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		<title>Surprising Stats from the 2018 Blue Jays Season</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/10/04/surprising-stats-from-the-2018-blue-jays-season/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Oct 2018 14:13:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16816</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays’ 2018 season has come to an end. It was a difficult summer for baseball fans in Toronto, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t some enjoyable moments at the Rogers Centre this season. Would it have been a more enjoyable ride with Vald Guerrero Jr. along for the trip? Probably, but that’s a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays’ 2018 season has come to an end. It was a difficult summer for baseball fans in Toronto, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t some enjoyable moments at the Rogers Centre this season. Would it have been a more enjoyable ride with Vald Guerrero Jr. along for the trip? Probably, but that’s a topic for another day. With another year in the books, here are some of the most surprising statistics from another season of Blue Jays baseball.</p>
<h4><strong>Too Many Pop Ups</strong></h4>
<p>This season, the Blue Jays led the major leagues in hitting pop ups with a 12.2 percent infield fly ball rate. Sometimes it felt like Yangervis Solarte was responsible for all of them. He wasn’t, but he was responsible for a lot of them. His 19.2 percent infield fly ball rate was tied with Mike Moustakas for the highest among all qualified hitters. Kevin Pillar wasn’t far behind at 17.7 percent – good for fifth highest.</p>
<p>Because pop ups are easily turned into outs at the major league level, they are the least desirable batted ball outcome a hitter can produce. This high level of infield fly balls could also help explain why the Jays ranked so low in terms of batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The Blue Jays’ team BABIP of .286 was the fourth lowest in the major leagues.</p>
<p>While BABIP is something that typically should regress to the mean (league average was .296), the Jays will need to hit fewer infield flies if they want to see some positive regression. And speaking of low BABIP…</p>
<h4><strong>A Whole Lotta Shifts</strong></h4>
<p>The Blue Jays emerged as one of the most likely teams to be shifted on this season &#8211; with 26.2 percent of pitches thrown against them coming with the opposition’s infielders playing in an exaggerated defensive shift. Only the Angels and Rangers’ hitters saw more defensive shifts. What’s surprising about this is that so many of the Blue Jays’ best hitters were either right-handed or switch hitters &#8211; who are more difficult to shift against since the first basemen still needs to stay on the left side of the infield to cover first.</p>
<p>Luckily for the Jays, the damage was somewhat mitigated. The team’s batting average against the shift was .253 – sixth highest in the major leagues.</p>
<h4><strong>Marco Estrada Led the Team in Games Started…and ERA</strong></h4>
<p>With 28 games started, Marco Estrada took the ball more than any other Blue Jays’ starter this season. Unfortunately, his 5.64 ERA was the highest of any Blue Jays’ pitcher that remained with the team all season long. While Estrada struggled to generate the results that made him one of the Jays’ best pitchers in 2015 and 2016, he was certainly not alone. Surprisingly, the starting rotation was a perceived to be an area of strength heading into the season and ended up being a glaring weakness. Marcus Stroman (5.43), Aaron Sanchez (4.89), Jaime Garcia (6.16) and Sam Gaviglio (5.43) all struggled to limit runs. This led to a starter’s ERA of 5.14, third highest in the major leagues. Only the Orioles and Rangers had higher ERAs from their starting pitchers.</p>
<p>With J.A. Happ gone and Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez still struggling with injuries, the offseason will be an interesting one. Don’t be surprised if the Jays add a starting pitcher or two via trade or free agency.</p>
<h4><strong>No Steals</strong></h4>
<p>Remember the 2015 team that mashed homers and refused to play small ball? Some even (I believe wrongly) suggested this was the reason for their defeat at the hands of the Kansas City Royals. That 2015 Blue Jays’ team were also eleventh in baseball with 88 stolen bases. Since 2015, no Blue Jays’ team has managed to swipe more than 54 bags.</p>
<p>This year’s team, which was younger and more athletic than the 2016 and 2017 teams, still only managed to steal 47 bases – the third lowest total in all of baseball. And it’s not because they’re getting caught a lot. The Blue Jays rate of 0.48 stolen base attempts per game was the fourth lowest in the majors &#8211; even with the influx speed that came in the form of Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernandez, and Dwight Smith Jr. In an era where baseball is moving away from utilizing the stolen base, the Jays still appear to be near the very bottom of the league when it comes to swiping bags. Is that why Ross Atkins wanted to get rid of John Gibbons? Nah. But why get younger and more athletic if you aren’t gonna use it?</p>
<h4><strong>…But Danny Jansen is a Speedster</strong></h4>
<p>Despite the lack of team stolen bases, the Blue Jays do appear to be more fleet of foot than in years past. It might not surprise anyone that Gurriel Jr., Grichuk, or Dwight Smith Jr. are some of the Jays’ fastest players. It probably <em>will</em> surprise you to know that catcher Danny Jansen is. Jansen’s sprint speed of 27.9 feet per second was sixth best on the team and fourth in all of baseball among catchers (with at least 10 opportunities). Ah, to be 23.</p>
<p>On the other end of the spectrum, Kendrys Morales was the second slowest designated hitter in the league with a sprint speed of 23.5 feet per second &#8211; higher than only the now retired Victor Martinez and a full second behind the DH directly ahead of him in the rankings…Edwin Encarnacion. Will we ever stop comparing them!?! According to Statcast, Morales was the sixth slowest player in baseball in 2018</p>
<h4><strong>Rogers Centre Was A Pitcher’s Park</strong></h4>
<p>Earlier this year, I mentioned that the Rogers Centre hasn’t lived up to its reputation as a <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/01/is-the-rogers-centre-really-a-hitter-friendly-ballpark/">hitter friendly ballpark in recent seasons</a>. The Rog Mahal as some more clever than me have lovingly dubbed it, graded out as a bottom third run scoring environment in both 2015 and 2017.</p>
<p>This trend continued in 2018, when the Rogers Centre was only the 20<sup>th</sup> best run-scoring environment in baseball according to ESPN’s park factors. Baseball Prospectus, which breaks down its park factors by batter handedness, produced similar numbers – grading the Dome as the 23<sup>rd</sup> best park for left-handed hitters, and 20<sup>th</sup> for righties.</p>
<p>The Rogers Centre still grades out as a good place to hit home runs – but for some reason, after serving as a hitter’s paradise for many years, overall hits and run scoring have beeen down at the park in three of the last four seasons, including in 2018. Speaking of the Rogers Centre…</p>
<h4><strong>Attendance was Still Pretty Good</strong></h4>
<p>The Blue Jays drew more fans than any losing team other than the San Francisco Giants. And the Giants have garlic fries. (I’ve heard that AT&amp;T Park is a bit nicer than the Rogers Centre, too) Despite a second non-competitive season in a row, the Jays still ranked fifth in the American League (thirteenth in the majors) in total attendance –ahead of playoff contenders in Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Arizona and the major market New York Mets and Texas Rangers. The Jays also ranked a respectable thirteenth in average attendance. All and all, 2,325,281 fans still made it down to the Rogers Centre this season.</p>
<p>Does this make it frustrating when you hear things about the Blue Jays’ front office or corporate ownership making decisions to save money or not re-invest in the team? It sure does. Is there anything fans can do to change this? It sure doesn’t seem like it.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Kim Klement USA TODAY SPORTS</em></p>
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		<title>History Says There&#8217;s Still a Chance Troy Tulowitzki Can Be a Productive Player</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/04/history-says-theres-still-a-chance-troy-tulowitzki-can-be-a-productive-player/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Sep 2018 14:38:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16673</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Two weekends ago, Troy Tulowitzki met with members of the media and confirmed that he would not play for the remainder of the 2018 season. During the same media availability, he told reporters that he plans to be ready for spring training next season. And that he expects to play shortstop everyday for the Blue [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two weekends ago, Troy Tulowitzki met with members of the media and confirmed that he would not play for the remainder of the 2018 season. During the same <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/tulowitzki-confident-will-jays-still-see-solution-short/">media availability</a>, he told reporters that he plans to be ready for spring training next season. And that he expects to play shortstop everyday for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Tulo’s plans for 2019 were met with plenty of skepticism and criticism from all corners. Can a 34-year-old shortstop really come back after a year and a half absence and provide more value to the Blue Jays than Aledmys Diaz, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and potentially Bo Bichette? Would a Blue Jays’ front office focused on a youth movement even want him to?</p>
<p>At Fangraphs, Jay Jaffe <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-season-without-troy-tulowitzki/">did some research </a>that painted a pretty bleak picture of over-30 shortstops returning to action after missing a year to injury. There aren’t a lot of success stories to be found &#8211; Tony Fernandez, who produced a 2 fWAR season after missing his age-34 season being the most valuable.</p>
<p>After seeing Tulo struggle through 66 games in 2017 before he was carried off the field with an ankle injury, it doesn’t feel like Tulowitzki is capable of returning to form. But unlike the other shortstops on Jaffe’s list, Tulowitzki is coming from a much higher base level of talent, even if that feels like another lifetime ago. As Jaffe acknowledges, Tulo was the most valuable shortstop in the game between 2009 and 2014.</p>
<p>Since 1950, only nine shortstops have produced at least five seasons of five Wins Above Replacement or better before they turned 34. Tulowitzki is one of them. His combination of offensive and defensive abilities allowed him to post a 5.5 bWAR season as recently as 2014. And 3.4 Wins as recently as 2016, his last full(ish) season. If you lower the bar to three seasons over five WAR, the list expands to sixteen players. For reference, Aledmys Diaz, has been worth 0.9 WAR (which puts him on a pace for about 1.3 bWAR) this season as Tulo’s primary replacement. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been worth 0.2.</p>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>5+ WAR Shorstops 1950-Present</th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Name</td>
<td>Yrs</td>
<td>From</td>
<td>To</td>
<td>Age</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>1983</td>
<td>1991</td>
<td>22-30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alex Rodriguez</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>1996</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>20-27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Barry Larkin</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>1988</td>
<td>1998</td>
<td>24-34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ozzie Smith</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>1980</td>
<td>1989</td>
<td>25-34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Troy Tulowitzki</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>2007</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>22-29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nomar Garciaparra</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>1997</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>23-29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alan Trammell</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>1983</td>
<td>1990</td>
<td>25-32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jim Fregosi</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1964</td>
<td>1970</td>
<td>22-28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ernie Banks</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1955</td>
<td>1960</td>
<td>24-29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derek Jeter</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1998</td>
<td>2006</td>
<td>24-32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Robin Yount</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1978</td>
<td>1983</td>
<td>22-27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bert Campaneris</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>1968</td>
<td>1974</td>
<td>26-32</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Francisco Lindor</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>2018</td>
<td>22-24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hanley Ramirez</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2008</td>
<td>2013</td>
<td>24-29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Miguel Tejada</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2005</td>
<td>28-31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Al Dark</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1950</td>
<td>1952</td>
<td>28-30</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Source: Baseball-Reference.com</strong></p>
<p>This group of players has fared better as they age into their mid-30s. Of the sixteen shortstops that produced at least three seasons of five WAR before age-34, five of them produced seasons of over 3 WAR at age 34 or later. Three more – Ernie Banks, Alan Trammel and Alex Rodriguez did so at different positions (which, maybe Tulo would consider eventually?)</p>
<table class="tableizer-table">
<thead>
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow">
<th>Elite Shortstops After Age 33</th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Name</td>
<td>Yrs</td>
<td>From</td>
<td>To</td>
<td>Age</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ozzie Smith</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1989</td>
<td>1993</td>
<td>34-38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Luis Aparicio</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1968</td>
<td>1970</td>
<td>34-36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Pee Wee Reese</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1953</td>
<td>1955</td>
<td>34-36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Barry Larkin</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1998</td>
<td>1999</td>
<td>34-35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cal Ripken Jr.</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1995</td>
<td>1996</td>
<td>34-35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bert Campaneris</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1976</td>
<td>1977</td>
<td>34-35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Phil Rizzuto</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1952</td>
<td>1953</td>
<td>34-35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Eddie Joost</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1951</td>
<td>1952</td>
<td>35-36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jimmy Rollins</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>2014</td>
<td>35-35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Derek Jeter</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>2009</td>
<td>35-35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Omar Vizquel</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>2004</td>
<td>37-37</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dave Concepcion</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1982</td>
<td>1982</td>
<td>34-34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mark Belanger</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1978</td>
<td>1978</td>
<td>34-34</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Maury Wills</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1969</td>
<td>1969</td>
<td>36-36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Al Dark</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1957</td>
<td>1957</td>
<td>35-35</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Source: Baseball-Reference.com</strong></p>
<p>None of these players missed a full year like Tulowitzki, let alone a year and a half.  Many of the elite shortstops comparable to Tulo also played in different eras, ones without increased velocity, defensive shifts, or the high bar for replacement level thanks to the emergence of superstars like Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa. On top of all this, his injury-shortened 2017 performance was his worst to date.</p>
<p>In addition to Tulowitzki’s on-field abilities, he has been praised by players and coaches for his intangibles and leadership skills. But if the front office’s handling of the Josh Donaldson injury situation tells us anything, the Jays don’t seem particularly interested in letting veterans play out the string and may not value Tulo’s off-field contributions to the team more than they value giving a young player like Gurriel Jr. or Bichette an opportunity.</p>
<p>While age waits for no man, players as talented as Tulo have the benefit of regressing from a much higher peak, and there are examples of players remaining productive into their mid and late 30s. Eight players with similar peaks of performance were able to produce three Win seasons at age-34 or later and four players were able to do it more than once. As bleak as the Tulo situation may be, ten months ago we were making these types of arguments to justify re-signing Josh Donaldson (who is one year younger than Tulo) to a lengthy extension. And Jose Bautista a year before that.</p>
<p>This isn’t to say that Tulowitzki is likely rebound, only that there is some historical precedent for a player as talented as Tulo providing strong value into his mid-30s. Even at shortstop. Given his injury history, recent performance, and a long layoff, there is a lot working against the Blue Jays&#8217; veteran shortstop. Call it more of a possibility or a puncher’s chance than the likely outcome. But given how much the Blue Jays owe the shortstop, it might be in their best interest to find out before deciding to cut him lose for nothing even if they&#8217;re inclined to give the team’s younger players first crack at the job. Players as talented as Troy Tulowitzki don’t come along very often. Even a diminished Tulo could be better than a fully capable younger player.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Josh Donaldson is Gone</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/01/donaldson-traded-blank/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/01/donaldson-traded-blank/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Sep 2018 21:18:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16687</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday night, Josh Donaldson’s time in Toronto came to an end in a way that no one had hoped or imagined it would. Donaldson, the 2015 American League MVP was traded to Cleveland for a player to be named later ahead of the August 31 waiver trade deadline. The Jays will be absorbing $2.7 of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday night, Josh Donaldson’s time in Toronto came to an end in a way that no one had hoped or imagined it would. Donaldson, the 2015 American League MVP was traded to Cleveland for a player to be named later ahead of the August 31 waiver trade deadline. The Jays will be absorbing $2.7 of the $3,7 million left on Donaldson’s contract.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Breaking: Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson has been traded to the Cleveland Indians, according to a report by Yahoo Sports and confirmed by <a href="https://twitter.com/jcrasnick?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jcrasnick</a>. <a href="https://t.co/9nJ2fUtvz4">pic.twitter.com/9nJ2fUtvz4</a></p>
<p>&mdash; SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) <a href="https://twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/1035702081754222592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 1, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Because Donaldson was traded before September 1<sup>st</sup>, he will be eligible to play in the playoffs. Donaldson has been on the disabled list since May 28 battling calf problems that have been rumored to be worse than initially suggested.</p>
<p>In addition to the injury issues, there have been <a href="https://t.co/dK5426nLem">reports</a> in recent days that Donaldson and the team had disagreements on how to treat and rehabilitate his injured calf &#8211; and that he was frustrated with the front office’s approach to extending his contract.</p>
<p>During his four seasons in Toronto, Donaldson put up some of the greatest single season performances in team history. And despite his struggles to remain on the field, the 33-year-old posted a slash line of .270/.385/.559 while battling calf injuries last season.</p>
<p>Donaldson’s stellar performance on the field wasn’t the only reason he will be loved and remembered by Blue Jay fans.</p>
<p>“This isn’t the try league, it’s the get it done league”. “We like our team, Barry.” Calling himself “king of the fucking jungle”. These we’re just some of Donaldson’s many memorable sound bites. He often got under the skin of opposing teams too &#8211; famously yelling <a href="https://imgur.com/gallery/j1ozLd1/comment/418432842">obscenities</a> at the Angels’ bench in 2015, taunting the Minnesota Twins after hitting a home run in 2016, or calling Yordano Ventura “good hitting”. And of course, ending the 2016 ALDS when he scored from second on a Rougned Odor throwing error, likely the most memorable Blue Jays’ playoff moment that didn’t involve a walk-off home run in the last 25 years.</p>
<p>While a player to be later named later feels like an underwhelming return for someone as talented (albeit injured) as Donaldson, this doesn’t mean that the player will have no value. The player could be on Cleveland’s 40-man roster, or could change depending on Donaldson’s ability to play in major league games this September.</p>
<p>With Donaldson set to hit free agency this winter, the Blue Jays decided that trading their third baseman now was more advantageous than keeping him through the end of the season and losing him for nothing or, extending him a qualifying offer.</p>
<p>I can understand the team’s thinking with moving Donaldson, but am a bit confused as to why they decided this was their best course of action. With his injury issues, Donaldson’s value has never been lower and it’s quite possible that the compensatory pick that they would receive if Donaldson were to reject a qualifying offer is more valuable than the player they receive from Cleveland.</p>
<p>In a situation where Donaldson were to accept a qualifying offer and try to rebuild his value in Toronto next season, the Jays could trade him for a better return at next year’s deadline, or keep him through the season if they find themselves in contention earlier than planned. If he remains injured or ineffective, they are only on the hook for one season.</p>
<p>Would Donaldson’s presence create more of a roster crunch on the 2019 team? Absolutely, but so does Kendrys Morales and Justin Smoak’s. Neither were traded at 10 cents on the dollar. And those players have a far lower ceiling than a healthy Donaldson. Despite the Blue Jays’ best prospect playing the same position as Donaldson, the front office’s (maddening) decision to manipulate Vlad Jr.’s service time suggest that he might not be with the major league team at the beginning of next season. And given some of Donaldson’s recent injuries, finding a workable solution that involves either Vlad Jr. or J.D. playing some first base or designated hitter doesn’t feel entirely unreasonable.</p>
<p>Given where the Jays will be next season (likely in some stage trying to re-tool around Guerrero and the next wave of prospects), offering Donaldson a qualifying offer would have seemed like the most effective use of (around) 18 million dollars on next year’s payroll. Donaldson could either add value to the 2019 team or return more value being traded sometime next season. It feels like a longtime ago, but he isn’t even a year removed from a 5.1 WAR season (in 113 games). The Jays are unlikely to be able to sign a player of that calibre (to a one year contract) on the open market this offseason. And if he fails to remain healthy, there is no long-term financial commitment.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays’ front office however did not see it that way. Perhaps more information will come out regarding the relationship between them and Donaldson — information that will shed light on why this went in the direction that it did.</p>
<p>Regardless of the transactional element of the situation, all would agree that yesterday’s trade was a difficult way to part with a Blue Jay great that was so instrumental in the team’s first competitive window in over 20 years. Whatever we think of this move, we should remember just how great Donaldson was during his time in Toronto and just how important he was to Blue Jays’ history.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Going Streaking: The Hottest and Coldest Blue Jays of 2018</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/16/gone-streaking-the-hottest-and-coldest-blue-jays-of-2018/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/16/gone-streaking-the-hottest-and-coldest-blue-jays-of-2018/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Aug 2018 14:26:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16575</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s been a tough year for Blue Jays’ fans. It has also been a turbulent one. In addition to the team’s struggles, many of the Jays’ chief contributors have been incredibly streaky in their performances. At the end of April, when Yangervis Solarte was off to his hot start, he had instantly ingratiated himself and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s been a tough year for Blue Jays’ fans. It has also been a turbulent one. In addition to the team’s struggles, many of the Jays’ chief contributors have been incredibly streaky in their performances.</p>
<p>At the end of April, when Yangervis Solarte was off to his hot start, he had instantly ingratiated himself and become a fan favorite – a player whose joy and passion for the game was contagious. Fans were also wondering if Randal Grichuk would ever be able hit above .200 in the major leagues again.</p>
<p>Three and a half months later, the exact opposite looks to be true. A struggling Solarte (now on the disabled list) is being maligned for his lack of effort running out groundballs (you gotta save your energy for those home run cellys), while Randal Grichuk has been taking away home runs and absolutely destroyed the ball for the month of June. And that was just the beginning of the streakiness.</p>
<p><strong>Blue Jay Hot Streaks</strong></p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="111"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="114"><strong>Dates</strong></td>
<td width="107"><strong>Slash Line</strong></td>
<td width="70"><strong>wRC+*</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Yangervis Solarte</td>
<td width="114">March 29 – May 8</td>
<td width="107">.264/.347/.519</td>
<td width="70">132</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Kendrys Morales</td>
<td width="114">June 1 – July 31</td>
<td width="107">.338/.459/.574</td>
<td width="70">178</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Devon Travis</td>
<td width="114">May 22 – June 27</td>
<td width="107">.288/.338/.470</td>
<td width="70">118</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Randal Grichuk</td>
<td width="114">June 1 – July 1</td>
<td width="107">.284/.330/.625</td>
<td width="70">155</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Lourdes Gurriel Jr.</td>
<td width="114">July 2 – July 29</td>
<td width="107">.423/.438/.648</td>
<td width="70">199</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Kevin Pillar</td>
<td width="114">March 29 – April 30</td>
<td width="107">.305/.351/.552</td>
<td width="70">142</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Blue Jay Cold Streaks</strong></p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="111"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="114"><strong>Dates</strong></td>
<td width="107"><strong>Slash Line</strong></td>
<td width="70"><strong>wRC+</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Yangervis Solarte</td>
<td width="114">July 1 – August 11</td>
<td width="107">.175/.219/.250</td>
<td width="70">24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Kendrys Morales</td>
<td width="114">March 29 – May 17</td>
<td width="107">.146/.239/.260</td>
<td width="70">28</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Devon Travis</td>
<td width="114">March 30 – April 30</td>
<td width="107">.148/.212/.246</td>
<td width="70">23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Randal Grichuk</td>
<td width="114">March 29 – April 29</td>
<td width="107">.106/.208/.227</td>
<td width="70">19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Lourdes Gurriel Jr.</td>
<td width="114">April 20 – May 11</td>
<td width="107">.206/.229/.309</td>
<td width="70">41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="111">Kevin Pillar</td>
<td width="114">May 1 – June 5</td>
<td width="107">.220/.258/.331</td>
<td width="70">55</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Not entirely unsurprisingly, some of the hottest players in the Jays’ lineup this season have also been some of the coldest at other points.</p>
<p>Kendrys Morales and Randal Grichuk have seen months where they were each respectively one of the absolute best and absolute worst hitters in baseball. Devon Travis was sent to the minor leagues (although that did have a little bit to do with a roster crunch) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. looked like a quad-A player during his first call up and breakout star in his second.</p>
<p>Randal Grichuk’s abysmal start to the season may have had something to do with a minor spring training ribcage injury that could have lingered. Admittedly, the ribcage is an entirely different injury than the knee problem that caused him to miss the entire month of May, but it’s not impossible that lingering affects may have caused the outfielder problems.</p>
<p>Since returning, Grichuk has cut his strikeout rate slightly (24.3 percent versus a 28.9 career rate), which suggests he can make some offensive gains, but given the sample size, and that his contact, swing and walk rates are consistent with his career norms, it’s fairly likely his strikeout rate will creep back up closer to 30 percent. Despite the huge fluctuations for months at a time, it’s likely he’s ultimately the same hitter – a low on-base, high slugging performer that can be around league average moving forward.</p>
<p>At this point in time we should be entirely unsurprised by these kinds of swings in Kevin Pillar’s offensive production. When he’s barreling , he can look great but given his inability to walk, it’s difficult for him to sustain.</p>
<p>Morales struggled (.227/.286/.381) through the first month of the 2017 as well, but it was neither as long or as terrible as the slump he endured to begin this season. Interestingly, after two seasons where the switch-hitting Morales posted stronger numbers as a right-handed hitter, he appears to be bucking the trend, posting a .792 OPS as a left-handed hitter against just .599 as a righty. Despite the change, he seems to be right about where he was last year – a hitter with some power, but one that can’t do much else.</p>
<p>Health has always been a question for the club&#8217;s diminutive second baseman, so this season the Blue Jays attempted to keep him healthy by limiting his playing time – giving Travis an off-day for every two consecutive games that he played. Travis appeared to be unable to get his timing with the frequent days off and has fared better since returning to consistent playing time.</p>
<p>While Gurriel’s hot streak is undoubtedly on the shorter side of things, the promise lies in him being young enough (24) that he can improve. Because if he can’t, his plate discipline and a regression on his batting average on balls in play is likely going to prevent him from being a strong hitter. He&#8217;d be someone who is more likely to struggle to stay in the big leagues than hit .300 let alone .400.</p>
<p>Solarte’s production has dropped of precipitously since a hot first month to start to the season. Solarte was an above average player from 2014-16 but has seen his production decline in each of the last two seasons. He’s seen his slugging percentage drop over 100 points (.397) and his on-base percentage drop 60 points (.287) since the beginning of May.</p>
<p>The point here, while not a secret, is that no player is as good as they look when they’re hot, or as bad as they look when they’re cold. With the wild ups and downs that many of the Blue Jays’ hitters have endured this season, it’s best to look at their cumulative stats on the season rather than anything we are seeing when these players are at their best and worst. Full season statistics have long been more predictive and indicative of their true talent level than anything we’ve seen out of players at their best and worst.</p>
<p>Even with this context, fans can often get prematurely excited. When Teoscar Hernándaz got hot after being called up in April, Jays fans were hopeful that with changes to his plate approach, Hernández could take his offensive game to the next level. But as the season wore on, his strikeout rate increased and his walk rate dropped &#8211;  he started looking more like the player we saw in 2017. Baseball is about adjustments and every time a hitter adjusts, pitchers will adjust back.</p>
<p>There is always the chance for players to improve or develop skills, but even these kinds of changes need to be demonstrated over full and multiple seasons – like Justin Smoak proving his 2017 breakout wasn’t a fluke. This is where analytics and scouts can help provide more context and information to help us understand when these streaks can be meaningful. But even with extra information and perspectives, time is important. Teoscar Hernández was <a title="The New Teoscar Hernández May be Here to Stay" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/02/the-new-teoscar-hernandez-may-be-here-to-stay/" target="_blank">showing strong peripheral statistics underlying his hot start</a>,  peripherals that are more predictive of future success, however those improvements weren&#8217;t sustainable either.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, that means all of the super hot streaks we’ve seen don’t suggest big things are in store for any of the Blue Jays above. Luckily, it means they aren’t as bad as they’ve looked either. And any team that has employed Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Smoak doesn&#8217;t have to remind you that real changes are absolutely possible.</p>
<p>They just take time.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><em>*wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) is a stat that measures a baseball players offensive contributions compared to other players in the league. Ex. A wRC+ of 100 is average – a player with a wRC+ of 150 is 50% better than an average major league hitter. A hitter was a wRC+ of 50 is 50% worse.</em></p>
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		<title>Deadline Day Moves: Blue Jays Trade Relievers Aaron Loup and John Axford</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/31/deadline-day-moves-jays-trade-loup-and-axford/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/31/deadline-day-moves-jays-trade-loup-and-axford/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jul 2018 20:31:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16481</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the biggest moves already completed in the J.A. Happ, Seunghwan Oh, and Roberto Osuna trades, the Blue Jays were still active today ahead of the 4pm non-waiver trade deadline. The first move of the day came when the Jays sent left-handed reliever Aaron Loup to the Phillies for minor leaguer Jacob Waguespack. Loup was [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the biggest moves already completed in the <a title="Blue Jays Send J.A. Happ to Yankees for 2B/3B Brandon Drury and OF Billy McKinney" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/26/trade-blue-jays-send-j-a-happ-to-yankees-for-2b3b-brandon-drury-and-of-billy-mckinney/" target="_blank">J.A. Happ</a>,<a title="TRADE: Blue Jays Trade RP Seunghwan Oh to Rockies for Prospects" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/25/trade-blue-jays-trade-seunghwan-oh-to-rockies-for-1b-prospects-chad-spanberger-and-sean-bouchard/" target="_blank"> Seunghwan Oh</a>, and <a title="Roberto Osuna Traded to Houston Astros for Ken Giles And Two Prospects" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/30/report-roberto-osuna-traded-to-houston-astros-for-ken-giles-and-maybe-more/" target="_blank">Roberto Osuna</a> trades, the Blue Jays were still active today ahead of the 4pm non-waiver trade deadline.</p>
<p>The first move of the day came when the Jays sent left-handed reliever Aaron Loup to the Phillies for minor leaguer Jacob Waguespack. Loup was the longest tenured member of the Blue Jays, having spent his entire professional career with the Toronto organization.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">OFFICIAL: We&#39;ve acquired minor league RHP Jacob Waguespack from the <a href="https://twitter.com/Phillies?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Phillies</a> in exchange for LHP Aaron Loup. <a href="https://t.co/GvjVU2bQEi">pic.twitter.com/GvjVU2bQEi</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/1024377979927838720?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 31, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Loup leaves in the midst of another solid-but-not-spectacular season of relief work where he posted a 4.54 ERA (3.61 FIP) and a career best 10.60 K/9. Despite often acting as a lightning rod for fan frustration, Loup has been a dependable reliever since his 2012 debut, pitching to a career ERA is 3.47 (3.49 FIP) and a 8.39 K/9 – his best work coming against left-handed batters.</p>
<p>In exchange for the veteran lefty reliever, the Blue Jays get Jacob Waguespack, a pitcher who’s last name is likely one of the most cut and pasted here on the internet this deadline day. Waguespack is a 24-year-old who made his triple-A debut this season, posting a 5.06 ERA (but a much more respectable 3.66 FIP) in 53.1 innings. Throughout his minor league career, Waguespack has kept the ball on the ground and generated enough strikeouts to matter (8.1 K/9 this season). According prospect writer, Eric Longenhagen, Waguespack has the potential to be a solid reliever:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Jacob Waguespack (from PHI to TOR for Aaron Loup) four-pitch righty with 90-93mph fastball. Odd-looking drop and drive delivery creates good angle on the fastball up in the zone. Could be solid reliever if one of the offspeed pitches (he has three) is tuned up. He&#39;s 24, at AAA.</p>
<p>&mdash; Eric Longenhagen (@longenhagen) <a href="https://twitter.com/longenhagen/status/1024384884532436992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 31, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The second trade of the afternoon occurred when the Jays then dealt Ontario native John Axford to the Los Angeles Dodgers for pitcher Corey Copping.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source confirms Blue Jays trade John Axford to Dodgers for RHP Corey Copping.</p>
<p>&mdash; Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) <a href="https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1024382893873881088?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 31, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Axford has posted a 4.41 ERA and a career-low 8.82 K/9 in 51 innings this season. Axford, endured himself to fans through his unique set of tastes and interests &#8211; he would often tweet about hardcore bands and watching foreign films on team flights. He will likely be remembered for his first ever career start last weekend in Chicago where he pitched three scoreless innings. Copping is a high strikeout reliever with control issues in his sixth season of pro ball. Like Waguespack, he is 24-years-old and was recently promoted to triple-A for the first time.</p>
<p>In getting Copping and Waguespack, they&#8217;ve added to their upper minors pitching depth, which was Ross Atkins&#8217; stated goal following the position player returns for Oh and Happ. That depth could be sorely needed following the exodus of four pitchers from the big league roster. And while neither of these trades involves the caliber of prospects/players that were exchanged in the Osuna and Happ trades, the Jays likely felt compelled to get what they could for players on expiring deals and fungible relievers that would be an unneeded luxury for the team out of contention for 2018.</p>
<p>However, this makes it surprising that they team didn’t move Curtis Granderson or Tyler Clippard ahead of the deadline this afternoon. But with more teams selling than buying at the deadline, there&#8217;s several reasons the Jays may have been unable or unwilling to move Clippard and Granderson. Both players (along with Estrada and possibly Josh Donaldson) could also potentially be moved in August, where trades are still possible, but the players must first clear trade waivers (or be dealt to the team who claims them).</p>
<p>It might not have been the most exciting deadline on-record for Blue Jays fans, but it was definitely a productive one.</p>
<p><em>*Photo Credit:  <span id=":23c.co" class="tL8wMe EMoHub" dir="ltr">Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</span></em></p>
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		<title>Buck and Pat&#8217;s &#8220;Big and Strong&#8221; All-Stars</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/13/buck-and-pats-big-and-strong-all-stars/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/13/buck-and-pats-big-and-strong-all-stars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Jul 2018 14:03:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16344</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don’t think I need to remind anyone that it hasn’t been a banner season for the Toronto Blue Jays. With J.A. Happ the sole Blue Jays All-Star representative, Jays fans and followers may not be very interested in the festivities this year. So let’s create our own. As many have pointed out, Buck Martinez [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don’t think I need to remind anyone that it hasn’t been a banner season for the Toronto Blue Jays. With J.A. Happ the sole Blue Jays All-Star representative, Jays fans and followers may not be very interested in the festivities this year.</p>
<p>So let’s create our own. As many have <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=big%20and%20strong%20buck%20pat&amp;src=typd">pointed out</a>, Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler, the Jays beloved TV broadcast crew, have an affinity and appreciation for players who are both big and strong. They can often be heard praising Blue Jays and their opponents alike for their size and strength and describing how these traits enhance their abilities to be better ballplayers. It’s often the first thing out of their mouths when Mark Trumbo or Joey Gallo steps up to the plate.</p>
<p>With this is mind, here are “Buck and Pat’s Big and Strong American League All-Stars” for the 2018 season.</p>
<p>Note 1: Any player that does not chew tobacco was disqualified from consideration.</p>
<p>Note 2: Gable Kapler is obviously the manager. Even though he’s in the National League.</p>
<h4>Evan Gattis – C</h4>
<p>Not only is Houston’s burly catcher-turned-designated hitter big and strong, he also refuses to wear batting gloves &#8211; on account of his rugged man hands being more than capable of properly gripping a bat on their own. Gattis has been on fire lately and his beard is as long as ever.</p>
<h4>Justin Smoak – 1B</h4>
<p>First base is one of the more difficult positions to crack on the Big and Strong All-Star team, but the Blue Jays lumbering first baseman is this year’s representative after leading the Blue Jays in big hacks. He also leads the team in on-base percentage but that doesn’t factor into Big and Strong All-Star voting. Honorable mentions to Baltimore’s Chris Davis, Chicago’s Jose Abreu and Tampa Bay’s C.J. Cron. Actually, honorable mention to every first baseman that isn’t Texas’ Ronald Guzman.</p>
<h4>Yoan Moncada – 2B</h4>
<p>The young White Sox second baseman has long been know known for his impressive physique and off-field workout programs. In turn, Moncada is much bigger than many of his fellow second basemen. While he has yet to translate his potential into sustained success at the major league level, Buck and Pat have often noted how Moncada’s strong hands and upper body allow him to muscle balls that a weaker, punier hitter wouldn’t be able to handle…the half of the time he actually makes contact.</p>
<h4>Manny Machado – SS</h4>
<p>The impending free agent is having a tremendous offensive year for an otherwise disappointing Orioles team. Machado’s size and offensive output is reminiscent of shortstops from the early 2000s that redefined the position &#8211; big bodied sluggers like Nomar Garciaparra and Alex Rodriguez. Unfortunately, the defensive metrics are suggesting that Machado is fielding the position like another early 2000s star shortstop: Derek Jeter. But hey, would you lay out for a ball in the hole if your team were forty games under .500?</p>
<h4>Mike Moustakas &#8211; 3B</h4>
<p>Moustakas looks to be on his way to another 30 plus home run season in Kansas City. While the barrel-chested third baseman will face a crowded third base free agent market this offseason, he could be a steal to any team that values shoulder broadness or waistline size.</p>
<h4>Aaron Judge – OF</h4>
<p>Despite only two seasons in the major leagues, Aaron Judge has become a fast favorite of the Jays broadcast team. Anyone who’s seen Judge stand next to Jose Altuve knows why Buck and Pat like him so much. But when it comes to Judge, Buck and Pat aren’t alone. Judge is legitimately the biggest man in baseball, and a talented player at that, too. Combine the two and he gets more praise from Buck and Pat than any ballplayer not named <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Mike Trout</span> Ryan Goins.</p>
<h4>Giancarlo Stanton – OF</h4>
<p>The Marlins loss is Buck and Pat’s gain. And the Yankees, I guess. If he were on any other team, Stanton would easily be the biggest and strongest player on his team, but thanks to the presence of Judge, he is in a two horse race. If horses were 6’6 absolutely destroyed baseballs. While strongest Yankee is still up for debate, Giancarlo Stanton is definitely the most shredded.</p>
<h4>Kole Calhoun – OF</h4>
<p>While Calhoun’s performance has fallen off this season, his largeness has remained elite. Calhoun may just be the platonic form of big and strong, which is why he is able to remain on the all-star team despite a down season. Calhoun’s poor showing combined with Shohei Ohtani’s elbow injury have caused a once-promising Angels team to fall to the fringes of the playoff picture. Poor Mike Trout.</p>
<h4>Nelson Cruz – DH</h4>
<p>Nelson Cruz just keeps hitting. The 37-year-old has already crossed the 20 home run mark; making it the 9<sup>th</sup> time in his career he has hit over 20 bombs in a season. The more cynical might remind us that Cruz may have had some help in getting as strong as he has, but PEDs sure didn’t make Dee Gordon yoked. Cruz is a big reason the M’s are battling the Astros for the division in the AL West.</p>
<h4>Luis Severino – SP</h4>
<p>Severino has cemented himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League this season. In a division full of excellent starting pitchers &#8211; Chris Sale, J.A. Happ, and pre-2017 Chris Archer, Severino has become one of the best. He may lose the Cy Young to Chris Sale, but he certainly wouldn’t lose a bench press contest.</p>
<h4>Corey Kluber – SP</h4>
<p>In addition to Kulber’s size and strength, his stoic and calm mound presence round out his gladiatorial on-field persona. Buck and Pat are often found commenting on Kulber’s ability to go deep into games (he is fourth in the American League with 126.1 innings pitched this season) and you can bet that they don’t think it&#8217;s because he’s efficient with his pitches.</p>
<h4>John Axford – RP</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays’ hard throwing reliever is listed at 6’5 and 220 pounds, which more than qualifies him for the squad. The fact that Axford is covered in tats and enters the game with his favorite hardcore tracks blaring through the Rogers Centre sound system adds another level of intimidation to his big and strongness.</p>
<h4>Craig Kimbrel – RP</h4>
<p>Kimbrel is having another dominant season as the Red Sox closer. The Alabama native is so big and strong that his face rejects hair where a moustache should be despite it growing everywhere else. If he keeps his current pace, this will be the second year in a row that Kimbrel posts an ERA under 2.00.</p>
<p>Enjoy the All-Star break!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>How Fast Are the Blue Jays Compared to Soccer Stars?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/05/how-fast-are-the-blue-jays-compared-to-soccer-stars/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/05/how-fast-are-the-blue-jays-compared-to-soccer-stars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jul 2018 10:23:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16242</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the Blue Jays struggling to stay competitive, no one would fault even the most die-hard baseball fan for tuning into the World Cup instead of one of last weekend&#8217;s Blue Jays-Tigers games. But as a die-hard baseball fan, baseball is never far from the mind. Even if you are watching Japan and Belgium play [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the Blue Jays struggling to stay competitive, no one would fault even the most die-hard baseball fan for tuning into the World Cup instead of one of last weekend&#8217;s Blue Jays-Tigers games. But as a die-hard baseball fan, baseball is never far from the mind. Even if you are watching Japan and Belgium play soccer. This got me thinking: how fast are some of the current Blue Jays relative to soccer players?</p>
<p>With baseball, Statcast makes these numbers easy to determine. The data is publicly available in feet per second. They take the player’s top speed in a one second windows based on running attempts that Statcast deems as competitive – meaning they don’t include a batter jogging to first after hitting a lazy fly ball. That would unfairly drag down a hitter’s sprint speed. You can read more about their methodology <a href="//www.mlb.com/news/2018-update-to-sprint-speed-boosts-trea-turner/c-272810784">here. </a>According to the data, the average Major League baseball player runs at 29.6 kilometers per hour (27 feet per second).</p>
<p>It’s a little harder to track down data in soccer given the many different leagues and studies. Two of the more prominent are <a href="https://talksport.com/football/348058/20-fastest-players-premier-league-season-including-sane-sterling-and-bellerin-180302274136/">a study</a> of the fastest players in the English Premier League, based on data from Opta and Chryon Hego and <a href="https://en.as.com/en/2017/02/14/football/1487065413_871808.html">another</a> by the Mexican league team C.F. Pachuca.</p>
<p>These studies aren&#8217;t as ideal as the Statcast data. They use different samples (Premier League players vs. all players), and they don’t disclose their methodologies &#8211; methodologies which must be slightly different given that some of the faster players from the Premier League study don&#8217;t appear on in the Pachuca list. But despite the problems, both studies (among several other sources) indicate that the best footballers are running at somewhere between 32 and 37 kilometers per hour.</p>
<p>According to the C.F. Pachuca study, Gareth Bale is the fastest active player, running at a top speed of 36.9 kilometers per hour (km/h). According to the Opta and Hego study, Leroy Sane is the fastest player in the EPL at 35.48 km/h. Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi have been clocked at 33.6 and 32.5 kilometers per hour respectively.</p>
<p>How do the Blue Jays stack up against some of soccer’s fastest and most famous athletes?</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="154">Blue Jays</td>
<td width="78">Sprint Speed</td>
<td width="113">Soccer Players</td>
<td width="97">Sprint Speed</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154">Teoscar Hernandez</td>
<td width="78">31.3 km/h</td>
<td width="113">Gareth Bale</td>
<td width="97">36.9 km/h</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154">Randal Grichuk</td>
<td width="78">31.2 km/h</td>
<td width="113">Leroy Sane</td>
<td width="97">35.48 km/h</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154">Lourdes Gurriel Jr.</td>
<td width="78">31.05 km/h</td>
<td width="113">Cristiano Ronaldo</td>
<td width="97">33.6 km/h</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154">Kevin Pillar/Aledmys Diaz</td>
<td width="78">30.6 km/h</td>
<td width="113">Leo Messi</td>
<td width="97">32.5 km/h</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="154">Kendrys Morales</td>
<td width="78">26.1 km/h</td>
<td width="113">Wayne Rooney</td>
<td width="97">31.2 km/h</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>There is no current Blue Jay that can outrun soccer’s fastest. But some of them aren’t as far behind as you may think. Teoscar Hernandez, the fastest player on the Jays, clocks in at 31.3 km/h, ahead of Wayne Rooney and only 1.2 km/h slower than Lionel Messi’s purported top speed.</p>
<p>Randal Grichuk is just behind Hernandez at 31.2 km/h &#8211; the exact same listed speed for Wayne Rooney. Kevin Pillar and Aledmys Diaz (yes, you did read that second name correctly) are tied for fourth speediest Blue Jay at 30.6 km/h. Kendrys Morales, the slowest Blue Jay, would need to take a cab to keep up with Leroy Sane or Gareth Bale, as he is a full 10 km/h slower with a foot speed of 26.1 km/h.</p>
<p>Just for fun, if these players were to run an entire hundred metre dash at top speed, Teoscar Hernandez would run it in 11.5 seconds and Messi would run it in 11.08 seconds, a difference of less than half a second. If Hernandez squared off against Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldo would beat him by less than a second (0.79). But keep in mind that neither the soccer or baseball players would actually be able to run a hundred metre dash at their top speed &#8211; as it takes a while to reach peak acceleration.</p>
<p>If Morales raced Gareth Bale in top-speed 100 metre dash, Bale would finish in 9.76 seconds while Morales would take 13.79 seconds – a difference of 4.03 seconds. Again, if Bale’s time seems suspiciously close to Usain Bolt’s world record, keep in mind that my calculation is looking just at these athletes’ top speeds measured in a small intervals of time, and sport science has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/oct/03/how-fast-can-we-go-the-science-of-sprinting">determined</a> that it typically takes 40 to 50 metres of running before you can reach top speed. In this example, athletes reach top velocity instantly &#8211; and maintain it for 100 metres. That&#8217;s why you&#8217;re seeing times that are contending with the actual world&#8217;s fastest man.</p>
<div class="adL">
<p>And this is important when considering the sprint speed times of baseball players, who may be at a disadvantage to soccer players when it comes to measuring an athlete&#8217;s top speed. Because most runs in baseball are shorter (think home to first, chasing down an outfield fly ball) soccer players may be more likely to get closer to their top speed than a baseball player. But I&#8217;ll reserve a deep dive in this topic for someone who&#8217;s taken more than grade 11 science.</p>
</div>
<p>When it comes to non-Blue Jay players, there are several that can hang with the soccer stars. Byron Buxton (33.5 km/h) and Trea Turner (33 km/h), two of baseball’s fastest players, are in the same ballpark as Ronaldo and faster than Messi. Both still fall well short of Bale and Sane.</p>
<p>In terms of all-time fastest players, baseball is lagging behind soccer once again. Arjen Robben, then with the Dutch national team, <a href="http://www.espn.com/soccer/league-name/story/1888364/headline">recorded</a> the fastest sprint speed by a soccer player at 37 km/h during the 2014 World Cup. According to <a href="https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1345278-bolt-ing-for-home-5-fastest-players-in-mlb-history">data</a> compiled by the Score before the Statcast era, the fastest baseball players of all-time are Vince Coleman (34.6 km/h), Deion Saunders (35.1 km/h), and sprinter-turned-pinch-runner Herb Washington (35.8 km/h). All of whom fall well short of Robben’s 37 km/h sprint speed.</p>
<p>So to the surprise of very few, soccer players are in many cases faster than baseball players. But the Jays are closer than you think &#8211; and in some instances, as is the case with Randal Grichuk and Wayne Rooney, the exact same speed. People like Byron Buxton, Cristiano Ronaldo, Trea Turner and Gareth Bale possess elite speed despite playing different sports. Without modern evaluation methods it would almost be impossible to tell the difference between these athletes. And even Blue Jays like Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez can hold their own in the foot speed department.</p>
<p>These are all very fast and supremely talented people.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Witters Sport-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>A Brief History of Alex Anthopoulos&#8217; Signature Moves and Moments</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/19/a-brief-history-of-alex-anthopoulos-signature-moves-and-moments/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/19/a-brief-history-of-alex-anthopoulos-signature-moves-and-moments/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Jun 2018 14:15:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16137</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A lot has changed since Alex Anthopoulos left Toronto. The Jays went to another American League Championship Series. Anthopoulos went to work for the Dodgers and inherited one of the best teams in baseball. The Blue Jays finished in last place. Anthopoulos went to work in Atlanta and inherited one of the best farm systems [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A lot has changed since Alex Anthopoulos left Toronto. The Jays went to another American League Championship Series. Anthopoulos went to work for the Dodgers and inherited one of the best teams in baseball. The Blue Jays finished in last place. Anthopoulos went to work in Atlanta and inherited one of the best farm systems in baseball.</p>
<p>As time has moved on, the revolt against AA’s sudden departure and his replacement &#8211; Mark Shapiro, has faded. Fewer people see Shapiro as Rogers’, corporate shill, sent to replace the good Canadian boy and run the team on a shoestring budget. They now look at Shapiro as the man who decided to unjustly maroon Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in double-A.</p>
<p>This week, Anthopoulos will be back in Toronto, if not in body, then in spirit, when his Atlanta Braves take on the Blue Jays. And that makes now as good a time as any to reflect on Anthopoulos’ time in Toronto. With this in mind, here are some of AA’s the signature moments and moves as the general manager of the last great Blue Jays team.</p>
<h4><strong>If You Can’t Land An Ace, Bring Back a Nostalgic Logo</strong></h4>
<p>If times are tough, it’s helpful to be reminded of happier times. And 2011 was most definitely a difficult season for the Blue Jays. The team finished 81-81, good for fourth place in the American League East. It was also the team’s first without Roy Halladay, who was traded to the Phillies the previous offseason. With the Yankees and Red Sox running over the rest of the division, and the Jays best player now in Philadelphia’s super-rotation, morale was not high heading into 2012.</p>
<p>When Anthopoulos couldn’t raise spirits by landing Yu Darvish (who the team narrowly missed out on), he did the next best thing: he brought back the Jays original logo.</p>
<p>If the product on the field wasn’t going to improve, at the very least the jerseys could. The rebooted Blue Jays jerseys put an end to “black Jays” era and all ugly hats that came with it.</p>
<h4><strong>If You Believe in Late Career Breakouts, It Will Save Your Team Money</strong></h4>
<p>Jose Bautista didn’t have a chip on his shoulder. He was mad because he was underpaid. AA took a huge chance when he signed Jose Bautista to a five-year $65 million contract with the Blue Jays. But as Bautista continued to rake, it turned out to be one of the best values in baseball. So he doubled down and signed Edwin Encarnacion to a three-year $29 million extension in 2012.</p>
<p>While the deals might have seemed risky at the time, they become two of the most team friendly contracts in baseball. The cost savings allowed Anthopoulos to add similarly talented (but more expensive) players later on when the time was right.</p>
<h4><strong>Managers Deserve Second Chances</strong></h4>
<p>Major League managers often unfairly take the blame for a struggling club. There’s only so much you can do when you’re making out the lineup card and not chasing down fly balls in the outfield. For the analytically inclined, a manager’s yearly contribution is often worth less over the course of a season than a Mike Trout hot streak.</p>
<p>Despite their inability to impact the games, when the team underperforms, the skipper is usually the first to get the axe. (Sometimes team’s will savagely fire the pitching coach) Anthopoulos, smartly recognized the irrationality in this, and instead of getting upset when John Farrell left the Jays high and dry to take a job with the Red Sox, Anthopoulos simply returned the job to John Gibbons, who managed the team from 2004 to 2008.</p>
<p>With a stronger Blue Jays team (and weaker Yankees and Red Sox teams) Gibby has done just fine during his second go around in the big chair.</p>
<h4><strong>If Guys Won’t Sign With Your Team, Trade For ‘Em Instead</strong></h4>
<p>One thing Anthopoulos learned during his tenure with the Blue Jays is that free agency is a difficult pool to swim in. Not only do you have to offer a player more money than they will likely be worth over the course of their contract, but you have to convince them to come to your city.</p>
<p>Between the artificial turf, Canadian taxes, and a team struggling to stay relevant in the AL East, Toronto was a tough sell as a free agent destination. The Jays just missed out on Yu Darvish, Anibal Sanchez, and Ervin Santana at various points during AA’s tenure. But when Anthopoulos couldn’t land the player he wanted on the free agent market, he did the next best thing: he traded his prospects for them.</p>
<p>David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, R.A. Dickey, Colby Rasmus, Brandon Morrow, and the 2012 Marlins roster all came to Toronto via trades. Anthopoulos was making crazy trades before Jerry Dipoto made it cool.</p>
<p>AA took a school of trading and adapted it for the modern game. Originally attributed to Dave Dombrowski, the school preached trading away all your prospects in exchange for established stars. This is what Dombrowski has done during his work with the Detroit Tigers and (currently) with Boston Red Sox.</p>
<p>Anthopoulos developed his own, abridged version &#8211; where he kept the best prospects (Vlad Jr., Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, hopefully Anthony Alford) while trading away the rest. Understanding that it’s ok to trade prospects as long as you keep the best ones (and forget about Noah Syndergaard) helped endear Anthopoulos to a fanbase starved for playoff baseball.</p>
<h4><strong>Don’t Acquire Tools If the Player Themself Is A Tool</strong></h4>
<p>Given his background in scouting, Anthopoulos initially favored toolsy players when constructing his roster. When he didn’t account for some of the colourful (Brett Lawrie), angry (Shea Hillenbrand), or homophobic (Yunel Escobar) characters those tools were attached to, he publicly acknowledged his decision to amend his approach to include things like character when signing and trading for players. Enter Russ Martin and Troy Tulowitzki, who have likely consumed fewer Red Bulls in their entire lives than Brett Lawrie has in a week.</p>
<h4><strong> Somehow Convince Billy Beane to Trade You Josh Donaldson</strong></h4>
<p>Many have made the joke that Anthopoulos must have had compromising pictures of Beane to get him to make the Donaldson trade. This seems unlikely – most general managers would have had the photos leaked rather than making the trade. By the time the Jays acquired Donaldson, no one should have been surprised at Anthopoulos’ ability to make an improbable trade (he did trade Vernon Wells and his massive contract) but Donaldson’s addition was once again a major splash that saw many Blue Jay fans reinvigorated and reinvested in their team.</p>
<p><strong>Leave A Little Something Behind For People to Remember You By</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/vNg2Omw2dUCMtULUx0" width="480" height="270" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>MLB Draft: Day Three Recap &#8211; Rounds 11-40</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/06/day-three-draft-recap-rounds-11-40/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/06/day-three-draft-recap-rounds-11-40/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jun 2018 22:57:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Draft]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16068</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today marked day three of Major League Baseball’s amateur draft. If you didn’t know anyone without a famous father selected on days one and two, you’re really not going to know anyone picked today. But it doesn’t mean the players picked today won’t be able to make an impact in the major leagues some day. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today marked day three of Major League Baseball’s amateur draft. If you didn’t know anyone without a famous father selected on days one and two, you’re really not going to know anyone picked today.</p>
<p>But it doesn’t mean the players picked today won’t be able to make an impact in the major leagues some day. Today, the Jays took lots of college players and lots of pitchers #analysis. So without further comment (because really there’s nothing else I know), here are the Jays day three selections, with some notes others have made on notable players.</p>
<table width="452">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="48"><strong>Round</strong></td>
<td width="128"><strong>Pick</strong></td>
<td width="64"><strong>Position</strong></td>
<td width="213"><strong>School</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">11</td>
<td width="128">Hunter Steinmetz</td>
<td width="64">CF</td>
<td width="213">Missouri State University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">12</td>
<td width="128">Nick Allgeyer</td>
<td width="64">LHP</td>
<td width="213">University of Iowa</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">13</td>
<td width="128">Brad Wilson</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Ohio Dominican University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">14</td>
<td width="128">John Aiello</td>
<td width="64">3B</td>
<td width="213">Wake Forest</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">15</td>
<td width="128">Troy Watson</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">University of Northern Colorado</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">16</td>
<td width="128">Josh Hiatt</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">North Carolina University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">17</td>
<td width="128">Austin Havekost</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Kent State University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">18</td>
<td width="128">Fitz Stadler</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Arizona State University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">19</td>
<td width="128">Adrian Ramos</td>
<td width="64">OF</td>
<td width="213">Miami Dade Community College South</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">20</td>
<td width="128">Vinny Capra</td>
<td width="64">SS</td>
<td width="213">University of Richmond</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">21</td>
<td width="128">Kobby Lopez</td>
<td width="64">LHP</td>
<td width="213">Imperial High School</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">22</td>
<td width="128">Gage Burland</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Lewis-Clark State</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">23</td>
<td width="128">Troy Squires</td>
<td width="64">C</td>
<td width="213">University of Kentucky</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">24</td>
<td width="128">Mike Pascoe</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">San Jacinto College North</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">25</td>
<td width="128">Will McAffer</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Tulane University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">26</td>
<td width="128">Brett Wright</td>
<td width="64">C</td>
<td width="213">Auburn University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">27</td>
<td width="128">Kyle Luckham</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">El Dorado High School</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">28</td>
<td width="128">Andy McGuire</td>
<td width="64">IF</td>
<td width="213">University of Texas</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">29</td>
<td width="128">Cre Finfrock</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Central Florida</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">30</td>
<td width="128">Cobi Johnson</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Florida State</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">31</td>
<td width="128">Austin Easter</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">UNC Wilmington</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">32</td>
<td width="128">Joey Pulido</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">University of Houston</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">33</td>
<td width="128">Matt Harris</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Florida Atlantic University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">34</td>
<td width="128">Grant Townsend</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Oral Roberts University</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">35</td>
<td width="128">Damiano Palmegiani</td>
<td width="64">3B</td>
<td width="213">Vexhall High School</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">36</td>
<td width="128">Kameron Guangorena,</td>
<td width="64">C</td>
<td width="213">St. John Bosco High School</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">37</td>
<td width="128">Parker Caracci</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">University of Mississippi</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">38</td>
<td width="128">Francisco Ruiz</td>
<td width="64">C</td>
<td width="213">Carlos Beltran Baseball Academy</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">39</td>
<td width="128">Cole Beverlin</td>
<td width="64">RHP</td>
<td width="213">Spruce Creek High School</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="48">40</td>
<td width="128">Drew Labounty</td>
<td width="64">SS</td>
<td width="213">University of Southern Alabama</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Notable Selections</h3>
<p>Unlike in previous seasons, the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t gamble on a lot of high school players who would be tough signs after round 10 (when you no longer lose bonus pool money for failed signings), instead opting for college players to fill out the minor league ranks. This is almost certainly due to <a href="https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/blue-jays-picks-on-day-2-of-mlb-draft/c-279925852" target="_blank">the reported well-over-slot bonus</a> given to third rounder, Adam Kloffenstein. As a result of that move, the Blue Jays are likely very limited in available money to buy a tough commitment out of college (every dollar spent over $100K counts against the pool from rounds 1-10), and thus decided not to waste the draft picks. That said, there are still a few players who are worth an extra mention:</p>
<p><strong>Hunter Steinmetz – Round 11</strong></p>
<p>Steinmetz, 21, is know as a strong defensive outfielder capable of making <a href="https://www.news-leader.com/story/sports/college/msu/2018/06/06/what-you-need-know-blue-jays-draft-pick-hunter-steinmetz/640885002/">highlight reel catches </a>while playing college baseball at MSU. Steinmetz has posted strong walk rates throughout his college career and he led the Cape Cod league in stolen bases last season.</p>
<p><strong>John Aiello – Round 14</strong></p>
<p>As reported by <a href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2018/6/6/17310178/2018-mlb-draft-day-3-blue-jays-picks-rounds-11-40-and-open-thread">Blue Bird Banter</a>, Aiello was a top 200 prospect in 2015 but saw his stock drop when he underwent Tommy John surgery, forcing him to go to college instead of entering pro ball. He had a strong 2017 season followed by a difficult 2018.</p>
<p><strong>Austin Havekost &#8211; Round 17</strong></p>
<p>He <a href="https://www.kentstatesports.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=9777">kinda looks</a> like Jeff Samardzija.</p>
<p><strong>Kyle Luckham &#8211; Round 27<br />
</strong></p>
<p>According to Zachary Friedman of <a href="https://scouttrio.com/reports/f/kyle-luckham-rhp-el-dorado-hs-c4050-440000-summation">Scouttrio</a>, Luckham has the ceiling of a number four or five starter. Sitting 89-92 with his fastball and the chance to develop three average or better pitches. It looks like he is committed to Cal Sate Fullerton so there’s a chance he may not sign.</p>
<p><strong>Damiano Palmegiani &#8211; Round 35<br />
</strong></p>
<p>The Jays took a <a href="https://www.canadianbaseballnetwork.com/canadian-baseball-network-articles/palmegiani-from-venezuela-to-vauxhall-to-t12">Canadian product</a> with their 35<sup>th</sup> pick: Damiano Palmegiani. Palmegiani is a high school third baseman that was born in Venezuela but migrated to Alberta when he was five years old. Palmegiani is playing high school baseball at the Vauxhall Academy, a baseball program that has produced 16 MLB draft picks.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Reflecting on the Blue Jays Twitter Experience</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/29/reflecting-on-the-blue-jays-twitter-experience/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/29/reflecting-on-the-blue-jays-twitter-experience/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 May 2018 14:54:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15961</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, the National Post reported some of the findings from an academic study of the Toronto Blue Jays Twitter community conducted by PhD candidate Katie Sveinson. The elements of Sveinson’s study covered by the National Post were about how people are often driven apart through their discussion of the Blue Jays via Twitter. An idea [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday, the National Post <a href="http://nationalpost.com/news/canada/diehard-blue-jays-fans-are-the-biggest-jerks-study">reported </a>some of the findings from an academic study of the Toronto Blue Jays Twitter community conducted by PhD candidate Katie Sveinson.</p>
<p>The elements of Sveinson’s study covered by the National Post were about how people are often driven apart through their discussion of the Blue Jays via Twitter. An idea that runs counter to the conventional wisdom that sport brings people together. Sveinson also speaks of the allegedly divisive and hierarchical nature of fan interactions on Twitter.</p>
<p>I was initially surprised to read about Sveinson’s study, as I personally didn’t find that her findings reflected my own online experiences surrounding the team; Blue Jays Twitter doesn’t feel like a hierarchical, exclusionary place to me. I was also unsure of her methodology (as described in the Post article), as she chose to only use tweets that included team hashtags or the word fan in her sample set. It didn’t feel like an accurate representation of the Blue Jays Twitter I know.</p>
<p>But after reflecting for a minute, the article made me realize that I may be guilty of some of the things I was just suggesting don’t exist about being part of the Blue Jays online community.</p>
<p>I do think it’s important to recognize there may be a difference between one&#8217;s own experiences, and the experiences of other Blue Jay fans on Twitter. While I have enjoyed pleasant experiences interacting on Twitter with other Blue Jay fans, (without using team hashtags), that doesn’t mean the majority of other baseball fans do the same. It’s very possible that me and my merry band of Twitter friends are in the minority of people using Blue Jays Twitter. As much as I feel differently, criticizing someone’s methodology with anecdotal experience won’t lead to a more accurate conclusion. If I’m really going to take issue with the study, I think I need to do better than, “that’s not what it’s like for me.” The research may have missed out on representing some of the Twitter community, but I don’t think it means we know that it missed the majority of it.</p>
<p>I also realized that I might be guilty of contributing to the not-so wonderful behaviors that Sveninson’s research discovered. As much as I like to think of myself as an inclusive, positive member of the community, I can sometimes find myself talking down or making fun of tweeters or opinions that I think aren’t correct. Say, when a fan is using team hashtags un-ironically while arguing the Jays need to bunt more often while simultaneously re-hiring Alex Anthopoulos and firing John Gibbons. Whether it’s the value of bunting, the performance of the manager, or clutch hitting, I can sometimes resort to needling, teasing, or a sarcastic sub-tweet instead of engaging when people have opinions that I would deem as incorrect.</p>
<p>They aren’t usually doing anything to raise the discourse, but it’s hard to say I’m not contributing to some type of divisive behavior when I scream right back at them. I fully support the idea that some positions are so ridiculous that they don’t deserve engagement, and once in a while they rear their ugly head, but those are usually reserved for things far more important than small ball. Or almost anything that happens on a baseball field.</p>
<p>I get that there’s negativity and divisiveness all over every social media site. It doesn’t mean that the negative attributes Sveinson identifies with Blue Jays Twitter don’t exist, or that they aren’t significant. Maybe the amount of divisiveness or negativity associated with sports Twitter (or Blue Jays Twitter) is disproportionate to other corners or communities online. It can often feel (again, I want to be VERY careful with anecdotal evidence) that there is more vitriol in discussions about baseball, than say, the online discussions I have about music. Perhaps this would be an interesting research question if it hasn’t been tackled already.</p>
<p>Blue Jays Twitter has been a great place for me to interact with other people interested and invested in the team. My experience has been mostly positive and inclusive, which makes watching the game I love even more enjoyable. I think a lot of the people I follow and interact with would say the same thing. But my experience doesn’t necessarily reflect that experience of others &#8211; I make this argument all the time when talking about things more important than baseball. And given that I (and I&#8217;m guessing most people) haven’t read Sveinson’s full paper (just the National Post article) I wouldn’t think it’s fair to say her research is so flawed that it should be disregarded. That doesn’t mean it’s perfect, either.</p>
<p>I’m going to take this research as a friendly reminder to be my best self online. And that even a great thing can be better, and not always the exact way I perceive it.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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