<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Toronto &#187; Troy Tulowitzki</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/tag/troy-tulowitzki/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 03:35:47 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>How The Jays Can Live With Troy Tulowitzki</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/06/how-the-jays-can-live-with-troy-tulowitzki/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/06/how-the-jays-can-live-with-troy-tulowitzki/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Sep 2017 10:00:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13298</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki was a surprise acquisition by the Blue Jays in July 2015, an answer to a question no one had really asked. Fans were generally content with Jose Reyes: an exciting offensive player whose declining range was becoming more obvious, but whose contract made him prohibitive to move. The Jays turning Reyes and prospect [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Troy Tulowitzki was a surprise acquisition by the Blue Jays in July 2015, an answer to a question no one had really asked. Fans were generally content with Jose Reyes: an exciting offensive player whose declining range was becoming more obvious, but whose contract made him prohibitive to move. The Jays turning Reyes and prospect Jeff Hoffman into Tulowitzki did, on paper, make them better at shortstop. That Tulo&#8217;s contract was longer than Reyes&#8217; wasn&#8217;t a big deal: he was much better, on both sides of the ball. For a team trying to win right away, any improvement was worthwhile, and Tulo was an improvement.</p>
<p>Tulowitzki has had a disappointing tenure with the Jays, marked by injuries and a potential decline in his skills. The injuries weren&#8217;t a surprise, as he&#8217;s had to deal with those throughout his entire career. The decline is more worrisome, given the length of his contract. His power, average, and walk rate have been trending down since 2014. He&#8217;s not hitting the ball with as much authority. Whether or not his defense has declined depends on who you ask: while Tulowitzki has never been fast (and is still the slowest shortstop in baseball), Baseball Prospectus has him at a solid 2.9 Fielding Runs Above Average, good for eighth in the majors among regular shortstops this season.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s ironic that the Blue Jays might be in a similar position now with Tulowitzki as they were with Reyes a couple years ago: a declining shortstop with a large contract that the team has to live with for the foreseeable future. There probably isn&#8217;t another deal like the one that brought Tulo to town initially, and even if there were, the Jays probably aren&#8217;t in the position to make it. To get Tulo, they gave up a premium prospect in Jeff Hoffman, and the team doesn&#8217;t have many of those to spare at the moment. They&#8217;re not as good a team as they were in 2015 either, so that deal wouldn&#8217;t make sense.</p>
<p>We can assume that, barring some Anthopoulos level chicanery (or another injury) Tulowitzki will be the Jays&#8217; regular shortstop in 2018. There are reasons why this is a good thing. The Jays don&#8217;t have another player ready to start. Prospect Richard Urena had a .645 OPS at AA New Hampshire, and is probably a couple years away from potentially getting the call. Ryan Goins is Ryan Goins. The free agent crop at shortstop is thin beyond Zack Cozart, who&#8217;s working on a career year at age 31, and will probably get more money than he&#8217;s worth. Knowing this, let&#8217;s explore some ways the Jays can work around a potential Tulo decline.</p>
<h3>Have Better Backups</h3>
<p>In hindsight, having better depth was an obvious issue for the Jays coming into this season. With Tulo and the almost-as-often-injured Devon Travis manning the middle infield positions, having reliable backups behind them should have been more of a priority.</p>
<p>On the one hand, this isn&#8217;t as simple as saying &#8220;get more depth&#8221;. Every major league team wants more depth. Good backups tend to move into starting roles, as teams recognize the ascent of talent, and try to make the best of their 25 man roster.</p>
<p>Where the Jays had problems this season wasn&#8217;t just in the depth they had, but also in the skillsets of said depth. The primary backup infielders were Goins and Darwin Barney, who are both solid defensively without much else to offer. With most teams running a short bench, the need for players with different skills becomes more apparent. It certainly was a problem when the Jays were running both Goins and Barney out most nights, creating two gaping holes in a lineup that couldn&#8217;t afford them.</p>
<p>The team will probably look to keep one of Barney or Goins for next season, and should probably do so. But for that second infielder spot, they could look for someone who could hit a little &#8211; like a Steve Pearce, except someone who can play the infield. This would not only help with a potential injury, but give the Jays a pinch-hitting option in the late innings, something they haven&#8217;t really had for some time.</p>
<h3>Don&#8217;t Get Hurt</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; plan for 2017 probably didn&#8217;t include both middle infielders missing extended amounts of time. There aren&#8217;t many teams in baseball who have a plan for missing both their second baseman and their shortstop.</p>
<p>Whether you believe Tulo&#8217;s injury woes are a result of bad luck, or a systemic problem, isn&#8217;t what we&#8217;re looking at here. But if either he or Travis (or Josh Donaldson, who missed some time) are healthier next season, that helps the Jays immensely. The drop off from the starters to the bench was cataclysmic, so just being able to pencil Tulo into the lineup helps the team, even if he isn&#8217;t as good as he was in Colorado.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s not much the team can do here to help: perhaps working some more rest days during the season would help, and ensuring he&#8217;s fully recovered from his ankle injury before coming back. But improved injury luck is an easy way for the team to get more from Tulowitzki than they have this season.</p>
<h3>Improve Elsewhere</h3>
<p>If the Jays can&#8217;t upgrade at shortstop, then it follows that the team could look to improve at other positions, to offset whatever deficits they may see at a position they can&#8217;t change. As for the Jays, there are no shortage of potential opportunities this off-season to improve a sputtering lineup.</p>
<p>On the infield, we have second base, where a returning Travis or a depth acquisition (as we discussed previously) could improve on the Goins/Barney platoon that&#8217;s seen far too much time this season. The corners are locked down, assuming Justin Smoak and Josh Donaldson both return. Designated hitter Kendrys Morales has had an unremarkable season, and could be on the block. It&#8217;s probable one of he or Steve Pearce gets moved- while Pearce has the better contract and more positional flexibility, it&#8217;s that which would make him a more viable asset to other teams.</p>
<p>The outfield is wide open outside of Kevin Pillar, who has also had a down season offensively and could be pushed by the plethora of outfield prospects the Jays have in the minors. Ezequiel Carrera is having a career year, and might have an increased role. Teoscar Hernandez, Dwight Smith Jr, Dalton Pompey, and Anthony Alford could all figure into the 2018 outfield conversation. Franchise icon Jose Bautista has had a disappointing season, and probably won&#8217;t be back as a starter. But his spot is also one that could be much better next year with even a passable regular.</p>
<p>All of this doesn&#8217;t even get to the starting pitching, which had its own injury and luck troubles this season. But there, too, is an opportunity for the Jays to be better, whether by luck or performance. And if the pitching is better, then the Jays don&#8217;t need massive improvements offensively &#8211; just enough to get back to average.</p>
<p>We know what Tulowitzki has been previously, and it gives us hope. We look for that bounce-back, that Tulo can be the star he had been in Colorado. It&#8217;s likely we&#8217;ll see flashes of it as he gets older. There will be days when he can turn on a fastball, and times when he continues to show defensive brilliance, even as he loses some of his athleticism and gets older. Tulo will have value beyond what he provides on the field, as great players do, showing others what it takes to be as good as he was earlier in his career. But even if Tulo does continue to decline, the Jays have ways to work with him, ensuring that they get the most from their star shortstop, and are able to build a team around someone who&#8217;s probably going to be there for a long time.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/06/how-the-jays-can-live-with-troy-tulowitzki/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Rowdy Tellez Is Making His Way to Toronto One Page of Notes at a Time</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/rowdy-tellez-is-making-his-way-to-toronto-one-page-of-notes-at-a-time/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/rowdy-tellez-is-making-his-way-to-toronto-one-page-of-notes-at-a-time/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Mar 2017 10:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9906</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[DUNEDIN – From the moment he was drafted, Rowdy Tellez gained minor celebrity status among fans in Canada because of his peculiar yet endearing name. That fame drifted off into the background over the past few seasons as Tellez has been developing in the low minors, occasionally resurfacing with a #LetsGetRowdy on Twitter during a particular stretch [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DUNEDIN – From the moment he was drafted, Rowdy Tellez gained minor celebrity status among fans in Canada because of his peculiar yet endearing name. That fame drifted off into the background over the past few seasons as Tellez has been developing in the low minors, occasionally resurfacing with a #LetsGetRowdy on Twitter during a particular stretch of dominance from the 22-year-old first baseman. However, after a big 2016 in AA-New Hampshire which saw him post a gaudy triple slash line of .297/.387/.530 at age 20 and then the World Baseball Classic taking key roster players away from the Blue Jays for a few weeks, Tellez was given an extended stay in Dunedin. With this, the hills came alive with the sound of Rowdy fans.</p>
<p>Being in Dunedin with the big league club from the start of camp until March 19th allowed the young first baseman to take advantage of his situation. After a minor league game this past Tuesday against the Phillies AAA squad at the Bobby Mattick Training Center, I spoke to him about his experience. He said it was &#8220;crucial&#8221; for him in his development, thanks to being able &#8220;to learn from a lot of great guys.”</p>
<p>Who were those &#8220;great guys&#8221;? The first player he mentioned was none other than Justin Smoak, the man who people were hoping would lose his job to Tellez after a hot start to the spring slate. Smoak helped with his defense, which scouts have had questions about for Tellez&#8217;s entire career. He has worked extremely hard on improving that area of his game since coming into the Blue Jays organization though, because to him being a DH is a rarity reserved for the likes of David Ortiz.</p>
<p><i>“If you&#8217;re just a power hitting first baseman, you&#8217;re going to be a DH… Everybody can knock me for my defense all they want, but I&#8217;m here now, and [was] one of the top defenders in the minor leagues last year.”</i></p>
<p>What Tellez was referring to in that comment was his .992 fielding percentage from 2016, where he made a grand total of 7 errors in his 870 1/3 innings played in the field. “When you don&#8217;t make many errors, I guess you&#8217;re a bad fielder”, he quipped before adding that scouts could keep on saying he is “incapable”.</p>
<p>His help from veterans wasn&#8217;t just limited to the defensive side of the ball, however. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Troy Tulowitzki all provided tips on how to master the side of his game that has gotten him to where he is now. The chat with Tulowitzki garnered national attention when Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro went on the radio with Jeff Blair and said that Tellez had taken six pages of notes at a dinner between the two. The dinner story spread quickly on the internet, with the idea of the publicly quiet Tulowitzki being taken out to dinner by a 22-year-old prospect instantly becoming a meme. However, Tellez says we got it a bit wrong.</p>
<p><i>“Somebody wrote that I took him out to dinner, but I asked [him] to go out to dinner because I wanted to learn. Obviously he wasn&#8217;t going to let me pay.”</i></p>
<p>And unfortunately, the mental picture so many have drawn of Tellez sitting at a table across from Tulowitzki with a note pad and pen hastily scrambling thoughts down in between bites is not exactly what occurred on the night of March 7th at Casa Tina. In fact, the notes were taken at home, later that evening.</p>
<p><i>“I went back home and took notes and wrote down everything that I could remember so I could keep it all. You can’t remember everything. So, [I] wrote it all down, and ended up having six pages of notes on my phone.”</i></p>
<p>This wasn&#8217;t an isolated incident either. Shapiro told a story where Major League veteran Sean Casey was in camp and talking to Tellez, and Casey thought he was texting instead of listening to what he was saying. It turned out that Tellez was typing notes on his phone. When asked about this habit of taking notes, Tellez said that he “wants to learn as much” as he can when given the opportunity.</p>
<p><i>“These guys were successful in the big leagues and as much as I want to learn, and how much I ask questions and pick their brain, I won&#8217;t be able to remember it all from everybody. So, I write things down. I keep a little book. Even as a hitter I keep books on pitchers. I like to write things down.”</i></p>
<p>That diligence is what gives Tellez an edge, and makes him more likely to succeed going forward. In Toronto, we aren’t strangers to prospects who get complacent because they believe in their talent, only to fizzle out at the top level because they don&#8217;t have what it takes. Tellez is different. Scouts complained about his defense, so he trained as hard as he could until the tune of the scouts changed. There were those who said his bat wasn’t strong enough, so he worked and worked until his offense was 52 park adjusted points better than the league average in AA-New Hampshire.</p>
<p>All of that is reason enough to believe that although he is starting the season in AAA-Buffalo, Tellez will find his way to Toronto soon enough. When he finally gets there, Tellez is fully ready and excited for what it means to play for the Blue Jays: “You&#8217;re playing for a whole country, and nobody can say that in professional baseball, except for the Toronto Blue Jays&#8221;, he said in the closing parts of the interview.</p>
<p>Until he gets to Toronto, Rowdy has a couple of things on his mind:</p>
<p><i>“[I’m] focused on winning, and taking my men to war.”</i></p>
<p>A little intense? Sure. Endearing in that way that you know he’s going to be a fan favourite? One hundred percent. #LetsGetRowdy.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/rowdy-tellez-is-making-his-way-to-toronto-one-page-of-notes-at-a-time/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Fly Ball Revolution Has Arrived in Toronto</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Mar 2017 10:04:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9322</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[2016 was an odd year for home runs; they went up by 14% between 2015 and 2016. The last time we saw so many home runs was in 2000, when the home run leaderboard looked like this. When this historic spike began to come into focus down the stretch last season, baseball writers had a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>2016 was an odd year for home runs; they went up by 14% between 2015 and 2016. The last time we saw so many home runs was in 2000, when the home run leaderboard looked like <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2000-batting-leaders.shtml">this</a>. When this historic spike began to come into focus down the stretch last season, baseball writers had a field day trying to explain it. They enlisted physicists and statisticians. They said that the balls might be <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/">juiced</a>. They blamed the historically bad Reds&#8217; bullpen. They thought maybe steroids were back.</p>
