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	<title>Toronto &#187; trade</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>Blue Jays Add Depth in Trade for RHP Tom Koehler</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/19/news-jays-send-gutierrez-away-say-hello-to-tom-koehler/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Aug 2017 01:14:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miami Marlins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[minor league]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Osman Guiterrez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Koehler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13032</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have made a trade in the August window. &#160; Blue Jays acquire RHP Tom Koehler from Miami in exchange for minor league RHP Osman Gutierrez. https://t.co/MmeKMQGAS6 — Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) August 19, 2017 &#160; Toronto receives 31 year old Tom Koehler (RHP) from the Marlins in exchange for 22 year old [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have made a trade in the August window.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Blue Jays acquire RHP Tom Koehler from Miami in exchange for minor league RHP Osman Gutierrez. <a href="https://t.co/MmeKMQGAS6">https://t.co/MmeKMQGAS6</a></p>
<p>— Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysPR/status/899052120019783682">August 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Toronto receives 31 year old Tom Koehler (RHP) from the Marlins in exchange for 22 year old RHP Osman Gutierrez. Gutierrez was struggling in low A, with a 7.85 ERA in 78.0 innings as a starter. He throws quite hard (95-97), but seems to be a long way from ever being in consideration for a big league roster. He didn&#8217;t crack the mlb.com midseason prospect ranking update for the club. The Blue Jays will also receive cash considerations from Miami, as Koehler is in the midst of a season which is paying him $5.5M in his second tour through arbitration.</p>
<p>The Jays get Koehler, who has pitched exclusively as a starter in both AAA and the majors for the Marlins this year. In parts of six MLB seasons, Koehler has developed a bit of a walk problem, his BB/9 climbing from 9% in 2013 up to 11.2% this year, while his K% has hung around 17-19%. Just to put the icing on the cake, he&#8217;s also suffered through a career high 2.43 HR/9 in 2017, which is more than double what he&#8217;s ever experienced before. His changeup has been a particular problem, as hitters have slugged a whopping .941 on the pitch. We can&#8217;t all be happy about the juiced ball now, can we?</p>
<p>Koehler<em> has</em> pitched very well since going back to the minors briefly, tossing 41 2/3 innings of 2.16 ERA ball with a whopping 60 strikeouts, but his home run problems haven&#8217;t completed disappeared (he has given up six for a HR/9 of 1.3, which is still above average).</p>
<p>The Jays bullpen has lacked a long man, so maybe the Jays are hoping for a little regression on that long ball front to go with a few innings eaten up. Someone has to be there if Biagini&#8217;s starts don&#8217;t go entirely as planned. Or maybe Biagini has to be there if Koehler&#8217;s starts don&#8217;t go as planned. I&#8217;m open to ideas.</p>
<p>Koehler will also be eligible for another tour of arbitration next season, which gives the Blue Jays some options to try and hold onto him for depth. With this year&#8217;s issues and Estrada potentially leaving as a free agent, the club will certainly need a few options for the back of the rotation. Koehler is a serious non-tender candidate with that $5.5M salary, but the extra window will allow the Jays to try and work out a deal with him below that amount.</p>
<p>So farewell to Osman, we hardly knew ye. And lastly, remember, Koehler still eligible for the playoff roster, so no worries about not being able to use him when the team gets to the ALDS.</p>
<p>Lead Photo: <em>Steve Mitchell</em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Patrick Corbin: Potential Andrew Miller Clone and Blue Jays Target</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/10/patrick-corbin-potential-andrew-miller-clone-and-blue-jays-target/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Nov 2016 14:46:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patrick Corbin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PitchFX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7872</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ignore the modest save total of twelve: Andrew Miller was one of the best relievers in baseball during the 2016 regular season, and was the best reliever in baseball during the postseason. He was unquestionably the deciding factor in the Blue Jays ALCS defeat at the hands of Cleveland, as favorable scheduling and deft usage [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ignore the modest save total of twelve: Andrew Miller was one of the best relievers in baseball during the 2016 regular season, and was <em>the</em> best reliever in baseball during the postseason. He was unquestionably the deciding factor in the Blue Jays ALCS defeat at the hands of Cleveland, as favorable scheduling and deft usage by Terry Francona allowed the left hander to appear in four of the five games. During that stretch, he he struck out 14 of his MLB-record 30 postseason batters over 7.2 innings of work.</p>
<p>Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, and the rest of the front office would certainly love to get their hands on Miller, but with two reasonably priced years remaining on his contract Cleveland seems unlikely to bring him to market – and even if they did, it would be for an unpalatable ransom for a reliever coming off a massive single-season workload of 93.2 innings. While in possession of similarly dominant track records, even if one could stomach the estimated 15 million (or more) per season they’ll demand, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman seem like equally far-fetched alternatives due to their attached qualifying offer and history of domestic violence, respectively. With all due respect to Brett Cecil, who is a very, very good reliever in his own right, if the Blue Jays want to add a dominant reliever to the 2017 bullpen without crippling their payroll, farm system, or morals, they’re going to need to get creative.</p>
<p>So creative, in fact, they might want to look backwards before looking forward.</p>
<p>Long before Andrew Miller took over the baseball world with a seemingly infinite cascade of wipe-out sliders, he was a starting pitcher for the Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins, and Boston Red Sox. Miller was taken sixth overall in the 2006 amateur draft, debuted that same year, and after dabbling with a cutter and curveball in the early stages of his career, settled into a three pitch mix featuring his four seam fastball, slider, and changeup.</p>
<p>While he had the occasional bullpen stint, Miller was used primarily as a starting pitcher over the next five seasons but never performed particularly well despite the flashy pedigree and substantial signing bonus. The left hander would be traded twice; the first time headlining the package for Miguel Cabrera, the second time for someone named Dustin Richardson in a straight one-for-one before being non-tendered shortly thereafter, perfectly epitomizing how far his stock had fallen by the end of 2010.</p>
<p>Red Sox manager Terry Francona pushed to have the club bring Miller back after he was non-tendered, as he and the coaching staff felt as though they could correct a flaw in his mechanics and get his career back on track. A month later Miller came to terms with the club, but despite Francona’s aspirations, the 2011 season was yet another tumultuous adventure through the wilderness for the lefty. In one of his final moves before Boston hilariously moved on to Bobby Valentine at the end of the 2011 season, Tito made the call to transition Miller to the bullpen full time – a decision that seems absolutely brilliant in hindsight.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
<p>The first thing that Andrew Miller did as a reliever was ditch his changeup, a dreadful pitch that had done nothing to stifle right handed batters throughout his career. He had thrown the changeup around 15 percent of the time over three years from 2009 through 2011 – more often than his slider in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, in fact. In its stead, Miller immediately began throwing that slider 40 percent of the time, and has since upped that usage as high as 60 percent in the 2016 season. Conversely, Miller’s slider is obviously a fantastic pitch. Even at his lowest point the breaking ball was getting whiffs on over 35 percent of swings taken against it, and more recently has generated whiff per swing rates of 55.1, 55.2, and 46.9 percent over the last three years.</p>
<p>Miller’s four seam fastball received the “bullpen bump” after he transitioned to relief. The pitch averaged between 91 and 92 miles per hour in the rotation in 2009 and 2010, climbed over 93 in 2011 thanks to a big September, and has averaged between 95 and 96 miles per hour in each of his five full-time relief seasons. A lot is made of velocity – admittedly sometimes too much – but as Table 1 explains, the move allowed Miller to cross a critical velocity threshold.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/11/Table-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7876" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/11/Table-1.png" alt="Table 1" width="594" height="432" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">The graph above was created using the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search">PitchFX data available on MLB Savant</a>, and shows how batters perform against four seam, two seam, and sinking fastballs as pitch velocity increases. Both batting average and slugging percentage decline as velocity increases, which is expected, but what is most interesting is how the velocities appear to coalesce into tiers. Fastballs from 88 to 91 miles per hour are damaged at more-or-less the same magnitude, but there’s a sharp decline in batter performance from there to 93 miles per hour, where batting average and slugging percentage drop by about 30 and 70 points, respectively. The 93 to 95 miles per hour window is again something of a plateau, with a steep deterioration in batter success at every step from 96 and beyond. In moving from the rotation to the bullpen, Miller’s four seam fastball jumped more than a full tier, with the expected slugging percentage falling from .495 to .420. That’s monumental.</p>
<p>With this information in hand I set out with the goal of finding the next Andrew Miller, or at least, a poor man’s Andrew Miller. Using the pitching leaderboard over at Fangraphs, I ran a report for all pitchers who threw 30 or more innings in the rotation in 2016, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=sta&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=30&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0">which turned out 213 names</a>. From there, I began trimming the sample with criteria that meet or best describe Andrew Miller’s transformation. Pitchers who were worth more than 1.5 fWAR in 2016 were removed first, as the foundation for this exercise is to look at failed starters. From there, the population was cut further to only those pitchers with an average fastball velocity of 91.0 miles per hour or greater in order for the “bullpen bump” to facilitate a leap into the next velocity tier. The third and most pivotal step was to eliminate all pitchers that did not have two or more secondary pitches thrown in excess of 10 percent of the time, as like Miller and his changeup, there must be something to dispose of at the expense of better offerings.</p>
<p>This trimmed the list of pitchers from 213 down to 47, which was reduced further by removing the “obviously not going to be converted&#8221; starters that also met the criteria such as Sonny Gray, Jose Berrios, Daniel Norris, and Garrett Richards among many others. Now down to 30, a few names started to jump out as intriguing prospects for a bullpen conversion. Jimmy Nelson, Clayton Richard, and Lucas Harrell all have a decent fastball/breaking ball combination and a changeup just begging to be dropped, but one name truly emerged as an almost perfect candidate to be the next Andrew Miller: <strong>Patrick Corbin of the Arizona Diamondbacks.</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
<p>The left hander made 24 starts from April through mid-August, over which he struggled to a 5.58 ERA and equally troubling fielding independent metrics. After giving up eight runs on nine hits in what would be his final start of the year on August 12th, the Diamondbacks made the decision to shift him to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. With a 2.70 ERA over 12 appearances his performance was nothing short of spectacular, but even that fails to give proper justice to how dominating Corbin was down the stretch, and how well his arsenal played up in the bullpen.</p>
<p>Despite it being the tail end of his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, the “bullpen bump” was in full effect for Corbin. His four seam fastball and sinker, which averaged 92.3 and 93.6 miles per hour in the rotation, jumped all the way up to 94.2 and 94.6 miles per hour in the bullpen; a surge of nearly two full ticks on his primary offering. Referring to Table 1 above once again, while this increase doesn’t appear to do a ton to stifle opposing batting averages, jumping from 92 to 94 carries an expected decline in opposing slugging of 37 points. The sample size is admittedly small, but this played out on the field as batters slugged .565 against his four seam fastball as a starter and just .452 as a reliever.</p>
<p>In relief, while his fastball (four seam + sinker) usage remained steady at roughly 63 percent, Corbin dropped his changeup usage from 10.46 to 5.11 percent. This decline was replaced by a growth in his slider reliance, which increased from 25.65 to 31.82 percent of total pitches thrown. That should be taken a whole lot further, too.</p>
<p>Andrew Miller’s slider is lauded for being nigh-untouchable, and rightfully so. What’s truly remarkable about Patrick Corbin is that his slider might be just as good, if not even a little better than that of Miller. Table 2 below details Miller and Corbin’s slider usage and whiff rates over the last five seasons. Despite facing batters two, three, and even four times on any given night as a starter, Corbin’s slider produced a better whiff per swing rate than Miller in two of his three healthy seasons. When the playing field was finally leveled as Corbin shifted to the bullpen at the end of 2016, his whiff rate blew past Miller and it wasn’t all that close.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/11/Table-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-7877" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/11/Table-2.png" alt="Table 2" width="506" height="185" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">That there is one bastard of a breaking ball. Using the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/index.php?hand=&amp;reportType=pfx&amp;prp=RP&amp;month=&amp;year=2016&amp;pitch=SL&amp;ds=ws&amp;lim=100">Baseball Prospectus PitchFX Leaderboard</a>, its whiff per swing rate of 61.36 percent was the second highest among 165 relievers to throw 100 or more sliders, behind only Ken Giles of the Astros, and its groundball rate of 70 percent was tied for first. Patrick Corbin’s slider is legitimately one of the best pitches in all of baseball, and it has been criminally underutilized for far too long.</p>
<p>Honestly, it’s legitimately dumbfounding that Corbin has continued to throw a changeup at all. Its primary utility is to shut down opposite handed batters, especially for pitchers who feature a slider associated with heavy platoon splits. It hasn’t played out that way for Corbin. The lefty has thrown 886 changeups to right handed batters in his career, and they’ve demolished it for a .335 batting average and .608 slugging percentage. Meanwhile, the 1,326 sliders that Corbin has thrown to right handed batters have resulted in a .145 average and .256 slugging percentage.</p>
<p>Again, versus right handers, he’s surrendered just eight home runs with 224 strikeouts with the slider, compared to eleven dingers and just 10 strikeouts with the changeup. Moving forward, regardless of his role &#8212; though it would obviously play up better in the bullpen &#8212; Patrick Corbin should be a four seam fastball, sinker, and slider guy. Full stop.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
<p>If the elite slider alone isn’t enough to whet your appetite, what makes Corbin even more fascinating as a relief option is the length that his history in the rotation could allow. It was noted earlier that Corbin made 12 relief appearances to conclude the season, but what was intentionally omitted at the time was that those outings covered 23.1 innings. Excluding the August 19th appearance in which he was shelled and the September 9th appearance in which he was asked to face only one batter, the following are the number of batters Corbin faced in each of his other ten outings: 8, 9, 10, 6, 8, 12, 9, 8, 7, and 9. In a surprisingly progressive fashion given the organization’s previous hierarchy, Diamondbacks manager Chip Hale basically asked Corbin to blow through the entire lineup one time, or until his own spot came up in the batting order.</p>
<p>If you forecast his workload from the final seven weeks out to a full season, Corbin’s relief usage would look something like 87 innings spanning 45 appearances. Brad Hand of the Padres led all of baseball with 89.1 innings of work out of the bullpen in 2016, so while using Corbin in that way wouldn’t be unprecedented; it would certainly fall near the current extremes. The biggest difference between the two would be that it took Hand a rather questionable and potentially abusive 82 appearances to get there.</p>
<p>Having a stable of elite relief options was in vogue during the Royals 2014 and 2015 runs to the World Series, but the 2016 postseason took things a step further as managers turned to those elite options earlier and more often. It feels like we’ve experienced a shift in philosophy; away from catering to the arbitrary “save” statistic and towards the far more logical “use your best damn guys in the biggest situations” approach.</p>
<p>It may seem like he&#8217;s been around for a while but Corbin will still be just 27 years old on Opening Day, has two years of team control remaining, and should make in the neighborhood of 4.2 million next year according to the <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-2017.html">MLB Trade Rumors arbitration estimates</a>. Rather than trying to reinforce the bullpen by spending top dollar or top prospects, the Blue Jays might be better served to follow this or a similar exercise, look at how the best arms came to be the best arms, and work from there to recreate them. It seems obvious, but if you want an Andrew Miller but don’t want to pay Andrew Miller prices, find the next Andrew Miller. Patrick Corbin might just be that guy.</p>
<p><em>*All PitchFX figures from <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=571578&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=pcount&amp;s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;startDate=01/01/2016&amp;endDate=01/01/2017">BrooksBaseball.net</a> unless otherwise noted.</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Andrew McCutchen: A Wise Trade Investment for the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/02/andrew-mccutchen-a-wise-investment/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/02/andrew-mccutchen-a-wise-investment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Nov 2016 11:20:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blue Jayst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7747</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There’s more than one way to flex your financial muscle in the game of baseball. Shouldering out lesser bidders and landing the top free agents available in November is the standard by which most fans measure their team’s fiscal heft. However, as the Toronto Blue Jays deftly displayed at the non-waiver trade deadline last summer, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There’s more than one way to flex your financial muscle in the game of baseball. Shouldering out lesser bidders and landing the top free agents available in November is the standard by which most fans measure their team’s fiscal heft. However, as the Toronto Blue Jays deftly displayed at the non-waiver trade deadline last summer, absorbing expensive contracts from teams moving in another direction is another, equally-excellent way of acquiring talent. For those who may have forgotten, just before the 4 pm cut-off on August 1st, the Blue Jays swung a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, surrendering Triple-A right hander Drew Hutchison for left handed starter Francisco Liriano <em>and </em>two top-ten organizational prospects, with the “catch”, if you’d define it as such, being that Toronto would take on the entirety of the $18 million still owed to Liriano between 2016 and 2017.</p>
<p>I can’t think of a single writer or baseball analyst who didn’t absolutely <em>love </em>the move for Toronto at the time, and the results were as sound as the process. Not only did Liriano allow the Blue Jays to move to a six man rotation to space out Aaron Sanchez’ appearances and give Marco Estrada’s ailing back some extended rest, but he channeled his 2013-2015 Pirates’ self on the mound and gave strong start after strong start down the stretch when the club needed him the most. The two prospects that arrived with Liriano – catcher Reese McGuire and outfielder Harold Ramirez – rank as the fourth and fifth best in the Blue Jays’ system <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/#list=tor">according to MLB.com</a>, but they’re the icing on an already delicious cake. Taking on the full Liriano contract in order to minimize the talent necessary to be relinquished was arguably General Manager Ross Atkins’ niftiest move yet.</p>
<p>Regardless of how the discussions with Jose Bautista unfold, his defensive performance this postseason made it abundantly clear to all potential suitors that he should no longer be realistically considered an outfielder, and negotiations should be handled with sights firmly set on a designated hitter role. When coupled with Michael Saunders’ impending free agency, Toronto suddenly has a pair of potential openings in the outfield corners, at least one of which could be filled by another of Russell Martin’s former Pittsburgh teammates: Andrew McCutchen.</p>
<p>That’s a flashy introduction, but the justification behind McCutchen’s <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/pirates-focusing-on-run-prevention.html">(prospective) availability</a> is that last season he looked little like the five-time All Star the baseball world has come to know and love.  He’s become an expensive luxury for the penny-pinching Pirates. The outfielder turned in career worst walk and strikeout rates as well as his lowest ISO since 2010, leading to an uninspiring .256/.336/.430 slash line. Even still, it was the athletic domains, fielding and base-running, where statistically he appeared to be most a shell of his former self. McCutchen’s -28 DRS were easily the worst among qualified outfielders in 2016.  He was also firmly in the “poor” range in base running according to the metrics, which evaluates a runner based on the sum of their ability to advance the extra base, avoid double plays, and steal bases, all relative to league average.</p>
<p>The Pirates would almost certainly love to keep McCutchen; he’s the face of their franchise, and was the standard bearer as the organization <em>finally </em>advanced to three consecutive postseasons in 2013, 2014, and 2015. But, if any organization has the in-house means to replace a former MVP in the outfield, it’s them. Between 28 year old Starling Marte and 25 year old Gregory Polanco, who are locked up for five and seven more years respectively, the club is already rich in outfield talent at the Major League level. Backing up the pair is a ready-made replacement in Austin Meadows, who ranked as <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28319">Baseball Prospectus&#8217; 22nd best prospect in baseball</a> prior to 2016. He should be ready come the passing of the Super 2 deadline.</p>
<p>Last season Andrew McCutchen turned in a career worst batting line, played the worst centerfield defense in baseball, ran the bases like a 240-pound first baseman, and is still owed at least $14.5 million. If you’re questioning why on earth the Blue Jays should be interested in ‘Cutch, your skepticism is justified, however there are reasons to be optimistic for improvement in each of the three facets he struggled so mightily with.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>What was said about his career-worst walk and strikeout rates and his lowest ISO since 2010 remains absolutely true, but mid-20’s, prime Andrew McCutchen set an awfully high, Hall-of-Fame level bar, and expecting the early 30’s model to maintain that extraordinary standard would be unfair. His 10.2 percent walk rate was still a full two points better than league average, while his 21.2 percent strikeout rate <em>was </em>league average. McCutchen’s .174 ISO in 2016 represented a 22 point decline relative to 2015 and a 54 point decline relative to 2014, but interestingly, both his flyball and home run per flyball rates remained consistent across the three years.</p>
<p>Using the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2016&amp;abs=100&amp;player_type=batter">Statcast Leaderboard</a> over at Baseball Savant, we can see that McCutchen did lose a little on his exit velocity. His average flyball or line drive was a scorching 95.2 miles per hour in 2015, but fell to a still-above-league-average 94.1 last season. Similarly, his barrel rate (defined as the percentage of balls with an expected batting average/slugging of .500/.1500 based on exit velocity and launch angle) also fell, from 10.6 percent of all batted ball events in 2015 to 8.8 percent in 2016. Unfortunately there is no data available prior to the 2015 season so we can’t observe much in terms of career trends or patterns, but one would think it would take more than a decline of 1 mph in exit velocity to result in a 15 percent drop in extra base hits.</p>
<p>Perhaps the primary culprit for McCutchen’s substandard offensive season, particularly in the power department, was a thumb injury suffered in late May that was <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/181796026/pirates-andrew-mccutchen-injures-right-thumb/">further aggravated in a game against Miami on June 2nd</a>. McCutchen avoided the disabled list, but his performance on the field suffered greatly. Over 26 games in June he hit an abysmal .202/.255/.323, and as we saw first-hand with Josh Donaldson late this season, a jammed thumb can nag for quite some time as it&#8217;s so easily aggravated. With the Pirates&#8217; season firmly in the toilet, McCutchen finally got the physical and mental blow he desperately needed, even if it was one he didn’t especially want. After wrapping up a series against the Brewers on July 31st, <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/heres-why-the-pirates-have-benched-andrew-mccutchen-all-week-080416">Pirates manager Clint Hurdle gave his star the entire next series against the Braves off</a>, refusing to consider even a pinch-hit opportunity. From his August 5th return through the closure of the season, McCutchen hit a robust .284/.381/.471, and the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=9847&amp;position=OF&amp;type=&amp;gds=2016-08-05&amp;gde=2016-10-02&amp;season=">supporting numbers are even more glowing</a>. The centerfielder posted walk and strikeout rates of 13.9 and 14.8 percent, respectively, with a .188 ISO, 40.2 percent hard-hit rate, and 8.7 percent whiff rate; all of which were topped off by a 13-game hit streak in mid-September. While you can’t simply wipe out four months of struggles, the August/September version of Andrew McCutchen bears a much better resemblance to what one should expect offensively in the center fielder’s short-term future.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>Just to reiterate last season’s putridity: -28 DRS. There should be a significant asterisk on those figures, however, as a lot of what happened was the consequence of the Pittsburgh coaching staff aligning their outfield differently in 2016 in hopes of better serving their pitching staff.</p>
<p>In 2015, when McCutchen posted bad-but-not-horrendous defensive numbers (-8 DRS), he was positioned an average of 316 feet from home plate; the <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/169428902/kiermaier-plays-baseballs-deepest-center/">fifth deepest among 36 centerfielders on the field for at least 1,000 batted balls</a>. When reviewing the 2015 season over the winter, the Pirates analytics staff discovered that because of their outfield depth and their groundball-heavy pitching staff, they were surrendering too many easy extra bases, be it first-to-third or second-to-home, and too many bloops between the infielders and outfielders. As Clint Hurdle <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/171515768/pirates-positioning-outfield-shallower-in-2016/">said to Adam Berry of MLB.com</a> in April:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;It was glaringly apparent that we could make an adjustment on our end, especially with the athleticism we have with our outfielders, and change the dynamic of what&#8217;s gone on as far as run prevention goes.”</em></p>
<p>The justification was reasonable, as in 2015 the Pirates pitching staff allowed the second shortest average flyball/line drive distance at 285 feet, but allowed the second highest batting average on those batted balls at .482. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, two things happened in 2016. First; McCutchen <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/203465228/statcast-outfield-positioning-harper-mccutchen/">lined up ten feet closer (an average of 306 feet from home plate)</a> but the Pirates average flyball/line drive distance actually increased in 2016. Second; the overall groundball rate of the Pirates staff fell from 50.4 percent to 46.9 percent, and at the expense of those groundballs came more flyballs and line drives. In combination, this resulted in fewer weak batted balls hit in front of McCutchen, and more hard-hit towards the gaps or behind him. Flyballs and line drives are more devastating than groundballs when they find grass – and thus have the greatest influence on run-saving defensive metrics – so before McCutchen even set foot on the field last season he was already behind the 8-ball.</p>
<p>Defense fades as players age, absolutely, but the Pirates coaching staff was the overarching reason why McCutchen statistically looked like a 40-year old out there in 2016. The first step for any team acquiring Andrew McCutchen? Let him play deeper. The second? Shift him to an outfield corner.</p>
<p>The best argument to be made may be the case of Adam Eaton of the White Sox, who entered 2016 as a 27-year old coming off a season in centerfield in which he cost his team defensively with -14 DRS. The Chicago coaching staff made the decision to switch him to right field, and he rewarded them with a Gold Glove caliber, +22 DRS season. An offseason signing of Austin Jackson spurned the move for Eaton and the White Sox; with Kevin Pillar in place for the Blue Jays, a shift for McCutchen wouldn’t even be a question.</p>
<p>Cutch will be six months on the wrong side of 30 next April, so even with a shift to left or right field in the cards it’s unlikely he’d have a full-blown Eaton-esque renaissance. Still, playing a deeper outfield on one of Kevin Pillar’s flanks in front of a suffocating pitching staff could transform him back from historically poor liability to competent defender, which would be huge for both the Blue Jays immediate Championship aspirations and McCutchen’s future earning potential.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>Andrew McCutchen is getting older and humans tend to get slower as they get older, yet his base running numbers are puzzling even with this in mind, as he seemingly runs when he shouldn’t, and stays put when he should.</p>
<p>Known as a five-tool prospect, McCutchen stole 20-plus bases in five consecutive seasons to open his Major League career. Over the past three that figure has dropped to 18, 11, and just six last season, which was highlighted by seven caught stealing for an atrocious success rate of 46 percent.  McCutchen was never an elite base stealer; his success rate has eclipsed 80 percent just twice in eight years (2009, 2014) as he has relied more on his physical gifts than on perfectly timing the pitcher. McCutchen is clearly cognizant of his diminished speed as his overall attempt volume has decreased in each of the last four seasons, but with two first-base pickoffs and one caught stealing of third among his seven stealing outs, his ability to read pitchers hasn’t progressed quite the way you’d expect and hope for a veteran player.</p>
<p>Beyond just base stealing, McCutchen has gotten significantly worse at taking the extra base when a single or double is hit behind him. Baseball-Reference defines Extra Base Taken Percentage (XBT%) as the “percentage of times the runner advanced more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double, when possible”, while admittedly not accounting for batted ball type or location. Basically, this measures the ability to go first-to-third on a single and first-to-home on a double. McCutchen <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01-bat.shtml">took the extra base just 27 percent of the time in 2016</a>, which was down from 29 percent in 2015, 41 percent in 2014, and 64 percent (!!!) in 2013. Contextually, in any given year the league average is around 40 percent.</p>
<p>On November 5, 2014, the Pirates announced that Nick Leyva and Rick Sofield would be switching duties, with Leyva moving from first over to the third base coach duties, and Sofield vice-versa. Since the third base coach is responsible for making the call to advance runners, the change from Leyva to Sofield could potentially explain some of McCutchen’s recent inhibitions. Under Leyva the Pirates as a team took the extra base 41 and 40 percent of the time in 2013 and 2014, and remained consistent at 41 percent under Sofield’s direction in 2015. It wasn’t until 2016 that the team took a step back as a whole, falling to 35 percent despite a roster that most outside observers would consider quick.</p>
<p>That mark is actually below the 2016 Blue Jays, who managed an advancement rate of 38 percent with an offense consisting mostly of mashers in their early 30’s and a dude with one knee. While I don’t think anyone would <em>want </em>to see McCutchen try to take the extra base 60-plus percent of the time like he did as a 26-year old, there’s no reason for him to be that far below both the team and league average.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>In summary, Andrew McCutchen was sort of bad in 2016 and the Pirates could <em>potentially </em>be shopping him this offseason as he approaches free agency, but there are signs that he should rebound nicely moving into 2017 and 2018. While McCutchen wouldn’t address the lopsided, right-handed nature of the lineup, the Blue Jays should absolutely be interested. He would be a perfect fit and conceivably a massive defensive upgrade in in left or right field, and while he’s been mostly a number three hitter, his .381 career on-base percentage sure would look good in the leadoff position ahead of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and (hopefully) Edwin Encarnacion and/or Jose Bautista in some configuration.</p>
<p>What would he cost the Blue Jays? While I couldn’t hazard a guess at the specifics, I’m confident that despite his down year and rising salary, there would be a long line of organizations dying to get their hands on the outfielder, so it would cost significantly more than Drew Hutchison, and you wouldn’t be getting prospects <em>back</em>, that’s for certain. The Blue Jays wouldn’t deal Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman, who are expected to be rotation stalwarts in both the short and long term futures, but would the re-tooling Pirates be interested in the final two years of J.A. Happ’s contract – a pitcher whom the organization covets but fell short on re-signing last winter? What about the under-appreciated Dalton Pompey, who is seemingly and frustratingly going nowhere in Toronto? Might they be intrigued by the young arms of Sean Reid-Foley or Conner Greene, who are pushing into the upper levels of the minor leagues? What about Rowdy Tellez to offer a power jolt in place of John Jaso in the very near future?</p>
<p>All of that is without mentioning Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Anthony Alford, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#yvgDWXIkHrBZAIPy.97">the two top prospects in the system</a> according to the recently published rankings over at Baseball America. Both of whom possess the star potential that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins would almost certainly want to keep within the organization behind the aging offense. There are so many possible combinations of players that without a report from Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, or Jeff Passan explicitly saying “The Pirates are interested in X, Y, and Z”, it’s impossible to draw something up that you could stand behind with any confidence here in the first week of November.</p>
<p>This new front office wants to build sustainably, and understandably for that very reason they value prospects and controllable talent. But, Andrew McCutchen would help the Toronto Blue Jays today and in the future. He could be traded again twelve months from now if things go sour in 2017, or given a qualifying offer twenty-four months from now if they don’t. You would have to give up a chunk of talent now, sure, but you would be getting Andrew freaking McCutchen to reinforce the last few great years of the careers of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin – all of whom play for the Toronto Blue Jays, by the way.</p>
<p>Furthermore, acquiring McCutchen would in no way preclude the organization from using their other financial resources to re-sign Encarnacion, Bautista, or even both. You would be dramatically augmenting the present by turning first round-caliber talents Sean Reid-Foley or Conner Greene (and other stuff) into a first round pick in June 2019. The youth isn’t entirely removed from the organization; it’s simply delayed by a couple of years, and during that delay, the fans will be filling the Rogers Centre as the team looks for its third and potentially fourth consecutive playoff berths.</p>
<p>To have a sustainable winner, the farm system must be given attention and nurtured, absolutely. But in the same vein as an organization’s financial resources, there’s more than one way to use your prospects, too. Andrew McCutchen may be the perfect opportunity to massage both into a premier asset.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>He&#8217;s Back: Blue Jays Trade for Dioner Navarro</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/26/news-dioner-navarro-just-when-he-thought-he-was-out-they-pulled-him-back-in/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/26/news-dioner-navarro-just-when-he-thought-he-was-out-they-pulled-him-back-in/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Aug 2016 00:36:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dioner Navarro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5959</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a surprise move that was announced just prior to the start of Friday’s game, the Jays have traded for catcher Dioner Navarro in exchange for minor-league left-handed pitcher Colton Turner. The @BlueJays have acquired C Dioner Navarro from Chicago in exchange for LHP Colton Turner. Welcome back Dioner! pic.twitter.com/cRFcXhhbGh &#8212; Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a surprise move that was announced just prior to the start of Friday’s game, the Jays have traded for catcher Dioner Navarro in exchange for minor-league left-handed pitcher Colton Turner.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays">@BlueJays</a> have acquired C Dioner Navarro from Chicago in exchange for LHP Colton Turner. Welcome back Dioner! <a href="https://t.co/cRFcXhhbGh">pic.twitter.com/cRFcXhhbGh</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/769313683176423424">August 26, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Navarro, of course, was the Jays’ full time catcher in 2014 and the back-up catcher behind Russell Martin last season. He left Toronto at the end of 2015 as a free agent and signed a one-year $4 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. In 85 games thus far this season, he’s batting .210/.267/.339 with an OPS of .606. He provides a switch-hitting bat off the bench and will likely back-up Martin once again, which is of particular importance given the likelihood of R.A. Dickey being left off the playoff roster, negating the need for Josh Thole.</p>
<p>It is also noteworthy that Narvarro caught Marco Estrada last season. Given Estrada&#8217;s recent struggles on the mound, it will be interesting to see if the two become battery mates once again. The Jays have often looked to carry a third catcher during September&#8217;s expanded roster period, and without an heir apparent in the Jays system, Navarro fills that role.</p>
<p>Colton Turner is a twenty-five year old lefty who had been playing with the Double-A New Hampshire Fishercats, where he had a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.09 in 54 innings pitched.</p>
<p><em> Lead photo- Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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