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	<title>Toronto &#187; Ubaldo Jimenez</title>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 5, Blue Jays 3; J.A.&#8217;s Not Happ-y And He Knows It</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/30/recap-orioles-5-blue-jays-3-j-a-s-not-happ-y-and-he-knows-it/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2016 02:29:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ubaldo Jimenez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6138</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Losing to the team that&#8217;s trailing you in the standings isn&#8217;t fun. It&#8217;s even less fun when that team is the Orioles. And it again gets worse when the Orioles&#8217; starting pitcher for the night was Ubaldo Jimenez. To call this one a heartbreaker may be an understatement. There were positives, however, as Michael Saunders [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Losing to the team that&#8217;s trailing you in the standings isn&#8217;t fun. It&#8217;s even less fun when that team is the Orioles. And it again gets worse when the Orioles&#8217; starting pitcher for the night was Ubaldo Jimenez. To call this one a heartbreaker may be an understatement. There were positives, however, as Michael Saunders had two extra base hits, which scored two of the Jays&#8217; three runs of the game. Given that Saunders had just two other multi extra base hit games over the last two months, this was a nice change.</p>
<p>With that said, things weren&#8217;t entirely peachy for the Blue Jays, as one would imagine looking at the box score. J.A. Happ was not only unable to put up a win and tie Rick Porcello for the league lead in the category, he also may have put up his worst start of the season. With six hits, two home runs, and two walks off of him over 6 1/3 innings of work, it&#8217;s needless to say that Happ struggled against the Orioles offence.</p>
<p>However, it isn&#8217;t the hits or home run against totals that are most suprising; it&#8217;s the lack of strikeouts. Since his &#8216;rebirth&#8217;, J.A. Happ had put up nine straight starts of five or more strikeouts. On Tuesday, he put up three strikeouts, which puts him more in line with his early season ways. It&#8217;s especially interesting because it seemed like people were just starting to accept the new strikeout happy Happ as the norm. Strikeout Happ may still be the norm&#8230;but at least now there is reason for pause.</p>
<p>All things considered, the Orioles have a relatively strong offence. So, worrying too much about one poor start from J.A. Happ is unwarranted. But, the Jays will need to keep an eye on him down the stretch, as he works towards unprecedented (for him) innings totals, and continues to pitch in to October *crosses fingers*.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tuesday&#8217;s top play of the game came via a Matt Wieters off Blue Jays&#8217; reliever Jason Grilli in the 8th inning. It represents the first homer that Grilli has given up in August, and likely clears him of grabbing one homerless month this season. Wieters&#8217; homer increased the Orioles chances of winning by 38%, and the two runs that it added were all that Baltimore needed to etch out a win.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tuesday&#8217;s bottom play of the game came when Russell Martin grounded in to a double play in the first inning. &#8216;Twas a departure from Martin, as he&#8217;s almost put up a 1.000 OPS in August. The groundout came with one out and men on first and second, dropping the Jays&#8217; chances of winnings by 8.6%.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Wednesday&#8217;s game at 7:05 EST in Baltimore will decide the series. While not necessary to maintain first place in the East, it&#8217;d be nice if the Jays could hand a series loss to the Orioles. Although, even if a win doesn&#8217;t come on Wednesday, Jays fans can take solace in the fact that the team has <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">a 94.9% chance at making the playoffs</a>. Meanwhile, the Orioles are now down to 29.5%.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Birds in the Hand: Orioles Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/19/birds-in-the-hand-orioles-series-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/19/birds-in-the-hand-orioles-series-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2016 13:43:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church and Molly Tissenbaum]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Tillman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ubaldo Jimenez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1126</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles April 19th &#8211; April 21st The Blue Jays continue their tour of the American League East, as they head to Baltimore to face the Orioles, the only team in their division they’ve yet to face. Picked by many pundits to finish last in a very competitive division, the Orioles [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">April 19th &#8211; April 21st</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays continue their tour of the American League East, as they head to Baltimore to face the Orioles, the only team in their division they’ve yet to face. Picked by many pundits to finish last in a very competitive division, the Orioles started the season on a tear, winning their first seven games before dropping three of the past four. The Jays are coming off a series split in Boston, with the starting pitching continuing to be good. The Jays only struck out five times in the finale against the Red Sox, but that still puts them at 141 strikeouts after 14 games, an alarming rate, even for a team with a lot of power hitters.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>April 19th &#8211; 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<h4><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong> vs. <strong>Mike Wright</strong></h4>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; ace Marcus Stroman is coming off a strong outing against the Yankees, where he went eight innings and allowed two runs. There’s a lot to like about his starts so far: he’s pitched eight innings twice, and walked only six batters. However, he’s only struck out 12 in just over 21 innings. That&#8217;s something to watch going forward, especially as he gets a longer track record, and hitters start to see him for the second and third time. Stroman has a career 3.00 ERA over 18 innings against Baltimore in his career, and should be able to hold them to a similar level on</p>
