Searching for Cecil: Brett’s Bizarre Usage

Last night, with the Blue Jays leading the Orioles 5-1 in the bottom of the eighth inning, Troy Tulowitzki hit a two out double off of Oliver Drake. What was noteworthy about the seemingly innocuous two-bagged was that Roberto Osuna had been warming up, but Brett Cecil got up beside him (his second warm up of the day) after the hit. Melvin Upton Jr. flied out to LF to end the inning, so Cecil sat down and Roberto Osuna entered the game.

This was strange because John Gibbons wasn’t willing to go to Brett Cecil to hold a four run lead in the ninth inning against the bottom of the Orioles lineup but he apparently would have been perfectly happy to do so if the Jays scored again. If this were just an isolated incident, it could be written off as a quirk or the pressure of the must-win game. It wasn’t. This has been a trend that has been showing up constantly as September rolls along. Below you’ll find a list of recent situations where Brett Cecil has gotten loose, only for the team to go in another direction.

Sept. 15 vs LAA: Jason Grilli gets into trouble with a 2-run lead. Two men get on with one out, but Gibbons sticks with Grilli who escapes. Cecil seemed to be warming only in case Grilli blew the lead. Osuna closes it out after warming up despite the Jays adding three runs in the ninth.

Sept. 16 vs LAA: Jason Grilli is called upon to face lefties as three of the first five batters with a two run lead. Osuna joins Cecil, and is brought in after two runners reach base vs switch-hitter Caleb Kowart (the Angels 9th hitter). Jays score three again, Osuna closes it out again.

Sept. 19 vs SEA: Jason Grilli is brought in to the game with five straight lefties or switch hitters due up and a three run lead. Cecil is joined by Osuna after Grilli’s first walk, and then Osuna is brought in after the second one to face lefty Robinson Cano. Cano hits a bases loaded liner to the track, but it is caught. Osuna gives up two in the ninth, but closes it out.

Sept. 25 vs NYY: After warming up in the 7th, Cecil is not brought in to face Gardner and Ellsbury in the 8th because John Gibbons is worried about bunting (I’m not kidding h/t to James G). Gibby goes with Benoit while Cecil warms again for a matchup with Brian McCann that never comes. Osuna blows the save in the 9th. Jays win anyway.

Sept. 27 vs BAL: The aforementioned double warm up game for Cecil. Biagini stays in the game for two quick innings, then Gibbons chose Osuna for the ninth because the lead was four and not five.

That list doesn’t even include the recent games against the Yankees on Sept 6 and Sept 26 when Jason Grilli was allowed to face a host of switch-hitters and lefties, and served up a total of three home runs while surrendering eight runs. Cecil didn’t even warm up in the first one, and only faced one batter in the 7th in the most recent affair before being yanked. He did pitch in the ninth inning of the 9-0 win though…

The run margins in Cecil’s last 10 appearances (when he entered): Down 5, Down 2, Down 3, Up 1 (faced one batter in the 4th inning), Down 2, Down 4, Up 8, Down 1 (faced one batter), Up 9, Up 1 (faced one batter). The average leverage index in those outings is 0.67. A leverage index of 2+ is considered “high,” 0.85-2 is “medium,” anything else is viewed as “low leverage. That’s Cecil’s average appearance.

In fact, in those ten games, Brett Cecil pitched in a medium or high leverage situation just twice, and faced a grand total of…two batters.

Some of this is because the starters have been going deep, but mostly it’s because John Gibbons continues to prefer Jason Grilli against lefties and switch hitters (they have a .796 OPS against Grilli since joining the Blue Jays) over Brett Cecil.

This simply makes no sense, and it’s why Jason Grilli has an ERA of 10.00 in his last 11 outings. In that span, lefties have hit him to the tune of .353/.500/1.176 (that’s slugging, not OPS). He is still handling righties just fine though, with a .200/.261/.350 line. So why won’t Gibbons use Cecil in those spots? Is it merely that Grilli is “the setup guy” (this is actually the scarier option), or has Cecil not completely regained his manager’s faith?

It’s no secret that Brett Cecil wasn’t himself in baseball’s first half. By the time the game ended on July 20th, he was left looking at an ERA of 6.75. His strikeouts were down (19.5 percent compared to 32.6 percent in 2014-2015), and he couldn’t even get lefties out (.370/.414/.519 line), let alone righties (.372/.404/.605).

But in the last couple of months, Brett Cecil has been…well…Brett Cecil again. Since that disaster July 20th outing when he gave up three runs, Cecil has allowed just three runs total across 18 2/3 innings spanning 27 games. Yes, one of them was an inherited bases loaded situation that turned into a grand slam, and the other two came on a heartbreaking two-run homer to lose a game 3-2, but overall, Cecil has been absolutely dominant.

In that time, he has a 1.45 ERA, has allowed just three walks and fourteen hits, and most importantly, the strikeouts have returned. Since turning things around, Cecil has struck out 34.7 percent of the batters he has faced and he is dominating hitters from both sides of the plate again. Righties have struck out 33.3 percent of the time, and have hit a mere .161/.212/.355 which includes the two home runs. And as bad as the righties have been, lefties have absolutely no chance; Since July 20 in 39 PA, Cecil has a strikeout rate of 35.9 percent, and lefties are hitting .167/.231/.167. You’ll notice the slugging percentage and batting average are identical. Not only is he missing lefty bats, when they do make contact, they can’t do much of anything with it. Cecil is definitely back to being the elite reliever we remember against all hitters.

Cecil credits a lot of his recent success to simplifying his thought process on the mound. John Lott has a great piece for MLB.com (worth the read) where Cecil credits Pete Walker for getting him to stop overthinking pitch sequences and just let the catchers call the game. The Blue Jays have some of baseballs best pitch callers in Russell Martin and Dioner Navarro, and Cecil thrived when he learned to trust them.

Now it’s time for John Gibbons to trust Brett Cecil.

Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports