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	<title>Toronto &#187; Boston Red Sox</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Red Sox</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/04/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-red-sox-4/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Sep 2017 13:45:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Dave Church, Dylan Svoboda, &#38; Gideon Turk Doug Fister&#8217;s Rejuvination The Blue Jays are dodging the bullet that is Chris Sale this week, but they will be running into Boston&#8217;s next best starting pitcher of late on Wednesday, Doug Fister. Fister was claimed off of waivers from the Los Angeles Angels by the Red [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Dave Church, Dylan Svoboda, &amp; Gideon Turk</em></p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">Doug Fister&#8217;s Rejuvination</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays are dodging the bullet that is Chris Sale this week, but they will be running into Boston&#8217;s next best starting pitcher of late on Wednesday, Doug Fister.</p>
<p>Fister was claimed off of waivers from the Los Angeles Angels by the Red Sox on June 23rd and placed straight into their starting rotation. He didn&#8217;t last very long. From June 25th to July 20th, the thirty-three-year-old right-hander threw 21 2/3 innings and posted a 6.23 earned run average.</p>
<p>Only eleven days passed before he found his way back into the Red Sox rotation on July 31st, replacing the injured David Price. He has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball since.</p>
<p>Fister&#8217;s 3.05 earned run average is 22nd-best in baseball among those with over 30 innings pitched since July 31st. Over that same period, his fielding independent pitching is 3.25, 16th-best in baseball, suggesting there isn&#8217;t much luck involved in his recent hot streak. By fielding independent pitching, August was Fister&#8217;s best full month of pitching since September 2013.</p>
<p>Fister&#8217;s recent dominance may have something to do with a different pitch mix. He has not thrown his four-seam fastball since July 24th, and instead he has started relying more on his sinker, cutter, and curveball. He had used the pitch over 12 percent of the time this year prior to July 24th.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays will be Fister&#8217;s latest test. With such a small sample size of success for the veteran, who has otherwise had two-and-a-half years of barely replacement level performance, the Jays can do their part in raising some doubts.</p>
<h3>Carrera Crowded Out</h3>
<p>Ezequiel Carrera has been the Blue Jays&#8217; third best hitter among qualified players so far this season, behind Justin Smoak and Josh Donaldson. This is because of both <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/29/ezequiel-carreras-approach-is-evolving/">improvements from Carrera</a> and disappointing seasons from several Blue Jays veterans. In a season where the Jays have been much worse than expected, Carrera&#8217;s steady play at the plate has seen him set several career highs in offensive categories.</p>
<p>Despite a career year, Carrera started a grand total of nine games in August, which may come as a surprise given how well he&#8217;s hit (and how much the lineup could use his bat). There are several reasons this happened. A healthy and productive Steve Pearce mostly blocked him in left field. Carrera occasionally played for Kevin Pillar and Jose Bautista, but this was unlikely to be a regular occurrence. Bautista is a regular as long as he wants to be, and Pillar is much better defensively in centre field.</p>
<p>The calendar turning to September has not made this picture clearer. Though recent acquisition Nori Aoki was given his walking papers, the Jays called up Michael Saunders and Teoscar Hernandez, the latter of whom is likely to receive significant playing time as the Jays attempt to suss out their outfield situation for 2018. And there are other potential outfield callups on the horizon, as Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith Jr. are both on the 40 man roster, and have played with the Jays this season.</p>
<p>A crowded outfield with both established (if underperforming) stars and exciting prospects means Carrera is probably the odd man out in a September that will be more forward-looking for the Jays. A veteran having a career season will probably have to grin and bear through it for a team playing out the string. Though Zeke can rest comfortably knowing he&#8217;ll be in the outfield picture for the Jays when 2018 rolls around with an opportunity to lock down a starting role, for now, that isn&#8217;t the case.</p>
<h3>Sinking or Spoiling</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays are pretty close to being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but the rest of their season is far from meaningless. As they enter a three game series with the division leading Red Sox, they have two paths moving forward this year.</p>
<p>The first one is to continue to lose ballgames like they have all season long. With their 63-74 record, they currently find themselves with the tenth worst record in Major League Baseball, two games worse than the 11th place Pittsburgh Pirates, and only one game better than the ninth place San Diego Padres. There are only five wins separating the Blue Jays from the fourth worst record in baseball, occupied by the Cincinnati Reds as of now. The Blue Jays, with some bad play over the next few weeks, have a real chance of upping their draft position for 2018. One nice long losing streak and the Blue Jays could have a top-5 pick in 2018&#8217;s amateur draft, where the odds of landing an impact player increase greatly over being in the six through fifteen range.</p>
<p>Then, there exists option two. The Red Sox have lost 6 of their last 10 games. They are not playing well of late, and have seen their once large division lead close to just 3.5 games over the New York Yankees. Even if they themselves can&#8217;t make the playoffs, the Blue Jays can force the Red Sox to fight for their right to make the playoffs a bit longer. There is no long term gain in this, but spoiling the Red Sox to the point where they would have to play in a wild card game would be fun to watch, and give the players something to go out on the field every day and fight for while playing. That&#8217;s a lot easier than trying your best in order to get a draft pick. Win two our of three or sweep the series, and the Red Sox will be in serious trouble if the Yankees continue to play well.</p>
<p>Either way, the Blue Jays season still has some potential to be meaningful left in it. One version just provides some entertainment for the next few weeks, while the other is&#8230; more of an investment.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Red Sox</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/30/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-red-sox/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Jun 2017 15:59:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Cole Nefsky, Gideon Turk, and Sean Addis  The Red Sox Shocking Lack of Lineup Depth Coming off a season in which Mookie Betts put up a good run for the MVP, Andrew Benintendi was promoted mashing, and the Red Sox as a team led the majors in runs scored, you would think that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><strong><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Cole Nefsky, Gideon Turk, and Sean Addis</span></i></strong></p>
<h3 style="text-align: left"> The Red Sox Shocking Lack of Lineup Depth</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Coming off a season in which Mookie Betts put up a good run for the MVP, Andrew Benintendi was promoted mashing, and the Red Sox as a team led the majors in runs scored, you would think that despite losing David Ortiz, they would still have a top tier offense. This certainly has not been the case so far. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Red Sox are fifteenth in the league in runs scored, as close to the middle as you can be in an even-numbered team league. The disappointment has been evenly spread throughout the team. Betts hasn’t lived up to last year, with his TAv falling .017 points to .279, Pedroia has a career worst .264 to go along with Benintendi’s .268. Sandy Leon hasn’t been keeping the miracle of last season alive, Christian Vazquez has hit like Christian Vazquez, and Hanley Ramirez is playing a lot like an aging ex-shortstop with dwindling power and some horrible BABIP luck. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This team’s offense certainly isn’t dead, given that many of these guys have the ability to turn it around at any minute, but it’s not the monster it was last year, and we should be much more worried about scoring runs than preventing them in this series.</span></p>
<h3>Steve Pearce Is Regressing&#8230;in the Best Possible Way</h3>
<p>When he isn&#8217;t spending time rehabbing from injury, Steve Pearce is actually a professional baseball player who is supposed to be occupying left field and providing bottom of the order power for the Blue Jays. However, that task has come a lot harder to Pearce than one would have expected going into the year; he got off to a horrific start with the club before he landed himself on the DL, hitting just .209 with a .629 OPS  as of May 14th. Pearce worked his way back from injury and was back with the club again on June 16th. Since then, it&#8217;s been nothing but success.</p>
<p>In nine games and 29 plate appearances, Pearce is batting .500/.552/.731, a level of success that has raised his overall batting line up to the point where he now has a respectable .786 OPS in 2017. How has this occurred? One word: Luck.  His BABIP in April and May was .232. In June, it is .571. Neither of those numbers is sustainable, but what it tells us is that Pearce wasn&#8217;t as bad as he was playing before, and he isn&#8217;t as good as he is now. (Shocking that a player won&#8217;t hit .500 for the entire season!) His career BABIP is .290, so this regression was always predictable.</p>
<p>His BABIP numbers aren&#8217;t convincing enough for you? How about looking at his exit velocity data? In his first stint before the disabled list trip, Pearce had an average exit velocity of 88.7 MPH. Since returning, it has actually gone down, all the way to 84.5 MPH! Pearce is making worse contact than he was before, and getting more hits. How? Because they are finding holes, whereas over the course of the first two months of the season, they were finding gloves.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays were due for some positive regression, and Steve Pearce is definitely the beneficiary of some of it right now.</p>
<h3>Chris Sale Is Getting Better</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Game two of the series will be the Canada Day game on Saturday afternoon.  The Blue Jays will have the unenviable task of facing Boston ace, lefthander Chris Sale. In April he absolutely dominated the Blue Jays, pitching eight scoreless innings allowing four hits and striking out 13.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Sale has had a great first season in Beantown, posting his lowest BB/9 (1.7), hits/9 (6.5), HR/9 (0.7, which doesn’t bode well for a home run dependent team), and his highest K/9 (12.3). Why the early season dominance? </span><a href="https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/6/9/15749374/chris-sale-red-sox-fastball-velocity-changeup-slider-improvement"><span style="font-weight: 400">As Ryan Schultz wrote on June 9</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> for Beyond the Box score,</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> Sale has altered his approach. He is throwing his fastball and sinker with more velocity, while using his assortment of pitches more effectively. Sale has moved away from relying as heavily on his fastball, with a reduction from 45.3 percent previously to 34.9 percent this year, and has increased the usage of his very good changeup and back door slider to shut down righties. The results have been devastating for the opposition as right-handed hitters are hitting .202 this season, compared to .227 over the previous three years.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Toronto has historically struggled against the lefty with a slash line of .184/.238/.316. Add to the the Blue Jays&#8217; overall struggles this season against southpaws, Sale not being prone to the home run ball, and his improved effectiveness against righties, and it could be another Canada Day game at the Rogers Centre where there isn’t much to celebrate for Blue Jays fans.</span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Steve Pearce on Breaking Through an Early Season Slump</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/steve-pearce-on-breaking-through-an-early-season-slump/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Apr 2017 11:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO &#8212; Baseball can be a funny game. The harder you try the more the game tends to slip away from you. The entirety of the Toronto Blue Jays roster has frustratingly dealt with this all season with the team breaking out of the gates to a dismal 5-13 record. They know they’re a good [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO &#8212; Baseball can be a funny game. The harder you try the more the game tends to slip away from you.</p>
<p>The entirety of the Toronto Blue Jays roster has frustratingly dealt with this all season with the team breaking out of the gates to a dismal 5-13 record. They know they’re a good team, but when they press and try to overcome their slow art in a single game nothing seems to break right.</p>
<p>Few individually have felt this more than newcomer Steve Pearce. After a scorching Opening Day start where the 34-year-old got three hits and scored a run, Pearce managed to equal his first game output of three hits in his next 32 at-bats.</p>
<p>What Pearce has been trying to focus on during this rut is simple, “just getting better.”</p>
<p>“Bottom line we got to get better, individually and as a team.” Pearce said prior to the Jays’ 3-0 win over the Boston Red Sox last Wednesday night at Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>Pearce has admitted to pressing in the opening weeks of the season and trying to do too much at times. What he’s lost during that time is his feel for the game. The feel of the game coming to him instead of chasing it. Seeing the ball out of the pitcher’s hand and making solid contact on a consistent basis.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Bottom line we got to get better, individually and as a team.” &#8211; Steve Pearce</p></blockquote>
<p>As funny as it may sound, in baseball sometimes less is more. When you start to try to do too much you end up pressing and making things more complicated for yourself.</p>
<p>“That’s when everything gets tense. You can’t play the kind of game you want to play when you’re tense,” Pearce said. “The looser you are, the better you feel, the better your production’s going to be, the better you’re going to feel, the better chance you have to get a base hit.</p>
<p>“This game can move so fast. The pitchers are so good that you really have to be in the best position in order to get base hits. They’re throwing 95 mph and if you’re tense that’s going to get blown right by you. You need your body free, and you need to be able to see the ball and unload on it.</p>
<p>“You know what they say, ‘if you’re thinking, you’re stinking.’ …You got to go up there and just see the ball and hit the ball.”</p>
<p>Manager John Gibbons knows this too.</p>
<p>“Baseball’s a different sport. In other sports you can run harder, you can hit somebody harder, you can give a better effort and that can work to your benefit. (In) baseball the harder you try the worse it gets sometimes,” Gibbons said.</p>
<blockquote><p>Baseball’s a different sport. In other sports you can run harder, you can hit somebody harder, you can give a better effort and that can work to your benefit. (In) baseball the harder you try the worse it gets sometimes.” &#8211; John Gibbons</p></blockquote>
<p>For Pearce that has led to a dreadfully slow start to his season slashing a meagre .162/.205/.162. It’s not for lack of talent either as Pearce has averaged 93 games, 16 home runs, 41 RBIs with a slash line of .267/.347/.493 over the last three seasons. All spent in the AL East.</p>
<p>His familiarity of the division however has not benefitted the Lakeland, FL. native, despite all but two of Toronto’s first 15 games coming against the AL East.</p>
<p>Even left-handed pitchers, Pearce’s bread and butter, have kept his offense at bay. Pearce hit .309 with seven home runs in 81 at-bats last season against lefties, and has slashed .264/.347/.489 in his career versus southpaws, but is just 2-for-19 with eight  strikeouts against them this season.</p>
<p>The sample size is small, and the stats magnified this early in the season, but there’s no denying that the first few weeks of the season have been less than ideal for Pearce.</p>
<p>When he’s slumping Pearce relies on video, stats sheets, pitching tendencies, and any other source available to Major Leaguers these days to try and break out of it, but at the end of the day it essentially comes down to feel.</p>
<p>“It’s mostly about feel. You just got to find a feel,” Pearce said. “Your mechanics they could be on or off, but if you feel good that’s really the most important part.</p>
<p>“If you get in that box and you feel good it’s definitely a heck of a lot better than anything. You could be mechanically sound, you could have the perfect BP, the perfect cage swing, but underneath the lights it’s a completely different ball game.”</p>
<p>With three hits in his last four games, Pearce is is at his best production level since his first game as a Blue Jay. A baby step in the right direction.</p>
<p>It’s more than enough for his manager, who has full confidence in his team, and the men on it.</p>
<p>“Pearcey is going to hit,” Gibbons said. “He’s going to hit some home runs, he’s going to swing it for us pretty good.”</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 2, Red Sox 1; Sanchez and Tulo Push the Jays to the Playoffs</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/02/recap-blue-jays-2-red-sox-1-sanchez-and-tulo-push-the-jays-to-the-playoffs/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Oct 2016 22:46:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The narrative for game 162 could not have been better scripted. Facing the American League East champions on David Ortiz&#8217;s final regular season game of his career, the Toronto Blue Jays sought to clinch a berth in the wild card game. Aaron Sanchez was charged with the task of tackling Boston&#8217;s potent lineup, a start that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The narrative for game 162 could not have been better scripted.</p>
<p>Facing the American League East champions on David Ortiz&#8217;s final regular season game of his career, the Toronto Blue Jays sought to clinch a berth in the wild card game. Aaron Sanchez was charged with the task of tackling Boston&#8217;s potent lineup, a start that likely would have been impossible had the organization not found creative ways to limit the young hurler&#8217;s innings this season. The Red Sox countered with David Price, whom they signed after he had been so instrumental in the Jays&#8217; 2015 postseason run.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays had several early scoring opportunities but, as has been the trend recently, were unable to capitalize. Jose Bautista led off the second inning with a walk, but was thrown out at the plate after Troy Tulowitzki doubled off the Green Monster on what may have been an ill-advised send by the third base coach. In the fourth, a lead-off walk to Edwin Encarnacion followed by a Bautista single put two men on with no outs, but no one could drive them home.</p>
<p>The Jays finally got on the board when, with two out in the top of the fifth, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1200978083">Devon Travis launched a Price pitch 352 feet over the Green Monster in left field</a> that remained just fair to give the Jays a 1-0 lead.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Aaron Sanchez, meanwhile, pitched an absolute gem against the best offense in baseball, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning thanks to some outstanding defensive plays behind him. Sanchez&#8217;s one and only mistake in the game came with two outs in the bottom of the seventh, when he hung a breaking pitch to Hanley Ramirez, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1201389383">who crushed a 394-foot home run</a> that was ruled fair after review.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">The Jays went right back to work in the top of the eighth, with a single by Josh Donaldson to lead off the inning followed by a walk to Edwin Encarnacion. With a chance to do some damage, Jose Bautista grounded into a double play, leaving Encarnacion at second with two out. After a walk to Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki came up clutch with a <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1201452983">single to centre to drive in Encarnacion</a> and give the Jays a 2-1 lead.</p>
<p>The bottom of the ninth became incredibly intense when, after two quick outs, Roberto Osuna surrendered a walk and a single to bring Jackie Bradly Jr to the plate. Not one to panic, Osuna got Bradly Jr. to ground out, securing home field advantage in the wild card game.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s two-out, two-on go-ahead clutch single off Brett Ziegler in the top of the eighth inning was the difference in this game and the top play by WPA (.242).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Jose Bautista&#8217;s GIDP with two on and no outs in the top of the eighth was the bottom play would have provided the Jays with some breathing room and was the bottom play of the game by WPA. (-.198)</p>
<h3>Aaron Sanchez is the AL ERA Champion</h3>
<p>Aaron Sanchez was absolutely lights out today, and his sensational performance of two-hit, one-run ball lowered his ERA to 3.00 &#8211; the lowest in the American League amongst qualified pitchers.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Postseason, baby! The combination of Blue Jays win with the Tigers loss means that the Jays will host the wild card game against the Orioles Tuesday night. The winner of this one-and-done game will face the Texas Rangers in the ALDS.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bob DeChiara &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 3; Ortiz Haunts Jays Again</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/30/recap-red-sox-5-blue-jays-3-ortiz-haunts-jays-again/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Oct 2016 03:24:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[With just three game remaining in the regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays shipped up to Boston to play their ultimate &#8211; and by far most important &#8211; series of 2016. After having played 159 games, the Jays found themselves in a tie with the Baltimore Orioles for the wild card position, with Detroit and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With just three game remaining in the regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays shipped up to Boston to play their ultimate &#8211; and by far most important &#8211; series of 2016. After having played 159 games, the Jays found themselves in a tie with the Baltimore Orioles for the wild card position, with Detroit and Seattle in hot pursuit. Win in Boston, and the Jays could control their own destiny. Lose, and the Jays would be at the mercy of the out-of-town scoreboard.</p>
<p>After waiting out a 27-minute rain delay, the Jays and Red Sox finally got down to business. The Red Sox got to Marco Estrada early, making him work through a thirty-four pitch first that included a walk, wild pitch and a RBI single to David Ortiz to give Boston an early 1-0 lead.</p>
<p>Through the first four innings, the Jays&#8217; recent offensive struggles continued. Though they managed four hits and a walk off of Cy Young candidate Rick Porcello but, as has happened far too often in September, were unable to capitalize on their opportunities.</p>
<p>What transpired next serves perfectly as a microcosm of the Jays&#8217; 2016 campaign.</p>
<p>Devon Travis led off the fifth inning with a double to centre field, subsequently scoring the Jays first run after a single by Ezequiel Carerra and Josh Donaldson sacrifice fly. After Edwin Encarnacion flied out, Jose Bautista stepped up to the plate with one on and two out and jacked what might was, in that moment, the Jays biggest home run of the season:</p>
<p>http://m.mlb.com/video/v1196679883/torbos-bautista-jacks-tworun-homer-to-left-field/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU</p>
<p>And then, like so many other times this season, it fell apart at the seams.</p>
<p>With Joe Biagini into the game, a lead-off double followed by a costly error to Russell Martin led to the Red Sox tying the game at three runs apiece with just one out and a runner on base. With Big Papi at the plate, John Gibbons called upon lefty Brett Cecil, who promptly gave up a go-ahead home run to Ortiz, from which the Jays would not recover.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Down by two run with one out and a runner on base in the bottom of the fifth, David Ortiz &#8211; who is having just an incredible final season &#8211; put a Brett Cecil pitch over the right field wall to give the Red Sox a 5-3 lead and the top play of the game by WPA (.283).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Jays rallied in the top of the eighth, when a one-out Kevin Pillar walk and subsequent double by Devon Travis brought Carerra to the plate, representing the go-ahead run with a man on third. Carerra couldn&#8217;t get the job done, flying out to the short stop for the bottom play of the game by WPA (-.121).</p>
<h3>Wake Me Up When September Ends</h3>
<p>As has been the trend far too often this month, the Jays failed to take advantage of scoring opportunities, going 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position and stranding 13 men on base, while the bullpen failed once again to hold the lead. One hopes that as the calendar flips over to October, the Jays&#8217; fortunes too will turn.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays will try once again to help themselves secure a wild card berth when J.A. Happ takes the mound in search of his twenty-first win of the season. He&#8217;ll face Eduardo Rodriguez in what is truly a must-win situation for the Jays.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: David Butler II &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Red Sox 11, Blue Jays 8; Big Papi Ends His Toronto Career With a Bang</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/11/recap-red-sox-11-blue-jays-8-big-papi-ends-his-toronto-career-with-a-bang/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Sep 2016 21:14:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6503</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This game was wild from the very first inning. Mookie Betts hit a double over Kevin Pillar&#8217;s head in centre, a play Pillar usually makes, which cashed in the games first run. However, it was far from the last one in a high scoring affair. Edwin Encarnacion answered in the bottom of the first inning [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This game was wild from the very first inning. Mookie Betts hit a double over Kevin Pillar&#8217;s head in centre, a play Pillar usually makes, which cashed in the games first run. However, it was far from the last one in a high scoring affair. Edwin Encarnacion answered in the bottom of the first inning with a home run, tying up the game at one. Then the Jays fell behind 4-1 after a Jackie Bradley Jr. three-run shot. Aaron Sanchez looked quite awful today. He wasn&#8217;t able to locate his pitches with any resemblance of effectiveness, specifically his sinker. The Jays continued to rebound despite the lacklustre pitching, as in the third inning, Troy Tulowitzki hit a monster grand slam which gave the Blue Jays the lead at 6-4. It did not last long, however, as Sanchez gave up two in the next inning and got the quick (but deserved) hook from John Gibbons.</p>
<p>There were a lot more home runs in this affair. Edwin hit another, Hanley Ramirez cranked a shot to the flight deck and Ortiz gave the deafening blow, launching a three run shot to right field. Good riddance, Big Papi. The Jays lost a series they needed to win. There isn&#8217;t much time left but the Jays have to quickly turn it around in September. Thus far, they are 2-7 in the month, which is not even close to good enough for a team in a TIGHT playoff race.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>It is tough to imagine that the top play of the game does not go to Troy Tulowitzki, who hit a grand slam in the third inning. In fact, the top play goes to Big Papi, who cranked a three-run homer off of Joaqiun Benoit in the sixth inning. The Red Sox were down by one run at the time and immediately pulled themselves out in front by two thanks to Ortiz. He attributed 0.367 WPA for the Red Sox which was clearly the defining play in the entire game. Ortiz also passed Jimmy Foxx on the all-time home run leaderboard; Big Papi hit his 535th home run to claim sole possession of #18 on the list. Next in his sights, is Yankee legend Micky Mantle with 536.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The worst play of the game goes to Devon Travis in the sixth inning, when he was facing submariner Brad Ziegler. The Jays were down two runs at that time and Ryan Goins was on first base with no outs. Travis grounded out weakly to shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who was able to turn the double play with ease. A promising inning turned quickly negative with one weak swing of the bat from the Jays DH on Sunday. The double play detracted 0.118 WPA from the Blue Jays&#8217; chance of winning.</p>
<h3>Tulowitzki!</h3>
<p>In the third inning, the Jays had the bases loaded against Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz. He walked Russell Martin which allowed Donaldson a free pass to home plate. Troy Tulowitzki stepped up and did not wait for Buchholz to get settled into the at-bat. On the first pitch, Tulowitzki launched an absolute bomb to deep left field clearing the bases and tallying four runs for the Jays. Although Tulowitzki hasn&#8217;t hit a grand slam since 2008, he has been tearing the cover off of the ball as of late. In the last month, he has hit just under .300; a marked improvement upon earlier in the season. On Sunday, Tulowitzki went 4-5 and has finally begun to play like the Tulo that Colorado Rockies fans witnessed for years. If the Jays plan on making a surge at the end of the season, Tulowitzki will certainly be in the middle of the action.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays are blessed with an incredibly easy portion of their schedule considering it is September and it feels like every game has been against a division rival recently. The Tampa Bay Rays are coming to the Rogers Centre beginning Monday. Then the Jays play the Angels and the Mariners afterwards; all of these series are winnable, and must be won if the Jays want to claim the division title.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 3, Red Sox 2; Happ And Upton Bust the Slump</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/10/recap-blue-jays-3-red-sox-2-happ-and-upton-bust-the-slump/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Sep 2016 20:24:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6472</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fresh off the most embarrassing game of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays tried to exact a measure of revenge against the first place Boston Red Sox. Unlike last night, both teams had serious trouble scoring runs on the day, with J.A. Happ and Eduardo Rodriguez both turning in nice games. Thankfully Happ was just [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fresh off the most embarrassing game of the season, the Toronto Blue Jays tried to exact a measure of revenge against the first place Boston Red Sox. Unlike last night, both teams had serious trouble scoring runs on the day, with J.A. Happ and Eduardo Rodriguez both turning in nice games. Thankfully Happ was just a touch better than Rodriguez, allowing the Jays to pull within one game of the Red Sox.</p>
<p>As for the offense, Melvin Upton Jr. tried his best to avoid the boo birds today by scorching a two run homer to left center field in the 2nd inning to give Toronto an early lead. The Jays would tack on another run in the third on a Jose Bautista bloop single that scored Josh Donaldson. The Jays couldn&#8217;t add on to the lead despite multiple opportunities with runners on and once again left the game in the hands of the pitching staff.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ was masterful today in an effort that the Blue Jays sorely needed. He cruised for the first five innings, using his pitch mix to keep the powerful Red Sox on their heels for most of the afternoon. Happ started the seventh after surrendering a solo shot to Dustin Pedroia and a deep fly ball to David Ortiz in the sixth and was greeted by opposite field singles from Hanley Ramirez and Aaron Hill. He gave way to Joaquin Benoit and departed with a final line of 6.0+ IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K on 95 pitches.</p>
<p>Benoit did his best to get out of the jam, though a bunch of balls hit to Jose Bautista out in right (a single and two flies, one of the sacrifice variety) did cash in Ramirez to cut the deficit to one. Jason Grilli got through the eighth with the only blemish coming on a Troy Tulowitzki error that allowed Ortiz to reach.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna came in to pitch the ninth and retired three consecutive batters after a leadoff walk, capping the game with a three pitch strikeout of Jackie Bradley Jr.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s top play came off the bat of Upton Jr., whose home run in the second cashed in a Russell Martin walk and produced a .182 WPA. Upton&#8217;s big hit definitely felt good coming off last night&#8217;s poor showing, so credit the veteran for bouncing back strong.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play of the game came from pinch hitter Brock Holt, whose fielder&#8217;s choice in the ninth inning produced a -.106 WPA. After Hanley Ramirez walked to start the inning, Holt had a chance to at least move the tying run into scoring position but failed to get the job done.</p>
<h3>20/20</h3>
<p>Upton&#8217;s dinger today was his 20th of the season, his highest total since 2012. He also stole his 26th base of the season, making 2016 his fourth career 20/20 campaign. Upton has taken on a fairly regular role since being acquired by the team before the trade deadline and has had a few big hits mixed in with some seemingly eternal slumps at the plate. If he can get back to the play that made him a hot commodity in San Diego it would be a boon to Toronto&#8217;s October aspirations. In a perfect world, today marked the start of his return to form.</p>
<h3>We&#8217;re Going Streaking</h3>
<p>Streaks both good and bad continued today for the Jays. On the positive end, Devon Travis has been on fire this series, racking up six hits in the first two games of the set. He&#8217;s been a godsend atop the lineup for a team whose big boppers have been scuffling.</p>
<p>On that note, Josh Donaldson has extended his hitless streak to 20 at bats now. The reigning MVP had a few healthy cuts and a hard hit ball today but can&#8217;t buy a hit right now. If the Jays want to stake their claim to the division crown they&#8217;ll need their best player to get things back to normal.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays will wrap up this massive series with Boston tomorrow afternoon when Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.92 ERA) takes on right hander Clay Buchholz (6-10, 4.99 ERA) with first pitch set for 1:07 ET. A win would draw the teams even atop the AL East, so tune in for another significant showdown.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Red Sox 13, Blue Jays 3; Jays Get Knocked Down, Don&#8217;t Get Up Again</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/09/recap-red-sox-13-blue-jays-3-jays-get-knocked-down-dont-get-up-again/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Sep 2016 02:33:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[After dropping two of three to the Rays and getting swept by the Yankees, the Jays could have used a good game against the Red Sox to get back into the thick of things in the American League East. They didn&#8217;t get that, as a bad start from Marco Estrada combined with a defense that seemed to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After dropping two of three to the Rays and getting swept by the Yankees, the Jays could have used a good game against the Red Sox to get back into the thick of things in the American League East. They didn&#8217;t get that, as a bad start from Marco Estrada combined with a defense that seemed to forget how to play the game of baseball put them in an early hole, and the Sox ran up the score against the bullpen to hand the Jays a 13-3 loss.</p>
<p>Estrada couldn&#8217;t find the plate with a radar for most of his abbreviated outing. Though he wasn&#8217;t helped by the umpires, he hurt himself much worse than the guys in blue did, consistently getting to three-ball counts against the Red Sox hitters. Estrada failed to get out of the third inning, throwing a whopping 76 pitches and getting just seven outs for his trouble, allowing four runs (three earned) on six hits and three walks, striking out two. Aaron Loup induced a double play to get out of the inning, and the Jays were probably glad for the expanded rosters, with six innings left and a full complement of rested pitchers in the bullpen after the off day. After Danny Barnes and Brett Cecil mostly held the Sox down, they blew the game open against Scott Feldman, hitting two home runs in the seventh off the Jays&#8217; long reliever and notching four runs to extend the lead to seven. After that, it didn&#8217;t much matter.</p>
<p>Rick Porcello, for his part, was excellent, throwing strikes and working ahead consistently for the majority of the evening. The Jays threatened on a few occasions, but the Red Sox offense mostly kept him well away from potential trouble, building a big lead that meant he could continue to pound the zone. His final line was seven innings, allowing six hits, one walk and two runs, striking out seven. Brad Ziegler and Koji Uehara finished the game without much fanfare.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Despite the final score, there was actually a brief stretch where the game was interesting, in the third inning. The Jays were down 4-0, and they loaded the bases for Devon Travis. He promptly hit a single that scored two of those runners. That cut the deficit in half, and increased the Jays&#8217; chances to win by 11.3 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After Josh Donaldson struck out in that same third inning, the Jays still had two runners on, one out, and a chance to continue to get runs. Encarnacion hit a hard ground ball to third base that was a tailor made double play ball, and the Sox went around the diamond to turn two and end the threat. This decreased the Jays&#8217; chances of winning by 10.4 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Upton Has A Night To Forget</h3>
<p>While Estrada wasn&#8217;t great, he wasn&#8217;t helped by a Jays defense that failed to make both routine and tricky plays in the short time he was in the game. Chief among the perpetrators was Melvin Upton Jr., acquired at least in part for his ability to be a better defender in the corner outfield positions. He dropped two fly balls in the third inning, and then had a ground ball go off his glove in the fourth that led to a batter getting an extra base.</p>
<h3>Estrada Struggles Again</h3>
<p>The Jays were hoping for a good start from Estrada, and didn&#8217;t get it on this night, as he laboured through just over two innings of work. It&#8217;s been a disappointing stretch for Estrada, who&#8217;s only gone over five innings once in his last six starts, and has allowed four or more earned runs four times in his last five starts as well. With the offense lacking of late, the Jays will need Estrada to be return to his early season form if they&#8217;re going to reclaim the division, but he&#8217;s running out of starts to recapture his magic.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays will look to have a better one tomorrow, in a game that will start at 1:05 PM ET. They will send J.A. Happ (17-4, 3.34 ERA) to the hill. The Red Sox will counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (2-6, 4.83). Happ last faced the Red Sox in April, throwing seven strong innings en route to a Jays win. The Jays faced Rodriguez in his second start this year in June, getting five runs and handing him a loss.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This One is Huge: Red Sox Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/09/this-one-is-huge-red-sox-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Sep 2016 17:23:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox September 9 &#8211; 11 Written by Eric Mercer and Dave Church There&#8217;s no other way to put it: This series is absolutely massive. Most fans are greatly anticipating the last series of the year against the Red Sox, but the team needs to get to a point where those games matter. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">September 9 &#8211; 11</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/ericmercer/">Eric Mercer</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/davidchurch/">Dave Church</a></em></p>
<p>There&#8217;s no other way to put it: This series is absolutely massive. Most fans are greatly anticipating the last series of the year against the Red Sox, but the team needs to get to a point where those games matter. Right now, the Jays are in the midst (or hopefully at the end) of a slide that has seen them lose their hold on first place in the division. Well, they want it back. They are one game back of the Red Sox and a series win 2-1 would bring things back all-square with 20 games to go! The season is quickly coming to a close and despite the fact that a win has meant the same thing all year long, these games feel like they carry more weight. The Jays have lined up their three best starters right now to go against the deadly Red Sox. The pitching has been extremely consistent most of the year, but the rotation has entered a rocky period in the last couple of weeks. It would unrealistic to expect the rotation to continue to produce at the breakneck pace they have shown so far this season. As a result, the Jays offense &#8211; which has struggled to score runs recently and been largely absent for long stretches in 2016 &#8211; needs to pick it up for the last 23 games and help carry the team to the postseason.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Friday, August 9th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada (8-7, 3.56 ERA) vs. Rick Porcello (19-3, 3.23 ERA)</strong></p>
<p>Estrada has had a tough stretch over the last four games. Prior to those games, Marco had not allowed more than three runs in a start since the middle of May. The ability to be that consistent is quite often overlooked. The troubling news, however, is that he has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four starts. That&#8217;s a complete turnaround from his form over the majority of the season. It is easy to believe Estrada&#8217;s back is the main contributor to his recent problems, though he has stated that it is feeling better than it was around the All-Star break. Either way, the Jays need Estrada to return to being Acestrada. Friday&#8217;s game is one of the bigger ones on the season thus far for the Blue Birds. They need to rattle of a win and put an end to the losing skid, and Estrada&#8217;s performance will go a long way to determining the outcome.</p>
<p>Porcello has been pretty impressive all season long, as I&#8217;m sure the 19 wins suggests. Despite the stat meaning very little, a number on either end of the spectrum usually indicates a pitchers quality. He also has a 3.23 ERA and a 3.8 percent walk rate. He&#8217;s not the groundballer he was when he came up, but he&#8217;s still very tough. Porcello&#8217;s primary pitches that will be on display Friday night are the sinker, fourseam, curve and change. His change is one of his better offerings, which is interesting as we will be able to see a direct comparison between him and Estrada who are both fastball / changeup pitchers (though Porcello throws more curveballs than Estrada). This season, batters are hitting just .168 against the change and whiffing 20.9 percent of the time when they swing. Comparatively, batters are hitting only .158 and whiffing a whopping 41.1 percent of the time on Estrada&#8217;s elite changeup.</p>
<h4>Saturday, August 10th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ (17-4, 3.34 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (2-6, 4.83 ERA)</strong></p>
<p>Similar to Estrada, Happ&#8217;s performance has diminished over the last four games. He has thrown 21 1/3 innings, allowing 14 earned runs and the opponents batting average is .291. He has not been sharp, but he can wash all of that away with a impressive start on Saturday. He&#8217;ll need locate his pitches on the edges in order to keep the Red Sox off the board. It would be rare for a pitcher to not go through a period of the season where they struggle and get hit pretty hard, but the best pitchers have the capability of limiting those poor stretches to only a couple of starts. The Jays really need Happ to turn the switch back on in this pivotal series.</p>
<p>On the surface, Rodriguez&#8217;s numbers lead you to believe that the Red Sox are throwing out a lefty who gets bashed around on a weekly basis. While it is true that he struggled mightily to begin the season, his last two months since returning from injury have been superb. Rodriguez is coming off his best start of the year (eight innings, one hit, zero runs, five strikeouts and two walks) and in his last nine turns has posted a 2.73 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 52 2/3 innings of work. This kid is only 23 and will be a tough test for the Jays, despite their success against lefty starters.</p>
<h4>Sunday, August 11th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 2.92 ERA) vs. Clay Buchholz (6-10, 4.99 ERA)</strong></p>
<p>The Blue Jays shuffled their rotation to make sure that Aaron Sanchez got a start against the Red Sox at home. They bumped R.A. Dickey, who in all fairness, can be quite volatile by nature with the knuckleball and at this time in the year, consistency comes with a high value. Additionally, if you can get your team&#8217;s best pitcher pitching more often, you have to jump on the opportunity. Sanchez has been rock solid the last two times out and will need to be his usual groundball-machine self against the Red Sox. Boston has the capabilities of cranking the ball into the seats, and Rogers Centre traditionally helps those types of clubs, but Sanchez does a very good job of keeping the ball out of the air. Sanchez will need to keep the ball low and moving downward and the allow the tremendous infield defense of the Jays to do their job. He has done very well against Boston this year, allowing just four earned runs in 13 1/3 innings of work, and the Jays are going to need more of the same.</p>
<p>Clay Buchholz has been back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation all season long which isn&#8217;t traditionally a great sign for a pitcher. He is back in the rotation now where he has found little success. Buchholz showcases three different fastballs, curveball and changeup. He throws a fourseam (23%), cutter (22%), sinker (17%), curveball (19%) and the changeup (15%); and unfortunately none of them have been very good this year. His cutter and change have been average-to-above average; opponents have hit .222 and .247 respectively. In contrast, his curve has been absolutely hammered. Batters have feasted on it, averaging a hit 37.5% of the time when they swing and only whiffing 8.6%. Perhaps Buchholz should take a page out of Marco Estrada&#8217;s book, who is a very successful fastball / changeup pitcher. Despite all his struggles, he has absolutely shut down the Jays this year, allowing no runs in 7 2/3 innings on one start and one relief appearance. The Jays will need to figure him out fast if they want to win this game.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The Jays called up relievers Aaron Loup and Bo Schultz during the series against the Yankees, and have said those will be the final callups for September, barring injury.</p>
<p>The Red Sox have had a handful of recent additions to their roster, with the conclusion of Pawtucket&#8217;s season on the 5th. Catcher Christian Vazquez and pitchers Noe Ramirez and Heath Hembree joined the team, having all spent time with the big club this year. Reliever Koji Uehara also returned from the disabled list, adding depth to the back-end of Boston&#8217;s bullpen.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Cash &#8216;Em In</strong></p>
<p>The Jays were 6 for 28 with runners in scoring position against the Yankees, leaving a startling 25 runners on base during their stay in the Bronx. Those stranded runners loomed large with three close losses, and a total of nine runs scored during the series. With Boston&#8217;s league leading offense, and some potentially nice matchups on the mound, they can&#8217;t afford to waste that many opportunities again.</p>
<p><strong>Ruin Papi&#8217;s Farewell Tour</strong></p>
<p>Even in a deep Red Sox lineup, David Ortiz has continued to be a standout hitter. He has tortured a lot of teams through his career, and he has certainly enjoyed facing the Jays this season, with an OPS of 1.156 in 36 at-bats. Brett Cecil might get some key matchups against him in the late innings, as Ortiz is 6 for 30 against Cecil in his career, with only two doubles, one home run, and three RBI to his name against the Jays&#8217; best lefty pitcher. Depending on how tightly Gibbons wants to play the matchups, Aaron Loup and Matt Dermody might draw some appearances against Big Papi as well.</p>
<p><strong>Grilli Gets Good</strong></p>
<p>Jason Grilli has been a revelation since coming to Toronto, fortifying a bullpen that was in desperate need of reinforcing when the Jays acquired him for basically nothing from the Atlanta Braves. His 2.88 ERA and 50 strikeouts in 34.1 innings has helped bridge the gap between a solid starting staff and closer Roberto Osuna. After going through almost the entire month of August without allowing a run, Grilli has hit a bad stretch at an unfortunate time, allowing six runs over his last three outings. As the Jays hit a crucial stretch of games against A.L. East opponents, and with the offense sputtering, they&#8217;ll need Grilli to be better than he has been recently.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Boston Red Sox</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Dustin Pedroia &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Xander Bogaerts &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center"> Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">David Ortiz &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center"> Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Mookie Betts &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Hanley Ramirez &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Sandy Leon &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Brock Holt &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Yoan Moncada &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jackie Bradley Jr. &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>When looking at the Jays&#8217; schedule initially, this would have been marked as a potentially crucial series, and that&#8217;s exactly how it turned out. The Red Sox are much like the 2015 Blue Jays: a talented team with a deep lineup but an unpredictable pitching staff. With some potentially favorable matchups, the Jays are well positioned to swing the balance in the American League East, but as we emphasized throughout this preview, they&#8217;ll need to be better than they have been recently. They lost five of their last six to teams looking up at them in the division, which might make fans a little queasy. While taking the series would be ideal, losing the series doesn&#8217;t mean the end of the season for the Jays, it just makes their path to the playoffs a little more uncertain.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>A Primer for Playoff Scoreboard Watching in 2016</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/09/a-primer-for-playoff-scoreboard-watching-in-2016/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/09/a-primer-for-playoff-scoreboard-watching-in-2016/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Aug 2016 11:41:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5301</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many fans have to fight the urge to watch the out of town scoreboard in the midst of a close race, especially earlier in the season. Baseball season is long enough that trying to keep track of rival scores often turns out to be more trouble than it’s worth, but as the calendar turns and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Many fans have to fight the urge to watch the out of town scoreboard in the midst of a close race, especially earlier in the season. Baseball season is long enough that trying to keep track of rival scores often turns out to be more trouble than it’s worth, but as the calendar turns and the standings take shape it becomes harder and harder to resist. As it stands, the Blue Jays are 64-49 which means there are 49 games left to go. We’re quickly approaching the time of year when scoreboard gazing is perfectly acceptable if we aren’t there just yet.</p>
<p>Last year the Blue Jays made up a large deficit after the trade deadline because they played unbelievable baseball and happened to face the team they were chasing, the New York Yankees, 13 times. There’s a much less clear path to the 2016 AL East title with the Blue Jays battling the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox.</p>
<p>The 2015 formula was simple; beat the Yankees. There’s some added variables in the mix this season so it seems worthwhile to take a look at the remaining schedules for each team to see how they stack up. Obviously there’s still a lot of balls in the air as it pertains to injuries and hot and cold streaks but we can still get a general sense of what to expect and what non-Toronto teams Blue Jays’ fans will have to root for down the stretch.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays are in a much better spot than they were last year but are a little bit behind the eight ball in the sense that they have fewer games left than both Boston and Baltimore. If the race doesn’t open up soon the Jays could be in for some stressful nights in front of the TV.</p>
<p>On the positive side, the Blue Jays do have the easiest remaining schedule by several measures; they have the lowest remaining opponent’s winning percentage (as of Monday night) and the fewest series remaining against teams who have a .550 winning percentage or better.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s a look at each team&#8217;s remaining series broken down by opponent&#8217;s winning percentage:</p>
<p>*Winning percentages are accurate as of Sunday 8/7</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/ALEastRemainingSeries.jpg"><img class="  wp-image-5305 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/ALEastRemainingSeries.jpg" alt="ALEastRemainingSeries" width="321" height="135" /></a><br />
It should be noted that one such series for the Red Sox is a single makeup game against the Cleveland Indians but Boston still has some tough sledding ahead regardless. They’ll have the opportunity to beat up on teams like Arizona and San Diego but truly have a schedule of extremes; lots of dregs but plenty of elite competition.</p>
<p>Baltimore has a pretty balanced slate but has three series against some serious contenders. There will be some difficult nights for the Orioles ahead but they also have the benefit of some well-timed matchups with league cellar dwellers.</p>
<p>*Games Remaining totals are accurate through Monday 8/8</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/ALEastSchedule.jpg"><img class="  wp-image-5302 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/ALEastSchedule.jpg" alt="ALEastSchedule" width="631" height="399" /></a></p>
<h3>The Division</h3>
<p>I highlighted all of the divisional matchups remaining to illustrate how pivotal these AL East games will be. The Jays don’t have a huge chunk of games left against the team they’re chasing a la 2015 but they will have six games to cut into the Orioles’ lead should they need them. Baltimore and Boston play each other nine times down the stretch so there’s still plenty of jockeying left to do. The Blue Jays will look to put the hurt on Tampa and New York, but will quickly become cheerleaders as the division bottom feeders have major opportunities to play spoiler in the season’s final weeks.</p>
<h3>They’re Grrrreat:</h3>
<p>The Red Sox and Orioles both have a series in Comerica Park against the currently surging Tigers. The Jays are probably thankful that they’re done with Detroit for the year, as the Tigers have put a major dent into Cleveland’s lead as of late. Detroit is now a different team with playoff aspirations of their own so don’t expect them to lay down for Boston or Baltimore. Toronto fans should also be pulling for Oakland and Arizona, though their chances of success seem much smaller.</p>
<h3>Senior Circuit Support</h3>
<p>While it seems foolish to invest in the idea of the Diamondbacks taking multiple wins from their sets against AL East teams, the Orioles face two of the NL’s premier teams in San Francisco and Washington. Those seven games could be pivotal in determining Baltimore’s fate. Their home and home set with the Nationals comes around the same time as Toronto’s home dates with Minnesota and the Angels. A bad stretch against Bryce Harper’s crew could allow the Jays to blow the doors off this race.</p>
<h3>The Final Week</h3>
<p>Barring a crazy hot streak or prolonged slump, the Blue Jays will have the opportunity to affect the race firsthand in the final week of the season. The Jays will welcome Baltimore to the Rogers Center before heading to Fenway for the final three games of the season. If these three teams continue to remain bunched up, Toronto will have the ability to singlehandedly rearrange the postseason picture.</p>
<p>So while it may be a little too early to obsessively refresh the out of town scoreboard, it doesn’t hurt to keep the upcoming schedule in mind. This is all on paper and subject to change but it’s looking like the Jays caught some favorable breaks from the schedule makers. Whether or not they can take advantage of it remains to be seen.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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