<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Toronto &#187; Royals</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/tag/royals/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 03:35:47 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>Recap: Royals 7, Blue Jays 1; Bloops, Bunts, and Blasts Beat Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/07/recap-royals-7-blue-jays-1-bloops-bunts-and-blasts-beat-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/07/recap-royals-7-blue-jays-1-bloops-bunts-and-blasts-beat-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2016 21:05:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5271</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays dropped the rubber game of a three game set to Kansas City on Sunday afternoon as the offense once again failed to deliver in a 7-1 defeat at the hands of the reigning champs. Marcus Stroman was bested by Yordano Ventura and the Jays failed to take advantage of their nine baserunners [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays dropped the rubber game of a three game set to Kansas City on Sunday afternoon as the offense once again failed to deliver in a 7-1 defeat at the hands of the reigning champs. Marcus Stroman was bested by Yordano Ventura and the Jays failed to take advantage of their nine baserunners on the day in a disappointing end to the road trip.</p>
<p>Stroman struggled to deal with Royals Baseball<sup>(TM)</sup>, victimized by bloops and bunts and only exacerbated the problems with some mistakes of his own. In the second inning Stroman fielded a weak comebacker after issuing a leadoff walk to Kendrys Morales. Stroman fired high on what should&#8217;ve been a double play and allowed Alex Gordon to reach on a fielder&#8217;s choice. Two singles and an RBI bunt (plus a Stroman throwing error) later, Kansas City took a 2-0 lead. A leadoff home run in the fifth inning from Alcides Escobar accounted for the other run off Stroman on the day. His final line reads 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K on 95 pitches.</p>
<p>Scott Feldman worked a clean sixth but ran into trouble in the seventh. The Royals came back out and collected three straight hits (one bunt, of course) off of Scott Feldman to load the bases with no outs. After a strikeout of Lorenzo Cain, Brett Cecil came in to try and put out the fire. He struck out Eric Hosmer and then conceded a two out grand slam to Morales to put the game away.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays had runners on in five innings but only had one make it to third base. With just one hit since the fourth inning, the team wasted four walks from Ventura and failed to drive in any runs. The lone run of the day came in the seventh when Darwin Barney scored on a wild pitch. It was a deflating day for the Blue Jays who could muster only six hits in dropping the series finale.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The top play of the day came in the second inning when backup catcher Drew Butera poked a soft liner into the outfield to cash in Alex Gordon. Gordon was the batter who reached thanks to Stroman&#8217;s bad throw on a double play attempt. That misfire cost Stroman in the end, as Butera&#8217;s RBI single notched a 0.128 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play of the game also came in the second inning when Alcides Escobar grounded into a strange double play. With runners on second and third, Escobar grounded out sharply to Edwin Encarnacion at first. Butera held up at third but Raul Mondesi foolishly took off from second base. Encarnacion astutely ran Mondesi to third and forced Butera to head home where he was tagged out by Josh Thole after a brief rundown. The play was good for a -0.094 WPA.</p>
<h3>Devon Travis Still Swinging</h3>
<p>The sophomore second baseman pushed his hitting streak to four and has hit safely in nine of his last eleven games. Travis entered Toronto&#8217;s July 10th game against Detroit with a .262 batting average but has climbed all the way up to .293. Since that day he&#8217;s hit .355 with four home runs and 10 RBI. While the rest of the team is slumping, Travis has been excelling at the top of the lineup. He looks to have reclaimed the leadoff role and will hopefully continue to provide a steady on-base presence atop the order.</p>
<h3>Offensive Outage</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays are going through something of a late-summer swoon as of late, having scored just 17 runs on this seven game road trip. If not for the hot streak of Travis, the team might be looking at a very different week in the rearview mirror. The strikeouts piled up in Houston and it felt like the Jays couldn&#8217;t catch a break in Kansas City. Whatever the case, the team will try to leave those troubles behind and get back on track with a brief homestand.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Despite dropping two of three to Kansas City, the Blue Jays will be satisfied with a 4-3 record on their road trip through Houston and KC. The team returns home tomorrow to kick off a three game set with the Tampa Bay Rays. R.A. Dickey (8-12, 4.49 ERA) will toe the rubber against right hander Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 3.70 ERA) with first pitch scheduled for 7:07 PM EST.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/07/recap-royals-7-blue-jays-1-bloops-bunts-and-blasts-beat-blue-jays/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Dish Best Served Cold: Royals Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/a-dish-best-served-cold-royals-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/a-dish-best-served-cold-royals-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 Jul 2016 15:48:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4321</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays Monday, July 4th &#8211; Wednesday, July 6th Written by Molly Tisseunbaum and Kyle Matte For the first time since the 2015 ALCS, the Jays and Royals will square off as Kansas City comes to town for a three game set at the Rogers Centre. Expect the atmosphere to be very charged, with plenty of visible emotion, especially at the outset of this series. Yordano Ventura isn&#8217;t [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Monday, July 4th &#8211; Wednesday, July 6th</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/mollytissenbaum/" target="_blank">Molly Tisseunbaum</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/kylematte/" target="_blank">Kyle Matte</a><br />
</em></p>
<p>For the first time since the 2015 ALCS, the Jays and Royals will square off as Kansas City comes to town for a three game set at the Rogers Centre. Expect the atmosphere to be very charged, with plenty of visible emotion, especially at the outset of this series. Yordano Ventura isn&#8217;t pitching, so it shouldn&#8217;t get ugly, but it will definitely be tense. The Royals were looking good after taking three of four in a home and home series against state rival St. Louis, but then they dropped two of three to the lowly Phillies, so they come in on a low note. The Jays, on the other hand, are coming off a couple of big wins against the previously streaking Indians, including a 17-1 laugher in the finale. None of that will likely matter though, and this series should be a good one.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, July 4th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Edinson Volquez</strong></p>
<p>Volquez stifled an impressive Cardinals offense the last time he took the mound, which most certainly allowed both he and Royals management to breathe a massive sigh of relief. When facing the Houston Astros in his prior appearance, Volquez had nothing working, allowing eight hits, three walks, and an incredible twelve earned runs while recording just three outs &#8212; one of the worst starts in the history of baseball.</p>
<p>Volquez is about as steady as they come with respect to pitch usage; for every four he throws, you&#8217;re getting two fastballs, one curve, and one changeup. It&#8217;s the ideal kit for a starting pitcher, and over the last few years Volquez has found just enough command of the three pitches to be a valuable contributor. Over his career, the dynamics between the three have led to a very balanced approach to both righties and lefties, but he&#8217;s run into a spell of trouble against same sided batters this season. Over 218 plate appearances, righties have hit .292/.353/.431 against Volquez, with much of the damage coming against his fastball (.364 BAA) and curveball (.262 BAA). Remarkably, it&#8217;s been the changeup that&#8217;s best kept them in check (.194 BAA); his approach against the right handed-heavy Blue Jays will be something to watch.</p>
<p>Marco Estrada proving that 2015 wasn&#8217;t a fluke is a great story, but at least in this writer&#8217;s eyes, Aaron Sanchez has been the Blue Jays most dominant starter this season. He experienced a bit of a hiccup three weeks ago against the Orioles &#8212; an issue that was exasperated by Gibby&#8217;s insistence on getting his starter through five innings for the &#8220;win&#8221; &#8212; but has otherwise been nothing short of a revelation. Sanchez has seen his strikeout rate has climb from 16.1 to 22.0 percent, all the while his walk rate has plummeted by a third from 11.6 to 7.8 percent. The scary part is that the difference between the two figures is just middle of the pack among qualified starters &#8212; there&#8217;s still so much room to improve.</p>
<p>Against right handers, Sanchez has done it in typical Sanchez fashion, shoving mid-90&#8217;s fastball after mid-90&#8217;s fastball down their throat. But he&#8217;s shown an exciting level of finesse against lefties, sequencing in a lot more curveballs and changeups, particularly with two strikes, while locating them magnificently. The fastball is an absolute monster, but we and the rest of the baseball world already knew that. It&#8217;s the development of the curveball that has allowed Sanchez to transcend from &#8220;fifth starter candidate&#8221; to &#8220;potential American League All Star&#8221;, the latter of which could become a reality in very short order.</p>
<h4>Tuesday, July 5th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>R.A. Dickey vs Chris Young</strong></p>
<p>If you&#8217;re not a fan of metrics like FIP, this is the dream matchup for you. The 6-foot-10 Chris Young has career marks of a .248 BABIP and 76.0 percent strand rate over 1,236 innings, both of which are well outside the normalized range for starting pitchers and have allowed his ERA to beat the fielding independent metrics basically every year. Young created a strong, twelve-year career through an alarmingly deceptive four seam fastball, but for whatever reason,  in year thirteen, the right hander has decided to make his slider his primary offering, throwing it 50.27 percent of the time in 2016. In doing so Young has boosted his strikeout rate, which is nice, but more critically, batters are absolutely teeing off.</p>
<p>Among starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, Young is first in home runs per nine innings (3.43/9) &#8212; <em>well </em>ahead of Alfredo Simon in second place (2.36/9) &#8212; and is third in home run per fly ball rate (23.7 percent). Third place is bad, but it doesn&#8217;t come close to telling the full story. In descending order, here are the groundball rates of the worst ten pitchers by HR/FB: 55.6, 55.0, 28.0, 49.0, 51.6, 52.7, 51.8, 44.8, 55.9, 49.1. At 28.0 percent, Young is on an island by himself. He gives up more fly balls than just about everyone, and through twelve starts, his fly balls have been going a lot further than just about everyone. An uncomfortable combination for the Royals; a juicy one for Blue Jays sluggers this series.</p>
<p>Over R.A. Dickey&#8217;s last five starts he&#8217;s allowed ten home runs, bringing his season total to 19 &#8212; tied for the 4th most in baseball. Thankfully for both Dickey and the Blue Jays, 16 of 19 have happened with the bases empty, allowing the knuckleballer to post his second consecutive sub-4 ERA month in June despite causing a constant and stifling level of frustration. The interesting thing is, if you look at velocity, movement, release point, location &#8212; just about anything &#8212; Dickey&#8217;s knuckleball has more or less been the exact same all season. Such is the life of a novelty pitch. The Kansas City Royals are 27th in baseball with just 72 home runs, so if Dickey can keep Salvy, Morales, and Hosmer within the ballpark, he has a favorable matchup with a good chance at a promising start to his July.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, July 6th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs Ian Kennedy</strong></p>
<p>The Royals winter signing of Ian Kennedy to a five year, 70 million dollar contract &#8212; at the additional expense of a draft pick &#8212; was much maligned, and his return to the American League after a six year expedition out west has gone about as well as anticipated. The strikeouts and walks have remained due to his outstanding command and devastating changeup, but his flat-as-a-pancake fastball hasn&#8217;t translated to the deep, imposing lineups and bandbox stadiums in the junior circuit. It was mentioned that Dickey is tied for 4th in baseball in home runs allowed, and one of the three ahead of him just so happens to be Kennedy. He&#8217;s allowed 20 this season, bringing his total to 51 since the beginning of 2015. When the Royals picked up Kennedy their strategy was likely that a spacious Kauffmann Stadium and a defensively gifted outfield of Alex Gordon, Jarrod Dyson, and Lorenzo Cain would protect the right hander. Unfortunately, even Gold Glovers can&#8217;t catch fly balls that are ten rows deep.</p>
<p>Over five June starts, opposing batters crushed Stroman for a combined triple slash line of .357/.423/.573, leading the would-be ace to enter a period of self assessment. The ever-evolving Stroman has emerged from this struggle once again a new man, as while he&#8217;s still throwing his sinker about 50 percent of the time, what he&#8217;s done with the other half of his pitches has changed drastically. The cutters and changeups are almost completely gone, the four seam fastball has begun to resurface, but most importantly, the devastating slider that made him a strikeout artist through college, the minor leagues, and his exciting 2014 rookie season is returning to form.</p>
<p>After throwing it in the low-to-mid 80&#8217;s over the first two and a half months, Stroman is reaching back for something extra, averaging an impressive 88 miles per hour with his slider over his last four starts. Over that time period he&#8217;s thrown 70 sliders; batters have swung at 37 and whiffed on 15 &#8212; resulting in an impressive 40.5 percent whiff per swing rate. That rate is near-elite; if sustained, it would rank in the top fifteen sliders among right handed starting pitchers. The current iteration of the Stro Show entails low sinkers, <em>lower</em> sliders, and the occasional high four seam fastball. Only time will tell if this is the recipe for success, but the first audition against Cleveland was a pass with flying colors.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>On July 2nd, after a 19-inning game on Canada Day, the Blue Jays made four changes to the roster. They placed Ryan Goins on the 15-day disabled list with right forearm tightness and optioned Bo Schultz to Buffalo, and in corresponding moves, they recalled RHP Drew Hutchison and LHP Aaron Loup, both from Buffalo. The expectation was that Hutchison would go right back down to the minors following his ineffective inning in relief, but Marco Estrada&#8217;s back issues have kept him up with the big club. Estrada is going for an MRI monday, which should help the Blue Jays decide on a next course of action.</p>
<p>The Royals have made no <em>recent</em> changes to their roster, but they are playing without center fielder and three-hole hitter, Lorenzo Cain. Cain strained his hamstring toward the end of June and had to make a trip to the disabled list. This is a lucky break for the Jays.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Kendrys Morales<br />
</strong></p>
<p>Morales is coming off a huge month of June for the Royals. In the month of June he hit .402, with a .453 OBP and a slugging percentage of .655. He had seven doubles, five homerun and 18 RBI over that same stretch. Morales is hitting .344 with runners in scoring position this year. With Cain out, Morales will be sitting in the three-hole in front of Eric Hosmer, so he&#8217;s going to be a pivotal out for the Jays pitching staff. Unfortunately, he can be tough to match up as he is a switch-hitter with no real platoon splits in his career (though he is doing much better against lefties this year).</p>
<p><strong>Jason Grilli<br />
</strong></p>
<p>Grilli picked up his first win as a Blue Jay on Saturday, but it was far from the first big outing for the veteran righty. Since coming over from Atlanta, Grilli has given up just nine hits and three earned runs in 11.2 innings, with a whopping 21 strikeouts. At the Rogers Centre he&#8217;s particularly tough, holding hitters to a measly .130 batting average and just one run in 7 1/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. With his emergence as a right-handed setup option and Brett Cecil&#8217;s return from the DL, the back end bridge to Roberto Osuna doesn&#8217;t seem quite as shaky as it did a couple of weeks ago.</p>
<p><strong>Troy Tulowitzki<br />
</strong></p>
<p>It seems the real Troy Tulowitzki has finally stood up. Since his return from the disabled list, Troy Tulowitzki has been absolutely on fire. In that 13 game span he has hit .321/.373/.698 with six home runs and two doubles. He has also chipped in 14 RBI and played his usual stellar defense at shortstop. If he has finally turned things around for real, this offense could really take off.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Kansas City Royals</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Ezequiel Carrera-RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Alex Gordon-LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Devon Travis-2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Whit Merrifield-2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Josh Donaldson-3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Kendrys Morales-DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Edwin Encarnacion-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Eric Hosmer-1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Michael Saunders-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Salvador Perez-C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Russell Martin-C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Paolo Orlando-RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Troy Tulowitzki-SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Alcides Escobar-SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Justin Smoak-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Cheslor Cuthbert-3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Kevin Pillar-CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Jarrod Dyson-CF</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will need a few strong performances out of their starters after the beating the bullpen took in the Indians series. They got some help from J.A. Happ in the finale, but still could use a deep start from Aaron Sanchez in the opener. There is also a statement to be made for the Blue Jays, as the last time the Jays saw the Royals they were celebrating a berth in the World Series.</p>
<p>Lead Photo: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/a-dish-best-served-cold-royals-preview/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Revisiting J.A. Happ&#8217;s Offseason Contract</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:00:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ian Kennedy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marlins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wei-Yin Chen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yovani Gallardo]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him from locking down a starting job. Although, there were a few memorable moments in his Jays career. As one example, Happ made the Opening Day rotation in 2013 as a result of Ricky Romero&#8217;s sudden decline. That was certainly memorable. Whether it was bad luck or his own inconsistency, Happ was never able to cement his place in the Jays’ rotation during his time with Toronto. This had been an established pattern throughout his career. 2015 was the first season in which he’d made more than 30 starts, and only the third time he’d appeared in more than 30 games.</p>
<p>Having the security of a three year deal will make Happ’s place in the rotation much more certain. Teams don’t pay $12 million dollars a year for a swing-man. The deal may have seemed suspect at the time, but rest of the offseason has made Happ&#8217;s contract look much better. Here are a few of the other comparable pitchers that signed this offseason. (Note: All numbers in the tables are 2015 totals)</p>
<h3>Happ and Wei-Yin Chen</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-99 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png" alt="HappChen" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Once I sat down to write this piece, Chen was the first comp to spring to mind. They’re both left-handers with some experience pitching in the AL East, and a reputation for not pitching deep into games. Looking at their career numbers rather than 2015, Chen is also someone who has historically out-performed his FIP, while Happ has generally undershot it. As well, Chen has been reliable for the Orioles, while Happ has tormented organizations with potential. Chen also has the benefit of moving from the competitive American League East to the less competitive National League East, while Happ is transitioning back to the AL after his time in Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>As for contracts, Chen signed a five-year deal with the Marlins worth $80 million dollars, which works out to an average annual value of $16 million per season. He will also cost the Marlins their second-round pick, as he declined a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. However, Chen is also a few years younger than Happ, which likely factored in to his getting a longer deal.</p>
<p>In a vacuum, Wei-Yin Chen is the better pitcher, and his going to a more favorable situation can’t hurt. With that said, his contract also gives him much more leverage with the opt-out after two seasons and the vesting option after six. The Jays, who would have had to give up their first rounder, were probably not seriously considering Chen at that price.</p>
<h3>Happ and Yovani Gallardo</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-101 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png" alt="happgallardo" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Despite his being effective against the Jays during the season, there were few free-agent pitchers that made Jays fans less excited than Gallardo. Though the baseball card stats (13-11, 3.42 ERA over 33 starts) look fine at first glance, there were several other things that hampered Gallardo’s value prior to his signing a contract with the Orioles. For one thing, his strikeout rate has cratered over the last several years, finishing 2015 at an ugly 5.9 K/9. For another, even though he made 33 starts, Gallardo didn’t throw many innings, averaging out at less than six per start. The last time Gallardo threw more than six innings in a start was June 27th, and that start was the only time all year he threw more than seven. Gallardo’s 2015 was his seventh full season in the Major Leagues, having notched 1473 innings in his career.One wonders if the miles on his arm are contributing to the waning strikeout rates and stamina.</p>
<p>The money (<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/possible-snag-in-deal-between-orioles-yovani-gallardo.html">and initially failed physical</a>) bore that out as Gallardo signed a two-year deal with the Orioles for $22 million, with a club option that could bring the total value of the deal up to $35 million. He did also cost the Orioles their first round selection, which would have been the 14<sup>th</sup> overall pick. They do get a compensation pick back with Chen signing with the Marlins, but it still ends up as a slight loss for them as they got a pitcher who&#8217;s probably going to be worse than Chen this year.</p>
<p>In the end, from only the stats, the balance of Gallardo’s career so far is certainly better than Happ’s. However, the declining innings and strikeouts from Gallardo, combined with his costing the Orioles a first round pick makes the Happ deal look like a better call. Does Gallardo’s contract being shorter make it better? Maybe, but teams generally shouldn’t throw away a first round pick for two years of a clearly declining starter.</p>
<h3>Happ and Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-100 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png" alt="HappEstrada" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>The 2015 statistics are different, but we clearly see two pitchers who&#8217;ve had similar career paths. Estrada, like Happ, has been inconsistent, previously bouncing in and out of the rotation with the Brewers. This seemed like it was going to continue in Toronto, as Estrada started the season in the bullpen, but he soon made his way into the rotation. Once that happened, the rest was history. He established himself as one of the Blue Jays’ best pitchers, posting career bests in starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts; leading to a 10<sup>th</sup> place finish in Cy Young voting. After that season, Estrada, like the others on this list, had the dreaded qualifying offer hanging over his head, which hampered his value. Despite having a better year, he signed for similar money to Happ.</p>
<p>If we look solely at the 2015 stats, it appears that the Jays got a bargain with Estrada. However, as is the case with the other players we&#8217;ve looked at, trends and the body of work are important. In comparison to others in this piece, Estrada simply didn’t have the track record of success before coming to the Blue Jays. They acquired him for Adam Lind in the 2014-15 offseason; a player the Brewers &#8220;liked&#8221; so much that they moved him to the Mariners prior to this season. While the qualifying offer didn&#8217;t severely hamper the market for Chen and Gallardo, it did for Estrada. Though, that also could have been a few troubling trends. Estrada&#8217;s FIP was the second-highest he’d had in a full season in the big leagues, and despite a career low ERA, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Estrada thrived on a fantastic change-up, and it will be interesting to see if an off-season of preparation can help the league adjust to him. Nevertheless, Estrada and Happ provide similar value for the Blue Jays in 2016, with Estrada probably being a little bit better.</p>
<h3>Happ and Ian Kennedy</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-102 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png" alt="HappKennedy" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This offseason, Ian Kennedy got five years and $70 million dollars from the Royals. This came after a season wherein he lost 15 games and had a 4.26 ERA. Oh&#8230;and and he’ll cost the Royals their first round pick. That’s not a joke. That actually happened. Of course, the Royals are coming off of two World Series appearances&#8230;so it&#8217;s hard to criticize that front office too much. Maybe it&#8217;s mechanical: Edinson Volquez had his best year with the Royals, spotting 96 mph fastballs on the corner against the Jays during the postseason. If they fixed Volquez, maybe they think they can fix Kennedy.</p>
<p>Kennedy was successful as recently as 2014, when he notched 13 wins, 201 innings, and a nice enough 3.63 ERA. He hasn&#8217;t always been bad. He’s also made 30 starts for six consecutive years, which is something to note in an age of increased pitcher injuries. As well, he did post a 9.3 K/9, which is a nice number from a starter. However, he&#8217;ll probably never reach the heights of his 2011 season in Arizona, when he finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, as he&#8217;s moving into the American League. The formerly touted Yankees prospect is more of a durable journeyman at this point. Although, given the construction of their team&#8230;maybe that’s what the Royals were looking for?</p>
<p>They have built fantastic bullpens, year after year, and maybe all they wanted was a pitcher who can go six innings and pass the ball off. As the Royals’ pick is somewhere in the 20s, a lost first rounder probably didn&#8217;t trouble them as much. Even then it’s still one less draft pick, spent on a pitcher who&#8217;s had one good season in the last three. Ultimately, this one’s the easiest to argue for the Jays, as Kennedy’s almost certainly a worse pitcher than Happ, save for that durability.</p>
<h3>Happ and David Price</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-103 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png" alt="HappPrice" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This is a hilariously unfair comparison for several reasons. David Price, by any measurement, is much, much better than J.A. Happ, and got way more money. The Red Sox didn’t even need to give up a draft pick to get him, as Price was acquired by the Blue Jays in a mid-season trade. One might use Happ’s stretch with the Pirates as a comparison, but playing the arbitrary endpoints game at the trade deadline is disingenuous at best. Taking the best stretch of Happ’s career and comparing it to an elite level starter&#8217;s usual output is a shaky attempt to justify the cavernous drop off from Price to Happ.</p>
<p>The reason Price is on this list is solely because he was the one whom Jays fans compared Happ to when he was signed. After spending prospects to get Price at the deadline, and watching him dominate down the stretch, fans (and I count myself in this group) harbored dreams of him staying with the Jays after his contract expired. Price certainly said all the right things about wanting to stay, but given how much he was going to cost, it was unlikely that he was going to return.</p>
<p>There were other holes for the Jays to fill, and future problems to consider. Estrada was a free agent, Mark Buehrle’s reliable 200 innings departed, and they had a club option on knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, leaving up to four potential vacancies in Toronto’s rotation. With an arbitration raise coming to MVP Josh Donaldson, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion’s respective free agencies looming after this season, committing $30 million+ per season to David Price just didn’t make a lot of sense. There are times when spending for high-end talent is the right call, but for the Jays, already stocked with a lot of great players, spreading the wealth around was much more pragmatic.</p>
<p>In the clear light of day, and with real baseball that counts just around the corner, we can look back and see that the J.A. Happ contract was fine&#8230;perhaps even good with how the pitching market developed. Seeing that potentially lesser pitchers signed for more money and cost draft picks, the Jays moving quickly on Happ looks much better. However, coming down from the high of David Price, it’s easy to see how Happ would have seemed disappointing earlier on in the offseason. It didn’t help that Happ had a prior history with the Jays; a history that some fans remember all too well (for the wrong reasons).</p>
<p>J.A. Happ isn’t exciting. He’s not an ace. He’s not someone you can reliably pencil in for 200 innings. He&#8217;s not someone who&#8217;s going to contend for the Cy Young every year. J.A. Happ is a multi-grain bagel with butter for breakfast: it&#8217;s okay, it gets the job done, but it’s not much fun, and you’re not really looking forward to it. David Price was the cinnamon roll with sugary frosting: delicious, enjoyable, and something you want to have again, even if it isn&#8217;t a great long-term decision for your health. If there’s something we’ve all learned growing up, it’s that taking the bagel is probably the smarter move.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
