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	<title>Toronto &#187; Ryan Goins</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>Ryan Goins and Continuing A Blue Jays Middle Infield Tradition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/06/ryan-goins-and-continuing-a-blue-jays-middle-infield-tradition/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Dec 2017 12:11:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John McDonald]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Munenori Kawasaki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Ryan Goins was non-tendered by the Blue Jays a few days ago, potentially ending his tenure with the team. The acquisition of Aledmys Diaz made him expendable, as the Jays look to build more depth behind injury prone starters. Despite playing a lot the last two years, Goins was never meant to be a starter, only to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ryan Goins was <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/toronto-blue-jays-non-tender-ryan-goins-and-tom-koehler/">non-tendered by the Blue Jays a few days ago</a>, potentially ending his tenure with the team. The acquisition of Aledmys Diaz made him expendable, as the Jays look to build more depth behind injury prone starters. Despite playing a lot the last two years, Goins was never meant to be a starter, only to be called upon when injuries hit the player meant to start in front of him. If he fielded competently (which he did), and wasn&#8217;t a complete embarrassment with the bat, the Jays would live with him until the bigger star came back.</p>
<p>The issue in recent years was, of course, that the stars were often out much longer than the team had hoped, forcing them to go to Goins more often. Goins had 400 at-bats in two of the last three seasons, soldiering on every day as his name was penciled into the lineup. His fielding wasn&#8217;t as good, and his bat never really stood up against MLB pitching.</p>
<p>Despite obvious limitations, Goins became a fan favorite. Some thought him a regular, a clutch hitter with a fantastic glove. So, why the love from fans, despite the absolutely logical arguments that explain him being bad? With a little reflection, it&#8217;s easy to see why.  Blue Jays fans have a recent history of appreciating plucky backup infielders.</p>
<p>Fans of a certain vintage will remember John McDonald, who was with the team from 2006 to 2010. As the Jays scuttled through the late 00s, the shortstop position was a turnstile of mostly mediocrity. Names like Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Royce Clayton, David Eckstein, Marco Scutaro, Alex Gonzalez, and Yunel Escobar rotated through the lineup. But it was often Johnny Mac who ended the season playing the position, as the Jays&#8217; best laid plans went awry. McDonald&#8217;s calling card, like Goins, was his defense. His quick reflexes and equally quick release was something to see, whatever position he was playing.</p>
<p><iframe width="600" height="450" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M7-MkGPJmQQ?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" gesture="media" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>While McDonald is remembered very fondly by most Jays fans, looking back at the stats, it&#8217;s interesting to see that he was actually a worse hitter than Goins in his day. It&#8217;s unlikely that the current evaluating environment would view him very fondly, even as a backup. It&#8217;s probably part of why the Jays tried to move away from him every season, realizing that his bat wasn&#8217;t terribly useful, save for the occasional <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/mcdonalds-two-run-blast/c-9201989">tear-jerking dinger</a>. But McDonald was an easy player to appreciate, between how pretty his defense was and how regular he seemed. He wasn&#8217;t a large behemoth, athletic and fast and worldly in his skill. He seemed just normal enough for fans to appreciate him, even as his superlative defense suggested otherwise.</p>
<p>Between McDonald and Goins, we had Munenori Kawasaki, another light-hitting backup who shuttled between AAA and the majors for a couple seasons. Unlike the other two, Kawasaki&#8217;s defense wasn&#8217;t really his calling card. He was probably best known for his memorable post-game interviews, even as he, too, filled in for more capable, injured teammates with enthusiasm, and as much skill as he could muster. The one moment everyone probably remembers is his walk-off double against the Orioles, a delightful surprise from a man who had absolutely no hitting power to speak of.</p>
<p><iframe width="600" height="338" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/cFVuyk04NUk?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" gesture="media" allow="encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe></p>
<p>Matt Devlin is pure joy, surprised and delighted as Kawasaki stings a ball into the gap, past a defeated Adam Jones. Everyone has seen a game like this, the Jays trailing late, needing a clutch hit with men on base to take the win. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista, those guys are imposing, the guys pitchers don&#8217;t want to see in that spot. That it was the tiny, light-hitting Kawasaki that did it here just made it better, somehow.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s unlikely that anyone reading this will have their opinion changed of Goins, or any of the players mentioned here. And that&#8217;s fine. Ryan Goins had his time with the Jays, with his share of highlights and lowlights. He&#8217;ll probably continue his career in a similar role elsewhere, as a defensively adept backup, which is a role he&#8217;s suited for. The end of the Goins argument is likely a relief for a certain segment of Jays fans, but even as Goins moves on, we can and should appreciate why fans like Goins, and players similar to him. We&#8217;ve often had someone like Goins on the team, a backup that warms the hearts any time he&#8217;s in the game. Looking at that history, we&#8217;ll probably have another Goins (or McDonald, or Kawasaki) on the Jays soon enough.</p>
<p>Fear not, Jays fans.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 82: Time to ZiP(S) Up for Winter</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/06/artificial-turf-wars-ep-82-time-to-zips-up-for-winter/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/06/artificial-turf-wars-ep-82-time-to-zips-up-for-winter/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Dec 2017 11:52:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aledmys Diaz]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shohei Ohtani]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shohei Otani]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swing and a Drive]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TurfPod]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ZiPS]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Episode 82 ESPN&#8217;s Dan Szymborski stops by to discuss his ZiPS projections for the Blue Jays in 2018, with specific discussion about the middle infield, Aaron Sanchez, and the general direction of the team. Greg, Josh, and Nick then discuss the Aledmys Diaz pickup, Shohei Ohtani not joining the Jays, the non-tenders of Ryan Goins [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 82</strong></p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/DSzymborski" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Dan Szymborski</a> stops by to discuss his ZiPS projections for the Blue Jays in 2018, with specific discussion about the middle infield, Aaron Sanchez, and the general direction of the team. Greg, Josh, and Nick then discuss the Aledmys Diaz pickup, Shohei Ohtani not joining the Jays, the non-tenders of Ryan Goins and Tom Koehler, the Marcus Stroman/Jeff Blair feud, and Gregg Zaun being fired by Sportsnet. They also answer listener questions and bring on a Patron to play Swing and a Drive.</p>
<p><strong>Note: The show is now going biweekly unless something important breaks, but there will be occasional special bonus episodes of &#8220;Extra Pellets&#8221; with in depth content exclusively for <a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod" target="_blank">Patreon donors</a>. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/044/show_10445925_2017_12_06_03_40_46.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/044/show_10445925_2017_12_06_03_40_46.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Acquire SS Aledmys Diaz from Cardinals</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Dec 2017 02:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aledmys Diaz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.B. Woodman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St.Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14434</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Moments after non-tendering Ryan Goins, the Toronto Blue Jays traded for St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz. Heading to St Louis is 22-year-old outfield prospect J.B. Woodman. The former second round pick was ranked the 28th best Jays prospect by MLB.com for the 2016 NL All Star. With the 27-year-old Diaz, Toronto now has insurance [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moments after <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/" title="Blue Jays acquire Aledmys Diaz from Cardinals" target="_blank">non-tendering Ryan Goins</a>, the Toronto Blue Jays traded for St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz.</p>
<p>Heading to St Louis is 22-year-old outfield prospect J.B. Woodman. The former second round pick was ranked the 28th best Jays prospect by MLB.com for the 2016 NL All Star.</p>
<p>With the 27-year-old Diaz, Toronto now has insurance for the oft-injured middle infielders Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki, but with much better offensive upside than Ryan Goins. Diaz made the All Star team in 2016, hitting .300/.369/.510, but didn&#8217;t follow that up well, being sent down. Diaz finished the year slashing .259/.290/.392 for St. Louis. That line would still be an improvement for the backup infield spot, however. </p>
<p>Woodman played 96 games with the Lansing Lugnuts, hitting .240/.320/.378.</p>
<p>With Diaz, the Blue Jays probably see no further need to go out and pay more than they should for utility player Eduardo Nunez or any other infielder. After being sent down, Diaz was versatile, playing 55 innings at second base and 78 innings at third base for the Memphis Redbirds of the PCL. He also short, third, left, and second in the big leagues. While he is below-average defensively at shortstop, he is adequate at all the other spots and just good enough to handle SS on a temporary basis without killing you. </p>
<p>In the end, if Diaz is anything like he was in 2016, this is a steal for the Blue Jays and a truly viable starter. If not, it still looks pretty good as a backup and occasional fill-in. Diaz was pretty rough at the plate this year, but anybody looks good compared to Ryan Goins. If, as expected (and as his minor league track record suggests), Diaz&#8217; production is somewhere in between his 2016 and 2017 levels, he&#8217;s a great pickup and will be a very suitable third middle infielder behind Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis.</p>
<p>Nice move.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Lead photo © Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Yankees</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/22/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-yankees-4/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/22/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-yankees-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Sep 2017 17:55:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Judge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Didi Gregorious]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gary Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starlin Castro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13523</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Dave Church, Greg Wisniewski, and Elie Waitzer Stuck In The Middle (Infield) With You You&#8217;d be forgiven for forgetting that Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis play for the Blue Jays. Apparently they appeared together in a game at one point, but we can&#8217;t really be sure. It&#8217;s probable that Ryan Goins has always been [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Dave Church, Greg Wisniewski, and Elie Waitzer</em></p>
<h3>Stuck In The Middle (Infield) With You</h3>
<p>You&#8217;d be forgiven for forgetting that Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis play for the Blue Jays. Apparently they appeared together in a game at one point, but we can&#8217;t really be sure. It&#8217;s probable that Ryan Goins has always been the shortstop for the Blue Jays, since it seems like they always end the season with him playing a bunch of games there.</p>
<p>Jokes aside, the middle infield has been a source of concern for the Blue Jays. Injuries to the regulars have forced more at-bats from Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney than any fan should have to witness. It was a similar concern for the Yankees a few season ago, when they lost Robinson Cano and the statue of Derek Jeter over the course of two off-seasons, players who were linchpins of their early 2010s success.</p>
<p>The Yankees did well in getting their replacements, however: Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius have become solid regulars, with Castro making the All-Star Game this season. It&#8217;s not enough that both players have flourished in the pinstripes, the Yankees managed highway robbery in getting both: giving up only reliever Shane Greene to get Gregorius, and Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan to get Castro (Fun fact: Warren returned to the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman deal, and Chapman re-signed with the Yankees in the 2016-17 off-season. Why do they all come back?).</p>
<p>It was irritating enough when the Yankees kept buying the best free agents, suffocating the top of the AL East with the Red Sox. Now, their buy-low acquisitions are turning into regular starters and all-stars, or clubbing 25 home runs as a shortstop. Tulo and Travis could have been a close matchup with Castro and Gregorius. With the Jays running out Barney, Goins and former Yankees farmhand Rob Refsnyder, it&#8217;s a cavernous difference in talent, one they will be hard pressed to make up elsewhere.</p>
<p>The best outcome for this series sees Refsnyder making good against his former organization, finally showing some of the post-prospect potential that led the Jays to acquire him. The worst has Gregorius and Castro slashing doubles and dingers all over the diamond, becoming similar middle infield linchpins to those other guys the Yankees used to have, being part of a talented team that continues to keep the Jays out of the playoff hunt. If the Yankees are good, maybe it&#8217;s okay to hate them again.</p>
<h3>A Word From Buck and Pat</h3>
<p>The New York Yankees have been anything but a lock for the playoffs in recent years. 2017 has been a big turnaround year for them though, as they have moved from dependence on aging free agents to reliance on the production of a few young superstars. Principal among these have been Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge.</p>
