The 2015 Blue Jays had a dominant offence, no matter what measurement you used. They led the league in runs scored, as well as on-base percentage AND slugging percentage. They scored nearly a full run more per game than the next best offensive team: the total difference between them and the second-best offense, the New York Yankees (127 runs) was more than the difference between the Yankees and the 26th best offense, the Cincinnati Reds. With the majority of the same players returning, AND a full-season from Troy Tulowitzki, the thought was that the Jays could be similarly dominant at the plate this season.
That hasn’t quite been true.
While the Blue Jays still boast a very solid overall offense, currently sitting sixth in baseball, it seems as if they are under-performing relative to the talent that they have on hand. The starting pitching has gotten the most attention with the surprising ascents of Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ, who have both exceeded preseason expectations. No one expected the starters to be as good as they have been, and there have been many games where they’ve kept it close despite a lack of hitting.
As the Jays have had mostly good health, and a lot of the same players they employed last season, it’s occasionally confounding as to why they’re struggling to score. Let’s look at some of the reasons they’re worse, and whether we can expect that to change.
SCUFFLING STARS
The 2015 Blue Jays had several elite hitters, making for a difficult lineup to navigate. Teams would love to have one hitter the caliber of Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, or Jose Bautista, and the Jays had three. They also supplemented them with Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, and several role players who all had career seasons at the same time.
Some of the elite players have continued to be great: Donaldson and Encarnacion have boasted similar numbers to last year (with Donaldson even being just a bit better), and after a bad start, Tulowitzki has been hitting everything in sight since the beginning of July. However, there have been two obvious declines that have pulled some legs from the Jays’ offensive table: Bautista and Martin.
Bautista’s decline from elite to merely good has been an issue. His time on the DL leading to more at-bats for Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr hasn’t helped either. With Bautista’s injury keeping him on the shelf for the moment, he’s running out of season to turn that around. He’s probably better than that line, but those numbers, like Martin’s, are on the ledger, and cannot be waved away by anticipating a new hot streak.
While Martin’s year to date line looks bad, it should be noted that he had an awful first two months. Not just generically bad, but awful. He recorded a .391 OPS in April, and followed that up with .629 in May. He, like Tulowitzki, has been excellent in the time since, with his lowest OPS since May being .828, but that his numbers are still bad shows just how far he had to go to make his overall line respectable.
STRUGGLING SUPPORTS
In addition to several elite hitters, last year’s team had many supporting cast members who had career seasons. Players like Chris Colabello, Devon Travis, and Danny Valencia were fantastic, and even players like Justin Smoak, Ryan Goins, and Kevin Pillar contributed when they had to. Pillar and Smoak, who were at least occasionally contributing last year, haven’t been as good so far this season.
Alert fans may wonder why I haven’t yet mentioned Michael Saunders. He has been a wonderful surprise for the Jays, providing a left-handed bat this lineup sorely needed. But his contributions are actually slightly worse what the Jays got from Colabello last season.
It’s amusing to think that Travis vs. Goins for the second base job was ever a discussion, given how badly Goins started the season, and how good Travis has been since returning from his injury. As they’ve shared the second base job for a lot of the time, let’s combine their contributions, and see what we get from this behemoth in the two years.
The lack of a breakout season beyond Saunders, and the decline of the supporting players, has been a factor in the Blue Jays’ offensive decline as well. The construction of a baseball lineup means you can only do so much to avoid guys who can’t hit, and the Jays have just had too many of them at times this year. John Gibbons can stack the top of his lineup however he likes, those bottom few hitters are going to keep coming up no matter what. Having Devon Travis in the lineup full time and limiting the exposure of Smoak can help, but the supporting cast being just a little bit better would make the jobs of guys like Donaldson and Tulowitzki a little easier.
SOARING STRIKEOUTS
Among the most noticeable contributors to the Jays’ lack of has been an increase in strikeouts. The numbers bear out the anecdotal evidence of watching the games: the Jays have struck out the seventh-most times in baseball this year after striking out the seventh-least last season. Some of that could be anticipated: A power hitting team with a lot of players in their 30s who all got a year older was probably going to strike out more.
The Jays core power hitters- Donaldson, Encarnacion, and Bautista- have historically been outliers in that they don’t strike out a lot relative to other power hitters. This hasn’t been the case for most of the team this year. Encarnacion and Smoak have struck out more times than last year already, Martin is three away from matching last year’s total, Saunders has been punched out 125 times in his 105 games, and Upton has struck out 21 times in a mere 51 at-bats in Toronto so far.
This was something the Jays attempted to mitigate some last year when they acquired Ben Revere from the Phillies, someone who was known for putting the ball in play. And while he was excellent down the stretch for the Jays, his complete lack of any kind of power was exposed at times in the postseason. He had a paltry .277 slugging percentage in the playoffs, and struck out seven times in the Royals series. Jays fans probably remember him striking out against Wade Davis with the season on the line.
Given how many power hitters the Jays have in their lineup, the occasional droughts between dingers is something they’ll have to live with for now. The trade deadline has come and gone, and only brought the strikeout-happy Upton to the team, and as we noticed, he isn’t likely to help that problem. With pitching being an area of need, adding a hitter didn’t make much sense for the Blue Jays, so any changes made will have to be to a player’s approach at the plate, rather than by writing someone else’s name in the lineup.
THE REST OF THE LEAGUE IS BETTER
The Blue Jays offense was miles better than the rest of the league last year, but the rest of the league was also a bit worse than it is now. The Jays were the only team that scored more than five runs per game last season, with the second place Yankees coming in at 4.72 runs per game. That 4.72 runs per game mark is being beaten by seven teams so far this year, including the Jays. So no matter what it seems like watching the games, it’s not as bad as it looks. It’s a little more crowded at the top, as other teams have decided that scoring a lot of runs is both fun and productive.
While the increased run environment has helped contribute to the Jays offense seeming more mortal, it also shows how an improved rotation has led to better results for them throughout the season; better pitchers have more value in a league that’s scoring more often. No one predicted the starters being as good as they were, and that they continue to hold down opposing offenses has helped the Jays on the nights their bats have been quiet. With the bullpen rounding into form, the hitters being a little more consistent would help them build a lead in the AL East down the stretch.
It’s important to note that while the Jays have been worse than last season offensively, it’s not that much worse, and still really good. As we mentioned initially, they’re sixth in an improved league in runs scored, and based on their numbers would have been the second-best offense last year. There are certainly reasons for optimism for the remaining month and a half, with the return of Bautista (both to the lineup and to form, hopefully), continued production from the excellent hitters they have, and hopefully some signs of life from the talented Upton. Even with their offense seeming to struggle relative to the talent on the team, the Blue Jays are jockeying for first in a competitive American League East, and that’s all anyone can ask for.
Lead Photo: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports