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	<title>Toronto &#187; Rowdy Tellez</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays 2017 Farm System in Review: The Hitters</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/18/blue-jays-2017-farm-system-in-review-the-hitters/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/18/blue-jays-2017-farm-system-in-review-the-hitters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Sep 2017 10:59:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bo Bichette]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cavan Biggio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Jansen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hagen Danner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Logan Warmoth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Reese McGuire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Richard Urena]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Riley Adams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vlad Guerrero Jr.]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Vancouver Canadians are champions of the Northwest League. The Dunedin Blue Jays are co-champions of the Florida State League. The Bluefield Blue Jays and the DSL Blue Jays made post-season appearances. While there were some setbacks, on the whole, the system was replete with success stories. Let&#8217;s review. The Canadians made post-season magic on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Vancouver Canadians are champions of the Northwest League.<br />
The Dunedin Blue Jays are co-champions of the Florida State League.<br />
The Bluefield Blue Jays and the DSL Blue Jays made post-season appearances.</p>
<p>While there were some setbacks, on the whole, the system was replete with success stories. Let&#8217;s review.</p>
<p>The Canadians made post-season magic on the strength of shutdown pitching while the tired offense struggled. They went 5-1 in the post-season, winning four of those five by a score of 2-1. &#8220;Big&#8221; Nate Pearson racked up 14 strikeouts in eight innings pitched over two starts, allowing a single run; The piggyback combination of Zach Logue and Justin Dillon (who regularly pitched together this season) combined for 13 innings pitched giving up only two earned runs while striking out 21 in the two games in which they appeared. More impressive yet, the Canadians&#8217; bullpen combined for 25 innings pitched, while giving up one earned run, striking out 31, and walking only five.</p>
<p>The D-Jays had to settle for co-champion status after Hurricane Irma forced the FSL to cancel their championship series. After losing game one, they played a double header against the Tampa Yankees and won both ends behind dominant pitching from T.J. Zeuch and Jordan Romano.</p>
<p>Now, with team news out of the way, I&#8217;ll turn my attention to individual performances. In part one I&#8217;ll review the hitters, by position, and in part two we&#8217;ll take a look at the pitching.</p>
<h3>Catchers</h3>
<p>This is arguably the most well stocked position in this section which is, frankly, a weird thing to be saying about the Blue Jays.  I reviewed this position at some length <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/28/blue-jays-minor-league-report-a-cornucopia-of-catchers/">a few weeks back.</a> To that analysis I will only take the time to add this bit of information I discovered about <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=596069#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Max Pentecost</strong></a>.</p>
<p>If this guy had not had shoulder issues, he might well have already suited up in Toronto. Every quote I&#8217;ve seen from Jays staff is a rave review. He got a gentle re-introduction to catching this season and in light of a recently published comment in which he described finding it harder to stay focused when he wasn&#8217;t behind the plate, I decided to take a deeper look at this season. For starters, they never had him catch back-to-back games, and he only played 72 games in all due to injuries (apparently unrelated to the shoulder, but injury info on prospects is very difficult to access) including missing the last 3+ weeks of the season. What I found was that the results, albeit in a small sample, support his observation. He played 20 games behind the plate, 22 at first and was the DH 30 times. Here&#8217;s his respective slash lines at each position:</p>
<p>In 81 AB as a catcher: .358/.381/.654/1.035<br />
In 86 AB at first base: .196/.250/.337/.587<br />
In 121 AB as a DH: .273/.348/.422/.780<br />
Overall in 288 AB: .274/.330/.431/.761</p>
<p>This is probably just noise, but maybe it means something? We&#8217;ll have to see.</p>
<p>My prediction is that <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=643376#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Danny Jansen</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=624512#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Reese McGuire</strong></a> will begin 2018 sharing time in Buffalo with a high likelihood that one or both will see time in Toronto. Pentecost will slot in at AA and I expect<a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=656180#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong> Riley Adams</strong></a> to leapfrog to Dunedin while the <strong><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=670394#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Ryan Gold</a>/<a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=660857#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Yorman Rodriguez</a></strong> duo will break camp with Lansing. Although due to some crowding at that level the latter might stay back and go to Vancouver. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=668470#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Hagen Danner</strong></a>, this year&#8217;s second round choice, could slot into either Vancouver or Bluefield depending on how everyone looks in the spring.</p>
<h3>First Base</h3>
<p><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=642133#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Rowdy Tellez</strong></a> was the one &#8220;buzz&#8221; guy at this position coming into the season and he had the first rough year of his career. Early on he was likely affected by some difficult family issues, but even when his average finally recovered in August the power stroke was nowhere to be found. Thankfully Justin Smoak&#8217;s emergence took the urgency away on Rowdy&#8217;s development. He&#8217;ll no doubt repeat AAA next year.  <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=622806#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Juan Kelly</strong></a> in Dunedin was good-but-not-great in a pitcher&#8217;s league, but also brings positional versatility being able to also play 3B and even catch in a pinch (he was signed as a catcher).  2017 8th round choice <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=641459#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Kacey Clemens</strong></a> was a mainstay for the VanCs and 15th rounder <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=676116#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Ryan Noda</strong></a> was the Appy League Player of the year and a monster for Bluefield (1.082 OPS). Whomever has a better spring will have the chance to jump to Dunedin next year with the other off to Lansing.</p>
<h3>Second Base</h3>
<p>When one lays aside upcoming minor league free agents, the most advanced 2B in the systems is Tim Lopes. While he came up big for NH often, however, a .729 OPS isn&#8217;t going to get him added to any prospect lists. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=624415#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Cavan Biggio</strong></a> is a member of the Jays Second Generation Club, but he also totaled a .705 OPS for Dunedin in his age 22 season—that&#8217;s not going to cut it. That brings us to <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=669392#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Samad Taylor</strong></a>. He was the second player that the Jays picked up from Cleveland in the Joe Smith deal. After a brief stop in Bluefield, he hit .333 for the balance of August with a hit in every one of those August games save one. Over that stretch his OPS was .848 and he&#8217;ll be someone to watch in Lansing next spring.</p>
<h3>Shortstop</h3>
<p>By now you probably know that spring crush <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=621037#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Jason Leblebijian</strong></a> went off a cliff in early June and crushed the illusion that he might have a major league role. He&#8217;ll be back in Buffalo as a utility man playing mostly 3B next year. More exciting for Bisons fans is the likely advent of <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=620446#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Richard Urena</strong></a>. As recently as the first of this month I was convinced that he&#8217;d go back to AA to begin 2018 as his production their this year did not scream, &#8220;promote me.&#8221; However if he can carry over the gains of his September major league hot streak to next spring, that might earn him the bump. It&#8217;s said that the Jays will want to see him get more work in at 2B next spring in anticipation of middle infield injuries, and that positional flexibility is also something they want in <strong><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=666971#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Lourdes Gurriel Jr.</a> </strong></p>
<p>Gurriel himself did not impress offensively either this year (both he and Urena had an OPS of .286 with LGJ slugging slightly higher) there are quite a few caveats. He missed much of the first half with hamstring injuries and when he did return it was after over two years out of organized competitive baseball games. There&#8217;s a reasonable chance that he has a better spring and, given that he&#8217;s 24 (over two years older than Urena) he&#8217;ll get the AAA assignment. There&#8217;s an argument to be made for separating them, so as not to crowd the SS playing time, but if the Jays want both to be highly flexible in the infield then it is also perfectly reasonable for them to pair the two in the middle of Buffalo&#8217;s infield, occasionally rotating back and forth.</p>
<p>Doing so opens up New Hampshire&#8217;s job for <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=666182#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Bo Bichette</strong></a>. Given that Bichette only got into 40 games for Dunedin, the cautious approach would be to at least let him (and a certain other individual) open the year back there and avoid the spring cold that one must deal with in New Hampshire. But that would certainly be a temporary situation unless he completely fell apart. Whether he plays 140 games in AA or 100, the job is effectively his given he was the most productive hitter (on a full season team) in the Blue Jays system in 2017.</p>
<p>The job Bo leaves behind in Dunedin would likely go to some combination of young Venezuelan shortstops <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=650988#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Yeltsin Gudino</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=660631#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Kevin Vicuna</strong></a>. Both are, to this point, relatively light hitting glove men whom the organization likes, but they&#8217;re not really on anybody&#8217;s top 30 list. With that said, Gudino was considered the No. 8 international signing prospect in 2013 and Vicuna was No. 30 the following year, so there might be some unrealized upside with them . At some point, though, they would likely take a back seat to one of the Blue Jays&#8217; 2017 first round picks: <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=657089#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Logan Warmoth</strong></a>.</p>
<p>In truth, it&#8217;s not impossible to imagine a scenario where Warmoth leapfrogs the two aforementioned shortstops and goes straight to Dunedin. But given the Blue Jays&#8217; handling of the previous year&#8217;s draft picks as well as the inherent luxury of having impressive depth above him, the 2017 top pick most likely breaks with Lansing. Warmoth did everything the team could have hoped this year in Vancouver, even while the rest of the hitters wore down towards the end of what was, particularly for college hitters, a really long season. Fellow 2017 draftee <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=675656#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Kevin Smith</strong></a> deserves a mention here as well, likely taking his assignment one level behind Warmoth wherever that ends up being.</p>
<h3>Third Base</h3>
<p>I know what you&#8217;re thinking, but let me take these in order from the top of the system down&#8230;even though that won&#8217;t take long. Jason Leblijian will just be a placeholder—at best—in Buffalo. Matt Dean will be a minor league free agent who&#8217;ll be very lucky to get an offer. Mitch Nay is still around, after much trouble with injury, but also hasn&#8217;t proven he can hit. So let&#8217;s just move on to discussing <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=665489#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Vlad Guerrero Jr</strong>.</a></p>
<p>Vlad, whom more and more folks are putting in discussions about the best prospect in the game, is obviously in the same position as Bo. The team could easily justify conservatively leaving him in Dunedin to begin the year in the sunshine until early May, but given that he has yet to experience serious adversity it might be considered advantageous to his development to let him break camp in AA. Whatever the schedule, that&#8217;s likely where he&#8217;ll play most of his games come year&#8217;s end. It&#8217;s also worth noting that how they choose to develop him will be at least somewhat affected by whether they extend Josh Donaldson this winter (or at least the nature of the conversations with his representatives about doing so).</p>
<p>If/when Guerrero settles in at AA, look for <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=641735#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Bradley Jones</strong></a> to get most of the reps at 3B in Dunedin. While he&#8217;s capable of playing 2B and 1B (and presumably would be a decent enough outfielder) third is where the depth chart is thinnest and so logically he&#8217;d get his best chance here. Jones was so impressive in Lansing that he was their first hitter promoted to Dunedin, but injuries limited him to 17 games and likely underlaid the 0 for 26 stretch that preceded his trip to the DL. The FSL hasn&#8217;t seen the real Jones yet. Below that level it gets dicey. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=650991#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Bryan Lizardo</strong></a> was unproductive at Vancouver, <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=660709#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Sterling Guzman</strong></a> hit well in Bluefield before a season ending injury. The second highest paid signing by the Blue Jays in this July 2 period was a 3B, Miguel Hiraldo, but he was described in rosey terms for his hitting, little mention was made of his defense, and he a very long way off.</p>
<h3>Outfield</h3>
<p>The top of the list in terms of advancement among outfield prospects is <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=606192#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Teoscar Hernandez</strong></a>. In fact, he&#8217;s graduated from officially being considered a prospect (joining <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=592647#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Dalton Pompey</strong></a> in &#8220;prospect but not officially&#8221; status). Barring the real possibility that the Blue Jays bring in someone from outside the organization this winter, I&#8217;d say confidence is high Hernandez has first shot at becoming the Opening Day right fielder in the Spring. Pompey, sadly, did not even get to play enough this year to burn an option, so in the unlikely event he doesn&#8217;t get hurt next spring, the Blue Jays can option him to Buffalo and see if he can consolidate his abilities without breaking again.</p>
<p>Joining him in that outfield will presumably be <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=546990#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Anthony Alford</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=596105#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Dwight Smith Jr</strong></a>. Smith spent 2017 with Buffalo and was mostly okay, but nothing about him suggests anything more than a fourth outfielder ceiling and guy who&#8217;ll probably bounce around the way Zeke Carerra was doing when he came to town. Alford, on the other hand, will surely be the team&#8217;s consensus No. 3 prospect this winter and rightly so. Most observers still think there&#8217;s some unrealized over-the-fence power left in his game, but otherwise he&#8217;s a practically perfect prospect both on and off the field. One reason the team might gamble with a Pearce/Carrera/Pillar/Hernandez outfield is the knowledge that Alford is so close. Alternately (and this is how I&#8217;d play it) they could aggressively shop Pillar and plug Alford into CF, but my guess is this organization is too conservative to break camp with rookies in two-thirds of the starting outfield slots.</p>
<p>Another outfielder who you&#8217;ll potential find in Buffalo in 2018, if he&#8217;s not taken in the Rule 5 Draft, is speedy <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=605231#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Roemon Fields</strong></a>. He has no power at all, but his OBP was .355 and he stole 43 bases while playing praiseworthy defense, which quite a few teams would tolerate off their bench. Behind this grouping is <strong><a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=623912#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL">Harold Ramirez</a></strong>. At his best in 2015 he was a high OBP guy with a little pop and good speed, but in two seasons AA has exposed him and he&#8217;s at this point looking like a marginal guy who&#8217;s not even as good as Smith.</p>
<p>The next guy you want to get excited about is Toronto native and future fan favorite <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=664768#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Connor Panas</strong></a>. Panas led the FSL in homers, and finished second in SLG and OPS. He&#8217;ll plug right into AA as the everyday RF and will again be overshadowed by the Bo and Vladdy show. While he&#8217;s not on their level (he&#8217;ll be 25 next year), he&#8217;s got enough going on to deserve some notice. Then there&#8217;s <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=658668#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Edward Olivares</strong></a>, the other guy who spent 2017 in the shadow of the Show. He was fifth in the Midwest League in OPS, third in slugging. When the 21 year old Venezuelan was promoted to Dunedin on August 13 it took him a few games to find his stroke and he didn&#8217;t manage even one homer at the higher level, but that should not dampen your enthusiasm. He&#8217;ll return to the FSL next spring.</p>
<p>Another interesting guy was Lansing&#8217;s <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=641943#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Joshua Palacios</strong></a>. The 2016 4th rounder was horrendous to begin the season and did not recover before going on the DL on June 5 with a .541 OPS. Just over two weeks later he came off a changed man. From there on out he hit .38 with an .824 OPS which has me projecting him to be Dunedin&#8217;s opening day CF next spring. The other 2017 draft choice on the Lansing roster was second rounder <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=642223#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>J.B. Woodman</strong></a>. You can&#8217;t entirely dismiss him but 157 strikeouts in 96 games (and only seven homers) won&#8217;t play.</p>
<p>On the short season teams the most well regarded prospect has to be <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=663545#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Reggie Pruitt</strong></a>. He&#8217;s still exceedingly raw, but after ending June hitting a sub-optimal .102, he posted a .257 BA with a .650 OPS over the second half, while playing big defense and stealing 28 bases in 36 tries. He&#8217;s still years away from refining them, but the tools are there. A couple of other guys in Vancouver hit marginally better, but they seem to have considerably lower ceilings. Another guy I&#8217;ve been watching is <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t517&amp;player_id=650996#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Freddy Rodriguez</strong></a>. He was No. 18 in that aforementioned 2013 class and his first two pro seasons were unimpressive, then he was limited by injury to only seven games in 2016. He also missed the first month of the short season this year but when he got to play he showed an improved game. It was only 28 games total, but his OPS was .861 and he&#8217;s still only 20. I&#8217;d speculate he has the chance to open with Lansing but the Jays may opt for caution and assign him to Vancouver. Finally, I&#8217;d be remiss if I did not mention <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=668474#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>Dominic Abbadassa</strong></a> (23rd rd, 2016) who hit .340 in the GCL with an .811 OPS, and 2017 draftee <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=668470#/career/R/hitting/2017/ALL"><strong>DJ Neal</strong></a> (26th)  who overcame a 2 for 27 midseason slump and hit .346 in all other games with an .812 OPS. Both will get a chance to prove their mettle in Vancouver next year.</p>
<p>Other names you may see mentioned among OF include Jon Davis, Andrew Guillote, and Brock Luundquist.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s 40 names in bold, dig in because there&#8217;s a boatload of pitchers to talk about ext time.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Steve Mitchell —USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Rowdy Tellez Is Making His Way to Toronto One Page of Notes at a Time</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/31/rowdy-tellez-is-making-his-way-to-toronto-one-page-of-notes-at-a-time/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 31 Mar 2017 10:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[DUNEDIN – From the moment he was drafted, Rowdy Tellez gained minor celebrity status among fans in Canada because of his peculiar yet endearing name. That fame drifted off into the background over the past few seasons as Tellez has been developing in the low minors, occasionally resurfacing with a #LetsGetRowdy on Twitter during a particular stretch [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DUNEDIN – From the moment he was drafted, Rowdy Tellez gained minor celebrity status among fans in Canada because of his peculiar yet endearing name. That fame drifted off into the background over the past few seasons as Tellez has been developing in the low minors, occasionally resurfacing with a #LetsGetRowdy on Twitter during a particular stretch of dominance from the 22-year-old first baseman. However, after a big 2016 in AA-New Hampshire which saw him post a gaudy triple slash line of .297/.387/.530 at age 20 and then the World Baseball Classic taking key roster players away from the Blue Jays for a few weeks, Tellez was given an extended stay in Dunedin. With this, the hills came alive with the sound of Rowdy fans.</p>
<p>Being in Dunedin with the big league club from the start of camp until March 19th allowed the young first baseman to take advantage of his situation. After a minor league game this past Tuesday against the Phillies AAA squad at the Bobby Mattick Training Center, I spoke to him about his experience. He said it was &#8220;crucial&#8221; for him in his development, thanks to being able &#8220;to learn from a lot of great guys.”</p>
<p>Who were those &#8220;great guys&#8221;? The first player he mentioned was none other than Justin Smoak, the man who people were hoping would lose his job to Tellez after a hot start to the spring slate. Smoak helped with his defense, which scouts have had questions about for Tellez&#8217;s entire career. He has worked extremely hard on improving that area of his game since coming into the Blue Jays organization though, because to him being a DH is a rarity reserved for the likes of David Ortiz.</p>
<p><i>“If you&#8217;re just a power hitting first baseman, you&#8217;re going to be a DH… Everybody can knock me for my defense all they want, but I&#8217;m here now, and [was] one of the top defenders in the minor leagues last year.”</i></p>
<p>What Tellez was referring to in that comment was his .992 fielding percentage from 2016, where he made a grand total of 7 errors in his 870 1/3 innings played in the field. “When you don&#8217;t make many errors, I guess you&#8217;re a bad fielder”, he quipped before adding that scouts could keep on saying he is “incapable”.</p>
<p>His help from veterans wasn&#8217;t just limited to the defensive side of the ball, however. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Troy Tulowitzki all provided tips on how to master the side of his game that has gotten him to where he is now. The chat with Tulowitzki garnered national attention when Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro went on the radio with Jeff Blair and said that Tellez had taken six pages of notes at a dinner between the two. The dinner story spread quickly on the internet, with the idea of the publicly quiet Tulowitzki being taken out to dinner by a 22-year-old prospect instantly becoming a meme. However, Tellez says we got it a bit wrong.</p>
<p><i>“Somebody wrote that I took him out to dinner, but I asked [him] to go out to dinner because I wanted to learn. Obviously he wasn&#8217;t going to let me pay.”</i></p>
<p>And unfortunately, the mental picture so many have drawn of Tellez sitting at a table across from Tulowitzki with a note pad and pen hastily scrambling thoughts down in between bites is not exactly what occurred on the night of March 7th at Casa Tina. In fact, the notes were taken at home, later that evening.</p>
<p><i>“I went back home and took notes and wrote down everything that I could remember so I could keep it all. You can’t remember everything. So, [I] wrote it all down, and ended up having six pages of notes on my phone.”</i></p>
<p>This wasn&#8217;t an isolated incident either. Shapiro told a story where Major League veteran Sean Casey was in camp and talking to Tellez, and Casey thought he was texting instead of listening to what he was saying. It turned out that Tellez was typing notes on his phone. When asked about this habit of taking notes, Tellez said that he “wants to learn as much” as he can when given the opportunity.</p>
<p><i>“These guys were successful in the big leagues and as much as I want to learn, and how much I ask questions and pick their brain, I won&#8217;t be able to remember it all from everybody. So, I write things down. I keep a little book. Even as a hitter I keep books on pitchers. I like to write things down.”</i></p>
<p>That diligence is what gives Tellez an edge, and makes him more likely to succeed going forward. In Toronto, we aren’t strangers to prospects who get complacent because they believe in their talent, only to fizzle out at the top level because they don&#8217;t have what it takes. Tellez is different. Scouts complained about his defense, so he trained as hard as he could until the tune of the scouts changed. There were those who said his bat wasn’t strong enough, so he worked and worked until his offense was 52 park adjusted points better than the league average in AA-New Hampshire.</p>
<p>All of that is reason enough to believe that although he is starting the season in AAA-Buffalo, Tellez will find his way to Toronto soon enough. When he finally gets there, Tellez is fully ready and excited for what it means to play for the Blue Jays: “You&#8217;re playing for a whole country, and nobody can say that in professional baseball, except for the Toronto Blue Jays&#8221;, he said in the closing parts of the interview.</p>
<p>Until he gets to Toronto, Rowdy has a couple of things on his mind:</p>
<p><i>“[I’m] focused on winning, and taking my men to war.”</i></p>
<p>A little intense? Sure. Endearing in that way that you know he’s going to be a fan favourite? One hundred percent. #LetsGetRowdy.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Top Prospects to Watch For at Each Blue Jays MiLB Affiliate</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/25/the-top-players-to-watch-at-each-blue-jays-farm-team/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/25/the-top-players-to-watch-at-each-blue-jays-farm-team/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Mar 2017 11:32:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Casey Lawrence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Reid-Foley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9743</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Writer&#8217;s Note: It is still early for us to know (officially) exactly where each player will be assigned, but for most of the higher profile guys, one can make a pretty good educated guess. I&#8217;ll likely be wrong on one or two of these guys, but it should be pretty accurate overall.  Also, this preview [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Writer&#8217;s Note: It is still early for us to know (officially) exactly where each player will be assigned, but for most of the higher profile guys, one can make a pretty good educated guess. I&#8217;ll likely be wrong on one or two of these guys, but it should be pretty accurate overall.  Also, this preview is strictly a look at the full-season squads. No one but a time traveler could give you a worthwhile preview of the short-season clubs at this point. So let&#8217;s take a road trip and see how the farm clubs shape up.</em></p>
<h3>AAA &#8211; Buffalo Bisons</h3>
<p>Typically the Triple-A squad is stacked with minor league veterans who can provide emergency relief for some temporary hole in the major league squad. While this is set to be a mostly veteran squad, it has a higher proportion of younger players who may have a major league career than most past Blue Jays AAA teams. Also, the Bisons look to sport an opening day pitching staff that could be made up almost entirely of pitchers who could legitimately contribute at the big league level.</p>
<h4>Top Pitcher to Watch &#8211; Casey Lawrence</h4>
<p>The classic example of a &#8220;non-prospect&#8221; who&#8217;s turned into an interesting sleeper candidate. Much has been written by beat <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/casey-lawrence-goes-almost-done-almost-major-leaguer/">beat reporters</a> about the improbable turnaround in Lawrence&#8217;s fortunes. The appeal in keeping an eye on him lies more in seeing whether the ultimate underdog scenario plays out or whether it&#8217;s a spring narrative illusion. It&#8217;s true that people associated with the team are talking him up, making reference to a mechanical change that added some velocity last year. Upon his return to Buffalo the better stuff contributed to an uptick in strikeouts, and noticeably improved the H/9 ratio. But the sample of work under this newfound progress is small, and the previous body of work shows a lot of contact for the upper level teams. Watch him to see if what the coaches are seeing manifests in improved game results.</p>
<h4>Top Hitter to Watch &#8211; Rowdy Tellez</h4>
<p>Casual fans may not realize how deceptive his draft position was, being the classic case of the guy who fell because everyone was convinced he&#8217;d never sign. The Jays, however, had disposable cash after first rounder Phil Bickford declined to sign and made the deal.  All last year I documented Tellez&#8217;s stats after he turned around a slow start  (he was hitting .143/.299/.275 through May 9), but it bears repeating. On the balance of the season he hit .337/.407/.594 which has to excite any Jays fan. The caveat is that New Hampshires home park is quite friendly to left-handed power, so the thing to watch is how well that production translates to Buffalo.</p>
<p>Rowdy&#8217;s near-term future depends on what Justin Smoak does to cling to his job this year, and the Jays seem prepared to give him a lot of rope. But my hunch is once the trade deadline passes Tellez may well be in Toronto staking his claim to the 1B job.</p>
<h4>Five Other Names to Know</h4>
<p>1. Dalton Pompey &#8211; Okay, you already know this one. My guess is no later than June he&#8217;ll be making us happy in Toronto&#8217;s outfield.</p>
<p>2. Danny Barnes &#8211; Yes, the Jays have stacked up a notable pile of bullpen options, but you haven&#8217;t heard the last of this guy.</p>
<p>3. Matt Dermody &#8211; Aaron Loup has apparently locked down his job in Toronto (as I expected, I&#8217;m still a fan of his) but Dermody will likely get his chance to work some for the Toronto squad this year.</p>
<p>4. Harold Ramirez &#8211; He&#8217;s got a Shannon Stewart arm, but the Blue Jays seem real impressed with his hitting.</p>
<p>5. Chris Smith &#8211; the subject of much spring chatter, big arm with velocity that some of the major leaguers lack. You&#8221;l probably see him at some point.</p>
<p><strong> With Apologies To:</strong> Mat Latos, Gavin Floyd, Ryan Tepera, Jeff Believeau, and Darrell Cecilliani</p>
<h3>AA &#8211; New Hampshire Fisher Cats</h3>
<p>While the Fisher Cats look to open the year with at least half  a dozen names you&#8217;re probably familiar with, the rest of the roster might be stretched thin unless some faded-hopes guys turn their trajectory around.</p>
<h4>Top Pitcher to Watch &#8211; Sean Reid-Foley</h4>
<p>While he&#8217;s not the only top 10 pitching prospect on this team, he&#8217;s the one with the upward trajectory lately. The organization seems to have cleaned up the mechanical issues that were hampering his control, cutting his BB/9 rate from a hideous 6.3 in 2015 to 3.0 in 2016. It was even better than that once he was promoted to Dunedin. It&#8217;s not impossible that they have him start the year with the D-Jays, but he was so dominant in his 10 starts there last year that he&#8217;d have to be having a rough spring to go back there, particularly since Dunedin has a jam-packed-with-prospects rotation.</p>
<h4>Top Hitter to Watch &#8211; Anthony Alford</h4>
<p>Again, it would not be stunning to see him begin the year in Dunedin since injuries wrecked the first half of the 2016 season. But he finished strong and John Gibbons in particular raved about his progress in a recent interview. In my view, Alford is on track to be the heir apparent to Jose Bautista in a couple of years and introducing him to upper level pitching is the next step.</p>
<h4>Five Other Names to Know</h4>
<p>1. Richard Urena &#8211; Impressed with the bat in big league camp, but also made some high-profile errors which seemed to be more about focus than ability. He&#8217;s still quite young though, watch for him to mature.</p>
<p>2. Reese McGuire &#8211; a brief rumor suggested the Jays were not ruling him out for the big league backup role before Saltalamacchia signed.  Just yesterday Russ Atkins gushed over him on the Jeff Blair show. Well known as a very gifted defender, watch to see if he translates his suspected hitting ability into decent on-field results.</p>
<p>3. Conner Greene &#8211; Over the 2014 and 2015 seasons combined, Greene efficently posted a 2.7 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 and those numbers made him a top prospect, but when he hit AA (the last five starts of 2015) all that seemed to desert him. He was dropped back to Dunedin for the first half of 2016 but both stats were still going in the wrong direction (4.4 and 5.9 respectively). They saw something they liked I guess as he moved back to AA but the stats didn&#8217;t show whatever it was. You&#8217;ll want to watch both those numbers to see if he can get his groove back.</p>
<p>4. Tim Mayza &#8211; Hard throwing, high velocity lefty that had everyone buzzing in the spring. His control deserted him for a month in AA last year (walking 13 in 11 innings from July 8 to August 4) but he finished strong. Given the overflowing Bisons &#8216;pen, he should find himself back in NH to start the year, but he&#8217;s not the kind of guy that will be restricted to level-by-level promotion. If July was just a hiccup, then he&#8217;ll come fast.</p>
<p>5. Shane Dawson &#8211; until last year he looked like a poor-man&#8217;s Mark Buehrle, a tenacious crafty lefty in the best sense of the term about whom observers freely used baseball cliches about toughness and dedication.  But, like Greene, AA saw the disappearance of his formerly well regarded control. He came into 2016 with 2.6 BB/9 over his career.  Last year that almost doubled to an unsightly 4.8. The 23 year old Alberta native is a fringe prospect at his best, but they challenged him last year and if he finds his command again, who knows?</p>
<p><strong>With Apologies To:</strong> Ryan McBroom</p>
<h3>High A &#8211; Dunedin Blue Jays</h3>
<p>The two A-level teams are going to be, at least to begin, more fun to watch than the upper levels. Dunedin sports a rotation with five players who, in my view, have a legitimate chance to pitch well in the majors in some role. The offensive side of their game is thin, with only three real prospects (and, potentially, a has been that might re-emerge) but that pitching though.</p>
<h4>Pitcher to Watch &#8211; Ryan Borucki</h4>
<p>If I have to pick just one, I&#8217;ll go with the guy that the organization seems highest on. After an injury plagued career he began 2016 healthy and assigned to Dunedin and it was ugly (read that UUUUUUUUUUUgly!) to the tune of 40 hits in 20 IP and 10 of those &#8211; TEN! &#8211; were homers. So they dropped him back to Lansing where he sorted out what he was doing wrong From June 10 through the end of the season he threw 85 innings, allowed 68 hits and ONE homer, while walking 14 and striking out 84 and posting a 1.69 ERA. Watch for his second tour in Dunedin to go much better.</p>
<h4>Hitter to Watch &#8211; Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.</h4>
<p>I really don&#8217;t have to explain this one to you, after a year away from competition, the Jays will be watching to see how LGJ handles the everyday SS role and where his bat is. What I can&#8217;t tell you is whether they will go slow, or be aggressive in his promotion, but my hunch is that if he does well in the first half then he&#8217;ll get some AA time, and there move around the field some so as to not push Urena to the bench much.</p>
<h4>Five Other Name to Know</h4>
<p>1. Max Pentecost &#8211; He can hit, he showed that last year (an .864 OPS in Lansing) but no one is stating confidently that his shoulder will let him get back behind the plate. Some say that without catching he&#8217;s a much less valuable prospect and to an extent that&#8217;s true, because a great hitting catcher is a great prospect. But it doesn&#8217;t mean he&#8217;s suddenly a guy you can ignore either. He&#8217;s said to be athletic enough to play other positions and if he keeps hitting he&#8217;ll have a future. Still, the thing to watch is how often he&#8217;s behind the plate, particularly as the summer wears on.</p>
<p>2. Jon Harris &#8211; I&#8217;ve seen at least one report that indicates his velocity may have ticked up a bit and he&#8217;s Sanchezed himself (that is, put on pounds of extra muscle). He had eight starts in Dunedin last year and his K rate was noticeably down from his work in Lansing. If that recovers, he&#8217;s nominally the guy you&#8217;d peg to be the first promoted to AA.</p>
