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Joe Biagini Avoided the Normal Reliever to Starter Transition Problems

Joe Biagini has been something of a revelation during his brief tenure in Toronto. Since being selected in the Rule Five draft, the quirky California native has done nothing but prove he belongs on a major league pitching staff. The only question is what role was best suited for the large righty. Last September, I argued that Biagini should be in the rotation due to his large repertoire and the success he was having on each pitch. Matt Gwin then went a bit deeper and showed how well Biagini’s offerings compare to some of the best pitchers in baseball, again suggesting that he start. Both of us (and plenty of other fans) were rewarded this week, as Biagini has begun a transition to the starting rotation.[1]

The results spoke for themselves, as Biagini allowed just a solitary unearned run on two hits while walking none and striking out four. However, there was some question about how his stuff would hold up moving from the bullpen to the rotation. While he has been a starter in the minor leagues, Biagini only has one season with any success, and that was one where his strikeout rate plummeted to a well-below-average 15.8 percent. As such, it was reasonable to question just how well his velocity would translate with a return to the rotation (starters typically pick up noticeable velocity when they move to the pen).

Biag velo

The chart above shows very little perceptible change in velocity between his time in the bullpen and his start on Sunday; the curve, change, and cutter are all within one mile per hour of his reliever velocity (in some cases harder). And while the fastball is over one mile per hour slower, it was still harder than a few of his individual outing average velocities coming out of the pen. His stuff holding up wasn’t just limited to velocity either.

mov

As you can see, every single pitch in Biagini’s arsenal was well within the margin of error of his season averages. The only pitch that had even slightly more noticeable movement was the cutter which had more depth and more movement to the arm side, making it an even better pitch.

That his velocity and movement didn’t take a dip after a move to the rotation is incredibly good news, as Biagini’s stuff has always been top notch in the pen. This starter version of Biagini would sit just behind Aaron Sanchez on this year’s STUFF report and last year would’ve ranked among the very best in baseball.

The other thing to watch out for was exactly how Biagini was going to use his stuff. As a reliever, he comes at hitters with a lot of hard stuff, flipping in curveballs and changeups only on occasion. That was clearly a bit different in his first start of the year:

Biag use

As you can see, Biagini decided to go with the curveball as his primary second pitch, with the changeup and cutter as clear tertiary options. The biggest change there was with two strikes. As a reliever, Biagini had thrown 66 pitches in two strike counts. Just ten of those were curveballs (15.1 percent). As a starter the hook was clearly his go-to strikeout offering, throwing six of them with two strikes out of sixteen two-strike counts (37.5 percent). Clearly it worked, as three of Biagini’s four strikeouts came on the hook.

It will be interesting to see if this continues into his next start (which should be Friday or Sunday against Seattle, depending on the health of Aaron Sanchez). His 19.5″ difference in vertical movement between the curve and fastball makes things very tough on hitters, especially with the cutter and change coming in right in the middle of that area. It leaves hitters with plenty of area to cover, and should make things easier as he navigates a lineup multiple times.

We should all be keeping a close eye on this going forward, as with the pending free agencies of Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano, there could be a few holes in the rotation. Being able to fill one of those spots on the cheap with Biagini would go a long way to helping the team manage payroll issues in 2018 and try to contend once again.

Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

[1]Even if it is only until J.A. Happ comes back from injury.

 

 

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