sets-a-new-record-for-futility/">Jo-Jo Reyes</a>.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve already rambled too long, so I&#8217;ll keep the methodology explanation simple. I used the Baseball Reference Play Index to search for all the appearances under 1.0 IP by a Toronto reliever since 1977 and sorted the list by <a href="//www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2014-09-05&amp;team=Red Sox&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2014&quot;&gt;FanGraphs&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;">Wins Probability Added (WPA)</a>. WPA has nothing to do with how good a pitcher is, it&#8217;s entirely based on context &#8211; this isn&#8217;t a ranking of the worst Blue Jays relievers. Here&#8217;s the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/game_finder.cgi?type=p#gotresults&amp;as=result_pitcher&amp;offset=0&amp;match=basic&amp;suffix=&amp;min_year_game=1977&amp;max_year_game=2016&amp;series=any&amp;series_game=any&amp;playoffs=&amp;WL=any&amp;game_length=any&amp;team_id=TOR&amp;team_lg=&amp;opp_id=&amp;opp_lg=&amp;use_dh=&amp;throws=any&amp;HV=any&amp;game_site=&amp;temperature_min=0&amp;temperature_max=120&amp;wind_speed_min=0&amp;wind_speed_max=90&amp;wind_direction_tolf=1&amp;wind_direction_tocf=1&amp;wind_direction_torf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromlf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromcf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromrf=1&amp;wind_direction_ltor=1&amp;wind_direction_rtol=1&amp;wind_direction_unknown=1&amp;precipitation_unknown=1&amp;precipitation_none=1&amp;precipitation_drizzle=1&amp;precipitation_showers=1&amp;precipitation_rain=1&amp;precipitation_snow=1&amp;sky_unknown=1&amp;sky_sunny=1&amp;sky_cloudy=1&amp;sky_overcast=1&amp;sky_night=1&amp;sky_dome=1&amp;Role=noGS&amp;DEC=any&amp;number_matched=1&amp;orderby=wpa_def&amp;order_by_asc=1&amp;c1criteria=IPouts&amp;c1gtlt=lt&amp;c1val=1&amp;c2criteria=&amp;c2gtlt=eq&amp;c2val=0&amp;c3criteria=&amp;c3gtlt=eq&amp;c3val=0&amp;c4criteria=&amp;c4gtlt=eq&amp;c4val=0&amp;c5criteria=&amp;c5gtlt=eq&amp;c5val=1.0&amp;c6criteria=&amp;location=pob&amp;locationMatch=is&amp;pob=&amp;pod=&amp;pcanada=&amp;pusa=&amp;firstgames=&amp;startgames=&amp;lastgames=&amp;firstteamgames=&amp;startteamgames=&amp;lastteamgames=&amp;ajax=1&amp;submitter=1&amp;z=1&amp;z=1">full list</a> if you&#8217;re interested.</p>
<h4><strong>9. -0.913 WPA: Casey Janssen (September 5, 2014)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2014-09-05&amp;team=Red Sox&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>After the Red Sox rallied for three runs in the bottom of the 8th against Aaron Loup to send the game to extras, Dioner Navarro singled in Marcus Stroman &#8211; who was pinch running for Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; and the Jays retook the lead with a two-run 10th. Boston had a 9.4% Win Expectancy when closer Casey Janssen entered the bottom of the 10th. Four straight singles and a sac-fly later and Boston&#8217;s Win Expectancy was up to 71% with men on first and second.</p>
<p>With the score knotted at 8-8, David Ortiz grounded sharply to second baseman Steve Tolleson, who had come on as a defensive replacement for Munenori Kawasaki. Instead of starting an inning-ending double play, Tolleson&#8217;s throw sailed past second base and set the stage for Yoenis Cespedes&#8217; walk-off single.</p>
<h4><strong>8. -0.917 WPA: Kevin Gregg (May 20, 2010)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2010-05-20&amp;team=Mariners&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Kevin Gregg somehow saved 37 games for Toronto during a 2010 season in which the starting five featured Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Rzepczynski. He was a pretty good pitcher by 2010 Jays standards, but it&#8217;s funny how a few terrible appearances colour our memory of a player.</p>
<p>The Mariners entered the bottom of the 9th down two runs with a Win Expectancy of 8%, and quickly got within a run on two singles and two walks. Gregg then recorded his only out of the inning on a sac-fly that tied things up before allowing a walk-off single to Ken Griffey Jr.</p>
<h4><strong>7. -0.923 WPA: Sergio Santos (May 2, 2014)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2014-05-02&amp;team=Pirates&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>What happened with Santos in 2014 reminds me a lot of Storen this year. Electric stuff, previous success&#8230; cringe-worthy trainwreck. After serving up a game-tying two-run jack to Pedro Alvarez which brought Pittsburgh Win Expectancy from 9% to 57%, Santos got a quick fly out before Starling Marte crushed a 2-1 offering for a walk-off win. It was Santos third blown save in a little over a month as the Jays closer.</p>
<h4><strong>6. -0.946 WPA: Mike Timlin (July 15, 1996)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1996-07-15&amp;team=Orioles&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The O&#8217;s needed four runs in the bottom of the 9th to win this one. They got five. Cal Ripken Jr. led things off by reaching on a fielding error, and two batters later Bobby Bonilla tied things up with a three-run shot. Timlin struck out the next batter, and Manager Cito Gaston left him in to close out the bottom of the lineup.</p>
<p>Didn&#8217;t quite work out that way. Pinch-hitter Luis Polonia bunted on the first pitch and narrowly beat out the throw, setting the stage for a walk-off homer by catcher Chris Hoiles.</p>
