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	<title>Toronto &#187; Steve Pearce</title>
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		<title>Why Steve Pearce is the Odd Man Out</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/16/why-steve-pearce-is-the-odd-man-out/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Jan 2018 11:43:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14913</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There’s work to be done in the outfield. We all know it. The Blue Jays have publicly said that they’re comfortable with the group that they currently have slotted into left, right and center, but there’s a big difference between being comfortable and being satisfied. The Jays have done well to shore up some of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There’s work to be done in the outfield. We all know it. The Blue Jays have publicly said that they’re comfortable with the group that they currently have slotted into left, right and center, but there’s a big difference between being comfortable and being satisfied.</p>
<p>The Jays have done well to shore up some of their most pressing depth issues with the acquisitions of Aldemys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte, but the outfield still isn’t up to par for a team that insists on competing. As it stands, Kevin Pillar will man center barring an out-of-nowhere trade. Teoscar Hernandez seemed to have the inside track on the right field gig but the newly-signed Curtis Granderson might push him for playing time. Left holds more questions at the moment, and it’s a familiar feeling considering where we were all at a winter ago.</p>
<p>Steve Pearce was signed as some insurance around the infield and an occasional help in left. A little versatility, the ability to crush southpaws, and maybe he could catch some injury luck if he’s not an everyday player. Good, solid. Things rarely work out as planned, however, and he wound up forming a platoon with lefty Ezequiel Carrera. Pearce got hurt again, but still spent parts of 85 of his 92 games out in left field. Now, he finds himself in something resembling no man’s land.</p>
<p>Of course, this wasn’t how things were supposed to go. Justin Smoak showed up in All-Star form, meaning that he deservedly took all the at bats at first base. Kendrys Morales then soaked up all the opportunities at DH. Pearce feeling the squeeze is a perfectly fine tradeoff if Smoak is going to hit 30+ homers every year, but it’s certainly not how the team intended to use him. With both of those players entrenched in those same spots, Pearce has nowhere to go. Morales is unlikely to generate much interest on the trade market and Smoak won&#8217;t be going anywhere after last season. The only real spot for Pearce is back out in left field, and that&#8217;s if Granderson doesn&#8217;t seep into that spot too.</p>
<p>For simplicity&#8217;s sake, let&#8217;s say that Granderson is only up for consideration in right at the moment &#8212; Pearce&#8217;s roadblocks remain. While the Solarte acquisition is more about helping the infield, it doesn’t rule out some games in the outfield for the switch-hitting utility player, though it’s fair to question whether the team should go down that path. Solarte has played left at the Major League level before, but hadn’t taken a turn there since 2014 before playing there in the most recent World Baseball Classic. That doesn’t mean that the Jays won’t at least entertain the idea, however, and the team probably prefers him to Pearce overall if we’re talking about potential bench pieces. A guy who can play all over the diamond is of more use in a bench spot than someone who can really only man two positions and the DH.</p>
<p>It seems like a move of some sort is on the horizon. Pearce’s positions of strength look like redundancies on the current iteration of the roster, and the only spot for him happens to be the least-optimal place for him to play. That’s less than ideal in terms of asset management.</p>
<p>So with Pearce staring down the barrel of another year as a full-time left fielder and the team attempting to acquire for a potential challenger for that playing time, what are the options? And what are the Jays really trying to do this season?</p>
<p>If they’re genuine about trying to win, a Pearce/Carrera platoon likely will not cut it. There are plenty of other spots on this roster that are pretty high variance, and while this pair has a little higher floor than you might think, it’s just not going to boost the team to an overall level where they should be content with things as they stand. You’re counting on a lot of things going right if Pearce and Carrera are the ones holding left field down for a playoff team.</p>
<p>Ideally, another free agent reshuffles the deck in the outfield. A guy like Lorenzo Cain would be great but the Jays could find a second moderately priced, full-time outfielder on the free agent market without much trouble at this point in the offseason. Similarly, the team could be working the phones and nab an outfielder on the trade market. Not necessarily a world-beater, and not necessarily as a return for Pearce himself.</p>
<p>The Jays are lucky in the sense that Pearce is on a solid contract that allows them to look at a few different options. He’s owed $6.25 million this year before hitting free agency next winter. To make a long story short, he’s a solid player on an affordable deal; the type of player that can fit on just about any roster. Especially one that doesn’t happen to have major obstacles at first and DH. He’s not the most appealing player to trade, but he does have value and wouldn’t cause a payroll overhaul for whoever would acquire him. High-floor, low-ceiling guys can almost always find a team interested in their services.</p>
<p>Besides, what could the Jays reasonably do with Pearce right now, let alone if they acquire another full-time outfielder? After the Granderson signing, he&#8217;s now got another body to contend with for playing time. With Pearce, Carrera and Hernandez presumably battling for two spots, it&#8217;s worth asking where each player ranks as an organizational priority as well as which of the trio provides the least utility as a fourth outfielder. The Jays shouldn&#8217;t fill up four roster spots for two outfield platoons, so he might have a little breathing room from that perspective given Hernandez&#8217;s remaining options. Perhaps that was an impetus for the Granderson deal, as the veteran could allow Hernandez to work out any kinks in AAA if he doesn&#8217;t win a job in Dunedin. Even then, the clock is ticking and it&#8217;s clear that Hernandez is gunning for a full-time slot this year. Between his own limitations in the outfield and the guys ahead of him in the infield, Pearce would have incredibly limited opportunities for playing time while also clogging the bench. That doesn&#8217;t sound like a good fit for a front office that&#8217;s done well to increase the strength of the team&#8217;s depth.</p>
<p>On the other hand, keeping a Carrera/Pearce platoon wouldn&#8217;t be the end of the world if Hernandez does get sent down – as our own Dave Church pointed out, the duo <a title="Angles In The Outfield: How the Jays Can Survive With Their Current Outfield" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/" target="_blank">nearly combined for enough WARP to put the Jays at a league-average level last season</a> – it’s that it would lock the team into a middling solution at a position where potential upgrades exist, with little room for tangible upgrades elsewhere. There’s nothing wrong with raising the team’s baseline marginally through low-risk moves, but in a year that’s already filled with uncertainties it just doesn’t move the needle much.</p>
