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	<title>Toronto &#187; Scott Feldman</title>
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		<title>The 9 Biggest Bullpen Blowups in Jays History</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/24/the-9-biggest-bullpen-blowups-in-jays-history/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ross atkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sergio Santos]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 trade deadline didn&#8217;t come close to matching the euphoric highs of the 2015 deadline. You can&#8217;t trump David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. Nobody was asking first-year GM Ross Atkins to shock the world, and most Jays fans were impressed with the shrewd, but impactful acquisitions he did make. And the depth provided by Melvin Upton [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 trade deadline didn&#8217;t come close to matching the euphoric highs of the 2015 deadline. You can&#8217;t trump David Price and Troy Tulowitzki. Nobody was asking first-year GM Ross Atkins to shock the world, and most Jays fans were impressed with the shrewd, but impactful acquisitions he did make. And the depth provided by Melvin Upton Jr. and Francisco Liriano has already proved invaluable with all the outfield injuries and Sanchez&#8217; mini-vacation to Florida.</p>
<p>But if you&#8217;ve been following this team since the Ricciardi days, then perhaps the decisions to ship Jesse Chavez and Drew Storen off in exchange for <em>other relievers</em> was more stunning than last year&#8217;s fireworks. Toronto had never shelled out millions on a rental ace at the deadline, but it&#8217;s also not the Blue Jay way to throw out their bullpen garbage and roll the dice with fresh arms.</p>
<p>The last time I can remember something like this happening was when Anthopoulos traded away the struggling Francisco Cordero (along with Ben Francisco and a minor league package highlighted by our dear friend Joe Musgrove) to Houston in exchange for J.A. Happ and two relievers.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not like Scott Feldman was a clear upgrade over Chavez (as we <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/08/02/new-blue-jay-feldman-tagged-for-loss-against-former-team">found out</a> the very same day), but it&#8217;s at least a shake-up, a change of scenery, a middle finger to inertia. Standing pat with a struggling bullpen <em>can</em> be perceived as a show of confidence in your guys, but when you stand pat year after year it starts to reek of complacency.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not saying that Atkins revolutionized the bullpen. Being in a position to land Andrew Miller would&#8217;ve been nice, or Jeremy Jeffress. But Toronto&#8217;s relievers have accumulated the 1.5 WARP as a group since the break, trailing only the Yankees and Rangers by that metric. The Cleveland series may have taken some winds out of some sails, but while this bullpen is more or less the same as it was talent-wise, it <em>feels</em> different somehow &#8211; more energized, dependable.</p>
<p>So in honour of Atkins&#8217; refusal to go gently into that good night, I&#8217;ve decided to open up the vault and look back at some of the team&#8217;s worst bullpen moments over the past unkind decade. You&#8217;re probably already cycling through some names in your head: Jon Rauch, Sergio Santos, Frank Francisco. Maybe you&#8217;ve got a better memory: Tomo Ohka, Brian Tallet, Jesse Litsch. I&#8217;m really sorry if I made you think even for a second today about <a href="http://torontolife.com/city/toronto-sports/blue-jays-jo-jo-reyes-almost-sets-a-new-record-for-futility/">Jo-Jo Reyes</a>.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve already rambled too long, so I&#8217;ll keep the methodology explanation simple. I used the Baseball Reference Play Index to search for all the appearances under 1.0 IP by a Toronto reliever since 1977 and sorted the list by <a href="//www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2014-09-05&amp;team=Red Sox&amp;dh=0&amp;season=2014&quot;&gt;FanGraphs&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;">Wins Probability Added (WPA)</a>. WPA has nothing to do with how good a pitcher is, it&#8217;s entirely based on context &#8211; this isn&#8217;t a ranking of the worst Blue Jays relievers. Here&#8217;s the <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/game_finder.cgi?type=p#gotresults&amp;as=result_pitcher&amp;offset=0&amp;match=basic&amp;suffix=&amp;min_year_game=1977&amp;max_year_game=2016&amp;series=any&amp;series_game=any&amp;playoffs=&amp;WL=any&amp;game_length=any&amp;team_id=TOR&amp;team_lg=&amp;opp_id=&amp;opp_lg=&amp;use_dh=&amp;throws=any&amp;HV=any&amp;game_site=&amp;temperature_min=0&amp;temperature_max=120&amp;wind_speed_min=0&amp;wind_speed_max=90&amp;wind_direction_tolf=1&amp;wind_direction_tocf=1&amp;wind_direction_torf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromlf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromcf=1&amp;wind_direction_fromrf=1&amp;wind_direction_ltor=1&amp;wind_direction_rtol=1&amp;wind_direction_unknown=1&amp;precipitation_unknown=1&amp;precipitation_none=1&amp;precipitation_drizzle=1&amp;precipitation_showers=1&amp;precipitation_rain=1&amp;precipitation_snow=1&amp;sky_unknown=1&amp;sky_sunny=1&amp;sky_cloudy=1&amp;sky_overcast=1&amp;sky_night=1&amp;sky_dome=1&amp;Role=noGS&amp;DEC=any&amp;number_matched=1&amp;orderby=wpa_def&amp;order_by_asc=1&amp;c1criteria=IPouts&amp;c1gtlt=lt&amp;c1val=1&amp;c2criteria=&amp;c2gtlt=eq&amp;c2val=0&amp;c3criteria=&amp;c3gtlt=eq&amp;c3val=0&amp;c4criteria=&amp;c4gtlt=eq&amp;c4val=0&amp;c5criteria=&amp;c5gtlt=eq&amp;c5val=1.0&amp;c6criteria=&amp;location=pob&amp;locationMatch=is&amp;pob=&amp;pod=&amp;pcanada=&amp;pusa=&amp;firstgames=&amp;startgames=&amp;lastgames=&amp;firstteamgames=&amp;startteamgames=&amp;lastteamgames=&amp;ajax=1&amp;submitter=1&amp;z=1&amp;z=1">full list</a> if you&#8217;re interested.</p>
<h4><strong>9. -0.913 WPA: Casey Janssen (September 5, 2014)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2014-09-05&amp;team=Red Sox&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>After the Red Sox rallied for three runs in the bottom of the 8th against Aaron Loup to send the game to extras, Dioner Navarro singled in Marcus Stroman &#8211; who was pinch running for Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; and the Jays retook the lead with a two-run 10th. Boston had a 9.4% Win Expectancy when closer Casey Janssen entered the bottom of the 10th. Four straight singles and a sac-fly later and Boston&#8217;s Win Expectancy was up to 71% with men on first and second.</p>
<p>With the score knotted at 8-8, David Ortiz grounded sharply to second baseman Steve Tolleson, who had come on as a defensive replacement for Munenori Kawasaki. Instead of starting an inning-ending double play, Tolleson&#8217;s throw sailed past second base and set the stage for Yoenis Cespedes&#8217; walk-off single.</p>
<h4><strong>8. -0.917 WPA: Kevin Gregg (May 20, 2010)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2010-05-20&amp;team=Mariners&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Kevin Gregg somehow saved 37 games for Toronto during a 2010 season in which the starting five featured Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brett Cecil, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Rzepczynski. He was a pretty good pitcher by 2010 Jays standards, but it&#8217;s funny how a few terrible appearances colour our memory of a player.</p>
<p>The Mariners entered the bottom of the 9th down two runs with a Win Expectancy of 8%, and quickly got within a run on two singles and two walks. Gregg then recorded his only out of the inning on a sac-fly that tied things up before allowing a walk-off single to Ken Griffey Jr.</p>
<h4><strong>7. -0.923 WPA: Sergio Santos (May 2, 2014)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2014-05-02&amp;team=Pirates&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>What happened with Santos in 2014 reminds me a lot of Storen this year. Electric stuff, previous success&#8230; cringe-worthy trainwreck. After serving up a game-tying two-run jack to Pedro Alvarez which brought Pittsburgh Win Expectancy from 9% to 57%, Santos got a quick fly out before Starling Marte crushed a 2-1 offering for a walk-off win. It was Santos third blown save in a little over a month as the Jays closer.</p>
<h4><strong>6. -0.946 WPA: Mike Timlin (July 15, 1996)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1996-07-15&amp;team=Orioles&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The O&#8217;s needed four runs in the bottom of the 9th to win this one. They got five. Cal Ripken Jr. led things off by reaching on a fielding error, and two batters later Bobby Bonilla tied things up with a three-run shot. Timlin struck out the next batter, and Manager Cito Gaston left him in to close out the bottom of the lineup.</p>
<p>Didn&#8217;t quite work out that way. Pinch-hitter Luis Polonia bunted on the first pitch and narrowly beat out the throw, setting the stage for a walk-off homer by catcher Chris Hoiles.</p>
<h4><strong>5. -0.947 WPA: Darren Hall (June 4, 1995)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1995-06-04&amp;team=Indians&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The high-powered Jays offence scored seven runs in the 1st inning of this game, but an uncharacteristically terrible start from David Cone made it an 8-6 game heading into the 9th. Still, the Indians had just a 5% Win Expectancy after Carlos Baerga failed to bunt his way on base to lead things off. A couple of singles and an RBI groundout by Jim Thome got Cleveland to within a run, but their Win Expectancy was still just at 11%.</p>
<p>Down to their last out, first baseman Paul Sorrento stepped up to the plate and belted the first pitch he saw from Hall into the seats to give the Indians the win. One swing, -0.890 WPA. The craziest thing is that Hall only threw eight pitches in the appearance.</p>
<h4><strong>4. -0.950 WPA: Casey Janssen (September 10, 2007)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2007-09-10&amp;team=Tigers&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Almost exactly a year after sending Detroit to the World Series with a walk-off home run against the A&#8217;s in Game 6 of the ALCS, Magglio Ordonez came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the 9th and his team down a run in a game with important Wild Card implications.</p>
<p>Roy Halladay was toying with the Tigers all night, and after getting a quick ground ball double play to start the 9th it looked like Doc was headed for another complete game. Detroit had a 1% Win Expectancy when Sean Casey singled, and after another single Gibby pulled Halladay for Janssen.</p>
<p>As a general rule, even if Halladay has thrown 123 pitches, you don&#8217;t pull him for anyone with one out left. Janssen proceeded to load the bases before throwing an 0-0 meatball that Ordonez slapped into right for a two-run walk-off single.</p>