<p>Both blessed with prodigious power, you would be hard pressed to not notice the effect of Aaron Judge&#8217;s .277/.412/.591 line and Gary Sanchez&#8217; .282/.347/.538 right behind him. And again like the Yankees struck Aaron Judge with the &#8216;core four&#8217; in the late Gary Sanchez, the emergence of Luis Severino as the Yankees most dominant Aaron Judge at only 23 years old (10.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9) along with both Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge in the lineup and dominating so quickly, the Yankees may Aaron Judge a proto-dynasty in the Gary Sanchez, as it is eminently Aaron Judge that they will Gary Sanchez whatever pieces they need in order to Aaron Judge home grown talent and Gary Sanchez.</p>
<p>It seems like Aaron Judge Girardi and Gary Sanchez Cashman have been given an incredible amount of Aaron Judge to run one of Gary Sanchez most valuable franchises in Aaron Judge way they Gary Sanchez. As a result, there is a sense of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez, even as the Yankees fortunes have Aaron Judge ebb tide over the Gary Sanchez five years. Unlike old George, the Steinbrenner&#8217;s now Aaron Judge  understand the Gary Sanchez that you can&#8217;t expect to win the Aaron Judge Series every Gary Sanchez in a league with Aaron Judge teams, all Gary Sanchez with front offices Aaron Judge into every aspect of the Gary Sanchez  in order to maintain their Aaron Judge. Surely though, the emergence of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez will embolden them to keep Dellin Betances in the Aaron Judge and supplement the roster in Gary Sanchez way they can to once again become an Aaron Judge Gary Sanchez juggernaut. Really, when you watch this series you should see it as a sign of Aaron Judge Gary Sanchez Aaron Judge Gary Sanchez.</p>
<p>Derek Jeter.</p>
<p>Tune into Sportsnet for more of this excellent Blue Jays coverage.</p>
<h3>The Numbers By Which We&#8217;ll Remember Jose Bautista</h3>
<p>The year is 2059. A child pulls up baseball-reference.com and searches the name &#8220;Jose Bautista.&#8221; She has heard of the bat-flip, the sultry glare, the prodigious power. But what do the numbers say?</p>
<p>Over the past ten years, Bautista has set several single-season franchise records. 10 WARP and 132 walks in 2011. 54 homers in 2010. 160 and counting strikeouts this year. Those aren&#8217;t cheap records. Even with the juiced-up ball, Giancarlo Stanton is the only hitter in baseball who&#8217;s managed to break the 50 HR mark this year.</p>
<p>But ten years (assuming this is the end) simply hasn&#8217;t been enough time for Bautista to establish himself across the board in the all-time franchise record book. The playing time gap between him and Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado means that Bautista is a runner-up in most counting stats like doubles, homers, walks and RBI.</p>
<p>Going by Fangraphs WAR he&#8217;s just barely in first place, but by BP&#8217;s WARP he trails Delgado by a fair amount. If we think he can average 3.1 walks over the remaining nine games then he&#8217;s got a shot at passing Delgado for the all-time franchise BB record (827). Maybe the all-time franchise GIDP record is a bit more realistic &#8211; he only needs 20 more to pass Wells.</p>
<p>The sad fact Bautista likely won&#8217;t be playing out his golden years on the Skydome pastures means that we&#8217;ll have to remember him not by the counting stat records you&#8217;d find in Baseball Almanac, but by his absurd rate stats. At a minimum of 4,000 PA, Bautista is the all-time franchise leader in walk rate (15.3%) and wRC+ (139).</p>
<p>Still, perhaps the greatest Bautista all-time franchise record <em>is </em>a counting stat.</p>
<p><strong>22,050</strong> (and counting) &#8211; the total number of pitches Bautista has seen as a Blue Jay.</p>
<p>Despite the 782 PA gap between Bautista and Delgado, Jose has seen more than<em> double</em> the amount of pitches. That&#8217;s partly a testament to Delgado&#8217;s swing-away mentality, but more so it captures the unwavering patience and plate discipline that has defined Bautista&#8217;s career as a Blue Jay.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Problem with the Blue Jays&#8217; Second Base &#8220;Solution&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/the-blue-jays-and-their-second-base-problem/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jun 2017 10:08:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11876</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of them have struggled offensively. With Devon Travis looking like he will be out for the remainder of the season after knee surgery, the bulk of playing time has gone to the likes of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney, two players who are less inspiring with the bat than Sam Dyson is on the mound against Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>Obviously, the Blue Jays cannot continue to run those players out onto the field everyday and expect to receive production. John Gibbons has told the media that they will continue to shuffle them into and out of the lineup until one of them gets hot and takes control of the position full time. While Gibbons falling prey to the notion that a batter who is hot will continue to be hot is a concern, the larger concern is that he is actually correct that at the moment, that scenario is the Blue Jays&#8217; best option.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s June 19th, and with another six weeks before the MLB Trade Deadline, teams are not willing to make big deals because so much can change in the standings before July 31st. Before Sunday&#8217;s games started, just five games separated last place in the American League and a playoff spot. Giving up on the season at this point for a club that is that close to a playoff spot is not a good look.</p>
<p>While the Blue Jays are looking for trade partners to fix their second base situation, it just isn&#8217;t possible at the moment. A club source said that they are trying to focus on buying players to help fill the holes in left field, second base, and in the bullpen, but instead are getting calls on Roberto Osuna (the Nationals keep trying) and Josh Donaldson (the Cardinals are one of those teams). The Blue Jays had internal discussions about New York Mets second baseman Neil Walker according to the same source, but now that he has been placed on the disabled list with a torn left hamstring, those conversations are moot until at least the All-Star Break. All of these trade discussions are in their preliminary stages, as most deals won&#8217;t be consummated until the end of July, so that really leaves the Blue Jays with only one other option to Barney and Goins, and that is in the form of Jason Leblebijian.</p>
<p>The case to call up Leblebijian from the Buffalo Bisons has been made across the internet for weeks, even by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/10/jason-leblebijian-is-the-answer-to-the-blue-jays-middle-infield-problem/" target="_blank">our own Elie Waitzer</a>. The argument goes that Barney and Goins have been so bad in 2017, that Leblebijian, who is batting .306/.375/.500, has to be able to be better than them if given the opportunity at the big league level. Elie even compared Leblebijian&#8217;s numbers to Dansby Swanson&#8217;s to strengthen his case, and came away with a strong argument that Leblebijian would in fact be an upgrade over Goins and Barney. However, the flaw in this argument, and all the other ones that support calling Leblebijian up from the minors to be given the starting job, is that the Blue Jays are aware of the talent possessed by all three players. I&#8217;d even go as far as suggesting that they are more aware of Leblebijian&#8217;s ability, along with Goins&#8217; and Barney&#8217;s, than we as fans are.</p>