<p>3. Angel Perdomo &#8211; the chatter says that eventually he&#8217;s likely for the bullpen due to inconsistency in his secondary offerings.  He had an ugly month (7/20-8/20) last year in which is command deserted him and he posted a 6.82 ERA over 32.1 IP with 16 walks, but otherwise has flat out dominant. I admit to scouting the stat-line, but I&#8217;m going to keep watching to see how the lefty holds up as a starter.</p>
<p>4. Danny Jansen &#8211; made the AFL roster last fall and hit well after a couple of injury plagued seasons. Reportedly impressing in Florida right now, he&#8217;s an impressive defender who still needs to prove he can hit over a full season. It will be of interest how often the D-Jays let him work on his bat at DH while Pentecost tries to re-establish his defense.</p>
<p>5. Jordan Romano &#8211; another guy some are pegging as a potential reliever, but the Markham native came off a season lost to Tommy John surgery and completely outclassed the Midwest league en-route to a 2.11 ERA over 15 games and 72.2 IP. Low hits, reasonable walks, almost a strikeout per inning, what&#8217;s not to like? I&#8217;ll be watching to see how that translates as he moves up.</p>
<p><strong>With Apologies To:</strong> Francisco Rios, Juan Kelly, and&#8230;Mitch Nay?</p>
<h3>Low A &#8211; Lansing Lugnuts</h3>
<p>With four high profile starters and up to a half dozen impressive bats, all eyes might be on the Lugnuts to start the year. With possibly eight players from the 2016 draft, and (likely) the top prospect in the system, there will be a lot to see.</p>
<h4>Pitcher to Watch &#8211; T.J. Zeuch</h4>
<p>You really have a lot of options here, as in Dunedin, but the potential for last year&#8217;s first round pick to blossom in his first full season as a pro has to  be the best source of intrigue for me. There are a couple of rotation-mates of whom I am a big fan, but there&#8217;s reportedly still a good bit of upside to Zuech and I&#8217;ll be interested to see it emerge.</p>
<h4>Hitter to Watch &#8211; Vlad Guerrero, Jr.</h4>
<p>I haven&#8217;t heard ANY negative comment on the guy and his development might be well served by a full-season league if indeed he&#8217;s ready. Besides, if I don&#8217;t assume this I wouldn&#8217;t get to write about the #1 prospect in this piece and that would never do.</p>
<h4>Five Other Names to Know</h4>
<p>1. Bo Bichette &#8211; Another guy who might not start the year in full season ball, in fact for an ordinary prospect you could be certain he wouldn&#8217;t, but if he does he&#8217;ll be second only to Vlad in provoking fan expectations.</p>
<p>2. Justin Maese &#8211; After dominating the Northwest League in five starts (in which he walked a single batter) he moved up to Lansing for 10 more and, apart from one really bad start, was pretty dominant there as well. The scouts like him as much as the stats do and I, for one, love to watch a guy who doesn&#8217;t walk anyone.</p>
<p>3. J.B. Woodman &#8211; you have to disregard, somewhat, the nine-game stint in Lansing last year to close the season, during which he was simply on fire. Sample size issues demand it.  In Vancouver he showed excellent doubles power, solid OBP results but also far ore strikeouts than you&#8217;d like. Be watching to see if they come down, and if some of those doubles translate into homers.</p>
<p>4. Joshua Palacios &#8211; Like Woodman, a CF drafted in 2016, he raked in Vancouver, hitting .355 over 28 games there. He needs to develop some pop, or or baserunning skills to be a complete player so that will be the things to watch him for in 2017.</p>
<p>5. Patrick Murphy &#8211; another type of player I have a soft spot for is the one who overcomes a lot of injury issues and reclaims his status. If you read my columns last summer you know that Murphy is one such guy. He seemed to tire a bit towards the end, and you&#8217;d probably like a few more strikeouts, but it was a nice foundation. More please.</p>
<p><strong>With Apologies To:</strong> Zach Jackson, Caven Biggio, and&#8230;Bradley Jones?</p>
<p>Now you&#8217;re all set with the guys you&#8217;ll possibly get sick of me raving about all summer. A mere two weeks remain until these guys take the field in games that count.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Minor League Update: June 4th Edition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/04/minor-league-update-june-4th-edition/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/04/minor-league-update-june-4th-edition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jun 2016 16:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor League Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[A.J. Jimenez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angel Perdomo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Rios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesus Montero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Reid-Foley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3314</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#8217;re into June now, and a lot of the early curiosities have corrected themselves, though not all, and the player development cycle now shifts to the upcoming draft and the subsequent filling out of the short-season team rosters where we&#8217;ll begin to get our first 2016 look at a number of interesting players. In the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;re into June now, and a lot of the early curiosities have corrected themselves, though not all, and the player development cycle now shifts to the upcoming draft and the subsequent filling out of the short-season team rosters where we&#8217;ll begin to get our first 2016 look at a number of interesting players. In the mean time, here&#8217;s a small taste of that action via a couple of tweet&#8217;s from Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Asked a Blue Jays talent evaluator at extended spring training what he&#39;s seen from 17-year-old Vlad Guerrero Jr: <a href="https://t.co/kx4iyU6T1w">pic.twitter.com/kx4iyU6T1w</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/738010613423673345">June 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">But what the Blue Jays are most encouraged by with Vlad Jr is his work at third base: <a href="https://t.co/4JWzhcY7V2">pic.twitter.com/4JWzhcY7V2</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/738011066114965504">June 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Now, to business.</p>
<h3><strong>Pitchers of the Week</strong></h3>
<p>1. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=656887#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL">Sean Reid-Foley</a> &#8211; RHP – Lansing (Low A)</p>
<p>Last Week: 1-0, 2 GS , 15 IP, 9  H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 17 K<br />
Season: 3-3, 45.0 IP, 20 BB, 50 K, 3.60 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10 K/9, 4 BB/9</p>
<p>The names are surely familiar to you at this point &#8211; Lansing starting pitchers just passing around the honors from week to week in these updates. Every person mentioned under this heading this year, save Drew Hutchison, has at some point taken a turn in the Lansing rotation.  Sometimes it can be tough to pick between them.  Technically speaking, SRF only had one start since the last update, but the one previous to that was made on the last night of the previous stat-week and I didn&#8217;t change the already selected top 3, so I&#8217;ll speak of it here. In his last two outings, Reid-Foley has 15 IP, 4 ER, only one walk (an issue for him in the past), and 17 strikeouts.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=622780#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL">Angel Perdomo</a> &#8211; LHP &#8211; Lansing</p>
<p>Last Week: 0-0, 1 GS , 7.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K<br />
Season: 2-1, 43.1 IP, 20 BB, 54 K, 1.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 11.2 K/9, 4.1 BB/9</p>
<p>In the three way competition to be the second Lansing starter to get the call to fly down to Dunedin, the 6&#8217;6&#8243; lefty doesn&#8217;t intend to take a back seat to anyone.  He was pitching Friday night as I was putting this post together, and put together six innings of 1-hit ball with 8 strikeouts. This start came after he pitched seven innings of 1-hit ball in the previous turn.</p>
<p>His ERA on the season is now down to 1.28, in his last 26 IP he&#8217;s allowed a single earned run and only 10 hits. Of the various guys who&#8217;ve started in Lansing this year, this one might ultimately end up being the best.</p>
<p>3. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=642590#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2016/MINORS">Francisco Rios</a> &#8211; RHP &#8211; Dunedin (High A)</p>
<p>Last Week: 2-0, 2 GS , 15 IP, 12 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 6 K<br />
Season (combined): 5-2, 64.1 IP, 16 BB, 68 K, 1.82 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9</p>
<p>While his control went a bit sideways in his most recent outing, Rios gave up only two earned runs in 15 IP, and the extra walks were most likely a fluke, possibly the work of an umpire as much as the pitcher. It&#8217;s only the third time since 2015 opened that he&#8217;s walked as many as four batters, and only the fifth time (in 26 starts) that he&#8217;s walked more than two.</p>
<h3><strong>Hitters of the Week</strong></h3>
<p>1. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=642133#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL">Rowdy Tellez</a> &#8211; 1B &#8211; New Hampshire (AA)</p>
<p>Last Week: 11/24, 5 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 3 BB, .458 AVG, .517 OBP, .916 SLG<br />
Season: 43/172, 13 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 0 SB, 2 CS, 31 BB, .250 AVG, .362 OBP, .477SLG</p>
<p>Yes, I know. You&#8217;ve seen him on this list before. Odds are fairly high you will again. Last time out I documented Tellez&#8217;s turnaround from a very slow start, and he hasn&#8217;t cooled off since then. As of this writing he&#8217;s riding a 10 game hit streak. Since May 10 he has a .370 BA and a 1.097 OPS. Any doubts about his ability to hit AA pitching have certainly been allayed.</p>
<p>2. <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=524968#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL">Jesus Montero</a> &#8211; DH &#8211; Buffalo (AAA)</p>
<p>Last Week: 8/24, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 1 BB, .333 AVG, .360 OBP, .541 SLG<br />
Season: 59/194, 13 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 8 BB, .304 AVG, .335 OBP, .799 SLG</p>
<p>When the Blue Jays elected to go with an 8-man bullpen while Troy Tulowitzki is on the DL, it was rightly observed that they were left with no one known for their hitting on the bench. To which it was replied, not without justification, that there isn&#8217;t a ton of potential offensive help at Buffalo either &#8211; but recent acquisition Jesus Montero is begging to differ. The 26 year old man-with-no-need-for-a-glove is on a monster tear over the last almost 3 weeks he&#8217;s been an absolute monster.</p>
<p>Not counting last nights game, in which he went 2/4 with a double and triple, his OPS since May 14 is .997 to compliment a .354 batting average. If this were to sustain over the coming weeks, it will ease concerns about what is available down there in case of injury to a player like Smoak or Encarnacion.</p>
<p>3.  <a href="http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&amp;player_id=543362#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL">AJ Jimenez</a> &#8211; C &#8211; Buffalo</p>
<p>Last Week: 6/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB, 0 CS, 1 BB, .428 AVG, .466 OBP, .517 SLG<br />
Season: 27/100, 7 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB, 1 CS, 7 BB, .270 AVG, .333 OBP, .420 SLG</p>
<p>Many of you might not remember when AJ Jimenez appeared regularly on Blue Jays prospect lists. Drafted in 2008, he outranks every player in the Toronto system in service time with the organization&#8230;save for Brett Cecil. A well regarded defender, after the 2011 season (in which he hit over .300 with a .770 OPS in Dunedin) he was regularly described as a future major leaguer. Then the injuries set in. He managed to make it into, collectively, only 205 games over the next four seasons.</p>
<p>In fact, he&#8217;s already played in more games, as of last night, in 2016 than he played in all of 2o15. This year you would have largely been justified in the assumption that his window to the MLB had been closed. However, for over three weeks now he&#8217;s been on the best roll of his career. Over the last 14 games through Thursday (53 PA), he has an OPS of .945. There are huge sample size considerations here, but it&#8217;s good to see that there&#8217;s something left.</p>
<h3><strong>Other Minor Notes</strong></h3>
<p>Over the just-passed Memorial Day weekend, the full season minor league teams completed their first third of the season, and it seems only proper to take a moment and assess the top-prospects that various outlets have mentioned. Who&#8217;s stock is climbing? Who&#8217;s stock is dropping?</p>
<h4>Climbing</h4>
<p>1. Francisco Rios &#8211; no one has done more to put themselves in the spotlight<br />
2. Angel Perdomo &#8211; was not an afterthought, as Rios was, but still improved his status<br />
3. Rowdy Tellez &#8211; some wondered if the placement was too aggressive<br />
4. Jon Harris &#8211; wiped away concerns about last years poor debut<br />
5. Dwight Smith, Jr. &#8211; most observers were moving on from him.</p>
<h4>Dropping</h4>
<p>1. D. J. Davis &#8211; things are looking grim after he had a modest rebound last year<br />
2. Lane Thomas &#8211; one of my favorites before last season, really looking lost right now<br />
3. Tom Robson &#8211; comeback from TJ has not gone well at all.<br />
4. Conner Greene &#8211; where did the strikeouts go?<br />
5. Matt Dean &#8211; even Kevin Ahrens showed more promise than this.</p>
<h3>Other Stat Lines of Interest</h3>
<p><strong>HITTERS</strong></p>
<p><strong>Last Week</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Hitter</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>AVG</th>
<th>OBP</th>
<th>SLG</th>
<th>HR</th>
<th>SB</th>
<th>BB</th>
<th>K</th>
<th>TB</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dalton Pompey</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>OF</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>.222</td>
<td>.300</td>
<td>.222</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dwight Smith, Jr</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>LF</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>.192</td>
<td>.275</td>
<td>.192</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Anthony Alford</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>CF</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>.238</td>
<td>.238</td>
<td>.429</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Richard Urena</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>SS</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>.185</td>
<td>.178</td>
<td>.407</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Max Pentecost</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>DH</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>.166</td>
<td>.230</td>
<td>.166</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Season</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Hitter</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>PA</th>
<th>AVG</th>
<th>OBP</th>
<th>SLG</th>
<th>HR</th>
<th>SB</th>
<th>BB</th>
<th>K</th>
<th>TB</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dalton Pompey</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>OF</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>135</td>
<td>.269</td>
<td>.351</td>
<td>.345</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>24</td>
<td>41</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dwight Smith, Jr</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>LF</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>.263</td>
<td>.330</td>
<td>.404</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>69</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Anthony Alford</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>CF</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>.214</td>
<td>.274</td>
<td>.268</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>30</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Richard Urena</td>
<td>20</td>
<td>SS</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>200</td>
<td>.246</td>
<td>.293</td>
<td>.382</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>35</td>
<td>73</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Max Pentecost</td>
<td>23</td>
<td>DH</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>84</td>
<td>.263</td>
<td>.333</td>
<td>.303</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>23</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>PITCHERS</strong></p>
<p><strong>Last Week</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Pitcher</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>ERA</th>
<th>K/9</th>
<th>BB/9</th>
<th>WHIP</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>1.23</td>
<td>11.0</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>0.55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Shane Dawson</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1.50</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>1.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Conner Greene</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>1.50</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>5.3</td>
<td>1.25</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jon Harris</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>7.71</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>2.04</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ryan Borucki</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3.86</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>1.29</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><strong>Season</strong></p>
<table class="tftable" style="height: 227px" border="1" width="479">
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Pitcher</th>
<th>Age</th>
<th>Pos.</th>
<th>Lvl</th>
<th>G</th>
<th>IP</th>
<th>ERA</th>
<th>K/9</th>
<th>BB/9</th>
<th>WHIP</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Drew Hutchison</td>
<td>25</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AAA</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>2.93</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>1.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Shane Dawson</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>AA</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>44.2</td>
<td>3.43</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>1.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Conner Greene</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A+</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>54.2</td>
<td>3.29</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>1.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Jon Harris</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>2.36</td>
<td>10.0</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>1.29</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ryan Borucki*</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>SP</td>
<td>A</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>44.0</td>
<td>7.98</td>
<td>5.7</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>* = Stats over two levels</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The Comprehensive Blue Jays Minor League Primer</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/07/the-comprehensive-blue-jays-minor-league-primer/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/07/the-comprehensive-blue-jays-minor-league-primer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Apr 2016 17:19:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conner Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sean Reid-Foley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1154</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today is the big day for fans of the Toronto Blue Jays prospects. Today, weather permitting &#8211; given that three of the four full season teams play in northern climates &#8211; is opening day for all four full season affiliates. Since full (tentative) rosters were announced at the first of the week, you have probably perused [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today is the big day for fans of the Toronto Blue Jays prospects. Today, weather permitting &#8211; given that three of the four full season teams play in northern climates &#8211; is opening day for all four full season affiliates. Since full (tentative) rosters were announced at the first of the week, you have probably perused them by now if you’re really interested in knowing all the finer details. So I won’t bother to repeat those for you here. Instead I will provide appropriate links to the full roster for each team to browse at your heart&#8217;s content. This review will focus on the prospects and players that should be commanding your attention for various reasons as the season gets underway, starting at the top of the system and working our way down the ladder.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t422">BUFFALO BISONS</a></h3>
<p>The Buffalo team is packed out with players with major league experience, and relatively light on legitimate prospects, so I&#8217;ll have to fudge a bit on this one. That’s not really unusual for the Jays or across the league. Major league teams like to have veteran depth they can summon if an injury creates a need on the big club. It’s not my purpose here to review those guys, however I will toss a shout-out to Drew Hutchison who had fewer than 32 IP above Hi-A ball when he was first promoted to Toronto at the age of 21. An argument could be made that on a stricter development plan, he’d have been a major league rookie at best last year. He’s still just 25.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Dalton Pompey </strong>of course<strong>.</strong> No longer in possession of rookie eligibility, he’s still legitimately a prospect even if he doesn’t appear on the lists. He only really needs to consolidate his hitting progress. His bat is probably major league ready. But the team believes the CF needs more consistency, that is more reps, on the defensive side of the ball. The 23 year old is another player that on another course might just now be arriving at AAA, and would probably be in the major leagues if not for last year&#8217;s breakout from Kevin Pillar.</p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Andy Burns</strong>, 3B, 2B, LF, sometimes SS, and more in a pinch, has slowly and steadily built his credibility in the Blue Jays system, culminating in his head-turning spring training performance. He was drafted as a SS and put up interesting slash lines in his first full professional season in 2012, and was even better in 2013. The offensive numbers cooled a bit in the last couple of years but his versatility has steadily increased. That factor alone may put him in a major league uniform sometime this season.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep on…</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Jesus Montero</strong>. So okay, he’s not a prospect at all, but he’s only 26 and if the Jays can fix his swing to complement the power. . .</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Darrell Ceciliani</strong> is another guy you don’t really think of as one of the Blue Jays prospects, as he has never been a top 10 prospect in the Mets organization (the team from whom he was acquired). He was quite good in the Florida State League a few years ago, then raked in the high-octane Pacific Coast League last year before impressing Jays decision-makers in Spring Training with his power. Keep an eye on how he handles International League pitching, as he very likely will see time in Toronto this season.</p>
<h4><em><strong>There’s No Such Thing as A (Relief) Pitching Prospect</strong></em></h4>
<p>To be abbreviated henceforth!</p>
<p><strong>Chad Girodo</strong> is a 25 year old lefty that stuck around a long time in Spring Training. While the Blue Jays’ relief depth is pretty impressive, this is a guy you may well see do some work for the team, if not this year then next. With rare exception, minor league relief pitchers hardly qualify as “prospects” but sometimes a guy comes through the system in the ‘pen and still makes an impact (Aaron Loup, for an example). A side-armer who dominates left-handed hitters, Girodo had a 0.62 ERA in AA New Hampshire last year with an 11/1 K/BB ratio. That’ll play.</p>
<p>Other notes &#8211; RH RP Blake McFarland is another guy that might sneak up on you this year. You don’t add a somewhat older, former undrafted free agent to the 40 man roster unless you think he can pitch in the bigs in a pinch.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t463">NEW HAMPSHIRE FISHER CATS</a></h3>
<p>Often double-A is viewed by major league teams as the real prospect proving ground and the best of them might leap-frog over the veteran-laden triple-a. Still, even when the Blue Jays are well stocked with prospects it always seems like the F-Cats have a rather plain roster. There&#8217;s only one real star here to start the season but look for that to change as the summer heats up.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Rowdy Tellez</strong>, the 21 year old first baseman with the nickname that demands your adoration, was raking in Dunedin last year when he was hit in the hand by a pitch that cost him the rest of his team’s season. He did come back strong in the Arizona Fall League, but given that he only played in 35 games in Dunedin, it’s a mild surprise he was assigned to New Hampshire right out of the gate. He has an advanced feel for hitting, both for average and for power, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the higher quality arms in double-A.</p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p>LHP <strong>Shane Dawson</strong> is an even more surprising assignment at this level. The Alberta-born starter is widely regarded as having marginal stuff but is also described as a player who maximizes his results with an advanced feel for pitchability. The surprise here is that the 22 year old pitcher got a mere 5 starts in Dunedin after a second-half promotion in 2015. I&#8217;m guessing not one observer had penciled him in for AA.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep On…</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Roman Fields</strong>. He’s always likely to be a guy with, at most, a barely tolerable bat but he also features impressive outfield defense and blazing speed. If the team can turn his bat up even a little, he could be a valuable bench outfielder. Remember, the upcoming season will only be his third in professional baseball.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>John Stilson</strong>? You remember, right? The guy that everyone said the Blue Jays stole in the 2011 draft if he could stay healthy and then he . . . didn’t? Yeah. That guy. Well, that’s not entirely fair. He looked like an absolute stud out of the ‘pen in 2013 for the Bisons. But a series of shoulder woes cut short 2014 and wiped out 2015. Reports were he was throwing 98 mph easily in spring training, so his name could pop up again.</p>
<h4><em><strong>TNSTAS(R)PP</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Brady Dragmire</strong> had one of the craziest game logs of 2015. He struggled so much in the early going that his ERA peaked at 10.80 and a 10/13 K/BB ratio on June 9 (in 21.2 IP). But after making an adjustment, he got so hot that he burst into flames (not literally). His ERA over the balance of the season was 2.38 over 41.2 IP, with a 40/7 K/BB. The 22-year old also didn&#8217;t give up a home run all year. His addition to the 40 man roster last fall showed that the Blue Jays were paying attention. He will basically go as far as his slider takes him. When it&#8217;s on, he&#8217;s very tough. When it&#8217;s not, he&#8217;s very hittable.</p>
<p>Other notes &#8211; The increasing crowd of players who play 1B/DH in the system, combined with the injuries and lack of development from once highly regarded Mitch Nay have created the opportunity for <strong>Matt Dean</strong> to return to the hot corner. He displayed considerable power for the cavernous environment of the Florida State League last year but it remains to be seen whether his bat translates to AA or his glove can still play at third base.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t424">DUNEDIN BLUE JAYS</a></h3>
<p>In stark contrast the the New Hampshire squad, the D-Jays are comparatively jacked up. a half dozen or more of these guys have significant major league potential. Much of this likely has to do with the virtual guarantee of early season warm weather, but regardless, the team is loaded.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Anthony Alford</strong> is the only real choice for the mention here. He came into 2015 with fewer than 80 professional at bats and promptly turned into an absolute stud. He started at Lansing for 50 games, then put up an even better line in 52 games after his promotion to Dunedin. He has an elite approach at the plate, which is stunning for someone who missed so much professional time, and has the defensive and speed tools that make scouts drool. While there’s certainly wisdom in holding a guy who grew up in Mississippi back in the Florida sunshine for a bit more seasoning, I’d be stunned if he played here beyond the FSL All Star Game on June 18. If you missed it, you can get an up-close look at the star prospect from Joshua Howsam&#8217;s <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/06/why-anthony-alford-is-ready-to-take-the-next-step/">excellent interview with Alford. </a></p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p>Well, technically, five! There is just too much talent on this team to limit the report to just one player.</p>
<p>Being on the same roster as Alford gets shortstop <strong>Richard Urena</strong> pushed out of the spotlight a bit, but he’s here too and he’s not short on buzz around the organization. Still just 20, scouts rave about the Dominican infielder&#8217;s instincts for shortstop, and he showed surprising power last year in Lansing. Executives and coaches are very impressed with him and are content to give him lots of time to develop his plate discipline, which is practically non-existent at this point. He walked only 16 times in 2015, so he&#8217;ll need to improve to be more than just a defensive wizard.</p>
<p>The D-Jays rotation has a ton of potential that I would be remiss start with anyone other than <strong>Conner Greene</strong>. You’ve probably heard a lot about him this spring already, but it bears repeating. Like Alford, Greene took a huge leap forward last year. The former seventh round pick threw well in Lansing, dominated in Dunedin for seven starts and eventually made it all the way to New Hampshire. Armed with a fastball that was touching 98 mph this spring and an improving curve, Greene is somebody that could come rather quickly. However, also like Alford, the new regime choose to slow him down a bit and let him pitch in the Florida sun after a wild 2015. He’s another one that should be in NH before July arrives.</p>
<p>The rest of the rotation brings more risk but a lot of upside. The most intriguing player for me is one-time bonus baby <strong>Adonys Cardona</strong>. The injury plagued Venezuelan, signed at 16, has just turned 22 and has only managed 83 mostly unimpressive professional innings (not counting the DSL), but the stuff is supposedly still elite. He is apparently bringing high nineties heat with his fastball and impressively sharp secondary pitches. If the newly revamped training staff (no doubt the reason he’s on the Dunedin roster rather than Lansing) can keep him on the mound, this could be the breakout candidate for the entire minor league system. [Last minute update: Cardona isn&#8217;t scheduled to start during the first turn through the rotation. The team may be using him in the bullpen initially, or even long term. This is a factor to pay attention to, putting him in relief may be something they feel is dictated by his inability to stay heathy. However, as a reliever he might move quickly]</p>
<p><strong>Tom Robson</strong> is here too. In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery the watchful eye of the Dunedin trainers will be handy with him as well. While his numbers don’t reflect it, some around the team expect a lot from Robson this year. The same can be said for <strong>Ryan Burucki</strong>. Drafted in 2012, he’s mentioned among the high ceiling guys every year and every year he manages to get hurt. The lefty has fewer than 70 professional inning, but 57 of those were in 2014 and they were quite impressive. Like the two aforementioned, he’s likely in Dunedin specifically because the organization wants to employ the best possible resources to keep him healthy.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep On&#8230;</strong></em></h4>
<p>Catcher <strong>Danny Jansen</strong>. It would be easy overlook the Illinois native if all you did was look at the stats from last season, one interrupted by a major injury. But many observers believe he has put himself into the conversation for the organization&#8217;s best catching prospect (given the even more severe injury issues of a certain former first round choice). I’m not ready to go that far yet, but he’s much better than last year’s results.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>DJ Davis</strong> is here too! I don’t suppose you’ve completely forgotten the less successful of the team’s two Mississippi outfielders, but anyone can be forgiven for not seeing him past the white-hot intensity of Alford’s success. Davis showed dramatic improvement last year, but he’ll need to do just that again to convince the many skeptics that he has any hope of a major league future.</p>
<h4><strong><em>TNSTAA(R)PP</em></strong></h4>
<p>This is particularly true in Dunedin to start the year. So in the absence of a guy I can tell you has upside (I guess <strong>Justin Schafer</strong> might be . . . something . . . maybe) I’ll give you an interesting storyline. Remember <strong>Gustavo Pierre</strong>, the hacking Dominican bonus baby SS-turned-3B who struggled with both the bat and the glove? Well the Blue Jays are giving him a shot on the mound. If they assigned him to a full season roster, particularly Dunedin, he must have shown them something.</p>
<h3><a href="http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?sid=t499">LANSING LUGNUTS</a></h3>
<p>Not much to get excited about here in the field, save one guy, but there&#8217;s the potential for a big-time starting rotation.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Star Turn</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Sean Reid-Foley</strong>, who’s also 20, was one of the most aggressively promoted prospects under the previous regime. After a taste of Gulf Coast League ball in 2014 following his second round selection out of high school, he surprisingly broke camp last year at low-A Lansing. Armed with a mid 90s fastball and a wicked slider, Reid-Foley actually pitched well enough, despite evident control issues, to eventually receive eight starts in Dunedin. Neither assignment would have have been a shock this year, but it seems the team is daring Reid-Foley to dominate in low-A and harness his commend before getting any promotion. Chances are if he holds up his end of that proposition, Reid-Foley will move quickly.</p>
<h4><em><strong>One to Watch</strong></em></h4>
<p>The other potential star turn would 2015 First Round pick <strong>Jon Harris</strong>. The 6’4” RHP was thought to be quite the steal when the team drafted him and some observers said he’d be able to move as fast as anyone in the draft due to a very mature approach. But fatigue largely ruined his debut so he’s looking for a rebound for the full-season Lugnuts.  He works with a sinking fastball between 92-94 and has a true four pitch mix, with curveball, slider and changeup all flashing plus at times. The fast-mover tag hasn’t faded too far into the rear-view and if he shows any consistency, he’ll challenge Reid-Foley for the honor of first promotion.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Don’t Sleep On…</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Lane Thomas </strong>is a third baseman-turned center fielder-turned second baseman who now listed again as a center fielder, but my sources tell me not to assume the 2B plan is dead. Thomas announced his presence with authority in 2014, putting up an .814 OPS as an 18 year old at Bluefield. However, he struggled all year at Vancouver last year and I, among others, were troubled to see such a promising player falter to that degree. I kept my eye out for reports on what was going wrong and it turns out he was dealing with a pretty serious wrist injury all year which obviously greatly affected his hitting. My source says he is healed and strong now and this may be the hitter that gets the most “where did this guy come from?” chatter in the coming year.</p>
<h4><em><strong>Remember Him?</strong></em></h4>
<p>Pop quiz! Who was the 1st round (35th overall) pick by the Blue Jays in 2011? If you said <strong>Jacob Anderson</strong> then possibly you, like me, spend far too much time paying attention to minor leaguers. Anderson was described by some as a nice bargain at the pick. After he hit .405 in a handful of GCL at bats that year I was perhaps overly invested in him for a while. Then he struggled in 2012, missed all of ‘13 and effectively all (10 AB) of 2014. He managed to get 63 AB last year as a 22 year old at Bluefield before a pitch to the head put him out of commission again. I had basically moved on from him, but here he is, on a full season team, trying to hold himself together long enough to rediscover the talent he had on Draft Day.</p>
<h4><em><strong>TNSTAA(R)PP</strong></em></h4>
<p>Noting truly remarkable here, but <strong>Travis Bergen </strong>was the team’s 7th round pick in 2015 out of Kennesaw State and he might be a fast mover.</p>
<p>Other notes &#8211; Another SP that you must pay attention to on this team is 6’6” Dominican lefty <strong>Angel Perdomo</strong>. Word is that when he’s on he’s a monster on the mound, but just lacks some consistency, particularly with control. He could combine with Harris and Reid-Foley to deliver this team it’s seemingly annual first-half title.</p>
<h4><em><strong>“But what about…?”</strong></em></h4>
<p><strong>Max Pentecost</strong>? Pentecost is technically on the Lansing roster but disabled. No one seems to know anything about the former first rounder and &#8220;Catcher of the Future&#8221;. He’s probably still physically in Dunedin working with the training staff to get game ready and the Lansing assignment is a paperwork matter. [Last minute update: Pentecost has disappeared from the Lansing roster. Presumably he does remain in extended]</p>
<p><strong>Clinton Hollon</strong>? Hollon is finishing up his amphetamine suspension that carried over from late last season. He is due back in early May and stands to give the Lugnuts a four man quartet in the rotation that would be unrivaled in the system. As for the suspension, see the <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/18/after-set-backs-in-2015-clinton-hollon-is-ready-to-take-flight/">great piece</a> on this site by Gideon Turk for the inside scoop.</p>
<p><strong>Mitch Nay</strong>? Nay opens the season on the Dunedin DL. He left the field last summer because of a staph infection which apparently took a pretty big toll on him. No word on the nature of his disability this spring, or whether or not it’s related.</p>
<p><strong>Matt Smoral</strong>? I continue to hold out hope for the big lefty since he spent the winter working with <a href="https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/" target="_blank">Driveline Baseball</a>. He will likely remain in Extended Spring Training with a potential assignment yet to be determined. He may yet end up with Dunedin or Lansing before the short-season teams begin play.</p>
<p><strong>Ryan McBroom</strong>? He’s in Dunedin, playing 1B, wishing he didn’t have Tellez soaking up all the press in front of him on the depth chart.</p>
<p>If there’s any other player you saw mentioned on a Top Prospect list anywhere I didn’t mention, the odds are very high indeed that said player is young enough that he’ll be playing on a short-season team. Yes, that includes <strong>Vlad Guerrero, Jr.</strong> &#8211; which probably puts a damper on his <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/guerrero-jr-hopes-to-be-in-majors-in-two-years/" target="_blank">plans to get to the bigs in two years</a>. Kudos go to my friend, the ever-gracious <a href="https://twitter.com/jgoldstrass">Jesse Goldberg-Strassler</a> for valuable insight on some of these guys.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Minor League Update: Spring Training Edition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/minor-league-update-spring-training-edition/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/minor-league-update-spring-training-edition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 15:53:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor League Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conner Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=379</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At this point in the spring, the majority of the prospects who were invited to major league camp have been sent out to join their fellow young players at the opening of minor league spring training. That makes this a nice time to take a look at just how well the prospects did in their time playing with the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point in the spring, the majority of the prospects who were invited to major league camp have been sent out to join their fellow young players at the opening of minor league spring training. That makes this a nice time to take a look at just how well the prospects did in their time playing with the big boys. It’s worth keeping in mind that spring training stats tend to be some of the most misleading statistics you will ever see. Not only are they an impossibly small sample size, but they also come against wildly different competition levels.</p>
<p>While this segment will only feature prospects during the season, for Spring Training I am also including some more veteran players who are competing for a spot on the back end of the 25-man, opening day roster.</p>
<p><strong>AJ Jimenez</strong> – C –</p>
<p>6 Games, 13 AB &#8211; .455/.538/.727 – 1 HR, 0 SB, 2 BB, 1 K</p>
<p>In the two years since Jimenez returned from his Tommy John surgery, his prospect stock has plummeted to the point where I was surprised that he remained on the 40 man roster over the winter. However, Jimenez picked the exact right time to see a return of the promising bat that scouts once saw in him. With Dioner Navarro leaving this offseason via free agency, and Josh Thole slotted into the backup catcher role, the time is now for Jimenez to make a push for a major league role. The home run is easily the most exciting aspect of Jimenez performance thus far in spring training. Yes, it may have come against Orioles minor leaguer Parker Bridwell, but when you are a player who has only hit nine home runs in the last four years combined, beggars can’t be choosers.</p>
<p>With his defensive reputation, including a very strong throwing arm, Jimenez won’t need to post gaudy offensive numbers to be a contributor at the major league level. Couple that with the likes of Thole ahead of him on the depth chart, there is certainly a chance that if Jimenez continues to produce once the minor league season gets started that we could get a chance to see him at some point in 2016. He&#8217;s out of options, but it&#8217;s hard to see him not clearing waivers given his lack of playing time the last few years.</p>
<p><strong>Darrell Ceciliani</strong> – CF –</p>
<p>10 Games, 18 AB &#8211; .444/.565/.778 – 1 HR, 3 2B, 0 SB, 4 BB, 4 K</p>
<p>Coming into the spring, it was assumed that Dalton Pompey would be sent back to Triple A for a little bit more seasoning, so the Jays had an open slot for their fourth outfielder role. The competition was supposed to feature the likes of Ezequiel Carrera, Junior Lake, or Domonic Brown, however, the overlooked man in this competition could wind up being Darrell Ceciliani, whom the Jays acquired via trade from the Mets (for cash) in early February.</p>
<p>In the first two weeks of spring training, Ceciliani has been the Jays best hitter, and certainly requires a longer look as the team progresses closer to opening day. It&#8217;s honestly quite puzzling why the Mets were willing to dump Ceciliani for just cash. While he was unproductive in his first 39 games in the big leagues, Ceciliani destroyed the PCL last season to the tune of a .345/.398/.581 slash line. While those numbers are certainly inflated by playing his home games in Las Vegas, they still pop off the page. When you couple that stat line, with a player entering his prime at the age of 26, and most importantly still having minor league options remaining, he seems like a player most teams would like to keep.</p>
<p>I try as little as possible to draw conclusions from spring training stats, but given my lack of faith in many of the players with whom Ceciliani is competing, I think there is least a non-zero chance that he could break camp with the big league team.</p>
<p><strong>Andy Burns</strong> &#8211; UT &#8211;</p>
<p>13 Games, 18 AB &#8211; .333/.455/.722 &#8211; 1 HR, 1 3B, 1 2B, 4 BB, 3 K</p>
<p>Along with Ceciliani, Andy Burns has been one of the Jays hottest hitters throughout the early part of spring training. Burns has seen time at 2nd base, 3rd base, and left field, and the Blue Jays seem fully committed to him developing into a utility man. What&#8217;s been one of the more impressive aspects of Burns success thus far in the spring is that he&#8217;s done most of his damage against right-handed pitching. Throughout Burns minor league career, he has been most known for punishing lefties. With Ryan Goins as the team&#8217;s starting 2nd baseman, I believe there could be a role for Burns on the major league roster. If Darwin Barney flops to start the season, and Devon Travis&#8217; return is delayed, I could see the club turning to Burns.</p>
<p><strong>Jio Mier</strong> – SS –</p>
<p>12 Games, 20 AB &#8211; .350/.350/.600 – 1 HR, 2 2B, 0 SB, 0 BB, 4 K</p>
<p>Mier, the former Astros first round pick, was acquired by the Jays via minor league free agency over the winter. Given pedigree, which albeit has faded, Mier is more intriguing than most minor league free agents.  That makes seeing these types of early positive signs something worth noticing at least. Given that Mier is already behind Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Goins, and Darwin Barney on the depth chart, and will soon to be pushed even further down by a returning Devon Travis, it’s tough to see the path to playing time for Mr. Mier. That being said, it’s worth remembering that Jonathan Diaz saw time on the major league roster in each of the past two seasons.</p>
<p><strong>Dalton Pompey</strong> – CF –</p>
<p>10 Games, 21 AB &#8211; .190/.261/.524 – 2 HR, 1 2B, 0 SB, 2 BB, 7 K</p>
<p>Dalton Pompey is a perfect example of why Spring Training numbers just can’t be taken at face value. The only thing that is preventing Pompey’s 21 spring training plate appearances from being a complete black hole are the pair of home runs that he has slugged so far. However, it just so happens that those dingers happen to have been hit off the Athletics’ Andrew Triggs, and the Orioles’ Chris Lee. You can be excused if you’ve never heard of either of those pitchers, because neither of them has ever pitched above Double-A.</p>
<p>I had come into the spring with the hope that if things broke right for Pompey he would could win the fourth outfielder role, or even had an outside shot at even winning the starting left field job. With a slow start you’d have to imagine that scenario is out the window now, so look for Pompey to head to Buffalo once the minor league season gets started. Hopefully he will be ready to produce when called upon.</p>
<p><strong>Domonic Brown</strong> – OF –</p>
<p>8 Games, 22 AB &#8211; .182/.280/.364 – 2 3B, 0 SB, 3 BB, 3 K</p>
<p><strong>Junior Lake </strong>– OF –</p>
<p>8 Games, 22 AB &#8211; .227/.292/.364 – 0 HR, 3 2B, 1 SB, 1 BB, 4 K</p>
<p><strong>Ezequiel Carrera</strong> – OF</p>
<p>8 Games, 15 AB &#8211; .067/.222/.067 – 0 HR, 1 SB, 3 BB, 5 K</p>
<p>Carrera, Brown, and Lake are all competing for the fourth outfielder spot with Ceciliani &amp; Pompey, and none of them have done much of anything thus far into the spring. With Lake and Carrera both out of options, I had assumed that either of them would get the first opportunity, but unless they start to put up at least respectable numbers the rest of the way they are in danger of being passed over.</p>
<p>In Brown’s case, since he could be sent down to Buffalo freely, he was always facing an uphill battle to make the opening day roster. Since he provides negative defensive value, even in a corner outfield spot, he needs to show the club that they can’t afford to leave his bat down in the minors. That certainly hasn’t happened yet.</p>
<p><strong>Rowdy Tellez</strong> – 1B –</p>
<p>9 Games, 11 AB &#8211; .182/.250/.182 – 0 SB, 1 BB, 3 K</p>
<p><strong>Anthony Alford</strong> – CF –</p>
<p>11 Games, 10 AB &#8211; .100/.308/.100 – 0 SB, 3 BB, 4 K</p>
<p><strong>Richard Urena</strong> – SS –</p>
<p>8 Games, 14 AB &#8211; .214/.214/.286 – 0 HR, 1 2B, 1 SB, 0 BB, 1 K</p>
<p>Taken together, Alford, Urena, and Tellez are the Jays top 3 position player prospects. While each of them has struggled thus far, we should pay zero attention to any of these stats. None of these players is older than 21 years old, and they are facing better competition than they’ve ever seen. The main reason for inviting prospects like this to major league training camp is not to have them produce on the field, but rather to have them interact with established major league veterans, and learn from their habits. All three of these players have since been reassigned to minor league camp, and I look forward to each producing once the minor league season gets under way.</p>
<p><strong>Conner Greene – </strong>Starting Pitcher</p>
<p>2 Games, 2 IP – 0.00 ERA, 1 Hit, 3 Ks, 2 BB</p>
<p>The Jays top pitching prospect was only in major league camp for a cup of coffee, but acquitted himself quite well in the two games he in which he appeared. His first inning of work came against the Phillies, and despite walking JP Arencibia (lol), he struck out the side. While he didn’t face a major leaguer, one of his victims was Phillies top prospect Nick Williams. Greene came back a few days later, and in his lone inning against the Rays, he managed to retire major leaguers Brad Miller, Steven Souza &amp; Logan Forsythe. Soon after that game, Green was reassigned to Minor League camp, so we won’t be getting another chance to look at him until the New Hampshire Fisher Cats season gets underway in the first week of April. While this is the smallest of possible samples, there were nothing but positives to take away from Greene this spring.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Non-Roster Invites in Blue Jays Camp: The Prospects</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/12/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-prospects/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/12/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-prospects/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Mar 2016 13:49:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Burns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Girodo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Connor Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Jensen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrick Chung]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Smith Jr]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jio Mier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matthew Dean]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=77</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on the 40 man roster &#8211; twelve pitchers and seventeen position players. Fourteen (eight pitchers, six hitters) of these players have some major league experience while the remaining eighteen players comprising of minor league fodder mixed in with legitimate prospects.</em></p>
<p><em>BP Toronto will be breaking down these NRIs into three groups &#8211; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-pitchers/">veteran pitchers</a>, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=57" target="_blank">veteran hitters</a>, and prospects &#8211; and assessing their odds of making the opening day roster.</em></p>