<p>Holding onto Pearce, assuming no outside alternative swoops in to save the day, does prevent a number of prospects from being thrown to the wolves (as does the Granderson signing), and he’s not on a deal that can’t be moved midseason if someone lights up Buffalo and forces the team’s hand. I’ll also reiterate that he’s a solid player. But it also signals a concession; that the team wasn’t willing to sacrifice future flexibility, in terms of either dollars or prospects, to take this group to the next level in an abbreviated window. That might be (and probably is) the right call. But if so, then there are a number of other players who should be on the block. Whether or not the team moves on from Pearce won’t be the delineator between rebuilding and contention, but it will be revealing in the sense that we’ll know which outfield market prices the organization deems too rich for their blood.</p>
<p>A trade of Pearce would allow the team to clear a small logjam and provide them another avenue to pursue an upgrade, whether that’s in left or somewhere else on the roster. Standing pat just doesn’t jive with what’s been said about the team’s plans for the upcoming season. If you’re looking for someone to offload who won’t need a parting gift attached, Pearce looks like the guy.</p>
<p>I like Steve Pearce. He’s a good player on a good contract who can be a very helpful glue guy on a successful team. Right now, he and his contract give the team some options. This is far from a call to trade him, but something’s got to give. While some of it hinges on whether or not the Jays can pick an adequate outfielder off the free agent pile, it’s just hard to see how things don’t change given the overlapping skillsets currently on the roster.</p>
<p>Steve Pearce just appears to be the odd man out.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration with Ezequiel Carrera; Raise Floor in Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/12/blue-jays-avoid-arbitration-with-ezequiel-carrera-raise-floor-in-outfield/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Jan 2018 14:33:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14903</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Thursday night, the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera on a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. The Blue Jays, a file-and-trial team, have a 1:00 pm ET deadline on Friday by which they must either reach an agreement or exchange figures with all of their arbitration eligible players. After this [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Thursday night, the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera on a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. The Blue Jays, a file-and-trial team, have a 1:00 pm ET deadline on Friday by which they must either reach an agreement or exchange figures with all of their arbitration eligible players. After this deadline the club will only consider multi-year extensions in lieu of seeing the arbitration process through.</p>
<p>The one-year, $1.9 million contract signed by Carrera makes sense in a vacuum, and in fact is exactly what he was <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html">projected to receive</a> by MLB Trade Rumors back in October. The outfielder made $1.2 million when first eligible for arbitration last winter and the $700,000 raise is fair and reflective of his .282/.356/.408 performance in 131 games played in 2017.</p>
<p>Carrera has been worth 1.6 WARP over 827 plate appearances (1.2 WARP/600) across three seasons in Toronto, which cements him in the “good bench player but not someone you should rely upon as a starter” category. What makes this signing slightly unsettling for some Blue Jays fans, however, is that alongside Kevin Pillar and Steve Pearce, Carrera makes three outfielders signed to, or soon to be signed to, major league deals. The outfield still needs help on the top end and this agreement doesn’t preclude a run at the highly sought after Lorenzo Cain, but it could potentially take away opportunities in the short term from a quartet of young outfielders.</p>
<p>For arguments sake, let’s say the Blue Jays sign Lorenzo Cain and he agrees to be the everyday right fielder. With Kevin Pillar’s defensive prowess buying him another season in center, left field falls into the hands of another Pearce and Carrera platoon, with the optionable contracts of Teoscar Hernandez, Dalton Pompey, Dwight Smith, and Anthony Alford all bound for the minor leagues. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.</p>
<p>At this very moment, given that we simply haven’t seen enough consistent performance at the highest level to blindly depend on them, I don’t think anyone would argue that a bit of seasoning in Buffalo or New Hampshire would hurt any of the four. But what if Teoscar Hernandez spends the month of March crushing balls around Florida Auto Exchange Stadium and looks a whole lot like the guy who had 14 extra base hits and a .302 TAv in September? What if Anthony Alford is an on-base machine and appears to be the ideal solution to the revolving door of leadoff hitters the club struggled with last season?</p>
<p>What this Carrera signing does is raise the floor for the outfield jobs and almost perfectly encapsulates the <em>modus operandi</em> of the Shapiro and Atkins tenure: protect from the replacement level through low risk options without suppressing the <i>ceiling</i> of the roster. Having Carrera in place for $1.9 million pushes Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford to earn the job and supplant the veteran, rather than running the risk of an under prepared rookie getting the job by default. If the best case scenario occurs and space needs to be made available for Hernandez and/or Alford in the short term, one or both of Pearce and Carrera can be sent to the bench, or to another organization altogether thanks to their cost-effective contracts.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Three Biggest Swings of 2017</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/12/the-three-biggest-swings-of-2017/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Jan 2018 11:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14879</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s cold out where I live, and the large plains of white snow outside my window are about as far away from green infield grass as you can get. I keep opening tabs on my browser with the promise that spring training is only days away. At this point, especially in this glacially slow-moving offseason [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s cold out where I live, and the large plains of white snow outside my window are about as far away from green infield grass as you can get. I keep opening tabs on my browser with the promise that spring training is only days away. At this point, especially in this glacially slow-moving offseason (with apologies to all the Jays Bruce fans out there), many folks are looking forward to try and divine what 2018 might bring. I, for one, agree with Yoda when it comes to trying to predict the next season: “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future..”</p>
<p>So instead, I choose to look back. Although the 2017 season did not end as planned for our blue birds, there were still some standout moments. The fields were green, the air was warm, and the sun was bright.</p>
<p>Now, although a player&#8217;s ability to be good &#8220;in the clutch&#8221; varies from year to year, there are definitely clutch situations in many games throughout the 162-game schedule, and on any given night, any player can be the one to come through. We have a fairly straightforward way to measure how much of a difference a particular plate appearance had on the outcome of a game. It&#8217;s called <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/" target="_blank">Win Probability Added</a>, or WPA, and if you click the link, it explains what percentage of a team&#8217;s win belongs to a particular player or plate appearance. Let&#8217;s look at the three most dramatic performances in terms of WPA in 2017, arguably the most exciting performances of the year.</p>
<h3>Third place: Kendrys Morales, July 27th &#8211; WPA: .538</h3>
<p>Any WPA over .50 is impressive, since a team begins a game with about a 50 percent chance of winning. You might say, then, that Morales&#8217; contributions alone were enough to win the game. That&#8217;s an oversimplification, though, so let&#8217;s dive in and see what exactly Morales accomplished to move the needle on this 8—4 Jays win. After each play, I will list the WPA changed by the result of each of his plate appearances.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the first, he struck out (-.03 WPA). Then, in the bottom of the fifth, he led off the inning with a first-pitch home run (.13 WPA) that cut Oakland&#8217;s lead to 3-2. In the bottom of the sixth, he grounded out (-0.04 WPA).</p>
<p>Morales returned to the plate in the ninth inning, facing Blake Treinen, the Jays in a 4—3 hole. The at-bat unfolded as follows: Morales swung through a 97-mph sinker, laid off a 98-mph sinker outside, and took a changeup low. Now behind in the count, Treinen thought he had the answer for Kendrys, rearing back for a little extra and delivering a 99-mph sinker to almost the same location as his first pitch.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-july-27.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14880" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-july-27.gif" alt="morales july 27" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>It was, from Treinen&#8217;s perspective, the wrong answer.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/morales-homer-ties-the-game/c-1657047683?tid=69808956" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p>That&#8217;s a game tying home run in the bottom of the ninth, increasing the Jay&#8217;s odds of winning by .43 WPA!</p>
<p>And here&#8217;s why baseball is so much fun: If I asked you about this game you would probably only remember the last play of the game, when Steve Pearce hit a grand slam to seal the 8—4 victory. That play was 34 percent of a win—not quite as large an impact as when Morales kept the game alive one inning earlier.</p>
<h3>Second Place: Kendrys Morales, May 5th &#8211; WPA: .715</h3>
<p>Yes, it&#8217;s Morales doing the heavy lifting once again, this time versus the Rays on the road in Tampa Bay. Here&#8217;s how his game went: a strikeout in the second (-.02 WPA) and a double in the fifth (.06), then a two-run home run (.26) in the seventh, driving in Russell Martin and tying the game 3-3. And in his final plate appearance in the eighth, Morales hit another homer, this time driving in Kevin Pillar as well as Martin. That second home run was worth .42 WPA. He worked hard for this one, hitting it out on the sixth pitch of the at-bat.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-may-5th.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14883" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-may-5th.gif" alt="morales may 5th" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>As an aside, they say you usually only get one good pitch to hit in an plate appearance. Pitch number five there is an 89-mph slider. Nobody throws a belt-high slider middle-in intentionally, so that was mistake number one. Morales fouled it off. Jumbo Diaz is a generous man, it seems, and he got a lot of the plate with the 99-mph fastball that followed. I wonder if Blake Treinen somehow misread the scouting report on Morales, which probably reads &#8220;He doesn&#8217;t care how hard you are throwing the ball.&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/morales-go-ahead-three-run-hr/c-1356377783?tid=6479266" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p>This drive turned the game from a 4—4 tie into a 7—4 Blue Jays lead, and Justin Smoak added a solo shot off the next pitcher the Rays brought in, proving that it&#8217;s possible for good things to happen at the Trop. Once in a while, at least.</p>
<h3>First Place: Steve Pearce, July 30th &#8211; WPA: .852</h3>
<p>The WPA list is topped by none other than Steve &#8220;Beers&#8221; Pearce. His performance on July 30th was nothing short of amazing, within the single-game top ten for 2017 across all of baseball.</p>
<p>It started off innocuously enough, with a first inning flyout (-.02 WPA), then a double in the third (.07). This hit was reviewed to see if it was a home run, according to the play log, but the original call stood and the Blue Jays lost the challenge. (Shocking, I know.) He followed with a walk in the sixth (.02 WPA) and a lineout in the eighth (-.01). Had the game ended there, it would have been one of the more pedestrian performances of his career.</p>
<p>By the time the bottom of the ninth rolled around, the Jays were down by six, and Pearce was due up a distant eighth. This is the wonderful thing about WPA—it rewards you most when everything is on the line.</p>
<p>Here is how the bottom of the ninth unfolded. Goins walked. Pillar homered, and by this point, it was already obvious something weird was going on. A Rob Refsnyder double chased Brooks Pounders, and in came Bud Norris; Carrera singled and Martin singled, scoring Refsnyder. Smoak grounded out, then Morales walked to load the bases again. That&#8217;s seven batters and only one out, and the score was now 10-7.</p>
<p>At this point, down three in the bottom of the ninth, the Blue Jays only had a 21 percent chance of winning the game. Time for Steve Pearce to see what he could do.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/pearce-july-30.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14885" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/pearce-july-30.gif" alt="pearce july 30" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>For whatever reason, Norris started the at-bat with two cutters. Neither of these pitches were close enough to the zone to tempt Steve. I assume he wasn&#8217;t trying to get too cute and was just trying to hit the fastball. Norris tops out around 95 mph, and there&#8217;s no reason to expect he won&#8217;t try to use one at some point. A 2-0 count seems like when you&#8217;d really be ready for a fastball, and, sure enough, Norris threw the fastball. The problem with this particular fastball, of course, might have been that it was exactly three feet off the ground, and probably would have traveled over the point of the plate had it been allowed to get that far. Pearce likes meatballs. The ball found the seats instead of the catcher&#8217;s glove.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a walkoff grand slam! And yes, I already talked about Pearce hitting a walkoff grand slam in the other entry. This isn&#8217;t that one at all, of course. This is three whole days later. I know I&#8217;ve had this conversation on Twitter, and elsewhere, but hitting a walkoff grand slam is pretty much the only thing you imagine when you&#8217;re ten years old and trying to learn how to self-hit. There you are, in the schoolyard, or out in a dusty lot, talking yourself through the situation: bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, down by three. Steve Pearce lived that. At the highest level of competition that his sport has to offer, he delivered on a childhood fantasy. Maybe next time, Mr. Pearce, it will be in the playoffs.</p>
