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		<title>The True Legacies of R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/03/the-true-legacies-of-r-a-dickey-and-josh-thole/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Nov 2016 10:00:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Season That Was]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alex anthopoulos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7759</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO – The good, the bad, the ugly, and the great. That’s how Josh Thole described his time in Toronto over the past four years. It was a fitting description for the tumultuous times he and batterymate R.A. Dickey shared while in a Blue Jays uniform. The duo entered their time in Toronto with a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO – The good, the bad, the ugly, and the great.</p>
<p>That’s how Josh Thole described his time in Toronto over the past four years. It was a fitting description for the tumultuous times he and batterymate R.A. Dickey shared while in a Blue Jays uniform.</p>
<p>The duo entered their time in Toronto with a precipitous amount of fanfare and expectations thanks in large part to Dickey entering as the reigning NL Cy Young winner. They had a lot of ups and downs in the middle, and things ended quietly as they watched their teammates perform in the postseason without them.</p>
<p>Yet over those four years the landscape of Toronto Blue Jays baseball altered drastically; blue once again became a dominant colour on the uniform, Blue Jays fever swept the nation, an MVP became a household name, attendance skyrocketed and so did the wins. Both of those men were at the heart of it all.</p>
<p>Dickey started 130 games for the Jays over that stretch and threw 824 innings, and Thole played in 170 games, most of which came with Dickey on the mound. At this juncture, with their Toronto careers almost certainly over, their stats are a moot point. But what you’d find is a slightly above average innings-eater pitcher and a below average specialty catcher, the combination of which got a lot of scorn from Blue Jays fans and active social media users. But what fans also got were two trips to the postseason with two legitimate chances to advance to the World Series that fell just short.</p>
<p>“I take away in particular the last two years,” Dickey said reminiscing about his time in Toronto. “I mean, some of us have been together for four years so we have seen the process of how this thing has happened and getting to be in the playoffs in two of the last four years is a pretty remarkable feat in this day and age with how good these teams are.</p>
<p>“To be 50 percent of the time we go to the League Championship Series, that’s pretty good. Of course, you’re not satisfied, but it’s certainly a hard thing to do, so I really appreciate that.”</p>
<p>With the club achieving heights it hadn’t even sniffed in 21 years, the team’s success is the greatest argument for the duo despite what their personal stats might ultimately suggest. Even with neither making the 2016 postseason roster, without their accomplishments in the regular season the team simply doesn’t get to play beyond game 162 in either of the past two seasons.</p>
<blockquote><p>“To be 50 percent of the time we go to the League Championship Series, that’s pretty good. Of course, you’re not satisfied, but it’s certainly a hard thing to do, so I really appreciate that.” &#8211; R.A. Dickey</p></blockquote>
<p>However, the battery&#8217;s on-field performance is secondary to what their presence really meant to the Jays. Acquired from the New York Mets on December 17, 2012 by then-general manager Alex Anthopoulos for two elite prospects, Dickey and Thole were part of drastic shift in philosophy that aimed towards winning now. That move, along with the blockbuster Miami Marlins trade a month prior, influenced Blue Jays baseball more than any other and led directly to where the club stands today.</p>
<p>The first season with Dickey as the team’s presumptuous ace was underwhelming on the field, with the club finishing last in its division and with only a solitary win above than the previous year&#8217;s total. What paved the greatest dividends towards the win-now mode wasn’t the on-field product so much as attendance and a growing TV audience. Thanks in large part to the pre-season hype from those two trades, the Rogers Centre eclipsed 2.5 million paying fans in 2013 for the first time since 1997.</p>
<p>In the four years that Dickey and Thole were in Toronto the Jays averaged over 34,256 fans in attendance for home games, over 11,000 more per night than the average attendance in the four years prior to their arrival. In addition, this past season saw the team set a new record with over one million people per game tuning in to Blue Jays baseball on television.</p>
<p>With attendance at an unprecedented high for modern Rogers Centre times, and a surplus of money flowing in, Anthopoulos was allowed to stay aggressive on the trade market to keep the team competitive. Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Devon Travis, David Price, and Troy Tulowtizki followed, with today’s core of the club forming in large part because Anthopoulos was allowed to shed prospects for win-now talent &#8211; Something that wouldn’t have happened in the same aggressive and bold manner had the off-season of 2012 never happened.</p>
<p>Ultimately, those moves in the 2012 off-season precipitated the moves that followed, leading to the two most compelling seasons in recent Jays history.</p>
<p>“Special,” said Thole about his time in a Jays uniform over the last four years after being eliminated from the postseason by Cleveland in Game 5 of the ALCS. “Been through the good, the bad, the ugly, and the great. These last two years have been something you dream of. I’m not even on the playoff roster, but just to be part of it all season, it’s unbelievable.”</p>
<p>Now that their tenure in Toronto is likely over, and after experiencing two deep postseason runs with the Jays and a Cy Young campaign with the Mets, the ever intertwined duo are most likely headed for very different futures after seven years as batterymates that included 164 games together.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Been through the good, the bad, the ugly, and the great. These last two years have been something you dream of.&#8221; &#8211; Josh Thole</p></blockquote>
<p>“I mean, seven years together. Who knows what’s going to happen,” Thole said about their future. “He’s getting towards the end here. So, who knows. Who knows what’s going to happen. It’s unbelievable. Again, it’s something that you never dream of and it’s happened. I’ve been, you’re right, attached to him.”</p>
<p>“It’s hard to imagine a team without him because I’ve been with him seven years now,” Dickey said of Thole. “I consider him a friend before anything.</p>
<p>“He’s caught more of my starts than anyone in my whole career. I would venture to say he’s caught more of my starts than any catcher has caught somebody’s starts anywhere, regardless if they’re a knuckleballer or not. So, it’s been a special bond that we’ve had. We’ve been through a lot of ups and downs together. It’s been fun. I’ll miss it if it doesn’t continue.”</p>
<p>Without each other it’s unclear if there’s a place for them in Major League Baseball. One thing’s for sure though, the last two magical runs to the postseason don’t happen without them or the trade that preceded their arrival. Their on field performance may not have had the impact anyone envisioned when they were acquired, but their impact off the field and on management is unmistakable.</p>
<p>For that alone Jays fans should be thankful.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: Remembering R.A. Dickey, the Hopeful Ace</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/25/this-week-in-blue-jays-remembering-r-a-dickey-the-hopeful-ace/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 25 Sep 2016 11:36:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ace]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[noah syndergaard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6911</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[His final line read as such: 0.1 IP, 0 hits, 1 run (0 earned), 0 strikeouts, 0 walks, 11 pitches, and 7 strikes. Losing pitcher of record. While the Seattle Mariners were celebrating their extra-innings walk-off win against the Blue Jays Wednesday evening, R.A. Dickey walked off the mound for what may have been the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>His final line read as such: 0.1 IP, 0 hits, 1 run (0 earned), 0 strikeouts, 0 walks, 11 pitches, and 7 strikes. Losing pitcher of record.</p>
<p>While the Seattle Mariners were celebrating their extra-innings walk-off win against the Blue Jays Wednesday evening, R.A. Dickey walked off the mound for what may have been the last time in a Toronto uniform.</p>
<p>It was a moment of heartbreak for both players and fans. After a spectacular one-out home run by Jose Bautista to tie the game at one run apiece, John Gibbons finally gave the nod to Dickey, marking his first relief appearance since being traded to Toronto. Three batters later, after a fielding error, sacrifice bunt, and sacrifice fly, Dickey was tagged with a loss that, perhaps more than any other, was indicative of his tenure in Toronto.</p>
<p>If that was indeed Dickey’s last outing as a Blue Jay, how will his time in Toronto be remembered?</p>
<p>Harken back to a mid-December day in 2012, when the Toronto Blue Jays excitedly announced that they had traded for the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, along with Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas, in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. The deal was woven into a much broader scheme to drastically revamp the team. This was, of course, the same offseason as the blockbuster trade with the Miami Marlins that brought Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson to the Jays. The Jays had set the baseball world on fire; 2013 would be their year.</p>
<p>At the time of the trade, the average Jays fans likely knew little, if anything at all, about R.A. Dickey except the manner in which he was presented to them: the reigning National League Cy Young winner who had won 20 games the previous season with an ERA of 2.73 over 233.2 innings pitched. Within the context of the rebuild, he was the final piece in the puzzle, a legitimate ace who would help lead the Jays back to the promised land of the playoffs.</p>
<p>That Dickey had been anointed the staff’s ace prior to throwing a pitch for the Jays was made apparent when during spring training manager John Gibbons announced that Dickey would be 2013’s opening day starter. By the time April 2 rolled around, the 2013 season hype had been in overdrive for months, and fans were eager for a run at the postseason.</p>
<p>Dickey was the losing pitcher of record for that opening day start, surrendering four runs (three earned) on five hits including a home run over six innings in a loss that epitomized the remainder of the season: great promise turned to great disappointment as the Jays finished the season 74-88.</p>
<p>In hindsight, that first start encapsulated much of his tenure in Toronto – Dickey pitched well enough to give his team a chance to win but was ultimately tagged with the loss. In his 130 games started for the Jays, Dickey average 6.34 innings per outing while the Jays provided an average of just 3.13 runs in support. Though he was never worse than league average, R.A. Dickey, with his oddball pitch and unconventional mannerisms, became the focus for many disgruntled fans. He was an easy target during those first two seasons for failing to deliver on what fans thought was the promise of an ace; and then, he became a target for being exactly what he had been his entire time in Toronto – a solid number four or five starter who, for reasons I find inexplicable, was deemed as inadequate for a playoff team.</p>
<p>The question is: was this fair? In a word, the answer is no.</p>
<p>The expectations heaped upon R.A. Dickey when he arrived in Toronto were enormous and, quite frankly, impossible to live up to. He was presented to fans as a legitimate ace for having won the Cy Young award the previous season. And, while those fans who followed baseball beyond the scope of Toronto were likely far more reserved in their excitement at his acquisition, the average Jays fan knew only of how he had been presented to them.</p>
<p>What perhaps was made unclear to the average fan was his Cy Young season had been the exception rather than the norm; that within the context of the American League East his knuckleball might not prove perilous to opposing hitters, particularly within the confines of the homerun-friendly Rogers Centre. Within the context of the climate created at the time, Dickey was destined to fall short of expectations, because those expectations had been set so unattainably high.</p>
<p>It is also unfair to judge Dickey’s time here against that on which the Jays lost out; flamethrower Noah Syndergaard has established himself as a true ace for the Mets, adding fuel to fire that seems to be stoked each and every time Dickey falters on the mound. Though both fans and the Jays organization may lament the loss of Syndergaard, the team traded him away willingly for what was at the time a known quantity, choosing a veteran over a prospect in a win-now scenario. To be disgruntled about the trade is entirely fair; to hold it against Dickey, who worked tirelessly and gave his very best, despite his best not always appearing to be so, is entirely unfair.</p>
<p>There is no doubt that the trade itself was a bust, particularly if Syndergaard continues to excel. That cannot be undone. If evaluating Dickey&#8217;s legacy  on his own merit, I believe it will mirror his four years in Toronto &#8211; he will be remembered as an average pitcher who could both dazzle and distress, often within the same game. He pitched gems and duds to a near-.500 record (he was 49-52 in Toronto) for a team that made the playoffs two of his four years in a Jays&#8217; uniform. To put it succinctly, the reviews will be mixed.</p>
<p>With Dickey’s future in baseball unclear &#8211; he is considering retirement &#8211; what is clear is the legacy he will leave behind for the baseball community as a whole. R.A. Dickey was not your prototypical athlete. He had to reinvent himself to remain relevant, toiling away with a trick pitch for which there was little guidance or understanding, carving himself out a niche in a world where fastball is king. When he used phrases such as &#8220;capricious animal&#8221; to explain why his knuckleball didn&#8217;t dance on a particular night, I never saw him as making excuses for himself; rather, I viewed him as someone cerebral who was searching for answers, something to which we can all relate. Quiet, reserved, set apart by age and circumstances, Dickey seemingly never quite fit in. But, while images of Dioner Navarro wearing a police officer&#8217;s hat or Jose Bautista smoking a cigar surrounded by a cloud of smoke after winning the AL East are inherently cool, there was nothing more joyous than seeing R.A. Dickey run gleefully around the entire stadium high-fiving fans like a little kid rekindling his love of baseball.</p>
<p>This is a man, after all, who shouldered the burden of speaking up about being a survivor of sexual abuse, and though the sports world has an awfully long way to go, his bravery to open up about something that is so rarely discussed within the world of professional sports no doubt helped pave the way for other survivors to share their stories. It is something that cannot and should not be overlooked when considering his contributions to baseball.</p>
<p>Think of him what you will, but I sincerely hope that he&#8217;ll receive the opportunity to take the mound one more time in Toronto, even if to face just one batter in relief. I, for one, would like to see him walk off the mound to applause so that both player and fans can acknowledge one another before parting ways.</p>
<p>In my estimation, R.A. Dickey deserves to go out like that.</p>
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		<title>Recap: Mariners 14, Blue Jays 5; Dickey Disappoints While Cruz Scores Touchdown</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/23/recap-mariners-14-blue-jays-5-dickey-disappoints-while-cruz-scores-touchdown/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jul 2016 20:37:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jesse Chavez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seattle Mariners]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4793</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Some days you just don&#8217;t have it. This certainly qualifies as one of those, as the Blue Jays were dominated by the Mariners on Saturday afternoon. The pitching was poor and the offense remained hidden after mustering up only four hits last night. Add it all up and it&#8217;s one to forget in the form [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some days you just don&#8217;t have it. This certainly qualifies as one of those, as the Blue Jays were dominated by the Mariners on Saturday afternoon. The pitching was poor and the offense remained hidden after mustering up only four hits last night. Add it all up and it&#8217;s one to forget in the form of a listless 14-5 defeat.</p>