<h4><strong>3. -0.954 WPA: Jeremy Accardo (September 8, 2007)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2007-09-08&amp;team=Devil Rays&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>Just <em>two days</em> before the Ordonez walk-off, a skinny center fielder named B.J. Upton came to the plate with two outs in the bottom of the 9th and his team down a run in a game that didn&#8217;t matter at all for either team.</p>
<p>This one had played out a lot like the Ordonez game: Jays starter A.J. Burnett cruised through eight innings before handing the ball over to Accardo to wrap things up. An error by Troy Glaus opened the door for a two-run shot by Delmon Young, but Accardo recovered with a quick grounder for out number two and the Rays Win Expectancy was back down to 5%. Accardo would proceed to walk Jonny Gomes before serving up a first pitch walk-off homer to Upton.</p>
<h4><strong>2. -0.959 WPA: Dennis Lamp (August 16, 1984)</strong></h4>
<iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=1984-08-16&amp;team=Indians&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>What do Pat Tabler, Brook Jacoby, and Joe Carter have in common? They were all on the 1984 Cleveland Indians. Really makes you think!</p>
<p>Looking to close out a quality start from Dave Stieb, Lamp allowed four straight base runners to open the 9th. With the bases loaded, Lamp briefly recovered to get two quick outs before giving up a walk-off two-run double to DH Andre Thornton.</p>
<h4><strong>1. -0.960 WPA: Cliff Politte (June 7, 2003)</strong></h4>
<p><iframe src="http://www.fangraphs.com/graphframe.aspx?config=0&amp;static=0&amp;type=wins&amp;num=0&amp;h=450&amp;w=450&amp;date=2003-06-07&amp;team=Reds&amp;dh=0" width="450" height="450" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" ></iframe></span></p>
<p>The main reason why Politte takes the top spot is that WPA is an aggregated stat, and for some reason he was allowed to throw 32 pitches in this outing. Even after allowing a game-tying three-run homer to Jason LaRue, Jays Manager Carlos Tosca didn&#8217;t think to yank him. Maybe the <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/06/phillies-bullpen-phone-off-the-hook-francoeur">bullpen phone was broken</a> that night.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Assessing the Trade Deadline: The Upgrades We Haven&#8217;t Talked About</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/assessing-the-trade-deadline-the-upgrades-we-havent-talked-about/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2016 19:23:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Liriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Miley]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[This week marked the passing of the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. With the Blue Jays a year removed from the trade deadline to end all trade deadlines, this season’s transactional activity lacked the same excitement as 2015. While this year’s moves may not be as sexy, that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays’ front [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week marked the passing of the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. With the Blue Jays a year removed from the trade deadline to end all trade deadlines, this season’s transactional activity lacked the same excitement as 2015. While this year’s moves may not be as sexy, that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays’ front office did nothing to improve their already strong ball club.</p>
<p>Lost in this year&#8217;s trade analysis however, were many of the intangible improvements the Blue Jays made at this year&#8217;s deadline, which, according to Chris &#8216;Mad Dog&#8217; Russo, are key ingredients in the championship elixir. With this in mind, here is an assessment of the under-reported upgrades that the Blue Jays did and didn’t make at the 2016 deadline.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Melvin Upton and AL East Experience</h3>
<p>While many note that Upton amounts to a solid depth acquisition – a defensive replacement who can hit against left-handed pitching and play all three outfield positions, they are underselling one important part of Upton’s portfolio: AL East Experience. Long heralded as baseball’s toughest division, the AL East is presumed in a class of its own when it comes to the caliber of competition (although this can not be verified numerically in recent years).</p>
<p>While Upton may not be able to overtake Michael Saunders or Kevin Pillar in terms of playing time, he will be able to tell you the name of a great steakhouse in Baltimore or the best park to take your wife and kids to near Yankee Stadium. These kinds of intangibles are crucial to any team with its sights set on a division championship or just enjoys eating well on the road.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Bearded Swingman Scott Feldman</h3>
<p>While the Blue Jays were rumored to be in on many of the starting pitchers available, the Scott Feldman acquisition came as a surprise. Feldman, however, provides valuable beard depth on a team that may lose two of its more elite beards (Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders) to free agency this off season.</p>
<p>Despite possessing a strong crop of young pitchers in Roberto Osuna, Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez, none of the youngsters have demonstrated the ability to grow the facial hair the team may need come 2017. Aside from his ability to pitch in both the rotation and the bullpen, Feldman has long possessed an 80-grade beard that could slot in nicely as the replacement for either Bautista or Saunders, should the team not be able to re-sign them. The Jays were unable to add anyone that could offset the potential loss of Edwin Encarnacion’s chinstrap, however.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Install a Safety Railing in Russell Martin’s Shower</h3>
<p>Catching depth is one of the scarcest commodities in the Major Leagues. Very few teams are lucky enough to have one high-quality player behind the plate let alone two. This is why one of the Blue Jays’ small but important moves at the deadline was to install a safety railing in Russell Martin’s shower.</p>
<p>The Jays realize that protecting Martin, who was forced to miss a handful of games in mid-July (due to a sauna-induced slip in in the shower) needed to be a top priority for the club. The cost of the installation is said to be a fraction of what the Blue Jays would pay to keep Eric Kratz on the Major League roster and the team was able to get a great deal on a contractor because Jason Grilli knew a guy.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Exercise Restraint and Don’t Trade Jose Bautista to the Nationals</h3>
<p>Jose Bautista, who’s contract expires after the World Series, may be nearing the end of his Blue Jays’ tenure if management decides they don’t want to pay what it will cost to keep him into his early 40s.</p>
<p>This uncertainty led to the circulation of rumors that Bautista might be headed to the Nationals before the non-waiver trade deadline. While Atkins was no doubt tempted by his hatred of all things connected to the previous management regime, not to mention strong Nationals’ trade packages built around Ryan Zimmerman or Jayson Werth, the Blue Jays’ GM opted to hold on to Bautista. Mike Rizzo’s “it never hurts to ask” policy typically only works when he’s asking about players like Johnathan Papelbon.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Hidden Value in the Francisco Liriano Trade</h3>
<p>The most notable acquisition the Blue Jays made this month was Monday’s trade for Pirates’ lefty Francisco Liriano. In addition to Liriano, the Blue Jays acquired two prospects and three weeks of extra media content in the deal.</p>
<p>While many praised the move as a savvy way to acquire Major League talent and prospects at the same time, the real get is the additional columns, video segments and radio discussions about how the Blue Jays may now replace Aaron Sanchez in the rotation. Excited at the possibility of filling their airwaves with further discussion and analysis of the great Sanchez debate, one Sportsnet big wig was quoted as saying: “the ratings generated when Zauny turns bright red on Tim and Sid alone will justify paying Liriano’s $13 million dollar salary in 2017”.</p>
<p>Rusell Martin’s framing abilities will be counted on to help Liriano turn his season around and to offer a players&#8217; perspective in the Sanchez shutdown debates.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Blue Jays Insist that Orioles Acquire Wade Miley</h3>
<p>With few high level arms available via trade this season, the market demand for starting pitching saw general managers acting like Canadian house hunters in their attempt to secure rotation upgrades.</p>
<p>Understanding that the Blue Jays’ best chance at success lies in having hurlers like Wade Miley pitch against the club rather than start for it, the team wisely decided against acquiring a back of the rotation innings-eater. While Jose Bautista and company may have been actively petitioning the club to acquire pitchers at the deadline in years past, the Jays’ offence is likely asking for more opportunities to face off against this year’s crop of trade targets.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Trade Drew Storen to Seattle for Slightly Older Drew Storen</h3>
<p>The Drew Storen experiment didn’t work out in Toronto. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the once-excellent Storen lost enough miles per hour on his fastball that he was unable to pitch effectively.</p>
<p>Instead of waiting until the end of the year to cut ties with Storen, Atkins shipped him to Seattle last week in exchange for Joaquin Benoit , a reliever with a similar record of long term success and short term struggles. The best-case scenario is that Benoit returns to form and the Jays have another reliable bullpen arm. The worst-case is that Blue Jay fans will get to spend a few innings a week wondering the same thing they did when Storen was pitching: Is he really this bad now? And, can he turn things around? Consistency is important.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro skillfully added talent to both their major and minor league teams without subtracting any significant pieces from the current roster. Lost in these upgrades, were a series of intangible improvements that often go unnoticed &#8211; beard depth is just as important as pitching depth. It might not be exciting but it was productive. If you still don’t think the Blue Jays did enough at the deadline, you can always count Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins playing the outfield as new additions too…right???</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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