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	<title>Toronto &#187; Texas Rangers</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Rangers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-rangers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jun 2017 15:43:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Mike Passador, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski Coming in Hot The Blue Jays have done well to climb out of an early hole, but can’t seem to crack .500. They found themselves gifted with four consecutive series against lackluster opponents but have squandered their opportunity thus far, having dropped the first two sets against Oakland [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Mike Passador, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">Coming in Hot</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays have done well to climb out of an early hole, but can’t seem to crack .500. They found themselves gifted with four consecutive series against lackluster opponents but have squandered their opportunity thus far, having dropped the first two sets against Oakland and the White Sox. While the Rangers might’ve looked vulnerable this time two weeks ago, they’ll kick things off against the Jays at 34-34 as owners of an 8-3 record over their last 11 games.</p>
<p>Texas has been scorching offensively, averaging 5.8 runs since their short set with the Mets that began on June 6th, thrice hitting double digits. The Rangers have collected 36 extra base hits over that 11 game stretch, with at least one homer in every single contest. They’ve hit 19 dingers in total, with four of them coming from Rougned Odor. The Rangers are heating up with the weather and it could portend trouble if the Jays’ starters are even slightly off.</p>
<p>Toronto will trot out the typically-excellent Marco Estrada tomorrow night but he’s been struggling as of late, pitching to a 12.08 ERA while giving up four home runs over his past three starts. Estrada has had his share of memorable outings against Texas but it’s most certainly a case of poor timing as they come in on a home run binge. Marcus Stroman will close the series and is coming off a disappointing outing in which he gave up three long balls to the White Sox, though that seems far more a blip on the radar than anything else.</p>
<p>Of course, all that power comes at a cost. The Rangers rank 25th in MLB in terms of both total strikeouts and strikeout rate, with 612 K’s accounting for 24.3% of their plate appearances. For reference, the Jays are 20th and 17th respectively with 525 strikeouts and a strikeout rate of 20.9%. It’s been even higher over the past two weeks as the Rangers are the worst in the league with a K rate of 27.3%. Texas isn’t even swinging wildly &#8211; their problem is actually connecting with the ball. The Rangers are dead last in contact percentage over the last two weeks and just 29th over the whole season, so they’re prone to whiffs. While strikeouts are always nice, it’s hard to imagine a better time for Estrada, Stroman, Francisco Liriano and Joe Biagini to bring their best swing-and-miss stuff to Arlington.</p>
<h3><strong>T</strong><strong>he Return of Tyson Ross</strong></h3>
<p>The Blue Jays return to Texas this week to face a Rangers team that is currently dealing with some major injuries to their rotation. Cole Hamels will be making his final rehab start this week recovering from an oblique injury, Andrew Cashner was just placed on the disabled list with an injured oblique of his own, and A.J. Griffin is still healing from an intercostal strain suffered during the Rangers’ trip to Toronto. Looking to fill some holes in their rotation, Texas is turning to a pitcher who is no stranger to the disabled list himself &#8211; former Padres ace Tyson Ross.</p>
<p>Ross was signed to an incentive-laden $6 million contract this offseason after pitching only 5 1/3 innings with the Padres in 2016. Before his shoulder troubles last year, the right-hander was putting up dominant numbers with San Diego, recording an ERA of 3.07 over 516.2 innings pitched from 2013 through 2015. After missing 2016, Ross underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in October. He made his first start of the season on Friday against the Mariners, where he went 5.2 innings, giving up two runs while striking out five and walking three.</p>
<p>It would be unwise to read too deeply into his stats from one start, but it is noteworthy that his fastball velocity against the Mariners sat at 89.5 mph, down significantly from his career average of 93.1 mph. If this trend continues, the former high-strikeout pitcher may have trouble getting balls past the Blue Jays on Wednesday. Furthermore, Ross has now moved from the spacious Petco Park to the hitter-friendly confines of Globe Life Park, which could inhibit his once-stellar ability to limit homers. There are many question marks surrounding Tyson Ross going into his start against the Blue Jays, meaning it will be worthwhile keeping an eye on how he performs.</p>
<h3>No More Dyson Sucking the Place Up</h3>
<p>Last year’s Rangers closer, and the anti-hero of the 2015 ALCS, Sam Dyson, has packed his bags and headed for San Francisco. It’s a shame, really, since just about every opponent he faced this year in the AL pounded his pitches relentlessly. Dyson’s ERA of 10.80 and WHIP of 2.5 were numbers you could really sink your teeth into. Time to meet (or get reacquainted with) the new closer on the lock: Matt Bush.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Yes, the Rangers replaced the man who blamed his failure in the playoffs on a bat flip with the guy who threw a baseball at Jose Bautista seven months later to prove that… I don’t know. I’m not thinking Matt Bush proved anything by drilling Jose with a pitch, other than the fact that a pitcher can </span><a href="http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-rangers-blue-jays-brawl-odor-bautista-matt-bush-20160517-story.html"><span style="font-weight: 400">get away with doing</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> that and not get suspended.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Come the ninth inning, if the Rangers have a slim lead, the Blue Jays will be facing living proof that you can be a horrible person and still keep an MLB job. All you have to do is throw 100mph. Bush was arrested in 2004, 2009, and 2012. In that time he was cast off by the Padres, Blue Jays (!) and Tampa Bay Rays (who had <a href="https://thenervousbreakdown.com/cpowell/2011/04/the-josh-lueke-rape-the-moral-placebo-and-the-sad-seattle-sports-scene/" target="_blank">rapist Josh Lueke</a> on their roster when he was useful to them). In 2012 Bush </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Bush_(baseball)#Criminality_and_incarceration"><span style="font-weight: 400">finally did jail time</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> for one of his DUI/assault related incidents, sentenced to 51 months in prison. He was released in 2015, and having “paid his debt to society” was again available as a free agent. And of course, since he was still throwing a baseball as hard as ever, an MLB team eventually gave him a contract.</span></p>
<p>He has the right to work, and baseball is as far as I can see the only employment Matt Bush has ever had, so it makes sense for him to make as much out of it as he can. He regularly tops out over 100mph with his fastball, and even in a mix of hard throwing modern pitchers, that&#8217;s hard to find. Even his relatively low mileage arm won’t last forever. Still, if I were a Rangers fan, I’d be embarrassed to cheer for Matt Bush in a late and close situation. But cheer they will. Since taking the reins of the ninth inning this year, Bush has 11 strikeouts and four walks in 13 innings with only one blown save and having taken one loss.  He has also allowed three home runs. Opponents are hitting .269/.321/.481 off of him as a group, which is really not that great. Contrast that with Roberto Osuna’s .196/.210/.299 line if you’re wondering what an elite closer looks like.</p>
<p>So, bad news, Matt “F@#$ing” Bush is closing games for the Rangers. Good news, the Jays might just make him look like Sam Dyson if they get the chance.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Searching for Hope: Recent Improbable Playoff Teams</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/01/searching-for-hope-recent-improbable-playoff-teams/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 May 2017 10:49:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[With the first month of the season wrapping itself up Sunday afternoon, the Blue Jays find themselves winners of their past two games. From what I&#8217;ve been told, this phenomenon is known as a winning streak, something that Toronto is experiencing for the first time in its 2017 iteration. Their inability to string any wins together has [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the first month of the season wrapping itself up Sunday afternoon, the Blue Jays find themselves winners of their past two games. From what I&#8217;ve been told, this phenomenon is known as a winning streak, something that Toronto is experiencing for the first time in its 2017 iteration. Their inability to string any wins together has put their current record at 8-17, dead last in the AL East. Even if this team were to turn it around and play the rest of their games at their expected talent level, they would still most likely fall short of the playoffs due to their abysmal start. Combine this with the injuries that the team has suffered in the first month of the season, and optimism has clearly faded for the back-to-back AL finalists.</p>
<p>However, not all hope is lost. The month of May has just begun, and even at who-knows-how-many-at-this-point games back of the division lead, the Jays have 137 games to make an improbable run to the playoffs. According to the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/index_final.php?year_id=2017&amp;dispgroup=div&amp;submit=Go">Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus</a>, the low point of the Blue Jays season occurred after Friday night&#8217;s game. After blowing a 3-1 lead, resulting in Toronto&#8217;s third loss in a row, their odds of reaching the postseason sat at a very low 6.3%. While it will be a long and arduous climb, it one that has been done before. Today, we&#8217;re going to look at the five teams since the addition of the second wild card in 2013 to make the most improbable runs to the playoffs &#8211; teams whose odds of reaching the postseason all fell below 10% at some point during the season.</p>
<h4><strong>2013 Dodgers &#8211; 7.4%</strong></h4>
<p>The 2013 Dodgers began play with sky high expectations, much like those that followed the frenzied offseason of the AL East &#8220;champions-to-be&#8221; Toronto Blue Jays. A blockbuster trade the previous August saw the Dodgers acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez to play alongside stars Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. They already had the best pitcher in the game in Clayton Kershaw, and signed top hurlers Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu to long-term contracts during the offseason to make the rotation one of the best in baseball.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Dodgers, not only were their expectations similar to those of the 2013 Blue Jays, their early season play brought similarly disappointing results. The team struggled out of the gate, breaking even in April with a 13-13 record before playing at a 10-17 clip in May. Injuries ravaged the team, as they lost Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, and Greinke to varying ailments early in the year. The low point of the Dodgers’ season came on June 21, when the team sat with a record of 30-42 – nine and a half games back of the first-place Diamondbacks. This equated to playoff odds of 7.4%, a staggering drop from the 75.3% odds they possessed prior to the start of the season. Manager Don Mattingly was rumoured to be on the hot seat, leading a sure-fire playoff team to last place near the midway point of the season.</p>
<p>Something clicked after that 5-2 loss to the Padres on June 21, however. From June 22 through the end of the year, the Dodgers went 62-28, earning a win percentage of .689 and playing at a 112-win pace over 90 games. This logic-defying run began with a six game winning streak, and followed with several more of varying lengths, highlighted by a 10-game streak capped on August 17. Led by Kershaw, Ramirez, and rookie sensation Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers didn’t lose more than two games in a row again until September 7, and became the first team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot on September 19. They continued their momentum through the first round of the playoffs, beating the Atlanta Braves in the Division Series before falling to the Cardinals in the NLCS.</p>
<h4><strong>2014 Pirates &#8211; 5.9%</strong></h4>
<p>The Pirates won 94 games in 2013, and returned to action in 2014 with largely the same squad. The 2013 Pirates were led by the play of NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, helped by a supporting cast that featured up-and-comers Gerrit Cole and Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates were also aided by successful pitching reclamation projects of familiar names to Blue Jays fans – starters A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano, and closer Jason Grilli. All three pitchers experienced comebacks from injury or poor play in recent seasons, helped in part by the influence of backstop Russell Martin and pitching coach Ray Searage. All of these players (with the exception of Burnett) returned to the Pirates in 2014, ready to take another run at the playoffs one year removed from their first in 21 seasons.</p>
<p>After a demoralizing 11-10 loss in 13 innings on May 5 (a game in which they led 8-2), the Pirates were in fourth place in the NL Central with a 12-20 record. This put them nine and a half games back of the division lead and five and a half back of the second wild card, their playoff odds dropping from 21.1% on Opening Day to a measly 5.9%. The Pirates eventually climbed back into postseason contention, but it was not an immediate turnaround.  They rattled off a four game winning streak beginning on May 6, but then followed that by losing five of their next six.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Pittsburgh began to gain footing in the NL Wild Card race. By August 12, they had played to a 52-35 record since May 5, a 97-win pace. This stretch placed them in the first wild card spot, one and a half games ahead of the Cardinals and Giants. After a three-week bump in the road that saw the Pirates drop to two games back of the second wild card, they finished off the season 17-6, tying the San Francisco Giants and securing a spot in the wild card game. Comeback aside, this would be the end of the road for the Pirates, who fell as the first victims of Madison Bumgarner’s historic 2014 playoff performance.</p>
<h4><strong>2014 Royals &#8211; 6.8%</strong></h4>
<p>Another casualty of Bumgarner’s ridiculous playoff run in 2014, the Kansas City Royals, came into 2014 with playoff aspirations. Owners of the longest active postseason drought in North American professional sports at 28 years, Kansas City had just played to its first winning season since 2003. The young core of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, and Alex Gordon was gaining experience, complemented by staff ace James Shields and a sterling bullpen who finished 2013 with the lowest ERA in the AL.</p>
<p>The Royals started off the season well enough, earning a record of 14-11 in the month of April. The month of May did not serve manager Ned Yost and the Royals as well. On May 29, Kansas City headed into a series at the Rogers Centre 24-28, good for fourth place in the AL Central and four games back of the second Wild Card spot. While not a massive deficit, six different teams stood in the way of the Royals&#8217; postseason climb, bringing their playoff odds from a mark of 23.6% on Opening Day down to 6.8%.</p>
<p>The Royals’ misfortune turned around quickly – after the Toronto series, they went on to win 13 of their next 15 games, quickly vaulting themselves to the top of the AL Central. How would the masters of small ball follow up this impressive streak, you might ask? Well, they stumbled to a 9-18 run, finding themselves once again four and a half back of the second Wild Card on July 21.</p>
<p>This up and down season had not made its final swing, however, as the Royals played the remaining 64 games at a 104-win pace. They finished the year with 89 wins and home field advantage in what became one of the greatest wild card games ever played &#8211; a 9-8, 12-inning thriller against the Josh Donaldson-led Oakland Athletics. The Royals emerged victorious, and continued their magical turnaround season all the way to game seven of the World Series, where it finished with the tying run stuck on third base.</p>
<h4><strong>2015 Rangers &#8211; 4.1%</strong></h4>
<p>For a new generation of Blue Jays fans, the 2015 ALDS against the Rangers was the first glimpse of playoff baseball in Toronto. Exciting as it was, the match up was dangerously close to not coming to fruition, as both teams overcame odds of 10.8% or less to make playoffs. While this is as low as it got for Toronto, things were looking even worse for the Texas Rangers on several occasions during the 2015 season.</p>
<p>After putting up a dreadful 67-95 record in 2014, the Rangers looked to be in for a re-tooling season in 2015. The year started with little improvement, as the Rangers struggled to a 7-14 record in the month of April. The team continued to slump through May 19, at which point they went on a surprising 20-7 run. On June 17, the Rangers found themselves 36-30 and within two and a half games of the AL West-leading Astros.</p>
<p>The Rangers roster that went on this run could not sustain this performance, and from June 18 through July 20, the Rangers went on a 7-18 stretch, dropping them nine games back of the division lead. Their playoff odds dropped to 4.1%, essentially taking them out of the playoff race with a roster that didn’t look to be able to contend. Given the lead they had to overcome to make the playoffs, the Rangers then made a move to help build for next year – a move that ended up saving their 2015 season.</p>
<p>On July 29, the Rangers acquired Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman from the Phillies for several prospects. Two days later, the team picked up Sam Dyson from the Marlins in a low-profile move. These two deals helped set the table for the most improbable playoff run since the birth of the second wild card. After the Hamels trade, the Rangers finished the year 39-22, a 104-win pace, to finish the year at 88-74 with the AL West crown.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Throwback to the <a href="https://twitter.com/Rangers">@Rangers</a> clinching a playoff spot!!!! <a href="https://t.co/GD1YpzePHe">pic.twitter.com/GD1YpzePHe</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Died Wob™ (@Zherdev_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Zherdev_/status/731973728389730304">May 15, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Not much else needs to be added about how their season ended.</p>
<h4><strong>2016 Mets &#8211; 7.6%</strong></h4>
<p>Coming off a run to the World Series in 2015, the Mets entered 2016 with hopes of taking the final step. They re-signed 2015 cult hero Yoenis Cespedes for the upcoming season, and returned with one of the most intimidating and promising young rotations of recent memory. The NL East was seen to be as a two-horse race, with the only question being whether it would be the Washington Nationals taking home the division title, or the Mets defending their crown. The start of the season went according to plan, as the Mets got out to a 20-11 start. This put them a half game ahead of the Nationals, and helped New York to a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs.</p>
<p>Then, the injuries hit. Through late April and May, the Mets lost Travis d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, Lucas Duda, and David Wright, all in the range of one month to the entire season. Before long, the injury plague began to take victims of the rotation as well – Matt Harvey was gone for the season in July, and Steven Matz went on the DL for the remainder of the season in August. These injuries, in combination with general bad play, led the Mets to a 40-51 stretch.</p>
<p>By August 19, the Mets record had dropped to 60-62, firmly leaving them out of the NL East picture at 12.5 games behind the Nationals. They were also five and a half games back of the second wild card, and with three teams to pass, saw their odds of reaching the playoffs drop by a whopping 82.5%, down to 7.6%. There’s a reason the 2016 Mets made this list, however – a season-defining stretch of baseball was still in the works. The Mets finished the season on a 27-13 run, a pace that would have netted them 109 wins over a full year of baseball. Finishing the year at 87-75, their season ended (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) with a dominating performance from Madison Bumgarner, who shutout the Mets in a 1-0 Giants win in the NL Wild Card Game.</p>
<h4>2017 Blue Jays</h4>
<p>To recap, five teams have made the playoffs since 2013 with postseason odds of 7.6% or less at one point in the season. This is not to suggest that a playoff appearance in 2017 is bound to happen for Toronto, as you would find more teams who have missed the playoffs in these situations than those who have reached them. The presence of these comeback stories also does not diminish the fact that the Blue Jays have had a terrible start.</p>
<p>Yet, the dream could still be alive. Teams have been worse off and still made the playoffs.This is the nature of baseball, a sport defined by its randomness and improbability. While this aspect of baseball can be maddening, it is also the reason why we continue to tune in every night. We don&#8217;t want to miss out on an incredible comeback story, and to participate in a season that many have proclaimed over to potentially turn into something noteworthy. And if they&#8217;re lucky enough, the Blue Jays just might do it.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Donaldson&#8217;s Bold Move Pays Off for Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/10/donaldsons-bold-move-pays-off-for-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Oct 2016 16:02:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO – Ballsy. Reckless. Bold. Aggressive. Call it whatever you want, but Josh Donaldson’s decision to round third and attempt to score on a ball in the dirt that was laying at the feet of Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland was certainly not your run of the mill play. As Donaldson laid out, doing [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO – Ballsy. Reckless. Bold. Aggressive.</p>
<p>Call it whatever you want, but Josh Donaldson’s decision to round third and attempt to score on a ball in the dirt that was laying at the feet of Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland was certainly not your run of the mill play.</p>
<p>As Donaldson laid out, doing his best Superman impression, he touched the corner of home plate with his outstretched left hand to score the decisive run and win the ALDS for the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>“That’s a baseball player man,” Kevin Pillar said after the game as he and his teammates celebrated the Jays’ 7-6 walk-off win in Game Three of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers. “He’s got great instincts. Everyone wants to talk about what he’s able to do with his bat, or what he’s able to do with his glove, but what makes him an MVP type of player is his ability to run the bases.</p>
<p>“That’s a guy whose playing banged up. Probably not at 100 percent, but his instincts took over and he wanted it more than they did. That’s a play where someone can’t tell you to go, you just got to go on your own and he reacted, and boy it worked out.”</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Everyone wants to talk about what he’s able to do with his bat, or what he’s able to do with his glove, but what makes him an MVP type of player is his ability to run the bases.&#8221; &#8211; Pillar</p></blockquote>
<p>That it certainly did, as the Jays won the game on what was arguably the boldest baserunning decision in franchise history. When Donaldson broke for home, the Rogers Centre crowd held their breath as the play unfolded. Even last year’s MVP wasn’t sure he was going to make it home safely.</p>
<p>“That situation in the game, if he ends up throwing me out, making a great play you kind of have to tip your cap to him,” Donaldson said. “But I’m banking on the fact that I’m going to make it more times than not.&#8221;</p>
<p>While Donaldson was <i>relatively</i> sure his gamble was going to pay off, Michael Saunders was certain the game was over then and there.</p>
<p>“His instincts are off the charts. I had no doubt that he was scoring,” Saunders said. “When he makes up his mind on the base path it’s usually the right decision. He was aggressive. He understood the way the game was going that we needed to take our chances. The guy is an MVP for a reason.”</p>
<p>What may be more surprising than Donaldson’s decision to break for home in that situation was the fact that it’s no secret he’s nursing an assortment of ailments, some of which certainly affected his swing during a September where he hit .232 and only managed three home runs, but the 30-year-old looked awfully spry as he bolted for home.</p>
<p>“When you have 50,000 fans screaming it kind of numbs the pain a little,” Donaldson said. “It gives you that little extra jolt of adrenalin.”</p>
<blockquote><p>“When you have 50,000 fans screaming it kind of numbs the pain a little.&#8221; &#8211; Donaldson</p></blockquote>
<p>While the end result was what the Jays hoped for, the game itself wasn’t perfect. Few things in life are.</p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez struggled with his command all game &#8211; allowing six earned runs in his first postseason start, Kevin Pillar just barely missed a diving catch to end all diving catches that gave the Rangers a brief lead in the sixth, and the Jays only had two hits with runners in scoring position, scoring two of their seven runs on a wild pitch and an error.</p>
<p>That no longer matters. What matters at this time of year is simply the end result and that’s what the Jays are focused on.</p>
<p>“In the playoffs it’s all about getting wins,” Pillar said. “We just executed better and that’s what it comes down to in the postseason. We just played better baseball. We executed better.</p>
<p>“We’re going to enjoy the rest. It’s a long season. A lot of us are beat up. A lot of us are hanging on by threads. We’re going to enjoy the couple days off and take care of our bodies and we’ll be ready to go.”</p>
<p>Thanks to Donaldson’s bold baserunning decision the Jays get four days off before returning Friday for Game 1 of the ALCS against the winner of the Boston/Cleveland series &#8211; something that’s critical for the team at this time of year with so many bodies hurting.</p>
<p>“It’s been a long year. The extra days off will definitely benefit us as a team, I can tell you that,” Saunders said. “We’re just going to keep this momentum going. We’re going to enjoy some days off and come back ready to go.”</p>
<p>When they do come back the Jays will be looking for their seventh-straight victory, which would tie the club’s best mark of the season. Those types of streaks are awfully rare this time of year, but Toronto might be playing its best baseball at the most critical time.</p>
<p>Pillar talked before the Wild Card game about team’s who win that game tend to “ride that wave” of momentum into their next series. Thanks to Donaldson and company the Jays are still riding that wave and will look to continue to do so when the ALCS starts.</p>
<p>Friday. Be there.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>ALDS Game 3 Recap: Blue Jays 7, Rangers 6; Tonight We Feast</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/09/alds-game-3-recap-blue-jays-7-rangers-6-tonight-we-feast/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Oct 2016 03:30:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7349</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez was on the mound for Toronto. Colby Lewis for Texas. It wasn&#8217;t supposed to be a fair fight. Yet, it took extra innings for the Blue Jays to dispatch the Rangers in the third and final game of the ALDS. There were some tense moments and high drama but the Blue Jays worked [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Aaron Sanchez was on the mound for Toronto. Colby Lewis for Texas. It wasn&#8217;t supposed to be a fair fight.</p>
<p>Yet, it took extra innings for the Blue Jays to dispatch the Rangers in the third and final game of the ALDS. There were some tense moments and high drama but the Blue Jays worked around Sanchez&#8217;s struggles and handed things over to the big bats, who combined to score the winning run in the bottom of the tenth. The Toronto Blue Jays are going to the ALCS. The Texas Rangers are going home.</p>
<p>Texas took their first lead of the series without the benefit of a hit thanks to a leadoff walk to Carlos Gomez, a steal and two groundouts. The Rangers, desperate for something good, hoped to give themselves even a brief respite from the Toronto onslaught that dominated the first two games of this series. The lead was a sign of something positive finally breaking Texas&#8217; way and they turned to Colby Lewis in need of a shutdown inning. Even a one run lead headed into the second would present some forward momentum for the beleaguered Rangers.</p>
<p>Lewis made that lead last for all of 12 pitches. Ezequiel Carrera punched a leadoff single up the middle before Edwin Encarnacion delivered another moonshot into the second deck to give the Jays a 2-1 lead. Russell Martin finally got off the schneid two batters later, knocking a home run into the home bullpen for his first hit of the postseason and Toronto&#8217;s third run of the inning. The bullpen phone was ringing before Lewis recorded three outs.</p>
<p>After a quiet second inning, Elvis Andrus connected for Texas&#8217; first homer of the postseason, putting a nice swing on a pretty good Sanchez heater and scorching it over the wall. The Rangers entered the bottom of the third with the deficit down to one and some positive vibes if not signs of life.</p>
