Two years ago, if I’d told you that Drew Hutchison pitched just as well as Justin Verlander, you’d have been ecstatic. Well, that happened today, but there was no ecstaticism to be found. Verlander isn’t much like his 2011 Cy Young and MVP award winning self these days; today’s game epitomized that. He struck out five batters, but walked just four. He also gave up no home runs, but the Jays eke’d out six hits against him over 5 2/3 innings. Miraculously, that was enough to allow Justin Verlander to leave the game with the Tigers ahead and a shot at a win. How? As iterated earlier, Hutch had a similarly unfortunate performance.
In the strikeout and walk department, Drew Hutchison far outclassed his opponent: he struck out seven and walked just one over six innings. However, as he often does, Hutchison gave up a couple of fly balls that went a little too far. Since 2012, among pitchers with at least 400 innings pitched, Drew Hutchison’s 1.26 HR/9 is the 15th worst home run rate in the league. Some would argue that, despite the homers, today’s start marked a staunch improvement for the righty. It validates the ‘potential’ that he still holds. Unfortunately, strikeouts have never been Drew’s issues; instead it is how hittable he is, and how many flyballs he gives up. There was no improvement in either of those two categories today.
Despite less than wonderful pitching for both teams, there was less scoring than you might expect. The Blue Jays tagged Verlander for two runs in the first. Then, with homers in the second and fourth, the Tigers propelled their way to a lead. That lead held until the eight, when the Jays nickelled and dimed their way to two runs. It started with a Zeke single, a Donaldson single, and a Martin walk mixed in a couple outs. That left the based loaded for the recently hot Troy Tulowitzki, who didn’t miss his shot at glory. Blue Jays win.
Top Play of the Game by WPA
Today’s top play was Tulowitzki’s aforementioned single to score two and take the lead. It earned the Jays a remarkable 51% edge in win probability added. While very high, that figure makes sense, as it likely would have been the Jays’ last shot at a win. At that point there were two outs, and the bases loaded. Had Troy Tulowitzki not been able to score at least one run, Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, and Darwin Barney would have finished out the game. That trio doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence.
Bottom Play of the Game by WPA
Today’s bottom play also came in the 8th inning, just two batters before Troy Tulowitzki. Michael Saunders had come to the plate with Ezequiel Carrera on third, Josh Donaldson on first, and just one out. Had he gotten the ball out of the infield, the game would have been tied. Instead, he grounded out to first, with Miguel Cabrera going to home to get Ezequiel out on a fielder’s choice; a 20.6% reduction in win expectancy.
The Real Troy Tulowitzki is in the Building
Over his last six games, including today, Troy Tulowitzki has three home runs, nine hits, and a whole lot of confidence. In a post titled, “The Blue Jays are Smashing People Again,” Jeff Sullivan detailed how Tulo’s contact rate has returned to form, and it may be the thing to turn his season around. Jeff theorized that Troy Tulowitzki’s early season experiment with the leg kick may have caused some contact issues. However, he’s now back to a toe tap, and it certainly seems to be working.
Good Morning Baltimore
On May 18th, the Blue Jays were seven games back of first in the AL East. Today, they are now just one game back of Baltimore. That’s a remarkable recovery. It has come as a result of a nice little hot streak. They’ve won 6 of their last 6; 8 of their last 10; and 14 of their last 22. No matter how you frame it, the Jays are on a roll.
Up Next
Tomorrow Aaron Sanchez will take on Mike Pelfrey of the Tigers. It’s the ultimate strikeout versus no strikeout matchup, and it’ll begin at 7:07 PM EST. The Jays have come close to sweeping all four of their four game series this season, but haven’t yet done it. With Verlander out of the way and Jordan Zimmermann on the DL, they’ll have the opportunity against the Tigers.
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