<p>But when nobody could find a satisfying stats-based explanation for the long ball lunacy, a few writers began to turn to philosophy. The explanation here isn&#8217;t as easy as hitters closing their eyes and meditating about glorious dingers. According to interviews with several players, any explanation behind the power surge starts with the general shift in the Majors from a line drive-based approach to a fly ball-heavy hitting philosophy. Leading that group of players are Josh Donaldson, J.D. Martinez, Marlon Byrd, and Justin Turner.</p>
<p>This theory has two parts. The first is that it just makes more sense to go for fly balls. In 2016, batters hit <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=1&amp;season=2016&amp;month=18&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ss&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0">.241 with a .715 slugging mark on fly balls</a> versus a .238 average and .258 slugging mark on ground balls. The second part is that when this approach turns someone like J.D. Martinez or Justin Turner into a superstar, other Major League hitters take notice and try to emulate it.</p>
<p>At Fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan and Travis Sawchik have been compiling mostly anecdotal evidence for this theory that you can read about <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/has-the-fly-ball-revolution-begun/">here</a>, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinez-debunks-conventional-wisdom-thinks-a-tipping-point-is-near/">here</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-hitters-are-getting-off-the-ground/">here</a>. I won&#8217;t go any deeper into the weeds, because what interests me in this is Josh Donaldson&#8217;s role at the vanguard of this fly ball revolution.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just say NO&#8230;. to ground balls. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MLB?src=hash">#MLB</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/striveforexcellence?src=hash">#striveforexcellence</a> <a href="https://t.co/6YANrOZHQE">pic.twitter.com/6YANrOZHQE</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Josh Donaldson (@BringerOfRain20) <a href="https://twitter.com/BringerOfRain20/status/837061212705812488">March 1, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>There&#8217;s that tweet, and there&#8217;s this <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyWNCrxVzPU">amazing video</a> on MLB Network. You could argue that Donaldson has been the highest profile proselytiser for the fly ball approach, which makes Toronto the perfect test case for this theory. If I was a struggling bat in the Jays lineup, I would take every piece of advice I could from Donaldson. Players on the same team talk, a lot. That&#8217;s why the Rays pitchers all throw the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-power-of-pitch-lineage/">same change up</a>.</p>
<p>Now, the Jays are one of only six teams that actually hit <em>fewer</em> home runs in 2016 than in 2015. So Toronto&#8217;s offence was explosive independent of whatever mystery juice may have crept into baseball last season, but let&#8217;s see if we can find any evidence of how Donaldson&#8217;s philosophy has shaped the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>The best place to start is at the root of this philosophy: average launch angles. Unfortunately, Statcast data only goes back to 2015, so we can&#8217;t compare the pre-Donaldson Jays to the current core, but even the past two years are revealing. For starters, the team&#8217;s average launch angle rose from 8.8° to 10.5°. Here are the batters who gained the most lift on average.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-9573" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/launch-angle-gainers.png" alt="launch angle gainers" width="510" height="229" /></p>
<p>Donaldson practiced what he preached, adding 4.5° on average according to Baseball Savant. Travis and Martin had big jumps. Encarnacion had one of highest average launch angles in the league (top 20). And at the very top of the list is Smoak, who exemplifies the kind of struggling hitter who might try to seek advice from a successful hitter such as Donaldson. Seven degrees makes me want to bust out a protractor.</p>
<p>Now that we&#8217;ve identified Donaldson&#8217;s disciples, let&#8217;s see if those increased launch angles translated into more fly balls.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-9583" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/fb-gainers1.png" alt="fb gainers" width="510" height="295" /></a></p>
<p>Again, Smoak and Travis saw big increases. Somehow, Tulowitzki managed to increase his fly ball percentage by 10% despite only raising his average launch angle by 2.2°. That massive jump in FB% pushed his home run total up from 17 to 24 and raised his ISO from .160 to .189, but Tulowitzki&#8217;s slugging percentage actually remained the same due to a corresponding drop-off in doubles. This could be a sign of Tulowitzki over-emphasizing fly balls at the expense of line drives to the gaps.</p>
<p>Of those six Jays, Tulowitzki was actually the only home run gainer on a rate basis. You might expect Donaldson and Encarnacion to take small steps back after beastly 2015 campaigns, but Smoak and Travis seemed like candidates for power surges according to their FB% and launch angle gains.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="  aligncenter wp-image-9622" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/hr-gainers1.png" alt="hr gainers" width="499" height="263" /></a></p>
<p>Again, we only have average launch angle data for the past two years, but for an entire team to jump from an average 8.8° to 10.5° seem significant to me. What&#8217;s more, the team&#8217;s hard hit rate jumped from 29.7% to 33.1% while the team&#8217;s HR/FB and average exit velocity remained essentially the same. That suggests that the Jays got a little unlucky with homers in 2016.</p>
<p>It&#8217;d be interesting to talk to Tulowitzki, Smoak and Travis to see if they&#8217;ve intentionally adopted Donaldson&#8217;s fly ball heavy approach. Looking at stats can only tell us so much. Still, if those three maintain their launch angle and fly ball gains from 2016, they could be primed for juicy home run totals this year.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/17/the-fly-ball-revolution-has-arrived-in-toronto/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 47: Seeing Red (Sox)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/08/artificial-turf-wars-ep-47-seeing-red-sox/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/08/artificial-turf-wars-ep-47-seeing-red-sox/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Mar 2017 11:00:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[injuries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9290</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way. Episode 47 Matt Kory of Baseball Prospectus stops by to discuss the Red Sox as part of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 47</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/mattymatty2000" target="_blank">Matt Kory</a> of Baseball Prospectus stops by to discuss the Red Sox as part of the AL East preview series. He discusses the issues related to David Price&#8217;s health, compares the Jays rotation to the one in Boston, and looks at which hitters are likely to get better, and which ones are likely to regress. Greg and Josh also discuss the lingering injury to Devon Travis, the rumors surrounding Brett Lawrie, the spring debuts of Steve Pearce and Troy Tulowitzki, Angel Pagan rumours, and Josh&#8217;s observations from Florida. They also answer listener questions, and give out a Do-Over and a Gold Star.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/871/show_9871251_2017_03_08_04_29_34.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/871/show_9871251_2017_03_08_04_29_34.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/08/artificial-turf-wars-ep-47-seeing-red-sox/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
<enclosure url="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/871/show_9871251_2017_03_08_04_29_34.mp3" length="61851826" type="audio/mpeg" />
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>An Early End to the Blue Jays Comeback (and Season)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/20/an-early-end-to-the-blue-jays-comeback-and-season/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/20/an-early-end-to-the-blue-jays-comeback-and-season/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Oct 2016 16:52:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 ALCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland Indians]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7626</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO – Well, that didn’t last long. The hope, the optimism, the belief &#8211; they all died quickly in the Blue Jays’ ALCS Game 5 matinee against Cleveland. Cleveland scored three times, once in the first, then again in the third and fourth, and the Jays hardly threatened, if ever. Ryan Merritt threw slop that [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO – Well, that didn’t last long. The hope, the optimism, the belief &#8211; they all died quickly in the Blue Jays’ ALCS Game 5 matinee against Cleveland.</p>
<p>Cleveland scored three times, once in the first, then again in the third and fourth, and the Jays hardly threatened, if ever. Ryan Merritt threw slop that Toronto couldn’t hit, and then the bullpen came in and did bullpen things.</p>
<p>It was another exciting season in Toronto, but now it’s over. An offense that struggled all September reared its ugly head at the worst possible time. Even solid pitching up and down the Jays staff couldn’t help them. They needed to be perfect and they weren’t.</p>
<p>If you’re a Jays fan there’s a lot to bemoan. The team is better than it performed in the ALCS, and certainly better than their 11-16 September. But you also must tip your cap to Cleveland. With two fantastic starters out with injury manager, Terry Francona mixed and matched his way to a World Series berth.</p>
<p>“We grinded. We battled. The other team just did a bit more than us,” Russell Martin said. “They pitched extremely well all the way through the whole series – their starters, their bullpen, everybody, they played good defence. They didn’t make too many mistakes. I feel like they made one mistake and that was the game we won…But overall they deserved it, they played really well.”</p>
<p>With neither offense performing at peak levels it came down to pitching and key hits, and it seemed that more often than not Cleveland found a way to come through at critical times, especially early in games. In fact Toronto outhit Cleveland 32-25 in the series but were outscored 12-8 in an extremely low-scoring series.</p>
<p>The loss hit the players pretty hard. The clubhouse was very sombre after the game. A lot of man hugs and best wishes were given, and players were packing up and putting things into boxes, some knowing they may never be in that clubhouse again. Part of that mood stemmed from the attitude and belief that they were better than they performed, and had a whole lot more fight left in them. None of them ready for the season to be over.</p>
<p>“I wish we were still playing. This team had a lot left in it. Just came up a little short,” Marco Estrada said.</p>
<blockquote><p>“I wish we were still playing. This team had a lot left in it. Just came up a little short.” &#8211; Marco Estrada</p></blockquote>
<p>“I think not winning games is the biggest disappointment,” Kevin Pillar said. “We were in every game and that’s all you can ask for this time of year we just didn’t come up with a big hit.</p>
<p>“Each and every one of us, you can look at everyone in this room, everyone had opportunities to drive in some runs and it just didn’t work out that way. It’s unfortunate, but everyone’s going to go home, reflect on it, improve, and come back and look forward to doing it again.”</p>
<p>That was the overwhelming silver lining of a season now lost. There’s a returning core for the Blue Jays that should make them a viable playoff candidate regardless of what moves are made in the offseason.</p>
<p>The strength of the team, the rotation, stays fully intact &#8211; minus the likely departure of R.A. Dickey &#8211; with Francisco Liriano the heir to the fifth starter role. Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Devon Travis, Kevin Pillar, and Russell Martin are also all under contract, meaning the defence up the middle and a part of the heart of the order will be returning. Lastly, the team’s best bullpen piece, closer Roberto Osuna, will continue to close out games and Joe Biagini and likely Jason Grilli will be there to help get him the ball. There’s a lot to work with even if Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders, and Brett Cecil find work elsewhere. Those holes will be filled, but it all starts with starting pitching and defense, and the Jays should have that in spades entering 2017.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I’m sure there will be some disappointments and grumbling and complaining about how you fell short again, but that’s not coming from me, because I know what these guys did, and I think it’s a pretty good accomplishment.&#8221; &#8211; John Gibbons</p></blockquote>
<p>That, however, doesn’t take the sting out of Wednesday’s loss for fans. But after 22 years without a playoff berth, coupled with back to back trips to the American League Championship Series, there’s a lot to be thankful for too.</p>
<p>“The tough part is getting in (to the playoffs),” manager John Gibbons. “So many good teams out there. In the American League we look at it all the time. All the divisions are good and competitive. To stay on top or get close to the top, near the top, it takes a lot. A lot of things have got to go your way.</p>
<p>“I’m sure there will be some disappointments and grumbling and complaining about how you fell short again, but that’s not coming from me, because I know what these guys did, and I think it’s a pretty good accomplishment. The key is we want to take that next step on of these days, hopefully it’s next year. But these guys, they did a hell of a job.”</p>
<p>That doesn’t make the result any easier to swallow. Everyone wanted more; the fans, the players, the coaches, the staff. Everyone thought this team had more to give, but just like last season they fell just short. An admirable accomplishment, it’s just that they wanted more.</p>
<p>“Both times that we lost it sucked equally,” Martin said. “This sucks. It’s part of the game. Only one team goes home happy. Unfortunately it’s not us.”</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/20/an-early-end-to-the-blue-jays-comeback-and-season/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Rangers 3; Toronto Holds on to Take 2-0 Series Lead</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/recap-blue-jays-5-rangers-3-toronto-holds-on-to-take-2-0-series-lead/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/recap-blue-jays-5-rangers-3-toronto-holds-on-to-take-2-0-series-lead/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2016 21:35:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7327</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are heading home with a 2-0 series lead in their ALDS matchup against the Texas Rangers. With a 5-3 win in Game two this afternoon in Arlington, the Jays have put themselves in the best position possible ahead of Game three Sunday night at the Rogers Centre. No one expected this afternoon’s [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are heading home with a 2-0 series lead in their ALDS matchup against the Texas Rangers. With a 5-3 win in Game two this afternoon in Arlington, the Jays have put themselves in the best position possible ahead of Game three Sunday night at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>No one expected this afternoon’s game to be the laugher that Game one turned out to be and it most definitely wasn’t, with the Rangers mounting a late rally that had the Blue Jays use every high leverage reliever at their disposal to lock down the game.</p>
<p>For the second game in a row, the offence that had disappeared for most of September reappeared at Globe Life Park, providing the Jays’ pitching staff with a five run cushion, albeit in the most unexpected of ways. Unless you expected Kevin Pillar and Ezekiel Carrera to go yard off of Texas co-ace Yu Darvish, the former on a pitch that was closer to his eyeballs than it was the strike zone. More predictably, Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion contributed home runs of their own.</p>
<p>Despite not being as dominant as he was throughout the course of the regular season, J.A. Happ was able to limit the Rangers to one run over five plus innings pitched. Happ racked up 84 pitches and surrendered nine hits but consistently worked his way out of jams with runners on to keep the Blue Jays in control before handing the ball over to the bullpen.</p>
<p>The Rangers have become known for mounting late season comebacks this season and as John Gibbons started to dip into his bullpen it looked for a moment as if they may be ready to author another one this afternoon. The Rangers’ propensity for late inning comebacks and the Blue Jays’ sometimes shaky (and currently ailing) bullpen made for a nerve-racking ending to a hardly fought game.</p>
<p>Francisco Liriano, entered the game in the eighth inning with a three-run lead, but after surrendering a leadoff double and walk around an Elvis Andrus fly ball, he was struck in the back of the head/neck. It is unclear exactly where the ball struck the Jays’ lefty, but it was reported by <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottyMacThinks/status/784495142891687937" target="_blank">TSN’s Scott MacArthur</a> that he was taken to a local hospital. Fingers crossed that Liriano is alright and that the move is only precautionary.</p>
<p>The horrific play ended with Rangers on the corners and a 5-3 Blue Jays’ lead. This made John Gibbons call on Roberto Osuna &#8211; who left Tuesday’s Wild Card game with a shoulder issue of his own &#8211; in order to preserve the Blue Jays’ lead.</p>
<p>Osuna was absolutely fantastic and locked things down for a five-out save, throwing 31 pitches in the process.</p>
<p>Other Notes:</p>
<h4>Sportsmanlike Conduct</h4>
<p>One of the more civil exchanges that we’ve witnessed between these two baseball teams occurred in the bottom of the third inning this afternoon at Globe Life Park. When Russell Martin discarded his mask while making a play on a pop up in foul territory, Rougned Odor picked it up and returned Martin his mask after the play. With all of the bad blood, bad fans and stupid behavior that surrounds the Jays/Rangers rivalry, it’s nice to see that these teams and players can indeed be civil with each other.</p>
<h4><strong>Injuries Mounting</strong></h4>
<p>Devon Travis was scratched minutes before the game with what is being described as “right knee irritation”. Roberto Osuna had to come out of the game on Tuesday and Francisco Liriano today. Joaquin Benoit is inactive and Josh Donaldson is likely still battling his hip injury, amongst other things. Thankfully, pitching with a herniated disk in his back seems to be absolutely no problem for Marco Estrada, but in any case, the Blue Jays are battling injuries to many of their key contributors. Hopefully Liriano is okay, and the travel day gives the rest of the ailing Jays an opportunity to rest and recover, as much as they possibly can.</p>
<h4><strong>Controversial Replay Call Goes Toronto’s Way</strong></h4>
<p>Ian Desmond&#8217;s decision to break for home after hesitating momentarily on an Adrian Beltre ground ball with one out in the seventh inning resulted in as close a play as you will ever see. While Desmond may have beat the tag at home (the umpires deemed replay evidence inconclusive), his risky decision cost the Rangers. With the infield back and a four run lead, the Blue Jays were conceding the run. Desmond’s initial hesitation hurt the Rangers and allowed the Blue Jays to sustain their four-run cushion heading into the eighth inning.</p>
<h4><strong>What it Means Going Forward</strong></h4>
<p>Game three of the ALDS goes Sunday night in Toronto, with Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA) taking on Colby Lewis (6-5, 3.71 ERA). Toronto heads home with a 2-0 stranglehold on the series, but we don’t have to look too far back to see how easily that type of lead can vanish. Anything can happen in a five-game series and don’t be surprised if and when it does.</p>
<p>While it might feel like the right time to start giving it to the Rangers and their fans, the job isn&#8217;t done just yet. The always-wise Tao of Steib reminds us:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There are some boastful witticisms I&#39;d like to share, but I recall that those guys won game 1 last year.</p>
<p>&mdash; Tao of Stieb (@TaoofStieb) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb/status/784191789502701568">October 7, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It&#8217;s as true today as it was yesterday.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sport</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/recap-blue-jays-5-rangers-3-toronto-holds-on-to-take-2-0-series-lead/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 10, Rangers 1; Estrada Shines While Texas Falters</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/06/recap-blue-jays-10-rangers-1-estrada-shines-while-texas-falters/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/06/recap-blue-jays-10-rangers-1-estrada-shines-while-texas-falters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2016 23:41:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As soon as Edwin Encarnacion launched his walk-off home run on Tuesday night, talk in the baseball world shifted to how the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays would react as they revisited their year-old rivalry for at least another three games, possibly for four or five. If their were any concerns that either team  would revert to child [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As soon as Edwin Encarnacion launched his walk-off home run on Tuesday night, talk in the baseball world shifted to how the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays would react as they revisited their year-old rivalry for at least another three games, possibly for four or five. If their were any concerns that either team  would revert to child like antics instead of focusing on the task at hand of winning the baseball game, they were quickly quashed, as both the Rangers and Blue Jays came out to play baseball today, leaving the promotion of violence to <a href="https://twitter.com/Wilnerness590/status/784106083753205760" target="_blank">Rangers fans</a> and their <a href="https://twitter.com/StevensonFWST/status/784127252933980160" target="_blank">young children</a>.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista stepped up to the plate with Josh Donaldson standing at first base and two out in the first inning to a chorus of boos, but he was unable to do any damage, flying out to left fielder Carlos Gomez. The Blue Jays were close to getting in business again in the second inning, as with two outs, Kevin Pillar grounded to shortstop and almost beat the throw by Elvin Andrus, but a challenge by manager John Gibbons was not able to overturn the call on the field.</p>
<p>However, the Blue Jays finally broke through against Cole Hamels in the third inning after putting up some good at-bats against him earlier. Ezequiel Carrera, batting ninth in the lineup today, worked a walk with one out, and moved up to second base on a wild pitch while Josh Donaldson was at the plate. Donaldson then laced a double off of the glove of gold glove winner and future Hall of Fame third baseman Adrian Beltre, making the score 1-0 for Toronto. Not to be outdone, Edwin Encarnacion hit a single off of the glove of pitcher Cole Hamels, putting men on the corners with one out for Texas&#8217; favourite Blue Jay, Jose Bautista. Hamels tried his best, but Bautista won an eight pitch battle against the 2008 NLCS and WS MVP, hitting a line drive single to centre field, scoring Donaldson. Russell Martin then walked to load the bases for Troy Tulowitzki, who effectively ended this game with a three-run triple which increased the Blue Jays&#8217; win probability by 17.4 percentage points. At the end of the inning, half an hour had passed, Hamels threw 42 pitches, and the Blue Jays found themselves leading the Rangers 5-0.</p>
<p>The main story today was on the pitching side of things for the Blue Jays, as Marco Estrada delivered yet another memorable postseason performance. Estrada held the Rangers scoreless through eight innings, until surrendering a lone run in the ninth. Marco&#8217;s signature pop up and weak flyball inducing ability was on display in Arlington, as he was able to retire the Rangers in the air seven times. His fastball &amp; change up mix baffled the Rangers all afternoon long, helping Marco strike out six batters and allow only four hits.</p>
<p>Estrada allowed a leadoff single in the sixth inning, but as he is wont to do, he quickly ended the threat, with some help from his catcher Russ Martin. Elvis Andrus was running on the 3-2 pitch from Estrada, but Shin Soo-Choo flailed at the 77 MPH change up, and Martin gunned it to second base, allowing Devon Travis to make the tag and record the strike &#8216;em out, throw &#8216;em out double play. Estrada followed that up with another strike out, again swinging on a 77 MPH change up, sending Carlos Gomez back to the bench in sadness. The lone Rangers run scored in the ninth on a triple and ground out.</p>
<p>A secondary storyline today was the Rangers playing a fundamentally unsound game of baseball throughout, costing them a shot at victory in the first game of this best-of-five series. Not only did those two balls go off of gloves in the third inning, but on Tulowitzki&#8217;s bases clearing triple, centre fielder Ian Desmond seemed to have lost track of where the fence was, and pulled up early when it looked like he could have made the catch fairly easily. Then in the fourth inning, an errant throw from Elvis Andrus let Devon Travis reach base, and a passed ball from Jonathan Lucroy moved him up one base and helped him score when Josh Donaldson hit a single to centre field. That made the score 7-0 for the good guys, as Melvin Upton Jr. had lead off the inning with a solo home run earlier.</p>
<p>Bautista was not satisfied with a 7-0 victory, so he decided to cash three more by hitting a long home run off of Jake Diekman in the ninth inning following leadoff singles from Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. That brought the score to 10-0, a huge blowout that is hopefully a sign of things to come. Donaldson&#8217;s single was his fourth hit on the night, as he finished 4-4 with a walk, easily putting up the best offensive performance on the team. Supporting him were Bautista&#8217;s two hits and four RBI, Tulowitzki&#8217;s three hits and three RBI, and Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s 1-3 with two walk day.</p>
<p>Tomorrow, the Blue Jays will be back at it in Texas at 1:00 PM EST, hoping to build off of their thrilling-yet-not-stressful game one 10-1 victory. They were able to take the crowd out of it early in this one, so much so that just a couple of hours after they stood up to boo him, by the time the seventh inning rolled around, the Rangers fans couldn&#8217;t be bothered to jeer Bautista when he approached the batter&#8217;s box for his at-bat. Tomorrow, J.A. Happ will look to emulate Estrada, and the bats will attempt to stay hot against Yu Darvish. If it is anything like today&#8217;s game, you will not want to miss it.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/06/recap-blue-jays-10-rangers-1-estrada-shines-while-texas-falters/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: The Frustratingly Good Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/28/this-week-in-blue-jays-the-frustratingly-good-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/28/this-week-in-blue-jays-the-frustratingly-good-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2016 11:26:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[frustrating]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5997</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays might just be the most frustrating first place team that has ever existed. At the very least, it has certainly felt that way over the past two weeks. What, with the inconsistent nature of the offense, the shaky pitching performances and opposing players’ ground balls that somehow, mysteriously, manage to find [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays might just be the most frustrating first place team that has ever existed. At the very least, it has certainly felt that way over the past two weeks.</p>
<p>What, with the inconsistent nature of the offense, the shaky pitching performances and opposing players’ ground balls that somehow, mysteriously, manage to find a hole. Meanwhile the Jays can’t seem to buy themselves a base hit.</p>
<p>And yet, after 129 games the Blue Jays have a 73-56 record: the exact same record that they had at this point last season. They lead the AL East by a full game over the Boston Red Sox, which is also roughly the same, as they held a 1.5 game lead over the Yankees in 2015. So why, then, does there seem to be so much more angst amongst the fan base?</p>
<p>Perhaps it’s the fact that last season, the AL East was only a two-horse race. While the Jays and Yankees were battling it out for first, the Orioles sat nine games back in third place, well out of the playoff conversation. This year, the race is much tighter. Just three games separate the Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles. The wild card race is also much more congested than it was last season. Currently, the Red Sox have a 1.5 game lead over the Orioles for the first wild card, but Detroit, Seattle, Houston Kansas City and New York are all within 2.5 games of the second. Last season, the Texas Rangers were four games back of the Yankees for the first wild card while only Minnesota and Los Angeles were within 2.5 games of the second wild card.</p>
<p>With so much parity, each game feels like it’s a must-win, and thus as a fan it’s easy to be swept up in the excitement of a win, and become irrationally angry at a loss. It <em>feels</em> as though one or two bad losses, especially if coupled with a Red Sox or Orioles victory, could derail the entire season. When the <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/disturbing-offensive-trend-continues-blue-jays-finale-vs-angels/" target="_blank">lowly Angels take two of three</a> on the Jays&#8217; home turf, it&#8217;s difficult to maintain perspective, to remember that good teams sometimes lose to bad teams (as the Red Sox did to the Rays) for seemingly imperceptible reasons, because there are blips within a 162 game season that cannot be explained.</p>
<p>Perhaps, too, is the fact that this year feels different because, as a fan base, <em>we</em> are different than we were last season. Those who have been following this team for any length of time remembers the all those years following the glory days of 1992/1993, years of toiling in mediocrity inside a half-empty Dome, eleven seasons of below-.500 baseball that ended with the refrain “maybe next season”. And, the way 2015 started out, it appeared as though, despite all the talent, despite #NapTogether followed by June’s eleven game win streak, the Jays would once again fade away.</p>
<p>On July 28th, the day Troy Tulowitzki was traded to Toronto, the Jays were one game below .500 and eight games out of first, chasing three other teams. And then, with newly acquired David Price in the fold, the Jays took three of four from the Kansas City Royals, including that emotional bean-ball laden game that may have been the galvanizing force in the season. From therein, this fan base flocked to the Dome, their televisions, opponent&#8217;s stadiums, riding the wave of baseball highs that were new to so many. Every moment defied expectations, because we were cheering for an underdog. Underdogs don&#8217;t disappoint; they sweep you up and carry you along for the ride, and every moment of it seems magical because at one point those moments did not seem possible.</p>
<p>The expectations of this team are quite different this season. After watching the Jays lead the world in runs scored last season, there is an expectation that they will simply exert their will on other teams, and when they fail to do so, it elicits concern. And, truthfully, that concern is not unwarranted when the entire lineup appears to go cold all at the same time, forcing starting pitchers to work with the thinnest margin of error. However, when that concern spills over to fretting about Josh Thole hitting in the ninth spot every five days or so, perhaps one needs to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. There is reason to be concerned about Marco Estrada&#8217;s last three starts, especially given how he was considered to be the Jays&#8217; best pitcher at one point this season, but to extrapolate and use it as &#8220;proof&#8221; that the six-man rotation has failed is false logic when you look at the rest of the rotation.</p>
<p>Players and teams will experience ebbs and flows over the course of a season. Remember how poorly Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin began this season? Recall how infuriating it was when it seemed as though Melvin Upton Jr. would do nothing but strike out? Good players find their way out of a slump just as good teams will normalize over the course of a season.</p>