<p>Much like the first inning, Toronto responded quickly. Carrera collected another hit and stole second as Josh Donaldson curiously tried to lay down two bunts. He was swinging on the third pitch, slicing a high fly just fair down the right field line that bounced over the wall for a ground rule double. With four runs in and no outs in the third inning, Jeff Bannister went into the bullpen and Tony Barnette emerged from right field. Barnette, making his third appearance of the ALDS, avoided major damage on two healthy cuts from Encarnacion but conceded a single into center field that cashed in the reigning MVP.</p>
<p>Sanchez continued to struggle with his command, issuing a leadoff walk to Carlos Beltran and giving up a two run homer to Rougned Odor two batters later. Sanchez walked Mitch Moreland later in the frame but would exit the fourth with a five to four lead intact. The Blue Jays failed to continue the &#8220;call and response&#8221; pattern of the game&#8217;s early innings and couldn&#8217;t get anything out of a leadoff walk to Michael Saunders. Sanchez popped out of the dugout with tensions high in need of a quick inning and Joe Biagini loosening in the bullpen. The fireballer responded with three strikeouts and a little emotion to close the top of the fifth.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays got two runners on in the bottom half of the inning but former Blue Jays reliever Jeremy Jeffress coaxed a ground ball double play from Bautista to end the threat. Sanchez started the sixth with Brett Cecil warming in the bullpen behind him. The young righty picked up two quick outs before walking Odor and giving up a single to Jonathan Lucroy. That was enough for Gibbons to remove his starter and bring in Joe Biagini to take on lefty Mitch Moreland. Gibbons opted for Biagini vs. Moreland over Cecil vs. presumed pinch hitter Ryan Rua in a move that also preserved his lefty reliever for future at bats against Beltran and Odor.</p>
<p>It didn&#8217;t work, as Moreland cranked a double into the left-center gap just off the glove of a diving Kevin Pillar. Both runners came around to score on the play, closing the book on Sanchez and restoring a Texas lead.</p>
<p>All in all it wasn&#8217;t a particularly good start from Sanchez, who struggled mightily with command in his first career postseason start. His four free passes on the night led to three of the six runs scored and he allowed Texas to chip away at healthy leads on multiple occasions. To his credit, the fifth inning was a much needed shutdown frame and he struck out five but the Jays are surely disappointed by the evening&#8217;s performance from their ace. Five and two thirds innings with just three hits but four walks and six runs.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays tried their damndest to get the lead right back. Troy Tulowitzki singled to right, prompting Bannister to call on lefty Jake Diekman out of the bullpen. Gibbons countered by replacing Saunders with Melvin Upton Jr., who delivered with a first pitch double. Tulowitzki had a shot at scoring when Gomez bobbled the ball in the corner but was held up by third base coach Luis Rivera. With two runners in scoring position and one out, Kevin Pillar was intentionally walked to set up the double play with Darwin Barney at bat. Bannister plucked hard-throwing Keone Kela to take on the fill-in second baseman in a huge spot.</p>
<p>Kela overpowered Barney with three fastballs before inducing a popup to Adrian Beltre in foul ground. Ezeqiuel Carrera stepped to the dish looking to stay hot in one of the highest-leverage spots of the year. But Carrera needn&#8217;t even swing the stick, as a passed ball to open the at-bat brought Tulowitzki home from third and knotted the game at six. Carrera connected on the next pitch, sending a ball into the right field corner that looked good off the bat. Nomar Mazara ran it down, robbing two bases and two huge RBI from Zeke and the Jays.</p>
<p>Biagini and Kela worked clean sevenths and Jason Grilli came on for the eighth. The wily veteran got a first pitch pop up from Beltran and struck out Beltre on three pitches. Grilli&#8217;s four pitch night came against some tough batters but Gibbons didn&#8217;t dare risk leaving him in to face a second lefty. Brett Cecil came in and did the job, getting a pop up to the middle of the diamond. Matt Bush entered for Texas and struck out the side on just 13 pitches, preserving the tie and pushing the game into the ninth inning.</p>
<p>Enter Roberto Osuna. The closer, amidst discussion over whether or not he&#8217;s being overworked, took the bump and made quick work of Texas&#8217; hitters. Bush stayed in and did the same, sending the game to extra innings. Gibbons, rather than turn to Scott Feldman and the Bisons, sent Osuna back out for another inning of work. Fresh off some kind of cupping treatment, Osuna retired three more with two strikeouts to set the stage for Toronto&#8217;s biggest boppers.</p>
<p>They delivered off Matt Bush in his third inning of work. Donaldson&#8217;s third hit of the night was a leadoff double and was followed by an intentional walk to Encarnacion. Bautista struck out on a full count and Russell Martin poked a ground ball to Elvis Andrus at short. Andrus fielded the ball and tossed to Odor at second for the first out and it looked like the old double play monster would rear its ugly head. It wasn&#8217;t to be, as Public Enemy #1 and centerpiece of the series, Odor, threw a ball in the dirt that Moreland couldn&#8217;t pick at first.</p>
<p>Josh Donaldson- the reigning MVP, the Bringer of Rain, the hobbled heartbeat of the Toronto Blue Jays- never stopped running. He crossed home plate on an error charged to Rougned Odor and the Blue Jays are on to the ALCS.</p>
<h4>One Time</h4>
<p>One time for Josh Donaldson. This was an unbelievable performance that built on his Toronto legacy. Donaldson had three hits, drove in a run, scored the game winner on a tremendous aggressive read and made a pair of fantastic defensive plays. For all the talk of Toronto&#8217;s thunder, Donaldson won this game without leaving the yard. Josh Donaldson is a Toronto Blue Jay.</p>
<h4>Two Times</h4>
<p>Two times for Ezequiel Carrera. Zeke stayed hot, getting two more hits, a stolen base and a pair of runs in addition to a hard hit ball that would&#8217;ve fallen for a two RBI double against a lesser outfielder. Zeke&#8217;s perfectly timed hot streak contributed a ton to the Blue Jays efforts this series, and he will hopefully continue them over the rest of the month.</p>
<h4>Three Times</h4>
<p>Three times for the bullpen. Joe Biagini allowed two inherited runners to score but very nearly got out of the jam. Truthfully, and it may speak to how fortunate we are, many likely assumed that Pillar would run down that double in left center. Jason Grilli, Brett Cecil and Roberto Osuna all turned in fabulous performances without the safety net of Francisco Liriano and will get some well-deserved rest. Osuna in particular was marvelous, carving through Texas hitters with no troublesome contact. For all the guff they caught at the end of the season, the bullpen has been lights out in the playoffs.</p>
<h4>What&#8217;s Next</h4>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays now wait with packed bags for some resolution in the Cleveland vs. Boston series. The rest days they&#8217;ll get from completing the sweep could pay off huge, as the nicked and bruised among them should get some time to relax following tonight&#8217;s champagne celebration.</p>
<p>For the second year in a row, the Texas Rangers will be sent packing with a long flight out of Pearson International and a laundry list of questions. The Rangers now have nothing to show for the second best regular season in franchise history aside from the memories of a right hand that was thrown in frustration following 2015&#8217;s embarrassing playoff departure. Some spoke warily of a potential comeback similar to the one Toronto delivered last season, but that narrative was whipped into the dirt in front of Moreland&#8217;s outstretched glove.</p>
<p>Some knockouts are better than others. Happy Thanksgiving.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Rangers vs. Blue Jays: ALDS Game Three Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/09/rangers-vs-blue-jays-alds-game-three-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 09 Oct 2016 16:21:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7324</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Sunday, October 9, 2016 Written by Greg Wisniewski and Dave Church Welcome to the driver&#8217;s seat, Blue Jays fans! The only thing better than a 2-0 lead is winning the third game, and the matchup favours the Jays. In spite of some injury concerns, Toronto sends a better starting [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Sunday, October 9, 2016</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/gregwisniewski/">Greg Wisniewski</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/davidchurch/">Dave Church</a></em></p>
<p>Welcome to the driver&#8217;s seat, Blue Jays fans! The only thing better than a 2-0 lead is winning the third game, and the matchup favours the Jays. In spite of some injury concerns, Toronto sends a better starting pitcher to the mound, with a better lineup supporting him, and they do it at home. There was talk that nobody wanted to face the Blue Jays if they made it out of the Wild Card game, and it certainly looks like they have caught Texas flat footed as they bashed their way through the first two games of the series.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>September 9 – 7:30 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong></p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez is a strange beast. &#8220;Beast&#8221; is used here as a compliment, and to be honest, &#8220;strange&#8221; is kind of a compliment as well. Sanchez led the American League in ERA this year. His first full year as a starter. Recently David Price, Anibal Sanchez, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke did that same thing. It&#8217;s not something that happens by accident. Often those pitchers do so with a vicious combination of hard throwing, command, and deceptive secondary stuff. Aaron Sanchez does it with fastballs. He threw a fastball for 74.3% of his pitches during the regular season. How odd is that? Well, there is one pitcher who throws more fastballs, Bartolo Colon. Bartolo tosses them in there at 87.9 mph, and paints the edges of the zone all the time. Sanchez fires bullets at 94.7, and wants pitchers to try to hit his, as they usuall do not get hit hard, or in the air. Coincidentally, 88 mph is the speed at which Sanchez delivers his changeup. Aaron Sanchez trusts his fastball, more than any other young pitcher in baseball. Noah Syndergaard, who tops out over 100 mph more than any other starter in baseball, throws a fastball a scant 59% of the time. Sanchez will mix in the change, as mentioned, and a very good curveball. That&#8217;s to keep hitters on the defensive, but if he&#8217;s cruising, expect Russell Martin to keep on putting one finger down.</p>
<p>The biggest weakness for Sanchez, and it certainly isn&#8217;t the end of the world, is that lefties hit for more power against him than right handers do. Rougned Odor is both left handed, and the regular season home run leader (33) for the Rangers. Expect Sanchez to avoid challenging him with runners on. Also expect to see Mitch Moreland, Shin Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran, and possibly 21 year old rookie Nomar Mazara lined up to take their cuts against him.</p>
<p><strong>Colby Lewis</strong></p>
<p>You may remember Colby Lewis from <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX201510120.shtml" target="_blank">last year&#8217;s ALDS</a>, when he relieved Derek Holland in the third inning and failed to &#8220;put out the fire&#8221;, allowing two inherited runners to score, plus one of his own. Lewis is a big step down in overall talent from Hamels and Darvish, but he isn&#8217;t an 11 year MLB veteran by accident. He&#8217;s an extremve flyball pitcher (35%GB rate), and doesn&#8217;t strike many guys out (5.65/9). Still, his first half ERA was a tidy 3.21. The Jays had trouble with him, seeing him go seven strong innings each time they faced him. This was, of course before he strained his lat. Lewis didn&#8217;t pitch in the majors between June 22 and Sept 10, and when he returned he was not able to replicate the early season results. At all. A walk every other inning, and a Hr/9 of 2.95 (!) with lead to a 6.38 ERA pretty quickly. Was Lewis just &#8216;shaking off the rust&#8217;, or is he not really recovered?</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Tulo the Hero</strong></p>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki is quickly cementing a reputation as a post-season hero in Toronto. His 16 RBIs as a Jay are already tied for third in team history with Jose Bautista (no slouch himself). Perhaps batting sixth in the lineup has allowed teams to overlook him, but it would be unwise for the Rangers to do so, given his effectiveness in this series: he&#8217;s 5 for 9 with a triple, a home run, and five RBIs in the first two games. He&#8217;s struggled against Colby Lewis in limited at-bats, going 2 for 11, so his bucking that trend will continue Toronto&#8217;s offensive renaissance in the playoffs.</p>
<p><strong>Passing the Luck</strong></p>
<p>It was probably therapeutic for Jays fans to see the Rangers strand a ton of base runners in the second game of the series, as Texas scored only 3 runs, leaving a whopping 13 on base in the 5-3 loss. Happ and the bullpen were both lucky and good to get out of those jams, and Texas will be in tough against Sanchez, who&#8217;s probably a little tougher on hitters than Happ is. If the Jays can keep giving Texas their &#8220;strand the base runners&#8221; sickness, it&#8217;ll make the task of winning that much easier.</p>
<p><strong>Clipped Wings</strong></p>
<p>The injury to Devon Travis has left the Jays shorthanded in their infield, as Darwin Barney will likely draw the start in his stead at second base. As the Jays have two reserve outfielders in Melvin Upton and Ezequiel Carrera, they&#8217;ll be running a short bench for this game, and any other potential remaining games in this series as they wait for Travis to recover, rather than replace him on the roster and potentially lose a soon-to-be-healthy-starter until the World Series. This limits John Gibbons&#8217; pinch-hitting options in the late innings, as Barney will have to face a tough reliever with the lack of a reseve infielder.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Rangers</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Gomez &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ezequiel Carrera &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Ian Desmond &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Beltran &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Adrian Beltre &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Roughned Odor &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Lucroy &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Shin-Soo Choo &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Mitch Moreland &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Elvis Andrus &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Darwin Barney &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>While Blue Jays fans have every reason to be delighted with how the series has gone so far, they also have every reason to want to wrap this series up quickly. They had Travis and Francisco Liriano hurt in game two, Roberto Osuna coming off a scary moment in the wildcard game, on top of a lot of veterans already battling nagging injuries. Sanchez vs. Lewis might be an enticing matchup for the Jays, but they would do well to not look past this game, and ensure they take care of business quickly. The Jays were down 2-0 travelling to Texas last year when all hope seemed lost, and we all know how that turned out.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Rangers 3; Toronto Holds on to Take 2-0 Series Lead</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/07/recap-blue-jays-5-rangers-3-toronto-holds-on-to-take-2-0-series-lead/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Oct 2016 21:35:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7327</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are heading home with a 2-0 series lead in their ALDS matchup against the Texas Rangers. With a 5-3 win in Game two this afternoon in Arlington, the Jays have put themselves in the best position possible ahead of Game three Sunday night at the Rogers Centre. No one expected this afternoon’s [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are heading home with a 2-0 series lead in their ALDS matchup against the Texas Rangers. With a 5-3 win in Game two this afternoon in Arlington, the Jays have put themselves in the best position possible ahead of Game three Sunday night at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>No one expected this afternoon’s game to be the laugher that Game one turned out to be and it most definitely wasn’t, with the Rangers mounting a late rally that had the Blue Jays use every high leverage reliever at their disposal to lock down the game.</p>
<p>For the second game in a row, the offence that had disappeared for most of September reappeared at Globe Life Park, providing the Jays’ pitching staff with a five run cushion, albeit in the most unexpected of ways. Unless you expected Kevin Pillar and Ezekiel Carrera to go yard off of Texas co-ace Yu Darvish, the former on a pitch that was closer to his eyeballs than it was the strike zone. More predictably, Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion contributed home runs of their own.</p>
<p>Despite not being as dominant as he was throughout the course of the regular season, J.A. Happ was able to limit the Rangers to one run over five plus innings pitched. Happ racked up 84 pitches and surrendered nine hits but consistently worked his way out of jams with runners on to keep the Blue Jays in control before handing the ball over to the bullpen.</p>
<p>The Rangers have become known for mounting late season comebacks this season and as John Gibbons started to dip into his bullpen it looked for a moment as if they may be ready to author another one this afternoon. The Rangers’ propensity for late inning comebacks and the Blue Jays’ sometimes shaky (and currently ailing) bullpen made for a nerve-racking ending to a hardly fought game.</p>
<p>Francisco Liriano, entered the game in the eighth inning with a three-run lead, but after surrendering a leadoff double and walk around an Elvis Andrus fly ball, he was struck in the back of the head/neck. It is unclear exactly where the ball struck the Jays’ lefty, but it was reported by <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottyMacThinks/status/784495142891687937" target="_blank">TSN’s Scott MacArthur</a> that he was taken to a local hospital. Fingers crossed that Liriano is alright and that the move is only precautionary.</p>
<p>The horrific play ended with Rangers on the corners and a 5-3 Blue Jays’ lead. This made John Gibbons call on Roberto Osuna &#8211; who left Tuesday’s Wild Card game with a shoulder issue of his own &#8211; in order to preserve the Blue Jays’ lead.</p>
<p>Osuna was absolutely fantastic and locked things down for a five-out save, throwing 31 pitches in the process.</p>
<p>Other Notes:</p>
<h4>Sportsmanlike Conduct</h4>
<p>One of the more civil exchanges that we’ve witnessed between these two baseball teams occurred in the bottom of the third inning this afternoon at Globe Life Park. When Russell Martin discarded his mask while making a play on a pop up in foul territory, Rougned Odor picked it up and returned Martin his mask after the play. With all of the bad blood, bad fans and stupid behavior that surrounds the Jays/Rangers rivalry, it’s nice to see that these teams and players can indeed be civil with each other.</p>
<h4><strong>Injuries Mounting</strong></h4>
<p>Devon Travis was scratched minutes before the game with what is being described as “right knee irritation”. Roberto Osuna had to come out of the game on Tuesday and Francisco Liriano today. Joaquin Benoit is inactive and Josh Donaldson is likely still battling his hip injury, amongst other things. Thankfully, pitching with a herniated disk in his back seems to be absolutely no problem for Marco Estrada, but in any case, the Blue Jays are battling injuries to many of their key contributors. Hopefully Liriano is okay, and the travel day gives the rest of the ailing Jays an opportunity to rest and recover, as much as they possibly can.</p>
<h4><strong>Controversial Replay Call Goes Toronto’s Way</strong></h4>
<p>Ian Desmond&#8217;s decision to break for home after hesitating momentarily on an Adrian Beltre ground ball with one out in the seventh inning resulted in as close a play as you will ever see. While Desmond may have beat the tag at home (the umpires deemed replay evidence inconclusive), his risky decision cost the Rangers. With the infield back and a four run lead, the Blue Jays were conceding the run. Desmond’s initial hesitation hurt the Rangers and allowed the Blue Jays to sustain their four-run cushion heading into the eighth inning.</p>
<h4><strong>What it Means Going Forward</strong></h4>
<p>Game three of the ALDS goes Sunday night in Toronto, with Aaron Sanchez (15-2, 3.00 ERA) taking on Colby Lewis (6-5, 3.71 ERA). Toronto heads home with a 2-0 stranglehold on the series, but we don’t have to look too far back to see how easily that type of lead can vanish. Anything can happen in a five-game series and don’t be surprised if and when it does.</p>
<p>While it might feel like the right time to start giving it to the Rangers and their fans, the job isn&#8217;t done just yet. The always-wise Tao of Steib reminds us:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There are some boastful witticisms I&#39;d like to share, but I recall that those guys won game 1 last year.</p>
<p>&mdash; Tao of Stieb (@TaoofStieb) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb/status/784191789502701568">October 7, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>It&#8217;s as true today as it was yesterday.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sport</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 10, Rangers 1; Estrada Shines While Texas Falters</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/06/recap-blue-jays-10-rangers-1-estrada-shines-while-texas-falters/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2016 23:41:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As soon as Edwin Encarnacion launched his walk-off home run on Tuesday night, talk in the baseball world shifted to how the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays would react as they revisited their year-old rivalry for at least another three games, possibly for four or five. If their were any concerns that either team  would revert to child [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As soon as Edwin Encarnacion launched his walk-off home run on Tuesday night, talk in the baseball world shifted to how the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays would react as they revisited their year-old rivalry for at least another three games, possibly for four or five. If their were any concerns that either team  would revert to child like antics instead of focusing on the task at hand of winning the baseball game, they were quickly quashed, as both the Rangers and Blue Jays came out to play baseball today, leaving the promotion of violence to <a href="https://twitter.com/Wilnerness590/status/784106083753205760" target="_blank">Rangers fans</a> and their <a href="https://twitter.com/StevensonFWST/status/784127252933980160" target="_blank">young children</a>.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista stepped up to the plate with Josh Donaldson standing at first base and two out in the first inning to a chorus of boos, but he was unable to do any damage, flying out to left fielder Carlos Gomez. The Blue Jays were close to getting in business again in the second inning, as with two outs, Kevin Pillar grounded to shortstop and almost beat the throw by Elvin Andrus, but a challenge by manager John Gibbons was not able to overturn the call on the field.</p>
<p>However, the Blue Jays finally broke through against Cole Hamels in the third inning after putting up some good at-bats against him earlier. Ezequiel Carrera, batting ninth in the lineup today, worked a walk with one out, and moved up to second base on a wild pitch while Josh Donaldson was at the plate. Donaldson then laced a double off of the glove of gold glove winner and future Hall of Fame third baseman Adrian Beltre, making the score 1-0 for Toronto. Not to be outdone, Edwin Encarnacion hit a single off of the glove of pitcher Cole Hamels, putting men on the corners with one out for Texas&#8217; favourite Blue Jay, Jose Bautista. Hamels tried his best, but Bautista won an eight pitch battle against the 2008 NLCS and WS MVP, hitting a line drive single to centre field, scoring Donaldson. Russell Martin then walked to load the bases for Troy Tulowitzki, who effectively ended this game with a three-run triple which increased the Blue Jays&#8217; win probability by 17.4 percentage points. At the end of the inning, half an hour had passed, Hamels threw 42 pitches, and the Blue Jays found themselves leading the Rangers 5-0.</p>
<p>The main story today was on the pitching side of things for the Blue Jays, as Marco Estrada delivered yet another memorable postseason performance. Estrada held the Rangers scoreless through eight innings, until surrendering a lone run in the ninth. Marco&#8217;s signature pop up and weak flyball inducing ability was on display in Arlington, as he was able to retire the Rangers in the air seven times. His fastball &amp; change up mix baffled the Rangers all afternoon long, helping Marco strike out six batters and allow only four hits.</p>
<p>Estrada allowed a leadoff single in the sixth inning, but as he is wont to do, he quickly ended the threat, with some help from his catcher Russ Martin. Elvis Andrus was running on the 3-2 pitch from Estrada, but Shin Soo-Choo flailed at the 77 MPH change up, and Martin gunned it to second base, allowing Devon Travis to make the tag and record the strike &#8216;em out, throw &#8216;em out double play. Estrada followed that up with another strike out, again swinging on a 77 MPH change up, sending Carlos Gomez back to the bench in sadness. The lone Rangers run scored in the ninth on a triple and ground out.</p>
<p>A secondary storyline today was the Rangers playing a fundamentally unsound game of baseball throughout, costing them a shot at victory in the first game of this best-of-five series. Not only did those two balls go off of gloves in the third inning, but on Tulowitzki&#8217;s bases clearing triple, centre fielder Ian Desmond seemed to have lost track of where the fence was, and pulled up early when it looked like he could have made the catch fairly easily. Then in the fourth inning, an errant throw from Elvis Andrus let Devon Travis reach base, and a passed ball from Jonathan Lucroy moved him up one base and helped him score when Josh Donaldson hit a single to centre field. That made the score 7-0 for the good guys, as Melvin Upton Jr. had lead off the inning with a solo home run earlier.</p>
<p>Bautista was not satisfied with a 7-0 victory, so he decided to cash three more by hitting a long home run off of Jake Diekman in the ninth inning following leadoff singles from Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. That brought the score to 10-0, a huge blowout that is hopefully a sign of things to come. Donaldson&#8217;s single was his fourth hit on the night, as he finished 4-4 with a walk, easily putting up the best offensive performance on the team. Supporting him were Bautista&#8217;s two hits and four RBI, Tulowitzki&#8217;s three hits and three RBI, and Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s 1-3 with two walk day.</p>
<p>Tomorrow, the Blue Jays will be back at it in Texas at 1:00 PM EST, hoping to build off of their thrilling-yet-not-stressful game one 10-1 victory. They were able to take the crowd out of it early in this one, so much so that just a couple of hours after they stood up to boo him, by the time the seventh inning rolled around, the Rangers fans couldn&#8217;t be bothered to jeer Bautista when he approached the batter&#8217;s box for his at-bat. Tomorrow, J.A. Happ will look to emulate Estrada, and the bats will attempt to stay hot against Yu Darvish. If it is anything like today&#8217;s game, you will not want to miss it.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Know Your Enemy: A Look at Blue Jay Haters Around the League</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/22/know-your-enemy-a-look-at-blue-jay-haters-around-the-league/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jun 2016 14:22:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darren O'Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Farrell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phil Hughes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Yordano Ventura]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to many people outside of Canada, the Blue Jays are not the most loved team in baseball. It’s starting to feel like every other week someone is spouting off, or throwing at, one of the Jays’ best players. I, like most Blue Jays fans, do not understand all of the hate. While I can [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to many people outside of Canada, the Blue Jays are not the most loved team in baseball. It’s starting to feel like every other week someone is spouting off, or throwing at, one of the Jays’ best players. I, like most Blue Jays fans, do not understand all of the hate. While I can understand that opposing players get frustrated with inflated international cell phone bills, Toronto still seems to be receiving a disproportionate amount of Major League Baseball’s vitriol. Most of the time, Blue Jay hate seems to be rooted in talk of disrespect, playing the game the right way and showing up opponents. But I have a hard time believing that Sam Dyson would throw the same shade at Mickey Mantle that he has at Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>In my opinion, all the criticism is just code for the underlying truth that the Blue Jays are good at baseball and appear to be excited and happy about it &#8211; an ethos that doesn’t sit well with some others around the league. It’s always important to know your enemy, so in case you’ve missed some of the more recent dust ups, here is a recap of current Blue Jay detractors, critics and haters throughout Major League Baseball:</p>
