There’s no secret that the 2016 version of the Toronto Blue Jays is performing drastically different than the team we saw in 2015. The roster is similar, but even there we can see significant differences. The major changes to player personnel came in the bullpen and starting rotation. The bullpen lost Liam Hendriks, Mark Lowe, LaTroy Hawkins and Aaron Sanchez (who obviously is still on the team). This season the team gained Jason Grilli, Joe Biagini, Joaquin Benoit and, for a time, Drew Storen… The team both lost and gained quality relievers but all-in-all the bullpen has been much worse this season than last (more on this later).
Let’s take a look at the route that both teams took to get to this point in the season. Last season, the Jays overwhelmed their opponents with sheer force. They were so proficient at scoring runs that by a standardized rate (z-scores) the team was the best offensive team relative to other clubs that season of all-time. With that in mind, it seems unrealistic to expect the same level of offensive consistency; and we have certainly witnessed an immense drop off.
Above is a table of some relevant team statistics (prior to last night’s game). As you can see, through the same number of games last year, the Jays had scored 114 more runs than this version. This is of course fine; the Jays simply need to be a good offensive team rather than one of the best offensive teams ever to make the playoffs. However, the numbers that stand out to me are the Jays record against lefties and their record at home. This year, they have performed worse when they are facing a lefty starter despite a lineup is constructed almost entirely of right-handed power hitters. This team should mash lefties, like they did last year; but that hasn’t been the case thus far. As for their ability to win at home, I’m not sure why the team has a worse record, perhaps this team just isn’t as good and to expect a 65% win rate at home is far-fetched.
The big surprise the amount of runs the Jays have allowed in 2016 compared to last season. As we all know, the Jays rotation has been flat out better than it was last year. Except for a rough patch in August, the rotation has been the driving force on a lot of nights to get the win. This makes sense, if a team adds two cy-young candidates to their rotation, you would expect them to perform at a higher level. As such, it was shocking to see the Jays had allowed more runs. This number represents the entire pitching staff and, of course, that encompasses the faulty bullpen. Below are two tables representing the starter and reliever splits over both 2015 and 2016. Keep in mind that the 2015 data represents the entire season.
The starters have lowered both their ERA and WHIP, and increased the number of strikeouts per nine and the strikeout to walk ratio. This isn’t necessarily a surprise, the club was getting Stroman back for the entire season and Sanchez was entering the rotation. What is a surprise is that Stroman has been mediocre and the rotation is still pitching this well.
Sadly, the bullpen has been nothing short of a catastrophe. They have a worse ERA and batting average against than the rotation, which is about as clear an indicator of poor performance as you can except. One inning relievers should outperform starters. In 2015, the bullpen was 11 percent better than the average bullpen when factoring in park differences. This year they are 6 percent worse than the average relief corps. It is tough to recover from a net 17 percentage point swing in performance in a single year.
It seems in this day and age, people often try to define a bullpen by a team’s top-3 arms. What reliever can throw in the 7th, the 8th and the 9th? In 2015, the Jays could send Cecil, Sanchez and Osuna to the mound to cover those innings. That is incredibly strong, especially since Brett Cecil was one of the best relievers in the entire game last year. Obviously, Osuna has remained a constant but the other two spots have been up for grabs for the majority of the year. The year started out with Drew Storen, Bad Cecil, and Gavin Floyd in those spots, and to call it a trainwrekc wouldn’t exactly be out of line. The situation seems to have stabilized somewhat later. The acquisition of Jason Grilli from the Atlanta Braves turned out to be an instrumental pick-up, as the Jays had now found their 8th inning guy. It seems the team has even found a 7th inning man in Joaquin Benoit, though I keep waiting for an implosion from the shaky right-hander.
The problem is that a bullpen is clearly more than just the three guys you turn to with a late lead. A team needs bridges to keep a game close, or if their starter only goes five innings. The club’s primary problem of late has been finding a consistent option to fill that role. Joe Biagini held the job for a while, but it looks like the workload is catching up to him. In his last 10 games, the rookie righthander has a 7.36 ERA (9 runs in 11 innings) and has allowed a gruesome six walks and three home runs. That kind of performance can quickly turn a lot of winnable games into lost causes. I imagine the Jays will be cautious in how they utilize him going forward, but unless they start using Brett Cecil for full innings, there isn’t really a better option.
After yesterday’s game, the Jays have an 83-68 record, totalling 151 games played. There are 11 games left toward the march to the post-season and the Blue Birds find themselves four games back of the division leading Red Sox. The club needs to make up at least two games in the next eight to have a chance at the division in the final series. The Jays are not what they were last year. They cannot rely solely on hitting home runs. They need to pitch well, have a tight defense and convert on the offensive chances they generate. It isn’t a flashy style but it appears the team is heading toward a wild card berth and good pitching and sturdy defensive is typically less volatile than hitting home runs.
Lead Photo: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
“The club needs to make up at least two games in the next eight to have a chance at the division in the final series.”
They can also win the division by making up one game in the next eight, sweeping the three-game series plus winning the ensuing one-game playoff, no?
I assume he meant any kind of realistic chance. The odds of winning 4 in a row against the Red Sox were incredibly slim.