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	<title>Toronto &#187; Jenn Smith</title>
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		<title>What to Expect Out of the Blue Jays Infield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/02/what-expect-blue-jays-infield-travis-smoak-tulo/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/02/what-expect-blue-jays-infield-travis-smoak-tulo/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Mar 2018 11:30:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Nearly everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Blue Jays last season. An absurd number of injuries combined with below-average depth players colluded to derail the Blue Jays’ 2017 season. With the exception of losing Aaron Sanchez for all but eight starts, leaving a gaping hole in the Jays&#8217; rotation, these injuries [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nearly everything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Blue Jays last season. An absurd number of injuries combined with below-average depth players colluded to derail the Blue Jays’ 2017 season. With the exception of losing Aaron Sanchez for all but eight starts, leaving a gaping hole in the Jays&#8217; rotation, these injuries took the greatest toll on the team&#8217;s offensive prowess. The Jays finished dead last in runs scored in the American League (fifth-last in all of baseball) and rolled through the entire 162-game schedule without ever reaching .500.</p>
<p>Working under the assumption that the Yankees, Astros and Cleveland will win their respective divisions with the Red Sox earning the first Wild Card spot, realistic expectations have the Jays vying for the second Wild Card. Both the Angels and Twins have improved their rosters this offseason and no doubt have their eyes fixed on a playoff berth as well. Everything must break right for the Jays if they are to return to the postseason, which means their run production has to improve.</p>
<p>Of particular concern when it comes to run production is the status of three-quarters of the infield. One can safely assume that Josh Donaldson will continue to be this team’s best hitter, but there are question marks surrounding the health and productivity of both Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki. Both played in fewer than half the total number of games last season and, when they did play, they under-produced. Justin Smoak, in contrast, did just the opposite: He appeared in all but four games and produced way above his career norms. He was so good that one can&#8217;t help but wonder if he&#8217;s set to turn back into a pumpkin.</p>
<p>What can fans reasonably expect from these three players? The answer lies in the projections.</p>
<h3>Devon Travis</h3>
<p>Perhaps no one player on this team is shrouded more in injury speculation than second baseman Devon Travis. The 27-year-old appeared in just 50 games last season before undergoing knee surgery in mid-June to repair cartilage in his knee.</p>
<p>Travis has played in just 211 major-league games since the Blue Jays acquired him in 2015. Plagued by both shoulder and knee issues, one must assume that Travis will be unable to stay healthy all season. Offseason moves made by the Jays’ front office reflect this concern: The acquisition of middle infielders Yangervis Solarte and, to a lesser extent, Aledmys Diaz, addressed the uncertainty surrounding the ability of both Travis and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to play something resembling a full season. However, while Tulowitzki is projected to play at least 100 games by Steamer, ZiPS and PECOTA, there is a discrepancy between projection systems with regard to Travis’ ability to stay on the field.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="80"><strong> </strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>PA</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="58"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="74"><strong>WAR(P)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Steamer</td>
<td width="57">92</td>
<td width="59">398</td>
<td width="60">.274</td>
<td width="60">.320</td>
<td width="60">.436</td>
<td width="57">51</td>
<td width="59">45</td>
<td width="58">11</td>
<td width="74">1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">ZiPS</td>
<td width="57">94</td>
<td width="59">383</td>
<td width="60">.276</td>
<td width="60">.322</td>
<td width="60">.459</td>
<td width="57">50</td>
<td width="59">49</td>
<td width="58">12</td>
<td width="74">1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">PECOTA</td>
<td width="57">49</td>
<td width="59">195</td>
<td width="60">.271</td>
<td width="60">.314</td>
<td width="60">.420</td>
<td width="57">22</td>
<td width="59">22</td>
<td width="58">5</td>
<td width="74">0.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Projections for Devon Travis’ 2018 Season</em></p>
<p>These three sets of projections represent both the best- and worst-case scenarios for Travis’ 2018 season. Both Steamer and ZiPS project Travis to play close to his career-best 101 games; PECOTA takes a much more cautious approach and projects Travis will fall just shy of the 50 games he played in last season. One can assume the first scenario would be satisfactory to the front office, as they clearly do not expect Travis to play a full schedule. The second scenario would mean another disastrous season for Travis and a heavy reliance on backup players.</p>
<p>As previously mentioned, the once-mighty Toronto offense simply could not outscore their opponents last season. With questions surrounding their starting rotation (can Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman be healthy the entire season?), the Jays must score more runs if they are to compete for the second Wild Card spot. Where does Travis fit into all of this?</p>
<p>Travis&#8217; ability to stay on the field will have an impact on Jays&#8217; lineup construction. When in the starting lineup, Travis is the most likely candidate to bat leadoff. Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Justin Smoak and Troy Tulowitzki are the only regulars who are projected, per PECOTA, to have an OBP at least ten points higher than Travis. (Tulowitzki drops off that list if using Steamer or ZiPS projections.) Tulowitzki has made it clear in the past that he does not want to bat leadoff, and the other three are power hitters who provide better run production if they are batting with runners on base.</p>
<p>The other implication of Travis&#8217; health is the extent to which backup players will play a role this season. Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins combined for 112 games and 357 plate appearances at second base in 2017 – far too many plate appearances for a team struggling to score runs.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="80"><strong> </strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>PA</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="58"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="74"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Travis</td>
<td width="57">50</td>
<td width="59">197</td>
<td width="60">.259</td>
<td width="60">.291</td>
<td width="60">.428</td>
<td width="57">22</td>
<td width="59">24</td>
<td width="58">5</td>
<td width="74">0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Barney</td>
<td width="57">64</td>
<td width="59">204</td>
<td width="60">.232</td>
<td width="60">.275</td>
<td width="60">.327</td>
<td width="57">34</td>
<td width="59">25</td>
<td width="58">6</td>
<td width="74">-0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Goins</td>
<td width="57">48</td>
<td width="59">153</td>
<td width="60">.237</td>
<td width="60">.286</td>
<td width="60">.356</td>
<td width="57">37</td>
<td width="59">62</td>
<td width="58">9</td>
<td width="74">0.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>2017 Production from Blue Jays’ Starting Second Basemen</em></p>
<p><em>* Note: Aside from games and plate appearances, stats for Barney and Goins are for total games played.</em></p>
<p>Compare those numbers to the projections for Yangervis Solarte, who will get the vast majority of starts at second base when Travis is not in the lineup.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="80"><strong> </strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>PA</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="58"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="74"><strong>WAR(P)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Steamer</td>
<td width="57">76</td>
<td width="59">308</td>
<td width="60">.272</td>
<td width="60">.335</td>
<td width="60">.442</td>
<td width="57">38</td>
<td width="59">38</td>
<td width="58">10</td>
<td width="74">1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">ZiPS</td>
<td width="57">131</td>
<td width="59">519</td>
<td width="60">.273</td>
<td width="60">.328</td>
<td width="60">.446</td>
<td width="57">56</td>
<td width="59">79</td>
<td width="58">17</td>
<td width="74">2.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">PECOTA</td>
<td width="57">81</td>
<td width="59">346</td>
<td width="60">.265</td>
<td width="60">.326</td>
<td width="60">.413</td>
<td width="57">52</td>
<td width="59">51</td>
<td width="58">12</td>
<td width="74">0.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Projections for Yangervis Solarte’s’ 2018 Season</em></p>
<p><em>*Note: all values are for total games played, not just those at second base</em></p>
<p>Having a backup second baseman who can produce an OBP in the three hundreds and a slugging percentage in the four hundreds makes the potential absence of Travis and/or Tulowitzki much more palatable.</p>
<p>In fact, Solarte is better than a replacement-level player. Last season he hit .255/.314/.416 with 18 home runs and 64 RBI and was worth 1.2 WARP over 128 games while providing steady defense. Those numbers were down from a stellar 2016 campaign, showing that Solarte has the potential to be much more than just an adequate stopgap.</p>
<h3>Troy Tulowitzki</h3>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki played in only 66 games last season, during which he slashed .249/.300/.378 and was worth just 0.3 WARP. He entered spring training this year dealing with bone spurs in his heel and has no timetable to return to game action. What are reasonable expectations for Tulowitzki this season? All three projection systems predict that Tulowitzki will play at least 100 games this season and will provide greater offensive production than he did in 2017 (although ZiPS is less certain of his ability to have a bounce-back season at the plate).</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="80"><strong> </strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>PA</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="58"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="74"><strong>WAR(P)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Steamer</td>
<td width="57">100</td>
<td width="59">407</td>
<td width="60">.261</td>
<td width="60">.326</td>
<td width="60">.446</td>
<td width="57">49</td>
<td width="59">54</td>
<td width="58">16</td>
<td width="74">1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">ZiPS</td>
<td width="57">100</td>
<td width="59">409</td>
<td width="60">.247</td>
<td width="60">.313</td>
<td width="60">.412</td>
<td width="57">43</td>
<td width="59">52</td>
<td width="58">15</td>
<td width="74">1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">PECOTA</td>
<td width="57">113</td>
<td width="59">474</td>
<td width="60">.264</td>
<td width="60">.335</td>
<td width="60">.435</td>
<td width="57">61</td>
<td width="59">68</td>
<td width="58">19</td>
<td width="74">2.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Projections for Troy Tulowitzki’s 2018 Season</em></p>
<p>These numbers are not nearly as good as what Tulowitzki was capable of at the peak of his career, but the age curve has been unkind to Tulo and fans should not expect him to ever again produce at the same level he once did. ZiPS appears to take this into consideration more than the other two systems, and has Tulo hitting for a lower average and only a marginally better OBP than he did in 2017. Steamer and PECOTA, meanwhile, predict a better season than last both in terms of his ability to stay on the field and contribute to run production.</p>
<p>As is the case with Travis, Tulowitzki is now backed up by a player capable of putting up numbers similar to, if not better than, his own in Aledmys Diaz.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="80"><strong> </strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>PA</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="58"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="74"><strong>WAR(P)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Steamer</td>
<td width="57">48</td>
<td width="59">191</td>
<td width="60">.260</td>
<td width="60">.310</td>
<td width="60">.423</td>
<td width="57">23</td>
<td width="59">23</td>
<td width="58">6</td>
<td width="74">0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">ZiPS</td>
<td width="57">126</td>
<td width="59">500</td>
<td width="60">.255</td>
<td width="60">.301</td>
<td width="60">.413</td>
<td width="57">50</td>
<td width="59">54</td>
<td width="58">14</td>
<td width="74">0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">PECOTA</td>
<td width="57">32</td>
<td width="59">119</td>
<td width="60">.263</td>
<td width="60">.319</td>
<td width="60">.425</td>
<td width="57">22</td>
<td width="59">21</td>
<td width="58">5</td>
<td width="74">0.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Projections for Aledmys Diaz’s 2018 Season</em></p>
<p><em>*Note: all values are for total games played, not just those at shortstop</em></p>
<p>Neither Tulowitzki nor his replacement duo of Barney and Goins were very good at the plate last season. Should the 2018 projections pan out, shortstop will not be an offensive black hole this season regardless of who is playing the position.</p>
<h3>Justin Smoak</h3>
<p>The other major question in the infield is whether or not Justin Smoak can reproduce his offensive production from last season. We all know that 2017 was a surprise breakout year for Smoak, when he went from being a below-average hitter to slashing .270/.335/.529 while belting 38 home runs and driving in 90 RBI over 158 games, good for 2.6 WARP. Can he possibly replicate that production in 2018? Here are his projected numbers.<em> </em></p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="80"><strong> </strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>G</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>PA</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="57"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="59"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="58"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="74"><strong>WAR(P)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">Steamer</td>
<td width="57">140</td>
<td width="59">595</td>
<td width="60">.249</td>
<td width="60">.337</td>
<td width="60">.475</td>
<td width="57">79</td>
<td width="59">88</td>
<td width="58">30</td>
<td width="74">1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">ZiPS</td>
<td width="57">151</td>
<td width="59">518</td>
<td width="60">.257</td>
<td width="60">.340</td>
<td width="60">.491</td>
<td width="57">65</td>
<td width="59">80</td>
<td width="58">27</td>
<td width="74">2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="80">PECOTA</td>
<td width="57">138</td>
<td width="59">610</td>
<td width="60">.240</td>
<td width="60">.326</td>
<td width="60">.430</td>
<td width="57">75</td>
<td width="59">83</td>
<td width="58">25</td>
<td width="74">0.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Projections for Justin Smoak’s 2018 Season</em></p>
<p>While all projections indicate that Smoak will not duplicate his All-Star season numbers, they also predict that Smoak will continue to produce well above his career average of .232/.317/.416. Steamer and ZiPS also predict that while Smoak’s strikeout rate ought to increase by about 3.7 percent over last year’s 20.1 percent (his career low), he ought to continue walking at about the same rate while hitting his second-highest home run total. All of this suggests the adjustments Smoak made prior to the 2017 season have indeed changed his approach at the plate.</p>
<p>What stands out in Smoak&#8217;s case, however, is the difference in projected wins above replacement. ZiPS is quite bullish on Smoak, both in terms of the number of games played and offensive value. Steamer and PECOTA have Smoak playing essentially the same number of games, but PECOTA is less confident in Smoak&#8217;s run production. Best-case scenario has Smoak producing 2.1 WAR; worst-case pegs him to be worth less than one. Every single win matters for a team fighting for the second Wild Card spot. The Jays need Smoak to produce at the upper end of the projection spectrum, especially given that his primary replacement at first base, Steve Pearce, is only expected to be worth 0.8 WARP for the entire season.</p>
<p>No one can predict injuries, as we learned last season, so whether or not Travis and Tulowitzki can remain on the field is almost a moot point. What matters more is that the Jays can now back them up with bench players who are likely to provide at or near the same offensive value. One has reason to be concerned as to whether or not Smoak will continue to rake at the plate, particularly given his drop-off during the last two months of the season. If the combined second base/shortstop position can produce more than the -0.1 WARP of the Travis/Tulo/Barney/Goins tag team in 2017, the Jays can rely less heavily on Smoak&#8217;s run production.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Thanks for the Memories: The Top 10 Blue Jays Moments of 2017</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/31/thanks-for-the-memories-the-top-10-blue-jays-moments-of-2017/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/31/thanks-for-the-memories-the-top-10-blue-jays-moments-of-2017/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Dec 2017 13:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14757</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2017 season was not kind to the Toronto Blue Jays. After back-to-back appearances in the ALCS, the Jays failed to reach the .500 mark at any point. Fraught with injuries and sub-par performances, the year can only be described as a frustrating. Not matter how disappointing the season may have been, a day of bad [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2017 season was not kind to the Toronto Blue Jays. After back-to-back appearances in the ALCS, the Jays failed to reach the .500 mark at any point. Fraught with injuries and sub-par performances, the year can only be described as a frustrating.</p>
<p>Not matter how disappointing the season may have been, a day of bad baseball is better than a day with no baseball at all. So, I <a href="https://twitter.com/Baseball_Jenn/status/946024961566654469" target="_blank">asked Jays&#8217; Twitter</a> to share their favourite moments from the past season. As we get set to usher in 2018 and eagerly await the return of baseball, here is a look back at the ten best Blue Jays moments of the 2017 season in the order in which they occurred. Enjoy!</p>
<h4><strong>1. It’s A Bird…It’s a Plane…It’s Superman</strong></h4>
<p><em>Chris Coghlan’s Somersault Dive, April 25<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1322600683" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Only nineteen games into the season, with fans already mired in the frustration of a 5-14 start, an unlikely hero sparked a comeback victory that had fans believing they might have witnessed the turning point in the young season.</p>
<p>Chris Coglan entered as a pinch-hitter in the seventh inning of a tied game against the St. Louis Cardinals. He drew a walk and was at first base when Kevin Pillar hit a ball into the right-field corner. As Coghlan rounded third, he got the green-light from third-base coach Luis Rivera. It appeared to be the wrong decision; Cardinals’ right fielder Stephen Piscotty rifled the ball home to catcher Yadier Molina, who took up position in front of the plate. Coghlan appeared to be a dead duck.</p>
<p>In a split-second decision that defied logic – and gravity – Coghlan leaped head-first over Molina, somersaulting onto the plate to score the go-ahead run. The play was so incredible it was <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/top-100-plays-of-2017-mlb-season/c-264016144" target="_blank">ranked second-best</a> by MLB.com. It may not have turned the Jays’ fortunes around, but for that one brief moment, Coghlan’s heroics made anything seem possible.</p>
<h4><strong>2. It’s a Bird…It’s a Plane…It’s Kevin Pillar</strong></h4>
<p><em>Kevin Pillar Robs José Ramirez, May 8<sup>th</sup> </em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/must-c-pillar-lays-out/c-1368756083?tid=6479266" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p>We should all be used to this by now.</p>
<p>With two on and two out in the top of the sixth inning, Cleveland’s third baseman José Ramirez drove a ball to deep centre field. Racing backwards towards the wall, Kevin Pillar flew through the air with the greatest of ease, laying out to make one of the best catches of his career. The leaping grab, which saved two runs for sure, was so spectacular it was ranked third on MLB.com’s top 100 plays of the season.</p>
<h4><strong>3. Back-to-Back Battery Jacks</strong></h4>
<p><em>Luke Maile’s and Marcus Stroman’s Improbable Home Runs, May 18<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1402763283" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>After five consecutive victories leading up to their series in Atlanta, the Jays dropped three straight against the Braves despite scoring fifteen total runs. The team was in need of a little magic.</p>
<p>They say that good pitching beats good hitting, but the Jays got a little of both from starter Marcus Stroman, who took the ball for the fourth and final game of the series. Not only did he pitch 5 2/3 innings of shut-out ball, but he provided a little offense by launching his first career home run, a solo shot to opposite field. A career-first for Stroman was just the <a href="https://twitter.com/SNstats/status/865376632336506880%20" target="_blank">second home run hit by a pitcher</a> in Blue Jays history.</p>
<p>What made the feat all the more historic was that it was preceded by another unlikely home run off the bat of Stroman’s battery-mate Luke Maile, marking the <a href="https://twitter.com/SNstats/status/865384861837791232" target="_blank">first time that an American League pitcher and catcher</a> have hit back-to-back home runs in the designated hitter era.</p>
<p>It may not have been magic, but it sure seemed magical.</p>
<h4><strong>4. Bigger Than The Game</strong></h4>
<p><em>Robert Osuna Hugs Russell Martin After Returning to the Mound, June 25<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">On the field or not, Osuna &amp; Martin show friendship at its best! <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertoOsuna1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RobertoOsuna1</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/russellmartin55?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@russellmartin55</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/LetsRise?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#LetsRise</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OsunaMatata?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OsunaMatata</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BlueJays</a> <a href="https://t.co/vPk5ibuHOh">pic.twitter.com/vPk5ibuHOh</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Lorraine McMillanG (mom of Otis the parrot) (@bluejaylover49) <a href="https://twitter.com/bluejaylover49/status/879095377055682560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>One of the lowest moments of the season was a Friday night loss to the Kansas City Royals, a game in which the Jays held a 4-1 heading to the bottom of the ninth before watching it all unravel. The Royals rallied for three two-out runs off Jason Grilli and Aaron Loup, begging the question as to why Roberto Osuna, who was seen on camera looking morose on the bench, had not been used to close out the game.</p>
<p>In his post-game interview, manager John Gibbons protected his young star by saying that Osuna had not been feeling well. The following morning, Osuna revealed to the media that he had been experiencing anxiety and thus had not been able to pitch the night before.</p>
<p>It was a rare admission from a professional athlete, one that was met with an outpouring of support and empathy from fans.</p>
<p>Teammates rallied around Osuna as well. When he returned to the mound two days later and <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/osuna-strikes-out-the-side/c-1539432283" target="_blank">struck out the side</a>, his familiar knock-knock routine with Russell Martin was replaced by a heartfelt hug and what appeared to be words of encouragement. It was a small but sincere gesture of kindness that resonated with both fans and casual observers, proving that even on the field, some things are bigger than the game itself.</p>
<h4><strong>5. Hey Now, You’re An All-Star</strong></h4>
<p><em>Justin Smoak’s All-Star Appearance, July 17<sup>th</sup></em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1600014183" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p style="text-align: left">During his first two seasons with the Jays, Justin Smoak played the role of whipping boy for fans. His subpar offensive statistics and propensity to strike out made him a standout – and not in a good way – on a team otherwise known for its offensive prowess. In fact, Smoak’s major-league career had never lived up to the expectations he set as a prospect who once headlined a trade for Cliff Lee. Thus, when it was announced in July 2016 that the Jays had signed Smoak to an extension, fans asked aloud “why?”</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Smoak himself answered that question by slashing .294/.360/.575/.936 and smashing 23 home runs during the first half of the season, garnering his first All-Star nod as the American League’s starting first baseman.</p>
<p>The unlikely All-Star did not disappoint. Smoak knocked an 0-2 fastball from Pat Neshek past a diving Zack Cozart for a single in the second inning. He then walked in the fourth before being pulled from the game.</p>
<p>Smoak <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/smoaks-ascent-unlikely-star-began-simple-question/" target="_blank">credits a trip to a sports psychologist</a> for sparking his turn-around. Whether or not he can continue to shine remains to be seen. But there is little doubt that his breakthrough performance – and his 1.000 All-Star OBP – was the highlight of the Jays’ season.</p>
<h4><strong>6. Stadium Delirium: Part One</strong></h4>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/pearces-walk-off-grand-slam/c-1657068783?tid=240570844" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p><em>Steve Pearce Walk-Off Grand Slam, July 27<sup>th</sup> </em></p>
<p>A rare Thursday afternoon game turned into an unpredictably raucous affair that could easily have been one of the most frustrating losses of the season. Instead, it turned into one of the most exhilarating wins.</p>
<p>Trailing the Athletics 3-1 in the fifth inning, John Gibbons was ejected by home plate umpire Will Little for arguing balls and strikes from the bench. A few pitches later, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raWvmaFo5YY" target="_blank">Stroman was tossed as well</a> for comments he was making with regards to the strike zone and, before he could even get a word in edgewise on behalf of his pitcher, Martin also got the boot. The affair was punctuated by an angry Stroman being restrained by DeMarlo Hale. The entire thing was utterly absurd – and seemed indicative of how the afternoon would unfold.</p>
<p>Then the real mayhem ensued.</p>
<p>Trailing by one run in the bottom of the ninth, Kendrys Morales jacked his second solo shot of the afternoon to send the game into extra innings. After a three-up three-down inning by Osuna, the Jays managed to load the bases with two outs in the bottom of the tenth.</p>
<p>Up to the plate stepped Steve Pearce. The result? Sheer mayhem.</p>
<h4><strong>7. Stadium Delirium: Part Two</strong></h4>
<p><em>Steve Pearce Walk-Off Grand Slam, July 30<sup>th</sup> </em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1668307883" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>Steve Pearce certainly has a flair for the dramatic.</p>
<p>Just three days after his heroics against the Athletics, Pearce once again rocked the Dome with yet <em>another</em> walk-off grand slam to cap off the biggest ninth-inning comeback in Blue Jays’ history.</p>
<p>Toronto was trailing by six runs entering the ninth when the rally began. After Kevin Pillar hit a two-run homer, Rob Refsnyder followed up with a double. Then subsequent singles by Ezequiel Carrera and Russell Martin cut the Angels’ lead to three. Kendrys Morales drew a walk to load the bases and bring up Steve Pearce.</p>
<p>The result? Sheer mayhem. Again.</p>
<p>It was the first time any player had hit two walk-off grand slams in the same week. It was also the first time a pitcher had given up two in the same week. The unlikely hurler, Bud Norris, had also given up a game-ending slam to former Blue Jay Edwin Encarnacion earlier in the week.</p>
<h4><strong>8. Slip-Sliding Away</strong></h4>
<p><em>Darwin Barney’s Swim-Slide to Third, September 11<sup>th</sup> </em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/barneys-unusual-slide/c-1826863583?tid=6479266" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p>We’ve all been there – that awkward moment when we’ve tripped or fallen or walked into something and wished that no one was around to see it.</p>
<p>Darwin Barney had a moment like that in a game against the Baltimore Orioles. Barney hit a sure double into right-center field, but when Adam Jones went to throw the ball into the infield, it slipped out of his hand. Barney seized the chance to advance to third, trying to finish off the play by sliding head-first into third base.</p>
<p>Except, Barney didn&#8217;t exactly execute a slide. It was more of a belly flop that landed short of the base, leaving Barney to do his best Michael Phelps impression and “swim” his way to third. It is safe to say that Barney won’t be winning any awards for grace any time soon.</p>
<h4><strong>9. Now You See It, Now You Don’t</strong></h4>
<p><em>Ryan Goins’ Hidden Ball Trick, September 22<sup>nd</sup> </em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"> <iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/must-c-goins-hidden-ball-trick/c-1844923483?tid=11493214" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p>In an utterly meaningless game, Ryan Goins provided a touch of magic. Twice.</p>
<p>Yankees’ third baseman Todd Frazier led off the third inning with a double. With one out, Jacoby Ellsbury hit a drive to deep right field, which was caught by José Bautista, who threw the ball into Goins at second. That’s when Goins played a trick.</p>
<p>After pretending to toss the ball back to the mound, Goins hid the ball in his glove and stood around the base, quite nonchalantly. When Frazier stepped off, Goins quickly applied the tag, much to the dismay of Frazier – and the delight of Jays’ fans.</p>
<p>Goins wasn’t quite done awing the crowd. For his second act, Goins <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/goins-6th-inning-grand-slam/c-1844996183" target="_blank">launched a grand slam</a> off of Masahiro Tanaka to give the Jays an 8-1 lead.</p>
<p>The win itself may have been meaningless, but it was sure fun to watch.</p>
<h4><strong>10. Farewell To A Legend</strong></h4>
<p><em>José Bautista’s Final Game in Toronto, September 24<sup>th</sup> </em></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/HLQCgO1nizs?ecver=1" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p>How do you say goodbye?</p>
<p>After nearly ten years of magic, the José Bautista era in Toronto was coming to an end. It was not the fairy-tale ending any of us wanted. Our beloved icon – the former home run king, he of the bat flip and hop-skips and chirps down the first base line, one of the most exciting players in baseball when at his pinnacle – was most assuredly playing his last game in a Blue Jays’ uniform at home after enduring an incredibly disappointing season. Though neither Bautista nor the team could state it publicly, they knew his contract option would not be picked up for 2018. The fans knew it, too. And they wanted to somehow mark the occasion. To say goodbye.</p>
<p>On that sweltering day, a sold-out crowd watched Marcus Stroman warm up in a vintage Bautista jersey. They cheered when Bautista – while his teammates stayed back &#8211; jogged from the dugout to take his place in right field. They sang “José! José! José José” every time he stepped to the plate with Usher’s “OMG” blaring from the stadium speakers – a throwback to his 2010 54-home run season.</p>
<p>And then, in the top of the ninth, John Gibbons called José back to the dugout, replacing him with Ezequiel Carrera. As he made his way back to the dugout, stopping to hug teammates before saluting the crowd, it’s difficult to imagine there was a dry eye in the house.</p>
<p><em>That’s</em> how you say goodbye.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"> *                    *                    *</p>
<p>As we say goodbye to 2017, cheers to you and yours. May you – and the Blue Jays – have a fantastic 2018!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>A Blue Jays Fan&#8217;s Letter to Santa Claus</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/24/a-blue-jays-fans-letter-to-santa-claus/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/24/a-blue-jays-fans-letter-to-santa-claus/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Dec 2017 13:43:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14732</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Santa Claus North Pole H0H 0H0 Canada Dear Santa, Can you believe that another year has nearly come and gone? I know you and the elves have been incredibly busy the last twelve months preparing for this very day, and so perhaps you haven’t really paid much attention to what has transpired in 2017 (aside [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Santa Claus<br />
North Pole H0H 0H0<br />
Canada</p>
<p>Dear Santa,</p>
<p>Can you believe that another year has nearly come and gone? I know you and the elves have been incredibly busy the last twelve months preparing for this very day, and so perhaps you haven’t really paid much attention to what has transpired in 2017 (aside from keeping track of those who have been naughty or nice, of course) but, frankly, this year can’t end soon enough.</p>
<p>As a matter of fact, this year has been so dreadful that I along with many others have already turned our attention towards 2018. You see, I am a baseball fan. More specifically, I cheer for the Toronto Blue Jays (I assume you do as well, Santa, given that nearest inhabited place to the North Pole is Alert, Nunavut) and this past season can only be described as abysmal. After back-to-back appearances in the ALCS, a season in which the Jays never once reached .500 (they were 0-for-9 in attempts to break even and were outscored 73-24 in those games) was fraught with frustration and disappointment.</p>
<p>The only good that came of last season is that it cast a spotlight on those areas in which the team must improve if it wishes to contend in 2018. This is the refrain we hear from management (presumably at the behest of ownership), but the road to the postseason is littered with landmines. The New York Yankees, who were surprisingly good last season despite being in the midst of their own mini-rebuild, became that much better when they added the NL MVP to their roster. The Los Angeles Angels added Japanese sensation and double-threat Shohei Othani, and the Red Sox and Astros will once again be tough to beat. If the Blue Jays are going to have a real shot at a wild card berth this upcoming season, they must improve their core roster.</p>
<p>This is where you come in, Santa. Now, I understand that you have more important things to worry about this time of year. Children all around the world are will dream of dancing sugar plums in anticipation of your visit. But, if you could indulge me, you would be joy to countless Jays’ fans. The Jays’ front office is adamant that the team contend in 2018 – the final year of superstar Josh Donaldson’s contract. If they are serious about making a run at the playoffs there is some heavy lifting to be done, and that’s where you come in. So, here it is, Santa. My off-season wish list:</p>
<h4>Starting Rotation</h4>
<p>After having used just seven starting pitchers for all of 2016, the Jays sent fourteen different starters to the mound last season. With the exception of Marcus Stroman, the entire rotation as set on Opening Day either suffered injury or struggled greatly for an extended period of time. The result was a revolving door of test subjects and reclamation projects – and none of them were quite good enough.</p>
<p>As things currently stand, Joe Biagini is slated to be the Jays’ fifth starter. Every indication last season was that, while he filled in admirably, he still has some work to do if he is to be a major-league quality starting pitcher and ideally he would provide depth next season.</p>
<p>The Jays have already missed out on signing C.C. Sabathia and, truth be told, it won’t be easy for the front office to convince a free agent to sign north of the border. But Yu Darvish would look awfully nice in a Jays’ uniform. Now, I know he’s not the same pitcher who finished second in Cy Young voting in 2013 – both his K/9 and HR/9 rates in 2017 were the worst they’ve been in his major-league career and his prior Tommy John surgery is a concern, but he is a far better option than any the Jays currently have in-house. And he would only cost money – having been traded during the season, he was not eligible for a qualifying offer and thus the acquiring team would not have to give up a draft pick. He’s projected to receive a contract in the neighbourhood of six years, $160 million. It would be tremendous, Santa, if you could convince Jays’ ownership to ante up and make an offer that he can’t refuse.</p>
<p><strong><em>Corner Outfield:</em></strong> As was the case last year, the Jays are once again in need of outfielders. The unceremonious departure of franchise icon José Bautista has left a hole in right field (and in the hearts of fans) and the tandem of Ezequiel Carrera and Steve Pearce in left leave little to be desired.</p>
<p>The Jays do have Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Alford poised to contribute in 2018, but if the Jays are serious about contention they must add at least one quality major-league outfielder to their roster.</p>
<p>There are two big names available, Santa, and either one would do. Free agent Lorenzo Cain hit .300/.363/.440 with 15 home runs, 27 doubles and 26 stolen bases, which would almost assuredly land him in the lead-off spot. His 5.6 WARP was the eighteenth best in all of baseball last season (the closest Blue Jay to that mark was Josh Donaldson at 3.79, and that was with him missing 49 games, so that will tell you something about how the rest of the team fared last year). Cain would cost money (he’s projected to snag a four-year, $70 million contract) plus a second-round draft pick, and there is the issue of whether or not his speed can be maintained into his thirties. But don&#8217;t let the age fool you. He&#8217;s still a worthy pickup.</p>
<p>The other big target out there is the Marlins’ Christian Yelich. Simply put, he&#8217;s young, he&#8217;s controllable, and he&#8217;s a stud. Yelich possesses speed, patience, and power and, at just twenty-five years of age, should be a star for the length of his contract &#8211; which is very team-friendly, I might add. He put up a line of .282/.369/.439 last season with 18 home runs and 36 doubles. The only catch is that the tire-fire that is the Marlins will not part with him unless they receive a hefty return. The Jays would likely have to part with the likes of Bo Bichette, and I&#8217;m not certain they are willing to do so. But Yelich is a known commodity as opposed to the uncertainly that accompanies any prospect, even one as promising as Bichette. All I am hoping for here, Santa, is that you convince Ross Atkins to give it some serious thought.</p>
<p>I realize that I am essentially asking for the moon here, but, you see, there is a sense of urgency. As I am sure you are aware, it is likely Josh Donaldson&#8217;s final season in Toronto and, quite frankly, it would be a travesty if his superstar talents were wasted this year. If the powers that be are adamant about keeping him, they must build the best team possible around him.</p>
<p>Now, Santa, I am going to ask for one more thing, and this one isn&#8217;t easy. If management is unable to put a JD-worthy team on the field next season, then please deliver a package of players to the Jays&#8217; brain trust that will convince them to trade him and hit the reset button for 2019/2020. It will not be a popular decision with the masses, but if they can&#8217;t win with him next year and can&#8217;t re-sign him, trading him now would be more palatable than letting him walk for free. I think I speak for many fans when I say that I am willing to concede 2018 if it means renewed hope for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>I understand if you can&#8217;t deliver on my requests as they are quite lofty. But if you could bring Jays&#8217; fans a gift sometime soon, it would go a long way to quelling some of the angst that is beginning to build. Safe travels tonight, Santa. I&#8217;ll be sure to leave out milk and cookies for you &#8211; and carrots for the reindeer.</p>
<p>Your friend,</p>
<p>Jenn</p>
<p>P.S. I asked you for this last season, but you kind of dropped the ball, so I am asking you again. Please give us the gift of a healthy Devon Travis next year. He has all the tools to hit near .300 with some pop and after struggling so much through injury, he really deserves a shot at playing for a full season.</p>
<p>P.P.S. One more thing. For the love of candy canes, please let us never hear the word &#8220;blister&#8221; again.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo &#8211; Rob Kinnan-USA Today Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The 3 Best and Worst Player Performances of the Second Half</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/the-3-best-and-worst-player-performances-of-the-second-half/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/11/the-3-best-and-worst-player-performances-of-the-second-half/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Oct 2017 10:52:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After the exhilaration of the past two postseason appearances, the Blue Jays’ 2017 campaign can only be described as a colossal disappointment. While it’s inevitable that a playoff team will eventually fall short of October baseball at some point, the Jays were built and marketed as a team in contention. In fact, most baseball pundits [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After the exhilaration of the past two postseason appearances, the Blue Jays’ 2017 campaign can only be described as a colossal disappointment. While it’s inevitable that a playoff team will eventually fall short of October baseball at some point, the Jays were built and marketed as a team in contention. In fact, most baseball pundits predicted a second straight wild card berth for the Jays, making the 2017 season – during which Toronto never once reached the .500 mark and were last in the American League East until after the final game of the season – a particularly bitter pill to swallow.</p>
<p>Without question, a number of circumstances conspired to derail this team. Injuries alone decimated the roster; a team cannot lose its best hitter for 43 days and the reigning ERA champ for all but eight starts without it taking a toll. It’s not as though other teams didn’t suffer their fair share of injuries, but perhaps what this season exposed most was Toronto’s primary weakness: its lack of depth.</p>
<p>Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney played 143 and 129 games respectively and, while both are suitable as backups, they are not meant to be everyday players. The precipitous dropoff in quality starters was made apparent when the likes of Mike Bolsinger, Cesar Valdez, Tom Koehler, Mat Latos, Nick Tepesch and a host of others made their way into the rotation.</p>
<p>Add to this the fact that several players performed below expectations and the Jays were never really in the playoff conversation. They scored the fewest runs in the American League with a -91 run differential – 22<sup>nd</sup> in all of baseball and 12<sup>th</sup> in AL. It’s not easy to win ballgames when you don’t score more runs than your opponents.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that the entire roster was a disappointment this season. Justin Smoak and Marcus Stroman had stellar years overall. Back in July, I explored what I felt were the <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/13/blue-jays-mid-season-report-card-the-standouts/" target="_blank">three best</a> and the <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/16/the-3-most-disappointing-player-performances-in-the-blue-jays-first-half/" target="_blank">three most disappointing</a> player performances of the first half of the season. Now that the dust has settled and general manager Ross Atkins has given his postmortem on the season, here are my best and worst of the second half.</p>
<p><strong>THREE STANDOUTS OF THE SECOND HALF</strong></p>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada</strong></p>
<p>Marco Estrada’s 2017 campaign can only be described as a roller coaster ride. His April and May were excellent, during which he posted a 3.15 ERA over eleven starts, holding batters to a .226/.276/.406 slash line and a .682 OPS. His next eleven starts were a virtual disaster. During this span he pitched 15.7 innings fewer in the same number of starts, with batters hitting .305/.393/.549/.942, causing his ERA to soar to 7.86 over those eleven starts. This incredibly frustrating performance landed Estrada on my previous most disappointing player performances list.</p>
<p>The master of the changeup rebounded nicely during his final eleven starts of the season, with an ERA of 4.59 and an opponents’ slash line of .246/.303/.448/.751 – not great, but far improved over his performance in June and July. Moreover, his September was stellar save for his last start.</p>
<p>It should be noted that Estrada induced fewer whiffs with his changeup and curveball in 2017 than his previous two seasons with the Jays. Given that the changeup is his bread-and-butter pitch, one hopes that he is able to regain its mastery. It is possible that he lost some feel for it this season, which would help explain his struggles.</p>
<p>Estrada admitted that his mid-season slump was <a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/256364896/blue-jays-marco-estrada-reflects-on-struggles/" target="_blank">due to worry regarding an undisclosed personal issue</a> that is now behind him, as seemingly are the back issues that have previously plagued him. The Jays are banking on Estrada returning to form, having inked him to a one-year, $13-million deal that suggests the club intends to contend in 2018. Assuming that Estrada&#8217;s issues are a thing of the past, one can reasonably expect him to return to form next season. If nothing else, the signing helps to solidify next year&#8217;s starting rotation, meaning one less thing the front office has to address this off-season.</p>
<p><strong>Dominic Leone</strong></p>
<p>The bullpen as a whole was a pleasant surprise in 2017. Ryan Tepera and Danny Barnes had outstanding seasons (as did Aaron Loup, not that anyone ever wants to acknowledge that fact), while Matt Dermody and Carlos Ramírez were excellent down the stretch. However, it was the performance of Dominic Leone that stood out as one of the top performances of the second half.</p>
<p>Leone was claimed by Toronto off waivers last off-season and was initially sent to Buffalo, but was recalled April 2nd due to the injury to Roberto Osuna. Despite popping back and forth between Toronto and Buffalo, his season was excellent overall: 70.1 innings pitched (the most in his career) over 65 games with an ERA of 2.56, a DRA of 2.81, a WHIP of 1.05, and 1.8 WARP. His second half was, however, particularly good.</p>
<p>From the beginning of July to the end of September, Leone appeared in 32 games. In 32.2 innings, he held batters to a slash line of .203/.256/.339 with an ERA of just 1.93, giving up just 24 hits and eight walks (a WHIP of 0.994) &#8211; which is by far and away the best reliever performance from July onward.</p>
<p>One reason for his success this season appears to be the increased use of his cutter, which he threw 36.0% of the time this season, while decreasing the use of his slider by nearly fifty percent over previous years. The result has been more soft contact and less hard contact on batted balls.</p>
<p>Relievers are volatile by nature and there is no way to predict how one might perform from one season to the next. Can Dominic Leone be just as good in 2018? That remains to be seen, but it&#8217;s certain he&#8217;s earned himself a spot in the bullpen out of spring training.</p>
<p><strong>Teoscar Hernandez</strong></p>
<p>I realize I might be getting ahead of myself here, but if Teoscar Hernandez can provide something close to his production this past September over the course of a full season, then he may be one less question to be answered by the Jays’ front office this winter. It is obvious that two corner outfielders are necessary. The <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2017/10/03/blue-jays-will-not-bring-bautista-back-for-2018-gm-ross-atkins-confirms.html" target="_blank">departure of José Bautista</a> from right field and the mess that is the platoon of Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera in left field make it necessary for management to address these two positions.</p>
<p>In 26 games (95 plate appearances) after his roster expansion call-up from Buffalo, Hernandez posted an impressive .261/.305/.602 slash line with an OPS of .908 and TAv of .302. He set a Jays’ record for rookies in September by bashing eight home runs and his 0.7 WARP was seventh-best among hitters all Jays’ hitters, with only Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak and Russell Martin significantly higher – which is crazy given that he had so many fewer at-bats.</p>
<p>There is, however, the matter of Hernandez’s 37.9% strikeout rate. Entering his age 25 season, Hernandez is still quite raw. Perhaps eager to impress his new team in what was most definitely an extended audition for a spot in next year’s starting lineup, Hernandez may have been pressing at the plate. His swing percentage on balls both outside and inside the zone increased by at least eight percent, while his overall contact rate decreased by nearly two percent over 2016.</p>
<p>Hernandez’s strong September means he’s the front-runner for a corner outfield position going into spring training. One must assume that Anthony Alford is less ready and that Dalton Pompey has fallen behind both on the depth chart. One must also assume that the front office won’t rest on their laurels and will actively seek two outfielders this off-season and that Hernandez will have to earn his spot on the 25-man this spring. Regardless, his performance demonstrated that he is a viable option who can provide precisely what the Jays were missing all season in the corners: a strong bat and solid defense.</p>
<p><strong>THREE MOST DISAPPOINTING PLAYERS OF THE SECOND HALF</strong></p>
<p><strong>Roberto Osuna</strong></p>
<p>Perhaps it is unfair of me to criticize a player who very bravely opened up the discussion about mental health when he disclosed feelings of anxiety that kept him out of a mid-June game against the Royals (and which may have interfered with his performance). But this is about player performance and there is no doubt that Roberto Osuna&#8217;s performance was a disappointment during the second half of the season.</p>
<p>After an injury-shortened spring training and a rocky April that included three blown saves, Osuna successfully converted 22 straight saves despite a loss in fastball velocity, culminating in his first All-Star appearance. One of the few bright spots, I included him among the three best player performances of the first half.</p>
<p>Things fell apart for Osuna in the second half. Unable to get a feel for his fastball from the start of the season, Osuna turned to a heavy reliance on his cutter which could only get him so far. The league figured him out quickly and the result was seven blown saves in the second half.</p>
<p>There were some positive takeaways from Osuna&#8217;s season. His HR/FB ratio is nearly half of what it was last season, while his K/BB and DRA drastically improved as well. The thing is, all that anyone is going to remember from the second half of his season &#8211; given that his role is to close out games &#8211; is the blown saves. Osuna himself <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-osuna-vows-get-back-fastball-2018/" target="_blank">admits that his season was a disappointment</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Joe Biagini</strong></p>
<p>A lot was asked of Joe Biagini this season. After making fourteen relief appearances (with an ERA of 3.38, holding opponents to .227/.282/.303) to begin the season, Biagini was thrown into the starting rotation necessitated by injuries to, well, nearly everyone. Fans and front office alike were truly rooting for him, hopeful that he would be the solution to the fifth starter problem. Instead, Biagini struggled to the tune of a 5.60 ERA over eleven starts with opponents batting .268/.318/.424.</p>
<p>He did not fare better in the second half. Once again pitching out of the bullpen, Biagini&#8217;s ERA remained well above five and he was eventually sent to Buffalo with the goal of stretching him out properly to give him another shot in the rotation.</p>
<p>In his final seven starts of the season, Biagani made it past the fifth inning only twice. Batters hit .296/.356/.496 with an OPS .852 while his ERA hovered just below six, leaving many to ponder whether his most effective role moving forward is out of the bullpen.</p>
<p>Biagini will no doubt be afforded a chance to earn a spot in the rotation next spring training. As it stands, the Jays only have four starters and one cannot predict if Sanchez&#8217;s blister issues will once again flare up. Unfortunately for Biagini, his chance to impress was that second shot in the rotation during the latter part of the season. His difficulty in making the adjustment means the front office will need to look for other alternatives this off-season.</p>
<p><strong>José Bautista</strong></p>
<p>There is a particularly painful truth that is completely independent of the emotions felt during José Bautista&#8217;s final game in Toronto, and that is this: he had, perhaps, the most disappointing season of all.</p>
<p>By virtually all statistical measures, the 2017 season was the worst of Bautista&#8217;s career as a Blue Jay. He hit a paltry .203/.308/.366 with the lowest BB% (12.2) and highest K% (24.8) since he was acquired from the Pirates. His 0.9 WARP is higher than last year&#8217;s total only because he played 41 more games. And, to be frank, that&#8217;s a part of what made this season so incredibly frustrating.</p>
<p>Two injuries derailed Bautista&#8217;s 2016 season. Tales of his throwing arm&#8217;s demise were already widespread by that point. But along came the World Baseball Classic, and Bautista appeared to have recaptured some of the Joey Bats of old. This <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/watch-jose-bautistas-arm-breaks-colombian-hearts-in-world-baseball-classic/" target="_blank">throw from left field</a> against Columbia and this <a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/jose-bautista-world-baseball-classic-home-run-dominican-republic-canada-game-pool-c/arqnevcnt1691mc4650izt076" target="_blank">monster of a home run</a> at Marlins Park had many declaring that the José Bautista had indeed returned to form.</p>
<p>It was not to be. Instead, Jays fans witnessed the decline of an icon that only got worse as the season continued. He batted .234 in the first half compared to .165 in the second, with fewer home runs, fewer walks and nearly the same number of strikeouts. It became obvious that he just couldn&#8217;t catch up to the fastball and his reputation for having an eye at the plate seemed to have eluded him.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s no surprise that the Blue Jays did not pick up his $18-million option for next season. Nor is it a surprise that Bautista&#8217;s not ready yet to hang up the cleats. What <em>is</em> upsetting is that Bautista maintains that he <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/despite-season-bautista-intends-play-somewhere-2018/" target="_blank">wants to stay with the Jays</a> &#8211; and many fans would no doubt like to see him finish his career in a Toronto uniform. Unless he retires, that simply isn&#8217;t going to happen.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re like me, you in no way define the José Bautista era in Toronto by this past season. Instead, you&#8217;ll remember 54. You&#8217;ll remember back-to-back home run titles. You&#8217;ll remember the Bat Flip. You&#8217;ll remember skipping around the bases after being thrown behind. You&#8217;ll remember when José Bautista put this team on his back and carried it for years.</p>
<p>And when he returns for his Level of Excellence ceremony, you&#8217;ll have forgotten all about 2017.</p>
<p>Because, if we&#8217;re being honest, this was a season to forget. There were some great moments &#8211; Chris Coghlan&#8217;s leaping slide and Steve Pearce&#8217;s walk-off grand slams are foremost in my mind &#8211; but, ultimately, it was a season of frustration and futility. It&#8217;s difficult to fully appreciate individual performances when the team could not pull itself out of last place until game 162. If we&#8217;re looking for a silver lining here, it is this: the 2017 season exposed some glaring weaknesses with this team, ones that the front office will need to address if the Jays as a whole are to avoid a repeat performance next year.</p>
<p><i>Lead Performance © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>The 3 Most Disappointing Player Performances in the Blue Jays First Half</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/16/the-3-most-disappointing-player-performances-in-the-blue-jays-first-half/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Jul 2017 10:56:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The unofficial second half of the season got underway this past week with the Toronto Blue Jays sitting six games under .500, 8.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for first in the AL East and 5.0 games back of the second wild card spot. To say that this season has been a disappointment would be [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The unofficial second half of the season got underway this past week with the Toronto Blue Jays sitting six games under .500, 8.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox for first in the AL East and 5.0 games back of the second wild card spot. To say that this season has been a disappointment would be an understatement. Despite an aging roster (they are the oldest team in baseball with an average age of 30.4 years), this team was expected to compete for a playoff spot again this season. Instead, they have not once reached the .500 mark and are closer in the standings to being at the bottom of the American League than they are to being in a wild card position.</p>
<p>On paper, this team should be better than it has been thus far. What has transpired on the field however, save for a good month of May, has been fraught with frustration. Plagued by injury, a stunning lack of offense (they rank 26th in the league with 366 runs scored and have the second lowest batting average with runners in scoring position at .224), and poor defense (a team DE of .694, which is sixth worst in the majors), and this team&#8217;s performance has people talking about rebuilds.</p>
<p>That isn&#8217;t to say that no one is performing well this season &#8211; I wrote about my <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/13/blue-jays-mid-season-report-card-the-standouts/" target="_blank">top three player performances</a> of the first half two days ago. But no team that was expected to be in contention considers a mid-season retool without some major letdowns. Here are my three most disappointing player performances from the first half of the season.</p>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada – C-</strong></p>
<p>At this time last season, Marco Estrada was basking in the glow of his first All-Star appearance. His performance in 2016 earned him the role of this year’s Opening Day starter. It was expected that the change-up artist, who had seemingly figured things outs since being traded to Toronto by the Milwaukee Brewers, would continue to shine. What has since transpired has been a mystery.</p>
<p>After a decent start to the season, June and July have been absolutely disastrous for Estrada. In seven starts during that time frame, Estrada has pitched five or more innings just twice, having surrendered 34 runs over 31.1 innings pitched for an ERA of 9.46. Opponents are slashing .343/.429/.620 with an OPS of 1.049 against him in those two months.</p>
<p>Over the course of 101.0 innings over 18 games for the season, Estrada has a 5.17 ERA and 4.54 xFIP with a 1.44 WHIP. Although his 9.80 K/9 rate is the best it’s been since 2010, he is also walking more batters (3.48 BB/9) and giving up more home runs (1.51 HR/9) than he has in recent years.</p>
<p>What is most troublesome is Estrada’s elevated .325 BABIP – the highest in his major league career and well above his career average of .263. Estrada has always been able to defy the BABIP odds, and at one point last season was poised to post the lowest BABIP of the modern era. While some regression is to be expected, it’s nearly 100 points higher than last season.</p>
<p>Dylan Svoboda of BP Toronto has already taken a deep dive into what might be <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/10/whats-wrong-with-marco-estrada/" target="_blank">wrong with Estrada</a> and found that his money pitch – namely, his phenomenal changeup – is not only being hit by batters more than before, but is being hit hard. This is particularly problematic given that Estrada is relying on his changeup more than ever before.</p>
<p>When Estrada first ran into trouble this season, many speculated that he was experiencing back pain again, a problem that has plagued him for the last two seasons. Estrada insists there is nothing physically wrong with him, however, which leaves two possible causes: either Estrada has developed a mental block with regards to throwing his off-speed stuff, or the league has adjusted to him. Regardless of the problem, Estrada must find a way to adjust back in order to salvage what remains of his season – and to help the Jays salvage what’s left of theirs.</p>
<p><strong>Troy Tulowitzki – C</strong></p>
<p>When Troy Tulowitzki was traded from the Colorado Rockies to the Toronto Blue Jays in July of 2015, fans expected much from the superstar shortstop. Perhaps expectations were set too high. Tulowitzki had oft been injured throughout his career, but his career offensive numbers and reputation for stellar defense had fans salivating at what that would translate into within the confines of the hitter-friendly Dome.</p>
<p>We have yet to witness the prowess at the plate that Tulowitzki had been known for and, quite frankly, it appears as though those days are gone.</p>
<p>Disappointment struck early this season when Tulowitzki injured his hamstring and was placed on the 10-day disabled list near the end of April. That 10-day stint turned into 35 days, surpassing the 21 days that Tulo missed due to injury all of last season.</p>
<p>In the 54 games he has played, Tulowitzki is batting .250/.302/.398 and .242 TAv with just seven home runs. Oddly, Tulowitzki is striking out at a rate of just 13.2%, one of the lowest K% of his career. However, his walk rate of 6.6% is also much lower than his career norm.</p>
<p>If we take a closer look at things, we find that Tulowitzki is making less hard contact and more soft contact than ever before, hitting into fewer line drives (14.8%) and more ground balls (50.3%) than at any other season in his major league career.</p>
<p>Defensively, Tulowitzki hasn&#8217;t quite performed as expected, either. He&#8217;s committed seven errors already this season, after having just nine all of last year. Perhaps this is to be expected as well. The thirty-two year old has suffered leg injuries the past two seasons and likely is not one hundred percent healthy.</p>
<p>The upside to all of this is that Tulowitzki has shown signs of life at the plate the past fifteen games, during which he batting .291/.328/.564 with an OPS of .891. Five of his seven home runs have come in that time frame. And, there&#8217;s no denying the leadership that Tulowitzki provides both on and off the field. However, the money that he is owed through to the end of the 2021 season is egregious given the diminishing offensive and defensive value, leaving many asking whether or not the Jays could find a way to move him at the trade deadline.</p>
<p><strong>Josh Donaldson – B- </strong></p>
<p>It may seem odd that I’ve included Josh Donaldson in my top three disappointing player performances for the first half of the season, and certainly a grade of B- is not particularly poor. It’s just that so much more is expected of Donaldson that any drop-off in productivity is seen as a disappointment.</p>
<p>Donaldson absolutely raked in the nine games he played in April, when he hit .310/.429/.586 with an OPS of 1.015. Having made his way back from a calf injury suffered during spring training, he ultimately landed on the ten-day disabled list in mid-April, where he stayed for 43 days. It the first time in his career that he had been placed on the DL.</p>
<p>Since his return to the lineup, Donaldson is slashing .250/.373/.462 with an OPS of .836. These numbers are certainly not bad, but they are not good by Donaldson’s standards.</p>
<p>In eight games between June 27th and July 4th, Donaldson had just one hit and ten strike outs in 32 at bats. His struggles at the plate have likely stemmed from his struggle to regain strength in his legs. Though his walk rate is up slightly, he is also striking out (23.3%) at his highest rate since 2010. One wonders how differently the Blue Jays&#8217; first half might have gone had Donaldson been healthy and productive.</p>
<p>On the bright side, Donaldson appeared to find his swing in the series against Houston. He had six hits and six walks in sixteen at-bats. He also made several sensational plays at third base, suggesting that his legs are once again working for him. It would not make sense for the Jays to pull the plug completely on the 2017 season by trading Donaldson; but if they are to have any shot at salvaging the season, it is absolutely critical for Donaldson to return to form during the second half of the season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The 3 Best Player Performances in the Blue Jays First Half</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Jul 2017 10:00:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12315</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The first half of the Blue Jays’ 2017 campaign has been utterly disappointing. Thus, is should come as no surprise that their grade at the midpoint of the season is a D. Had they not gone 18-10 in May, this season would be a complete disaster. Entering the All-Star break with a 41-47 record, the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The first half of the Blue Jays’ 2017 campaign has been utterly disappointing. Thus, is should come as no surprise that their grade at the midpoint of the season is a D.</p>
<p>Had they not gone 18-10 in May, this season would be a complete disaster. Entering the All-Star break with a 41-47 record, the Jays find themselves 8.5 games out of first in the AL East and 5.0 games back of the second wild card position – closer to last place in the American League than they are to a playoff berth – with six teams ahead of them.</p>
<p>The mediocrity of the rest of the division is the reason the Jays still have a shot – albeit a long shot – at making the postseason for the third straight season. Baseball Prospectus puts their playoff odds at 7.1%, just ahead of the Baltimore Orioles despite trailing the Orioles by a game in the standings. Although injuries and a beleaguered offense are largely to blame for the Jays’ woes (they rank 29<sup>th</sup> in the league in batting average with runners in scoring position), they have also had less than reliable starting pitching (though some of that is owing to injury replacements) and relatively poor defense. The Jays currently <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1905977" target="_blank">rank 25<sup>th</sup> in defensive efficiency</a> (percentage of balls in play turned into outs) but drop to 26<sup>th</sup> when factoring in park adjustments. Broken down by batted ball type, they are middle of the pack when it comes to converting ground balls into outs (75.6%), but are second-last in the majors in turning fly balls into outs (83.8%).</p>
<p>Despite the mediocre performance of the team as a whole, there are certain players on this team who are performing at an exceedingly high level. Here’s a look at three players who have been exceptional.</p>
<h4><strong>Justin Smoak – A+</strong></h4>
<p>At thirty years of age, Justin Smoak is finally enjoying a break-out season. The former first round draft pick had demonstrated the ability to hit at every level except the major leagues, causing many to – rightfully so, at the time – denounce the Jays’ decision to sign him to a two-year extension in the middle of the 2016 campaign.</p>
<p>Entering 2017, Smoak was given the full-time first base job, then he took the opportunity and ran with it. Over the course of 87 games and 333 plate appearances, Smoak is putting up career numbers in nearly every offensive category. He is currently slashing .294/.360/.575 with a TAv of .308 and OPS of .936, which are all well above his career numbers. Although he is walking less frequently, he has struck out in just 19.2% at-bats – down from his career average of 23.4% and a far cry from his whopping 32.8 K% of last season. He has already surpassed his previous high of 20 home runs by three &#8211; on pace for a 40-home run season &#8211; and needs just three more RBI to reach another career best.</p>
<p>Simply put, Smoak has far exceeded all expectations to this point.</p>
<p>Whether or not Smoak’s new-found success is sustainable remains to be seen. It’s unusual for a player to figure things out in his thirties. But the All-Star starting first baseman has put in the work both on and off the field to facilitate this turnaround, beginning with a <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/smoaks-ascent-unlikely-star-began-simple-question/" target="_blank">visit to a sports psychologist</a>. He has also made adjustments with regards to his batting stance from the right and left sides of the plate, having come to the realization that the two need not be identical.</p>
<p>Whatever happens the remainder of the season, there is no doubt that Justin Smoak is the Blue Jays’ star player for the first half of the season.</p>
<h4><strong>Roberto Osuna – A</strong></h4>
<p>After starting the season on the 10-day disabled list due to an injury suffered during the World Baseball Classic, Roberto Osuna got off to a shaky start. He had three blown saves in April while experiencing a troubling drop in velocity.</p>
<p>As it turns out, there was absolutely no cause for concern.</p>
<p>Since April, Osuna has been absolutely lights out. On June 22<sup>nd</sup>, he picked up his 19<sup>th</sup> save, becoming the <a href="https://twitter.com/SNstats/status/877731666843680768" target="_blank">youngest pitcher in history</a> to record 75 saves. He then finished the first half having converted 21 consecutive saves, the most in the league among active closers (Zach Britton has 52 going back to 2016, but is not currently closing games for Baltimore following his injury). He was awarded the AL Reliever of the Month award for June.</p>
<p>Osuna credits the turnaround to <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/osunas-adjustments-lead-winning-al-reliever-month-award/" target="_blank">adjustments he has made</a> with regards to attacking the zone early, working with his four-seam fastball and cutter, mixing his pitches more, and locating better. Needless to say, the adjustments have worked.</p>
<p>His numbers this season are downright gaudy. Sporting a 2.06 ERA and 2.35 xFIP (ninth-best among relievers), Osuna has a walk rate of just 0.77 per nine, good for second-best in the league amongst relief pitchers, while striking out 12.09 batters per nine innings – up from 9.97% last season.</p>
<p>The insane thing is <em>how</em> he has improved his strike out rate. Osuna has an O-swing percentage of 47.3%, which is more than ten percent better than in his previous two seasons and is the highest among all pitchers in the majors with a minimum of 30 innings. This is due in part to increased use of his wicked cutter, a pitch he added to his repertoire last season that he has thrown 37.5% of the time this past month.</p>
<p>All things considered, there is no other reliever in baseball right now who I’d rather bring in with the game on the line than Roberto Osuna. He’s been simply sensational the first half of the season.</p>
<h4><strong>Marcus Stroman – A-</strong></h4>
<p>The one constant in the Blue Jays’ rotation this season has been Marcus Stroman. Due to both his own performance on the mound and that of his teammates, the larger-than-life pitcher has established himself as the ace of the staff. In 112.1 innings pitched over 18 starts, Stroman has a 3.28 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, to go with a ground ball rate of 60.9% which is second only to Lance McCullers of the Astros.</p>
<p>One of his newly-developed tools is his &#8220;rocking chair&#8221; delivery, employed to disrupt the timing of hitters. Whether or not the technique is having the desired outcome has <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marcus-stroman-has-his-own-rocking-chair/" target="_blank">yet to be determined</a>, but given that he is currently experiencing career-best numbers in several statistical areas, it would appear that, at the bare minimum, the new approach has not hindered him. In fact, Stroman&#8217;s numbers have been so good this season that many around baseball, including <a href="https://twitter.com/SouzaJr/status/884209609090764800" target="_blank">Rays&#8217; outfielder Steven Souza</a>, have been left wondering how he didn&#8217;t receive an All-Star nod.</p>
<p>The main potential concern is the length of his outings. In 18 starts, Stroman has pitched six innings or more just twelve times, with four of those starts lasting exactly six innings. In addition, Stroman&#8217;s HR/9 is 1.04, up slightly from 0.93 a season ago, resulting in a HR/FB rate of 18.1%, which is eleventh highest among qualified pitchers in the league. Still, Stroman has been good; he has been very good. When he takes the mound, one can expect that he&#8217;ll give his team a chance to win.</p>
<p>Check back soon for the first half disappointments.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Acquire Catcher Miguel Montero</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/03/blue-jays-acquire-catcher-miguel-montero/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/03/blue-jays-acquire-catcher-miguel-montero/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Jul 2017 14:37:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chicago Cubs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miguel Montero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12166</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays have announced the acquisition of catcher Miguel Montero and cash considerations from the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. C Miguel Montero and cash considerations acquired from Cubs in exchange for PTBNL or cash considerations. https://t.co/vb88Z4sebt &#8212; Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) July 3, 2017 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays have announced the acquisition of catcher Miguel Montero and cash considerations from the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">C Miguel Montero and cash considerations acquired from Cubs in exchange for PTBNL or cash considerations. <a href="https://t.co/vb88Z4sebt">https://t.co/vb88Z4sebt</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysPR/status/881875295850176512">July 3, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>To make room on the 40-man roster, outfielder Darrell Ceciliani, who suffered a shoulder injury in mid-May, has been transferred to the 60-day disabled list.</p>
<p>Montero was designated for assignment on June 28<sup>th</sup> after criticizing pitcher Jake Arrieta for his inability to hold runners during a 6-1 loss to the Washington Nationals. However, Montero has not thrown out any of the 31 potential base stealers who have run against him this season, so his criticism seemed awfully misplaced and resulted in him being let go. The Blue Jays will visit Wrigley Field and the Cubs on August 18th.</p>
<p>The acquisition signals an attempt by the Jays’ front office to bolster its dismal offense. The thirty-three year old switch-hitter is batting .286/.366/.439 with a .290 TAv and .338 BABIP in 44 games with the Cubs. He provides some much-needed depth at the catcher position and will replace Luke Maile as the backup to Russell Martin. Maile, for all his defensive skills, has had an abysmal time at the plate, slashing a paltry .115/.149/.188 with a .149 TAv.</p>
<p>According to <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/881879211157356550" target="_blank">Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports</a>, the Cubs are picking up the vast majority of the remaining ~$7 million of Montero’s $14 million contract. He becomes a free agent at the end of this season.</p>
<p>What this means for the Blue Jays&#8217; trade deadline plans is still unknown. They haven&#8217;t been playing like a team that deserves to be buyers, but with the rest of the AL in similar situations, a strong run before the All-Star break can change the entire view of things.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Beauty of Baseball and Learning to be Better</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/22/the-beauty-of-baseball-and-learning-to-be-better/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/22/the-beauty-of-baseball-and-learning-to-be-better/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 May 2017 15:22:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11091</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The beautifully complex game of baseball is unique in that it is ultimately a game of overcoming individual failures. It is a game in which the best hitters fail roughly sixty-five percent of the time and a pitcher is left atop a mound to dig deep for that last out. Individual errors are glaring and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The beautifully complex game of baseball is unique in that it is ultimately a game of overcoming individual failures. It is a game in which the best hitters fail roughly sixty-five percent of the time and a pitcher is left atop a mound to dig deep for that last out. Individual errors are glaring and potentially costly &#8211; and a player has no one to blame but himself.</p>
<p>It is for this reason that so many fall in love with &#8220;America&#8217;s Pastime&#8221;. Each and every one of us has been there – perhaps not on the field, but we have all struggled in our personal lives to accomplish goals, and we have all at one time or another failed. It is in that way that baseball mirrors life and it is for that reason that we find beauty in a player’s performance. For that gives us hope that we, too, may persevere and succeed. And when we watch a player succeed, it is joyous.</p>
<p>But every now and then, baseball reflects more than just our own lives. It provides a microcosm for society as whole. It is in those times that we must pause, reflect, and ask “how can we do better?”</p>
<p>This was true a few weeks ago when Baltimore Orioles’ center fielder Adam Jones spoke out about a spectator in Boston <a href="http://www.espn.com.au/mlb/story/_/id/19291263/adam-jones-baltimore-orioles-says-was-target-racist-abuse-fenway-park" target="_blank">who called Jones the N-word</a>. Let’s not be under any illusion here. I would imagine that the hurling of racial slurs at players of colour is more common than we want to believe it is – including in our own beloved city. What made this particular incident stand out was that Jones had finally had enough and was vocal about it (he also <a href="https://www.theplayerstribune.com/adam-jones-video-hate/" target="_blank">wrote about it for The Players&#8217; Tribune</a>). Against the backdrop of the current political climate in the United States, where race tension seems heightened even more than usual, Jones’ experience at a ballpark in Boston becomes broader issue.</p>
<p>On Tuesday night in Atlanta, Kevin Pillar provided another bigger-than-the-game moment when, angered by a quick-pitch, he yelled a homophobic slur at Braves’ pitcher Jason Motte. The epithet sparked understandable outrage, disappointment, and sadness amongst many fans of the game (<a title="Kevin Pillar Needs to Do Better" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/18/kevin-pillar-needs-to-do-better/" target="_blank">including one of Pillar&#8217;s biggest supporters, Gideon Turk</a>) and, naturally, those feelings were felt the deepest amongst members of the LGBTQ+ community.</p>
<p>After listening to Kevin Pillar <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/may/18/kevin-pillar-alleged-homophobic-slur-investigation-jason-motte" target="_blank">apologize for the incident</a>, there is no doubt in my mind that he is sorry for what happened, although I am unsure as to whether or not he understands the extent of the harm that may have been caused. To be quite honest, if that’s the case, he is not alone; numerous people wondered on social media why anyone other than Motte himself would be upset or offended.</p>
<p>The impact of hearing such a word used by anyone, let alone someone for whom you cheer (which can be a deeply personal thing), can be devastating for a number of reasons. For those who have been subjected to gay-bashing and physical assault for one’s sexual orientation, hearing that word used in any context can bring back memories and feelings of being unsafe. As someone who is not a member of the LGBTQ+ community, I cannot imagine what it must be like to be fearful to simply live my life, but I believe those who say they relived that emotional trauma Tuesday night. My own life experiences have taught me that words hurt more than we want to believe. Words have meaning. And once a word is out there, it can’t be taken back.</p>
<p>I wonder, too, about all of the young people who play baseball – or any sport, really – who have been pondering whether or not it is safe to come out of the proverbial closest and the message that this incident may have sent to them. Would Pillar’s use of that word make them feel less safe about coming out to their teammates? Would it cause them to feel even less welcome playing the sport that they love? How many might quit, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/bean-pillar-can-advocate-lgbt-inclusion-baseball/" target="_blank">as Billy Bean eventually did</a> (not to be confused with A&#8217;s President Billy Beane), because doing so is far more palatable than any one discovering their sexual orientation?</p>
<p>There is also the overarching issue of the culture of toxic masculinity that exists in professional sports. It was not lost on me that during their recent visits to Toronto, both the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland had players carry equipment to the bullpen in pink, feminized back packs and duffel bags that are clearly designed to be embarrassing because, of course, a man carrying something associated with femininity is hysterical. However, that&#8217;s simply the tip of the iceberg and is relatively minor within the construct of professional sports, where this type of behaviour is celebrated and where those who do not fit the traditional construct of machismo will, at best, be marginalized to the fringes. At worst, those players will be left out entirely. What does that say about those of us who cheer such actions from the sidelines? Is that the kind of masculinity we want to promote in our society?</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t know Kevin Pillar. I am unwilling to say anything about his character one way or the other but feel compelled to give him a chance to redeem his image. I understand if others are less willing to do so. We don&#8217;t all have to be on the same page about this.</p>
<p>But I do believe that this incident &#8211; like the one involving Adam Jones &#8211; provides one of those unique opportunities for us to take something that happened in a game and recognize it as being so much bigger than the game. It provides us with the opportunity to reach out to the LGBTQ+ community and not only offer our support, but examine ways in which society in general and sports in particular can provide genuine inclusivity.</p>
<p>The one thing that I would encourage Pillar to do is to ask himself why that particular word was his go-to when angered. I would go so far as to encourage everyone to examine the words that they use. I will admit that there is a word that sometimes comes to my mind when I witness someone doing something particularly stupid; the impact of using such a word was lost on me until someone took the time to have a conversation. (Though, if I&#8217;m being honest, I already knew it was not a nice word to use. I simply had never considered how my use of the word may affect others.)</p>
<p>No, the upset over what Kevin Pillar said is not about others being overly-sensitive. It is about empathy. It is about doing better in our own lives. Rather than dismiss other&#8217;s reactions as being over the top, ask genuine questions and actually listen to the answer. We could all stand to learn something by doing so.</p>
<p>This incident may have taken place on the field, but it was not about baseball. Ultimately, it was not even about Kevin Pillar. It&#8217;s about recognizing that the things we say can have unintended consequences. It&#8217;s about changing a culture for the better, both on and off the field. It&#8217;s an opportunity to once again see ourselves mirrored on the field.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s the beauty of baseball.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Call Up Top Prospect Anthony Alford from New Hampshire</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/19/report-blue-jays-call-up-top-prospect-anthony-alford-from-new-hampshire/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 19 May 2017 16:08:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11035</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays made a surprise roster move today, as it is being reported that they are going to call-up centrefielder Anthony Alford from the double-A New Hampshire Fishercats for tonight’s game against the Baltimore Orioles. BREAKING: Former Petal star Anthony Alford has been called up by the Toronto Blue Jays. He will join [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays made a surprise roster move today, as it is being reported that they are going to call-up centrefielder Anthony Alford from the double-A New Hampshire Fishercats for tonight’s game against the Baltimore Orioles.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Former Petal star Anthony Alford has been called up by the Toronto Blue Jays. He will join the team in Baltimore this afternoon.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jason Munz (@munzly) <a href="https://twitter.com/munzly/status/865589740866871296">May 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The twenty-two year old Alford has been absolutely raking this season. In 141 plate appearances over 33 games, he is slashing .325/.411/.455 with an OPS of .867. With nine stolen bases thus far this season, Alford provides speed on the base paths. After a lost 2016 due to injuries, there were some questions as to how Alford would handle the jump to AA New Hampshire, but he clearly has had no issues. He has an advanced approach at the plate and developing power.</p>
<p>Alford&#8217;s promotion comes in the wake of the two-game suspension of Kevin Pillar and the subsequent shoulder injury to Darrel Ceciliani, who suffered a partially dislocated shoulder on a home run hit during last night&#8217;s 9-0 victory over Atlanta. One would assume that his call-up is just for one game, as Pillar is due to return to the lineup tomorrow.</p>
<p>While some may wonder why the Blue Jays have called up their top upper minors prospect for a single game, with only Dwight Smith Jr., Jose Bautista, and Ezequiel Carrera on the roster, none of whom is a natural centerfielder, Alford makes sense. He is also already on the 40-man roster, so nobody will need to be waived in order to make room for the newest Jay. Also, as he was optioned back in March, the one day call up does nothing to his remaining options.</p>
<p>A former two-sport athlete, Alford abandoned football to pursue baseball full time. He was ranked as the number two Blue Jays prospect by BP preseason and 85th overall on <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160" target="_blank">the top 101 list</a>. In the <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-updated-may-11/#HBFM5D6f0yQ9su7Y.97" target="_blank">updated Baseball America list </a>(which came out May 11), Alford jumped all the way up to no 34 overall with his strong start.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s only for one game, but it should be exciting to watch a top prospect make his debut. </p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: Time to Get Back to Basics</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/17/this-week-in-blue-jays-get-back-to-basics/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/17/this-week-in-blue-jays-get-back-to-basics/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Apr 2017 13:53:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10273</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This week in Blue Jays has been, quite plainly, miserable. After being swept in a two-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers to begin their season at home, the Jays dropped three of four to their division rivals, the Baltimore Orioles, culminating in a 11-4 drumming on Sunday in where fans witnessed some of the worst [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week in Blue Jays has been, quite plainly, miserable.</p>
<p>After being swept in a two-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers to begin their season at home, the Jays dropped three of four to their division rivals, the Baltimore Orioles, culminating in a 11-4 drumming on Sunday in where fans witnessed some of the worst baseball this team has played in a long time.</p>
<p>To add injury to insult, starting pitcher J.A. Happ removed himself from the game in the fifth inning after experiencing what has been described as “elbow soreness” and will undergo an MRI today. This came mere hours after the announcement that last year’s American League ERA leader Aaron Sanchez had been placed on the ten-day disabled list to address a blister problem that has been plaguing him for the last two seasons. And that&#8217;s without mentioning that Josh Donaldson &#8211; who began the season with a slash line of .310/.429/.586 and a blistering wRC+ of 190 &#8211; re-aggravated a calf injury that had caused him to miss the majority of spring training, landing him his own ten-day DL stint.</p>
<p>Clearly, there is never a good time for a team to lose its top offensive player and two-fifths of its rotation, but considering how badly the Jays have been scuffling as a whole, any and all news that is negative is magnified under the lens of being a team in a deep last place hole.</p>
<p>Offensively, the Blue Jays, save for Donaldson, Kevin Pillar and Kendrys Morales, appear to be utterly lost at the plate, ranking dead last in the majors in batting average (.200). on-base percentage (.272), slugging (.290), runs (30), wRC+ (59) and WAR (-0.9). Five of their ten losses featured stellar pitching performances, allowing three runs or fewer, only to be wasted on an anemic offense.</p>
<p>All of this has left Jays’ fans shaking their heads with understandable frustration, trying to reconcile the fact that this team <em>should</em> be contenders for a wild card spot with what they are seeing on the field. This has left some fans asking “is it time to panic yet?” while others are wondering aloud “where does the team go from here?”</p>
<p>All this, just twelve games into the season.</p>
<p>The truth of the matter is this: too little of the season has transpired to determine in which direction this ship is going to ultimately sail. It is entirely possible that they will somehow turn their fortune around and look every bit the playoff contender that many pundits predicted them to be prior to the start of the season – these are, after all, good hitters with proven track records backed by one of the best starting five in baseball.</p>
<p>Conversely, it is also entirely possible that this lineup is not as good as it appeared on paper. Age-related decline is certain to be a factor, as is the fact that the roster provides little flexibility. Add in the extreme lack of starting rotation depth, and this could very well be a long and arduous season.</p>
<p>Whichever course this team ultimately takes, at this point in the season I know two things to be true: it is not yet time to panic and yet, the situation needs to turn around in a hurry.</p>
<p>Some fans have lamented the loss of Edwin Encarnacion, suggesting that his presence in the lineup would somehow bolster this offense. This ignores the fact that Encarnacion is traditionally a slow starter, as evidenced by the fact that he is batting .200/.333/.300 and has struck out in nearly a third of his plate appearances with Cleveland. There’s no doubt we would all rather have him in Toronto than playing for the team that denied the Jays a trip to the World Series, but to suggest his presence at this point would somehow magically mean the Jays’ would be better than 2-10 is a complete fallacy.</p>
<p>Others have suggested that the way to shake up the offense is to call up first baseman Rowdy Tellez, whose offensive prowess was on full display last season with the double-A New Hampshire Fishercats and who made a name for himself at spring training. That would be a tremendous amount of pressure put on a still-developing player who has had all of nine games in triple-A and who thus far is batting just .206/.270/.382. It would not be fair to Tellez, both in terms of his development and his mindset, to put that kind of pressure on him.</p>
<p>There are, of course, those who want a pound of flesh; namely, the firing of manager John Gibbons or hitting coach Brook Jacoby. Frankly, I cannot fathom how one can blame Gibbons for his team collectively hovering around the Mendoza line. One can draw more of a straight line between Jacoby and the team’s hitting woes but, in truth, a hitting coach’s greatest influence is on younger players. This is a team of veteran hitters who already have a well-established approach. They are who they are at the plate – a change in philosophy will not undo years of learned behaviour, particularly when it has proven to be successful in the past.</p>
<p>So, what is it that this team <em>can</em> do to right this ship?</p>
<p>They can get out of their own heads and get back to why they love the game of baseball. Loosen their grip on the bat, stop rushing defensive plays and slow things down. Because, right now, the frustration on the field is palpable, and that makes breaking out of a slump all the more difficult. We&#8217;ve seem them play some fundamentally bad baseball, but we&#8217;ve also seen some bad baseball luck &#8211; this team could easily be 6-6 had a few bounces gone their way. It may take one lucky bounce to set the ball rolling in their favour.</p>
<p>As for fans &#8211; I&#8217;m not here to tell you what to do with your fandom. You <i>should</i> be frustrated; you <em>should </em>be disappointed. It is possible to both support your team and talk in &#8220;what-ifs&#8221;; the two are not mutually exclusive. Depending on what transpires the next few weeks, it&#8217;s possible that we, too, will need to remind ourselves of why we love baseball. For it&#8217;s possible that what&#8217;s yet to come will be tough to take.</p>
<p>This team is better than what we&#8217;ve seen. We simply have yet to see it. Here&#8217;s hoping.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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