Should We Be Worried About Who Leads Off for the Jays?

In this newly stabilized world of Blue Jays baseball, where so many jobs and roles are either already set in stone, or at least written in ink, the observer and the commentator has far fewer items over which to speculate than in previous years. For the most part, there are only two significant between-the-lines questions, or possibly three depending on how you count them. There’s the fifth starter contest, and the associated effect on the composition of the bullpen. Then there’s the question of who hits in the lead-off spot. John Gibbons, before the real fake games began, named Michael Saunders and Kevin Pillar as the primary candidates, with most people assuming that whomever wins is only tentatively appointed to the role pending the return of Devon Travis. One might, judging by spring usage, assume that Gibby is leaning in a particular direction. I’ll leave that aside for a second while we set the table.

As one might expect, given the dearth of items of spring questions, these few draw outsized attention and to provoke an inordinate degree of hand-wringing. My question here: is that warranted?

To lay out the general terms of the discussion, let’s cover some of the premises that are generally taken as a given:

1. That the Blue Jays lack an actual ideal option for the role.
2. That the named candidates to break camp in the role compare unfavorably to the better lead-off hitters in the game to an unacceptable degree.
3. That the most important skill for a lead-off hitter is measured by OBP and there are a couple of better options on the roster than the two named candidates.
4. That Travis will stand to replace the player chosen to break camp with that role if said player fails to measure up while Travis is sidelined.

To look more closely at this question, we need a baseline of what we mean by a good lead-off hitter. Given the (ambitious) expectations concerning Travis, let’s begin with his .361 OBP in slightly more than ⅓ of a season’s worth of games in 2015. Had he posted that figure over a full season, he’d have finished fourth in the majors last year among hitters with 400 plate appearances in the leadoff position. He’d also have been fourth in 2014, and in 2013. That then seems like a reasonable argument for what our upper range expectations should be. The next similar point on the list that gives you the same rank all three years is a .352 OBP, which ranks seventh in each of the last three years. It’s also roughly on the line between the upper and middle third so it’s a respectable result. We’ll call that the mid-range of expectations. For the bottom of our scale, of the 17 players in our sample last year, the player exactly in the middle put up an OBP of .340. For simplicity’s sake, let’s say very good results are around .360, good results are around .350, and landing around .340 is acceptable work in the role.

The other framing question here is how much time we anticipate Devon Travis missing. The honest answer is, we simply don’t know. Obviously, if one presumes that Travis is the savior-in-waiting (more on that in a bit) and that other options are less desirable, then the longer he’s out the more deficit in outcome is accumulated. Still, this exercise is pointless if we don’t assume a theoretical figure to work with. The usual speculation is “late May, early June” and it just so happens that the Blue Jays will complete exactly ⅓ of a season – 54 games – before the dawning of June 1. Let’s go with that. Taking at-bats plus walks as a de facto measure of plate appearances for a team for this exercise, ⅓ of the team’s total in 2015 is 248. So let’s assume that whoever fills in until May 31 will get 248 plate appearances.

What, then, is the marginal difference between the realistic candidates the Blue Jays might consider, and the range of outcomes described above? Accounting 248 plate appearances at each of those levels yields the following range:

89 times on base yields a .359 OBP

87 times on base yields a .351 OBP

84 times on base results in a .339 OBP.

Now that we have a baseline, where do the Blue Jays stand?

First, let’s address the two names that Gibby did not propose, but that many fans have suggested: Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin. Tulo is easy. If our only consideration is OBP, then Tulo solves the problem. Period. However, baseball isn’t simply a matter of numbers and Gibbons is in a much better position to analyze the mental reaction Tulo would have to that role. It’s fair to suspect that if (when?) all other options are found unsatisfying, Tulo would reconsider the role, but for the sake of this exercise, I’ll assume he’d be reluctant to assume it.

Martin gets hot takes because some are still entranced by the .403 OBP he posted during his last year in Pittsburgh. However, that year is a massive outlier. Over the last five years, Martin has had an OBP over .329 just once. Not coincidentally, over the same span he’s had a BABIP over .266 just once – it was .336 in 2014. Just maybe there’s a red flag there? If you total the four years in that sample, other than the outlier year, the resulting .322 OBP is much less compelling. Alternatively, if you prefer the most recent sample, the .329 in 2015 isn’t much more persuasive. He’s only a candidate, in my view, if you assume the worst about Saunders and Pillar.

What of those two? Pillar first, since he provokes considerably more negativity in this conversation. Evaluating Pillar is relatively simple. He reached his nadir as a hitter at the end of May last year. It’s a not quite arbitrary end point as Pillar professes to have made some changes, which produced better results. From June 1st until the end of last season, his OBP was .339, not including a .333 mark in the playoffs. In his career up to that point, it had been .269 and he was coming off a disastrous 27 game stretch. But as much as you’d have to worry about whether that sample size is sufficient, there’s a further complication. That post-turnaround OBP is greatly inflated by the first 28 games of this sample, a period during which his OBP was .413 and he benefited from a rather insane .432 BABiP. From July 3 until the end of the season, his BABIP was an ordinary .289 and his production reflected that, as demonstrated by a modest .313 OBP. This impression is further reinforced if you combine the disastrous stretch with the insane stretch that followed. From May 3 to July 2, his OBP was .318 and his BABiP was .319, fairly ordinary. It’s fair to conclude, then, that Pillar’s range of outcomes might look like this:

Low-end – His production prior to 2015: .274 OBP
Mid-range – His production over all of 2015: .314
Irrationally optimistic – Post June 1: .339

Those would produce, respectively, 68, 78, and 84 times on base. This would obviously tend to support expressions of concern regarding using Pillar in the role. Hold that thought.

