September Roster Expansion: Which Blue Jays Will Get the Call Up?

At this time of year, whether a team is in a playoff race or not, obsessive fans turn what is likely too much attention to the question of which players will get a call up when rosters expand in September. Often, but not always, the selections are fairly obvious, but further clarity can be gained by recognizing some of the considerations that the organization takes into account when making their choices.

One thing to remember: the fact that teams are allowed up to 40 players in September does not necessarily mean that there will be 15 players recalled. In fact, that basically never happens. More often, it’s maybe six or seven. Another angle to consider is what your team’s area of need is. Teams can be reliably expected to add a third catcher and more relief pitchers. Beyond that, it can vary according to where the 25 man roster lacks depth. Then there’s the factor of who is already on the 40 man roster and which among those have spent time in the majors already that year. These are usually players you can assume have found some level of favour with management.

Finally, consider the possibility that a team might have other plans for a given player. For example, one might think to themselves “I’ll bet Rowdy Tellez could hit major league pitching in September” and, indeed, he might. However, the Blue Jays may have him earmarked for the Arizona Fall League (more about that in a future post) and it’s fairly uncommon for such a player to get a September recall.

With those considerations in mind, let’s speculate on what will happen to the roster in just under a week. All these comments reflect changes to the current roster as of today’s publication. The details might change according to roster moves between now and Sept. 1.

Here are the players who will, in my opinion,  receive consideration. Some of these are more certain than others, but there’s a better than average chance for many. But to reiterate my earlier point – there will NOT be 15 players added to the roster.

Reminder: Aaron Sanchez, who will be back and starting against Baltimore on August 31, is not technically a part of this conversation. However, the team will need to make an “on paper” move in order to clear a roster spot.

The Potential Pitchers

Bo Schultz

The team seems to really like Schultz and he’s really given them no reason not to. Throw out his first three AAA appearances as he worked his way back from off-season hip surgery, and he posted a  2.00 ERA from May 24 until today. If not for the roster squeeze because of the six man rotation, he’d probably have spent all of August in Toronto.

Ryan Tepera

The Blue Jays have reliably turned to Tepera as the next man in the pecking order all season, except where roster machinations made it impractical or impossible. That he was just up last week is a sign he still holds that position. In case you think he’s a lightweight, note that he’s allowed more than one earned run exactly once in 34 minor league appearances. If you take out that one ugly outing, his ERA in all other games is 1.80…that’ll play. It should be noted that Tepera can’t technically be recalled until September 2nd because of the 10 day rule.

Danny Barnes

He didn’t get much of an audition in his first trip to Toronto, but Barnes’ promotion shows he’s on their radar, and why wouldn’t he be? His AAA success is stunning. a 0.40 ERA and seven baserunners in 22.1 innings to go with 30 strikeouts.

Chad Girodo

With 10 pitchers in the bullpen mix ahead of him, Girodo is likely on the outside looking in. Plus, his AAA season has gone seriously sideways (7 BB and 1 K in 6 IP) in August.

Gavin Floyd

The original prognosis for Floyd’s injury was eight-to-twelve weeks, and we’re now at nine weeks with no word of recovery or rehab. From today, there are two weeks left in the AAA season, plus whatever playoff games might happen for the lower level teams. There’s a tiny window for a rehab assignment, but the odds are against him.

The Potential Hitters

Ryan Goins

This is so obvious it really needs no explanation. The only thing I need to say here is that Goins has to spend 10 days in the minors (unless the move is driven by injury) so he can’t be recalled until September 4th.

Eric Kratz

[Edit – see trade related update below] Seems likely to get the call over one-time prospect A.J. Jimenez, who’s been up and down all year, to fill the third catcher slot. My guess is the organization will value the veteran experience, including the knuckleball experience.

Dalton Pompey

It’s difficult to diagnose from afar just what’s going on with Pompey. After a slow start in April, which might have been attributed to the effects of a late spring injury, he picked up in early May and had a good-but-not-great summer. Then August arrived and he tailed into a 1-17 slump at the worst possible time: the week preceding Kevin Pillar’s trip to the DL. In the two weeks since, he’s returned to his previous levels (.259/.375/.389/.763 in his last 16 games). That makes him, offensively, a comparable option to the next guy on the list, and a better option than the one after him. He’s also, reportedly, been tentative and shaky on defense, which along with his speed, ought to have been crucial to his value. Still, there is the baserunning and the Blue Jays are going to have to decide what they think of him before next Opening Day. It would be stunning if he wasn’t recalled.

Darrell Ceciliani

The organization has a high view of Ceciliani, for what he is, and he was a much better hitter (.877 OPS) in the second half for Buffalo. He’s only played in 10 games for Buffalo in August, having spent much of the month in Toronto, but he’s been on fire in those games. It’s nearly a lock they’ll find room for him in September.

Junior Lake

With seven outfielders in front of him, my guess is that there’s just not room for him even though he’s been up a couple of times previously. Lake was outrighted (again) off the 40-man roster the last time.

Matt Dominguez

The gifted defender, who apparently forgot how to hit major league pitching, seems to have some appeal to the organization. He’s actually put up respectable numbers in Buffalo (compared to his recent years in the majors) and is having a good August. I’m inclined to think that Dominguez is coming back to Toronto next week.

Andy Burns

Burns may have missed his window as a prospect. His numbers in Buffalo are markedly worse in almost every category than they were in 2015, and only his defensive versatility gives him any hope of a recall.  I’m not at all sure that’s going to be enough.

Jesus Montero

I include him more because semi-casual fans will chatter about recalling him than because I think there’s a strong possibility. It’s true he’s leading the International League in hits, but he hasn’t shown the power that he was thought to have back when he was a prospect, and there’s little role on this team for a DH-only player without home run power.

Chris Colabello

Colabello has not done a single thing in AAA to warrant a recall. Unless the team feels some unspoken sense of loyalty to him, possibly because the guys in the clubhouse have some emotion invested in it, I can’t see that he brings any value that the Jays would covet.

The Prediction

Given all that what know, it seems like Loup, Schultz, Tepera, and Barnes will join the bullpen, and Goins, Pompey, Ceciliani, Dominguez and Kratz will be brought up to lengthen the bench.

Trade Related Update

With the acquisition of Dioner Navarro, clearly that means Kratz won’t be joining the team. Likewise, whichever player is optioned in order to make room for Navarro, one would have thought Aaron Loup, though Russ Atkins just implied they may slide Thole through waivers, will be back when the minor league season ends.

Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports