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	<title>Toronto &#187; Tampa Bay Rays</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Rays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/22/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-rays-5/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Aug 2017 13:16:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Bennett Brauer, Cole Nefsky, and Gideon Turk Hot Corner Hitting With the Rays and Blue Jays fighting for the 2nd AL Wild Card position, both teams will need their all-world Third Basemen &#8211; Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson, respectively &#8211; to carry them to the next level. Aside from being their team’s best players, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Bennett Brauer, Cole Nefsky, and Gideon Turk</em></p>
<p><b>Hot Corner Hitting</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">With the Rays and Blue Jays fighting for the 2</span><span style="font-weight: 400">nd</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> AL Wild Card position, both teams will need their all-world Third Basemen &#8211; Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson, respectively &#8211; to carry them to the next level. </span>Aside from being their team’s best players, they both share tremendous starts to their careers and unusual contract situations.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evan-longoria-is-and-isnt-back/"><span style="font-weight: 400">Per FanGraphs</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">, through the first nine seasons of his career, Longoria led all position players with a 45.1 cumulative WAR. His 2017 numbers are down somewhat, but his excellent glovework has still kept him in the top 25 of AL position player WARP this year. </span>Donaldson has finished in the top eight in each of the last four MVP races, winning it in 2015. Due to injuries, Donaldson’s 2017 total numbers are down, even though he would be on pace for a 40 homer season if he was healthy.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Both players also might not monetize their great careers to the fullest for different reasons. Longoria was the 2006 3</span><span style="font-weight: 400">rd</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> overall pick and famously signed a contract extension with three club options before his MLB career was a week old in 2008. Eight years later, he doubled down and signed</span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/evan-longoria-contract-2014-5"> <span style="font-weight: 400">another below market contract extension,</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> one that guaranteed him </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">only</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> $100 million. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Donaldson became a full time MLB player at 26 years old and the earliest he can become a free agent is a month before he turns 33, which stunts his leverage for multiple extensions. Considering the lack of leverage he has due to MLB’s pre-arb and arbitration setups in a player&#8217;s first six years of service time, Donaldson has done VERY well with a 2 year/$28 million deal heading into his last year of arbitration. If he was five or six years younger experiencing success this early in his career, like phenoms Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, and Freddie Freeman, he would be more likely to have gotten a big contract extension, circumventing his arbitration years and making a higher salary at a younger age.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This month, however, their production differs. Just this August alone, Donaldson has nine homers and an OPS of 1.324, dwarfing Longoria’s production over the same time period, with one homer and an OPS of .665.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: left"><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">If the Jays want to make ground on the 2</span><span style="font-weight: 400">nd</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> Wild Card Spot and permanently pass the Rays, they will need both players’ current August trajectories to continue. </span></strong></p>
<p><b>Two Peas (or Teams) in a Pod</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Tampa Bay Rays are a team that shares a similar story to the Jays, but played out of order. They’ve had a disappointing rotation with a disappointing bullpen and a disappointing offense that has hung around playoff contention to give their respective fanbases (with the Rays’ being significantly smaller) enough hope to be disappointed once more when the playoffs get stripped away.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Steven Souza Jr., Logan Morrison, and Tommy Hunter (a player particularly close to my heart) have been the true bright spots in this otherwise upsetting season. Souza took big steps forward in his plate discipline, which has let his power play up. This has coincided with the realization that he is a mighty fine right fielder. He has been an incredible player this season and given his lack of high-flying BABIP, you could expect this has been a reflection of his true talent more than Chris Colabello-style miracles. He’s quite a large man, but he has had a bit of a boost from a ~27% HR/FB, which means his ISO might be blown up a bit.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Logan Morrison, a Statcast darling for the last couple of years, has finally caught onto the fly ball revolution and is letting his top notch exit velocity on air-balls finally play off. His BABIP, if anything, is a touch lower than you’d expect, so I’d trust what you’ve seen out of LoMo this year.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Tommy Hunter throws gas and is getting more Ks than ever because of some arsenal tuning. He mostly cut out four seam fastballs, instead opting for more cutters and curveballs. I think he’s a lot of fun to watch on the mound and I’m excited to see him in action.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Rays and Jays have been linked by division and name for quite some time. Their seasons are playing out in concert with each other. And while St. Petersburg used to look a little brighter with their massive and groundbreaking analytics department, due to the development of the Jays’ FO and the much more substantial payroll, I like the Jays’ outlook in seasons to come a little bit more.</span></p>
<p style="text-align: left"><strong>Rowley and the Walking Rays</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left">A pitcher generally has an advantage when batters are uncomfortable in the box because they haven&#8217;t seen him yet. For Chris Rowley, that has meant that over his first two starts, he has been helped along by the surprise and has a shiny 2.61 ERA to show for it. However, when Rowley starts the opening game against the Rays on Tuesday, that&#8217;ll all change as it will be his second consecutive start against Tampa.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Last time out, Rowley&#8217;s line ended up fine thanks to only allowing two runs to score, but his process, giving up four hits and five walks, was less than inspiring. The Rays are the third most free swinging team in Major League Baseball in terms of swing% and K%, yet Rowley was only able to get three punch outs. This is obviously a symptom of being the more contact driven pitcher that he is and it is very possible to be successful using that type of approach. However, Rowley cannot walk so many batters if he wants to have continued success.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Despite their swing first mentality, the Rays also draw their share of walks, current ranking eighth in baseball in BB%. For Rowley, this presents a more difficult challenge in his second game facing Tampa Bay than it did in his first. While their batters may have been off balance a few times throughout the game because they hadn&#8217;t seen him yet, that won&#8217;t be the case in this game. The Rays will know what the movement on Rowley&#8217;s pitches will look like, so it can be expected that their normally very good plate discipline will be on an even bigger display. Rowley can counter that by attacking the zone more often, relying on the fielding behind him to try to get outs, rather than trying to make a perfect pitch every time and missing out of the zone. Free baserunners are bad. Rowley will have to limit them if he is going to help the Blue Jays make up ground in the wild card race.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Blue Jays Series vs. the Rays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/05/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-rays-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 05 May 2017 16:18:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Gideon Turk Tulo and Donaldson to Be Re-Evaluated in Florida This Weekend The most interesting thing to watch during this weekend’s series in Tampa might not take place on the field at all, but rather down the interstate in Dunedin where the left side of the Blue Jays [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Gideon Turk</span></i></p>
<h3><b>Tulo and Donaldson to Be Re-Evaluated in Florida This Weekend</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The most interesting thing to watch during this weekend’s series in Tampa might not take place on the field at all, but rather down the interstate in Dunedin where the left side of the Blue Jays infield has been rehabbing. Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki have both been out of action since mid-April with calf and hamstring injuries respectively.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Gregor Chisolm at <a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/227867132/troy-tulowitzki-josh-donaldson-rehab-update/" target="_blank">MLB.com is reporting</a> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">that both players will be re-evaluated while the team is in Florida this weekend, and that there is at least a chance that the two players could join the team next week in Toronto. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It goes without saying that the Jays less-than-stellar start to the season is in some part related to the injuries of the team’s two best position players. Tulo and JD combined for 0.8 WARP in 96 plate appearances before hitting the disabled list. Aside from Chris Coghlan’s highlight reel front flip over Yadier Molina, he and Ryan Goins have been unable to contribute much offensively in the absence of Donaldson and Tulowitzki. With Devon Travis’ early season struggles, Darwin Barney has been forced into part-time duty at second base, keeping Goins an Coghlan in the lineup more often than not.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Aside from the obvious downgrade in production, watching players as good as Donaldson and Tulowitzki are the lone bright spots in following a struggling team, aside from the previously mentioned Coughlan flip. I know this may sound a little too Mike Trout-on-the-Angels for most fans, but a struggling team with a few great players is still better than a struggling team with no great players. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">At 9-19, the Jays have dug themselves quite a hole. Having Donaldson and Tulo in the lineup makes this team better but it also makes them more enjoyable to watch. No matter how good or bad the team is.</span></p>
<h3><b>Get Ready For Some Sliders</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In this week’s series against the Yankees, the Blue Jays managed to hit well against a Yankees pitching staff throwing a heavy number of sliders. This matchup did not seem to favour the Blue Jays, who went into the series as the worst hitting team versus sliders in 2017 by FanGraphs’ pitch value metric. Well, there’s now a glimmer of hope:</span><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=7&amp;season=2017&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2017&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=3,d"> <span style="font-weight: 400">they’re not last anymore!</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> After the series against the Yankees, the team is now only second-worst in baseball. Marginal improvement? Yes, but hey, it’s always nice to not be the absolute worst at something.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">What’s more notable than Toronto’s ever so slightly improved performance against sliders is the new team that has slid into last as a result: their next opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays. Apart from Corey Dickerson, every Rays regular has produced negative value against the slider so far this season. This lack of success for the Rays seems to be limited to just the slider – by the same metric, the only other pitch in which they have produced at a below average rate is the cutter. This will be an area to focus on for the Blue Jays in order to succeed this weekend.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays and Rays combined misery against sliders will be particularly of note during Friday night’s game, when Francisco Liriano takes the mound against Chris Archer. Of starters who have thrown at least 10 innings this season, Archer has thrown the highest percentage of sliders at 46.9%, with Liriano following behind in fifth at 35.1%. Another place to watch for heavy slider usage is Tampa’s bullpen – two of their key relievers, Jumbo Diaz and Alex Colome, have thrown sliders in 2017 at staggering rates of 50.6% and 68% respectively.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Keep an eye on this trend during Friday night’s game with each team’s slider ace taking the mound, as well as late in games with two of Tampa’s high-leverage relievers. If both teams increase their slider usage to take advantage of each other’s struggles against the pitch, offense may not come easy this weekend.</span></p>
<h3><strong>Marco Estrada and the Rays</strong></h3>
<p>Do you remember in 2015 when Marco Estrada almost no-hit Tampa Bay? He didn&#8217;t end up getting the job done, but he did throw eight and two thirds innings of two hit, shutout ball with ten strikeouts. That year, Estrada three over 27 innings against Tampa, and only allowed two runs the entire time. It was pure dominance. It hasn&#8217;t continued.</p>
<p>Since 2015 ended, Estrada has made four starts against Tampa Bay; three in 2016, one last month. All of them have seen him leave the game with fewer than six innings under his belt, and all but one with four or more runs allowed. His ERA in these four games has been over 7.00. This could just be random fluctuation. Estrada is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and even the best pitchers in baseball need to have their bad games once in a while. In fact, Estrada&#8217;s start against Tampa Bay last month is still his lone appearance in 2017 where he has allowed more than two runs.</p>
<p>However, when a team consistently has numbers like the Rays have with Estrada, I think the odds are better that they are doing something specific to prepare for these games. Estrada is the type of pitcher in which the outside observer will remark that it seems very simple to hit off of him. His best skill is his rising fastball, and if hitters can adjust their swing plane for a day, they should be able to have success. Additionally, his change up usually gives hitters the fits, but again, that is something that with enough video and advance scouting, a team can fight against. If a team can point out a slight difference between a change up and fastball, that could significant help their batters, and allow them to be prepared for what is coming.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure if either of those two things are reasons why Estrada has struggled with the Rays recently, but it&#8217;s now been four bad starts for him in a row against this team over a period of time where he has been dominant against everybody else. Hopefully he breaks out of that this weekend, but history isn&#8217;t going to bet on him.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Blue Jays Series vs. Tampa Bay</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/28/3-things-to-watch-for-in-the-blue-jays-series-vs-tampa-bay/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Apr 2017 14:17:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Rachael McDaniel, Gideon Turk, and Elie Waitzer Steven Souza Jr.: A Familiar Foe, Now with Added Plate Discipline Steven Souza Jr. has been a thorn in the side of Blue Jays pitching for the entirety of his two seasons with the Rays. In his 34 career games against the Jays, he is slashing [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><strong><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Rachael McDaniel, Gideon Turk, and Elie Waitzer</span></i></strong></p>
<p><strong>Steven Souza Jr.: A Familiar Foe, Now with Added Plate Discipline</strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Steven Souza Jr. has been a thorn in the side of Blue Jays pitching for the entirety of his two seasons with the Rays. In his 34 career games against the Jays, he is slashing .307/.385/.551. Unfortunately, he seems primed to become an even bigger problem this season, thanks to his embracing the magic of plate discipline. While the 2015 and 2016 seasons had Souza’s K% at 33.8 percent and 34.0 percent, the latter number the highest among MLB hitters with a minimum of 600 PA, he’s managed to knock that number down to 25.3 percent so far in 2017. He’s also improved upon his BB%, raising it to 11.6 percent from 6.6 percent last season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Much like our very own Kevin Pillar, Souza in his 2017 incarnation appears to have gotten better at laying off pitches outside of the strike zone. His O-swing% is down to 24.2 percent from 30.6 percent last year. (This difference of 6.4 percentage points is, incidentally, almost the exact same as the difference between Pillar’s 2016 and 2017 O-swing% &#8211; Kevin has dropped his by 6.5 points.) Souza has also dropped his swinging strike rate by 3.7 percentage points from last year. So not only has he toned down his propensity for chasing pitches that aren’t strikes, but Souza has vastly improved his contact rate on pitches that </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">are </span></i><span style="font-weight: 400">strikes. Even though Souza has actually seen a smaller proportion of pitches in the zone this year than last year, his zone contact rate has risen from 75.3 percent to 81.7 percent.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">All of these changes have combined to give Souza quite the hot start to 2017. As of April 27th, he was batting .330/.404/.557. He was named AL Player of the Week for April 17th-24th after batting .414 with two homers, and he has already had a chance to rough up the Blue Jays this season, with seven hits (including three doubles and a home run) during a four-game series in the accursed confines of the Trop. He tagged Marcus Stroman, who opens this series, for three of those hits.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Souza has also been the beneficiary of an absurd .455 BABIP so far this season. It’s virtually impossible that he stays this hot forever. But for the Blue Jays to win this series, they’ll have to at least slow Souza’s roll somewhat. And sadly, Troy Tulowitzki isn’t eligible to return from his DL stint until May 2nd, meaning he won’t be able to distract Souza from hitting by stoking the flames of </span><a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1266074683/?query=tulowitzki%2Bsouza"><span style="font-weight: 400">their ongoing feud.</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> But who knows? Maybe he’ll show up just to get some jeers in.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><b>The Return of Aaron Sanchez&#8230;and His Fastball?</b></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">It&#8217;s been a disaster start for the Blue Jays this season, and despite the assurances from </span><a href="https://twitter.com/Wilnerness590/status/857782947293921280"><span style="font-weight: 400">certain radio hosts</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> that everything is fine, it isn’t. The team is quickly running out of time before the hole they are digging will be too deep for them to escape. One player that could help them immensely is Aaron Sanchez, with the most recent reports saying that he could be pitching the last game of this series on Sunday afternoon. Sanchez has only made two starts on the year because of his blister issue, but the first of those was against these same Rays, and he shoved. He allowed one baserunner for every inning he pitched, going seven strong while allowing just one batter to cross the plate.</span></p>
<p><strong><span style="font-weight: 400">How Sanchez shut down the Rays on April 8th is an interesting story because he was a different pitcher than he was in 2016, or his other start this year. Sanchez threw 101 pitches on the evening, with 43 percent of those being four seam fastballs. Only once in 2016 did he surpass that mark. What this meant is that he relied less on his otherworldly sinker, throwing it only 33 percent of the time rather than the 54 percent he averaged in 2016. This was no doubt a deliberate strategy by Sanchez and his catcher, Russell Martin, and it worked, as the Rays whiffed on over a quarter of their swings and registered only one hit against the fourseamer. Against pitches that are greater than 95 mph this season, the Rays are 24th in baseball in OPS at just .571, so Sanchez could go back to the heavy fastball mix again if he makes this start. </span></strong></p>
<p><strong><b>Blake Snell: Too Filthy For His Own Good</b></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">When you think of Blake Snell, you think ridiculous curveball, power fastball, and command issues. After an intriguing debut season in which he went from dominant to disastrous from start to start, many picked him to breakout as a filthy number two starter behind Chris Archer on the Rays staff. How could you not fall in love with his potential when his heater gets some of the </span><a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pitchfx/leaderboards/"><span style="font-weight: 400">most vertical rise</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> in the majors and his hook <a href="http://imgur.com/pbf2mc7" target="_blank">looks like this</a>?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">But while his 3.38 ERA thus far has been good to fantasy owners, he’s still struggling with the same problems that plagued him last year.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Exhibit A: He has as many walks as he has strikeouts (15:15).<br />
Exhibit B: He’s missing the zone over 60 percent of the time, and not in an intentional, Liriano kind of way.<br />
</span>Exhibit C: His first-strike percentage ranks in the bottom ten. Filthiness only gets you so far in the majors; you still have to throw strikes.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In the three times the Jays have seen Snell in his career, they’ve struck out 14 times, but they’ve also walked 11 times. Expect more of the same, but don’t expect Snell to stick to his old game plan. He’s rolled with a fastball-change heavy mix in the past (over 85 percent combined), but given how the Jays have fared against the breaking ball early on, this would be a good occasion to lean more on his curveball.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">For the Jays, I propose a counter-adjustment. Snell is a lock to walk three to five batters. The way the Jays have been hitting with RISP, they should be ultra-aggressive on the basepaths to squeeze every run out of their baserunners instead of trying to hit home runs off of his breaking stuff. Although, that’s easier said than done when Kevin Pillar is your only speed threat.</span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:  Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Claim Catcher Luke Maile from Rays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/06/blue-jays-claim-catcher-luke-maile-from-rays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Apr 2017 18:17:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have acquired catcher Luke Maile from the Rays on a waiver claim, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports: #Rays C Luke Maile, who was DFA&#39;d on Saturday, is heading to the #BlueJays &#8212; Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) April 6, 2017 Topkin also reports that Maile, 26, will be assigned to the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have acquired catcher Luke Maile from the Rays on a <a href="https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/850046677725655041" target="_blank">waiver claim</a>, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash">#Rays</a> C Luke Maile, who was DFA&#39;d on Saturday, is heading to the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/850041575065481218">April 6, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Topkin <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/850042877191356421" target="_blank">also reports</a> that Maile, 26, will be assigned to the AAA Buffalo Bisons, not the Blue Jays. With Russell Martin starting and Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the back up role, the Blue Jays are fine behind the plate at the moment. However, that may change soon, as Martin took a foul ball off of his throwing hand in yesterday&#8217;s game and seemed to be banged up a bit. He didn&#8217;t leave the game and is notorious for playing through injuries, so expecting this to be any different is not very wise.</p>
<p>Maile has appeared in a total of 57 games in the majors for the Rays over the past two seasons, putting up a slash line of .214/.234/.338. He is known for his good defensive skills behind the plate, with an average arm but above average framing, blocking, and receiving skills.</p>
<p>In Buffalo, the Bisons currently have three catchers on the roster in Juan Graterol, Alex Monsalve, and Mike Ohlman, so one would expect one of those guys to be moved down or placed on the inactive list for a bit to make room for Maile.</p>
<p>All in all, a solid move by the Blue Jays. All the minor league depth a team can get is good, and adding it for nothing is even better.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Recap: Rays 6, Blue Jays 2; At Least the Defense Was Good?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/13/recap-rays-6-blue-jays-2-at-least-the-defense-was-good/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Sep 2016 02:19:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6575</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays continued to struggle in the month of September, dropping the second game of a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 6-2. Tonight the issue was once again the lack of production from the offense, as they managed just nine hits and two walks in their faint attempt [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays continued to struggle in the month of September, dropping the second game of a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 6-2. Tonight the issue was once again the lack of production from the offense, as they managed just nine hits and two walks in their faint attempt to come out on top in this one. With Josh Donaldson missing his second straight game with what started as &#8220;rest&#8221; but has been bumped up to a &#8220;hip injury&#8221;, the bats remained silent. The only offense came off of the bat of Russell Martin, as he hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning, which, at the time, brought the Blue Jays to within one run at 3-2. However, the offense was unable to score for the rest of the night, leaving the bases loaded in the seventh, and going quietly in the eighth and ninth innings.</p>
<p>On the mound, Marcus Stroman was shaky, finishing the evening after the sixth inning, allowing three hits, four walks, and three earned runs. The big blow was a three-run home run off the bat of Alexei Ramirez in the fifth inning. In the bullpen, Joe Biagini came into the game in the seventh inning to relieve Stroman, and gave up his third home run of the season, all of which have come in his past four appearances. That gave the Rays a much needed insurance run, stretching their lead to 4-2. Brett Cecil pitched the eighth inning, allowing a leadoff single to Kevin Kiermaier, but nothing more as he retired the next three batters he faced. Matt Dermody started the ninth inning by allowing a Corey Dickerson single, and was then taken out in favour of Scott Feldman. Feldman fared no better, walking two and eventually allowing Dickerson to score on a fielder&#8217;s choice. Aaron Loup came in after Feldman, throwing a wild pitch that brought home a runner, and was replaced by Ryan Tepera, who was finally able to end the top of the ninth and allow the Blue Jays to get one last attempt at a comeback. They did not come back.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After Corey Dickerson doubled and Kevin Kiermaier walked in the fifth inning, the Rays had runners on first and second with one out for Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez proceeded to hit a three-run home run to open the scoring and give Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead. This increased the Rays&#8217; chances of winning by 27.9 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; best chance to win this game came in the seventh inning, when Kevin Pillar and Devon Travis reached on singles, and Jose Bautista walked to load the bases for Edwin Encarnacion. With two outs, Encarnacion worked the count to 2-2, but was unable to do anything, striking out on a 93.5 MPH fastball up in the zone. This lowered the Blue Jays&#8217; chances of winning the game by 13.4 percentage points.</p>