<p>Toronto struck first when Kevin Pillar scored on a Josh Thole sacrifice fly in the second inning but things unraveled rather quickly thereafter. R.A. Dickey struggled mightily in what was the shortest outing of his Blue Jay career.</p>
<p>Gifted a lead, Dickey surrendered an infield single and hit two batters before giving up a grand slam to Nelson Cruz in the top of the 3rd. He came back out looking to reverse his fortunes in the fourth but loaded the bases, gave up another run on another infield hit and departed the game without recording an out in the 4th. Franklin Morales limited the damage and got out of the inning after another run scored, sending the Blue Jays into the bottom of the 4th trailing 6-1. Dickey&#8217;s final line reads 3.0 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 K on 72 pitches.</p>
<p>Jesse Chavez came on in the 6th and had a truly putrid day. He surrendered five consecutive hits before getting a double play off the bat of Cruz with the bases loaded. It looked like that would be the end of the scoring for the inning until Kyle Seager launched a two run homer to left center, making the score 11-1. Chavez&#8217;s final line: 0.2 IP, 6 H, 5 ER. Not good.</p>
<p>Drew Storen entered in the 8th and promptly gave up a walk, a ground rule double and a three run home run to Cruz. Cruz was a one man wrecking crew with the bat, notching seven RBI on the day. One inning pitched and three more earned runs off Storen, who just can&#8217;t seem to get going this season.</p>
<p>Michael Saunders homered to lead off the 6th and connected again in the 8th but was basically alone in the offensive attack. Justin Smoak hit a two run homer in the 8th to go with Saunders&#8217; solo shot but it was far too little and way too late for the Jays. The offense was baffled by Hisashi Iwakuma, who picked up his fif2th straight win. He worked 6.0 innings and gave up just four hits and two runs. The rest of the runs were scored off mop up man and former Blue Jay farmhand Wade LeBlanc.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s top play came early when Nelson Cruz hit his 9th career grand slam in the top of the 3rd inning. A monster mash into the center field seats, the big swing turned a one run deficit into a three run lead and served as a sign of things to come for the Mariners while accounting for a .283 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play also came early when R.A. Dickey coaxed a double play ball out of Leonys Martin in the top of the 2nd. With nobody out and runners on first and second, the twin killing helped Dickey escape unscathed. At least for one inning. The GIDP earned a -.108 WPA.</p>
<h3>Hey It&#8217;s Franklin, Comin&#8217; Over to Play</h3>
<p>Franklin Morales returned to the Blue Jays after being activated from his rehab assignment yesterday. The team has been desperate for relief help and would love if Morales can become an effective second lefty out of the bullpen. He picked up 2.0 innings of work on just 17 pitches today, entering with the bases loaded and nobody out in the 4th and only allowing one inherited runner to score on a double play. He only gave up one hit in the top of the 5th in an encouraging reintroduction.</p>
<p>Another injured Blue Jay returned to the lineup today as Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s nagging Achilles was apparently no issue this afternoon. He returned to the leadoff spot and played the full day in right field so he should be fine going forward, though he&#8217;s been prone to minor re-aggravation so it&#8217;s something the team will keep an eye on.</p>
<h3>Smashing Saunders</h3>
<p>While most of the offense slept through today&#8217;s game, Michael Saunders hit his second and third dingers over the past two days. Both to left field, they were his 18th and 19th home runs of the season as the All Star continues to rake. He&#8217;s already tied his career high in homers in what&#8217;s been a wonderful season.</p>
<p>Perhaps the only other batting bright spot is Josh Donaldson&#8217;s run, as the reigning MVP has now reached base in 26 consecutive games.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will look to take the final game of the series tomorrow afternoon on Kevin Pillar bobblehead day. They&#8217;ll also see if there are any lingering effects from the line drive that hit JA Happ on his pitching arm in his previous start. Happ (12-3, 3.43 ERA) will be opposing left-hander Wade Miley (6-7, 5.36 ERA) with first pitch set for 1:07 ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: A&#8217;s 5, Blue Jays 4; Dickey Done In By Davis&#8217; Dual Dingers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/16/recap-as-5-jays-4-dickey-done-in-by-dual-davis-dingers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Jul 2016 22:58:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molly Tissenbaum]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Khris Davis]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4633</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After the bullpen couldn&#8217;t hold on for the win last night, the Blue Jays looked to rebound in an afternoon contest where Sonny Gray took the mound against R.A Dickey. Gray has struggled this year, coming in to today&#8217;s game with an ERA of 5.17, which is the highest in the American League. Josh Thole [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After the bullpen couldn&#8217;t hold on for the win last night, the Blue Jays looked to rebound in an afternoon contest where Sonny Gray took the mound against R.A Dickey. Gray has struggled this year, coming in to today&#8217;s game with an ERA of 5.17, which is the highest in the American League. Josh Thole had started the afternoon with a bang, hitting his first double of the season, and sending Troy Tulowitzki and Darwin Barney across the plate. R.A Dickey looked good in the first inning, but got himself into trouble in the second inning giving up a lead off home run to Khris Davis. Stephen Vogt then singled, and Dickey walked Marcus Semien. With one out, Ryon Healy got his first major league hit in grand fashion, crushing a 3-run home run to put the A&#8217;s in front of the Jays 4-2. Despite going just 1 for 11 against Gray coming in to this afternoon&#8217;s ball game, Edwin Encarnacion hit his 23rd homerun of the season, giving up a league leading 80th RBI. Dickey gave up a second home run to Davis in the 6th which put the A&#8217;s ahead 5-3. Dickey went 6 innings plus one batter, who he walked, before handing the ball to Drew Storen. Storen then hit Smolinski putting runners at first and second with nobody out. Ryon Healy came to the plate and singled through the left side and Marcus Semien was safe at the plate on the initial call, but after review the call was overturned, giving Saunders an outfield assist, and closing the book on Dickey&#8217;s afternoon. Aaron Loup came in to close out the 7th, despite hitting Alonso to load the bases. In the top of the 9th, Justin Smoak drilled a solo homerun to right center field off Ryan Madson to put the Jays within one of the A&#8217;s, but the Blue Jays rally couldn&#8217;t come through, as the Jays lost their second in a row to the A&#8217;s for the first time since 2014.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In just his second big league game, Ryon Healy was still searching for his first hit as a Major Leaguer. He got it in the bottom of the second inning, whacking a three-run homerun off Dickey, putting the A&#8217;s in front 4-2. (.269)</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With one out in the 6th and Darwin Barney on first after a walk, Josh Thole grounded into an inning ending double play (-.083).</p>
<h3>Smoak Another One&#8230; Or Two</h3>
<p>Before the start of the ball game today, news broke that Justin Smoak had signed a 2 year deal with the Jays worth $8.25 million. The deal also includes a $6 million club option in 2019. Smoak said he was happy to get the deal signed, but that he didn&#8217;t want to make a big deal of it; he just wants to continue to play and win games with the Jays. He celebrated his day by hitting a home run in the ninth inning.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Kevin Pillar reached safely in 8 consecutive games coming into the game this afternoon. Over his last 8 games, Pillar is hitting .414, slugging .483, and has an OBP of .452. He&#8217;s got 6 RBIs over the 8 game stretch.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>J.A. Happ will take the mound tomorrow afternoon at 4:05 pm against Rich Hill in the final game of the series. Happ is coming into this game sporting a 3.36 ERA, going 6-1 over his last 7 starts.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Neville E. Guard-USA Today Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Recap: Jays 8, Royals 3; Blue Jays Hit Home Runs, Water is Wet</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/05/recap-jays-8-royals-3-blue-jays-hit-home-runs-water-is-wet/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jul 2016 01:49:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4403</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chris Young facing the Blue Jays&#8217; powerful line-up seemed like a bad matchup for the Kansas City Royals, and the game bore that out. The Jays socked four home runs, two of them by Josh Donaldson, chasing Young early en route to an 8-3 victory. That he only allowed six runs was somewhat flattering to the embattled [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chris Young facing the Blue Jays&#8217; powerful line-up seemed like a bad matchup for the Kansas City Royals, and the game bore that out. The Jays socked four home runs, two of them by Josh Donaldson, chasing Young early en route to an 8-3 victory. That he only allowed six runs was somewhat flattering to the embattled Royals starter, who was hit hard and often in an outing that got into just the third inning before he was mercifully pulled. Former Toronto pitcher Chien-Ming Wang relieved him, and managed to keep the Jays mostly at bay after that, but the damage had already been done.</p>
<p>Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey looked fantastic early, his knuckler dancing all over the place as he struck out five of the first six hitters he faced. He did get into trouble a couple times over his seven inning outing, but worked out of it, and enjoyed the unusually strong support he got from the offense. The eight strikeouts he recorded were his second highest total of the season. An injury-depleted Royals lineup wasn&#8217;t able to mount much against him or Joe Biagini, who pitched the last two innings to finish up the contest.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The rain came early to the Rogers Centre tonight, as Young gave up an early centre field dinger to Josh Donaldson with one out in the first inning. The opening strike for the Blue Jays gave them a 1-0 lead, and increased their chance to win by 10.3 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After two airtight innings from Dickey, he ran into some trouble in the third inning, allowing a double and a walk with one out. Christian Colon came to the plate and grounded into a double play, ending the inning and the threat, lowering the Royals&#8217; chances to win by 10.2 percentage points.</p>
<h3>The Good and Bad of R.A. Dickey</h3>
<p>Dickey looked primed for a dominant outing after striking out the side in the first and following it up with two more in the second. His knuckleball was fluttering in and out of the strike zone, and the Royals weren&#8217;t close to it. As it happens with Dickey, the knuckleball stopped finding the strike zone, and he did get into some trouble in the middle innings. But he limited the damage, getting a couple of double plays, and even getting a strike out on a fastball in the fifth inning.</p>
<h3>Baserunning Mistakes</h3>
<p>The Jays tend to be aggressive on the base paths despite not having much team speed, and they made some mistakes in this game. With a 6-0 lead, one out in the third, and Wang in the game for the Royals, Kevin Pillar tried to steal second off Salvador Perez, who gunned him down. In the next inning, Ezequiel Carrera was caught in a run down on a ground ball to the shortstop, and was out between second and third (though he did stay on the bases long enough to get Donaldson to second base, essentially replacing him). Then, in the sixth inning, Devon Travis inexplicably tried to steal second base with Josh Thole at the plate, in what might have been a failed hit-and-run. Though none of the mistakes mattered to the result, they were still very curious.</p>
<h3>The Offense Continues to Roll</h3>
<p>Even with Jose Bautista on the disabled list, the Jays&#8217; offense has been rolling recently, scoring a total of  40 runs in their last four games. Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki continued hitting everything in sight, accounting for three home runs and five RBIs between them on the evening. Though they won&#8217;t always have the pleasure of facing Chris Young, it&#8217;s been fantastic to see the Jays beating up on teams much like the 2015 team did, rolling out to a big lead and never letting the opponent back into the game. Hopefully the hitters can stay hot, and the Jays can keep racking up wins.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow&#8217;s third game of the series also starts at 7:07 ET, and sees the Jays send opening day starter Marcus Stroman (6-4, 5.08 ERA) to the mound. He will face free-agent acquisition Ian Kennedy (6-7, 4.04). After struggling for the last couple of months, Stroman had an encouraging start Saturday against the Indians, going six innings and allowing just one run, striking out six batters. Despite coming up with the Yankees, Kennedy hasn&#8217;t faced the Blue Jays since September 13, 2007, when he threw seven strong innings in an eventual loss.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Cleveland 4, Blue Jays 1; Can&#8217;t Crack Carrasco</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/30/recap-indians-4-blue-jays-1-cant-crack-carrasco/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/30/recap-indians-4-blue-jays-1-cant-crack-carrasco/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Jul 2016 01:54:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4225</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Fresh off a trip to Denver that yielded a series win, the Blue Jays returned home with hopes of putting the skids to Cleveland&#8217;s long win streak. Carlos Carrasco had other plans, extending Cleveland&#8217;s run to a franchise-record 13 victories with a truly masterful outing. Carrasco dominated the Jays all night, going seven and a third [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Fresh off a trip to Denver that yielded a series win, the Blue Jays returned home with hopes of putting the skids to Cleveland&#8217;s long win streak. Carlos Carrasco had other plans, extending Cleveland&#8217;s run to a franchise-record 13 victories with a truly masterful outing. Carrasco dominated the Jays all night, going seven and a third innings while surrendering only three hits and racking up a whopping 14 strikeouts. Every member of the starting lineup was retired by way of the K tonight in what was a dominant performance from one of Cleveland&#8217;s many talented arms.</p>
<p>For his part, R.A. Dickey pitched well enough to keep Toronto close. It looked like he could be in for a long night after giving up singles to the game&#8217;s first two batters, but Dickey managed to escape unscathed. He surrendered home runs to Rajai Davis and Jason Kipnis in the second and third, respectively. Cleveland&#8217;s other run off of Dickey scored when Jose Ramirez plated Mike Napoli after a leadoff double in the sixth. All in all, Dickey&#8217;s final line read 7.0 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K on 92 pitches. A returning Brett Cecil worked a scoreless eighth while Bo Schultz surrendered a run in the ninth, but the Jays were ultimately undone by an anemic offensive showing.</p>
<p>Toronto scored its run thanks to an absolute blast into the WestJet Flight Deck in straightaway centre field off the bat of Josh Donaldson. Beyond that, the Jays couldn&#8217;t get much cooking. Devon Travis singled in the first but was promptly erased on a double play ball. The Jays had a chance to get back into the game in the eighth following a one out double from Darwin Barney, but Cleveland reliever Bryan Shaw was able to sandwich strikeouts of Russell Martin and Devon Travis around an Ezequiel Carrera walk to end the threat.</p>
<p>Closer Cody Allen retired Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Saunders to secure the win for Cleveland. It was a night to forget for Blue Jay batters, who struggled all night long to the tune of 17 strikeouts.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s fourth inning homer was tonight&#8217;s top play of the game, accounting for .116 WPA. While the dinger served to halve Toronto&#8217;s deficit, it was as close as they would get.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play of the game belongs to Devon Travis, who struck out to end the eighth inning with two runners on. Darwin Barney doubled and Ezequiel Carrera walked to bring Travis to the plate as the go-ahead run in a 3-1 game at the time. Travis&#8217;s K was good (or bad) for a -.083 WPA.</p>
<h3>Cec and Destroy</h3>
<p>On a positive note, Brett Cecil returned from a lat strain tonight, marking his first major league action since May 14th. Before the game, John Gibbons noted that Cecil would be immediately inserted into late inning work and delivered on that promise tonight. Cecil worked a clean eighth inning, notching a strikeout to go with a groundout and pop up. Cecil&#8217;s return will give the Blue Jays a high leverage relief option they have been desperately seeking since he went down in mid-May.</p>
<h3>Travis Still Streaking</h3>
<p>After a lacklustre start to his season, second baseman Devon Travis appears to have returned to the form that excited so many during his rookie year. While he struck out in a big moment in the 8th, his first inning single extended his hit streak to seven games while he&#8217;s managed to hit safely in 16 of his last 17. Travis carried a .150 average into the team&#8217;s June 13th game against Philadelphia but leaves tonight&#8217;s affair with a .283 mark. His continued improvement is a most welcome sign and it&#8217;s likely that he&#8217;ll land in the leadoff spot before too long.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>After scoring 24 runs in three games at Coors Field, tonight was a rude awakening for Toronto&#8217;s offense. They&#8217;ll look to bounce back tomorrow when game two of the four game set kicks off at 1:07 ET. Marcus Stroman (6-4, 5.33 ERA) will look to snap out of his funk against Josh Tomlin (9-1, 3.32 ERA) on Canada Day.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 4, Blue Jays 2; Jays Streak Snapped, but it Means Nothing</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/18/recap-orioles-4-blue-jays-2-jays-streak-snapped-but-it-means-nothing/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jun 2016 23:12:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Bradburn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Zach Britton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3958</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays came into Sunday&#8217;s day game as winners of their last four straight. More intriguingly though, they also had the best outfielder in all of baseball (measured by TAv) in Michael Saunders. Technically tied with Mike Trout, Saunders currently has a .344 TAv. In the month of June, he has an isolated [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays came into Sunday&#8217;s day game as winners of their last four straight. More intriguingly though, they also had the best outfielder in all of baseball (measured by TAv) in Michael Saunders. Technically tied with Mike Trout, Saunders currently has a .344 TAv. In the month of June, he has an isolated power of .490 and he has contributed just over two wins above replacement player to the Blue Jays so far this year.</p>
<p>Standing in their way, both Yovani Gallardo and J.J. Hardy were making their return for the first-place Baltimore Orioles today. A lot of eyes were on Gallardo&#8217;s return specifically as the Orioles&#8217; pitching staff currently sits <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1932662">25th in all of baseball by DRA</a>.</p>
<p>Tasked with keeping the Orioles in first place, Gallardo worked admirably through five innings but got pulled after just 85 pitches due to body preservation following his return from injury. He allowed two runs on five hits and four walks while striking out five before turning it over to the bullpen. And, despite a shaky ninth from Zach Britton, they locked it down while the reigning AL MVP hit into a double play.</p>
<h4>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h4>
<p>In the storybook ninth&#8211;that only lacked the storybook ending&#8211;Russell Martin worked a walk against Orioles&#8217; closer Britton. Martin, who was pinch hitting, would load the bases by reaching. This came just after Darwin Barney&#8211;who was pinch hitting for Josh Thole&#8211;also worked a walk. Martin&#8217;s walk contributed 11.6 percent of the Jays&#8217; win expectancy (.116 WPA)</p>
<p>Britton was all over the place and nothing could stop the Blue Jays from winning the game. Except the bottom play&#8230;</p>
<h4>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h4>
<p>In the bottom of the ninth, the reigning AL MVP came up with the bases loaded and one out. The Orioles&#8217; closer, Britton, had looked shaky at best. This is the stuff movies are made of. Donaldson swung at the 1-1 pitch and hit it right at Jonathan Schoop, who turned two and made Britton look passably good in doing so&#8211;though he wasn&#8217;t. The double play lost the Blue Jays 27.9 percent of their win expectancy for the game (-.279 WPA).</p>
<p>The second worst play was a Blue Jays&#8217; double play as well. In the fifth inning with nobody out, the best hitter among outfielders in all of baseball grounded into a double play. In doing so, Michael Saunders lost the Blue Jays 10.7 percent of their win expectancy (-.107 WPA). Opening the inning with a walk to Encarnacion, it looked like the Blue Jays had perhaps found an opening to crack Gallardo. Alas, after the double play Justin Smoak struck out and Gallardo ended up facing the minimum in his last inning of work.</p>
<p>Seriously though, what has Saunders done for us lately? #GiveUsJayBruce</p>
<h4>Schoop started out that double play</h4>
<p>That double play in the ninth got me thinking. Instead of focusing on Donaldson&#8217;s ball in play, let&#8217;s really focus on Schoop&#8217;s play this game.</p>
<p>In the third inning with two out, Jonathan Schoop hit a solo homer against Dickey, contributing 10.5 percent of the team&#8217;s winning effort in doing so (.105 WPA). It was the Orioles&#8217; third run of the game and all they would need to win. Thanks to a nice play by Ezequiel Carrera and a TOOTBLAN from Joey Rickard, Schoop&#8217;s home run only put one run up on the board. The inning could have gone much worse for Dickey, and three runs could have easily made their way across the plate.</p>