<h4><strong>5. -0.947 WPA: Darren Hall (June 4, 1995)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1995-06-04&amp;team=Indians&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The high-powered Jays offence scored seven runs in the 1st inning of this game, but an uncharacteristically terrible start from David Cone made it an 8-6 game heading into the 9th. Still, the Indians had just a 5% Win Expectancy after Carlos Baerga failed to bunt his way on base to lead things off. A couple of singles and an RBI groundout by Jim Thome got Cleveland to within a run, but their Win Expectancy was still just at 11%.</p>
<p>Down to their last out, first baseman Paul Sorrento stepped up to the plate and belted the first pitch he saw from Hall into the seats to give the Indians the win. One swing, -0.890 WPA. The craziest thing is that Hall only threw eight pitches in the appearance.</p>
<h4><strong>4. -0.950 WPA: Casey Janssen (September 10, 2007)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2007-09-10&amp;team=Tigers&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Almost exactly a year after sending Detroit to the World Series with a walk-off home run against the A&#8217;s in Game 6 of the ALCS, Magglio Ordonez came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the 9th and his team down a run in a game with important Wild Card implications.</p>
<p>Roy Halladay was toying with the Tigers all night, and after getting a quick ground ball double play to start the 9th it looked like Doc was headed for another complete game. Detroit had a 1% Win Expectancy when Sean Casey singled, and after another single Gibby pulled Halladay for Janssen.</p>
<p>As a general rule, even if Halladay has thrown 123 pitches, you don&#8217;t pull him for anyone with one out left. Janssen proceeded to load the bases before throwing an 0-0 meatball that Ordonez slapped into right for a two-run walk-off single.</p>
<h4><strong>3. -0.954 WPA: Jeremy Accardo (September 8, 2007)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2007-09-08&amp;team=Devil Rays&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>Just <em>two days</em> before the Ordonez walk-off, a skinny center fielder named B.J. Upton came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the 9th and his team down a run in a game that didn&#8217;t matter at all for either team.</p>
<p>This one had played out a lot like the Ordonez game: Jays starter A.J. Burnett cruised through eight innings before handing the ball over to Accardo to wrap things up. An error by Troy Glaus opened the door for a two-run shot by Delmon Young, but Accardo recovered with a quick grounder for out number two and the Rays Win Expectancy was back down to 5%. Accardo would proceed to walk Jonny Gomes before serving up a first pitch walk-off homer to Upton.</p>
<h4><strong>2. -0.959 WPA: Dennis Lamp (August 16, 1984)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1984-08-16&amp;team=Indians&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>What do Pat Tabler, Brook Jacoby, and Joe Carter have in common? They were all on the 1984 Cleveland Indians. Really makes you think!</p>
<p>Looking to close out a quality start from Dave Stieb, Lamp allowed four straight base runners to open the 9th. With the bases loaded, Lamp briefly recovered to get two quick outs before giving up a walk-off two-run double to DH Andre Thornton.</p>
<h4><strong>1. -0.960 WPA: Cliff Politte (June 7, 2003)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2003-06-07&amp;team=Reds&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The main reason why Politte takes the top spot is that WPA is an aggregated stat, and for some reason he was allowed to throw 32 pitches in this outing. Even after allowing a game-tying three-run homer to Jason LaRue, Jays Manager Carlos Tosca didn&#8217;t think to yank him. Maybe the <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/06/phillies-bullpen-phone-off-the-hook-francoeur">bullpen phone was broken</a> that night.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 10: Jonah Keri and Wish Lists for Winning Streaks</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/05/artificial-turf-wars-ep-10-jonah-keri-and-wish-lists-for-winning-streaks/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/05/artificial-turf-wars-ep-10-jonah-keri-and-wish-lists-for-winning-streaks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 May 2016 10:15:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Star]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Lincecum]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2308</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jonah Keri of Sports Illustrated, CBS, and Sportsnet stops by to talk about writing for a living, analytics on the Blue Jays broadcast, and fighting the steroid stigma. The boys also discuss booing Brett Cecil, the recent walkoff wins, Drew Storen&#8217;s resurgence, 8-man bullpens, and the brewing position battle between Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://twitter.com/jonahkeri" target="_blank">Jonah Keri</a> of Sports Illustrated, CBS, and Sportsnet stops by to talk about writing for a living, analytics on the Blue Jays broadcast, and fighting the steroid stigma. The boys also discuss booing Brett Cecil, the recent walkoff wins, Drew Storen&#8217;s resurgence, 8-man bullpens, and the brewing position battle between Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney. They also answer a bunch of listener questions, give a gold star to the broadcast, and express their wish for Tim Lincecum to someday don a Blue Jays uniform.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/805/show_8805357_2016_05_05_04_15_24.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/805/show_8805357_2016_05_05_04_15_24.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays &#8220;Stuff&#8221; Report &#8211; Volume 2</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/02/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 May 2016 15:24:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Biagini]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2189</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at www.mikesonne.ca. Welcome back to the Stuff report! [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The Blue Jays Stuff Report will be appearing in this space every two weeks. The metric was created by Dr. Mike Sonne, who has a PhD in biomechanics from McMaster University. For his work on pitcher fatigue, injury, and other baseball related research, please visit his website over at<a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-1/"> www.mikesonne.ca</a>.</em></p>
<p>Welcome back to the Stuff report! As mentioned previously, the statistic is a measure of how a pitcher&#8217;s velocity, change in velocity, and amount of break help them perform on the field (Stuff has shown to be significantly correlated with both K/9, WAR, and xFIP/ERA). The benefit of using the Stuff metric, is that you could theoretically look at a pitcher’s arsenal in a bullpen session, and with the use of radar guns and spin trackers, calculate how their good their stuff is without needing to see a hitter swing. This has implications for both scouting and rehabilitation.</p>
<p>At BP Toronto, I&#8217;m calculating Stuff for all of the Jays pitchers, every 2 weeks, over the course of the season. If you&#8217;d like to read a primer on how Stuff is calculated, check out <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/18/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-1/">Volume 1.</a> Once again I have included the raw stuff score, so you can see what they look like, as well as how that scone ranks across baseball. Not that we have all the housekeeping out of the way, let&#8217;s get to the results:</p>
<h1>Blue Jays Starters</h1>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/starters-volume-3.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2199 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/starters-volume-3-1024x201.png" alt="starters volume 3" width="794" height="156" /></a></p>
<h1 style="text-align: center"> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Starters-with-Hutch.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2193" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Starters-with-Hutch-1024x742.png" alt="Starters with Hutch" width="478" height="346" /></a></h1>
<p style="text-align: left">I&#8217;d personally like to welcome Drew Hutchison to the Stuff report, whose debut numbers are right in line with the Stuff he had during the 2015 season. That could be a good, or a bad thing, but it will be interesting to see how that plays out should he be recalled at any point. The biggest change in stuff between Volume 1 of the Stuff report and Volume 2 belongs to Marcus Stroman. Stro&#8217;s stuff was down in Volume 1 compared to 2015, but has jumped up big time after his Sunday start. This can be attributed to adding nearly 5&#8243; of break between his fastball and curveball. Not surprisingly, Stro had a massive 8IP, 9K performance against the Rays. Finally, Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s Stuff continues to get better. His stuff value has now surpassed 2.0, which houses only the most elite of pitchers. When your stuff is that good, you can really make some hitters look foolish.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=639543883&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<h1>Blue Jays Relievers</h1>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/relievers-volume-2.png"><br />
<img class="alignnone  wp-image-2196 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/relievers-volume-2-1024x248.png" alt="relievers volume 2" width="603" height="146" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relief.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-2191" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/Jays-Relief-1024x742.png" alt="Jays Relief" width="526" height="381" /></a></p>
<h1 style="text-align: center"></h1>
<p style="text-align: left">Nearly every Jays&#8217; reliever has seen a slight increase in their stuff over the past two weeks, even if the results haven&#8217;t exactly been there. Hopefully this is a sign that a breakout is on the horizon, and the Toronto bullpen is going to finally start pitching up to expectations. The pen&#8217;s best stuff belongs to Joe Biagini &#8211; buoyed by a massive amount of separation between his breaking pitches and his fastball. This type of stuff could keep the Rule V pick around all season, and potentially see him take on a larger role as the season progresses.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/BiaginiHanleyK.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2207" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/BiaginiHanleyK.gif" alt="BiaginiHanleyK" width="475" height="263" /></a></p>
<p>As for the rest of the pen, Roberto Osuna and Jesse Chavez are also still showing excellent stuff, with a nice boost for Chavez. However, the biggest increase in stuff belongs to Gavin Floyd. Even though his Stuff is worse than it was in 2015, Floyd is making nice strides which is key, seeing as he is such an important weapon for John Gibbons.</p>