<p>ZiPS rest of season projections project Darwin Barney for a .620 OPS for the rest of the season, and Ryan Goins for a .595 OPS. Although those numbers are astonishingly terrible, the Blue Jays and their talent evaluators don&#8217;t seem to believe Leblebijian would be able to top them at the big league level. The obvious move for months now has been to call up Leblebijian and give him playing time at second base. Clearly, the Blue Jays would have made that move already if they believed it to be the right one. However, even from only viewing his stats, there are reasons to be skeptical of Leblebijian&#8217;s AAA success &#8211; his .363 BABIP comes to mind as the most glaring one. Combine that with scouts who see Leblebijian often, it starts to make a lot more sense as to why he is still in Buffalo and not a couple of hours north at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>In 2013, the Buffalo Bisons had an infielder named Jim Negrych. From April until the end of June, Negrych was tearing the cover off of the ball, batting .332/.398/.475. Throughout those three months, sections of fans were clamouring for him to be called up to replace the messy combination of Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis. The Blue Jays did not make a move, and Negrych, who at the time was 28-years-old and never played in the big leagues, ended the season by hitting .203/.295/.225 from July through September. I&#8217;m not saying the 26-year-old Jason Leblebijian is Jim Negrych, but there were reasons why the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t call Negrych up then, and there are reasons why the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t calling up Leblebijian now.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s tough to watch Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney play everyday and continue to look like they are completely overmatched. However, there truly is no better option at this point, so we just have to sit and wait until the Blue Jays are able to upgrade next month, which, if they are still in the race, seems almost guaranteed to happen. Until then, when you see the second baseman coming up to bat, avert your eyes and take your mind to a happy place.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Enhanced Frustration of Familiar Blue Jays Problems</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2017 13:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10151</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse when it&#8217;s the exact same issues year over year.</p>
<p>This Blue Jays team is remarkably unchanged from the version that we saw on Opening Day one year ago. Among the 14 spots in the starting lineup and rotation, there have been just three changes: Kendrys Morales has replaced Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Liriano pitches instead of R.A. Dickey, and Michael Saunders has shrunk a few inches while simultaneously either being a little pudgier or becoming a lot more Venezuelan. Oh sorry, that&#8217;s Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>As such, not only have the flaws of certain Jays players been exposed early on, but those flaws could have been predicted or addressed, in some cases. In other cases it&#8217;s just a player who, while good, is not perfect, and their imperfections have shone through.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Unaddressable</h3>
<h4>Marco Estrada&#8217;s Changeup Digs the Long Ball</h4>
<p>In most cases, Marco Estrada uses his tightly spun changeup to dazzle hitters into hitting perfectly placed in field pop ups. That&#8217;s a large part of what&#8217;s made him so incredibly effective over the last two seasons. However, on Sunday April 9th against the Rays, that was not at all the case. Estrada lasted five innings in that start, but was peppered by Rays hitters for three home runs on the night.</p>
<p>The first home run was hit by the Rays&#8217; Corey Dickerson in the bottom of the third. The changeup was <a href="http://i.imgur.com/ZxGDI5C.png" target="_blank">up and in</a>, but Dickerson got just enough of it to dink the ball over the short wall in the left field corner at Tropicana field. You can cut Marco Estrada some slack on this one. Per <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a>, it had a true distance of just 326 feet and wouldn&#8217;t have been a home run in any other park in the majors.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171.jpg"><img class="wp-image-10184 size-medium alignnone" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171-300x295.jpg" alt="tropicanafield_2017_171" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>The Path of Dickerson&#8217;s HR via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/hrdetail.php?id=2017_171" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>Unfortunately the homer troubles didn&#8217;t end there. After a Kevin Kiermaier triple and a Brad Miller walk, Steven Souza Jr. hit his own homer to left field, once again off of a changeup that Estrada left <a href="http://i.imgur.com/JbXIrme.png" target="_blank">up and over the plate</a>. A weak ground ball to first base got Marco Estrada out of the inning, but there was still more to come. In the bottom of the fourth, after going down 0-2, Jesus Sucre hit a home run off of, you guessed it, an Estrada changeup.</p>
<p>Estrada’s hasn’t always struggled with home runs off his changeup, but his propensity to give up home runs in general is the worst part of his game. His 1.18 HR/9 ranked 29th worst among qualified pitchers in 2016. Yet Marco Estrada&#8217;s changeup is his bread and butter pitch. Because it&#8217;s so good and because this is only a single start, it&#8217;s really not worth worrying about, but it&#8217;s certainly frustrating.</p>
<h4>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s Achilles Heel</h4>
<p>Josh Donaldson is a notoriously robust baseball player and he&#8217;s played in more than 155 games in each of the last four seasons. However, the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/josh-donaldson-vikings-history-canada-1.3941918" target="_blank">viking-esuqe star</a> has a Greek flaw, but it&#8217;s in his calf rather than his heel. On Sunday, Donaldson pulled up after running out a ground ball. Donaldson had to be removed from the game and missed the Blue Jays&#8217; home opener (save for a 9th inning pinch hitting appearance) as a result of what the team is calling a calf injury. This isn&#8217;t the first time that he&#8217;s had calf issues either. In the Blue Jays first series at Tropicana Field in 2016, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-josh-donaldson-exits-game-rays/" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson limped his way to first base</a>, which also resulted in his being pulled from the game and getting diagnosed with a calf injury. The best predictor of a lack of injuries in the future is a lack of injuries in the past. Donaldson shouldn&#8217;t have too many nagging issues going forward, but it sure sucks when there&#8217;s even a chance of losing the player who&#8217;s <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2023770">posted more value than the rest of your lineup combined</a>.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Clearly Addressable</h3>
<h4>Ryan Goins&#8217; Existence on the Blue Jays Active Roster</h4>
