With their win against the Rangers on Sunday, Toronto is now set to face Cleveland in the best of seven ALCS. Both squads have a lot of talent, so as part of a series preview, I decided to break things down by position to see who might have the edge.
Catcher
Roberto Perez (.183/.285/.294, .218 TAv)
This wasn’t exactly the plan in Cleveland. First, it was supposed to be Yan Gomes, but he got hurt. Then Cleveland thought they had traded for Jonathan Lucroy, but he invoked his no-trade clause over 2017 playing time concerns. And so, the AL Central champions are left with Roberto Perez. Perez is a decent receiver and excellent at controlling the running game (50% CS in 26 attempts this year), but he really can’t hit. Yan Gomes returned on the final day of the year, but didn’t appear in the ALDS. He seems healthier, but Perez is still starting.
Russell Martin (.231/.335/.398, .252 TAv)
Martin has had his share of ups and downs in 2016, both at the plate and throwing out runners, but he still receives as well as anyone in the game which is a huge boost to this Blue Jays pitching staff. He also has hit for a lot of power in the second half. He still has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but has come up with a lot of big hits for the Blue Jays down the stretch.
Advantage: Big edge to the Blue Jays. Martin is the vastly superior hitter and at worst an equal defensive catcher. If Gomes can start, this becomes much closer.
First Base
Mike Napoli (.239/.335/.465, .262 TAv)
Cleveland pulled Napoli off the bargain shelf in the offseason, signing him to a one year, $7M contract after a down year in 2015. They were rewarded with a .262 TAv, 34 HRs, 101 RBI, and a consistent source of right-handed power. For most of Napoli’s career he has feasted on LH pitching, and while he still hit them well for average and on-base percentage, the bulk of his power production (27 of his HRs) this year came against righties. This will make it tougher for the Jays to play match up in the late innings. Napoli’s not a great defender anymore at first base (neither is Carlos Santana – they split between 1B and DH), but he isn’t awful either.
Edwin Encarnacion (.263/.357/.529, .291 TAv)
Edwin Encarnacion had another monster season in Toronto, as he played in 160 games for the first time in his career and set personal highs in nearly every offensive category (including strikeouts). He also has shown a bit of a love for the spotlight with three home runs already in this postseason, including the walkoff shot in the 11th inning of the wild card game. Encarnacion has even become a passable defender at first base. This is a true superstar.
Advantage: Big edge to the Blue Jays. Napoli had a great season, but Edwin Encarnacion is one of the better hitters in all of baseball.
Second Base
Jason Kipnis (.275/.343/.469, .264 TAv)
Kipnis is in the elite class of second basemen in the league (non-Cano division). He hits for power, takes a lot of walks, and is a high percentage basestealer. And while he has typically struggled against left-handed pitching, Kipnis turned things around this year and became a mostly platoon-neutral hitter. He has also turned himself into a decent defensive player, which was a knock in the earlier parts of his career.
Devon Travis (.300/.332/.454, .266 TAv)
Travis is doing his not-so-able-bodied best to put himself into that same class as Kipnis, as when he is on the field he is a true offensive threat. He has decent pop and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but a couple of injuries have taken their toll on the young keystone-sacker. He was forced to sit out for games two and three of the ALDS with a bone bruise in his knee, but has pronounced himself healthy and ready to go for Friday. Travis has also had his share of shaky defensive moments – particularly in the second half – but still grades out as an average defender at the position, in large part for his speed at turning double plays.
Advantage: Slight edge to Cleveland. Kipnis is a little better defensively, and Travis’ current health issues make him a bit of a question mark.
Shortstop
Francisco Lindor (.301/.358/.435, .270 TAv)
Lindor wasn’t even born the last time the Blue Jays won the World Series, but he’s already a superstar. He does pretty much everything well offensively as he makes very good contact, takes walks, steals bases, and has a little bit of power; and he’s an absolutely elite defender at shortstop. In fact, he would be in Gold Glove conversations if Andrelton Simmons didn’t play in the AL. Lindor also probably had a claim for last year’s Rookie of the Year Award over Carlos Correa, but lost in a close vote.
Troy Tulowitzki (.254/.318/.443, .253 TAv)
Tulowitzki had an absolutely awful start to the season, as he was still below the Mendoza Line well into May. But he turned things around and has been one of the Jays’ most productive hitters since. He still strikes out a lot but also takes a lot of pitches and hits for well-above average power for the position (24 HRs this year). Once he reaches base, Tulo has below-average speed but possesses good instincts which make him a solid baserunner. He also uses those instincts in the field, where he continues to be an excellent defensive shortstop and the anchor of the Toronto infield.
Advantage: Cleveland. As good as Tulo has been for the Blue Jays, Lindor has been that and more for Cleveland. He’s arguably even better defensively than his Toronto counterpart and is a very good hitter.
Third Base
Jose Ramirez (.312/.363/.462 .274 TAv)
Ramirez has been the most unexpected contributor this year for Cleveland. The 23-year old has tremendous contact skills (just 64 strikeouts) that he mixes with very good speed and a willingness to take a walk. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but can still make a team pay for a mistake (11 HRs this year). He’s a decent defender at 3B, but it’s not his natural position. He’s more of a middle infielder that is playing the corner out of necessity.
Josh Donaldson (.284/.404/.549, .315 TAv)
Josh Donaldson followed up his MVP season with one that was arguably even better. His power numbers were very similar, but he increased his walk total to 109, shattering his career-best of 76. A September hip injury has limited him in the home run department, though it clearly isn’t stopping him completely as he has nine hits and a walk in only 19 postseason plate appearances, including five doubles. He is also a top shelf defender at third base, making highlight plays with regularity.
Advantage: Big edge to Toronto. Ramirez had a great year and is a very solid player, but Josh Donaldson is one of baseball’s very best.
Left Field
Coco Crisp (.231/.302/.397, .254 TAv)/Brandon Guyer (.266/.372/.423, .286 TAv)
The AL Central champs run a strict platoon in left-field, with the switch-hitter Crisp in the lineup against righties and Guyer in there against southpaws. Crisp still makes decent contact and has average-ish pop, but where he was once an elite defender, he is now a liability. He can’t track balls the way he used to and his arm makes Shannon Stewart look like prime Jose Bautista. Guyer is the more dangerous of the two, as when he’s not leaning into pitches he absolutely owns left-handed pitching. In 151 PA against lefties, Guyer hit .336/.464/.557 so expect to see him in there against J.A. Happ. He’s a mediocre defender.
Ezequiel Carrera (.248/.323/.356, .238 TAv)
Is it the Autumn of Zeke? Carrera has been an unlikely playoff hero so far for the Jays with six hits and two walks in 18 plate appearances, including a home run. He has even thrown in a stolen base for good measure. That being said, his overall season numbers suggest that he may turn back into a pumpkin at any point. Despite his speed, Carrera is not a great baserunner or base stealer. However, he has turned himself into a very good corner outfielder, grading out as plus in both corners.
Advantage: Cleveland when Guyer is in, Jays when Crisp is in. The defence tips it to the Jays over Crisp, but Guyer has a big edge.
Center Field
Tyler Naquin (.296/.366/.498, .285 TAv)/Rajai Davis (.249/.306/.388, .238 TAv)
Naquin had a very strong rookie season on the strong side of the platoon, hitting 14 homers in 365 total plate appearances while mixing in a decent number of walks. On the downside, he strikes out a ton and had a poor finish to the season. He is also a horrible defensive center fielder with a DRS of -17 in just 105 games. Davis is his platoon partner and should be familiar to Blue Jays fans. He didn’t have his traditional lefty-mashing year (he actually fared worse against them in 2016) and still strikes out a lot, but he led the league in stolen bases (43 in 49 attempts) and chipped in 12 home runs. He’s also the same outfielder, with lots of foot speed but poor routes and a weak arm that make him a sub par defender.
Kevin Pillar (.266/.303/.376, .232 TAv)
Pillar swings at everything…and makes contact with much of it. He also somehow led the Blue Jays in doubles this year and can provide a boost at the bottom of the order when he gets hot, but still is just a .303 OBP hitter with limited power. Until he starts taking more walks he’s going to be limited offensively. He’s an excellent baserunner however, and an even better outfielder – one of the best in the game – which makes him a very viable everyday player.
Advantage: Push. Naquin is a very solid hitter, but he’s one of the worst defensive CFs in all of baseball. Davis is mediocre at both. Kevin Pillar can’t hit all that much, but if the ball stays in the park he’s probably going to catch it.
Right Field
Lonnie Chisenhall (.286/.328/.439, .260 TAv)
After coming up as a third baseman, Chisenhall found himself in the outfield out of necessity with all of Cleveland’s injury/suspension problems the last couple of years. Against the likely odds, he has turned himself into a very corner good defensive outfielder which often earns him the nod regardless of platoon splits. He’s a decent enough hitter who does nothing overly well, but isn’t bad at anything either. His only real weakness comes against left-handed pitching, so we could see the Jays go to Liriano or Cecil to face him if Guyer is already in the game.
Jose Bautista (.234/.366/.452, .270 TAv)
It’s been a tough year for Joey Bats as he has dealt with injury, poor performance, then injury again, all in his walk year. He turned things on at the end of the year though, hitting .262/.401/.469 after coming off the disabled list in August, including four home runs in his last eleven games. He also added two more long balls in Toronto’s first four postseason games, so he’s still a bat to be feared. Defensively it’s another story, where Bautista takes funny routes to the ball and the once legendary throwing arm has become something of a novelty, only coming out every once in a while.
Advantage: Slight edge to Toronto. Chisenhall is a much, much better defender and a decent hitter of his own, but Jose Bautista’s patience/power combo pushes him over the edge.
Designated Hitter
Carlos Santana (.259/.366/.458, .280 TAv)
No longer taking the beating from playing catcher every day, Santana’s bat has taken off. The power was always there, but the switch-hitter set a new mark this season with 34 home runs. He also has a tremendous batting eye and doesn’t strike out as much as he used to (K:BB of 1:1). His season numbers suggest a weakness against left-handed pitching, but his career numbers say the opposite. He’s really just a very good hitter. He can’t run and he’s a mediocre fielder when asked to play first base, but his bat is plenty good enough for neither of those things to matter.
Michael Saunders (.253/.338/.478, .273 TAv)
It’s hard to know what to make of Michael Saunders. He was a deserving All-Star in the first half, and has been so bad in the second that people can reasonably suggest he shouldn’t be playing. When he was good, it didn’t matter if he was facing a right or lefty; he was crushing both. When he’s been bad it still doesn’t matter, because he can’t hit regardless. His defence and baserunning have also suffered greatly due to last year’s knee injury, making him the constant choice to DH.
Advantage: Big edge to Cleveland. Carlos Santana is an elite-level bat, and Michael Saunders hasn’t been the same player for months now.
Starting Pitchers
Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA, 2.97 DRA, 1.34 STUFF)
Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA, 4.12 DRA, 1.21 STUFF)
Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA, 4.17 DRA, -0.46 STUFF)
Mike Clevinger (5.26 ERA, 4.79 DRA, 1.45 STUFF)
Coming into September nobody wanted to play Cleveland because of their starting rotation. But then Danny Salazar went down, followed by Carlos Carrasco, and all of a sudden Trevor Bauer went from being a very solid number four starter to a mediocre number two. They’re still no pushovers as they have Corey Kluber – a Cy Young front-runner who could be go on short rest in game four and seven if Cleveland is in trouble – and control-specialist Tomlin, but they’re not what they were. Clevinger has very good Stuff, but that will be a bullpen game and he will start only if he isn’t needed in relief in games one to three.
Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA, 4.40 DRA, -0.06 STUFF)
J.A. Happ (20-4, 3.18 ERA, 4.42 DRA, 0.32 STUFF)
Marcus Stroman (9-10 4.37 ERA, 3.67 DRA, 0.37 STUFF)
Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA, 3.77 DRA, 1.59 STUFF)
In contrast, the Jays rotation is firing on all cylinders. Estrada is back to baffling hitters with his fastball-change combo, Stroman has had a very good final six weeks, and Happ and Sanchez were among the league’s best for the entire year. Stroman and Sanchez are well beyond their previous workload limits, but they both still look very strong, Sanchez’ last start notwithstanding.
Advantage: Blue Jays. This is closer than it might seem if Kluber can perform well on short rest twice in a seven game series, but the Jays foursome is as good as it gets.
UPDATE: This initially had Cleveland using a three-man rotation, but apparently the club is actually going with a four man rotation in the ALCS. This tilts the advantage further in the Blue Jays favour.
Bullpen
Cody Allen (2.51 ERA, 2.50 DRA, 1.11 STUFF)
Andrew Miller (1.55 ERA, 1.31 DRA, 0.78 STUFF)
Bryan Shaw (3.24 ERA, 3.71 DRA, 0.37 STUFF)
Zack McAllister (3.44 ERA, 4.92 DRA, 0.90 STUFF)
Dan Otero (1.53 ERA, 2.29 DRA, -0.37 STUFF)
Jeff Manship (3.12 ERA, 4.70 DRA, -0.18 STUFF)
Cody Anderson (6.68 ERA, 4.73 DRA, 0.89 STUFF)
Ryan Merritt (1.64 ERA, 4.08 DRA, -1.02 STUFF
This is why Cleveland isn’t too worried about its rotation. Andrew Miller is completely unhittable, Allen and Shaw are very good, and McAllister/Otero are very able to give them quality innings. The addition of rookie southpaw Ryan Merritt was something of a surprise, as the Jays don’t have much in the way of left-handed hitting. There was a thought that Danny Salazar would be available as another late-inning weapon, but the club has announced that he isn’t quite healthy yet. That said, with Terry Francona’s willingness to deploy his ace relievers as early as the fifth inning, this group is a serious weapon.
Roberto Osuna (2.68 ERA, 3.52 DRA, 1.31 STUFF)
Jason Grilli (3.64 ERA, 4.04 DRA, 0.66 STUFF)
Joe Biagini (3.06 ERA, 3.86 DRA, 1.68 STUFF)
Brett Cecil (3.93 ERA, 3.32 DRA, 0.26 STUFF)
Francisco Liriano (4.69 ERA, 3.75 DRA, 0.45 STUFF)
Ryan Tepera (2.95 ERA, 4.11 DRA, 0.83 STUFF)
Scott Feldman (4.42 ERA, 3.97 DRA, 0.58 STUFF)/Aaron Loup (5.02 ERA, 4.41 DRA, 0.64 STUFF)
The much-maligned Blue Jays bullpen has really stepped up of late, putting up zeroes in a couple of extra-inning games and allowing the offense to deliver two dramatic wins. Osuna looks unbelievably sharp, and Biagini is right there with him. Cecil has had a very strong couple of months and Grilli should do well with some rest, but a lot of this unit’s strength will come down to the health of Francisco Liriano. It sounds like he’ll be good to go for game two, and he can be a big boost for multiple innings.
Advantage: Big edge to Cleveland. Not only will Francona have all those elite arms to deploy, he is also willing to use them in ways that makes sure the best guys are on the mound to try and get the biggest outs. The 2-3-2 format will make that a bit tougher, and may force Francona to go deeper with his starters than he’d like, but this group is still a force. Toronto isn’t in awful shape though.
Bench
Michael Martinez (IF), Brandon Guyer (OF), Rajai Davis (OF), Yan Gomes (C)
Guyer and Davis were covered above, and Martinez is basically just there as a pinch runner. Gomes could see a pinch hit spot at some point, or even take over behind the dish full-time if he continues to show full recovery.
Darwin Barney (IF), Justin Smoak (1B), Melvin Upton Jr (OF), Dalton Pompey (OF), Dioner Navarro (C)
The rosters haven’t been announced, but I’m assuming Pompey will be there for the ALCS as a pinch running specialist. Really though, Upton is the only guy likely to see much playing time (barring injury) as the first bat off the bench against left-handed pitching.
Update: Ryan Goins has earned a spot instead of Justin Smoak. This is likely due to some lingering worry over Travis’ knee, and not wanting to get stuck with Darwin Barney up in key spots as occurred in game 3 of the ALDS.
Advantage: Slight edge to Cleveland. Upton is useful vs LHPs, but not in the class of Guyer, or possibly even Davis. The multiple catchers also provide Cleveland with the flexibility to pinch hit/run for their catchers.
As you can see, this should be a very tight series. Both teams have stars and both have pitching. Expect this to go six or seven games.
Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Thanks to Dr. Mike Sonne for Stuff ratings.