Just three days ago, Toronto sports media were listening as John Gibbons answered questions about the decision looming regarding a starter for the Wild Card game. After mulling out loud for a few minutes Gibbons concluded with “we have to get their first.” With the Jays having lost two games since then on blown saves after brilliant starts, his comment seems particularly prescient.
A lot of the commentary lately, as it became increasingly clear the Red Sox were not going to cough up their division lead, has proceeded from the assumption that the Blue Jays were “in the driver’s seat” for the home field wild card spot. But over the last few days you might be thinking about the action movie cliché where the guy in the driver’s seat is frantically trying to switch seats with the passenger on the fly, as the Blue Jays inexplicably lose games they should have won. The frustrating part of this month for me is when things that have been working great for months suddenly don’t work for no apparent reason. There’s been a lot of that lately, most recently with the collar-tugging surrounding typically invincible Roberto Osuna.
However, since I’m tasked with the job of discussing the Jays’ plans for the wild card game, I’m necessarily obliged to make some assumptions. For starters, it becomes easier to foresee an outcome such as we’ve been assuming if the Blue Jays beat the Orioles tonight. If they don’t, things are considerably more dicey. Before I get into the positive assumptions, let me briefly consider the nightmare scenario.
How They Can Get There
At this point their are essentially four serious contenders for two spots. Even after having beaten the Red Sox, finally, last night the Yankees are four games off the pace with four to play, and the Astros are 3.5 back which also puts then on the edge of contention. So as of this writing, the standings look like this:
Toronto +1 … 1 more against Baltimore, 3 games at Boston
Baltimore -xx … 1 more at Toronto, 3 games at NY
Detroit -1 … 1 more hosting Cleveland (Daniel Norris vs AAA filler), 3 games at Atlanta
Seattle -2 … 4 games at home v. Oakland
Do you see what I see there? There’s a reasonable chance that both the Tigers and the Mariners win out. Mathematically, it’s possible that’s your two wild card teams. Assuming those clubs did win out, Toronto can ensure they don’t lose a spot to Seattle with one more win. They can ensure they don’t lose a spot to Detroit with two more wins. That should be doable, especially given that Boston will be coasting and will one way or the other soften their rotation for us (certainly Price will be held back for the ALCS). But if they don’t win at least two the rest of the way, they could find themselves on the outside looking in. And even then, that only produces a tie with the Tigers and forces the Blue Jays into the 163rd game.
Now here’s why this is important to today’s topic: the longer the Blue Jays take to lock down their wild card host position, the more they are trapped into playing to win in Boston instead of holding back a starter (likely Sanchez) for the WC game. If you want that luxury, you have to have your position in hand as of Sunday morning. That means winning tonight, and one of the next two, AND Baltimore not sweeping the Yankees. Again, assuming the Tigers win the games they should (which is why Baltimore would need to lose a game). This is, of course, baseball so they might not.
So going forward from here, I’m going to assume that the Blue Jays do win tonight to move two games up on Baltimore, and win at least one of the first two in Boston while the Yankees win at least one of the first two against Baltimore. Otherwise, a lot of what I’m about to say becomes obsolete.
So the situation that results from that scenario is that Toronto holds the first wild card, and that the other three are closely bunched for the second spot. If Detroit does win out and the Blue Jays win tonight, then Baltimore would need to sweep the Yankees to force a 163rd game. But I’ve already assumed that the Yankees win at least one of the first two games so that Toronto’s last game is meaningless. If that happens, then Detroit has the opportunity to pass them and win the second slot. If Detroit loses a game they shouldn’t, then the time remains, and so forth. You get the idea. For Seattle, there are scenarios in which you might even have a three way tie (to wit, they win out, the Tigers lose one of four, and the Orioles lose tonight and then again at least once more) which are not at all unrealistic. Blue Jays fans should really root for that because the fallout for whichever of those three teams remain standing is significant. That makes them easier to beat in the WC game. In short, speculating about the roster for the WC game hinges to a great deal on winning tonight.