<p><strong>Derrick Chung – Catcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .238/.288/.323 – 2 HR, 0 SB, 16 BB, 41 K &#8211; .222 TAv, -0.8 WARP</p>
<p>As a 28-year-old who&#8217;s only played 71 games above Single A, it&#8217;s fairly safe to assume that Derrick Chung isn&#8217;t much of a prospect. While Chung has shown an excellent batting eye, his two career home runs, and sub .350 slugging percentage leaves much to be desired. Despite his struggles at the plate, Chung comes with a strong defensive reputation for both working with pitchers, and throwing out would be base stealers. This isn&#8217;t the profile of a player destined for a major league career. However, those skills usually lead to a long minor league career followed by a career in coaching.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Chung is a valuable piece for a major league club, even though he&#8217;s incredibly unlikely to don a Blue Jays uniform. His value will come via working with young pitchers as they attempt to make the critical developmental jump to AA.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p><strong>*Danny Jansen – Catcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .211/.273/.335 – 6 HR, 0 SB, 19 BB, 53 K &#8211; .221 TAv, -0.2 WARP</p>
<p>Like Chung, Jansen is a player whose primary skill is his discipline at the plate. However, unlike Chung, he has shown at least some power (5 HRs last season). More importantly, Jansen is only 20 years old. With that said, catching prospects are always the most difficult to get a handle on until they reach the upper levels&#8230;so it&#8217;s tough to predict how he will progress.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> With A.J. Jimenez having lost all of his prospect sheen, and with Max Pentecost&#8217;s status behind the plate in question, Jansen in the Jays top catching prospect. We&#8217;re at least two years away from Jansen even sniffing the big league roster, but he&#8217;s an interesting player to keep track of.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>Low A Lansing</p>
<p>While there was some promise to Jansen&#8217;s season in Lansing last year, I&#8217;d think that his .206 BA wouldn&#8217;t cut it for a promotion. He&#8217;ll probably reach High A Dunedin at some point this season, but it won&#8217;t be at the beginning.</p>
<p><strong>*Rowdy Tellez – First Baseman</strong></p>
<p><em>PECOTA Projection: </em>250 PA &#8211; .229/.279/.388 – 8 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 65 K &#8211; .229 TAv, -0.3 WARP</p>
<p>When Rowdy Tellez was drafted in the 30th round of the 2013 draft, he was largely seen as unsignable. That all changed when the Jays failed to sign their first round pick, Phil Bickford, and instead devoted all their excess bonus pool money to signing the power hitting first baseman. In 2015, he rocketed through the Midwest League. As well, despite battling a wrist injury, his second half promotion to the Florida State League was a massive success. With enough plate appearances, he would&#8217;ve finished second in the league in slugging percentage.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Tellez is the Blue Jays&#8217; top power prospect. With both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista being free agents at the end of the 2016 season, the club may be in need for a power bat by this time next year. With that said, it&#8217;s doubtful that Tellez will be ready that soon. It&#8217;s also still unclear if he has the ability to hit, and hit for power, at the major league level. Nevertheless, he&#8217;s one of the most intriguing prospects to track this upcoming season.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment:</em> High A Dunedin.</p>
<p>While Tellez was very successful in Dunedin last year, he only played in 35 games at that level. As a result, you&#8217;d expect the Jays to let him prove himself there over a larger sample size. However, there is a chance that they get aggressive and push Tellez up to the Fisher Cats to begin the year.</p>
<p><strong>*Matthew Dean – First Baseman</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA – .217/.257/.358 &#8211; 7 HR, 0 SB, 11 BB, 79 K &#8211; .219 TAv, -0.9 WARP</p>
<p>As a non-elite prospect who is restricted to first base, Dean is one of my least favourite type of prospects. Throughout his four year minor league career he has achieved just enough to get promoted further up the ladder, but not enough to really stand out. With that said, Dean did lead the notoriously pitcher friendly Florida State League in home runs. That&#8217;s more than enough to earn him another year of faith on the potential that he could develop into a second division starter at first base.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Dean is at least a full year away from being major league ready (if he&#8217;ll ever be). Strangely, his ability to hit both right and left handed pitchers almost equally is one of the biggest drawbacks to his big league future. If he had similar production, but did most of his damage against left handed pitching, you could see him as a platoon bench bat.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Matthew Dean will likely start the season as the Fisher Cats&#8217; staring first baseman. However, he could potentially be moved to designated hitter when Rowdy Tellez gets the call to AA.</p>
<p><strong>Andy Burns – Infielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .248/.297/.395 – 6 HR, 4 SB, 16 BB, 51 K &#8211; .247 TAv, 0.5 WARP</p>
<p>Burns was drafted as a shortstop in 2011, but he was quickly shifted off the position. Over the past two seasons, he has shifted into a super utility role, having played every position on the diamond except for catcher and centre field. He’s unlikely to ever be an impact defender at any of those positions, but that added flexibility gives him an increased chance to make the big leagues. As does his ability to consistently hit left handed pitching. In every season that he has played as a professional, Burns has posted an OPS of .800+ against southpaws. That has all the makings of a quality bench player.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> Burns is a low upside prospect, but one who could still provide value to the big league club as a utility bench bat at some point in the near future. Given his success hitting versus left handed pitching it’s even possible that he could emerge as a platoon starter.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA Buffalo</p>
<p>Even with Devon Travis starting the season on the disabled list, Burns is still behind both Goins and Barney on the second base depth chart. He&#8217;s also behind Donaldson and Dominguez on the third base depth chart. As a result, he&#8217;ll likely spend most of the season in AAA.</p>
<p><strong>Jio Mier – Shortstop</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .209/.278/.309 – 4 HR, 3 SB, 22 BB, 61 K &#8211; .215 TAv, -0.6 WARP</p>
<p>Mier was acquired via minor league free agency this offseason. At lot of his sheen comes from the fact that he was drafted 21st overall in 2009. Despite some initial success, Mier&#8217;s career largely stalled after arriving in AA in 2013. At that point, his contact rate completely collapsed, and scouts were starting to question whether he could stick at shortstop.  Strangely, despite never hitting, the Astros yo-yo’d Mier back and forth between AAA and AA before losing him to minor league free agency past offseason.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>With Munenori Kawasaki and Jonathan Diaz leaving the organization over the offseason, Mier has replaced them on the depth chart in the middle infield. He’ll provide stability for the Bisons, and be emergency depth in case of middle infield injuries.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA</p>
<p>Mier will begin the year manning shortstop for the Bisons, and with Devon Travis already on the shelf, he’s probably only a single injury away from heading to Toronto.</p>
<p><strong>*Anthony Alford – Center Fielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .223/.304/.345 – 5 HR, 7 SB, 25 BB, 72 K &#8211; .235 TAv, -0.1 WARP</p>
<p>At this point, I think most Blue Jays fans are familiar with Alford’s story. The former football star, who put his baseball career on hold until the end of the 2014 season. In the first full season that he devoted to baseball, Alford had a bigger breakout than any prospect in the game. The most surprising aspect of Alford’s breakout was the true baseball skills he showed. It was expected that Alford had the tools to succeed, but seeing his discipline at the plate, and his efficiency in stealing bases has given me even more faith that he will develop into the star he seems destined to become.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Alford fits as the top prospect in the Blue Jays newly depleted minor league system. If things go especially well this upcoming year, it’s possible that we could see Alford for a cameo in September. However, it’s more likely that the Jays hold him down to preserve his service time.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Considering Alford played 57 games in Dunedin last season, it’s conceivable that the Blue Jays send him back to there to start the season. With that said, he also laid waste to the Florida State League in his cameo appearance there. As a result, I expect the Jays push him up to New Hampshire.</p>
<p><strong>*Dwight Smith Jr. – Outfielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .236/.297/.364 – 5 HR, 2 SB, 20 BB, 51 K &#8211; .238 TAv, -0.3 WARP</p>
<p>Dwight Smith Jr. is a very difficult prospect to get a handle on. He lacks any significant upside, as a likely fourth outfielder. This is largely due to the fact that he lacks a carrying tool. However, while Smith lacks the carrying tool, he also doesn’t have a real weakness either. He isn’t my favourite type of prospect, but he is one who could provide some value to the big league team.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>With Michael Saunders currently slotted in as the starting left fielder, and a collection of veteran fliers in the mix for the fourth outfield spot, I think it&#8217;s incredibly unlikely that Smith gets an opportunity at the major league level this season.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Given the struggles that Smith showed in the sound half while battling injuries, it&#8217;s difficult to justify promoting him up the ladder to AAA. As a result I’m expecting he&#8217;ll restart the season down in New Hampshire. Hopefully he can prove he’s ready for the next challenge and his stay there won’t be long.</p>
<p><strong>*Conner Greene – Starting Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 88.5 IP – 4.75 ERA, 5.04 DRA, 5.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9</p>
<p>Connor Greene rocketed through the Jays system in 2015, going from Lansing all the way to New Hampshire. In doing so, he emerged as a very legitimate prospect. While the Blue Jays consistently had a highly rated farm system in the Anthopoulos era, it was rarely on the backs of low round draft picks. As a result, seeing someone like Greene emerge from that quagmire is a true credit to the team’s developmental staff.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>After the Blue Jays traded away 11 pitching prospects at last year’s trade deadline, Greene remains the top pitching prospect left in the Jays system. While it’s unlikely that we&#8217;ll see Greene pitch for the Jays this season, he’s a key name to keep in mind if they need to upgrade the major league squad at the deadline.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Greene will start the 2016 season where he left off 2015 in Double A New Hampshire. I expect that he&#8217;ll stay there for the majority of the season, especially with the Jays increased pitching depth<strong> </strong>decreasing their need for spot starters in 2016.</p>
<p><strong>Chad Girodo – Relief Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 50.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 4.42 DRA, 6.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9</p>
<p>The Jays selected Girodo in the 9<span style="font-size: small"><span style="line-height: 20px">th</span></span> round of the 2013 draft. He was primarily selected because, as a senior, he&#8217;d sign for just $10,000, and then the Jays could save money to spend on the rest of their draft picks. However, despite the low expectations, Girodo has climbed the ladder and emerged as a quality relief prospect (even though that is somewhat of an oxymoron).</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>The Jays have an abundance of contenders for the final bullpen slot coming out of camp. Girodo is clearly behind most of the veteran contenders in camp, but if he goes back to Buffalo and posts similar numbers to what he did last year it&#8217;s possible we could see him later in the year.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA Buffalo</p>
<p>Girodo got a cup of coffee in Triple A to close out 2015, so he will start the season back there for 2016.</p>
<p><em>*denotes player has already been reassigned to minor league camp</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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