<p><b>Minnesota Twins – Joe Vavra/Phil Hughes</b></p>
<p>One of the more bizarre incidents of on-field feuding this season has to be Josh Donaldson’s clash with the Minnesota Twins. While grounding out in the first inning of a Saturday afternoon game, Donaldson ran down the first base line at a speed that was clocked by stadium radar guns at “not playing the game the right way.” This upset Twins’ bench coach Joe Vavra, who said something inflammatory to JD, laying waste to the reputation of the polite and friendly Midwesterner. The next day, when Donaldson took Twins starter Phil Hughes deep, he glared at Vavra as he crossed home plate. This led Phil Hughes to throw two pitches at Donaldson in the 6<sup>th</sup> inning, without being ejected from the game. After the game, Donaldson explained why both this situation and the Trial By Combat policy that Major League baseball adheres to is so maddeningly frustrating. The Twins dislike of the Blue Jays also proves that you don’t need to hit a franchise altering home run for someone to get irrationally offended. In my opinion, Twins pitchers should be more concerned with hitting 90 miles an hour instead of opposing players.</p>
<p><b>Texas Rangers – Rougned Odor</b></p>
<p>Oddly enough, the only person on this list to publicly declare their respect for Jose Bautista is the one who decided to punch him in the face. It seems as though Odor puts about as much thought into his on field actions as he does into his post game statements, deciding that slugging Bautista in the jaw was an adequate response to a late, but not dangerous, slide into second base &#8211; proving that you can’t spell Ranger without rage. Odor’s attack on Joey Bats, has made him public enemy number one in Toronto and the creator of a cottage industry’s worth of t-shirt and punch related memorabilia in Texas. The most recent chapter in the Jays-Rangers rivalry has anointed Texas as Toronto’s most hated rival and should provide plenty of fodder if the teams do happen to meet in the playoffs again this season.</p>
<p><b>Pete Rose – A Casino Somewhere</b></p>
<p>During last year’s postseason run, Doctor Pete Rose fired <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/10/pete-rose-josh-donaldson-alds-game-1-head-injury-collision-mlb">criticism</a> at Josh Donaldson for leaving Game One of the ALDS after potentially sustaining a concussion; comments that indicated Rose himself may have sustained a serious head injury at some point. While his criticisms of Donaldson as a soft player make it abundantly clear that Rose knows nothing about head injuries or Donaldson’s style of play, Rose should know plenty about staying in games too long – just look at his final season as a player in 1986.</p>
<p><b>Baltimore Orioles &#8211; Darren O’Day</b></p>
<p>The longest standing Blue Jay rivalry is the Orioles/O’Day conflict that dates back to a time so long ago (2013) that Jose Bautista wasn’t even sporting his signature beard when the dispute began. The issues centred on a circular series of brush back pitches, celebrated home runs and outs, and retaliatory beanings between Jose Bautista and Darren O’Day. Blue Jay historians also note that the Bautista/O’Day rivalry marks the first usage of Jose’s now famous catchphrases “you’ll have to ask_____(player/manager/front office member/reporter) about that, not me”, and “I couldn’t care less what ____(opposing player/manager) thinks.&#8221;</p>
<p><b>Mike Wright – Norfolk Tides</b></p>
<p>The newest addition to the list is Mike Wright, the <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Orioles’ rookie</span> Norfolk Tides pitcher who argued that Edwin Encarnacion is a less than stellar hitter, when stating “there’s a reason he’s hitting .240.” This was pronounced despite the fact that Edwin spent that very same Saturday afternoon grinding Wright and the rest of the O’s pitching staff into a fine pulp. With O&#8217;Day on the disabled list, perhaps Wright was trying to fill the antagonism void. Let’s hope for Wright’s sake that Oriole regulars Chris Davis, Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Flaherty, and Pedro Alvarez didn’t hear his disparaging comments about players who hit .240. I also can’t believe Mark Trumbo isn’t on that list.</p>
<p><b>John Farrell – Boston Red Sox</b></p>
<p>When someone breaks up with you, they usually have the tact not to mention they wanted to be with someone else all along. John Farrell didn’t give the Blue Jays and their fans the same courtesy. If leaving because you would rather manage a team with Dustin Pedroia on it wasn’t hard enough to swallow, Farrell made some <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/farrell-jays-approach-one-dimensional/">comments</a> that painted the Blue Jays’ front office in a less than positive light upon leaving. This was the very same front office that let him out of his contract to go and take the job he wanted all along. While most divorces involve the division of furniture, record collections or pets, this one saw the Blue Jays get Mike Aviles in the breakup. Be careful Boston, we wouldn’t want him to hurt you the same way he hurt us.</p>
<p><b>Goose Gossage – Wilton Grove Retirement Community</b></p>
<p>If you heard Gossage’s <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14943065/goose-gossage-rips-jose-bautista-toronto-blue-jays-nerds-ruining-baseball">rant</a> this winter, the one in which he calls Jose Bautista a “f&#8212;ing disgrace,&#8221; you were probably concerned for a man who had wandered away from his seniors tour just long enough to voice his displeasure with how the youths of today are ruining baseball. Jose Bautista knew as much, responding only that he was not going to get into it with him. Gossage was quickly reunited with his tour group and promptly offered a job in the Diamondbacks’ front office under Dave Stewart.</p>
<p><b>Kansas City Royals – Yordano Ventura</b></p>
<p>The stupidest thing about the Jays’ feud with Yordano Ventura is that it was born out of a game that he wasn’t even playing. After the Jays and Royals cleared benches on August 3<sup>rd</sup> of 2015, Ventura sent and then deleted a very critical tweet directed at Jose Bautista. Then, in the ALCS, he got bent out of sorts when Troy Tulowitzki asked for time too close to when Hurricane V wanted to deliver his next pitch. Ventura proceeded to stare Tulo down in little response. <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article82483682.html">This was not Ventura’s first or last altercation</a> with an opposing player or team. There’s an old expression that may be applicable here: If you run into an a—hole in the morning, you run into an a—hole. If you run into a—holes all day, maybe you’re the a—hole? After supposedly apologizing to Bautista about his comments, there have been <a href="http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/6/8/yordano-ventura-openly-talked-about-hitting-jose-bautista-is-an-idiot">reports</a> about his intentions to hit Jose Bautista the next time he faces him; proving that he has learned absolutely nothing.</p>
<p><b>Adam Dunn – Retired Because he Doesn&#8217;t Like Baseball</b></p>
<p>You know, this one just might be on Toronto. Well, General Manager J.P. Ricciardi more specifically. Ricciardi famously called out Adam Dunn for “not even liking baseball all that much” &#8211; the 2008 equivalent of calling someone ‘low energy.&#8217; Dunn responded by calling Ricciardi a clown, hilariously confirming with reporters that they could use the word clown if they liked. Sure, Adam Dunn is built more like Little John than your prototypical baseball player, having what my dad would describe as a ‘big middle,’ but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t care about baseball. Even a staunch Jays’ supporter like me would say J.P. was perhaps a little out of line on this one.</p>
<p>Since the Blue Jays emerged as a playoff and World Series contender over the past two years, the bad blood between Toronto and the rest of baseball has increased substantially. As annoying as it can be to hear yet another example of someone having a mostly made up problem with your favorite team, take solace in the fact that the Jays are good enough to take their revenge by winning games, and (hopefully) not throwing at people.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Rangers 7, Blue Jays 6; Punches Fly in Season Series Finale</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/15/recap-rangers-7-blue-jays-6-punches-fly-in-season-series-finale/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2016 23:28:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2695</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The story coming into Sunday&#8217;s game was pitching. For Toronto, it was the fact that Aaron Sanchez was sporting a sparkling 1.71 ERA over his previous three starts. For the Rangers, it was that they denied the Blue Jays a chance to bash lefty Derek Holland again (they pounded him for 11 runs in 2.2 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The story coming into Sunday&#8217;s game was pitching. For Toronto, it was the fact that Aaron Sanchez was sporting a sparkling 1.71 ERA over his previous three starts. For the Rangers, it was that they denied the Blue Jays a chance to bash lefty Derek Holland again (they pounded him for 11 runs in 2.2 IP on May 5) by starting lefty journeyman Cesar Ramos in his place.</p>
<p>The early part of the game played out according to that presumed narritive, Toronto getting hits but not scoring runs, and in the process driving up the pitch count on Ramos such that he had to leave after four and a third innings with the bases loaded and over 90 pitches under his belt. However, the next Blue Jay at the plate, the scorching hot Justin Smoak, promptly hit into a double play to end the threat. In the middle of the fifth inning, the Jays led the Rangers 7-2 in hits but were tied 1-1.</p>
<p>Sanchez, for his part, had limited the Rangers to just two hits to that point, one of those an RBI double in the 3rd by Ian Desmond. In the bottom of the 5th another RBI double put the Rangers in front 2-1 and Jays fans, myself at least, were already grumbling about the missed opportunity in the top half.</p>
<p>But the shaky Rangers bullpen has proven to be a nice solace for the increasingly-less-anemic Toronto offense. Rookie Andrew Faulkner and veteran Tom Willhelmsen combined to load the bases again in the 6th and Jose Bautista doubled in all three runners to put the Blue Jays out in front. Sanchez labored in the seventh as his pitch count approached 100 and had to leave with two outs and two on clinging to a two run lead. Stop me if you&#8217;ve heard this one before.</p>
<p>Reliever Jesse Chavez hung a fat curve and the Blue Jays were down 7-6 just like that.</p>
<p>Leading off the 8th, Matt Bush was designated to be the guy who plunked Jose Bautista for last year&#8217;s playoff event. Boy did THAT not end well. After both benches were warned, Encarnacion flied out and then on the next play Bautista slid hard through second base on a double play ball. Rangers 2B Rougned Odor got mad, took a punch at Bautista and chaos ensued.</p>
<p>Multiple players were ejected (I don&#8217;t even know where to mention that Tim Lieper and John Gibbons had already been tossed in separate incidents earlier in the game) including DeMarlo Hale and Jesse Chavez being tossed after Chavez plunked Prince Fielder in retaliation for Bautista. From then on the game shambled to an ignominious end and the Blue Jays are left not only with the lingering anger from the fight, but the nasty taste in their mouth of letting yet another game they were in control of end up in the loss column.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>That would be the aforementioned Chavez curve that Desmond pounded over the fence with two outs in the 7th. That put the Rangers ahead 7-6 and increased the Rangers win probability by 52.9 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Justin Smoak double play grounder that left the bases loaded in the fifth inning dropped the Jays win expectancy  by 19.2 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Let the Suspensions and Fines Ensue.</h3>
<p>The lineups and rosters for upcoming games will surely be impacted in a major way by MLB suspensions. Gibbons was back on the field during the brawl and he&#8217;ll get popped for that. Hale and Chavez will take a hit for the revenge HBP. Bautista, Donaldson, and Kevin Pillar all look likely to get a few games off. Certainly Odor will get hit hard for the Rangers (as he should) and possibly others.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki, in the four games leading up to this one, had a 1.456 OPS. Today he went 3/5 with a double. He&#8217;s long overdue to get on track and one can only hope this is not a mirage.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays get back home on Monday to face the lacklustre Tampa Bay Rays who&#8217;ll be without their best hitter. The Toronto squad is now 8-6 in May and the opportunity exists to build up some much needed momentum with a couple of series&#8217; against the Twins and Yankees coming up after the Rays leave town, if they can use this game as a spark and not a distraction.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Rangers 6, Blue Jays 5; Late Rally Goes to Waste</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2016 03:39:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Since 2013, the Blue Jays had won 21 of 29 games against the Texas Rangers, but were on the wrong side of the matchup tonight. The early going saw the Blue Jays baffled once again by Colby Lewis while the Rangers capitalized on Marco Estrada&#8217;s early struggles to set up what looked like an easy [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since 2013, the Blue Jays had won 21 of 29 games against the Texas Rangers, but were on the wrong side of the matchup tonight.</p>
<p>The early going saw the Blue Jays baffled once again by Colby Lewis while the Rangers capitalized on Marco Estrada&#8217;s early struggles to set up what looked like an easy win for the home side on &#8220;Bark in the Park Night&#8221;. The heart of Toronto&#8217;s order had other ideas, with Justin Smoak and Troy Tulowitzki hitting home runs off of Texas closer Shawn Tolleson to knot the score in the 9th and send the game into extras. Unfortunately, the late rally went for naught as Drew Stubbs crushed a Gavin Floyd offering over the left field wall in the bottom of the 10th to end the game.</p>
<p>Estrada had a poor start to the game, and while he felt the squeeze from home plate umpire Lance Barrett, he was ultimately done in by poor fastball command in the first two innings. After loading the bases with nobody out in the first inning, Estrada lost a long battle with Bobby Wilson, who smashed his second home run (and second grand slam) of the season on the 12th pitch of the at-bat. Estrada had walked three batters by the 2nd inning and ended up tying his season high of four free passes in this game.</p>
<p>Credit Estrada for settling down after early issues though, as he only allowed two baserunners after Wilson&#8217;s slam: a walk to Andrus in the 3rd and a Ryan Rua triple in the 6th. All told, Estrada&#8217;s line was 6.0 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 5 H, 5 K, 4BB.</p>
<p>A rested bullpen performed adequately until Stubbs&#8217; walk-off homer. Brett Cecil, Joe Biagini and Gavin Floyd combined for 3.2 innings with the final hit of the night presenting the only real damage.</p>
<p>The Toronto comeback began with a Ryan Goins home run in the 3rd, while Troy Tulowitzki hit a double and was cashed in on an Ezequiel Carrera single in the 6th. In the 9th, Jose Bautista collected a leadoff double before Smoak and Tulowitzki would go back to back, handing Tolleson his 3rd blown save of the young season. The Texas bullpen has also given up an AL-worst 24 home runs in 2016.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays still have yet to win a game in which they surrender four or more runs.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Shockingly, Drew Stubbs&#8217; 10th inning home run was the top WPA play of the game. The walk-off hit increased Texas&#8217; win probability by 46.2% (.462 WPA).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion strode to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the 10th following Jose Bautista&#8217;s second double of the night. Tony Barnette would induce a ground ball to Adrian Beltre to escape the jam. Encarnacion&#8217;s failure to deliver dropped Toronto&#8217;s win probability by 10.6% (-.106 WPA).</p>
<h3>Jose Bautista: Mr. 1000</h3>
<p>Tonight was Jose Bautista&#8217;s 1000th game as a Blue Jays player. He became only the 11th player in history to reach that mark with the team. Bautista will almost surely pass Jesse Barfield (1032) and Joe Carter (1039) before season&#8217;s end, and may surpass Rance Mulliniks and Willie Upshaw (1115) if he can avoid too many rest days.</p>
<p>Bautista has been sensational in Toronto, leaving an undeniable mark on Blue Jays history. Beyond his impressive set of statistics, he claims ownership over one of the most momentous and memorable marks in Toronto sports history. In his milestone game, Bautista kickstarted the 9th inning rally with a leadoff double and notched another double in the 10th thanks to a misplay by Stubbs.</p>
<h3>Late Surge Overshadows Early Outage</h3>
<p>They say &#8220;no man is an island&#8221;, but Marco Estrada remains skeptical at best. This was the first of Estrada&#8217;s seven starts in which Toronto has scored more than three runs. Toronto struggled for the second time in as many weeks to generate offense against light-throwing Colby Lewis. Lewis, the owner of a 6.4 K/9 ratio, managed six K&#8217;s in his seven innings of work with four called strikeouts while Edwin Encarnacion was caught swinging twice.</p>
<p>What&#8217;s more, the Toronto defense let Estrada down tonight. Texas scored their 5th run on a Ryan Rua bloop triple that got past Michael Saunders and Ezequiel Carrera (who was a late addition to the lineup when Kevin Pillar was scratched with chest soreness) followed by a passed ball by the normally sure-handed Russell Martin. Though it all worked out in the end, it would have been nice for Estrada to get some support earlier in the game.</p>
<p>As for the late surge, Troy Tulowitzki is now up to eight dingers on the year, with three of them coming on the current road trip. Perhaps the much maligned shortstop is coming around as the weather warms. With Josh Donaldson in a mini-slump of his own, production from players further down in the order like Tulo and Smoak is a welcome sight.</p>
<p>Additionally, Brett Cecil made his return to the mound, retiring two lefties and surrendering an infield single. After R.A. Dickey&#8217;s strong outing yesterday, John Gibbons had a full complement of relievers available so tonight&#8217;s deployment could give us a good idea of the team&#8217;s bullpen roles going forward. Tonight, Cecil was followed by Joe Biagini, who worked one and a third scoreless innings and has earned a shot at higher leverage work. Gavin Floyd was summoned to work the 9th and 10th rather than closer Roberto Osuna in a move that cost the team tonight.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s puzzling, if unsurprising, that Roberto Osuna would not get the call in the bottom of the 10th. John Gibbons needs to reexamine his strategy concerning the team&#8217;s high leverage relievers as tonight&#8217;s loss comes in part because of suboptimal deployment. In a frustrating season, chalk this one up as another winnable game that slipped through the cracks.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays settle back in at .500 (19-19) and will look to take the series finale tomorrow afternoon. First pitch from Globe Life Park comes at 3:05 ET, as Aaron Sanchez (3-1, 2.58 ERA) will oppose lefty spot-starter Cesar Ramos (0-2, 5.11 ERA).</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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