<p>You&#8217;ll also notice that Venditte scores all the way down at the bottom, but that&#8217;s because he, like the knuckleballing Dickey, breaks the stuff metric. As he throws with both arms, the break on Venditte&#8217;s pitches cancel each other out, and it appears as though all of his pitched are flat, when in reality that is not at all the case. It&#8217;s pretty funny that there are three pitchers in baseball for whom &#8220;stuff&#8221; does not really apply (Steven Wright is the third), and the Blue Jays have two of them.</p>
<p>Overall, the Stuff trends for the Blue Jays pitching staff show some encouraging signs. Hopefully this means the bullpen is about to rid themselves of their early season woes, and that the starters will continue their excellence.</p>
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		<title>Artifical Turf Wars Ep. 9: It&#8217;s Getting Hard to Colabelieve</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/artifical-turf-wars-ep-9-its-getting-hard-to-colabelieve/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/artifical-turf-wars-ep-9-its-getting-hard-to-colabelieve/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Apr 2016 10:07:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Colabello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cliché of the Week]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2093</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Greg, Josh, and Chris discuss the Chris Colabello suspension (and give themselves a Do-Over in the process), the offensive and bullpen woes, the strong starting pitching, and a confusing situation involving Marco Estrada&#8217;s shoulder. They also answer listener questions, give out a Cliché of the Week and tackle one of Justin Smoak&#8217;s defensive quirks. Note: [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Greg, Josh, and Chris discuss the Chris Colabello suspension (and give themselves a Do-Over in the process), the offensive and bullpen woes, the strong starting pitching, and a confusing situation involving Marco Estrada&#8217;s shoulder. They also answer listener questions, give out a Cliché of the Week and tackle one of Justin Smoak&#8217;s defensive quirks. </p>
<p><strong>Note: Starting next week, the Podcast will be appearing on Thursday mornings.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/774/show_8774133_2016_04_29_06_12_04.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/774/show_8774133_2016_04_29_06_12_04.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>And the Gif we promised you on the pod:<br />
<iframe src="https://gfycat.com/ifr/SlimArcticGreatargus" width="500" height="282" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 8: The Big 50 Moments that Didn&#8217;t Happen Recently</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/artificial-turf-wars-ep-8-the-big-50-moments-that-didnt-happen-recently/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Apr 2016 10:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Artificial Turf Wars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Do-Over]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Offense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spin Rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1847</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Shi Davidi of Sportsnet stops by to discuss his upcoming book, &#8220;The Big 50: Toronto Blue Jays,&#8221; and some early season trends. The guys then tackle the recent week that was, with a focus on the incredible performance of the starting rotation, the odd bullpen usage, some lackluster hitting, and an odd start to the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi" target="_blank">Shi Davidi</a> of Sportsnet stops by to discuss his upcoming book, &#8220;<a href="https://www.amazon.ca/The-Big-50-Toronto-Moments/dp/1629372080" target="_blank">The Big 50: Toronto Blue Jays</a>,&#8221; and some early season trends. The guys then tackle the recent week that was, with a focus on the incredible performance of the starting rotation, the odd bullpen usage, some lackluster hitting, and an odd start to the season for Justin Smoak. Finally, the guys tackle spin rates and give Do-Over to a popular Toronto radio personality.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/735/show_8735123_2016_04_22_04_18_14.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://s3.amazonaws.com/btr.shows/8/735/show_8735123_2016_04_22_04_18_14.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="125" height="46" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a>, <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a> and <a title="@CWSherwin" href="https://twitter.com/CWSherwin" target="_blank">@CWSherwin</a></p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Buying A Bullpen: How Do The Jays Compare?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/19/buying-a-bullpen-how-do-the-jays-compare/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/19/buying-a-bullpen-how-do-the-jays-compare/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2016 10:15:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Payroll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1128</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s a common refrain of the sabermetrically inclined that you shouldn&#8217;t spend money on bullpens. It&#8217;s easy to see why this is: a pitcher that can throw 180-200 innings in a season (a starter) will usually be more valuable than someone whose peak is around 70 innings (a reliever). Even accounting for leverage and situations, the best [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a common refrain of the sabermetrically inclined that you shouldn&#8217;t spend money on bullpens. It&#8217;s easy to see why this is: a pitcher that can throw 180-200 innings in a season (a starter) will usually be more valuable than someone whose peak is around 70 innings (a reliever). Even accounting for leverage and situations, the best reliever in baseball by WARP (the Yankees&#8217; <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49775">Dellin Betances</a>) isn&#8217;t as valuable as someone like<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=5034"> R.A. Dickey</a>, a player <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/22/how-we-can-appreciate-reliable-starter-r-a-dickey/">whose public perception doesn&#8217;t necessarily line up with his value</a>. And Betances&#8217; number is less than a third as much as the best starter in baseball by WARP, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49786">Clayton Kershaw</a>.</p>
<p>We did see a bit of a different trend in the last offseason, however. With the Royals having made the World Series two years in a row, and having had excellent bullpens both seasons, other teams set out to form their own fantastic relief cores. Boston traded for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70812">Carson Smith</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58350">Craig Kimbrel</a>. The Yankees acquired <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53014">Aroldis Chapman</a>, even with <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49617">Andrew Miller</a> and the aforementioned Betances already in tow. Even the Blue Jays got in on the action a bit, acquiring deposed Nationals closer <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59345">Drew Storen</a>. All sports tend to copy success, and the Royals having success with their bullpen meant teams were going to try and emulate that.</p>
<p>In building these better bullpens, however, teams had to commit resources to doing so, in prospects and/or cash. In that vein, for money and value, let&#8217;s see how the Blue Jays compare to some of their competitors. We&#8217;re going to stack them up against the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Royals- three divisional competitors, and the team that set the gold standard for bullpens. For the purposes of this comparison, we&#8217;re using the 2016 PECOTA projections, and the 50th percentile of those projections- in plain terms, the average outcome. Innings were rounded to the nearest third of an inning, and $ per WARP rounded to two digits after the million. I generally went with the team&#8217;s current bullpen, and limited it to seven players, though there are some exceptions that will be explained when we go through the teams.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-jays.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1504" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-jays.png" alt="bullpen - jays" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> For the Jays, I did not include the DFA&#8217;d <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50390">Arnold Leon</a>, and did included the recently injured <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48448">Franklin Morales</a> over the less recently injured <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60619">Aaron Loup</a> or call up <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58768">Pat Venditte.</a> That&#8217;s an educated guess as to who spends the most time on the roster, given Venditte having options, and Loup&#8217;s struggles last season. It should also be noted that the Jays could cut Morales and save three quarters of his salary, which they may do if he&#8217;s below replacement, as his projections suggest. The projections also include a handful of starts for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47279">Jesse Chavez</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31534">Gavin Floyd</a>, and Morales, which I would deem as probable, possible, and unlikely, in that order. Eagle-eyed watchers will note that Storen&#8217;s salary is lower than it&#8217;s actual number, because I accounted for the money that the Nationals sent over to cover part of his salary.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> The Jays are spending <strong>$6.22 million per WARP </strong>on their bullpen, based on these projections. With the late inning trio of Osuna, Storen, and Cecil, most would say this is a fine bullpen. After an uneven season last year for the Jays&#8217; bullpen, there was a focus in the off-season in adding depth, and pitchers capable of starting games if needed. Storen was the flashy pickup, but Chavez and Floyd provide additional value with less fanfare. It&#8217;s interesting seeing how the value is distributed according to money, because Osuna, who makes the minimum, grades out the best pitcher. But let&#8217;s see how the Jays stack up against the rest here.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-yankees.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1508" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-yankees.png" alt="bullpen - yankees" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> Even though <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53014">Aroldis Chapman</a> is not currently on the team due to his suspension, it would have been disingenuous to not include him in the Yankees&#8217; calculations, given his talent level. That meant dropping one of their current pitchers, so I kept <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68506">John Barbato</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59239">Kirby Yates</a>, and dropped <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66339">Luis Cessa</a>, because he has starts included in his projections, and skews the calculation the most. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49832">Ivan Nova</a> also has starts included, but he&#8217;s more likely to stick with the team, given his history.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis: </strong>The Yankees have a top-heavy bullpen, but they, like the Jays, will probably get the most value from a young pitcher making the minimum. Betances&#8217; ascension has given them a fearsome late inning combination, one that will be bolstered further by the pending return of Chapman. With players like Betances and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67118">Chasen Shreve</a> (and the departed <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60759">Adam Warren</a>), the Yankees have done a good job over the last couple years finding value to fill out their bullpen, to compliment the high priced assets. Though they&#8217;ve spent more money than the Jays, they certainly have more talent, so they grade out a little better at <strong>$5.76 million per WARP</strong>.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-red-sox.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1506" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-red-sox.png" alt="bullpen - red sox" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> Another one where we accounted for an injury, and this time, I put in <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70812">Carson Smith</a> over <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55935">Tommy Layne</a>, who is currently on the roster. No one&#8217;s quite sure when Smith will come back, so this projection could be less optimistic than the results. PECOTA doesn&#8217;t differentiate a lot once you get past the top few here.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> PECOTA seems more bearish than I would be on Boston&#8217;s bullpen, which seems to have reasonable depth at first glance. One suspects they don&#8217;t care for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58350">Craig Kimbrel</a>&#8216;s move to the tougher American League East, or figure that <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=44014">Koji Uehara</a>&#8216;s age will slow him down at some point. Or perhaps this just reinforces the idea of relievers not making a ton of difference. The projections make the view of the Boston bullpen less flattering, as they&#8217;re spending <strong>$10.57 million per WARP</strong>. Given the struggles their relievers at points last season, the acquisitions of Kimbrel and Smith still made sense for a team that sees themselves as contenders.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-rays.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1505" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-rays.png" alt="bullpen - rays" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> The Rays started the year without presumptive closer <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=65809">Brad Boxberger</a>. He&#8217;s in for this one, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/p/49130">Ryan Webb</a>, who is currently in the bullpen, is out, as he had the least optimistic projections of the current group for the Rays. Former Blue Jay <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45525">Dana Eveland</a> checks in with six spot starts in his calculation.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> The Rays&#8217; opening day budget was under $70 million for their entire roster, so it&#8217;s unsurprising that their bullpen is a who&#8217;s who of &#8220;who&#8217;s that?&#8221; And while they certainly did an excellent job of saving money, as their efficiency gives them a rosy <strong>$1.75 million spent per WARP</strong>, there are questions that come with the course they&#8217;ve chosen. There&#8217;s a lower ceiling for performance with their lesser talent, and there will be questions as to defined roles until Boxberger returns. But on a team that&#8217;s always concerned about their budget, this is the best approach, even if they lack the upside of the others teams in the division.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-royals.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1507" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-royals.png" alt="bullpen - royals" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> I desperately wanted to find a way to include current Royal <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31803">Chien-Ming Wang</a> in this group, but with <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59266">Mike Minor</a> scheduled to return in May, I assume Wang&#8217;s the one that will bite the dust. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56197">Danny Duffy</a> has fifteen starts in his projections, which inflate his numbers.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> We notice a couple things right away about the Royals&#8217; collection of arms. First, that they intentionally spent money on everyone, with not a single player making the minimum. Secondly, there are a lot of former/failed starters in this list, with only <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56449">Kevin Herrera</a> having been a reliever for his entire major league career. I&#8217;m surprised by the results here, though. The numbers have the Royals as the least cost-effective of our sample group, spending <strong>$10.78 million per WARP </strong>on their bullpen. It should be noted though that PECOTA hasn&#8217;t liked the Royals in the past, either. The loss of an effective <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57708">Greg Holland</a> hurts them, though their track record and high-end talent will probably make this group better than the numbers suggest.</p>
<p>Even with these four teams, we have seen several different ways of building a bullpen. From a statistical standpoint, it may not make a lot of difference- the spread between the worst relief corps to the best is only 2.3 WARP. Each team had a clear philosophy in who they acquired, and how much they paid for them. The Rays clip coupons and cut corners wherever they can, taking home trophies for being efficient and saving money, but are rarely able to crack the glass ceiling in a cutthroat division. Would an improved bullpen help that? Probably not as much as a bigger budget overall. So saving money makes sense.</p>
<p>The Yankees and Red Sox throw their financial weight around, supplementing any bargains and fixing problems whenever they come up. The Yankees didn&#8217;t really need Aroldis Chapman, but saw a bargain (for unpleasant reasons) and decided that another elite arm would help them get back to the top of the A.L. East. Boston&#8217;s pen struggled with depth at times in 2015, with only Koji Uehara and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58984">Junichi Tazawa</a> as reliable options to finish off games. Their offseason saw them add two crucial pieces to their bullpen puzzle.</p>
<p>The reigning champion Royals are the trend-setters, and have built their own philosophy, with a clear belief in proven performers and defined roles in a bullpen. Various projection systems have never been able to quantify that value, but the Royals don&#8217;t worry about what the projections say. They have the results. No amount of regression or bad luck will take away the two American League pennants, or the World Series banner that hangs in Kauffman Stadium. If insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome, perhaps the Royals are entirely sane to keep doing something that has been working until it doesn&#8217;t.</p>
<p>As for the Jays, they grade out fine, looking at their competitors, sitting smack-dab in the middle of these teams in how they&#8217;ve spent. They&#8217;ve acquired the arms in a variety of ways: free agency (Floyd, Morales), trades(Chavez, Storen), a Rule 5 pick (Biagini) and their own homegrown talent (Cecil, Osuna). Their bullpen has had rough games so far, and like any bullpen, will have a few more blown games before the season&#8217;s out, but the talent is there, and they weren&#8217;t afraid to add when the opportunity to acquire Drew Storen came up. They&#8217;ve got more depth this year at AAA, which they&#8217;ve already had to tap into because of injuries (hello, Pat Venditte), and more arms ready when someone else gets dinged up.</p>
<p>For now, the Jays should have confidence in their bullpen &#8211; both how it will perform for the rest of the season, and the process by which it was assembled. They probably won&#8217;t be the best relievers in baseball, but the Jays don&#8217;t need them to be the best. They just need it to be fine, and it can definitely be that.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Making Sense of Confusing Managerial Decisions</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/why-odd-blue-jays-managerial-decisions-sometimes-make-sense/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/14/why-odd-blue-jays-managerial-decisions-sometimes-make-sense/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2016 10:11:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Managers]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Last week I wrote a piece for this site wherein I expressed displeasure at how John Gibbons, and other managers, ignore leverage when deciding who should be coming out the bullpen at key points in games. I feel that I had good cause to make that point, as the very next night in the sixth [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week I wrote a piece for this site wherein <a title="How a Poor First Series Bullpen Trend Could Hurt the Jays" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/08/how-a-poor-first-series-bullpen-trend-could-hurt-the-jays/" target="_blank">I expressed displeasure</a> at how John Gibbons, and other managers, ignore leverage when deciding who should be coming out the bullpen at key points in games. I feel that I had good cause to make that point, as the very next night in the sixth inning, Gibbons went to Jesse Chavez (and would have gone to Franklin Morales had he not been hurt) with two outs and the bases loaded and a 7-2 lead. As most of you reading this will well remember, Chavez immediately served up a grand slam to Brock Holt, reducing the advantge from five runs down to one. The Red Sox would score twice more in the 7th inning and hold on to win the game 8-7.</p>
<p>Had the Jays gone to one of their higher leverage relievers like Brett Cecil to face Holt (or likely pinch hitter Chris Young), they could have squashed the rally then and there, and probably would have gone on to an easy victory. It was maddening to see the same issue pop up again, and to have it once again cost the Blue Jays a victory.</p>
<p>However, as <a title="On Roberto Osuna, Aaron Sanchez, and a Player’s Wish" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/23/on-roberto-osuna-aaron-sanchez-and-a-players-wish/" target="_blank">I mentioned a few weeks back</a>, we like to think of these relief pitchers as pieces on a chess board to maneuver at whim, when in reality they are very real people with different sets of needs. It turns out the reason Cecil wasn’t brought in is because he wasn’t ready to pitch yet. As for why he wasn’t ready, we turn to the man himself (<a href="http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/04/10/blue-jays-bullpen-makes-amends-in-red-sox-series-finale-griffin.html" target="_blank">courtesy of the Toronto Star’s Richard Griffin</a>):</p>
<p><em>“It’s always nice to have a comfort level, know when you’re going to pitch, where you’re slotted to pitch,” said Cecil, the longest-serving Jays pitcher. “It definitely makes guys more comfortable, especially late in the game, knowing when to start getting ready. If you start getting ready too early, you kind of tire yourself out a little bit. When you don’t know when you’re going to go in, getting caught off-guard when you haven’t even stretched or anything yet. So it definitely gives a lot of comfort knowing where they’re going to be slotted at to pitch.”</em></p>
<p>We often hear about how relief pitchers get comfortable and tend to pitch better when they “know their roles,” but we never really get to hear what exactly that means. Thankfully, Cecil pulled back the curtain and made some really interesting points. You certainly DON’T want your late inning relievers getting tired because they started getting ready too early. That’s how leads are blown. And at the same time, you don’t want to bring them in before they’re ready. That might be part of why Hunter was hit so hard in the example I outlined last week. As a late-game reliever, he simply might not have been mentally and physically prepared to pitch in the second inning.</p>
<p>This just further proves why teams need to have a deep bullpen and a corps full of people that the manager can trust to get outs in any situation.</p>
<p>Cecil’s quote wasn’t the only interesting thing in that piece, however. At one point Griffin makes note of how the Jays were planning to finish off their series finale win against Boston:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;As Storen and Osuna finished off Estrada’s Sunday shutout, Cecil had been warming up just in case the lead went to four and there was no save.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Surely we can take umbrage with <em>that</em> one. The save is just a silly stat that was invented by a writer years ago. Like the win, managers shouldn’t be letting that dictate pitching decisions. It should be decided based on need and merit, right? Well&#8230;maybe not. That line of thinking ignores one very important factor: money.</p>
<p>Arbitration may be slowly starting to make advances towards joining the 21st century, but the system still clearly values and rewards counting stats. For hitters, that means runs, RBI, AVG, and home runs, and for pitchers, things like wins and saves go a long way towards determining just how much money a player can make. When you add in bonuses for All-Star game appearances or post-season award voting, both of which are heavily influenced by seemingly archaic counting stats, it’s clear that things like wins and saves still carry a lot of financial weight.</p>
<p>While worrying about payroll is far beyond the job scope of any major league manager, keeping players happy very much falls within their purview, and they’re very aware of money’s influence on player happiness. The money quote on this comes from Cardinals manager Mike Matheny (<a href="http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/matheny-contracts-can-t-be-ignored-in-setting-bullpen-roles/article_92da9db5-ecb9-591d-9939-e1d2e2762f8a.html?utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=facebook&amp;utm_campaign=user-share" target="_blank">via Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch</a>)</p>
<p><em>“There are personal statistics that help drive personal achievement as far as salaries go. For us to be completely oblivious to that, I think is a mistake as well. </em><em>Then you start having some friction,” Matheny continued. “There are outside influences that are constantly pushing these guys toward the statistics that are going to get them paid someday, right?”</em></p>
<p>Matheny is often criticized for how he deploys his relievers, but the quote above provides a level of understanding of the game that can&#8217;t be found just from watching. There is just so much more than Xs and Os that goes into every decision made by a major league skipper.</p>
<p>At some point, you have probably heard some <a title="One At-Bat: Arnold Leon vs. Steven Souza" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/13/one-at-bat-arnold-leon-vs-steven-souza/" target="_blank">variation on the saying</a> “managers rarely win games, but they do lose them.” It’s a pretty reasonable statement, as the wrong move is far more likely to hurt you than the right one is to help. What this ignores is that the managers job is to win the most games over the course of a season, and sometimes, for reasons we can never truly know from outside the clubhouse, that may mean making seemingly questionable decisions for the long term good. If certain seemingly poor decisions become a habit, we can probably rightly criticize. But every now and then, there might just be a hidden wisdom that we were unable to see.</p>
<p>As Joe Sheehan suggested on <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28850" target="_blank">Effectively Wild last week</a>, &#8220;on a day to day basis, over 183 days [in the regular season], whether you pick the right hitter or use the right reliever kind of comes out to a wash for the most part. When you have to win 11 games over three weeks [in the postseason], it becomes very important.&#8221; So, let&#8217;s just take a step back, and hope we can get to the point where all of this <em>really</em> matters.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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