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	<title>Toronto &#187; Teoscar Hernandez</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration with Ezequiel Carrera; Raise Floor in Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/12/blue-jays-avoid-arbitration-with-ezequiel-carrera-raise-floor-in-outfield/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Jan 2018 14:33:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14903</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Thursday night, the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera on a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. The Blue Jays, a file-and-trial team, have a 1:00 pm ET deadline on Friday by which they must either reach an agreement or exchange figures with all of their arbitration eligible players. After this [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Thursday night, the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera on a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. The Blue Jays, a file-and-trial team, have a 1:00 pm ET deadline on Friday by which they must either reach an agreement or exchange figures with all of their arbitration eligible players. After this deadline the club will only consider multi-year extensions in lieu of seeing the arbitration process through.</p>
<p>The one-year, $1.9 million contract signed by Carrera makes sense in a vacuum, and in fact is exactly what he was <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html">projected to receive</a> by MLB Trade Rumors back in October. The outfielder made $1.2 million when first eligible for arbitration last winter and the $700,000 raise is fair and reflective of his .282/.356/.408 performance in 131 games played in 2017.</p>
<p>Carrera has been worth 1.6 WARP over 827 plate appearances (1.2 WARP/600) across three seasons in Toronto, which cements him in the “good bench player but not someone you should rely upon as a starter” category. What makes this signing slightly unsettling for some Blue Jays fans, however, is that alongside Kevin Pillar and Steve Pearce, Carrera makes three outfielders signed to, or soon to be signed to, major league deals. The outfield still needs help on the top end and this agreement doesn’t preclude a run at the highly sought after Lorenzo Cain, but it could potentially take away opportunities in the short term from a quartet of young outfielders.</p>
<p>For arguments sake, let’s say the Blue Jays sign Lorenzo Cain and he agrees to be the everyday right fielder. With Kevin Pillar’s defensive prowess buying him another season in center, left field falls into the hands of another Pearce and Carrera platoon, with the optionable contracts of Teoscar Hernandez, Dalton Pompey, Dwight Smith, and Anthony Alford all bound for the minor leagues. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.</p>
<p>At this very moment, given that we simply haven’t seen enough consistent performance at the highest level to blindly depend on them, I don’t think anyone would argue that a bit of seasoning in Buffalo or New Hampshire would hurt any of the four. But what if Teoscar Hernandez spends the month of March crushing balls around Florida Auto Exchange Stadium and looks a whole lot like the guy who had 14 extra base hits and a .302 TAv in September? What if Anthony Alford is an on-base machine and appears to be the ideal solution to the revolving door of leadoff hitters the club struggled with last season?</p>
<p>What this Carrera signing does is raise the floor for the outfield jobs and almost perfectly encapsulates the <em>modus operandi</em> of the Shapiro and Atkins tenure: protect from the replacement level through low risk options without suppressing the <i>ceiling</i> of the roster. Having Carrera in place for $1.9 million pushes Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford to earn the job and supplant the veteran, rather than running the risk of an under prepared rookie getting the job by default. If the best case scenario occurs and space needs to be made available for Hernandez and/or Alford in the short term, one or both of Pearce and Carrera can be sent to the bench, or to another organization altogether thanks to their cost-effective contracts.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Angles In The Outfield: How the Jays Can Survive With Their Current Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2018 11:21:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14851</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention: Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see if there’s a way to upgrade or complement in our outfield.”</p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/949781617106546688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The focus from some was on the first part of the quote, where Atkins said they felt like they could start the season with the outfielders they have. While he goes on to say they do want to upgrade, it was the first half that drew the most attention and the most ire from fans.</p>
<p>Given the state of the Jays outfield, that reaction is understandable. There are no stars in this bunch and not much in the way of established regulars. Kevin Pillar is probably the best of them and that&#8217;s not a great spot for a team that has designs on contending. Pillar is a fine defender in centre field, but has established himself as a below average hitter at this point. Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s career year still had him just under 1 WARP in 131 games, Steve Pearce hits well, defends poorly and can&#8217;t stay healthy, and Teoscar Hernandez, while a solid prospect, was deemed expendable by the World Series champion Astros. There are warts to be found here.</p>
<p>Assuming no upgrades (or that new Jay Yangervis Solarte won&#8217;t play the outfield for the first time since 2014), could the Jays enter the season with the outfield they have? Could they succeed? Let&#8217;s look at some scenarios where they could live, or even thrive, with the outfielders they have currently.</p>
<h3>And Teoscar Goes To&#8230; The Rogers Centre And Hits Dingers All The Time</h3>
<p>Even if Teoscar Hernandez wasn&#8217;t the brightest light in the Astros system, he was still a worthwhile prospect close to the major leagues &#8211; something the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t have a lot of when they acquired him. There were concerns: not fast enough to play centre field, not enough of a bat to play the corner, and he struck out a lot. But, again, the Jays weren&#8217;t in a position to be choosy. That they got an actual prospect for Francisco Liriano was amazing enough.</p>
<p>Hernandez had a solid showing for the Jays after being called up late in the season, hitting 8 home runs in just 95 at-bats. He did strike out 36 times, a concerning number for that amount of at-bats. And there&#8217;s the old adage about not believing anything you see in April and September.</p>
<p>Still, Hernandez is mostly a blank slate at the major league level, someone on whom the Jays can project hope and see the potential for something greater than what he&#8217;s shown so far. He COULD be a star. He could also struggle, as some prospects do in the their first actual shot at the majors. There&#8217;s a wide range of possible outcomes.</p>
<p>The other point to make is that Hernandez would essentially be replacing Jose Bautista. On the whole, it&#8217;s unlikely that Hernandez will ever get close to Bautista&#8217;s accomplishments in his career as a Blue Jay. But the 2017 version of Jose Bautista had an awful season, with a stat line of .203/.308/.366, good for a tAV of only .237. That&#8217;s not a terribly high bar to clear.</p>
<p>So we can say that Hernandez, given a wide open space in the lineup, could easily be better than the man he&#8217;s replacing. He could be a star. But what if he scuffles? What if he bounces between the majors and AAA? How else could the Jays outfield work as it is?</p>
<h3>A Carrera/Pearce Platoon Holds Serve</h3>
<p>There&#8217;s very little exciting about a potential Carrera/Pearce platoon in left field. But it could be worse. The 2017 Jays opened the season with both Carrera AND Pearce in the lineup. The theory was that Pearce would split his time between first base and left field and Carrera would start some in left while backing up in centre and right. We know how that went: Pearce got hurt, Justin Smoak became an all-star, and Carrera had a career year.</p>
<p>Carrera and Pearce are known quantities to Jays fans by this point, but that can be a good thing. They do have some contrasting skills. Pearce provides some right-handed power. Carrera bats left-handed, makes some contact, gets on base, and doesn&#8217;t completely embarrass himself in the field. There&#8217;s an easy platoon in that.</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need a lot from the left field position. 2 WARP would have been good enough for 16th in baseball among left fielders last season and Carrera and Pearce combined for nearly that between them. So while it&#8217;s unlikely that Carrera or Pearce will suddenly find another gear, it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need them to be that much better.</p>
<h3>The Rest Of The Lineup Improves</h3>
<p>This is the most likely scenario. When the Jays&#8217; lineup was a juggernaut in 2015, mauling opponents night in and night out, it was at least in part due to the depth of the lineup. Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson were the headliners, but them being great made it easier for the supporting cast to contribute. And when October rolled around, having the depth they had made it easier for them to carry the bat of someone like Ryan Goins, who hit only in theory during that playoff run.</p>
<p>When we look at the Jays&#8217; potential 2017 lineup, there are a lot of hitters. Donaldson and Smoak are the headliners, with Devon Travis and Russell Martin still able to bring value with the bat. Troy Tulowitzki is a question mark, and Kendrys Morales may have disappointed last season, but there&#8217;s pedigree in those names as guys who have been good previously and could potentially be that good again.</p>
<p>Another help for the lineup: the Jays are better insulated against injury. The acquisitions of Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte give them better depth if someone gets hurt again. There will be no more seeing Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins anchor the bottom of the order. Solarte could even be an outfield option, having spent time there in 2014.</p>
<p>So there&#8217;s a lot of ways the Jays could well stand pat with what they have and be fine in 2017. While the current outfield situation isn&#8217;t ideal, the Jays aren&#8217;t short of options. Ross Atkins is absolutely right: while the Jays should look to upgrade, they could absolutely start the season with what they have and be fine.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>It’s Time for the Blue Jays to Trade Kevin Pillar</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/10/its-time-for-the-blue-jays-to-trade-kevin-pillar/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2017 11:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14078</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve written my fair share of articles on Kevin Pillar over the years, most of them praising him and looking optimistically at his future with the Blue Jays. However, this one is not going to be like the others. This one is going to advocate for the Blue Jays to trade Kevin Pillar. Everybody knows [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve written my fair share of articles on Kevin Pillar over the years, most of them praising him and looking optimistically at his future with the Blue Jays. However, this one is not going to be like the others. This one is going to advocate for the Blue Jays to trade Kevin Pillar.</p>
<p>Everybody knows why Kevin Pillar is valuable; there are no ambiguities about where his talents lie. The 29-year-old&nbsp;is good because he gets to balls in the outfield that a lot of other plays can&#8217;t get to, thus making life a lot easier on the Blue Jays&#8217; pitching staff. But&nbsp;it&#8217;s an oversimplification to&nbsp;just assume that reputation holds as true now as it did when Pillar started to burst onto the scene&nbsp;and into walls in 2015. In fact, the evidence suggests that Pillar has had quite a dramatic downturn in his defensive skills recently. Going by the Statcast numbers, Pillar completely changed in 2017, costing the Blue Jays two outs relative to the average fielder, whereas he earned them an extra 15 outs in 2016.</p>
<p>That difference can be seen most dramatically in what Statcast refers to as four star and five star plays, the hardest outfielders can make. In 2016, Pillar converted 64 and 22 percent of his opportunities for making these plays, respectively. That accounts for 16 four star plays made, and nine five star plays. In 2017, those percentages shrunk to 26.7% and 0.0%, equaling raw totals of 4 and 0 plays made respectively. That is a big swing in plays that Pillar once made, that he didn&#8217;t convert on in 2017.</p>
<p>This is important because Pillar is who he is at the plate. He won&#8217;t be changing anytime soon. He has talked about being a different hitter many times in the past, but in the end, once the sample size increases and small discrepancies are weeded out, Pillar is still the player who is overzealous at the plate and is very liberal with what he swings at. Because of that,&nbsp;the value he provides offensively is virtually non-existent, if not detrimental&nbsp;in the aggregate. Therefore, his entire value lies with his fielding. And if his fielding has shrunk as the statistics would seem to say (If Statcast data wasn&#8217;t enough for you, FRAA, DRS, and UZR all agree with the sentiment as well), then we have already seen Pillar&#8217;s prime, and it would be wise to get off the train now.</p>
<p>If the Blue Jays decide to make Pillar available, they are in a unique situation this winter because there are not many&nbsp;centre field options available on the open market, yet there are a few suitors. Lorenzo Cain is the only free agent who is definitively better than Pillar at this time, as Jarrod Dyson has faded and is now recovering from surgery, while Carlos Gomez probably should be in a corner outfield spot when play starts in 2018.&nbsp;As for teams that could use a centerfielder, the lists includes the Rangers, Royals, Brewers, Mets, Giats, and Mariners, though&nbsp;I&#8217;m sure that list would expand if the Blue Jays were looking to trade Pillar.</p>
<p>Of course, trading Pillar doesn&#8217;t make much sense if the Blue Jays don&#8217;t have a replacement for him. Making one hole to fill another isn&#8217;t how you build a good baseball team. Luckily, the Blue Jays have accrued outfield depth in recent years and would be able to replace Pillar if traded. The list of possible names include Anthony Alford, Teoscar Hernandez, and even Dalton Pompey, if you somehow believe there is something left there.</p>
<p>Alford had a very good 2017 campaign when he wasn&#8217;t dealing with the injury he suffered in his brief call up to Toronto and although the team was dealing with a roster situation when they originally brought him up, they wouldn&#8217;t have made that move and started his clock without the belief that he could play in the majors. Scouts rave about his defense and when the bar to clear offensively is Kevin Pillar, it&#8217;s hard to believe that he wouldn&#8217;t be able to at least mimic that performance.</p>
<p>For Hernandez,&nbsp;I think most would agree that his offensive talent exceeds that of Pillar&#8217;s. The question for him would be if his defense translates to centre field or if he is better suited for a corner spot. More than likely the answer is that he does belong in left or right field, but again, if the bar to exceed is the value Pillar puts up, I think it would be reasonable to assume that the offensive gain would be bigger than the defensive loss.</p>
<p>The&nbsp;reasoning behind all of this is that the Blue Jays must get something in return for trading Pillar. Discussing what they may get is a fool&#8217;s errand, because unless you&#8217;re in the front office, you don&#8217;t know how teams value him. However, no matter what, the Blue Jays would save money from ridding themselves of Pillar and deciding to play Alford or Hernandez. Both of those players are scheduled to make the league minimum in 2018, while Pillar is <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html" target="_blank">projected </a>for a salary of $4.0 million according to MLBTR. Those $3.5 million in savings could go along way to helping this club&nbsp;build when it seems like the team currently only has about $25 million to spend this off-season.</p>
<p>Pillar has had a fantastic career in Toronto, no doubt. He has&nbsp;overachieved since being drafted, but his value is correlated directly to his success in the outfield. If that success is slowly coming to an end as he ages, he all of a sudden doesn&#8217;t become the best use of $4 million when players exist within the Blue Jays system that could provide similar value for an eighth of the cost. If that means Pillar should be traded, it&#8217;s been nice while it lasted. But in the end, the team has to make the smart move to build the best possible roster from player one through 25.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:&nbsp;Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports<br />
Jays Journal <a href="https://jaysjournal.com/2017/11/06/blue-jays-maybe-now-right-time-trade-kevin-pillar/" target="_blank">recently published</a> a piece on the idea of trading Pillar as well. This article was started prior to the Jays Journal article being released.</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 76: AFL and a Fond Farewell</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/28/artificial-turf-wars-ep-76-afl-and-a-fond-farewell/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Sep 2017 10:44:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13604</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 76 2016 first round draft pick and Blue Jays prospect T.J. Zeuch stops by to discuss life leading up to the draft, how he picked his university, the nomadic lifestyle of a recent draftee, and prepping for the upcoming Arizona Fall League. Greg and Josh also go deep on the legacy and (likely) final [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 76</strong></p>
<p>2016 first round draft pick and Blue Jays prospect <a href="https://twitter.com/TJZeuch" target="_blank">T.J. Zeuch</a> stops by to discuss life leading up to the draft, how he picked his university, the nomadic lifestyle of a recent draftee, and prepping for the upcoming Arizona Fall League. Greg and Josh also go deep on the legacy and (likely) final home days for Jose Bautista, the unreal finish for Josh Donaldson, the Bautista-esque September from Teoscar Hernandez, and Marcus Stroman&#8217;s quest for 200 innings. Finally, they take listener questions and give out a Cliché of the Week and a Gold Star.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/029/show_10299843_2017_09_28_03_44_26.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/029/show_10299843_2017_09_28_03_44_26.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Underrated 2017 Feel Good Story: Ezequiel Carrera Excelling</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/27/underrated-feel-good-story-of-the-year-ezequiel-carrera-excelling/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Sep 2017 10:46:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s been an interesting season for Jays outfielder Ezequiel Carrera. He began the year as the strong side of a left field platoon with Steve Pearce, mostly by default: the Jays hadn&#8217;t acquired anyone better to supplant the career backup. But a funny thing happened on the way to Pearce eventually assuming the full-time role. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been an interesting season for Jays outfielder Ezequiel Carrera. He began the year as the strong side of a left field platoon with Steve Pearce, mostly by default: the Jays hadn&#8217;t acquired anyone better to supplant the career backup. But a funny thing happened on the way to Pearce eventually assuming the full-time role. Pearce struggled and then got hurt, and Carrera had a solid season, much better than anyone could have hoped. He will finish the year with career highs in most offensive categories. He&#8217;s third among Jays regulars in tAV and OBP, and fifth on the team in WARP. Though no one would mistake him for an elite defender, he has played all three outfield positions, giving the Jays some flexibility on a team with far too many slow-footed defenders.</p>
<p>That Carrera has been benched probably isn&#8217;t a commentary on his performance, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/04/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-red-sox-4/">as we explained previously</a>. It&#8217;s a names and numbers game. In a meaningless September, the prospects are going to play. The established stars are going to play. Carrera, a journeyman in the midst of his finest season, is neither. At 30, there&#8217;s probably no higher ceiling for him to reach, and no fans to appease by writing his name in the lineup every day.</p>
<p>Zeke&#8217;s career year is a feather in his cap, and could potentially have been a fun story in a more successful Jays year. One could look at him and see a fringe major leaguer, making good after being written off again and again, grabbing hold of a regular role despite the doubts and questions that have constantly surrounded him. The Jays have always tried to move on, to find a better regular to supplant him, but Carrera has always found at-bats and a roster spot during his time in Toronto.</p>
<p>Despite being a fixture on the team through two playoff seasons, Zeke isn&#8217;t a fan favourite. He&#8217;s quiet with the media, and his status as a backup prior to this season made him less visible. But he also doesn&#8217;t have something really identifiable as a skill, a calling card that would draw someone&#8217;s attention. Ask a fan what Zeke is good at, and you&#8217;ll probably get some furrowed brows as we try to figure it out. He doesn&#8217;t have the power of a Bautista or Donaldson, or the glove of a Pillar or Tulowitzki. He doesn&#8217;t hit for a high average, and isn&#8217;t the base-runner that Dalton Pompey was late in the 2015 season.</p>
<p>The Jays might try to knock Carrera down the depth chart again after this season. It&#8217;s easy to see why the team might look for a better solution. Despite the career year, there&#8217;s nothing really spectacular about Zeke. He&#8217;s not a star, a magnet for the attention of fans and front offices. He&#8217;s just fine. The team may not believe he&#8217;s as good as he showed this season, more a backup than a starter. There are other, bigger names that the team has to accommodate, and more immovable pieces ahead of him in the depth chart. &#8220;Left field&#8221; was the fallback for places the Jays could improve, and will likely be again.</p>
<p>Even in an outfield in flux, it&#8217;s easy to see where Carrera could get squeezed out. Needing some certainty, the Jays will probably bring Kevin Pillar back, living with a below-average bat for his reliable glove. Teoscar Hernandez should be given every chance to grab hold of an everyday spot. Steve Pearce, whose power plays better for a corner outfielder, will need his at-bats as well. Maybe Anthony Alford or Dwight Smith Jr. asserts themselves in spring training, forcing themselves into the conversation. Maybe the Jays spend to make the outfield a strength rather than a question mark.</p>
<p>Carrera will likely get to watch more games from the dugout as 2017 draws to a close, and that&#8217;s a bit of a shame. He was one of the few bright spots in a bad Jays season, someone who actually exceeded expectations. The team and fans may look to replace him, and that&#8217;s all well and good. But if he does come back, and has a spot in the lineup on opening day, maybe that&#8217;s fine too. As one of the few good things about this season, we should be open to the idea that he could surprise us again.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays 2017 Farm System in Review: The Hitters</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/18/blue-jays-2017-farm-system-in-review-the-hitters/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/18/blue-jays-2017-farm-system-in-review-the-hitters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2017 10:59:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bo Bichette]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cavan Biggio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Jansen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hagen Danner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logan Warmoth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reese McGuire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Richard Urena]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Riley Adams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vlad Guerrero Jr.]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13410</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Vancouver Canadians are champions of the Northwest League. The Dunedin Blue Jays are co-champions of the Florida State League. The Bluefield Blue Jays and the DSL Blue Jays made post-season appearances. While there were some setbacks, on the whole, the system was replete with success stories. Let&#8217;s review. The Canadians made post-season magic on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Vancouver Canadians are champions of the Northwest League.<br />
The Dunedin Blue Jays are co-champions of the Florida State League.<br />
The Bluefield Blue Jays and the DSL Blue Jays made post-season appearances.</p>
<p>While there were some setbacks, on the whole, the system was replete with success stories. Let&#8217;s review.</p>
<p>The Canadians made post-season magic on the strength of shutdown pitching while the tired offense struggled. They went 5-1 in the post-season, winning four of those five by a score of 2-1. &#8220;Big&#8221; Nate Pearson racked up 14 strikeouts in eight innings pitched over two starts, allowing a single run; The piggyback combination of Zach Logue and Justin Dillon (who regularly pitched together this season) combined for 13 innings pitched giving up only two earned runs while striking out 21 in the two games in which they appeared. More impressive yet, the Canadians&#8217; bullpen combined for 25 innings pitched, while giving up one earned run, striking out 31, and walking only five.</p>
<p>The D-Jays had to settle for co-champion status after Hurricane Irma forced the FSL to cancel their championship series. After losing game one, they played a double header against the Tampa Yankees and won both ends behind dominant pitching from T.J. Zeuch and Jordan Romano.</p>
<p>Now, with team news out of the way, I&#8217;ll turn my attention to individual performances. In part one I&#8217;ll review the hitters, by position, and in part two we&#8217;ll take a look at the pitching.</p>
<h3>Catchers</h3>
<p>This is arguably the most well stocked position in this section which is, frankly, a weird thing to be saying about the Blue Jays.  I reviewed this position at some length <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/28/blue-jays-minor-league-report-a-cornucopia-of-catchers/">a few weeks back.</a> To that analysis I will only take the time to add this bit of information I discovered about <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=596069#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Max Pentecost</strong></a>.</p>
<p>If this guy had not had shoulder issues, he might well have already suited up in Toronto. Every quote I&#8217;ve seen from Jays staff is a rave review. He got a gentle re-introduction to catching this season and in light of a recently published comment in which he described finding it harder to stay focused when he wasn&#8217;t behind the plate, I decided to take a deeper look at this season. For starters, they never had him catch back-to-back games, and he only played 72 games in all due to injuries (apparently unrelated to the shoulder, but injury info on prospects is very difficult to access) including missing the last 3+ weeks of the season. What I found was that the results, albeit in a small sample, support his observation. He played 20 games behind the plate, 22 at first and was the DH 30 times. Here&#8217;s his respective slash lines at each position:</p>
<p>In 81 AB as a catcher: .358/.381/.654/1.035<br />
In 86 AB at first base: .196/.250/.337/.587<br />
In 121 AB as a DH: .273/.348/.422/.780<br />
Overall in 288 AB: .274/.330/.431/.761</p>
<p>This is probably just noise, but maybe it means something? We&#8217;ll have to see.</p>
<p>My prediction is that <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=643376#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Danny Jansen</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=624512#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Reese McGuire</strong></a> will begin 2018 sharing time in Buffalo with a high likelihood that one or both will see time in Toronto. Pentecost will slot in at AA and I expect<a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=656180#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong> Riley Adams</strong></a> to leapfrog to Dunedin while the <strong><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=670394#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Ryan Gold</a>/<a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=660857#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Yorman Rodriguez</a></strong> duo will break camp with Lansing. Although due to some crowding at that level the latter might stay back and go to Vancouver. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=668470#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Hagen Danner</strong></a>, this year&#8217;s second round choice, could slot into either Vancouver or Bluefield depending on how everyone looks in the spring.</p>
<h3>First Base</h3>
<p><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=642133#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Rowdy Tellez</strong></a> was the one &#8220;buzz&#8221; guy at this position coming into the season and he had the first rough year of his career. Early on he was likely affected by some difficult family issues, but even when his average finally recovered in August the power stroke was nowhere to be found. Thankfully Justin Smoak&#8217;s emergence took the urgency away on Rowdy&#8217;s development. He&#8217;ll no doubt repeat AAA next year.  <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=622806#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Juan Kelly</strong></a> in Dunedin was good-but-not-great in a pitcher&#8217;s league, but also brings positional versatility being able to also play 3B and even catch in a pinch (he was signed as a catcher).  2017 8th round choice <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=641459#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Kacey Clemens</strong></a> was a mainstay for the VanCs and 15th rounder <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=676116#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Ryan Noda</strong></a> was the Appy League Player of the year and a monster for Bluefield (1.082 OPS). Whomever has a better spring will have the chance to jump to Dunedin next year with the other off to Lansing.</p>
<h3>Second Base</h3>
<p>When one lays aside upcoming minor league free agents, the most advanced 2B in the systems is Tim Lopes. While he came up big for NH often, however, a .729 OPS isn&#8217;t going to get him added to any prospect lists. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=624415#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Cavan Biggio</strong></a> is a member of the Jays Second Generation Club, but he also totaled a .705 OPS for Dunedin in his age 22 season—that&#8217;s not going to cut it. That brings us to <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=669392#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Samad Taylor</strong></a>. He was the second player that the Jays picked up from Cleveland in the Joe Smith deal. After a brief stop in Bluefield, he hit .333 for the balance of August with a hit in every one of those August games save one. Over that stretch his OPS was .848 and he&#8217;ll be someone to watch in Lansing next spring.</p>
<h3>Shortstop</h3>
<p>By now you probably know that spring crush <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=621037#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Jason Leblebijian</strong></a> went off a cliff in early June and crushed the illusion that he might have a major league role. He&#8217;ll be back in Buffalo as a utility man playing mostly 3B next year. More exciting for Bisons fans is the likely advent of <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=620446#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Richard Urena</strong></a>. As recently as the first of this month I was convinced that he&#8217;d go back to AA to begin 2018 as his production their this year did not scream, &#8220;promote me.&#8221; However if he can carry over the gains of his September major league hot streak to next spring, that might earn him the bump. It&#8217;s said that the Jays will want to see him get more work in at 2B next spring in anticipation of middle infield injuries, and that positional flexibility is also something they want in <strong><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=666971#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Lourdes Gurriel Jr.</a> </strong></p>
<p>Gurriel himself did not impress offensively either this year (both he and Urena had an OPS of .286 with LGJ slugging slightly higher) there are quite a few caveats. He missed much of the first half with hamstring injuries and when he did return it was after over two years out of organized competitive baseball games. There&#8217;s a reasonable chance that he has a better spring and, given that he&#8217;s 24 (over two years older than Urena) he&#8217;ll get the AAA assignment. There&#8217;s an argument to be made for separating them, so as not to crowd the SS playing time, but if the Jays want both to be highly flexible in the infield then it is also perfectly reasonable for them to pair the two in the middle of Buffalo&#8217;s infield, occasionally rotating back and forth.</p>
<p>Doing so opens up New Hampshire&#8217;s job for <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=666182#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Bo Bichette</strong></a>. Given that Bichette only got into 40 games for Dunedin, the cautious approach would be to at least let him (and a certain other individual) open the year back there and avoid the spring cold that one must deal with in New Hampshire. But that would certainly be a temporary situation unless he completely fell apart. Whether he plays 140 games in AA or 100, the job is effectively his given he was the most productive hitter (on a full season team) in the Blue Jays system in 2017.</p>
<p>The job Bo leaves behind in Dunedin would likely go to some combination of young Venezuelan shortstops <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=650988#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Yeltsin Gudino</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=660631#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Kevin Vicuna</strong></a>. Both are, to this point, relatively light hitting glove men whom the organization likes, but they&#8217;re not really on anybody&#8217;s top 30 list. With that said, Gudino was considered the No. 8 international signing prospect in 2013 and Vicuna was No. 30 the following year, so there might be some unrealized upside with them . At some point, though, they would likely take a back seat to one of the Blue Jays&#8217; 2017 first round picks: <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=657089#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Logan Warmoth</strong></a>.</p>
<p>In truth, it&#8217;s not impossible to imagine a scenario where Warmoth leapfrogs the two aforementioned shortstops and goes straight to Dunedin. But given the Blue Jays&#8217; handling of the previous year&#8217;s draft picks as well as the inherent luxury of having impressive depth above him, the 2017 top pick most likely breaks with Lansing. Warmoth did everything the team could have hoped this year in Vancouver, even while the rest of the hitters wore down towards the end of what was, particularly for college hitters, a really long season. Fellow 2017 draftee <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=675656#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Kevin Smith</strong></a> deserves a mention here as well, likely taking his assignment one level behind Warmoth wherever that ends up being.</p>
<h3>Third Base</h3>
<p>I know what you&#8217;re thinking, but let me take these in order from the top of the system down&#8230;even though that won&#8217;t take long. Jason Leblijian will just be a placeholder—at best—in Buffalo. Matt Dean will be a minor league free agent who&#8217;ll be very lucky to get an offer. Mitch Nay is still around, after much trouble with injury, but also hasn&#8217;t proven he can hit. So let&#8217;s just move on to discussing <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=665489#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Vlad Guerrero Jr</strong>.</a></p>
<p>Vlad, whom more and more folks are putting in discussions about the best prospect in the game, is obviously in the same position as Bo. The team could easily justify conservatively leaving him in Dunedin to begin the year in the sunshine until early May, but given that he has yet to experience serious adversity it might be considered advantageous to his development to let him break camp in AA. Whatever the schedule, that&#8217;s likely where he&#8217;ll play most of his games come year&#8217;s end. It&#8217;s also worth noting that how they choose to develop him will be at least somewhat affected by whether they extend Josh Donaldson this winter (or at least the nature of the conversations with his representatives about doing so).</p>
<p>If/when Guerrero settles in at AA, look for <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=641735#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Bradley Jones</strong></a> to get most of the reps at 3B in Dunedin. While he&#8217;s capable of playing 2B and 1B (and presumably would be a decent enough outfielder) third is where the depth chart is thinnest and so logically he&#8217;d get his best chance here. Jones was so impressive in Lansing that he was their first hitter promoted to Dunedin, but injuries limited him to 17 games and likely underlaid the 0 for 26 stretch that preceded his trip to the DL. The FSL hasn&#8217;t seen the real Jones yet. Below that level it gets dicey. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=650991#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Bryan Lizardo</strong></a> was unproductive at Vancouver, <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=660709#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Sterling Guzman</strong></a> hit well in Bluefield before a season ending injury. The second highest paid signing by the Blue Jays in this July 2 period was a 3B, Miguel Hiraldo, but he was described in rosey terms for his hitting, little mention was made of his defense, and he a very long way off.</p>
<h3>Outfield</h3>
<p>The top of the list in terms of advancement among outfield prospects is <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=606192#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Teoscar Hernandez</strong></a>. In fact, he&#8217;s graduated from officially being considered a prospect (joining <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=592647#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Dalton Pompey</strong></a> in &#8220;prospect but not officially&#8221; status). Barring the real possibility that the Blue Jays bring in someone from outside the organization this winter, I&#8217;d say confidence is high Hernandez has first shot at becoming the Opening Day right fielder in the Spring. Pompey, sadly, did not even get to play enough this year to burn an option, so in the unlikely event he doesn&#8217;t get hurt next spring, the Blue Jays can option him to Buffalo and see if he can consolidate his abilities without breaking again.</p>
<p>Joining him in that outfield will presumably be <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=546990#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Anthony Alford</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=596105#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Dwight Smith Jr</strong></a>. Smith spent 2017 with Buffalo and was mostly okay, but nothing about him suggests anything more than a fourth outfielder ceiling and guy who&#8217;ll probably bounce around the way Zeke Carerra was doing when he came to town. Alford, on the other hand, will surely be the team&#8217;s consensus No. 3 prospect this winter and rightly so. Most observers still think there&#8217;s some unrealized over-the-fence power left in his game, but otherwise he&#8217;s a practically perfect prospect both on and off the field. One reason the team might gamble with a Pearce/Carrera/Pillar/Hernandez outfield is the knowledge that Alford is so close. Alternately (and this is how I&#8217;d play it) they could aggressively shop Pillar and plug Alford into CF, but my guess is this organization is too conservative to break camp with rookies in two-thirds of the starting outfield slots.</p>
<p>Another outfielder who you&#8217;ll potential find in Buffalo in 2018, if he&#8217;s not taken in the Rule 5 Draft, is speedy <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=605231#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Roemon Fields</strong></a>. He has no power at all, but his OBP was .355 and he stole 43 bases while playing praiseworthy defense, which quite a few teams would tolerate off their bench. Behind this grouping is <strong><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=623912#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Harold Ramirez</a></strong>. At his best in 2015 he was a high OBP guy with a little pop and good speed, but in two seasons AA has exposed him and he&#8217;s at this point looking like a marginal guy who&#8217;s not even as good as Smith.</p>
<p>The next guy you want to get excited about is Toronto native and future fan favorite <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=664768#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Connor Panas</strong></a>. Panas led the FSL in homers, and finished second in SLG and OPS. He&#8217;ll plug right into AA as the everyday RF and will again be overshadowed by the Bo and Vladdy show. While he&#8217;s not on their level (he&#8217;ll be 25 next year), he&#8217;s got enough going on to deserve some notice. Then there&#8217;s <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=658668#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Edward Olivares</strong></a>, the other guy who spent 2017 in the shadow of the Show. He was fifth in the Midwest League in OPS, third in slugging. When the 21 year old Venezuelan was promoted to Dunedin on August 13 it took him a few games to find his stroke and he didn&#8217;t manage even one homer at the higher level, but that should not dampen your enthusiasm. He&#8217;ll return to the FSL next spring.</p>
<p>Another interesting guy was Lansing&#8217;s <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=641943#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Joshua Palacios</strong></a>. The 2016 4th rounder was horrendous to begin the season and did not recover before going on the DL on June 5 with a .541 OPS. Just over two weeks later he came off a changed man. From there on out he hit .38 with an .824 OPS which has me projecting him to be Dunedin&#8217;s opening day CF next spring. The other 2017 draft choice on the Lansing roster was second rounder <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=642223#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>J.B. Woodman</strong></a>. You can&#8217;t entirely dismiss him but 157 strikeouts in 96 games (and only seven homers) won&#8217;t play.</p>
<p>On the short season teams the most well regarded prospect has to be <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=663545#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Reggie Pruitt</strong></a>. He&#8217;s still exceedingly raw, but after ending June hitting a sub-optimal .102, he posted a .257 BA with a .650 OPS over the second half, while playing big defense and stealing 28 bases in 36 tries. He&#8217;s still years away from refining them, but the tools are there. A couple of other guys in Vancouver hit marginally better, but they seem to have considerably lower ceilings. Another guy I&#8217;ve been watching is <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=650996#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Freddy Rodriguez</strong></a>. He was No. 18 in that aforementioned 2013 class and his first two pro seasons were unimpressive, then he was limited by injury to only seven games in 2016. He also missed the first month of the short season this year but when he got to play he showed an improved game. It was only 28 games total, but his OPS was .861 and he&#8217;s still only 20. I&#8217;d speculate he has the chance to open with Lansing but the Jays may opt for caution and assign him to Vancouver. Finally, I&#8217;d be remiss if I did not mention <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=668474#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Dominic Abbadassa</strong></a> (23rd rd, 2016) who hit .340 in the GCL with an .811 OPS, and 2017 draftee <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=668470#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>DJ Neal</strong></a> (26th)  who overcame a 2 for 27 midseason slump and hit .346 in all other games with an .812 OPS. Both will get a chance to prove their mettle in Vancouver next year.</p>
<p>Other names you may see mentioned among OF include Jon Davis, Andrew Guillote, and Brock Luundquist.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s 40 names in bold, dig in because there&#8217;s a boatload of pitchers to talk about ext time.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Steve Mitchell —USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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