<p>Mike Wright is making his second start of the year, having won his first, a five inning outing where he allowed four runs and struck out four batters. The Jays are likely eager to face Wright, as he has a career 9.45 ERA against Toronto over three outings (two of them starts). At some point, the Jays’ offense will have a big game, and Wright provides an opportune chance for that to happen.</p>
<h4>April 20th – 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<h4><strong>R.A. Dickey</strong> vs. <strong>Ubaldo Jimenez</strong></h4>
<p>The usual April struggles for Dickey have continued this season, as he’s yet to pitch past the fifth inning in any of his three outings. Dickey has thrown the fifth-most innings in baseball over the last three years, so a lack of stamina would take away what has been his primary value to the Jays over his tenure with the team: his ability to throw innings. His catcher, Josh Thole, has also struggled in the last two games receiving the knuckleball, a trend which will hopefully right itself soon.</p>
<p>The Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who is making his third start this year. He’s coming off a loss against the Red Sox, a game in which he threw five innings and allowed four runs (is there an echo in here?). Jimenez has a reputation as an inconsistent pitcher with mechanics that can be all over the place, but he’s generally given the Jays fits, sporting a shiny 2.83 ERA over 54 innings against them in the last three seasons.</p>
<h4>April 21st – 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<h4><strong>Marco Estrada</strong> vs. <strong>Chris Tillman</strong></h4>
<p>Expectations were high for Marco Estrada coming into this year, with his performance and a new two year deal cementing his place in the rotation. In his two starts against the Red Sox, Estrada was mostly good, with one bad inning in his second outing leading to his picking up a 4-2 loss. His changeup, one of the best pitches in baseball in 2015, has continued to be devastating in his two outings thus far. Estrada has a 3.42 ERA against the Orioles over three career appearances against them.</p>
<p>Chris Tillman has a 5.11 ERA over two starts and three total appearances this year for the Orioles. He lost his last start against Texas, allowing six runs and nine hits in five and a third innings. This is another matchup the Jays should be looking forward to: in six starts against the Jays in 2015, Tillman sported an ugly 11.72 ERA. Much like Wright in the series opener, this is a chance for the mostly dormant Jays’ bats to wake up.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The most significant news for the Orioles has been pitchers Kevin Gausman and Brian Matusz starting rehab assignments. Both players are expected to rejoin the team shortly, with Matusz being their primary left-hander out of the bullpen, and Gausman potentially rejoining the rotation. Given the dearth of left-handed hitters on the Jays, one assumes Matusz won’t be rushed back for this series. Although with their rotation as it is, the Orioles probably want Gausman back sooner rather than later</p>
<p>For the Jays, the only recent injury update has been this tidbit from Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, on lefthander Aaron Loup:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">LHP Aaron Loup throwing at 90 feet today, feeling normal, needs regular buildup now</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/721729676130041856">April 17, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>There is no timetable for Loup’s return.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4>Pillar in the 8th Spot</h4>
<p>He’s only spent two games in the 8th spot since being moved from the leadoff spot, but Kevin Pillar seems to have found his groove in the last two games. On Sunday afternoon Pillar went 3 for 4 and on Monday put together an impressive afternoon going 3 for 3 with a walk, and he scored once during the Blue Jays 8th inning rally. Pillar spent spring training auditioning for the role in the lead off spot after Ben Revere was traded during the off season, but has been more effective of late towards the bottom of the lineup.</p>
<h4>Mark Trumbo&#8217;s Hot Start</h4>
<p>Mark Trumbo is off to a hot start for the Orioles so far. As of Sunday, Trumbo was hitting .386/.413/.750. On April 15th Trumbo had a two homerun night, both coming in the same inning in a 11-5 Orioles win over the Rangers. His defence has been spotty, which helped the Rangers beat the O’s the following night on a ball he overran, which allowed two runners to come around to score.</p>
<h4>Baseball&#8217;s Two Best Third Basemen</h4>
<p>With arguably two of the best third baseman in the league squaring off against each other in this series, the hot corner will definitely be fun to watch in this series. Despite saying that he is still trying to work out the kinks in his swing, Donaldson is currently hitting .309/.377/.691 in 14 games this year, including 5 homeruns. In 11 games this year, Machado is hitting .383/.431/.723, with 4 homeruns. When they’re not at the plate, keep an eye on the defence of both Machado and Donaldson, who are both known to flash the leather.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Orioles</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Saunders (LF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Rickard (LF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Donaldson (3B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Machado (3B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Bautista (RF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jones (CF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Encarnacion (DH)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Davis (1B)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Tulowitzki (SS)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Trumbo (RF)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Colabello (1B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Wieters (C)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Martin (C)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Alvarez (DH)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Pillar (CF)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Hardy (SS)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Goins (2B)</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Schoop (2B)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>For the second week in a row the Orioles are atop the A.L East, 2.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays coming into the series. The Blue Jays are hoping for more consistency scoring runs both early and late in games, while cutting down on the exorbitant number of strikeouts they’ve had thus far. The Blue Jays will need Stroman to continue to show why he is the ace, ahead of Dickey who has historically struggled in April.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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