<h3>When Somebody Says It&#8217;s Not About the Defense, It&#8217;s About the Defense</h3>
<p>Earlier today, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/13/how-to-lose-first-place-in-the-al-east-in-12-days/" target="_blank">I wrote about</a> a few factors that have contributed to the Blue Jays losing their division lead recently, one of which was their lacklustre defense thus far in the month of September. Tonight, the defense was sparkling, turning three double plays behind the Blue Jays pitchers, two on the ground and one via the air. Marcus Stroman wasn&#8217;t very sharp with his command tonight, with four walks on the evening, and the ability to erase those added baserunners with some solid defense can go a long way towards having success, or not, as we saw tonight.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look to bounce back and win the series against the Rays tomorrow afternoon at the Rogers Centre. Marco Estrada (8-8, 3.68), will look to rebound from a disastrous start to the month of September, against Alex Cobb (0-0, 4.09) of the Rays. First pitch is set for 12:37 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Not Those Guys Again: Rays Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/12/not-those-guys-again-rays-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Sep 2016 14:07:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[division race]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[wild card]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6474</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays September 12 &#8211; 14 Written by Elie Waitzer and Greg Wisniewski The Tampa Bay rays have 82 losses already, guaranteeing them a losing season, and it’s only the 12th of September. This looks especially bad, since the rest of the division has no more than 66 losses apiece. Truly, the Rays are the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">September 12 &#8211; 14</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Elie Waitzer and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<p>The Tampa Bay rays have 82 losses already, guaranteeing them a losing season, and it’s only the 12<sup>th</sup> of September. This looks especially bad, since the rest of the division has no more than 66 losses apiece. Truly, the Rays are the doormat of the AL East, if only because the other teams are so unexpectedly good. The Jays only salvaged one win at the end of the series they played at the Trop, and without a series win against the Rays at home, the conversation about the Jays playoff chances will start to shift from “division winner” to “which wild card slot can they try to hang on to.”</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, September 12th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Francisco Liriano vs. Jake Odorizzi</strong></p>
<p>The last start that Liriano made against the Twins was a perfect example of &#8220;Bad Liriano.&#8221; Despite giving up just two hits, he walked four and exited after five innings having allowed four runs. His two appearances out of the bullpen are blemished only by a cheap home run that scraped over that low part of the wall in the Trop where Evan Longoria hit his famous walk-off dinger to send the Rays to the playoffs in 2011.</p>
<p>One interesting thing to watch for is whether Liriano sticks with his trademarked strategy of avoiding the zone like hot lava. The Rays have one of the higher chase rates in the league, but if his slider isn&#8217;t on we&#8217;re going to see a ton of walks instead of whiffs out of the zone. Another thing to note is that the Rays have four lefty bats in their regular lineup. Given how well Logan Morrison has been hitting lately, we could see Mikie Mahtook start in the outfield in place of Corey Dickerson against Liriano.</p>
<p>After weathering a mid-season slump, Odorizzi put together a sparkling August, going 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 31 K over 36.1 IP. Then Baltimore welcomed him to the month of September by tagging him for seven runs over four innings. He looked very hittable in his last start against Toronto in early August, but overall the Jays&#8217; bats have been handcuffed by Odorizzi, striking out 22 times and managing to score just nine runs over 23 IP. Odorizzi&#8217;s successes and failures this season have coincided with his walk rate, so the Jays need to get back to their patient ways and take advantage of his 43.3 Zone%.</p>
<h4>Tuesday, September 13th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs. Drew Smyly</strong></p>
<p>Stroman has taken some hard-luck losses recently, with the Jays offence going ice-cold when he takes the mound. Recently he&#8217;s struggled with efficiency, suddenly losing command of his fastball mid-inning and needing 20 or 30 pitches to get three outs. That&#8217;s not how a ground ball pitcher should be operating, and the Jays need him to conserve his pitch count to get deep into games. One thing to watch against the Rays is how Stroman&#8217;s slider fares. Tampa Bay&#8217;s hitters have the second-highest ISO against sliders in the league (.194), but also strikeout on the pitch at a 34.6 percent clip. It&#8217;ll be boom or bust for Stroman in Tampa Bay.</p>
<p>This is the most intriguing matchup of the series, as both Stroman and Smyly have the potential to either rack up a ton of strikeouts or give up a ton of home runs. Or both. Smyly has thrown more innings against Toronto than any other team this season, and it&#8217;s been up and down. An encouraging sign for the Jays is that Smyly&#8217;s velocity has been trending down all season long, with his slider in particular losing approximately 4 MPH since April.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, September 14th – 12:37 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada vs. Alex Cobb</strong></p>
<p>Don&#8217;t step on a crack or you&#8217;ll break your Marco&#8217;s back. The Jays&#8217; quality start machine has maintained that his back is not the issue, but just looking at his delivery you can tell there&#8217;s some discomfort. Over his last five starts he has posted a 7.71 ERA while walking 3.5 batters per nine innings and going more than six innings just once. His 2.18 ERA vs. Tampa Bay over nine games is the best of any current Jays starter, and although he was touched up for five runs in his last turn against them, it was on only seven hits. In fact, his BABIP over this horrible five start stretch is an astronomical .347, which suggests he&#8217;s due for some reverse in luck.</p>
<p>Cobb flummoxed the Jays in his first start back from the DL on Sep. 2, striking out seven and generating pathetically weak contact. He looked a little more mortal in his last start against the Yankees &#8211; surrendering two homers &#8211; but the Jays will need to go into this game with a smarter plan against Cobb. He&#8217;s essentially a fastball-changeup guy (though he does have a wicked curveball that he&#8217;ll throw every now and then), and the Jays have far and away the highest walk rate against changeups this season (8.8 percent). It&#8217;s obviously not as simple as that, but hopefully the fact that most of the lineup has seen Cobb&#8217;s stuff before will help.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The expanded roster for Tampa Bay includes the addition of Eddie Gamboa, Curt Casali, Ryan Garton, Justin Marks, Mikie Mahtook, Steve Geltz, Richie Shaffer, Chase Whitely, and the signing of Alexi Ramirez. Are any of these guys hot prospects on their way up? How about Richie Schaffer, who is 24 years old was the 25th overall pick in 2012? He plays the corner infield positions, but barring a Longoria injury, I can guess we might see him at first base or DH only.</p>
<p>We already covered the additions for the Blue Jays a week ago, but a friendly reminder that the precense of base stealing specialist Dalton Pompey and a third catcher available in Dioner Navarro or Josh Thole give John Gibbons a lot more flexibility on offense. The bullpen, too, is full of options, just not any remarkably good ones.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4>What about the Defense?</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays have been unexpectedly bad on defense over the last stretch off bad games. The errors don&#8217;t really tell the story, as catchable balls in the outfield have sailed over fielder&#8217;s heads or fallen in front, and infield positioning has lead to several booted balls that didn&#8217;t get converted into outs. A lot of these miscues don&#8217;t show up in the scorebook, but handing the runner two bases on a missed pickoff turns into a very good run scoring opportunity for the opponent. It&#8217;s hardly the only area the Jays have struggled, but if they start kicking the ball around against the Rays, the losses will likely just keep coming.</p>
<h4>Travis on Top of His Game</h4>
<p>As of this writing, Devon Travis is on a seven game hit streak, 15 for 35, for a .428 batting average. In fact, since his first multi hit game this year, back on June 13th (we&#8217;ll make this the arbitrary end of his &#8220;Spring Training&#8221; as he was rushed back from rehab) he&#8217;s been marvelous. He&#8217;s hit .337/.366/.519 for an .884 OPS. His tAV is a tidy .283. If he continues to be this tough to defend against, he&#8217;s the perfect leadoff hitter for the Jays in September.</p>
<p><strong>The Bullpen Battle</strong></p>
<p>The Blue Jays, of late, have been up against many situations where a late comeback would have been truly excellent. In the sweep of Minnesota, all of the games seemed like they hinged on the ineptness of the Twins bullpen. The potential good news is that while the Rays starters have a 4.16 DRA (11th best in baseball), their bullpen comes out at 4.61, 26th worst in baseball. The Jays rate a 17th (4.38) for their starters, and respectable 13th (4.06) for their relievers. So, unlike facing, say, New York and Cleveland, all is not lost when facing a deficit late in the game.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Tampa Bay Rays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Forsythe &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Kiermaier &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Evan Longoria &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Brad Miller &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Morrison &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Nick Franklin &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Steven Souza &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr. &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Corey Dickerson &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Bobby Wilson &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Dropping two of three from the Sox put the Jays in a tie for the wild card with Baltimore, while Tampa did Toronto a favour by keeping the Yankees at bay for another game. Maybe Tampa can do another favour by being jet-lagged for three days upon arriving in the T-dot. What does it all mean? By no means is this the end of the season, but Boston&#8217;s offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and Toronto&#8217;s is not. They&#8217;re certainly not hitting enough to overcome a pitching staff that is letting a half a dozen runs in every other night (which is a thing that is actually happening.) Some part of the Jays game needs to get locked back in, and the rest needs to follow along very quickly. This is the get it done league, as we have been told, and against a last place team in the middle of September, there&#8217;s no alternative.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Rays 3; Bullpen Bails Out Happ As Jays Salvage Finale</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/04/recap-blue-jays-5-rays-3-bullpen-bails-out-happ-as-jays-salvage-finale/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Sep 2016 20:53:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6279</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto and Tampa Bay completed the three game series on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field. The game seemed to follow the same pattern of the first two games: Jays score early, bats go silent and the pesky Rays start adding on runs. Today, however, the Jays were able to alter the script. The Blue Jays [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toronto and Tampa Bay completed the three game series on Sunday afternoon at Tropicana Field. The game seemed to follow the same pattern of the first two games: Jays score early, bats go silent and the pesky Rays start adding on runs. Today, however, the Jays were able to alter the script.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays sent JA Happ to the mound who struggled early giving up hits to the first three batters of the game, and two runs in the first inning. Happ would consistently get ahead of hitters, but was unable to put them away quickly. After getting two quick outs in the third he surrendered three straight singles before being pulled with the Jays down 3-1.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays were challenged with facing Chris Archer, who had a 0.94 WHIP in his last seven starts. He continued this dominant trend on Sunday, holding the Blue Jays offence in check for just over six innings, only allowing one run while striking out nine. Archer would leave the game after surrendering a one out single to Troy Tulowitzki and having thrown 105 pitches.</p>
<p>The Jays would take advantage of the change in pitchers and Brad Boxberger&#8217;s wildness to score two runs in the seventh thanks to a bases loaded single by Devon Travis. They would add two more runs off of Kevin Jepsen in the eighth to win the ballgame 5-3.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After Chris Archer was removed from the game the Jays feasted off of the weak Rays bullpen. They would tie in the seventh and  in the eighth take the lead, thanks to a two-run homer by Russell Martin. This blast increased the Blue Jays win expectancy by 24.3 percentage points. This was Martin&#8217;s 17th home run of the season and 10th since August 1st.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the seventh inning, after the Blue Jays had tied the game with a two-run single by Travis, Edwin Encarnacion came to the plate with the bases loaded and two out. He proceeded to pop out to the first baseman, Brad Miller, to end the inning. This lowered the win expectancy by 11.9 percentage points. It was a rough day for Encarnacion as he stranded five baserunners in the game.</p>
<h3><em>BULLPEN SHUTS THE DOOR</em></h3>
<p>Manager John Gibbons had to dip into the bullpen in the third inning with two out and two runners on. September call up, Danny Barnes, and deadline acquisition, Scott Feldman, would provide 2.1 innings of scoreless relief. This allowed the offence to battle back and eventually take the lead in the top of the eighth. The &#8220;big three&#8221; of Joaquin Benoit, Jason Grilli, and Roberto Osuna would shut the door to preserve the lead. Overall the Blue Jays bullpen final line was 6.1 innings, two hits, no runs, no walks, and nine strikeouts.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Toronto leaves Tampa and heads to New York for a three game series to complete the road trip. The Blue Jays will play a Monday afternoon game sending the knuckleballer RA Dickey (9-13, 4.43) against Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka (11-4, 3.12). First pitch at 1:05 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Rays 7, Blue Jays 5; Jays Lose Another Tough One In Tampa</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/03/recap-rays-7-blue-jays-5-jays-lose-another-tough-one-in-tampa/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Sep 2016 01:44:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6254</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays played game two of their three game series Saturday night at Tropicana Field, and the script was reminiscent of game one: Blue Jays score first, bats go silent, Jays pitchers have one bad inning, and the Jays add runs late but come up short. Blake Snell threw [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays played game two of their three game series Saturday night at Tropicana Field, and the script was reminiscent of game one: Blue Jays score first, bats go silent, Jays pitchers have one bad inning, and the Jays add runs late but come up short.</p>
<p>Blake Snell threw a lot of pitches early in the game, but was able to grind out six innings against a Jays offence that couldn&#8217;t get much going. His final line was six innings, two hits, one run, two walks and seven strikeouts. The Blue Jays starter, Marco Estrada, was in complete control through five innings, but the wheels came off in the sixth. He couldn&#8217;t retire a batter and left the game down 5-1. Estrada&#8217;s final line was five innings, seven hits, five runs, two walks and six strikeouts.</p>
<p>The Rays would add on two more in the seventh and the Blue Jays would mount a comeback in the ninth scoring four runs but would fall just short. Tampa would win game two, 7-5.</p>
<h3><em>TOP PLAY OF THE GAME BY WPA</em></h3>
<p>After cruising through the first five innings, Marco Estrada couldn&#8217;t record an out in the sixth. After a bloop infield single by Bobby Wilson, followed by a sharp single by Jays killer Logan Forsythe and a bunt single by Kevin Kiermaier, the bases were loaded with none out. Evan Longoria singled to left to drive in a run that tied the game at one, and increased the win expectancy by 13 percentage points.</p>
<h3><em>BOTTOM PLAY OF THE GAME BY WPA</em></h3>
<p>In the top of the ninth and the Jays down 7-1 they would mount a comeback. Tampa reliever, Enny Romero, would enter the game and proceeded to walk four batters and give up a single while recording two outs, the Jays were within three. Alex Colome, the closer, would enter the game and give up an RBI single to Jose Bautista to bring the tying run to the plate. However, Edwin Encarnacion would flyout to end the game, it would reduce the Jays win expectancy by 6.8 percentage points and end the game.</p>
<h3><em>BIAGINI FINALLY GIVES UP A HOME RUN</em></h3>
<p>Joe Biagini, the Rule V pick from the San Francisco Giants, has been impressive for the Blue Jays all season in any role that manager John Gibbons has asked him to pitch. However, Rays outfielder Kiermaier hit a two-run homer off Biagini in the seventh to extend the Rays lead to 7-1. What was most notable about that home run was it was the first home run surrendered by the young right-hander, and it took over five months to happen.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kiermaier&#39;s home run was the first one Biagini has allowed this season. That was a span of 56 1/3 innings. Hard to believe for a Rule V guy.</p>
<p>&mdash; Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/gregorMLB/status/772230944837234688">September 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<h3><strong><em>ROOKIE DEBUT</em></strong></h3>
<p>Lefty reliever Matt Dermody made his major league debut in the eighth inning of tonights game. He recorded his first strikeout but was hit hard surrendering a double and a single, while recording a loud out to centre field. He left the game with runners on the corners and two out. Ryan Tepera got the final out of the inning to strand the runners. In the end, the pitcher who started the season in Single-A had a scoreless first appearance.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Toronto and Tampa Bay will wrap up their three games series tomorrow afternoon and the Blue Jays will try to avoid the sweep. Toronto will send lefty JA Happ (17-4, 3.23), winless in his last two starts, against Chris Archer (8-17, 4.10), who has a 0.92 WHIP over his last seven starts. First pitch 1:10 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Rays 8, Blue Jays 3; Stone Hands Sink Jays In Opener</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/02/recap-rays-8-blue-jays-3-stone-hands-sink-jays-in-opener/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Sep 2016 02:26:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6239</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Jays played a sloppy game against the Rays in the series opener in Tropicana Field, losing 8-3. Toronto was unable to field the ball cleanly all game and it was largely their defense which lost them the game. The offense didn&#8217;t produce either. Donaldson and Encarnacion hit back-to-back doubles in the first which showed [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Jays played a sloppy game against the Rays in the series opener in Tropicana Field, losing 8-3. Toronto was unable to field the ball cleanly all game and it was largely their defense which lost them the game. The offense didn&#8217;t produce either. Donaldson and Encarnacion hit back-to-back doubles in