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	<title>Toronto &#187; Seattle Mariners</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch For Against the Mariners</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/09/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-mariners/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Jun 2017 14:27:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Greg Wisniewski, Dave Church, and Nick Dika Who Will Play Second Base? Devon Travis is back on the disabled list. After being hit on the wrist Sunday afternoon by a Luis Severino fastball, the assumption was that Travis’ wrist was the problem. On Tuesday, it was revealed that the injury sending Travis to the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Greg Wisniewski, Dave Church, and Nick Dika</span></i></p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">Who Will Play Second Base?</h3>
<p>Devon Travis is back on the disabled list. After being hit on the wrist Sunday afternoon by a Luis Severino fastball, the assumption was that Travis’ wrist was the problem. On Tuesday, it was revealed that the injury sending Travis to the DL is actually a bone bruise in his knee, similar to the injury that ended his 2016 season.</p>
<p>Given the amount of recovery time last season’s injury required and the possibly (I’m no doctor) chronic nature of Travis’ bone bruises, the Jays may be without one of their better hitters for a prolonged period of time.</p>
<p>So who will play second base?</p>
<p>The most likely solution is that Toronto will run with some combination of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney to cover second base in Travis’ absence.</p>
<p>Defensively, Goins, a natural shortstop with the reputation as the superior defensive player, grades out fairly comparably to Darwin Barney at second base in advanced defensive metrics like UZR over the past several seasons. This season, however, both Goins and Barney’s defensive numbers are significantly lower than they have been in the past. I’d attribute that more to small sample noise rather than a concerning dip in either players defensive abilities, but it is worth monitoring.</p>
<p>Given Goins is a left-handed batter, the conventional wisdom would have him play against right-handed pitchers and Barney play against lefties. But offensively, Goins and Barney are comparable hitters against right-handed pitching: Goins career slash line of .231/.283/.343 is not significantly better than Barney’s .240/.285/.327. Barney is the decidedly better hitter against lefties, as Goins has only manage to muster a .197/.232./.295 line in his career.</p>
<p>Chris Coghlan, who has played primarily at third base and in the outfield this season, also has some experience at second base but doesn&#8217;t seem to be a significant offensive upgrade on either Barney or Goins. Then, there is also the seemingly ever-present Brett Lawrie speculation. While Lawrie’s Red Bull-fuelled personality may be seen as a bit challenging for his co-workers, the unemployed Lawrie slashed .248/.310/.413 last season in Chicago. On paper he could be a nice interim solution, but Lawrie is still recovering from a leg injury and appears to be transitioning into some type of brand ambassador role with Pringles.</p>
<p>Whomever John Gibbons decides to trot out at second base, don’t get too worked up about it – Barney and Goins are very similar players and should do a comparable job while filling in. While it always hurts to lose on of your better players, the team can be successful with Travis out.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">A Familiar Face Returns</h3>
<p>Danny Valencia was in the middle of his best season when he was in the American League East. He set then-career highs in batting average, slugging percentage, and TAv. Despite all that success, he never quite got a permanent position with the squad, and was let go for basically nothing. I am, of course, talking about his 2013 campaign with the Baltimore Orioles, for whom Valencia had 170 plate appearances that year.</p>
<p>Valencia is a bit of mystery as someone who has been a useful player at times but not useful enough that teams want to keep him. Jays fans will remember him from his 2015 season where he was a fantastic part-time player for them, but was mysteriously DFA after the trade deadline in favor of Munenori Kawasaki, whose most visible skill that Valencia didn&#8217;t possess was having played shortstop at some point in his career.</p>
<p>The A&#8217;s got a useful season out of Valencia and, like nearly every other team before them, didn&#8217;t seem to want to keep him. They traded the vagabond infielder to the Mariners for a prospect. After a tough April that had his starting spot in question, Valencia has righted the ship, notching a solid .824 OPS in May and a scorching 1.214 mark in the first six games in June. With Nelson Cruz dinged up, Valencia is even hitting cleanup for a team that won five games in a row (prior to their game on June 8th).</p>
<p>Valencia has historically been a better hitter against lefthanders than righthanders (an .864 OPS against .692, respectively), which should only come up in J.A. Happ&#8217;s scheduled start on Sunday. There&#8217;s not a lot of history to go on with Valencia and this staff, which will hopefully help the Jays have an advantage against the Mariners&#8217; slugger.</p>
<h3 style="text-align: left">John Gibbons Bullpen Dilemma</h3>