The news concerning Saunders is (spoilers!) considerably more optimistic. Those who have voiced concerns about his being a candidate tend to cite his career OBP, but that’s a largely unfair measure. It’s true his career figure is a modest .301, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. There are, however, a variety of samples one may consider in the course of deciding just how optimistic to be. First, though, a caveat – the nine injury-marred games for the Blue Jays in 2015 are excluded from all these samples. With that aside, let’s take a look.

It’s an accepted maxim, for good reason, that more recent data is more valuable than less recent data, as long as the sample size is respectable. By that measure, Saunders grades out well. In 2014 his OBP was .341, in an injury shortened season. If one extends the sample back to June 15, 2013 (a sample size of 161 games) when Saunders came off his own personal month-from-hell, his OBP is .344 and if one wishes to avoid the arbitrary nature of that end-point, his OBP for all of ‘13 and ‘14 combined is still .330 which matches the reasonable expectations set forth above for Russ Martin.  That’s a sample of 210 games, 38% of the games he’s played in his career. If you are particularly cautious and want the last three (active) seasons of work, ‘12-’14, it’s a more modest .320 which, at 63% of his career games, should serve as the absolute floor of reasonable expectations. At that level, in 248 plate appearances, he’d reach base 79 times (equivalent to Pillar’s mid-range). At the mid-range rate of .330 he’d accumulate 82, and at .344 he’d appear on base 85 times.

Oh, and let me mildly digress to say that I’ve found no outlier BABIP stretch in Saunders’ record that is  anything like Pillar’s insane month last June. He did go on a tear at the end of 2012, in which he posted an OBP of .364 (and a SLG of .607!) over 29 games, but his .296 BABiP over that period was almost perfectly average. With Saunders’ numbers, what you see isn’t a mirage.

I’m obliged to note, however, that John Gibbons might disagree. As of this writing, the Blue Jays have played 13 spring games. Kevin Pillar has played in eight of them. He’s been the lead-off hitter in eight of them. Saunders has played in eight games as well, and has hit everywhere from second to seventh, but has not led-off…even when Pillar sat. Does this mean Gibbons has his preference? Or, does it mean he knows what Saunders can do and he’s trying to suss out whether or not Pillar is suited to the job? If that’s what he’s thinking, Pillar hasn’t made the case yet. He’s hitting .190 and has walked only once. Meanwhile, in the admittedly early going, Saunders is hitting .318 with a .348 on base. In any case, Gibby is playing it close to the vest and has not commented on what all this means to him. But I’d argue it’s self evident that based on their track record, Saunders is the considerably superior option to Pillar.

What, you asked though, will happen when Saunders is inevitably hurt? I’m glad you asked! let me take just one moment to direct your attention to the minor league OBP figures for one Dalton Pompey, on the chance you haven’t noticed them before:

2015: .383 combined, .372 in AAA, .405 in AA
2014: .392 combined, .393 in AAA, .378 in AA, .397 in A – plus .358 in the AFL
2013: .358 in Lansing

Minor league career combined? A gaudy .371 which wasn’t against major league pitching but is nevertheless significant. Whatever observations may be made about the readiness of his glove, I’m mystified by those negativist fans who think he won’t hit.

Let’s go back to our original framing questions. Over 1/3 of a season, a satisfactory OBP will see your lead-off man reach base at least 84 times, and if he does so 89 times or more he’ll be one of the better examples in the game. The range of potential outcomes for Pillar is 68-84, and for Saunders 79-85. Here’s the money point: that’s not a huge difference. If we consider 84 acceptable, and Pillar leads off and produces only 68, then that works out to a mere one time on base for every 3.38 games. If he produces what we established as a reasonable expectation, that’s one time every nine games. Or take Saunders, if he sits at the bottom of the range described above, that’s once ever 11 games and reasonably, it’s maybe twice in 1/3 of a season. Saunders has a reasonably good chance of being just fine in the role particularly in this lineup.

What is the summation of all these multitude of words? It is simply this: Settle the heck down! The only way that lead-off will be a major issue is if Gibby installs Pillar, watches him go back to a .269 OBP and ignores it. If you really think he’d do that then you’re beyond my help. Otherwise, the gap between what we get and what is by any measure a good-to-very-good outcome is insignificant  This team isn’t going to struggle on account of what amounts to at worst, one appearance on base ever 9-11 games. So to answer the titular question, no, you shouldn’t be worried.

Finally, as a post-script, I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge one glaring point that is seldom mentioned: we don’t know with any degree of certainty that Devon Travis will continue to get on base at such an impressive rate. Playing the “until Travis returns” game is unreasonable if one is assuming he’ll solve everything when he’s healthy. He might. I hope he does. But if Saunders wins the job (and if healthy, he should) and is in the neighborhood of .340, Travis won’t be automatically thrust into that role as soon as he returns, nor will he need to be. It’s only if both contenders have crashed and burned (and Gibby hasn’t yet resorted to Tulo) that it’s going to be necessary to pin hopes on Travis being for real.

Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports