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	<title>Toronto &#187; Trades</title>
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		<title>TRADE: Blue Jays Trade RP Seunghwan Oh to Rockies for Prospects</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/25/trade-blue-jays-trade-seunghwan-oh-to-rockies-for-1b-prospects-chad-spanberger-and-sean-bouchard/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/25/trade-blue-jays-trade-seunghwan-oh-to-rockies-for-1b-prospects-chad-spanberger-and-sean-bouchard/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Jul 2018 01:52:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Spanberger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Bouchard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seunghwan Oh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16401</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays made a trade during the ninth inning of Tuesday&#8217;s game against the Twins, sending reliever Seunghwan Oh to the Rockies for first base prospect Chad Spanberger, Outfielder Forrest Wall, and a Player to be Named Later. Not included, despite earlier reports is first base prospect Sean Bouchard. Oh deal to rox is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays made a trade during the ninth inning of Tuesday&#8217;s game against the Twins, sending reliever Seunghwan Oh to the Rockies for first base prospect Chad Spanberger, Outfielder Forrest Wall, and a Player to be Named Later. Not included, despite <a href="https://www.denverpost.com/2018/07/25/rockies-seunghwan-oh-trade/" target="_blank">earlier reports</a> is first base prospect Sean Bouchard.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Oh deal to rox is Forrest wall , spanberger and ptbnl</p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1022481238093914112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 26, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Oh, a 36-year-old right-hander, pitched to a 2.68 ERA in 47.0 innings with the Blue Jays, posting a 10.53 K/9 and just a 1.91 BB/9 in a resurgent campaign. The veteran notched a 4.2 WAR in his rookie campaign before falling back to essentially replacement level last season thanks to a large spike in his home run rate that his since come back to earth. Oh&#8217;s rebound has also coincided with a return to form for his slider, which lost a significant amount of horizontal movement from 2016 to 2017 before bouncing back this year. His current fly ball rate of 50.4% represents a career-high and might be cause for alarm in Colorado, however. The Blue Jays signed Oh this offseason after a reported deal with the Rangers fell through as a result of some concern over his right elbow.</p>
<p>He has around $500,000 owed to him for the remainder of this season and a club option for next year worth $2.5 million that will vest if he pitches in 70 games this year, giving the Rockies a relatively cheap reliever to add to their cadre of expensive bullpen arms for 2019.</p>
<p>In return, the Blue Jays reportedly add and outfielder/second baseman and a first basemen to their farm system in Forrest Wall and Chad Spanberger.</p>
<p><strong>Wall</strong>, a 22-year-old who was drafted as a second baseman but has shifted to the left field after an injury limited his arm, was actually a former first round pick of the Rockies in 2014 (35th overall) and after a strong enough start to his pro career, ranked 90th on MLB Pipeline&#8217;s top 100 and 101st on BP&#8217;s top 101 entering the 2016 season, but has has stalled out a bit since then. Despite the strong hitting conditions at Lancaster in high-A, Wall failed to hit much in 2016 and was sent back to the level for 2017. After a decent .299/.361/.471 line to start there in 2017, Wall tore his shoulder on a dive and played only 22 games on the year. All healed, and after a decent start at Lancaster this year, Wall was promoted to double-A Hartford and has gotten off to a slow start, with a line of .206/.289/.359. He&#8217;ll be interesting to watch as shoulder injuries, even once healed, can sap production for a short while after. He must be added to the 40-man roster this season or be exposed to the Rule Five Draft.</p>
<p>MLB Pipeline still ranks Wall as the 13th best Rockies prospect, citing his consistent, contact-driven line drive stroke that could produce double-digit home runs in the future and his plus to double plus speed. They give him grades of 55 on the hit and 60 speed with 50 fielding, but only 45 power, 40 arm. It&#8217;ll be interesting to see how he pans out. Fangraphs was a bit more bullish, ranking Wall #7 in the Rockies system entering the season, though giving out similar tool grades (and a 45 future value).</p>
<p><strong>Spanberger</strong> is a left-handed batter who was selected in the 6th round of the 2017 draft out of Arkansas. He broke out in his junior season (2016) with the Razorbacks, finishing ninth in the nation with 20 homers while getting on base at a .389 clip. Spanberger&#8217;s legend grew with a monstrous showing in the SEC tournament where he hit five dingers and drove in 10 runs en route to MVP honors. In 2017 with the Grand Junction Rockies (Rookie ball), Spanberger slashed .294/.368/.617 with 19 home runs but has taken another step forward this season, delivering a line of .316/.364/.580, 22 home runs and 16 steals for the Asheville Tourists. He also won the home run derby at the South Atlantic League&#8217;s all-star weekend this year. 113 of his 349 at-bats as a Tourist have come against southpaws, against whom he&#8217;s hit just three of his homers while posting an OPS of .712.</p>
<p>The 22-year-old has seen his walk rate cut in half (10.0 to 5.3) and his ISO dip from .323 to .264 while his BABIP is sitting pretty at .356, but he&#8217;s also cut down on his strikeouts with a K-rate dropping from 26.4% to a more palatable 21.6%. That should quell some concerns about his propensity for the swing-and-miss at least a little bit, and despite definite pull tendencies Spanberger has also gone to the opposite field a little more (26.9%) this season. He has done most of his work in hitters&#8217; parks, however, so take his numbers with a sizable grain of salt.</p>
<p>MLB Pipeline has Spanberger ranked as the Rockies&#8217; No. 24 prospect while Baseball America ranked him as Colorado&#8217;s 17th-best prospect after the 2017 season, though their draft report indicated that power is his only &#8220;plus&#8221; tool. Spanberger has worked exclusively as a first baseman or designated hitter at the pro level but did play a little bit of right field in college after working as a catcher in high school. He&#8217;s committed 18 errors in 123 games in the field so far as a professional.</p>
<p>The Player to be Named Later may end up being someone from this year&#8217;s draft, just cash considerations, or even potentially the aforementioned Bouchard. We&#8217;ll have to wait on that. Regardless, this is a solid return for a player that was supposed to be playing with Texas all year. The Blue Jays get two useful, if flawed, prospects who could provide some value down the road. Oh was never going to be part of a winner in Toronto, so taking advantage of his cheap option to get a better return is a win for the club.</p>
<p>There will likely be a lot more Blue Jays news coming down the pipe in the coming ays as Toronto figures to be a prominent player on the trade market, with J.A. Happ, Curtis Granderson, John Axford and Tyler Clippard among the names appearing in the rumor mill of late.</p>
<p><em>This space initially had a report on Bouchard, but that has since been removed. </em></p>
<p>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton &#8211; USA TODAY SPORTS</p>
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		<title>Four Blue Jays Mega Moves That Almost Happened</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/19/what-if-four-blue-jays-mega-moves-that-almost-happened/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/19/what-if-four-blue-jays-mega-moves-that-almost-happened/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jan 2017 15:33:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8634</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Monday was one of the busiest days of the offseason. News of a likely reunion between Jose Bautista and the Jays started to filter out; as a reaction to the Bautista news, Michael Saunders was rumored to be signing with the Phillies. Monday also brought about one of the sexier rumors of the offseason via [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Monday was one of the busiest days of the offseason. News of a likely reunion between Jose Bautista and the Jays started to filter out; as a reaction to the Bautista news, Michael Saunders was rumored to be signing with the Phillies. Monday also brought about one of the sexier rumors of the offseason <a href="rumbunter.com/2017/01/16/pittsburgh-pirates-toronto-blue-jays-discussed-mega-deal/" target="_blank">via Rum Bunter</a> – the Jays and Pirates talked mega deal. The rumor suggested Toronto discussed a multiplayer trade with the Pirates that sought to bring Andrew McCutchen and reliever Tony Watson to Toronto in exchange for five players, including three of the Blue Jays’ top ten prospects.</p>
<p>While the Jays and Pirates were not able to settle on a deal, the trade reminds us that our favorite teams are often only a phone call or single-A prospect away from looking very different than they are currently constructed &#8211; both this year and down the line (the Jays would have likely had to say goodbye to teen dream, Vlad Jr. to get Cutch and Watson).</p>
<p>With Jose Bautista back in Toronto and the hot stove beginning to cool down (unless you’re ready to get excited about backup catchers), now is a good time to look at other transactions that almost happened, and would have drastically altered Blue Jays’ history had they been completed.</p>
<h3>Jose Cruz Jr. to the Mets for David Wright</h3>
<p>In the summer of 2002, the Blue Jays almost made a trade that would have gone down as one of the best in team history. The most quotable general manager in team history, <a href="http://nypost.com/2014/07/31/5-mind-blowing-trades-that-almost-happened/">J.P. Ricciardi, declined to accept the New York Mets’ offer of David Wright for Jose Cruz Jr.</a> Wright was a prospect playing in A-ball at the time and Jose Cruz Jr. was having a good, but not spectacular year for the Blue Jays (.245/.317/.438 and a WARP of 2.7).</p>
<p>What makes the non-trade for Wright perplexing from a Blue Jays point of view is that Cruz Jr. left as a free agent the following winter when Toronto declined to offer him arbitration. The team was also 18.5 games out of first place by mid July, which makes Ricciardi’s insistence on holding onto Cruz Jr. through the final months of the season even more confusing.</p>
<p>Wright, meanwhile, turned into one of the better players in baseball for the next decade – posting seven seasons with a WARP over 5.5 between 2005 and 2013 for the Mets. But to quote J.P. Ricciardi at the time:</p>
<p>“I’m not trading a major league player for some guy in the Sally League.”</p>
<h3>Toronto Misses Out in Bidding for Yu Darvish</h3>
<p>In the winter of 2011, the Blue Jays, then run by Alex Anthopoulos, began their quest to take advantage of the competitive window afforded to them by way of Jose Bautista’s prime and the Yankees and Red Sox relinquishing their stranglehold on the division.</p>
<p>2011 was also the year that Yu Darvish decided to make the transition from Japanese baseball to the Major Leagues. <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/report-blue-jays-lead-in-bid-for-darvish/article4181251/">Amidst much speculation that the Blue Jays would emerge the high bidder for the Japanese-Iranian ace</a>, they were outbid by the Texas Rangers and unable to secure the top of the rotation arm they desired.</p>
<p>Since signing with the Rangers, Darvish has pitched like an ace, posting elite strikeout numbers and a career ERA of 3.29 in four seasons (he missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery). It’s easy to dream on a Blue Jays&#8217; rotation that featured Darvish at the top  – the team may not have surrendered any number of the young players traded in their quest for front of the rotation pitching in the years that followed. It’s hard not to ponder an alternate reality where Darvish, Noah Syndergaard, and Aaron Sanchez all pitch in the same rotation for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>But before Blue Jays fans feel too badly about missing out on the shuuto-baller, just remember that Darvish’s implosion in last year’s playoffs is partially responsible for the Blue Jays’ 3-game sweep of the Rangers in the 2016 ALDS.</p>
<h3>Jose Bautista to the Philadelphia Phillies for Domonic Brown</h3>
<p>Had this trade ever been consummated, it would have usurped the R.A. Dickey/Noah Syndergaard trade as the most complained about in recent Blue Jays’ history.</p>
<p>Even at the time the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/11/13/jose_bautista_trade_rumours_heat_up_are_blue_jays_looking_at_phillies_domonic_brown.html">short-lived rumor</a> emerged (the 2013 Winter Meetings), this was clearly a very bad trade for the Blue Jays. Jose Bautista was one of the best offensive players in baseball on a team-friendly contract. Domonic Brown was a former top prospect coming off an apparent breakout season. Nary a soul in Blue Jays world &#8211; and that includes Blue Jays’ Twitter, and you know how people on Twitter feel about agreement &#8211; thought this trade would have been a good idea.</p>
<p>Admittedly, the rumor came from a less than Rosenthal-esque source (Philadelphia radio personality, Howard Eskin), but it had enough legs to make a few waves throughout the baseball world. Bautista would go on to produce two more stellar seasons in Toronto before an injury-plagued 2016 limited his production. Meanwhile, Brown, who was coming off his (somewhat fluky) best season to date, struggled to stay in the Majors in 2014-15.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays ultimately got their man when they signed Brown to a minor league deal after the 2015 season. He played 126 games at Triple-A Buffalo in 2016 where he slashed .239/303./.336. Definitely not the kind of production you want to give up Jose Bautista for.</p>
<h3>Alex Rios to the San Francisco Giants for Tim Lincecum</h3>
<p>During the 2007 Winter Meetings, Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi reportedly presented the San Francisco Giants with a one-for-one challenge trade: offering <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/another-jays-trade-that-never-happened/article1373337/">Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum.</a> Rios was coming off of a strong 2007 that saw the 26-year-old outfielder slash .297/.354/.498 while putting up 5.0 WARP. Lincecum, meanwhile, was coming off of his rookie season in which he threw 146.1 innings with an ERA of 4.00 and a whole mess of strikeouts.</p>
<p>While the Giants were in need of offensive production to replace Barry Bonds, who was forced into early retirement, the trade was less intuitive for the Blue Jays, who already had a rotation led by Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett.</p>
<p>Neither Rios or Lincecum were able to maintain long peaks of elite production in the Major Leagues. Lincecum’s dominant seasons (2008-2011) top Rios’ – the latter of whom was more productive than it felt given his injuries, inconsistencies, and his less appreciated contributions on the bases and in the outfield. Interestingly enough, the players career WARPs are fairly similar, too, with Lincecum edging Rios 32.9 to 26.</p>
<p>The Rios/Lincecum trade would also have meant avoiding the potentially burdensome 7-year, $69.8 million dollar contract that the Blue Jays signed Alex Rios to the following season. Luckily for Toronto, the Chicago White Sox claimed him off waivers in 2009.</p>
<p>What would a trade of Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum have done to alter the Blue Jays in the years to come? Would the Blue Jays become one of the great pitching dynasties of the late 2000s? Would Roy Halladay  re-sign with the team? How much money would Alex Rios end up making in his career? For better or worse, we will have to play Scoresheet baseball to find out.</p>
<p>Rumors like the Jays/Pirates mega deal are an important reminder that building a major league roster involves constant attempts to negotiate trades and signings that never come to fruition. While it may drive you crazy to think the Jays could have had young David Wright for half a season of Jose Cruz Jr., remember they could have just as easily traded away Jose Bautista for Triple-A depth.  Go easy on your favorite team’s executives. Even J.P Ricciardi.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>A Kingdom for a Lefty: 12 LH Reliever Trade Targets</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/09/a-kingdom-for-a-lefty-12-potential-lh-reliever-trade-targets/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2016 15:40:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lefty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Relief Pitching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8298</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What&#8217;s the opposite of a &#8220;Moneyball&#8221; market inefficiency? Whatever you call it, that&#8217;s what major league baseball has become when it comes to the market for relief pitchers, particularly left-handed relievers. After the regrettable departure of long-time setup man Brett Cecil, the Blue Jays are faced with a critical need to replace him in their [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What&#8217;s the opposite of a &#8220;Moneyball&#8221; market inefficiency? Whatever you call it, that&#8217;s what major league baseball has become when it comes to the market for relief pitchers, particularly left-handed relievers. After the regrettable departure of long-time setup man Brett Cecil, the Blue Jays are faced with a critical need to replace him in their 2017 bullpen.</p>
<p>It has been rightly observed that the market is thin in quality free agent options, combined with the rather insane level of spending teams are engaged in for relief pitching, it now makes the idea of simply filling the spot by opening the checkbook unpalatable.</p>
<p>However, if Toronto decides to turn to potential trade targets, we can expect them to have to somewhat overpay in that market as well unless the other team&#8217;s GM fails to do his job well. Here, you might seek out a starter who has the potential to turn into a much better reliever (Kyle Matte <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/10/patrick-corbin-potential-andrew-miller-clone-and-blue-jays-target/">detailed</a> one intriguing possibility a month ago) but in many cases reaching an agreement on valuation will be tricky.</p>
<p>The focus here is on a pitcher that is capable of being better than in house options, simply because it&#8217;s not only a crucial piece but one that&#8217;s much more difficult to obtain. Right now, the only lefty on the roster is Aaron Loup. Beyond that, Ryan Tepera and Danny Barnes are young, talented righties, but the team believes in their ability to get lefties out. There&#8217;s also LHP Matt Dermody and Chad Girodo who&#8217;ve both at least touched a major league mound. None of those guys has a track record of getting the job done, however.</p>
<p>So let&#8217;s take a look at (at least theoretically) available arms.  I used Baseball Reference and surveyed every LHRP that did not play for a playoff contender, threw at least 20 innings last year, and did not completely stink. I then took into consideration their age, potential salary, and years of control. Obviously, a pre-arbitration guy with four or five years of control who&#8217;s good will be difficult to acquire even from a rebuilding team. Because of this, the list is divided into two groups: Seven guys who are at least into their arbitration year, and five who are not. So away we go.</p>
<p>1. <strong>Brad Hand</strong> &#8211; San Diego &#8211; 27 &#8211; 1st year arbitration eligible &#8211; controlled through 2019</p>
<p>Frankly folks, this is your guy. He ticks off all the boxes. He&#8217;s young and controllable, he&#8217;s coming off his first year as a full time reliever and he was a workhorse, making 82 appearances and totaling over 89 IP. He did play in a notorious pitcher&#8217;s park, but his BA and OPS against were both lower in road games, as was his ERA. His WHIP was lower, his K/9 was 12.2 which is even higher than his 11.2 overall rate. Left handed hitters hit a mere .125 with a .421 OPS against him in 2016.  No one else on the list compares to him. All for a projected arbitration salary of $1.4 million. Which means you&#8217;ll have to pay a premium to get him. I wouldn&#8217;t give up Guerrero or Alford but you can&#8217;t go much further down the list. Conner Greene? You probably have to start with him and be willing to add in a couple of lesser guys, but not too much lesser. I&#8217;d do it.</p>
<p>2. <strong>Sean Doolittle</strong> &#8211; Oakland &#8211; 30 &#8211; signed through 2020</p>
<p>This is in some ways the other end of the spectrum in terms of getting premium talent in this trade market. Long control at a fixed price and a price that&#8217;s quite reasonable in the current economic market. He makes $2.63 million in 2017, $4.38 in 2018, and then $6.5 million options for both 2018 and 2019 (each with a half-million buyout).</p>
<p>For that price you get a tidy 1.7 BB/9, an impressive 10.5 K/9, but someone who missed significant portions of the last two seasons with injury. In both cases, to his throwing shoulder. When he pitched, he was as good as ever but will be pitch? On the one hand you might want to stay away, on the other you may find the price more acceptable for a guy with a healthy history. Question is, how many dollar bills will you gamble on that risk?</p>
<p>3. <strong>Xavier Cedeno</strong> &#8211; Tampa Bay &#8211; 30 &#8211; Arb-1 &#8211; controlled through 2019</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not entirely certain the Rays would be willing to deal within the division, or whether you&#8217;d have to pay a premium for the privilege even for a reliever, but the last two seasons of work make him an attractive target. He&#8217;s got a combined ERA of 2.99 to go with 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over that span. He&#8217;s held opposing left-handers to a BA under .200 and an OPS under .500. On MLBTR his projected salary is a modest $1.2 million.</p>
<p>4.<strong> Tony Watson</strong> &#8211; Pittsburgh &#8211; 32 &#8211; arb-3 &#8211; controlled through 2017</p>
<p>Watson took a half-step back last year due to an aberrational spike in homers allowed but has been good over his career and controlled left handed hitters well.  Coming with only one year of control is a negative ought to depress the cost somewhat, though the price could still be high in the current market. The potential downside here is that his projected salary is $5.9 million. That might mean the Pirates would take less in prospects to shed the dollars, but such a salary might cramp other things you  plan to do.</p>
<p>5.<strong> Jake McGee</strong> &#8211; Colorado &#8211; 30 &#8211; signed for 2017 ($5.9 mil) &#8211; controlled through 2017</p>
<p>I frankly don&#8217;t see any reason why the Rockies would be interested in dealing him, particularly since they just spent big to upgrade the team, but you might as well mention someone this good. He was flat out dominant in three of his last four years in Tampa Bay and would be projected as a monster asset again back in the AL. The price Colorado demanded might be too high.</p>
<p>6.<strong> Ian Krol</strong> &#8211; Atlanta &#8211; 26 &#8211; Arb-1 &#8211; controlled through 2020</p>
<p>Krol is the youngest player on this portion of the list and has the shortest track-record of success, having stepped up his game considerably in 2016. He hasn&#8217;t dominated lefties in his career and last year actually had reverse splits. Of course, that probably make him affordable. He&#8217;s projected to make $1.1  million.</p>
<p>7. <strong>Dan Jennings</strong> &#8211; Chicago White Sox &#8211; 30 &#8211; Arb-1 &#8211; controlled through 2019</p>
<p>Ranked here because the White Sox will talk on anyone. He&#8217;s been dependable and consistent for five seasons now, but he&#8217;s not dominant, and while he had good left-on-left results last year, on his career he&#8217;s not better versus lefties than righties. Projected salary: $1.2 million.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The following set of players are all pre-arbitration guys who may not even be available without a huge overpay, but are certainly deserving of an inquiring phone call.</p>
<p>8. <strong>Chris Rusin</strong> &#8211; Colorado &#8211; 30 &#8211; control through 2020</p>
<p>Failed starter, pushed into relief role and improved markedly, also better on the road as you might expect.  A look at how he fared vs LH hitters in relief is revealing. Facing 60 such batters, they slashed .<span id=":lt.co" class="tL8wMe EMoHub" dir="ltr">164/.233/.291</span> against him and he struck them out at a 28.3% rate. That&#8217;ll play.</p>
<p>9.<strong> Taylor Rogers</strong> &#8211; Minnesota &#8211; 26 &#8211; less than one year service<br />
10.<strong> Buddy Boshers</strong> &#8211; Minnesota &#8211; 29 &#8211; less than one year service</p>
<p>Between these two, Rogers is the guy you want, he&#8217;s younger and has a significant platoon advantage. He&#8217;s been a starter most of the time in the minors. Boshers has been released and signed as a free agent twice. He&#8217;s just one of those guys you sign for AAA and hope things click. Still, given the Twins&#8217; state of affairs, you might be able to pick off a guy like Rogers for a price you can swallow.</p>
<p>11.<strong> Ryan Buchter</strong> &#8211; San Diego &#8211; 30 &#8211; one year service</p>
<p>When you&#8217;ve done everything you can to get Hand and failed, it wouldn&#8217;t hurt to ask about this guy He toiled 11 years in the minors with more strikeouts than IP but more walks that you&#8217;d really like. He finally got his shot in 2016 and was flat out dominant. Both at home and on the road and against both RH and LH hitters. If it was sustainable, this would make him ideal for a late-inning role. He still walked a few too many, but batters couldn&#8217;t hit him. All they managed was a line of .160/.271/.288 off him last year. On the other hand, he&#8217;s been a free agent three times and one has to ask if he can sustain this level of success. For a small enough return, it couldn&#8217;t hurt to give it a try.</p>
<p>12.<strong> Jose Alvarez</strong> &#8211; LA Angels &#8211; 28 &#8211; control through 2020</p>
<p>Alvarez has logged two solid, and very similar, seasons in the Angels bullpen. The one difference between &#8217;15 and &#8217;16 is that his BABiP against LH hitters jumped from .286 to .330, resulting in a spike in batting average, but no additional scoring. He&#8217;s probably not Cecil all over again, but he&#8217;d be an asset if you can persuade LA to part with him.</p>
<p>Finally, just for completeness of information, some LH starters that you might want to go all Joe Blanton on include John Danks, CJ Wilson, Jorge De La Rosa, and Tommy Milone. Wilson would be a great value play if you could bring him in on a minor league deal and use spring to decide between the MLB bullpen or the Bison&#8217;s rotation. If you can persuade him to accept that. You might get significant upside either way there. Now, if you&#8217;ll excuse me, I&#8217;m going to get back to lusting after Mr. Brad Hand.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Creative Ways to Navigate the Weak Free Agent Market</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/creative-ways-to-navigate-the-weak-free-agent-market/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/creative-ways-to-navigate-the-weak-free-agent-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2016 14:05:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[carlos gomez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sign]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7852</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s no secret that the 2017 free agent market isn&#8217;t quite as strong as we&#8217;ve seen in recent years. MLB Trade Rumours predicts that just one free agent, Yoenis Cespedes, will receive a contract for more than $100 million when last season, MLBTR predicted that nine free agents would receive more than $100 million, with seven of them [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s no secret that the 2017 free agent market isn&#8217;t quite as strong as we&#8217;ve seen in recent years. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html" target="_blank">MLB Trade Rumours predicts</a> that just one free agent, Yoenis Cespedes, will receive a contract for more than $100 million when last season, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html" target="_blank">MLBTR predicted</a> that nine free agents would receive more than $100 million, with <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker/contract_amount_operator-2__contract_amount-100000000" target="_blank">seven of them surpassing that mark</a>. What&#8217;s the result of poor prospects for free agency? It&#8217;s likely that you&#8217;re going to get a lot of players who&#8217;ll be paid a good amount more than they&#8217;re worth. Now, if you&#8217;re the Toronto Blue Jays, and you just surpassed 3,000,000 in attendance for the first time since 1993, you can probably afford to overpay for a few key free agents. But, should you? That&#8217;s a more precarious question.</p>
<p>At present, the Jays are in an interesting position. From a psychological standpoint, the core of this Blue Jays team will be gone if Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion go to other teams. However, from a performance standpoint, the core will still be here. Between Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, and more, the Blue Jays have enough to do well, but perhaps not enough for a playoff spot.</p>
<p>Also, because many of the Blue Jays&#8217; biggest stars (most notably Josh Donaldson) aren&#8217;t under club control for much longer, the tendency would be to make a statement to win now. But, the Blue Jays squad isn&#8217;t entirely of the old guard; there&#8217;s a new wave of talent on the horizon with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Devon Travis, and a robust prospect base in the lower minors. Given that, and the fact that the top end of free agency will cost more in the long term than its worth, the Blue Jays will need to get creative.</p>
<p>Here are four ways that they can do that:</p>
<h4>Get Trading</h4>
<p>At the moment, we&#8217;re still waiting for the trade market to fully develop for the offseason, but there should be a few key pieces available. Kyle Matte wrote about <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/02/andrew-mccutchen-a-wise-investment/" target="_blank">one such candidate</a> last week: Andrew McCutchen. While McCutchen is one candidate, he&#8217;s representative of the type of player that might be up for trade as the offseason progresses. The Pirates are one of a handful of teams that disappointed, and fell at or below .500 in 2016. Others include the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Marlins, Royals, and White Sox. Each have a few valuable commodities, but will have to decide whether they can do enough to improve with what&#8217;s available internally, or on the market.</p>
<p>However, the Blue Jays may run in to a trading issue with so few of their top prospects having reached the upper minors. In fact, just three of <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#FMtfQDczrrFdAXue.97" target="_blank">Baseball America&#8217;s Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects</a> played at all in the upper minors last season. And those who did (Connor Greene, Rowdy Tellez, and Richard Urena), don&#8217;t project out as supertars. That&#8217;ll make trying to get a top trade piece very tough if the Blue Jays don&#8217;t want to part with someone currently expected to make the 2017 major league roster. Although that doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s impossible; the new Blue Jays&#8217; front office&#8217;s trade for Liriano at the deadline <em>was</em> pretty crafty.</p>
<h4>Look into a Platoon</h4>
<p>It&#8217;ll be incredibly hard for any one player not-named Edwin Encarnacion to fill in for the production that the Blue Jays&#8217; got from the DH/1B spot last season. Joshua Howsam tried his hand at <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/08/under-the-radar-free-agent-options/" target="_blank">finding a few such players</a> yesterday, but even the best of the bunch would be a downgrade on their own. However, the solution for a number of present holes could be a strict platoon, something that the Jays utilized very little of in 2016.</p>
<p>In his piece, Joshua went over a couple of the platoon options at DH, in Brandon Moss and Pedro Alvarez. However, the same thinking could be applied when considering another outfielder. Desmond Jennings, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey are a few options who&#8217;ve historically hit left handed pitchers at an above average clip. Matt Joyce, Daniel Nava, and Colby Rasmus (!) are a few options who&#8217;ve historically hit right handed pitchers at an above average clip. Granted, any platoon comes with some risk as you&#8217;re operating in smaller samples, but there is abundant choice from which to pick.</p>
<h4>Bet on Defence</h4>
<p>In 2016, the Blue Jays did anything but bet on defence when it came to the outfield. Sure, there was (and still is) defensive superstar Kevin Pillar. But he was forced to cover up ground lost by the 36-year-old right fielder with only an arm to offer and the 29-year-old left fielder recovering from a knee injury. With the free-agent market&#8217;s top hitters set to garner big dollars, looking to a player with a greater defensive balance  would be an upside play.</p>
<p>This method, while potentially effective, is also admittedly risky. It&#8217;s hard enough to perdict how your own player will perform defensively in any given season, let alone gauging the defense of a free agent. However, if the Blue Jays <em>were</em> to go this route an option like Carlos Gomez exists.</p>
<p>In addition to having an uptick in offensive performance once he joined the Rangers late in the season, Carlos Gomez has historically been a great defender. The advanced defensive metrics don&#8217;t show it last season, but I&#8217;m willing to bet that an ex-<a href="http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-2013-winners.asp" target="_blank">Fielding Bible Award</a> winner in centre field could once again be elite if placed in an outfield corner.</p>
<h4>Go Big, But Short-Term</h4>
<p>The last option bucks the trend of avoiding the big players on the free agent market. In this scenario, one can attempt to envision that the Blue Jays sign the likes of Neil Walker, Wilson Ramos, or Jose Bautista, and that it be a valuable contract. Each of those three players has 2016 baggage; injuries in the cases of Walker and Ramos and poor performance in the case of Bautista. As such, they may be willing to take a deal akin to that of the one that Yoenis Cespedes signed with the New York Mets last offseason.</p>
<p>That deal would have a big short term payout, but the contract would only be for one season, or would include an opt-out clause after one season. Admittedly, this makes more sense for Walker and Ramos than it does for Bautista, who&#8217;s substantially older than the other pair. But any such deal of the Cespedes nature would allow the Blue Jays to flex their financial muscle in the short term, without taking on too much money that could be better spent later.</p>
<p>Of course, given the Jays&#8217; strong showing both on the diamond and in the TV ratings in 2016, none of these options should be necessary. However, they do offer an alternative to a free agent market that otherwise has little value to be found at the top. If the team were solely looking for a piece to put them over the top, then perhaps it would make sense to take the hit and grab a Cespedes, Fowler, or Encarnacion. But, with a few holes on the roster, and a rotation that could see some regression (merely on the basis of health), the big play may not make sense.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Jays Don&#8217;t Need to Add to Win a World Series</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/25/the-jays-dont-need-to-add-to-win-a-world-series/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/25/the-jays-dont-need-to-add-to-win-a-world-series/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Jul 2016 15:19:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tulo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4805</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Think back to 2014. This team had Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and an adequate supporting staff. However, they couldn&#8217;t quite make the playoffs. In fact, at five games back, they weren&#8217;t particularly close. What was the issue? Again, team had a lot of adequate talent. It also had two very impressive players, but it just didn&#8217;t [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Think back to 2014. This team had Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and an adequate supporting staff. However, they couldn&#8217;t quite make the playoffs. In fact, at five games back, they weren&#8217;t particularly close. What was the issue? Again, team had a lot of adequate talent. It also had two very impressive players, but it just didn&#8217;t have enough upper echelon talent to succeed.</p>
<p>Now think back to 2015. The Jays had kept the core of their team together, losing only Melky Cabrera and Adam Lind. They also went and added that upper echelon talent, in trading for Josh Donaldson. You might have heard of him; <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15229047/josh-donaldson-not-resting-mvp-laurels" target="_blank">he&#8217;s kind of good</a>. Then, as you&#8217;ll remember, at the trade deadline, the Blue Jays doubled down. They already had a collection of great players, and added to it by swapping the declining Jose Reyes for one of baseball&#8217;s best shortstops, and swapping a few younger starters for a true ace in David Price. In under 48 hours, they went from a very good team, to the best team in baseball.</p>
<p>In that case, almost across the board, the acquisitions were justified. Troy Tulowitzki was a long term acquisition, who just happened to come at the trade deadline. Ben Revere was picked up for two failed prospects. David Price was a needed starting pitcher, for a staff that was hardly five deep.</p>
<p>While it was warranted last season, adding at the trade deadline isn&#8217;t always necessary. If a team is good enough to make the playoffs, then they don&#8217;t <em>need</em> to add anything in order to win the World Series. Anybody can win in a seven game series; the 2014 Kansas City Royals epitomize that notion.</p>
<p>At present, the Blue Jays find themselves three games back of the top of the AL East, and in a good position to capture one of the two AL wild card spots. PECOTA gives the team a <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">67% chance of at least making it to the wildcard game</a>. As a result, the 2016 Blue Jays don&#8217;t <em>need </em>to add anything to win a World Series.</p>
<p>In the mainstream, that is not a position that is taken to very kindly.</p>
<p><em><strong>&#8220;They can&#8217;t waste this opportunity,&#8221; </strong></em>they&#8217;ll say.</p>
<p>In some ways, anonymous Blue Jays talking head, you&#8217;re right. Following 2016, the Blue Jays will likely lose at least one of Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion. However, there is an assumption implicit to the idea that the Blue Jays&#8217;s can&#8217;t waste 2016: that they&#8217;re already wasting it. Back in mid-May, when the team was under .500 and seven games out of the top of the AL East, one could make that argument. Now, as the Jays hold a wildcard spot, and are successfully chasing an AL East title, one can&#8217;t.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll give you this: it never hurts to add more talent to a team, so long as that talent is acquired at a reasonable price. But, acquisitions at the trade deadline are most often made in a competitive market, and don&#8217;t come at a reasonable price. Either way, here&#8217;s why an addition isn&#8217;t required.</p>
<h3>The Outfield</h3>
<p>It&#8217;s not everyday that you can lose a player worth 4.5 WARP last season, and improve, but that&#8217;s exactly what happened this season. On June 16th, when the Jays lost Jose Bautista to injury, the team&#8217;s outfield began to look bleak. After all, he&#8217;d have to be replaced by &#8216;journeyman&#8217; Ezequiel Carrera. Not only has Ezequiel been a sufficient replacement, but he&#8217;s made significant improvements to his approach. Some <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/ezequiel-carrera-deserves-to-be-a-full-time-outfielder/" target="_blank">might say he deserves to be a starting outfielder</a>, but even the most skeptical acknowledge that&#8217;s he&#8217;s now a worthy fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>With improvements from Carrera and Michael Saunders, and a lack of regression from Kevin Pillar, the Jays have an incredible outfield core. Then, beyond them, there&#8217;s Dalton Pompey, Junior Lake, and maybe even Chris Colabello waiting in the wings. Depending on who you decide to deem worthy, the outfield is six or seven players deep. The Blue Jays always could acquire Melvin Upton Jr., but where would they put him?</p>
<h3>The Infield</h3>
<p>At the beginning of last season, Devon Travis was the hottest storyline in town. Small in stature, and quick with the bat, Travis was on a 20 homer pace prior to<a href="http://jaysjournal.com/2016/03/26/blue-jays-devon-travis-making-progress-shoulder-injury/" target="_blank"> his shoulder injury</a>. This season, his pace would put him at 21 home runs over 150 games, but he&#8217;s ostensibly a non-story. Why? Well, Josh Donaldson <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-donaldson-ahead-last-years-mvp-pace/" target="_blank">has only gotten better</a>, and Troy Tulowitzki is heating up.</p>
<p>Over June and July, as Tulo has recovered from his own injury, he has hit to a .943 OPS, while still providing immaculate defense at SS. For some context, Manny Machado, who has the highest OPS among all qualified shortstops, has an OPS of .934 on the season. Then, there&#8217;s Justin Smoak, who&#8217;s never set the world on fire with his hitting, but has always been a solid defender at first base, and<a href="justni%20smoak extension" target="_blank"> just signed a two-year extension</a>. You tell me, who in that infield are you going to replace?</p>
<h3>The Bullpen</h3>
<p>Relievers are baseball&#8217;s most volatile commodity; there&#8217;s nothing new about that. As such, the best results are often achieved with quantity, rather than quality. After all, it&#8217;s 60 innings over a full season, or 20 innings after the trade deadline. If the current structure of the bullpen is any indication, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins would appear to think along the same lines. Last season, it was a catastrophe when Aaron Loup didn&#8217;t perform. This season, he&#8217;s been demoted, because there are too many quality arms above him.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not to suggest that there haven&#8217;t been issues. Drew Storen has had plenty of issues with the long ball, and Brett Cecil isn&#8217;t far behind him. In fact, Storen&#8217;s been so bad that the Jays decided <a href="http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2016/7/24/12265496/blue-jays-dfa-drew-storen-call-up-ryan-tepera" target="_blank">designating him for assignment</a> was a better solution than working out his issues in the majors. Even without him, the Jays have four relievers who&#8217;ve been better than league average (Osuna, Biagini, Grilli, and Schultz), and three who should be better than league average (Cecil, Chavez, and Morales). Over 20 innings down the stretch, the probability that anyone the Jays acquire is significantly better than the seven listed relievers is small. The Jays can add to the bullpen, but they don&#8217;t <em>need</em> to.</p>
<h3>The Rotation</h3>
<p>In March, it looked like the Jays <em>would</em> need to add to the rotation. In April, after a month of successful starts, skepticism about Sanchez, Estrada, and Happ led to the opinion that the Jays <em>might</em> need to add to the rotation. Now, as we head in to August, the sample sizes are more significant, and it&#8217;s looking like they <em>may not</em> need any additions at all. By ERA, this Blue Jays starting staff has posted the fourth best mark in team history. The only three seasons in which the Jays&#8217; rotation has been better came in 1985, 1989, and 1991, when the offensive environment was substantially more subdued.</p>
<p>On top of that, for what seems like the first time ever, this rotation actually has some depth to it. There&#8217;s the five current starters, and then Drew Hutchison, Jesse Chavez, and Gavin Floyd. Any of the three could step in as a respectable fifth starter; Chavez would just need to be stretched out.</p>
<p>Another starter <em>could</em> be added to the staff, but unless they&#8217;re a top end talent, there&#8217;s little point in pushing any of the Jays five current starters to the bullpen. That includes Aaron Sanchez, who can, and should, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/21/how-to-maximize-aaron-sanchez/" target="_blank">be able to pitch the full season when deployed correctly</a>. And then you have the issue of acquirability; it&#8217;s not quite easy to get a top end talent. For example, half a season of David Price cost two MLB ready starting pitchers. With little farm system left, and no clear <em>need</em> in the rotation, that&#8217;s not something that can be easily justified.</p>
<h3>The Team</h3>
<p>As is the case with any stance, there&#8217;s always exceptions to the rule. For example, if you&#8217;re given the chance to acquire a premium player for a longer term, as they did with Troy Tulowitzki, it&#8217;s a different calculation. This season, it looks like Chris Sale could be some team&#8217;s Tulo.</p>
<p>The majority of trades will be made with short term additions in mind; that&#8217;s an arena in which the Jays need not participate. As mentioned above, they have a<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank"> two in three chance of making the playoffs</a>. Acquiring another player looks nice, but wouldn&#8217;t affect that calculation very much. If there&#8217;s a clear need that can be filled, then it works. However, with the Jays now having adequate depth and no clear need, most all acquisitions would add players that&#8217;d be different, not better. This is an incredibly good Blue Jays team, and that will shine through, acquisitions or not.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>If He&#8217;s Not Going to Start, the Jays Should Trade Aaron Sanchez</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/28/if-hes-not-going-to-start-the-jays-should-look-to-trade-aaron-sanchez/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Mar 2016 11:02:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=714</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Great Aaron Sanchez Debate of 2016 is finally coming to a close. The Blue Jays regular season opens up this coming Sunday against Tampa, so Toronto will have to very quickly decide who fits into the rotation plans. The overwhelming majority of fans want Sanchez to start, the front office seems to want him [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Great Aaron Sanchez Debate of 2016 is finally coming to a close. The Blue Jays regular season opens up this coming Sunday against Tampa, so Toronto will have to very quickly decide who fits into the rotation plans. The overwhelming majority of fans want Sanchez to start, the front office seems to want him to relieve, and John Gibbons’ opinion changes daily. However, one thing seems to have come into focus: if Sanchez starts the season in the bullpen, he’s not coming out.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gibbons admitted today what I&#39;ve always believed, if Sanchez starts year in bullpen there&#39;s a chance that&#39;s where he&#39;ll be his entire career</p>
<p>&mdash; Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/gregorMLB/status/714138573147148288">March 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Gibbons on Sanchez: &quot;I&#39;ve always been a believer, if he ends up a reliever full time this season, there&#39;s probably no going back.&quot; <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/gregorMLB/status/714138795894042624">March 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>You’ve probably already read two or three dozen pieces arguing for Sanchez to be in the rotation or the bullpen. This isn’t going to be one of those pieces. I should say that I’m more in favour of sending him to the minors if he isn’t going into the rotation &#8211; <a title="The Major Aaron Sanchez Debate Should be Minor(s)" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/15/290/" target="_blank">as outlined by our own Matt Gwin</a> last week &#8211; but Pete Walker <a href="https://twitter.com/LottOnBaseball/status/712055418114215936" target="_blank">dismissed that notion</a>. With that in mind, and if Aaron Sanchez would really be stuck in the pen forever if sent there, I believe that the Jays should do one of two things: Either start Aaron Sanchez or explore trading him.</p>
<p>That may be a shocking suggestion, as Aaron Sanchez is a fan-favourite, best friends with Marcus Stroman, and still under control for the 2017 season and beyond. But if you’ve been paying attention to what has been going on this offseason, things start to become a bit clearer.</p>
<p>I think we can all agree that, at minimum, Aaron Sanchez has been an elite relief pitcher in the major leagues. In 59.1 career innings out of the pen, the Californian righty has a 1.67 ERA (which ranks 5th among relievers with 50+ innings), and has held hitters to a line of .151/.221/.191.<strong> </strong>So let’s start by taking a look at some of the packages that teams have picked up for their ace relievers this offseason:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/relievers.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-715" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/relievers.png" alt="relievers" width="594" height="89" /></a></p>
<p>Included in that group are three monster packages, with three different types of returns. Dickerson is a power-hitting, controllable outfielder, the Phillies package contains a bunch of MLB-ready, talented players, and the Padres group is all extremely high-ceiling, if farther away prospects. While these trades all seemed like possible overpays at the time, the fact that three of them occurred in a short amount of time suggests that this in fact the new market price. Storen only required a return of Ben Revere, but he’s a pending free agent to whom Toronto is paying more than $6M, so he doesn’t really fit as a perfect comp. Heck, even Liam Hendriks was able to help the Blue Jays pull in a guy who, at the time, was supposed to be a member of the 2016 rotation in Jesse Chavez. Top relievers clearly have trade value.</p>
<p>Even then, Aaron Sanchez isn’t <em>only</em> a top reliever. The industry seems to see something a bit bigger for the 23 year old.</p>
<p>Here a a few quotes from scouts on Sanchez and his potential that were made <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/aaron-sanchez-blue-jays-starter-reliever-innings-limit-gavin-floyd-032516" target="_blank">to Ken Rosenthal</a> and <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/03/24/aaron-sanchez-should-be-a-starter-for-blue-jays" target="_blank">Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li>A scout who is tracking the Jays laughed at Rosenthal for even asking him which option he preferred, saying that Sanchez would be the Opening Day starter for half the teams in the majors.</li>
<li>“If they have five guys better than Aaron Sanchez and he does not fit their rotation, they are going to win 150 games,” said one NL scout.</li>
<li>“Sanchez is their best starter right now, not the best No. 5 candidate, but No. 1 and that includes Marcus Stroman,” said a seasoned scout.</li>
</ul>
<p>Clearly there are some out there who see Aaron Sanchez as not just a starter, but as a guy that could pitch at the front of a rotation. When we expand our offseason trade search to include starters, we see even more interesting trade packages. Jon Niese brought back Neil Walker, a solid second baseman, and Shelby Miller brought back the monster package of Encer Inciarte, Dansby Swanson, and Aaron Blair.</p>
<p>Once again, teams are willing to pay extreme premiums for controllable pitching. Sure, the Miller trade was panned across the league, but even a package half that good would be a huge return. Then when we look at the Niese deal, we see a guy that was having trouble sticking in the rotation, and is making $9M this year, with club options for 2017 and 2018 at $10M and $11M, respectively. Aaron Sanchez makes $511K this year and next, and will then be under control for three more years after that. Sanchez is arguably better in performance <em>and</em> payment, and Niese <em>still</em> brought back a player that should absolutely help the New York Mets in 2016.</p>
<p>Most importantly, every single one of these types of trades would outweigh the value the Blue Jays will get from Aaron Sanchez pitching out of the bullpen. That may seem confusing, given the previously outlined packages teams are willing to pay for relievers, but the Jays aren’t using Aaron Sanchez as a closer. They aren’t even using him as a setup man, or even the <em>second</em> set up man. Aaron Sanchez would be the fourth reliever on the Toronto depth chart, behind Roberto Osuna, Brett Cecil, and Drew Storen.</p>
<p>Brett Cecil was one of the very best relievers in all of baseball last year, and he only threw 54 innings. Roberto Osuna was the closer all year and didn’t make it to 70. It’s a basic truth that at some point, there just aren’t enough innings left. Even with some of the question marks in the Jays rotation, if Sanchez is the man responsible for the sixth or seventh innings, he doesn’t add anything close to the value he can return in trade. Jesse Chavez can absolutely handle that role. Heck, Joe Biagini, Steve Delabar, and Ryan Tepera can handle that role. It just isn’t that important.</p>
<p>Now, as many have pointed out, this is a big, go-for-it year for the Blue Jays. But take a look at those packages again, and then remind yourself what happened last July. Even if the Jays don’t get “right now” help like Dickerson, if they trade Sanchez for prospects, think of what they can do with them at the deadline. As it stands right now, the Jays don’t have the prospect depth to pull off those kind of trades. If they pull in a couple more high ceiling guys, they can make moves for real impact going forward.</p>
<p>By trading Sanchez, the team either gets tremendous assets now, or tremendous assets in the future, and all of them outweighs his contributions as a reliever. So do the right thing Blue Jays: start Aaron Sanchez. If you’re not going to do that, at least get some value for him.</p>
<p>We’d miss him, but it’s the right thing to do.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE: </strong><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/28/aaron-sanchez-named-to-the-rotation-hutch-to-aaa/" target="_blank">Sanchez has officially been named to the rotation</a>. They did the right thing after all, so they didn&#8217;t need the second best option.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The 9 Most Significant Spring Training Transactions in Blue Jays History</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/08/the-nine-most-significant-spring-training-transactions-in-blue-jays-history/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/08/the-nine-most-significant-spring-training-transactions-in-blue-jays-history/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Mar 2016 14:57:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Arnold]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The 9]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Cone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rance Mulliniks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The 9 is a monthly list series that will take a look at interesting parts of Blue Jays history, with an attempt to throw in a fun fact or two for every entry. Why nine? Well, there are nine innings and nine players on the field, so it seemed like a proper baseball number. Without [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The 9 is a monthly list series that will take a look at interesting parts of Blue Jays history, with an attempt to throw in a fun fact or two for every entry. Why nine? Well, there are nine innings and nine players on the field, so it seemed like a proper baseball number. Without further ado, here is this month&#8217;s issue.</em></p>
<p>It&#8217;s finally time for spring training. All the free agents have signed, and the team is ready to do battle with the players they have in camp. There are a few position battles yet to be sorted out, but for the most part, the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays roster is fairly close to being set. Two fights still being waged recently had a new name thrown into the hat, as Rafael Soriano was signed to a minor league contract to compete for the last spot in the bullpen, and Domonic Brown was brought in to compete for the fourth outfield spot. For the last few years though, big Blue Jays transactions in spring are uncommon.  However, historically the Jays have added some pretty nice pieces to their team after camp had opened.  So with that in mind, let&#8217;s take at a look at the 9 most significant spring training transactions in Blue Jays history:</p>
<p><strong>9. March 30, 1993 &#8211; Darrin Jackson acquired from the San Diego Padres for Derek Bell and Stony Briggs</strong></p>
<p>After 1992 World Series hero and starting left fielder Candy Maldonado signed with the Chicago Cubs, the Toronto Blue Jays were left with a hole in left field going into the 1993 season.  24 year old Derek Bell had been the team&#8217;s 4th outfielder in 1992, but the team wasn&#8217;t confident he was was ready to step into a starting role on contending team, so they traded for &#8220;proven veteran&#8221; Darrin Jackson. He wasn&#8217;t flashy, or all that good, but Jackson had played 155 games in 1992 and hit 17 home runs.  He would start on opening day after beating out fellow veteran journeyman Darnell Coles,  but would play very poorly with the team, as is evident by looking at his slash line of .216/.250/.347.  He would appear in only 46 games with the Jays before being traded for Blue Jays great Tony Fernandez.  Derek Bell, on the other hand, would immediately become a starter in San Diego and go on to carve out a decent enough career for himself, even getting some MVP votes in the 1995 season. On its surface, this trade looks quite bad for the Jays, but since they were eventually able to flip Jackson for a rejuvenated Tony Fernandez &#8211; a key figure in the 1993 world series run &#8211; it&#8217;s hard to view the move as a total loss. That&#8217;s why it makes this list.</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact:</em> Derek Bell had been the Jays top prospect going into the 1989 season, and again prior to 1992. After one so-so season as the fourth outfielder, Toronto gave up on him and sent him packing. It was a fairly shocking trade at the time, and Bell turned out to be a much better player than Darrin Jackson in the end, which really surprised no one. However, the Jays viewed Bell as a lazy player, and it was a reputation that followed him his entire career. In 2002 he famously was released with 4.5 million left on his Pirates contract after leaving the team in spring training because they told him he had to battle for his starting position after putting up terrible numbers the previous year. He never played again.</p>
<p><strong>8. March 19, 1992 &#8211; Alfredo Griffin signs as a free agent</strong></p>
<p>34 year old light-hitting utility infielders are not normally thought of as meaningful pick-ups, but in much the same vein as the previous entry on this list, any transaction made by a championship team is likely to be looked upon favorably after the fact. In Griffin&#8217;s case, he&#8217;d already been a Blue Jay fan favorite for 6 seasons in the 1970s and 1980s. Manuel Lee had been the starting shortstop for 1991, but had not played very well. Eddie Zosky (remember him?) was slated to take over the starting spot for 1992, but after performing terribly in spring training at the plate and in the field, it was decided he needed to get more seasoning in the minors. That&#8217;s why Griffin was brought in to back-up Lee at short and Alomar at second. Griffin held that job for 2 seasons (backing up Dick Schofield/Tony Fernandez and Alomar in 1993) and performed the way you&#8217;d expect a light-hitting back-up middle infielder to perform; he held his own defensively when called upon, while not proving to be very effective at the plate. Griffin retired after 1993, with his last moment on a baseball field being standing on deck to watch Joe Carter&#8217;s World Series winning drive to left field clear the fence.</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact:</em> Let&#8217;s be honest, Griffin was kind of bad. Known for playing fairly decent defense, he was an historically terrible hitter, finishing his career with a .249/.285/.319 slash line. So he didn&#8217;t hit for average, didn&#8217;t walk, didn&#8217;t hit for any kind of power, yet somehow managed to play in 1962 games. For players who had at least 7000 plate appearances at the major league level, his OBP is dead last&#8230;of ALL-TIME (the .319 slugging is 3rd worst, the batting average 5th worse). Yet amazingly, he just kept getting starting starting jobs, even somehow managing to somehow block future all-star shortstops (Tony Fernandez, Walt Weiss, and Jose Offerman) at three different stops in his career.</p>
<p><strong>7. March 15, 1978 &#8211; Rick Bosetti Acquired from the St. Louis Cardinals for Tom Bruno.</strong></p>
<p>During the expansion season of 1977, no one Blue Jay played more than 60 games in center field.  Going into the following spring training, no one appeared poised to grab the job, so the Jays pulled the trigger on a trade for 24 year old Rick Bosetti, who had played center for parts of the previous two seasons in St. Louis. He would immediately be installed as the Blue Jays starter, a role which he held for two seasons. A decent fielding outfielder, Bosetti&#8217;s .645 OPS in 1978 was hardly ideal, but for a team that managed to win only 58 games, it was certainly good enough to keep him in the line-up every day. For a new franchise that was desperately seeking some level of stability, simply being able to take the field every day made Bosetti a valuable Blue Jay, and earned him a spot on this list. He would be out of baseball by 1982, and has served as the mayor of Redding, California and is currently running for the California District State Assembly.</p>
<p><em>Fun (or Just Plain Weird) Fact:</em>  Bosetti was kind of weird.  He is on record as stating that it&#8217;s his goal to urinate in every baseball stadium in America.  It makes sense for a visiting player to want to mark his territory in some way in an unfamiliar ballpark, but this seems to be taking it to the extreme.</p>
<p><strong>6. March 29, 1994 &#8211; Mike Huff acquired from the Chicago White Sox for Domingo Martinez</strong></p>
<p>Possibly the least recognizable name on this list for Blue Jays fans, Mike Huff nonetheless was incredible for the Toronto Blue Jays in 1994 after being acquired at the end of spring training. Left field had been a position of weakness for the Blue Jays for much of 1993, and with Rickey Henderson returning to Oakland, the Jays were looking to add depth for the 1994 season. For this reason, Toronto shipped out first baseman Domingo Martinez (who would never play another game in the major leagues) for the four-year veteran, Huff. He finished the strike-season with a .304/.392/.449 slash line, with his OPS of .842, third on team behind Paul Molitor and John Olerud, but <em>ahead </em>of Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar. Suffice it to say, the Blue Jays were happy they made this move, despite the incredible disappointment of the year, both in terms of team success and a league wide strike. Unfortunately, Huff couldn&#8217;t replicate the success of 1994, ultimately losing his starting spot part-way through 1995 to Shawn Green. He was out of baseball entirely by the end of the 1996 season, but for one half season in 1994, the Blue Jays had a very very good left-fielder by the name of Mike Huff.</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact:</em> Despite the fact he started 80 out of 115 games in 1994, Huff didn&#8217;t win the job out of spring training. In fact, the opening day left fielder was actually some prospect by the name of Carlos Delgado. Delgado would struggle a bit at the plate and a lot in the field, and was eventually sent down to make way for Huff to begin his improbable run. We all know Delgado as the great first baseman he eventually became, but many of us likely forgot that the two-time defending World Series champions opened the following season with Delgado on the team, and in the outfield.</p>
<p><strong>5. March 15th, 1978 &#8211; Rico Carty acquired from the Cleveland Indians for Dennis DeBarr</strong></p>
<p>Carty was acquired on the same day as Bosetti. 38 years old at the time, Carty was still considered a pretty good hitter, having played very well for the Indians the past few seasons. Playing exclusively as the DH, he would be the best hitter in the Jays line-up by a fair margin for most of 1978, slugging 20 home runs for the team in 104 games with an OPS of .850. For his part, Dennis DeBarr, who had played 14 games in middle relief for the Blue Jays in 1977, would never play in the majors again.</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact</em>: Rico Carty apparently liked Toronto. With him hitting as well as he was, the Blue Jays traded Carty to an Oakland team hoping to finish with a winning record (they wouldn&#8217;t; they played terrible ball over the last month and a half and finished well below .500). He clearly held no ill feelings, as he would sign with the Jays in the following offseason anyway, finishing his career with one more season as the Jays DH. Uniquely, he had played AAA ball for the Toronto Maple Leafs as part the the Brewers organization in 1963. There&#8217;s a legend that while a member of the Maple Leafs, Carty hit two home runs in the same at bat, hitting one after the umpire had called time, but followed it up by hitting another one on the next pitch anyway.</p>
<p><strong>4. April 6, 1995 &#8211; David Cone acquired from Kansas City Royals for Chris Stynes, David Sinnes and Tony Medrano.</strong></p>
<p>This could have easily been number 1 on this list, had Cone not have been traded to the Yankees right before the trade deadline of the same year, as he was almost certainly the best player the Blue Jays ever picked up in Spring Training. To be fair, it&#8217;s also a slight misnomer; Cone was certainly traded for during Spring Training, but since the offseason started with baseball still mired in a strike, there hadn&#8217;t really been any transactions made up until that point. 1994 was a terrible season for the Blue Jays, so hoping to make the best of their second chance to defend their 1993 title, the Jays struck a deal for the the 1994 Cy Young Award winner, Cone. Hopes were high, as this team still had the core nucleus of the 1993 World Series championship team; Roberto Alomar, Joe Carter, John Olerud, Devon White, Paul Molitor, Pat Hengten, Juan Guzman, Duane Ward and Mike Timlin were all still Blue Jays. Cone would prove to be every bit the player Toronto hoped for, as he would go 9-6 with a 3.38 ERA with the Blue Jays, but the high expectations were misguided, as the Blue Jays sat in 5th place. Eventually, they traded Cone to the wild-card bound Yankees, where he&#8217;d go on to help the Yankees to earn the first ever American League Wild Card and win game four of the World Series as a member of the Evil Empire.  But for half a season, the Jays were treated to some of the best pitching in all of baseball. Going the other way were Chris Stynes, who was rated the Blue Jays 9th best prospect at the time of the trade (he would go on to have a 10 year career, mostly as a back-up), Tony Medrano, a career minor leaguer, and David Sinnes who would spend only one year in the Royals organization before retiring from the game at age 24.</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact:</em>  Most of us remember the <em>other </em>time the Blue Jays traded for David Cone. In 1992 the Jays picked him in August (how the heck did he clear waivers?!) and went on to win the World Series. At the end of that season, Cone decided to sign with the Kansas City Royals for three years/$18 million, making him the highest paid pitcher in the game at the time.  In 2015, another former Cy Young winner named David made his way into our hearts in a mid-season trade, only to leave and become highest paid pitcher in the the game at the end of the season. The contract? seven years/217 million. What a difference 22 years makes in terms of player salaries. Wow.</p>
<p><strong>3. March 16, 2000 &#8211; aquired Brad Fullmer in a three team trade (David Sequi going to the Rangers/Lee Stevens going to the Expos)</strong></p>
<p>In a rare trade that featured both the Toronto Blue Jays and Montreal Expos, the Blue Jays traded for Brad Fullmer in March of 2000, the last year before Rogers would take over ownership of the team from Interbrew. The Texas Rangers sent power hitting but defensively flawed and strike-out prone Lee Stevens to a Montreal Expos team hoping to contend, the Blue Jays sent slick-fielding, good hitting David Segui and his $4.3 Million contract to the Rangers, and the Expos send a 25 year old, mostly unproven first baseman to the Blue Jays. Brad Fullmer was by far the youngest, cheapest, and least accomplished of the three players involved, but would go on to have the best 2000 season of them all, hitting 32 home-runs and posting an .898 OPS as the Blue Jays full time DH. The 2000 Blue Jays had seven players who hit 20 home-runs, including four who hit more than 30, so Fullmer&#8217;s season is kind of lost in the shuffle, but he was very, very good that year, and cost significantly less than the guy for whom he was traded. He would play one more season as the Jay&#8217;s DH before being traded to the Angels, but Fullmer&#8217;s 2000 season is one of the best seasons by a DH the team has ever had.</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact:</em> This trade was pretty interesting for a variety of reasons. For one, all three teams traded only a first baseman (although most reports indicate that Blue Jays sent cash Texas&#8217; way as well). For another, David Segui had only recently joined the Blue Jays when he was dealt. Only half a game back of Boston for the wild card spot in July of 1999, the Blue Jays traded for Segui to bolster an already pretty great offense. He would play well the rest of the way, the Jays would score a team record number of runs, but they would finish 11 games back of the Wild Card. He actually re-signed with the Blue Jays in January before they traded him in March.</p>
<p><strong>2. John Mayberry Sr. Aquired from the Kansas City Royals for cash on April 3rd, 1978.</strong></p>
<p>The third move made by the new Jays franchise for a starting position player during spring training of 1978, Mayberry was a former two-time All-Star who had finished second in MVP voting in 1975. His stock had dropped since then, as he finished both the 1976 and 1977 with batting averages in the .230s. In fact, his coach, Whitey Herzog, had actually blamed him for the team&#8217;s 1977 ALDS loss to the Yankees (he struck out a lot, made errors and even arrived late to a game), so the team didn&#8217;t really want to keep him. Waiting until almost the start of the season, the Blue Jays managed to pick Mayberry up for just cash, and immediately plugged him in as their starting first baseman. While he was never able to regain his former glory, Mayberry nonetheless proved a valuable player in the middle of the team&#8217;s order for the next few seasons, even managing to hit 30 home runs in 1980. He played five seasons in Toronto, and even spent some years as a coach in their system following his retirement.</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact:</em> Mayberry&#8217;s son, John Mayberry Jr. is currently in the Tigers training camp trying to crack the roster.  He has played for a variety of major league teams, including a short stint in Toronto in 2014, making John Mayberry and John Mayberry, the only father and son pairing to both suit up for the Blue Jays to this point (unless we count Prince Fielder&#8217;s apparently legendary adolescent batting practices in Toronto).</p>
<p><strong>1. Rance Mulliniks: acquired from the Kansas City Royals for Phil Huffman on March 25, 1982</strong></p>
<p>Rance Mulliniks was drafted as a shortstop, but had languished in the minors, spending only parts of five seasons in the big leagues. Already 25 and running out of options, the Blue Jays saw something they liked, picking him up for pitcher Phil Huffman. Huffman hadn&#8217;t played with the big league club since 1979, a year in which he lost 18 games due in large part to being fairly terrible, so he was easily expendable. Mulliniks was immediately moved to third base (a position occupied on his former team by some guy named George Brett) as the left-handed side of a platoon with Garth Iorg. . Rance immediately proved he could handle the position defensively, and his offense started to come around as well, especially his ability to get on base, as he would end his Jays career with an OBP of .365. The platoon would last until 1987, when Iorg retired and Mulliniks was moved to DH to make room for Kelly Gruber. Mulliniks played 11 years as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, and in only one of them, his first year in 1982, did the Blue Jays have a losing season. He played an integral part on the first Blue Jays playoff team, and was able to gain a ring in his final season with the club in 1992. This is one reason why he&#8217;s first on this list. The other is that Phil Huffman never played a game for the Royals big league club, and was out of baseball by the end of 1985, having pitched only 4.2 innings since the trade. Basically, this ended up being possibly the most lopsided trade in the history of the Blue Jays (non-Jose Bautista for Robinzon Diaz division).</p>
<p><em>Fun Fact:</em>  Rance Mulliniks was slow his entire career, and obviously even slower late in his career. Of some surprise, then, is that he actually hit the first inside the park home room ever at the Skydome. On July 11, 1991, as a 35 year DH, Mulliniks &#8220;sprinted&#8221; around the bases after a drive off of Kevin Brown in a 2-0 victory for the first place, playoff bound Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers.  It would prove to be the last home-run of his career.</p>
<p>So, there you have it. Nine players that the Jays picked up late in the offseason, after the sounds of spring had already started.  You may have noticed that the most recent player on this list was acquired in the year 2000. It&#8217;s been a long time since the Jays have made any significant Spring Training moves, so hopefully Soriano, Brown, or even another addition over the next few weeks can make an appearance on a future issue of &#8220;The Nine&#8221; as key late moves for the eventual 2016 World Series champions.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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