<p>Last year the Blue Jays had the luxury of a starting rotation that went deep into games and remained healthy all year long. In 2017, the exact opposite has been true for the first 60 games. This has often left John Gibbons in a place where the team has to protect a lead, but the starter is way up in pitch count by the fifth inning. If you&#8217;re wondering the real reason for the eight and nine man bullpen this year, some of the reasoning might follow from just how many innings they regularly need from the &#8216;pen. Observe the last ten days of bullpen democracy. Green boxes are pitchers working with a day or more of rest, orange with zero days, and red would have been three days in a row. The clever manager has managed to avoid any &#8220;red&#8221; appearances.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/reliever-usage.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11554" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/reliever-usage.png" alt="reliever usage" width="886" height="231" /></a></p>
<p>However, there are problem signs. Five different relievers have five appearances, effectively working every other day. Gibbons isn&#8217;t always able to go to his ideal match-ups because he&#8217;s been hemmed in by his usage over the previous two days.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a bigger issue though, and that&#8217;s the workload as it piles up over the course of the year. This team was built on the idea of a strong starting rotation and bullpen assembled out of useful, but unremarkable parts (Osuna excepted). In 2016 that formula had it&#8217;s IP leader as Roberto Osuna at 74 innings, and Joe Biagini at 67. This year, after 60 games, four relievers are on pace to throw more than those 67 innings. Leone (68), Barnes (73), Smith (76) and Ryan Tepera (90) are all racking up innings. Tepera is really being leaned on, considering that only six relievers in all of baseball exceeded the 80 inning mark in 2016.</p>
<p>I had to go back to 2009 to find a Blue Jays bullpen where two relievers (Shawn Camp &#8211; 79, Brandon League &#8211; 74) exceeded 70 innings in the same season. When pitchers get used more, they break more, and the Jays can ill afford to lose any of the guys performing well. Watch how Gibbons manages with a lead when he gets one in this series. If he leaves his starter in for a couple more outs than you might like, maybe he&#8217;s trying to figure out how to save some of these guys from moving their workload into uncharted territory. If he&#8217;s still going to the phone in the fifth, maybe he&#8217;s hoping there&#8217;s more help down on the farm, and the eight and nine man bullpen is here for a good long while.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 10, Mariners 2; The Bats Are Back In Town</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/21/recap-blue-jays-10-mariners-2-the-bats-are-back-in-town/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Sep 2016 05:49:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[With an offense that has under-performed for the majority of the year, especially in recent weeks, a blowout wasn&#8217;t something people were anticipating from this game. But the Jays got one, piling on the runs in a huge fourth inning, eventually winning 10-2 over the Mariners. Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma started out well enough, though some of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With an offense that has under-performed for the majority of the year, especially in recent weeks, a blowout wasn&#8217;t something people were anticipating from this game. But the Jays got one, piling on the runs in a huge fourth inning, eventually winning 10-2 over the Mariners.</p>
<p>Mariners starter Hisashi Iwakuma started out well enough, though some of his outs were loud, with Edwin Encarnacion taking him right to the wall in the first inning. It was shaping up to be a familiar frustration for Jays fans: Runners stranded, hard hit balls finding gloves, and Iwakuma dancing his way in and out of trouble. Until the fourth inning, when the Jays exploded for eight runs, chasing Iwakuma from the game. His final line was 3 and 1/3 innings pitched, 8 hits, 5 runs, 1 walk, and 5 strikeouts.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ has had great run support for a lot of the season in addition to being really good, and both of those things happened tonight. Though the line wasn&#8217;t impressive, it didn&#8217;t tell the story of Happ&#8217;s performance. The runs were almost entirely a result of poor defense (more on that below). Though he only went five innings, the only hard-hit balls came in his last inning, when his pitch count had been run up because of (again) that longer third inning. His final line was 5 innings, 6 hits, 2 runs and 2 walks, striking out 8 batters. With a large lead, the Jays were able to save their better relievers, as Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, Brett Cecil, and Scott Feldman finished up the game without a whole lot of action.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the Jays having already plated two runs in the fourth inning, Saunders came to the plate with Tulowitzki on base. Saunders promptly launched a moonshot to left field, giving the Jays a 4-2 lead. Breaking the tie added 22.9 percentage points to the Jays&#8217; chances to win, and gave them a lead they would not relinquish.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With two runners on in the third inning and one out, Franklin Gutierrez strode to the plate with a chance to get the Mariners on the board. Happ struck him out. Though Robinson Cano did drive those runners in immediately after, Gutierrez&#8217;s strike out lowered the Mariners&#8217; chances to win by 8.9 percentage points.</p>
<h3>You Get a Hit! And You Get a Hit! Everyone Gets a Hit!</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays lineup kept moving in the fourth inning, in an offensive eruption that has been so foreign of late. Nine consecutive hitters reached base, and it was at least partially because of a stroke of luck: Jose Bautista hit a pop-up that Chris Ianetta misplayed, and Bautista eventually singled. The next eight hitters did this: Home run, single, home run, double, single, single, walk, double. Iwakuma and two relievers couldn&#8217;t stem the tide, as the Jays notched eight runs, recovering the lead from the Mariners and then some. All nine Jays regulars finished the game with a hit and a run scored.</p>
<h3>Travis&#8217; Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Half Inning</h3>
<p>Though the Jays&#8217; second baseman has been one of the few offensive bright spots in September, he had a forgettable stretch on defense tonight. He misplayed a routine ground ball from Guillermo Heredia in the third inning, dropping the ball as he attempted to turn a double play, ending up with two runners on and just one out instead. Two batters later, Travis had another grounder from Cano carom off his legs into foul territory short of the right fielder, and Cano ended up on third. Both of these should have been errors, but weren&#8217;t scored as such. If this had happened on a night the Jays didn&#8217;t score a bunch of runs (almost any other game in September), it would have been more of a problem, though now it just stands out as a wart on an otherwise excellent game for the boys in blue. Travis did field several balls over the final few innings without incident.</p>
<h3>More Dingers, Please</h3>
<p>The Jays&#8217; trademark in 2015 was home runs, and those have mostly disappeared in a light-hitting September, with the Jays slugging a piddling .341 prior to tonight&#8217;s game. As encouraging as the runs was seeing two Jays in particular going deep: Michael Saunders, and Josh Donaldson, in a park that&#8217;s not especially kind to hitters. With a total of four home runs on the night, let&#8217;s hope the Jays continue to flash the power in the remaining games, easing the pressure on a pitching staff that&#8217;s usually held up their end of the bargain this season.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>It&#8217;s an afternoon game tomorrow to close it up, as the Jays will be back at Safeco Field at 3:40 PM ET. Aaron Sanchez (13-2, 3.17 ERA) will start for the Jays, while Felix Hernandez (11-6, 3.79) goes for the Mariners. This King Felix that goes tomorrow might be a different one than Jays fans are used to seeing: he&#8217;s struggled of late, giving up 6 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Sanchez is looking to rebound from a bad start himself, where he only went 3 and 2/3 innings and allowed 6 runs against the Red Sox in an 11-8 loss.</p>
<p>The Red Sox won their sixth game in a row tonight, beating the Orioles 5-2. The good news for the Jays is that they&#8217;re now a game ahead of the Orioles for the wildcard, the bad news is they remain four games out of the division lead behind the Sox.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Joe Nicholson &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Recap: Mariners 14, Blue Jays 5; Dickey Disappoints While Cruz Scores Touchdown</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/23/recap-mariners-14-blue-jays-5-dickey-disappoints-while-cruz-scores-touchdown/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jul 2016 20:37:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4793</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some days you just don&#8217;t have it. This certainly qualifies as one of those, as the Blue Jays were dominated by the Mariners on Saturday afternoon. The pitching was poor and the offense remained hidden after mustering up only four hits last night. Add it all up and it&#8217;s one to forget in the form [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some days you just don&#8217;t have it. This certainly qualifies as one of those, as the Blue Jays were dominated by the Mariners on Saturday afternoon. The pitching was poor and the offense remained hidden after mustering up only four hits last night. Add it all up and it&#8217;s one to forget in the form of a listless 14-5 defeat.</p>
<p>Toronto struck first when Kevin Pillar scored on a Josh Thole sacrifice fly in the second inning but things unraveled rather quickly thereafter. R.A. Dickey struggled mightily in what was the shortest outing of his Blue Jay career.</p>
<p>Gifted a lead, Dickey surrendered an infield single and hit two batters before giving up a grand slam to Nelson Cruz in the top of the 3rd. He came back out looking to reverse his fortunes in the fourth but loaded the bases, gave up another run on another infield hit and departed the game without recording an out in the 4th. Franklin Morales limited the damage and got out of the inning after another run scored, sending the Blue Jays into the bottom of the 4th trailing 6-1. Dickey&#8217;s final line reads 3.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K on 72 pitches.</p>
<p>Jesse Chavez came on in the 6th and had a truly putrid day. He surrendered five consecutive hits before getting a double play off the bat of Cruz with the bases loaded. It looked like that would be the end of the scoring for the inning until Kyle Seager launched a two run homer to left center, making the score 11-1. Chavez&#8217;s final line: 0.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER. Not good.</p>
<p>Drew Storen entered in the 8th and promptly gave up a walk, a ground rule double and a three run home run to Cruz. Cruz was a one man wrecking crew with the bat, notching seven RBI on the day. One inning pitched and three more earned runs off Storen, who just can&#8217;t seem to get going this season.</p>