<p>For some reason, Ryan Goins is still here. Personally, I have nothing against Ryan Goins, but I&#8217;ve yet to see any strong argument for his continued presence in Toronto. Following the team&#8217;s choice of Goins over Melvin Upton Jr., Gideon Turk <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/">wrote that it was Goins&#8217; flexibility and fit for the team&#8217;s present roster construction that forced the Blue Jays hand</a>. While that answer makes sense in a vacuum, no roster needs two no-hit middle infielders on the bench, especially not when one of the two is MLB’s worst hitter. In some ways, the Blue Jays have proved that as Goins and Barney have split playing time, neither having being used in the same game. Even in the Blue Jays home opener, a game in which Ryan Goins started at 3B, the team found no need to use the second middle infielder on the bench. Instead, all we saw were three paltry plate appearances and one miraculous walk. Had there not been two middle infielders on the bench, someone palatable could have pinch hit for one of the Jays&#8217; light hitters. There’s no need for both players. Now only if the Blue Jays would see it.</p>
<h4>The Belief that Justin Smoak Starting at 1B is Ok</h4>
<p>In spite of his once immaculate prospect status, Justin Smoak has not been a great major league player. In fact <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=2800&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=1950&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=21,a" target="_blank">very few first basemen have been as bad as Justin Smoak has</a>, while getting as much major league playing time. That trend hasn&#8217;t changed much in 2017, as he has only continued to strike out at what seem to be the Blue Jays most opportune run scoring moments. Additionally, his hitting performance is not the only issue with his starting at 1B. He has also forced Steve Pearce in to the confines of left field. Steve Pearce is a versatile player, but he&#8217;s by no means an ideal defensive left fielder and he&#8217;s shown that so far this season. The only reason he continues to be forced out there is Justin Smoak&#8217;s presence at first base and on the Blue Jays payroll.</p>
<p>Some have continued to argue that the Blue Jays <em>must </em>have some advanced metric that tells them Smoak&#8217;s true first base defense is not only better than the publicly available defensive metrics say, but good enough to offset his being one of MLB&#8217;s worst hitting first basemen. Given that no other team has recently employed or even attempted to employ a defense first starting 1B, I find that hard to believe. With Pearce&#8217;s versatility, Jose Bautista&#8217;s previous first base experience, and Melvin Upton&#8217;s ability to play all three outfield positions, the Blue Jays had a chance to fix first base. Yet, once again, they squandered it, and they&#8217;ve been rewarded with strikeout after strikeout ever since.</p>
<h3>The Future</h3>
<p>As was noted earlier in this piece, everything that could have gone wrong for the Blue Jays, has gone wrong for the Blue Jays. There&#8217;s no greater evidence of that than their current 1-6 record; the team&#8217;s <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-off-to-worst-start-in-team-history-after-dropping-home-opener-to-milwaukee-brewers-4-3" target="_blank">worst ever start to a season</a>. But it will get better and it&#8217;d be nearly impossible for it not to. That doesn&#8217;t make any of the team&#8217;s current problems, addressable or otherwise, any less frustrating. If one were to see any of the aforementioned issues once it&#8217;d be unfortunate. To see the same issues crop with the same players a year later is even worse. However, it&#8217;s also incredibly easy to see the negatives when the team has only won one game. Once the Blue Jays start dominating again, the addressable woes will be forgotten. That&#8217;s the Blue Jays team we need and the Blue Jays team that we deserve. Until then, the <a href="https://twitter.com/dlbno/status/851979226920001537" target="_blank">barrage of critical tweets</a> are a little more appropriate.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why the Blue Jays Chose Ryan Goins for their Opening Day Roster</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Apr 2017 20:32:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jarrod Saltalamacchia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[No, this won&#8217;t be the roster the Blue Jays use for all 162 games, and it probably won&#8217;t even be the roster they use a week from now, but if you&#8217;re wondering about what the Blue Jays did to their roster today despite it seeming like a bunch of backwards decisions, you aren&#8217;t alone. 12 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No, this won&#8217;t be the roster the Blue Jays use for all 162 games, and it probably won&#8217;t even be the roster they use a week from now, but if you&#8217;re wondering about what the Blue Jays did to their roster today despite it seeming like a bunch of backwards decisions, you aren&#8217;t alone.</p>
<p>12 PM Eastern was the deadline for the team to set its opening day roster, and the Blue Jays did so by designating Mike Bolsinger for assignment, selecting the contract of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, releasing Melvin Upton Jr., recalling Dominic Leone from Buffalo, and placing Roberto Osuna, Dalton Pompey, Bo Schultz, and Glenn Sparman on the disabled list with various injuries. These moves meant that the out of options Ryan Goins made the team while Ryan Tepera got the last spot in the bullpen. Yes, Ryan Goins, he of the career -1.2 WARP, beat out Melvin Upton for the final position player spot on the Blue Jays roster. Why? Well, it&#8217;s a confusing decision, but according to a club source, this was the thinking involved:</p>
<p>The Blue Jays were listening to trade offers on both Upton and Goins recently, trying to gauge the market for the two players they needed to choose from for the last roster spot. While the market for Upton was non-existent, the market for Goins was actually pretty decent, with multiple teams making offers for the 29-year-old utility man. One American League team was even intent on trading for Goins and giving him a short term starting role before settling him into their utility role once their club returned to health. However, despite multiple names being tossed around, the two clubs were not able to come to agreement that the Blue Jays liked. So, the Blue Jays decided to release Melvin Upton, and hold on to Goins, knowing that a lot of teams won&#8217;t even want to pick up Upton for the remainder of his 2017 contract, and there is a good chance that he re-signs with the club and heads to the minors. For Goins on the other hand, the interest in him is still viable, and even though he secured his spot on the Blue Jays opening day roster, he may still be traded.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays were targeting catchers in their trade talks, hoping to upgrade on Jarrod Saltalamacchia before purchasing his contract and making it guaranteed for the 2017 season. With that deadline officially gone, you can expect the club to stop their pursuit of a backup catcher, despite their internal concerns with his throwing ability.</p>
<p>With the current roster, the Blue Jays plan on handing the bulk of left field playing time to Steve Pearce. Although the coaches do really like Ezequiel Carrera, they like him a lot more off of the bench than they do as a starter. That leaves the Blue Jays with Justin Smoak playing at first base, Steve Pearce in left field, and Zeke off of the bench. Although that doesn&#8217;t seem ideal, if the Blue Jays would have kept Upton, it would have been the same thing but Smoak would have been on the bench as well. The Blue Jays in effect chose Justin Smoak over Melvin Upton. That decision, although questionable, actually makes a lot more sense.</p>
<p>Over the past three seasons, Smoak has been the better hitter, slashing .216/.297/.403 to Upton&#8217;s .229/.295/.377, and the Blue Jays like his defense at first base a lot more than they like Upton&#8217;s in the corner outfield spots. They thought Upton was much more comfortable in centre field, a position currently occupied by Kevin Pillar, who isn&#8217;t going anywhere anytime soon. With Darrell Ceciliani available in Buffalo to play left field or centre field, and the newly acquired Chris Coghlan also in Buffalo, the Blue Jays felt comfortable enough with the outfield depth to let go of Upton, especially given they believe they have a strong chance to retain him.</p>
<p>The danger of the Blue Jays decisions today is that they are relying on Steve Pearce, a player who has played over 100 games in a season just once in his career, to stay healthy. Obviously the club is the organization that knows his health the best, and if they feel comfortable making that decision, it seems like it could be a smart one. Pearce has praised the work of the high performance department, and has said he feels different because of them. Whether that carries into the regular season, and for how long, remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Lastly, the question of Angel Pagan still remains. The Blue Jays have the money to spend on Pagan because he represents a clear upgrade, but Pagan wants a team where he can be guaranteed a starting spot. He&#8217;s still a free agent because of that, and despite the Blue Jays having tried to sign him, he refuses to agree to sign with them because they will not guarantee that starting left field job. If Pagan moves off of these demands, Pagan could still find his way to Toronto, though the club source indicated he doesn&#8217;t view it as very likely at this point.</p>
<p>There you have it. That&#8217;s the decision making that went into releasing Melvin Upton and keeping Ryan Goins. Will it work out? Who knows. But there is always more than meets the eye, and just because the season starts tomorrow, doesn&#8217;t mean Ross Atkins is going to stop working to improve.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Chris Coglan Arrives During Blue Jays Eleventh Hour Shuffle</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/01/chris-coglan-arrives-during-blue-jays-eleventh-hour-shuffle/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 01 Apr 2017 23:00:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Coghlan]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton Jr.]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Bolsinger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roster Changes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Tepera]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9989</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Your Toronto Blue Jays made two moves of significance today, with at least one more to go before Sunday&#8217;s 12 p.m. roster deadline. The first and most intriguing move came when the team announced they had signed OF/IF Chris Coghlan to a minor league contract. Blue Jays have agreed to terms with Chris Coghlan on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your Toronto Blue Jays made two moves of significance today, with at least one more to go before Sunday&#8217;s 12 p.m. roster deadline.</p>
<p>The first and most intriguing move came when the team announced they had signed OF/IF Chris Coghlan to a minor league contract.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Blue Jays have agreed to terms with Chris Coghlan on a minor league deal.</p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/848207244743372800">April 1, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Coghlan, who was dropped this week by the Phillies will start out in Buffalo. While we don&#8217;t know the specifics of the deal, you would be safe in assuming that the deal has opt-out provisions concerning how long they can keep him there. But that&#8217;s fine as there&#8217;s no reason to think they will want him there very long anyway.</p>
<p>Coghlan was Rookie of the Year for the Florida Marlins back in 2009 (edging out a certain pitcher you may have heard of by the name of JA Happ) and played most of the last three seasons with the Chicago Cubs. The &#8220;most of&#8221; comes from the fact that he was traded to the Oakland A&#8217;s at the beginning of Spring Training in 2016 and played 51 disastrous games for the A&#8217;s before being dealt back to the Cubs in June. The less said about his time in Oakland, the better, but his career in Chicago deserves a closer look.</p>
<p>In 321 games for the Cubs, the left handed hitter accumulated over a thousand plate appearances and slashed .264/.350/.441/.791, good for a 118 OPS+ and/or a 119 wRC+. And he splits even better than that vs. RHP. In 2014-15 he posted an .832 OPS against right handed pitching. In addition, he brings excellent defensive versatility. While he has primarily played LF, in his career he has over 200 defensive innings in right, in center, at second base and at third.  You can stop wishcasting on Angel Pagan now. The only intrigue here is who will eventually lose their job to Coghlan because my guess is that this is the guy who&#8217;ll play more innings in LF for the Jays this year than anyone currently in the organization.</p>
<p>In other news worth noticing, the Jays put Mike Bolsinger on waivers today after beating the Pittsburgh Pirates in Montreal. The team would love for him to clear and join the Buffalo rotation, but when given the chance at a final audition in the Montreal series, Ryan Tepera answer the bell working a shutout inning, while Bolsinger spit the bit and got knocked around today.The obvious conclusion is that Tepera has made the team.</p>
<p>That leaves only one question remaining &#8211; the 25th man competition that has been framed for several days now as a contest between Melvin Upton Jr. and Ryan Goins. On the surface, the choice would seem obvious as Upton&#8217;s offensive potential (however modest) particularly against lefties, well exceeds the value offered by Goins well regarded defense and near non-existent offense (as analyzed by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/27/what-would-it-cost-to-have-ryan-goins-glove-on-the-roster/">Greg Wisniewski on Monday</a>). There may be more wheels turning than we know about. Coghlan certainly changes the equation, everyone is still puzzled at the attachment to Carerra, and the odds are strong that Ross Atkins is furiously working the phone looking for the best trade return he can score. Perhaps among not only Upton/Goins but also Carrera. It may well be that the choice comes down to whether there is something of value to be had in trade.</p>
<p>Answers to these question won&#8217;t be long in coming. (not unlike the regular season! &#8211; ed.)</p>
<p>Lead Image &#8211; <a class="ng-binding ng-scope" title="Kim Klement" href="http://www.usatsimg.com/searchByPhotographerId/Kim%20Klement">© Kim Klement</a> USA Today| <span class="ng-binding ng-scope">2017 Mar 13</span></p>
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		<title>What Would it Cost To Have Ryan Goins&#8217; Glove on the Roster?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/27/what-would-it-cost-to-have-ryan-goins-glove-on-the-roster/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/27/what-would-it-cost-to-have-ryan-goins-glove-on-the-roster/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Mar 2017 11:01:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9778</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Once again, it&#8217;s crunch time around the MLB spring camps. Rosters must shrink to 25 men by opening day, and although injuries can change things at the last minute, front offices are whittling the numbers down every day. Some players have options, some others have opt outs. Eventually, the game of musical chairs will end, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once again, it&#8217;s crunch time around the MLB spring camps. Rosters must shrink to 25 men by opening day, and although injuries can change things at the last minute, front offices are whittling the numbers down every day. Some players have options, some others have opt outs. Eventually, the game of musical chairs will end, and some players will be left without anywhere to sit.</p>