<p>This team is in the exact same position that it was in last season, it&#8217;s simply taken a different path to get there. A greater number of games have been won on pitching and defense rather than sheer offensive prowess. It&#8217;s a far less exciting manner in which to win, and when they lose, it&#8217;s easy to scrutinize every mistake, particularly since expectations have been raised. If this were 2015, the fan base would be elated at the three-way battle for first; instead, frustration exists that the Jays haven&#8217;t just run away with the East. That&#8217;s perfectly fine. Be frustrated. Show passion. But remember, too, that this <em>is</em> a first place team &#8211; and we wouldn&#8217;t trade that for the world.</p>
<p>Quick Hits:</p>
<ul>
<li>Just prior to Friday&#8217;s game against the Twins it was announced that the <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/dioner-navarro-trade-means-blue-jays/" target="_blank">Jays had reacquired fan favourite </a>Dioner Navarro from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Double-A pitcher Colton Turner. Navarro will provide a switch-hitting bat off the bench as well as depth at the catcher&#8217;s position, which is of particular importance should R.A. Dickey not be named to the playoff roster. Though it is a relatively minor move, it demonstrates once again the front office&#8217;s efforts to improve the team heading into the final stretch of the season.</li>
<li>As the August trade deadline nears, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/08/22/blue-jays-need-joey-votto-more-than-ever-griffin.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">discussion of the Jays pursuing Reds’</a> Joey Votto have become increasingly more frequent. The two teams apparently engaged in serious discussions regarding Votto last season, but to no end. Acquiring Votto would, in many ways, make sense. The Jays need a left-handed threat in the lineup and Votto is one of the toughest outs in all of baseball. He’s locked up long term which satisfies the Jays’ need at first base, particularly if Edwin Encarnacion leaves in free agency. Though he has a hefty contract –who’s owed $22 million next season and $25 million each year thereafter through to his age 40 season &#8211; the Jays very well could lose Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and R.A. Dickey after this season, and have demonstrated a willingness to spend money. Finally, such a blockbuster move would not only benefit the Jays during this playoff run, but Votto would also help keep the window of contention open along with Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin.</li>
<li>With a good September, Josh Donaldson <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2660069-a-hot-josh-donaldson-could-give-blue-jays-the-playoff-race-edge" target="_blank">could put himself right at the top of the MVP list</a> for a second straight season. Though he likely won’t hit 41 home runs and 123 RBI again (he’s at 30 and 87), his .960 OPS is higher than it was last season (.939). He’s up against Mike Trout, who once again leads the league in WARP and Jose Altuve, who leads the batting race. Mookie Betts, David Ortiz and Edwin Encarnacion may also factor into the conversation. Regardless of whether or not he can repeat as MVP, once thing is certain – the Jays are a better team when Donaldson is swinging a hot bat.</li>
<li>Ross Atkins confirmed that the Jays would <a href="https://twitter.com/RGriffinStar/status/768280590160240640" target="_blank">send a scout to Tim Tebow’s workout</a> August 30<sup>th</sup>. The former NFL quarterback is attempting to break into baseball and supposedly has an “impressive” swing. I can’t imagine anything actually coming of it, but I suppose it doesn’t hurt to take a look.</li>
<li>And, finally. What Pros Wear has put together several videos of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEQuR2bpZ1o-_O6wysLUDvg" target="_blank">MLB players discussing the gloves they use</a>. Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar and Troy Tulowitzki were all featured in the series</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/28/this-week-in-blue-jays-the-frustratingly-good-blue-jays/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Troy Tulowitzki 2.0: Still a Superstar</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/18/5647/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/18/5647/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Aug 2016 18:00:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5647</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On the cusp of the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline, the Blue Jays’ one glaring need was to improve the starting rotation. Thus, when it was announced in the wee hours of the morning on July 28th that then-General Manager Alex Anthopoulos had traded for arguably the best shortstop in the game, he not only shocked [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On the cusp of the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline, the Blue Jays’ one glaring need was to improve the starting rotation. Thus, when it was announced in the wee hours of the morning on July 28th that then-General Manager Alex Anthopoulos had traded for arguably the best shortstop in the game, he not only shocked the baseball world, but put it on notice that he was building a team that would be competitive into the future.</p>
<p>At the time of the trade, Troy Tulowitzki was batting .300/.348/.471/.818 with 12 home runs, 53 RBI and a 1.8 WARP in 87 games with the Colorado Rockies. In his first game with the Blue Jays, in front of a home crowd of 27,060 – Jays’ fever had not yet swept through Toronto – Tulo went 3-for-5 with a home run and two doubles, driving in three runs in an 8-2 victory over the Phillies. The Tulo era had begun with a bang.</p>
<p>What began with a bang had fizzled by the time October rolled around. In his 41 games with the Jays last season, Tulowitzki posted a slash line of .239/.317/.380/.697 with just 5 home runs and 17 RBI with an amassed WARP of 1.1. Though he had a productive ALCS (.304/.304/.522/.826 in 23 plate appearances) his ALDS production was abysmal (.095/.174/.238/.412, also in 23 plate appearances). Tulomania was beginning to wane.</p>
<p>His offensive woes continued into the beginning of this season. Leading up to May 28th, when he was placed on the disabled list with a strained right quad, Tulowitzki was batting just .204/.289/.383 with 8 home runs and 23 RBI. Since returning to the lineup, however, Tulowtizki has been swinging a hot bat; he is now up to .257/.325/.476/ with 21 home runs and 63 RBI, amounting to a 2.4 WARP.</p>
<p>If one were to look at Tulowitzki&#8217;s pre-injury numbers this season, one might be led to believe that his turnaround in a Jays uniform did not begin until he came off the DL. However, he had started raking a good two weeks before going on the DL. From May 14th to August 16th, Tulowitzki has hit .307/.358/.547. Exactly what has been the reason for the turnaround this season? Let’s take a look.</p>
<p>First, let’s compare his plate discipline numbers. Given that 2015 was split between two teams, we shall consider the two halves of his season separately, along with his career norms.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>O-Swing %</td>
<td>Z-Swing %</td>
<td>Swing %</td>
<td>O-Contact %</td>
<td>Z-Contact %</td>
<td>Contact %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015<sup>1</sup></td>
<td>30.1</td>
<td>63.6</td>
<td>45.6</td>
<td>67.3</td>
<td>85.7</td>
<td>79.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015<sup>2</sup></td>
<td>29.1</td>
<td>63.9</td>
<td>44.5</td>
<td>70.7</td>
<td>83.7</td>
<td>78.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>29.8</td>
<td>63.4</td>
<td>44.8</td>
<td>71.6</td>
<td>85.4</td>
<td>80.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Career</td>
<td>25.6</td>
<td>62.0</td>
<td>43.0</td>
<td>72.9</td>
<td>88.3</td>
<td>83.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><sup>1</sup>With Colorado</p>
<p><sup>2</sup>With Toronto</p>
<p>Though he is offering at more pitches both in and out of the strike zone than his career norm, he is making more contact than he did last season after he had joined the Jays, particularly on pitches in the zone. And although his contact rate is down compared to his career, which could be attributed to age, his overall contact percentage this season is closer to his previous levels than it was while he was in Colorado last season.</p>
<p>What he&#8217;s doing with that contact has changed over the course of this season. Although he&#8217;s seeing similar pitches, Tulowitzki&#8217;s whiffs per swing have dramatically decreased for all pitch types:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-pitch-types.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-5653 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-pitch-types-e1471504616527.png" alt="troy pitch types" width="450" height="222" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-whiffs-per-swing.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-5654" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-whiffs-per-swing.png" alt="troy whiffs per swing" width="450" height="222" /></a></p>
<p>This suggests that he&#8217;s seeing the ball well and isn&#8217;t being fooled at the plate. In addition, Tulowitzki&#8217;s exit velocity has increased, leading to an increase in the number of line drives he&#8217;s hit over the course of the season:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-exit-velo.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-5655" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-exit-velo.png" alt="troy exit velo" width="450" height="222" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-line-drives.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-5656" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/troy-line-drives.png" alt="troy line drives" width="450" height="222" /></a></p>
<p>Hitting line drives would indicate that he&#8217;s seeing the ball better, waiting for pitches he can drive, and then squaring them up. It could also mean an uptick in bat speed over the course of the season, which would obviously mean a mechanical change, but that is harder to prove.</p>
<p>This may not be the Troy Tulowitzki of the past, but one cannot expect him to be. Age alone will lead to marginal regression each season. But, what we saw out of Tulo during his first 80 or so games in Toronto could not be explained by natural regression alone. Adjusting to a new league and a new group of pitchers while at the same time uprooting one&#8217;s life to move to a new city (never mind a different country) are all factors that cannot possibly be measured, but Tulowitzki himself admits that it took time for him to feel comfortable in Toronto.</p>
<p>What is important is what we&#8217;re seeing from him now: a plus bat contributing daily to the offense in the midst of a playoff drive. Moreover, it is important to remember that Tulowitzki represents far superior offensive production and, by several defensive measures, superior defense than all in-house options, both past and present. The Jays are certainly paying for that production (he&#8217;s owed an average of $19.8 million per year through his age 36 season with a club option the following year), but if you&#8217;re going to spend money on a position, shortstop is an ideal position on which to spend it. He&#8217;s not likely to produce quite as his career norms into the future, nor should one expect that of him. But, assuming that his offensive woes since coming to Toronto are truly behind him, he ought to provide good value both at the plate and in the field.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/18/5647/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Recap: Orioles 6, Blue Jays 2; Offense Sputters as Jays Lose in Extras</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/31/recap-orioles-6-blue-jays-2-offense-sputters-as-jays-lose-in-extras/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/31/recap-orioles-6-blue-jays-2-offense-sputters-as-jays-lose-in-extras/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jul 2016 21:16:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5045</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One day after leapfrogging the Baltimore Orioles to grab a half-game lead in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays sent current Cy Young favourite Aaron Sanchez to the mound for a shot at the series sweep. The Orioles countered with their best starter, Chris Tillman, against whom several Blue Jays&#8217; hitters have had success. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One day after leapfrogging the Baltimore Orioles to grab a half-game lead in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays sent current Cy Young favourite Aaron Sanchez to the mound for a shot at the series sweep. The Orioles countered with their best starter, Chris Tillman, against whom several Blue Jays&#8217; hitters have had success. The Jays struck first in the bottom of the second, when Russell Martin&#8217;s double came around to score after a single by Kevin Pillar and a fielder&#8217;s choice. The Jays threatened again in the third with a leadoff double by Jose Bautista, but Tillman pitched himself out of it with strikeouts of Josh Donaldson and Michael Saunders as well as a groundout by Edwin Encarnacion. The bottom of the fourth got off to a bang when Troy Tulowitzki launched his 18th home run of the season, a monster shot off the façade of the fifth deck. Sanchez, who cruised through four innings, ran into a spot of trouble in the fifth when he gave up a two-out walk followed by a single, but got a pop up to end the inning.</p>
<p>Jays fans held their collective breaths in the sixth inning when Troy Tulowitzki took an errant pitch off his right thumb, and although he came back out on defense in the seventh inning, he subsequently had to leave the game. Sanchez, who appeared several times in the game to be bothered by the middle finger of his pitching hand, appeared mortal when a lead-off walk to Chris Davis followed by a double to Mark Trumbo both came around to score, tying the game at two runs apiece. Noted Jays&#8217; rival Darren O&#8217;Day came in to pitch the bottom of the seventh, setting up yet another showdown between him and Jose Bautista. Bautista would draw a walk, but that was all the Jays could manage off of O&#8217;Day. Neither team could muster up a run until the top of the twelfth, when Franklin Morales (who may have just played his last game as a Blue Jay (led off the inning with a walk to Pedro Alvarez, who promptly took second base on a balk and then scored on a double by Jonathan Schoop. Jesse Chavez would then come into the game with two runners on base and promptly surrendered the death blow, a three-run shot to give the Orioles a 6-2 lead that would end up being the final score.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>No surprise that the top play of the game by WPA (.281) was Jonathan Schoop&#8217;s single to left field to score Pedro Alvarez, giving the Orioles the go-ahead and eventual winning run of the game.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays had an opportunity to score in the bottom of the eleventh when, with one out, Russell Martin drew a walk. That walk was erased when Kevin Pillar hit into an inning-ending double play, providing the bottom play of the game by WPA (-.134).</p>
<h3>Troy Tulowitzki Day-to-Day</h3>
<p>Shortly after the game concluded, the team announced that Troy Tulowitzki has a small chip fracture in his right thumb. As of now, the team is hoping that he can avoid a stint on the disabled list.</p>
<h3>Aaron Sanchez Surpasses Career Innings Total</h3>
<p>Early in the game, Aaron Sanchez surpassed his previous career high of 133.1 innings pitched, thus ensuring that each subsequent innings pitched would represent a new career high. It also brought to the forefront once again the debate as to whether or not he should be moved to the bullpen. Sanchez, who was seeking his tenth straight winning decision, threw seven innings of two-run ball, lowering his AL league-leading ERA to 2.71. His velocity was a notch or two below his average of 94.7 mph, which could have been been related to whatever difficulty his finger may have been causing him.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays, who now sit a half-game behind the Orioles for first place, depart for a seven-game road trip beginning with a visit to Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros. First pitch tomorrow is at 8:10 ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA Today Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/31/recap-orioles-6-blue-jays-2-offense-sputters-as-jays-lose-in-extras/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