However, let us assume that things fall such that Sunday’s game is not must-win. There’s a scenario in which Saturday’s isn’t either but I won’t get that far into the weeds. What kind of implications does this have for roster construction in the post-season?
Once They’re In the Wild Card
The first and major implication is that it makes Aaron Sanchez the obvious starter for that game. In a situation where neither the Saturday or Sunday game is must win, one could in theory muse about using J.A. Happ in that game instead. But the Blue Jays only have one spare starter – R.A. Dickey – and it seems unwise to have a bullpen day in the other game as you are trying to have everyone rested for the playoffs. So let’s just go ahead and take it as a given that the job belongs to Sanchez. If, in the nightmare scenario the Jays are still trying to get in as of Sunday, then the available options are Francisco Liriano and Marcus Stroman, and if they have to play the 163rd game, then that one goes to Liriano and the WC to Stroman. Let’s assume for the sake of speculation that Sunday doesn’t matter and Sanchez is held back.
How, then, is the rest of the pitching staff constructed for that game? Historically, teams have usually taken 9 or 10 pitchers for that game. Starters who are not on turn are left off – that means Dickey, who wouldn’t have gone anyway, Happ, and likely Estrada would take a seat. The most trusted part of the bullpen can be written in – Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, Brett Cecil, and Joe Biagini. Stroman and Liriano seem certain to go. Liriano is the next most reliable LH, and Stroman has some bullpen experience, and both can easily give them multiple innings. That brings us to seven total pitchers. You’re going to need two to three more. The contenders are Scott Feldman, Bo Schultz, Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, Danny Barnes, Matt Dermody, and Chris Smith. Feldman has been untrustworthy, and Schultz hit-or-miss, Dermody hasn’t been used enough to be seriously considered and Smith was always just an emergency call up. That leaves Loup, whom I believe gets in as a LOOGY, and at least one of Barnes or Tepera. Thats nine pitchers, we may or may not come back for a tenth.
On the offensive side of the game, we’re looking at 15-16 players and most of them quite obvious. The regular starting nine, Russ Martin, Justin Smoak, Edwin Encarnacion, Devon Travis (assuming health), Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar, and Michael Saunders. Add to this Dioner Navarro as the obvious backup catcher, Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins, and then the outfield trio of Dalton Pompey, Ezekiel Carrera, and Melvin Upton, Jr. That’s 15, or 24 obvious names in all. The last man then would seem to be either that last RH reliever (Tepera or Barnes) or Josh Thole. This comes down to whether or not Gibby wants to protect himself behind the plate more than he wants to flood the bullpen. My hunch is that’s how he’ll lean.
So if you get five from Sanchez, you could reasonably expect to get two from Stroman or Liriano and hold the other back for potential extra innings, while using your usualy late inning guys to get through the 8th and 9th. This doesn’t really cost you in future games because you can open a potential ALDS with Happ and Estrada and there’s be 4 days rest for Stroman (or Liriano but likely Stroman) to start Game 3. Given the current streak of highly effective starting pitching, the Jays match up well with any post-season opponent in the AL.
They just have to get there first.
Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
How safe is it to assume BOS will be coasting and will hold back Price? Re. the former, they may not be assured of finishing ahead of either TEX or CLE to have home field in the ALDS. Re. the latter, Price’s regular turn falls on Sunday and the ALDS begins on Thur., so Price could go on Sunday and be on full rest for game 2 of the ALDS on Fri. if someone else starts game 1; e.g. Porcello who is also on turn to face the Jays unless he’s also held back. .
Looks like Price IS actually pitching that game. They announced it today. Still seems very unlikely he goes deep.
Skipping his turn would have meant more than a week off if even he got game 1 of the ALDS, which doesn’t seem certain given Porcello’s performance this year and when their respective turns fall. It seemed questionable whether BOS would want to disrupt Price’s normal schedule to that degree.
Like you, I expect he’ll be taken out sooner than usual.