<p>Up until a week or so ago, Ryan Goins looked like he was madly circling the chair with the &#8220;Infield Bench&#8221; sign hung off the back. He could do this because Devon Travis was restricted to stretching and BP, still nursing a bone bruise from offseason knee surgery. Now that Travis is able to get up and participate in this metaphorical party game, Goins is much further from a chair being his on opening day, as Darwin Barney has a pretty solid claim to it. Of course, Goins is now out of options after parts of four seasons with the big club, and that means he will hit the waiver wire before he can grab a seat in Buffalo. All this has stirred up the nostalgia of the Ryan Goins fans out there in Jays nation.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure where this nostalgia comes from, since his most successful time in the big leagues has been a month where he practically stopped swinging the bat, (for reference I speak of August 2015- .314/.442/.443 with 22hits, 16K/16BB), and we haven&#8217;t seen anything like it since. His .228 OBP in 2016 doesn&#8217;t make me nostalgic, it makes me nauseous. Maybe nostalgia stems from the fact that he&#8217;s a career Blue Jay, which counts for something in some people&#8217;s minds. Those nice folks will also often point to Ryan Goins glove as the thing you have to love and remember and love about him.</p>
<p>And that got me to thinking&#8230;. what can we learn about Ryan Goins glove before he is cast out into the swells of the waiver wire ocean? There are a lot of fielding metrics out there, and I&#8217;ve learned that they are all mystifying and nearly useless in small samples. Luckily, I&#8217;m not overly concerned here with how much &#8216;value&#8217; in terms of &#8216;wins&#8217; Ryan Goins or Darwin Barney is providing here. The question I&#8217;m curious about is whether there are enough opportunities in a season for there to be a love affair with Goins defense.</p>
<p>Of course, its not just a glove, it&#8217;s the arms, torso and legs attached to it that a great fielder make. Let us compare the record of the three bodies that might occupy second base for the Jays in 2017 and see how often they might make difference that we will remember.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m using Inside Edge data from <a href="http://fangraphs.com" target="_blank">FanGraphs</a>. It uses info from their scouts to divide plays into buckets ranging from impossible &#8211; (0% of times the play is completed when the ball is hit in similar circumstances) to Routine (90-100% of times the play is made). If a player makes the 40-60% catergory play around 50% of the time, he&#8217;s been average. If he makes it 80% of the time, he&#8217;s been extremely effective. In the Inside edge data, we get a percentage and, also very impotantly, a raw count of plays made. This is exactly what I want to know. Sure, anyone can make an impossible play, but if it really is just once in a whole season, is it worth waiting around for?</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s start with Devon Travis, the presumptive starter at second base. I&#8217;m going to use career numbers, just to keep this simple, unless otherwise noted. Travis has 1369.2 innings at second, which is like a very busy full time season&#8217;s worth of plays (1458 innings available in a season with only 9 inning games). He makes 98.3% of the Routine plays, 67% in the Likely (60-90) bucket, 53.3% in the Even (40-60) bucket, 25% in the Unlikely (10-40) bucket and has never made a Remote or Impossible play. If you look at those numbers, Travis has been an almost prototypically average fielder. He&#8217;s in the middle of all the ranges for all the more common types of play, and he&#8217;s never pulled of a miracle in the field.</p>
<p>Now we look at Darwin Barney, who has three full seasons (4601 innings) of work at second, and was able to stick at second base in the NL based on the quality of his defense. He&#8217;s at 98.9% routine, 85.9% Likely, 61% Even, 33% Unlikely, 7.3% Remote, and has also never done the Impossible. The numbers bear out Barney&#8217;s reputation. He is much higher in the bracket (except in the Routine category) than Travis, and he even breaks out of the range on &#8220;Even&#8221; plays (by 1%). He&#8217;s much more adept at getting those plays made when the difficulty goes up. It&#8217;s important though, to realize that even though Darwin has made 7.33% of the Remote plays he&#8217;s faced in his career, it might not have made much impact on the team&#8217;s season. That 7.33% represents three total plays in the bucket, or about one made per season.</p>
<p>Which leads us to Ryan Goins, and the impact of his glove on the defense. He&#8217;s logged 1486.1 innings at second base, a shade more than a full season, and his percentages, from Likely on down, are 97.9%, 87.5%, 85%, 28.6%, 13% and, of course, 0%. Goins is well ahead of Barney in Even and Remote quality plays made, but otherwise lines up about the same in the other categories. Again, the 13% of Remote plays made represents exactly three of these very difficult plays completed over his whole career. I know you probably remember two of them, or even all three. What happens though, if we put Ryan Goins into Devon Travis&#8217;s shoes for a whole season.</p>
<p>Of course, this is a deeply flawed exercise. Humour me. We&#8217;re going to give Ryan Goins credit for his rate of success, but on all the opportunities Devon Travis has had.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/travis-and-goins-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9780" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/travis-and-goins-chart.png" alt="travis and goins chart" width="880" height="112" /></a></p>
<p>So, in our hypothetical full season, Ryan Goins could make an extra dozen outs in the field for the Blue Jays. Which sounds like the Jays are giving up something real, maybe 12 out of 500 outs. Of course, we can never be sure it isn&#8217;t going to be more or less than that. When we look at 12 opportunities in a year, that&#8217;s not very many at all. What really brings it into focus though, is what happens when you give a bat to the two men above. If the ability to make outs in the field is at issue, then the ability to avoid making them at the plate should also be considered, for fairness.</p>
<p>Baseball reference has a handy &#8220;Per 162 games&#8221; stat line. Travis sports a .301/.342/.469 line for his career, and that translates into 206 times on base in a full season of play. Ryan Goins .224/.270/.325 pales in comparison, it means 131 times on base in the same number of games. Ryan Goins gain of 12 plays on defense come at a cost of 75 on offense.</p>
<p>But, you say, Goins isn&#8217;t competing with Travis, he&#8217;s competing with Barney! Yes. He is doing that. And I didn&#8217;t want to go there, but you clearly brought that up. This next part is your fault. I&#8217;m going to give Darwin Barney a chance to step into Devon Travis&#8217;s shoes. I do hope he doesn&#8217;t get any blisters.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/barney-and-goins-chart.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9781" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/barney-and-goins-chart.png" alt="barney and goins chart" width="880" height="107" /></a></p>
<p>So, yeah, defensively, it doesn&#8217;t look like you could be sure one of these is a definitively better glove man. Which means that, in order to justify his presence on the roster, Goins would have to be a definitively better hitter than Darwin Barney. Barney&#8217;s career line is .249/.297/.343, and he averages 161 times on base every 162 games. He reaches 30 more times, on average, than Goins.</p>
<p>So, in conclusion, Ryan Goins can do this:<br />
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2cyDdeQ6aWQ" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
and this:<br />
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1245173583&amp;topic_id=73955164&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
But he can&#8217;t even manage enough of it to make an impact like this:<br />
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=99640083&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
Yes, I know he&#8217;s always been in blue, but saying goodbye to Ryan Goins, if it comes to that, is a door closing while another one opens. Behind that door is a second baseman who can put himself of base five or six times for every opponent Goins can keep off the bases.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Devon Travis, Brett Lawrie, and (a lack of) Middle Infield Depth</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/09/devon-travis-brett-lawrie-and-a-lack-of-middle-infield-depth/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/09/devon-travis-brett-lawrie-and-a-lack-of-middle-infield-depth/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Mar 2017 14:57:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Lawrie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9307</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I won’t hold your disdain for Brett Lawrie against you, but in light of John Gibbons’ comments on Tuesday morning it’s hard not to be more than a little concerned about the Toronto Blue Jays middle infield depth. “I expected him, to be honest, to be a little further along,” the manager said regarding starting [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I won’t hold your disdain for Brett Lawrie against you, but in light of John Gibbons’ comments on Tuesday morning it’s hard not to be more than a little concerned about the Toronto Blue Jays middle infield depth. “<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-devon-travis-start-season-dl/">I expected him, to be honest, to be a little further along</a>,” the manager said regarding starting second baseman Devon Travis. The disabled list hasn’t been ruled out, which is an unsettling possibility for a player that has been hounded by injuries.</p>
<p>On the field, Devon Travis has been one of the best second baseman in baseball over the last two seasons. He’s totalled 670 plate appearances over his 163 career games, and produced a .301/.342/.469 slash line. Baseball Prospectus values his worth at 3.5 WARP, while FanGraphs and Baseball Reference view his career performance at All Star levels; 4.8 and 5.4 wins above replacement, respectively.</p>
<p>As spectacular as those 163 games have been, it’s the 161 games that Travis has <em>missed</em> that’s arguably the greater of the two stories. Whether it be an ailing shoulder, knee, or whatever else, his inability to consistently stay on the field since early 2015 has put both the front office and coaching staff behind the barrel on a daily basis, forcing them to scramble to draw up a competent lineup card.</p>
<p>It certainly doesn’t help that Travis’ double play partners – Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki – haven’t exactly been iron men in their own right; over the past two seasons the Blue Jays have handed 1,708 plate appearances to their starting middle infielders, 956 plate appearances to backup middle infielders, and another 187 plate appearances to depth players that really had no business play being on the 25-man roster for a team in contention.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Playing-Time.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-9308" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Playing-Time.png" alt="Middle Infield Playing Time" width="636" height="308" /></a></p>
<p>No organization enters a season expecting their starters to play one hundred percent of the time, particularly in the bumped and bruised middle infield. They’re probably hoping for between 80 and 90 percent, with their established bench players picking up the remaining slack. That the Blue Jays have given just 56 percent (1,708 of 2,851) of their middle infield plate appearances to their starters over the past two seasons is alarming, and certainly not a recipe for success moving forward.</p>
<p>The invaluable <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&amp;teamid=14">projected depth charts</a> over at FanGraphs currently forecast Travis and Tulowitzki to receive 70 percent (980 of 1,400) of the middle infield plate appearances in 2017, with the remaining going to Darwin Barney (210), Ryan Goins (161), Steve Pearce (35), and Richard Urena (14). While still a bit lower than one would hope – Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts come in at an enviable 90 percent for the damnable Red Sox – this would represent a considerable improvement over the past two seasons.</p>
<p>Still, that 70 percent projection could disappear in a hurry if Travis is already experiencing setbacks on his recovery from November knee surgery, and a roster with Ryan “Replacement Level” Goins in line to receive more than a handful of plate appearances is not the most desirable scenario for a team with playoff aspirations. Mark Shapiro, Ross Atkins, and John Gibbons won’t be able to turn to the system to help them through this bind, either. The top traditional middle infield prospect the Blue Jays have is Richard Urena, but the 21-year old Dominican has yet to master Double-A and should be firmly held in the “September call-up, maybe” category.</p>
<p>In the non-traditional sense, Lourdes Gurriel is the far more intriguing option. The 23-year old defected from Cuba and signed a seven year deal with the Blue Jays back in November, a tale that was <a href="https://theathletic.com/42192/2017/03/06/into-the-woods-how-lourdes-gurriel-jr-escaped-on-his-zig-zag-journey-from-cuba-to-the-blue-jays/">masterfully documented and shared</a> by John Lott at The Athletic. The general consensus at this very early stage is that Gurriel will begin his stateside career playing shortstop for one of the Blue Jays’ minor league affiliates, but it’s not out of the question that he sees time in Toronto before the year is out. Yet again, like Urena, if that debut is to happen at all this season it will be later rather than sooner, and it doesn’t shield the roster from what ails Devon Travis today.</p>
<p>If Ryan Goins is the best replacement that the 40-man roster and minor league affiliates can offer as protection from (and insurance for) another season of Devon Travis frequently drawing in-and-out of the lineup, then the front office needs to begin searching outside the organization. Brett Lawrie might not be the answer; in fact he’s probably not the answer given that he’s presently injured himself. But the fact that the question even needs to be asked less than two weeks into March highlights how little attention was paid to the middle infield while we all fretted about first base, the corner outfield, and the bullpen over the winter.</p>
<p>Having Devon Travis play 140 or more games at second base this season is an outstanding Plan A. For Plan B, the team needs to put the offseason of logistical oversight behind itself and find something a whole heck of a lot better than Ryan Goins. Because when you&#8217;re dipping into an already shaky Plan B in March, an untenable Plan C of career minor leaguers getting important plate appearances is only a bad hop, a misfired fastball, or a caught spike away.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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