The Toronto Blue Jays came into Sunday’s day game as winners of their last four straight. More intriguingly though, they also had the best outfielder in all of baseball (measured by TAv) in Michael Saunders. Technically tied with Mike Trout, Saunders currently has a .344 TAv. In the month of June, he has an isolated power of .490 and he has contributed just over two wins above replacement player to the Blue Jays so far this year.
Standing in their way, both Yovani Gallardo and J.J. Hardy were making their return for the first-place Baltimore Orioles today. A lot of eyes were on Gallardo’s return specifically as the Orioles’ pitching staff currently sits 25th in all of baseball by DRA.
Tasked with keeping the Orioles in first place, Gallardo worked admirably through five innings but got pulled after just 85 pitches due to body preservation following his return from injury. He allowed two runs on five hits and four walks while striking out five before turning it over to the bullpen. And, despite a shaky ninth from Zach Britton, they locked it down while the reigning AL MVP hit into a double play.
Top Play of the Game by WPA
In the storybook ninth–that only lacked the storybook ending–Russell Martin worked a walk against Orioles’ closer Britton. Martin, who was pinch hitting, would load the bases by reaching. This came just after Darwin Barney–who was pinch hitting for Josh Thole–also worked a walk. Martin’s walk contributed 11.6 percent of the Jays’ win expectancy (.116 WPA)
Britton was all over the place and nothing could stop the Blue Jays from winning the game. Except the bottom play…
Bottom Play of the Game by WPA
In the bottom of the ninth, the reigning AL MVP came up with the bases loaded and one out. The Orioles’ closer, Britton, had looked shaky at best. This is the stuff movies are made of. Donaldson swung at the 1-1 pitch and hit it right at Jonathan Schoop, who turned two and made Britton look passably good in doing so–though he wasn’t. The double play lost the Blue Jays 27.9 percent of their win expectancy for the game (-.279 WPA).
The second worst play was a Blue Jays’ double play as well. In the fifth inning with nobody out, the best hitter among outfielders in all of baseball grounded into a double play. In doing so, Michael Saunders lost the Blue Jays 10.7 percent of their win expectancy (-.107 WPA). Opening the inning with a walk to Encarnacion, it looked like the Blue Jays had perhaps found an opening to crack Gallardo. Alas, after the double play Justin Smoak struck out and Gallardo ended up facing the minimum in his last inning of work.
Seriously though, what has Saunders done for us lately? #GiveUsJayBruce
Schoop started out that double play
That double play in the ninth got me thinking. Instead of focusing on Donaldson’s ball in play, let’s really focus on Schoop’s play this game.
In the third inning with two out, Jonathan Schoop hit a solo homer against Dickey, contributing 10.5 percent of the team’s winning effort in doing so (.105 WPA). It was the Orioles’ third run of the game and all they would need to win. Thanks to a nice play by Ezequiel Carrera and a TOOTBLAN from Joey Rickard, Schoop’s home run only put one run up on the board. The inning could have gone much worse for Dickey, and three runs could have easily made their way across the plate.
The very next inning Schoop committed an error. Comparatively, this play had almost no bearing on the outcome of the game. I just wanted to balance out Schoop doing two good things with him also doing something bad.
R.A. Dickey never gets any run support ever. This is no longer a trend, it is a fact of life as certain as your eventual death.
Sorry to be so morbid. It’s just that first place was on the line you guys. First place. We could have been a first place team again.
When Dickey is on the hill, the Blue Jays have averaged 2.93 runs scored this season. Twice they have been shutout. TWICE. The Blue Jays have been shutout four times this season. Half of them have been when Dickey was pitching.
It’s okay. Breathe. We’re still not halfway through the season. Just breathe. When you look into the abyss, the abyss also looks into you.
Trend to Watch
The Blue Jays are now 4-1 in their last five.
The Blue Jays are now .500 with Jose Bautista on the disabled list.
The Blue Jays are an enigma that cannot be wrapped into any one small sample size. Though they remain only two games back of first place. There are no facts. Only interpretations.
Up Next
The Blue Jays and Orioles wrap up their three-game set with a 1:35pm start time on Sunday. Marcus Stroman will take the hill for the visiting Jays. While Stroman continues to lead all of baseball in groundball rate, the young starter has run into some troubles as of late. Over his past four starts, he’s pitched 23.1 innings, allowing 19 runs–all earned–on 34 hits and eight walks while also giving up four home runs. Furthermore, 37 percent of his batted balls over that time has been rated as hard contact. He had a nice bounce back start against the Phillies his last time out, though his last start against the Orioles was a forgettable 5.1 inning effort in which he allowed four runs on eight hits and a walk earlier this month.
Chris Tillman has been by far the most reliable starter on the Orioles this season, and that’s not only because he’s the only qualified candidate. Tillman is posting the 24th-best strikeout rate in all of baseball at 24.2 percent. In short, he’s putting up the best numbers of his career in almost every category. That being said, those categories include his strand rate and BABIP, which seem uncharacteristically out of his career norms and could indicate some forthcoming regression.
Lead Image: Evan Habeeb – USA Today