<p>Michael Saunders homered to lead off the 6th and connected again in the 8th but was basically alone in the offensive attack. Justin Smoak hit a two run homer in the 8th to go with Saunders&#8217; solo shot but it was far too little and way too late for the Jays. The offense was baffled by Hisashi Iwakuma, who picked up his fif2th straight win. He worked 6.0 innings and gave up just four hits and two runs. The rest of the runs were scored off mop up man and former Blue Jay farmhand Wade LeBlanc.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s top play came early when Nelson Cruz hit his 9th career grand slam in the top of the 3rd inning. A monster mash into the center field seats, the big swing turned a one run deficit into a three run lead and served as a sign of things to come for the Mariners while accounting for a .283 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play also came early when R.A. Dickey coaxed a double play ball out of Leonys Martin in the top of the 2nd. With nobody out and runners on first and second, the twin killing helped Dickey escape unscathed. At least for one inning. The GIDP earned a -.108 WPA.</p>
<h3>Hey It&#8217;s Franklin, Comin&#8217; Over to Play</h3>
<p>Franklin Morales returned to the Blue Jays after being activated from his rehab assignment yesterday. The team has been desperate for relief help and would love if Morales can become an effective second lefty out of the bullpen. He picked up 2.0 innings of work on just 17 pitches today, entering with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 4th and only allowing one inherited runner to score on a double play. He only gave up one hit in the top of the 5th in an encouraging reintroduction.</p>
<p>Another injured Blue Jay returned to the lineup today as Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s nagging Achilles was apparently no issue this afternoon. He returned to the leadoff spot and played the full day in right field so he should be fine going forward, though he&#8217;s been prone to minor re-aggravation so it&#8217;s something the team will keep an eye on.</p>
<h3>Smashing Saunders</h3>
<p>While most of the offense slept through today&#8217;s game, Michael Saunders hit his second and third dingers over the past two days. Both to left field, they were his 18th and 19th home runs of the season as the All Star continues to rake. He&#8217;s already tied his career high in homers in what&#8217;s been a wonderful season.</p>
<p>Perhaps the only other batting bright spot is Josh Donaldson&#8217;s run, as the reigning MVP has now reached base in 26 consecutive games.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look to take the final game of the series tomorrow afternoon on Kevin Pillar bobblehead day. They&#8217;ll also see if there are any lingering effects from the line drive that hit JA Happ on his pitching arm in his previous start. Happ (12-3, 3.43 ERA) will be opposing left-hander Wade Miley (6-7, 5.36 ERA) with first pitch set for 1:07 ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Mariners 2, Blue Jays 1; Canadian Shuts Down Canada&#8217;s Team</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/22/game-recap-mariners-2-blue-jays-1-canadian-shuts-down-canadas-team/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jul 2016 02:06:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Marco Estrada returned and tried to shake of the rust, and James Paxton pitched on &#8216;home soil&#8217; with a polished approach as the Jays faced the Mariners on Friday night. Save a Canadian vs. Canadian home run from Michael Saunders off of Paxton, the Jays couldn&#8217;t find a way to get a big hit with [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Marco Estrada returned and tried to shake of the rust, and James Paxton pitched on &#8216;home soil&#8217; with a polished approach as the Jays faced the Mariners on Friday night. Save a Canadian vs. Canadian home run from Michael Saunders off of Paxton, the Jays couldn&#8217;t find a way to get a big hit with runners on. They fell 2-1 in a game that seemed to have a lot of runners, but not a lot of scoring.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Seth Smith of the Mariners gets the gold star for his double in the fifth. The big hit drove in Shaw O&#8217;Malley to put the Mariners permanently ahead and raise their WPA by 13.7%.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders gets &#8216;credit&#8217; for the bottom play of the game at -17% WPA with his strikeout in the bottom of the ninth with two runners on. The at-bat might have unfolded differently as Seattle closer Steve Cishek had been a little wild, but Mike Everett decided that a pitch 13 inches off the ground would be called strike two. Saunders whiffed on the next pitch, ending the game.</p>
<h3>Meat Tenderizer</h3>
<p>James Paxton took a mallet to the middle of the Jays order, the 2-3-4 hitters combined were two for nine with seven strikeouts. In fact, he notched six strikeouts in the first six appearances of Donaldson, Encarnacion and Tulowitzki. When the biggest bats in the lineup are whiffing like crazy, you might be having a special night. The potential in that 99mph fastball is surely what both the Jays and Mariners saw when they drafted him.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Josh Thole is going to be filling in for Russell Martin for a little bit. As you may have heard, Martin fell down after a too-long sauna stay, and won&#8217;t be able to play for an indefinite amount of time. Will he be able to play like a fringe average major leaguer on offence, and not the .160 hitter we&#8217;ve seen so far? Will we see an impact on the pitcher&#8217;s results? Catching is an area where the Jays have no depth, and any DL time for Martin will expose a severe weakness.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Hisashi Iwakuma, who, thankfully, is nothing at all like James Paxton, will face off against the Jays and R.A. Dickey on Saturday at 1:07 pm. This might be a fun one if the hot air is rising in the dome.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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