the first which showed promise for the how the game would turn out but it was anything but. Stroman, who looked good through the first few frames, began to miss his spots and throw the ball over the heart of the plate. Tampa hasn&#8217;t been tremendous this year, but they don&#8217;t miss meatballs down the middle, as Logan Morrison did against Marcus Stroman tonight. All in all, a bad game for the Jays and they have a chance to win the series by taking the next two in a row at the Trop<em>. </em></p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The play that really broke the game open was Logan Morrison&#8217;s two-run homer in the sixth inning off of Marcus Stroman. The game was tied prior to the ball clearing the fence. Morrison cranked a sinker from Stroman which stayed up about thigh-high but sat right on the inside half of the plate. Logan put a picture-perfect swing on it and the Rays never relinquished the lead after. That home run increased the Rays&#8217; chance of winning by 0.167 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The worst play of the night is awarded to Melvin Upton Jr. In the sixth inning, the Jays had something going with men on first and second, albeit with two outs. Upton grounded back straight to the pitcher, Danny Farquhar, who quite literally sprinted off the mound toward first base. It wasn&#8217;t a terrible play by WPA standards, only decreasing the Jays chance of winning by -0.064. Having said that, it would be nice for Upton to put together some good at-bats. The results have been better for Melvin lately but he swings at too many borderline pitches that he can&#8217;t do much with even if he connects.</p>
<h3>Sloppy Game</h3>
<p>That may have been the sloppiest game I&#8217;ve watched the Jays play all year. In the third inning, the Rays had a man on first base when Kevin Kiermaier hit a groundball at Devon Travis. Travis had to move to his left and attempted to get the lead runner at second; in his haste he bobbled the ball and both runners were safe. Donaldson, who could be compared to a vacuum cleaner, allowed a ball to pinball in between his legs tonight. The Jays were even having trouble connecting with the cut off man. Michael Saunders fielded a ball in right-centre and threw it back into the infield. He missed both Travis and Tulowitzki, with the ball eventually residing at Donaldson&#8217;s feet. I&#8217;m not sure what came over the Jays, who are usually quite sure-handed defensively, but I am glad it all happened in one game. Hopefully, that type of performance is behind the club.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>This was the first game of a three game series against the Rays in the lovely Trop. The Blue Birds were beaten down tonight, but they have a chance to take flight again tomorrow at 6 pm ET, in a game that will have Marco Estrada facing off against Chris Archer.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Rays 9, Blue Jays 2; Everything Goes Wrong in Ugly Loss to Tampa</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/09/recap-rays-9-blue-jays-2-everything-goes-wrong-in-ugly-loss-to-tampa/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Aug 2016 02:04:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Marco Estrada has been stellar this season. I&#8217;d be comfortable saying he hasn&#8217;t had one game where he has been truly terrible. Until tonight. It just wasn&#8217;t working for him. The final line doesn&#8217;t look too bad. Five innings pitched while only giving up three runs is fine. However, the process to get to those numbers [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Marco Estrada has been stellar this season. I&#8217;d be comfortable saying he hasn&#8217;t had one game where he has been truly terrible. Until tonight. It just wasn&#8217;t working for him. The final line doesn&#8217;t look too bad. Five innings pitched while only giving up three runs is fine. However, the process to get to those numbers were ugly, as he walked four batters and allowed seven hits.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays got on the board in the bottom of the fifth thanks to a sacrifice fly by Melvin Upton Jr. and an RBI base hit from the red hot Devon Travis. They were unable to add more at the time as Jose Bautista hit into a double play with runners on first and second.</p>
<p>Estrada left after five innings, giving way to Danny Barnes, who finally looked hittable, allowing four of the six batters he faced to reach, leading to two Tampa Bay runs. However, the Blue Jays were intent on getting those runs back, hitting back-to-back singles to lead off the bottom of the sixth inning followed by a walk drawn by Russell Martin. Unfortunately, Troy Tulowitzki popped out, Michael Saunders struck out, and Justin Smoak fouled out to end the threat, and keep the score at 5-2.</p>
<p>After that, Scott Feldman came in and the Rays decided they didn&#8217;t want this game to be close anymore, scoring four runs in the seventh inning. From there, it was just another blowout, with the final score being 9-2 in favor of the Rays. If you didn&#8217;t watch this game, you are very lucky, unless you&#8217;re a Rays fan, then congratulations on the victory!</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The top play of the game came in the top of the sixth inning with one out and a runner on first base. Evan Longoria stepped up to the plate to face Danny Barnes, and promptly hit a long double to centre field to score Kevin Kiermaier. This extended the Rays&#8217; lead to 5-2, and increased their chances of winning by 13.4 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays had already put two runners across in the fifth inning when Jose Bautista stepped up to the plate with runners on first and second. Bautista was not able to cash in, hitting into a double play and lowering the Blue Jays&#8217; chances of winning by 13.3 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Feldman Gives up Four, but Not Six Runs</h3>
<p>Scott Feldman blew this one open for the Rays, allowing four runs in two innings pitched. However, it was almost a lot more, as in the top of the seventh inning, Mikie Mahtook hit a soft dribbler in front of the plate that Russell Martin fielded. Mahtook proceeded to run outside of the base line, meaning that when Martin threw the ball away and two runs came into score, he was called out and the runners were sent back to their respective bases.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays offense scored seven runs on Monday night, but despite many declaring that they had broken out of their slump, they fell right back into it tonight. They registered just six hits and took just three walks, leading to a total of two runs, obviously not enough to win many ballgames. They will be fine, just like they were fine after struggling for most of the first two months of the season, but with the AL East race so tight, it would be ideal if they could get it together sooner rather than later.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look to bounce back and win the series tomorrow night at 7:07 PM ET behind LHP J.A. Happ (15-3, 3.09). On the mound for the Rays will be rookie LHP Blake Snell (3-4, 2.95).</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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