Stop me if you’ve seen this lately. The team received decent, but not great starting pitching, got no hitting, and the non-setup relief corps couldn’t keep the game close.
Once again, the Toronto Blue Jays looked a lot more like the type of team fans have been seeing for the past two decades than the one that they’d seen from August of 2015 until the end of August 2016. This time it was Marco Estrada (8-9) taking the ball, and after the first few innings it looked like the Jays could pull this one out. Estrada was perfect through three with five strikeouts, and the Jays had scored a run in the first after a leadoff double that eventually scored on a sac fly, giving them a 1-0 lead going into the fourth.
That was as long as it would last, however, as Kevin Kiermaier looped a homer over the RF wall, and then Corey Dickerson added an RBI single to put the Rays up 3-1. The way the Jays offense has been performing, it would have been tough enough to come back from that deficit, but Matt Dermody and Danny Barnes couldn’t keep it that way, allowing another three runs (one charged to Estrada) to score, effectively putting the game out of reach. Estrada actually pitched pretty well, but some poor sequencing hurt him in the fourth inning.
The story for Tampa was Alex Cobb (1-0). Like many other starters facing Toronto lately, Cobb was excellent. After the Travis double, he wouldn’t give up another hit until a Dioner Navarro single with two outs in the seventh. Overall he went 6 2/3 innings, allowing just one run on two hits and three walks, with four strikeouts, and picking up his first win of the season. It was a nice sign for the Rays and Cobb as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery in May of 2015.
A trio of relievers finished off the game for the Rays, dropping the Blue Jays to 3-9 in September and closing out their fourth straight series loss, and temporarily dropping them into third place in the AL East.
Ailing Blue Jays
As if the struggling offence wasn’t enough, the Blue Jays now may be facing a lineup without MVP candidate Josh Donaldson. The star 3B went for an MRI today to look at his hip, which he tweaked in Sunday’s game against Boston. If he’s out for any length of time, the Jays could really struggle to get out of this prolonged slump.
Where’s the Relief?
As mentioned above, the Blue Jays were once again let down by their struggling middle relief corps. With a 3-1 lead and a runner on first, Matt Dermody served up a home run to Corey Dickerson, and then Danny Barnes failed to keep the game close, with Bo Schultz allowing another run in the ninth. This was the same story in yesterday’s game when Joe Biagini started the parade that turned a 3-2 deficit into a 6-2 loss, which was also similar to the effort against Boston on Sunday (turning a lead into a loss).
Top Play of the Game by WPA
There should be no surprise here; Kevin Kiermaier’s go-ahead, two-run homer in the fourth inning was the biggest contributor to the Rays win in this game, increasing their odds of victory by 20.5 percent (.205).
Of equally little surprise, the top three plays were all Rays’ scoring plays, with Dickerson’s two-run homer off Dermody clocking in at .130 WPA and his RBI single adding another .103 WPA.
Bottom Play of the Game by WPA
In a game like this, where one team jumped out early (the fourth inning), there weren’t many big moments that turned into outs. As such, the lowest WPA of the game was a Evan Longoria fly out in the fifth with runners on first and second to end the inning and keep the game 3-1, lowering the Rays odds of winning by a meager 3.3 percent (.033 WPA).
Trend to Watch
The Blue Jays continue to have a heck of a time scoring runs when they don’t hit the long ball. Though they did score a run in this game on a sac fly, the Blue Jays haven’t driven in a run with a hit (non HR) since Saturday against Boston. They have plated only two other runs of any kind (the sac fly today and a bases loaded walk by Martin against Boston) during that stretch. The team needs to start having better at-bats and actually stringing some hits together or they’ll find themselves out of the race quickly.
Up Next
The Jays head out west now for a seven game stretch against the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners. Game 1 will see J.A. Happ (18-4, 3.33 ERA) going up against rookie Daniel Wright (0-0, 7.50). The Jays will probably need to go at least 5-2 in this stretch to have any hope at all of winning the division.
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