<p>Pearce, HR, (.79).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1668927183" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><em> Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Angles In The Outfield: How the Jays Can Survive With Their Current Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2018 11:21:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14851</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention: Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see if there’s a way to upgrade or complement in our outfield.”</p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/949781617106546688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The focus from some was on the first part of the quote, where Atkins said they felt like they could start the season with the outfielders they have. While he goes on to say they do want to upgrade, it was the first half that drew the most attention and the most ire from fans.</p>
<p>Given the state of the Jays outfield, that reaction is understandable. There are no stars in this bunch and not much in the way of established regulars. Kevin Pillar is probably the best of them and that&#8217;s not a great spot for a team that has designs on contending. Pillar is a fine defender in centre field, but has established himself as a below average hitter at this point. Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s career year still had him just under 1 WARP in 131 games, Steve Pearce hits well, defends poorly and can&#8217;t stay healthy, and Teoscar Hernandez, while a solid prospect, was deemed expendable by the World Series champion Astros. There are warts to be found here.</p>
<p>Assuming no upgrades (or that new Jay Yangervis Solarte won&#8217;t play the outfield for the first time since 2014), could the Jays enter the season with the outfield they have? Could they succeed? Let&#8217;s look at some scenarios where they could live, or even thrive, with the outfielders they have currently.</p>
<h3>And Teoscar Goes To&#8230; The Rogers Centre And Hits Dingers All The Time</h3>
<p>Even if Teoscar Hernandez wasn&#8217;t the brightest light in the Astros system, he was still a worthwhile prospect close to the major leagues &#8211; something the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t have a lot of when they acquired him. There were concerns: not fast enough to play centre field, not enough of a bat to play the corner, and he struck out a lot. But, again, the Jays weren&#8217;t in a position to be choosy. That they got an actual prospect for Francisco Liriano was amazing enough.</p>
<p>Hernandez had a solid showing for the Jays after being called up late in the season, hitting 8 home runs in just 95 at-bats. He did strike out 36 times, a concerning number for that amount of at-bats. And there&#8217;s the old adage about not believing anything you see in April and September.</p>
<p>Still, Hernandez is mostly a blank slate at the major league level, someone on whom the Jays can project hope and see the potential for something greater than what he&#8217;s shown so far. He COULD be a star. He could also struggle, as some prospects do in the their first actual shot at the majors. There&#8217;s a wide range of possible outcomes.</p>
<p>The other point to make is that Hernandez would essentially be replacing Jose Bautista. On the whole, it&#8217;s unlikely that Hernandez will ever get close to Bautista&#8217;s accomplishments in his career as a Blue Jay. But the 2017 version of Jose Bautista had an awful season, with a stat line of .203/.308/.366, good for a tAV of only .237. That&#8217;s not a terribly high bar to clear.</p>
<p>So we can say that Hernandez, given a wide open space in the lineup, could easily be better than the man he&#8217;s replacing. He could be a star. But what if he scuffles? What if he bounces between the majors and AAA? How else could the Jays outfield work as it is?</p>
<h3>A Carrera/Pearce Platoon Holds Serve</h3>
<p>There&#8217;s very little exciting about a potential Carrera/Pearce platoon in left field. But it could be worse. The 2017 Jays opened the season with both Carrera AND Pearce in the lineup. The theory was that Pearce would split his time between first base and left field and Carrera would start some in left while backing up in centre and right. We know how that went: Pearce got hurt, Justin Smoak became an all-star, and Carrera had a career year.</p>
<p>Carrera and Pearce are known quantities to Jays fans by this point, but that can be a good thing. They do have some contrasting skills. Pearce provides some right-handed power. Carrera bats left-handed, makes some contact, gets on base, and doesn&#8217;t completely embarrass himself in the field. There&#8217;s an easy platoon in that.</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need a lot from the left field position. 2 WARP would have been good enough for 16th in baseball among left fielders last season and Carrera and Pearce combined for nearly that between them. So while it&#8217;s unlikely that Carrera or Pearce will suddenly find another gear, it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need them to be that much better.</p>
<h3>The Rest Of The Lineup Improves</h3>
<p>This is the most likely scenario. When the Jays&#8217; lineup was a juggernaut in 2015, mauling opponents night in and night out, it was at least in part due to the depth of the lineup. Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson were the headliners, but them being great made it easier for the supporting cast to contribute. And when October rolled around, having the depth they had made it easier for them to carry the bat of someone like Ryan Goins, who hit only in theory during that playoff run.</p>
<p>When we look at the Jays&#8217; potential 2017 lineup, there are a lot of hitters. Donaldson and Smoak are the headliners, with Devon Travis and Russell Martin still able to bring value with the bat. Troy Tulowitzki is a question mark, and Kendrys Morales may have disappointed last season, but there&#8217;s pedigree in those names as guys who have been good previously and could potentially be that good again.</p>
<p>Another help for the lineup: the Jays are better insulated against injury. The acquisitions of Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte give them better depth if someone gets hurt again. There will be no more seeing Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins anchor the bottom of the order. Solarte could even be an outfield option, having spent time there in 2014.</p>
<p>So there&#8217;s a lot of ways the Jays could well stand pat with what they have and be fine in 2017. While the current outfield situation isn&#8217;t ideal, the Jays aren&#8217;t short of options. Ross Atkins is absolutely right: while the Jays should look to upgrade, they could absolutely start the season with what they have and be fine.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Underrated 2017 Feel Good Story: Ezequiel Carrera Excelling</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/27/underrated-feel-good-story-of-the-year-ezequiel-carrera-excelling/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Sep 2017 10:46:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13587</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s been an interesting season for Jays outfielder Ezequiel Carrera. He began the year as the strong side of a left field platoon with Steve Pearce, mostly by default: the Jays hadn&#8217;t acquired anyone better to supplant the career backup. But a funny thing happened on the way to Pearce eventually assuming the full-time role. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been an interesting season for Jays outfielder Ezequiel Carrera. He began the year as the strong side of a left field platoon with Steve Pearce, mostly by default: the Jays hadn&#8217;t acquired anyone better to supplant the career backup. But a funny thing happened on the way to Pearce eventually assuming the full-time role. Pearce struggled and then got hurt, and Carrera had a solid season, much better than anyone could have hoped. He will finish the year with career highs in most offensive categories. He&#8217;s third among Jays regulars in tAV and OBP, and fifth on the team in WARP. Though no one would mistake him for an elite defender, he has played all three outfield positions, giving the Jays some flexibility on a team with far too many slow-footed defenders.</p>
<p>That Carrera has been benched probably isn&#8217;t a commentary on his performance, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/04/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-red-sox-4/">as we explained previously</a>. It&#8217;s a names and numbers game. In a meaningless September, the prospects are going to play. The established stars are going to play. Carrera, a journeyman in the midst of his finest season, is neither. At 30, there&#8217;s probably no higher ceiling for him to reach, and no fans to appease by writing his name in the lineup every day.</p>
<p>Zeke&#8217;s career year is a feather in his cap, and could potentially have been a fun story in a more successful Jays year. One could look at him and see a fringe major leaguer, making good after being written off again and again, grabbing hold of a regular role despite the doubts and questions that have constantly surrounded him. The Jays have always tried to move on, to find a better regular to supplant him, but Carrera has always found at-bats and a roster spot during his time in Toronto.</p>
<p>Despite being a fixture on the team through two playoff seasons, Zeke isn&#8217;t a fan favourite. He&#8217;s quiet with the media, and his status as a backup prior to this season made him less visible. But he also doesn&#8217;t have something really identifiable as a skill, a calling card that would draw someone&#8217;s attention. Ask a fan what Zeke is good at, and you&#8217;ll probably get some furrowed brows as we try to figure it out. He doesn&#8217;t have the power of a Bautista or Donaldson, or the glove of a Pillar or Tulowitzki. He doesn&#8217;t hit for a high average, and isn&#8217;t the base-runner that Dalton Pompey was late in the 2015 season.</p>
<p>The Jays might try to knock Carrera down the depth chart again after this season. It&#8217;s easy to see why the team might look for a better solution. Despite the career year, there&#8217;s nothing really spectacular about Zeke. He&#8217;s not a star, a magnet for the attention of fans and front offices. He&#8217;s just fine. The team may not believe he&#8217;s as good as he showed this season, more a backup than a starter. There are other, bigger names that the team has to accommodate, and more immovable pieces ahead of him in the depth chart. &#8220;Left field&#8221; was the fallback for places the Jays could improve, and will likely be again.</p>
<p>Even in an outfield in flux, it&#8217;s easy to see where Carrera could get squeezed out. Needing some certainty, the Jays will probably bring Kevin Pillar back, living with a below-average bat for his reliable glove. Teoscar Hernandez should be given every chance to grab hold of an everyday spot. Steve Pearce, whose power plays better for a corner outfielder, will need his at-bats as well. Maybe Anthony Alford or Dwight Smith Jr. asserts themselves in spring training, forcing themselves into the conversation. Maybe the Jays spend to make the outfield a strength rather than a question mark.</p>
<p>Carrera will likely get to watch more games from the dugout as 2017 draws to a close, and that&#8217;s a bit of a shame. He was one of the few bright spots in a bad Jays season, someone who actually exceeded expectations. The team and fans may look to replace him, and that&#8217;s all well and good. But if he does come back, and has a spot in the lineup on opening day, maybe that&#8217;s fine too. As one of the few good things about this season, we should be open to the idea that he could surprise us again.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep 68: Those Trade Winds are Blowing</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/02/artificial-turf-wars-ep-68-those-trade-winds-are-blowing/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Aug 2017 09:51:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12786</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 68 Nick Dika joins Greg and Josh to break down the last week of Jays, with a long look at the Blue Jays deadline moves and the impacts made by Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith during their time as Blue Jays. They also discuss Steve Pearce&#8217;s magical week, Justin Smoak&#8217;s continued dominance, a brief [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 68</strong></p>
<p>Nick Dika joins Greg and Josh to break down the last week of Jays, with a long look at the Blue Jays deadline moves and the impacts made by Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith during their time as Blue Jays. They also discuss Steve Pearce&#8217;s magical week, Justin Smoak&#8217;s continued dominance, a brief return to form from Marco Estrada, Josh Donaldson hitting slightly better, and Jose Bautista&#8217;s struggles. Finally, they answer listener questions and give a Do Over to some MLB Umps.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/017/show_10179087_2017_08_02_04_02_53.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/017/show_10179087_2017_08_02_04_02_53.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 63: A Tall Glass of Juiced Balls</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/29/artificial-turf-wars-ep-63-a-tall-glass-of-juiced-balls/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Jun 2017 10:02:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Episode 63 The Ringer and Effectively Wild&#8217;s Ben Lindbergh drops by to talk about his recent piece on the effect of the baseball on the home run surge across baseball. He goes over his findings relating to the bounce of the ball and the lower seams, the cause/effect relationship of the new ball and the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 63</strong></p>
<p>The Ringer and Effectively Wild&#8217;s <a href="https://twitter.com/BenLindbergh" target="_blank">Ben Lindbergh</a> drops by to talk about <a href="https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-home-run-spike-juiced-ball-testing-reveal-155cd21108bc" target="_blank">his recent piece on the effect of the baseball on the home run surge across baseball</a>. He goes over his findings relating to the bounce of the ball and the lower seams, the cause/effect relationship of the new ball and the &#8220;flyball&#8221; revolution, and looks at why the home run increase is larger in the middle, as opposed to the big boppers. Greg and Josh also discuss the recent Jays play, including notes on the departure of Jason Grilli, the returns of Ezequiel Carrera and Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak&#8217;s All-Star surge, and the return to form of Steve Pearce. They also give out a Do-Over, answer listener questions and give a Gold Star to John Gibbons for his handling of the Roberto Osuna issue.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/011/show_10110267_2017_06_29_04_01_58.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/011/show_10110267_2017_06_29_04_01_58.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Weigh in on the Red Sox and Orioles Feud</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/04/the-blue-jays-weigh-in-on-the-red-sox-and-orioles-feud/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 May 2017 10:01:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10654</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK – The Blue Jays are not well liked across Major League Baseball. The loud style of play that endears the team to its fans comes across as obnoxious and pretentious to opposing clubs, and has resulted in plenty of dust ups over the Bautista years of this franchise. Rivalries have spawned with the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK – The Blue Jays are not well liked across Major League Baseball. The loud style of play that endears the team to its fans comes across as obnoxious and pretentious to opposing clubs, and has resulted in plenty of dust ups over the Bautista years of this franchise. Rivalries have spawned with the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, and Kansas City Royals for these reasons, and although this has meant that games with these clubs are always must watch TV, it also has resulted in many dangerous situations.</p>
<p>That isn&#8217;t unique in baseball, of course. If you have been paying attention recently, you have heard about the current feud exploding between the aforementioned Orioles and the Boston Red Sox over a hard, but unintentional slide from Manny Machado, and the retaliation pitches that have stemmed from that play. On Tuesday night, after being targeted by Chris Sale, Machado went on an <a href="http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=19298157&amp;sf75525280=1" target="_blank">expletive filled rant</a> to the media about how pitchers are allowed almost free reign when it comes to throwing at batters, and how he has lost all respect he had for the Boston Red Sox organization.</p>
<p>On Wednesday afternoon in the Blue Jays clubhouse, ESPN was playing Machado&#8217;s rant on repeat on the clubhouse televisions. As the players walked around between their workouts and pre-game routines, their eyes were glued to the monitors, digesting the play that had unfolded and Machado&#8217;s subsequent comments. Marco Estrada, the Blue Jays resident leader of the pitching staff, weighed in on the feud, taking a rather ambivalent, yet self-serving approach to the situation.</p>
<p>&#8220;<i>Let them do their thing. If they want to throw at each other and hurt each other, that’s on them.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>It&#8217;s a fun, but simple quote. However, when asked about his thoughts on the practice of throwing at batters in general, he had a lot more to say. Estrada maintained that as a pitcher, he has to look out for his teammates if a situation arises where they are being put in danger. &#8220;You got to protect your players. If it needs to happen, it needs to happen&#8221; he said while shrugging, as if to express his displeasure with the current way the game deals with these things. He added that he doesn&#8217;t &#8220;want to see anybody get hurt from it&#8221;, and was very clear about the following:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;If the other team is out throwing at us left and right&#8230;We can&#8217;t just let pitchers drill our guys, and let it be, or move on.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Jose Bautista was more interested in talking about the sentiment that this is how the game has been played for years, and how the players need to use common sense on these matters to avoid hurting anybody.</p>
<p><i>&#8220;I don&#8217;t think there is a right or a wrong way [to retaliate]. It&#8217;s just common sense. I mean putting people at injury risk&#8230; Nobody is out here, I believe and I would hope, to injure anybody. There is a certain protocol on how the game has been played for a long time and most people want that to be respected. But there should be ways to do it without putting people in harms way.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Estrada made sure to differentiate between throwing at a player&#8217;s backside and head hunting, the latter of which he said &#8220;should never be done&#8221;.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;There is a certain protocol on how the game has been played for a long time and most people want that to be respected. But there should be ways to do it without putting people in harms way.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p><i>&#8220;If you can&#8217;t keep the ball in the safe zone, don&#8217;t try to do it. It&#8217;s dangerous. You can end somebody&#8217;s career trying to do something like that.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Steve Pearce also weighed in, saying that &#8220;sometimes it gets taken a little too far,&#8221; but generally players &#8220;want to stick up for [their] teammates&#8221;. Pearce has an especially interesting perspective on all of this because the Blue Jays are now his fourth AL East team, and changing clubs has allowed him to see both sides of certain rivalries. He said that these rivalries tend &#8220;to stay between the lines&#8221;, and there are no hard feelings afterwards. Pearce added that although he has been on many teams, the general view point among players about these issues is &#8220;basically the same&#8221; everywhere. You may think that the journeyman would have no part in old rivalries, but Pearce explained that it doesn&#8217;t play out like that:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;When you go from team to team, sometimes you inherit somebody else&#8217;s beef. They&#8217;re your team and you have to stick up for them.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>That would perhaps shed some light on Matt Bush bizarrely taking centre stage in the Blue Jays &#8211; Rangers fight last season even though he was not around for the Bat Flip.</p>
<p>Pearce has also changed his style of play throughout the years when running the bases to avoid injuring players or breaking the newly implemented rules for sliding into a base. While laughing, he said that he doesn&#8217;t even &#8220;want to slide into second&#8221; anymore, choosing instead &#8220;to peel off, and save all the crap that&#8217;s going on now.&#8221;</p>
<p>Of course, you may have realized that this entire conversation stemmed from Manny Machado decrying being thrown at, something his team has done often against the Blue Jays, and specifically towards Jose Bautista. He didn&#8217;t want to get into that, or anything to do with the Red Sox and Orioles on Wednesday. Bautista shook his head from side to side while making a devilish smile when asked about the hypocrisy behind Machado&#8217;s statement, saying &#8220;I don&#8217;t want to be out of line, and comment on something that I shouldn&#8217;t be commenting on.&#8221;</p>
<p>So what does Estrada think about this all? Does he wish to see MLB do something to change the way the game has been played?</p>
<p><i>&#8220;I don&#8217;t know. F*ck, if it happens, it happens. It&#8217;s been part of the game. It&#8217;s not going to change.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Basically, who knows?</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Steve Pearce on Breaking Through an Early Season Slump</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/steve-pearce-on-breaking-through-an-early-season-slump/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/steve-pearce-on-breaking-through-an-early-season-slump/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Apr 2017 11:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rogers Centre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10322</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO &#8212; Baseball can be a funny game. The harder you try the more the game tends to slip away from you. The entirety of the Toronto Blue Jays roster has frustratingly dealt with this all season with the team breaking out of the gates to a dismal 5-13 record. They know they’re a good [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO &#8212; Baseball can be a funny game. The harder you try the more the game tends to slip away from you.</p>
<p>The entirety of the Toronto Blue Jays roster has frustratingly dealt with this all season with the team breaking out of the gates to a dismal 5-13 record. They know they’re a good team, but when they press and try to overcome their slow art in a single game nothing seems to break right.</p>
<p>Few individually have felt this more than newcomer Steve Pearce. After a scorching Opening Day start where the 34-year-old got three hits and scored a run, Pearce managed to equal his first game output of three hits in his next 32 at-bats.</p>
<p>What Pearce has been trying to focus on during this rut is simple, “just getting better.”</p>
<p>“Bottom line we got to get better, individually and as a team.” Pearce said prior to the Jays’ 3-0 win over the Boston Red Sox last Wednesday night at Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>Pearce has admitted to pressing in the opening weeks of the season and trying to do too much at times. What he’s lost during that time is his feel for the game. The feel of the game coming to him instead of chasing it. Seeing the ball out of the pitcher’s hand and making solid contact on a consistent basis.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Bottom line we got to get better, individually and as a team.” &#8211; Steve Pearce</p></blockquote>
<p>As funny as it may sound, in baseball sometimes less is more. When you start to try to do too much you end up pressing and making things more complicated for yourself.</p>
<p>“That’s when everything gets tense. You can’t play the kind of game you want to play when you’re tense,” Pearce said. “The looser you are, the better you feel, the better your production’s going to be, the better you’re going to feel, the better chance you have to get a base hit.</p>
<p>“This game can move so fast. The pitchers are so good that you really have to be in the best position in order to get base hits. They’re throwing 95 mph and if you’re tense that’s going to get blown right by you. You need your body free, and you need to be able to see the ball and unload on it.</p>
<p>“You know what they say, ‘if you’re thinking, you’re stinking.’ …You got to go up there and just see the ball and hit the ball.”</p>
<p>Manager John Gibbons knows this too.</p>
<p>“Baseball’s a different sport. In other sports you can run harder, you can hit somebody harder, you can give a better effort and that can work to your benefit. (In) baseball the harder you try the worse it gets sometimes,” Gibbons said.</p>
<blockquote><p>Baseball’s a different sport. In other sports you can run harder, you can hit somebody harder, you can give a better effort and that can work to your benefit. (In) baseball the harder you try the worse it gets sometimes.” &#8211; John Gibbons</p></blockquote>
<p>For Pearce that has led to a dreadfully slow start to his season slashing a meagre .162/.205/.162. It’s not for lack of talent either as Pearce has averaged 93 games, 16 home runs, 41 RBIs with a slash line of .267/.347/.493 over the last three seasons. All spent in the AL East.</p>
<p>His familiarity of the division however has not benefitted the Lakeland, FL. native, despite all but two of Toronto’s first 15 games coming against the AL East.</p>
<p>Even left-handed pitchers, Pearce’s bread and butter, have kept his offense at bay. Pearce hit .309 with seven home runs in 81 at-bats last season against lefties, and has slashed .264/.347/.489 in his career versus southpaws, but is just 2-for-19 with eight  strikeouts against them this season.</p>
<p>The sample size is small, and the stats magnified this early in the season, but there’s no denying that the first few weeks of the season have been less than ideal for Pearce.</p>
<p>When he’s slumping Pearce relies on video, stats sheets, pitching tendencies, and any other source available to Major Leaguers these days to try and break out of it, but at the end of the day it essentially comes down to feel.</p>
<p>“It’s mostly about feel. You just got to find a feel,” Pearce said. “Your mechanics they could be on or off, but if you feel good that’s really the most important part.</p>
<p>“If you get in that box and you feel good it’s definitely a heck of a lot better than anything. You could be mechanically sound, you could have the perfect BP, the perfect cage swing, but underneath the lights it’s a completely different ball game.”</p>
<p>With three hits in his last four games, Pearce is is at his best production level since his first game as a Blue Jay. A baby step in the right direction.</p>
<p>It’s more than enough for his manager, who has full confidence in his team, and the men on it.</p>
<p>“Pearcey is going to hit,” Gibbons said. “He’s going to hit some home runs, he’s going to swing it for us pretty good.”</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Enhanced Frustration of Familiar Blue Jays Problems</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2017 13:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse when it&#8217;s the exact same issues year over year.</p>
<p>This Blue Jays team is remarkably unchanged from the version that we saw on Opening Day one year ago. Among the 14 spots in the starting lineup and rotation, there have been just three changes: Kendrys Morales has replaced Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Liriano pitches instead of R.A. Dickey, and Michael Saunders has shrunk a few inches while simultaneously either being a little pudgier or becoming a lot more Venezuelan. Oh sorry, that&#8217;s Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>As such, not only have the flaws of certain Jays players been exposed early on, but those flaws could have been predicted or addressed, in some cases. In other cases it&#8217;s just a player who, while good, is not perfect, and their imperfections have shone through.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Unaddressable</h3>
<h4>Marco Estrada&#8217;s Changeup Digs the Long Ball</h4>
<p>In most cases, Marco Estrada uses his tightly spun changeup to dazzle hitters into hitting perfectly placed in field pop ups. That&#8217;s a large part of what&#8217;s made him so incredibly effective over the last two seasons. However, on Sunday April 9th against the Rays, that was not at all the case. Estrada lasted five innings in that start, but was peppered by Rays hitters for three home runs on the night.</p>
<p>The first home run was hit by the Rays&#8217; Corey Dickerson in the bottom of the third. The changeup was <a href="http://i.imgur.com/ZxGDI5C.png" target="_blank">up and in</a>, but Dickerson got just enough of it to dink the ball over the short wall in the left field corner at Tropicana field. You can cut Marco Estrada some slack on this one. Per <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a>, it had a true distance of just 326 feet and wouldn&#8217;t have been a home run in any other park in the majors.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171.jpg"><img class="wp-image-10184 size-medium alignnone" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171-300x295.jpg" alt="tropicanafield_2017_171" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>The Path of Dickerson&#8217;s HR via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/hrdetail.php?id=2017_171" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>Unfortunately the homer troubles didn&#8217;t end there. After a Kevin Kiermaier triple and a Brad Miller walk, Steven Souza Jr. hit his own homer to left field, once again off of a changeup that Estrada left <a href="http://i.imgur.com/JbXIrme.png" target="_blank">up and over the plate</a>. A weak ground ball to first base got Marco Estrada out of the inning, but there was still more to come. In the bottom of the fourth, after going down 0-2, Jesus Sucre hit a home run off of, you guessed it, an Estrada changeup.</p>
<p>Estrada’s hasn’t always struggled with home runs off his changeup, but his propensity to give up home runs in general is the worst part of his game. His 1.18 HR/9 ranked 29th worst among qualified pitchers in 2016. Yet Marco Estrada&#8217;s changeup is his bread and butter pitch. Because it&#8217;s so good and because this is only a single start, it&#8217;s really not worth worrying about, but it&#8217;s certainly frustrating.</p>
<h4>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s Achilles Heel</h4>
<p>Josh Donaldson is a notoriously robust baseball player and he&#8217;s played in more than 155 games in each of the last four seasons. However, the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/josh-donaldson-vikings-history-canada-1.3941918" target="_blank">viking-esuqe star</a> has a Greek flaw, but it&#8217;s in his calf rather than his heel. On Sunday, Donaldson pulled up after running out a ground ball. Donaldson had to be removed from the game and missed the Blue Jays&#8217; home opener (save for a 9th inning pinch hitting appearance) as a result of what the team is calling a calf injury. This isn&#8217;t the first time that he&#8217;s had calf issues either. In the Blue Jays first series at Tropicana Field in 2016, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-josh-donaldson-exits-game-rays/" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson limped his way to first base</a>, which also resulted in his being pulled from the game and getting diagnosed with a calf injury. The best predictor of a lack of injuries in the future is a lack of injuries in the past. Donaldson shouldn&#8217;t have too many nagging issues going forward, but it sure sucks when there&#8217;s even a chance of losing the player who&#8217;s <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2023770">posted more value than the rest of your lineup combined</a>.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Clearly Addressable</h3>
<h4>Ryan Goins&#8217; Existence on the Blue Jays Active Roster</h4>
<p>For some reason, Ryan Goins is still here. Personally, I have nothing against Ryan Goins, but I&#8217;ve yet to see any strong argument for his continued presence in Toronto. Following the team&#8217;s choice of Goins over Melvin Upton Jr., Gideon Turk <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/">wrote that it was Goins&#8217; flexibility and fit for the team&#8217;s present roster construction that forced the Blue Jays hand</a>. While that answer makes sense in a vacuum, no roster needs two no-hit middle infielders on the bench, especially not when one of the two is MLB’s worst hitter. In some ways, the Blue Jays have proved that as Goins and Barney have split playing time, neither having being used in the same game. Even in the Blue Jays home opener, a game in which Ryan Goins started at 3B, the team found no need to use the second middle infielder on the bench. Instead, all we saw were three paltry plate appearances and one miraculous walk. Had there not been two middle infielders on the bench, someone palatable could have pinch hit for one of the Jays&#8217; light hitters. There’s no need for both players. Now only if the Blue Jays would see it.</p>
<h4>The Belief that Justin Smoak Starting at 1B is Ok</h4>
<p>In spite of his once immaculate prospect status, Justin Smoak has not been a great major league player. In fact <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=2800&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=1950&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=21,a" target="_blank">very few first basemen have been as bad as Justin Smoak has</a>, while getting as much major league playing time. That trend hasn&#8217;t changed much in 2017, as he has only continued to strike out at what seem to be the Blue Jays most opportune run scoring moments. Additionally, his hitting performance is not the only issue with his starting at 1B. He has also forced Steve Pearce in to the confines of left field. Steve Pearce is a versatile player, but he&#8217;s by no means an ideal defensive left fielder and he&#8217;s shown that so far this season. The only reason he continues to be forced out there is Justin Smoak&#8217;s presence at first base and on the Blue Jays payroll.</p>
<p>Some have continued to argue that the Blue Jays <em>must </em>have some advanced metric that tells them Smoak&#8217;s true first base defense is not only better than the publicly available defensive metrics say, but good enough to offset his being one of MLB&#8217;s worst hitting first basemen. Given that no other team has recently employed or even attempted to employ a defense first starting 1B, I find that hard to believe. With Pearce&#8217;s versatility, Jose Bautista&#8217;s previous first base experience, and Melvin Upton&#8217;s ability to play all three outfield positions, the Blue Jays had a chance to fix first base. Yet, once again, they squandered it, and they&#8217;ve been rewarded with strikeout after strikeout ever since.</p>
<h3>The Future</h3>
<p>As was noted earlier in this piece, everything that could have gone wrong for the Blue Jays, has gone wrong for the Blue Jays. There&#8217;s no greater evidence of that than their current 1-6 record; the team&#8217;s <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-off-to-worst-start-in-team-history-after-dropping-home-opener-to-milwaukee-brewers-4-3" target="_blank">worst ever start to a season</a>. But it will get better and it&#8217;d be nearly impossible for it not to. That doesn&#8217;t make any of the team&#8217;s current problems, addressable or otherwise, any less frustrating. If one were to see any of the aforementioned issues once it&#8217;d be unfortunate. To see the same issues crop with the same players a year later is even worse. However, it&#8217;s also incredibly easy to see the negatives when the team has only won one game. Once the Blue Jays start dominating again, the addressable woes will be forgotten. That&#8217;s the Blue Jays team we need and the Blue Jays team that we deserve. Until then, the <a href="https://twitter.com/dlbno/status/851979226920001537" target="_blank">barrage of critical tweets</a> are a little more appropriate.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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