<p>The very next inning Schoop committed an error. Comparatively, this play had almost no bearing on the outcome of the game. I just wanted to balance out Schoop doing two good things with him also doing something bad.</p>
<h4>R.A. Dickey never gets any run support ever. This is no longer a trend, it is a fact of life as certain as your eventual death.</h4>
<p>Sorry to be so morbid. It&#8217;s just that first place was on the line you guys. First place. We could have been a first place team again.</p>
<p>When Dickey is on the hill, the Blue Jays have averaged 2.93 runs scored this season. Twice they have been shutout. TWICE. The Blue Jays have been shutout four times this season. Half of them have been when Dickey was pitching.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s okay. Breathe. We&#8217;re still not halfway through the season. Just breathe. When you look into the abyss, the abyss also looks into you.</p>
<h4>Trend to Watch</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays are now 4-1 in their last five.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays are now .500 with Jose Bautista on the disabled list.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays are an enigma that cannot be wrapped into any one small sample size. Though they remain only two games back of first place. There are no facts. Only interpretations.</p>
<h4>Up Next</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays and Orioles wrap up their three-game set with a 1:35pm start time on Sunday. Marcus Stroman will take the hill for the visiting Jays. While Stroman continues to lead all of baseball in groundball rate, the young starter has run into some troubles as of late. Over his past four starts, he&#8217;s pitched 23.1 innings, allowing 19 runs&#8211;all earned&#8211;on 34 hits and eight walks while also giving up four home runs. Furthermore, 37 percent of his batted balls over that time has been rated as hard contact. He had a nice bounce back start against the Phillies his last time out, though his last start against the Orioles was a forgettable 5.1 inning effort in which he allowed four runs on eight hits and a walk earlier this month.</p>
<p>Chris Tillman has been by far the most reliable starter on the Orioles this season, and that&#8217;s not only because he&#8217;s the only <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=sta&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=2&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0">qualified candidate</a>. Tillman is posting the 24th-best strikeout rate in all of baseball at 24.2 percent. In short, he&#8217;s putting up the best numbers of his career in almost every category. That being said, those categories include his strand rate and BABIP, which seem uncharacteristically out of his career norms and could indicate some forthcoming regression.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image: Evan Habeeb &#8211; USA Today</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 7, Tigers 2; Donaldson Dominates Despondent Detroit</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/recap-blue-jays-tigers-june-8th-2016/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/recap-blue-jays-tigers-june-8th-2016/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jun 2016 20:07:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3492</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays previous two games have run the gamut on the emotional investment side of things. The opener against the Tigers was an 11-0 laugher, and the Blue Jays were out of it from basically the get go. The second game featured a dominant performance by Aaron Sanchez, but unfortunately the offense couldn&#8217;t score [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays previous two games have run the gamut on the emotional investment side of things. The opener against the Tigers was an 11-0 laugher, and the Blue Jays were out of it from basically the get go. The second game featured a dominant performance by Aaron Sanchez, but unfortunately the offense couldn&#8217;t score and the team lost 3-2 in 10 innings after leading for eight. In game three, the Blue Jays decided to avoid all those negative feelings.</p>
<p>Justin Smoak got things started with a home run. Josh Donaldson hit one as well. Josh also hit a triple, as did Kevin Pillar. R.A. Dickey was fine, allowing a lot of hard contact, but still limiting the damage to just two runs scored. It wasn&#8217;t the best game for him, but thankfully, he didn&#8217;t have to be perfect like Sanchez last night, because the offense decided to do their job.</p>
<p>John Gibbons went to the bullpen as soon as things got serious in the sixth inning, and it paid off. With a runner in scoring position and one out, Jesse Chavez came into the game and struck out two straight to end the inning. Chavez worked the seventh and continued to look good, but in the eighth came Drew Storen and his usual antics. Storen put runners on first and second with one out, but was able to escape without allowing a run. Aaron Loup and Gavin Floyd finished things off in the ninth inning to give the Blue Jays the victory.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After the Blue Jays jumped to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first inning on the strength of a Justin Smoak home run, the Tigers found themselves with a hole to climb out of early. That wouldn&#8217;t be a problem, as with Mike Aviles at first base and two out, Nick Castellanos hit a home run on a 2-2 pitch to tie the game at two. This increased the Tigers&#8217; chance of winning by 19.1 percentage points, though that obviously was not enough in the end.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Eventually, batters will stop getting greedy on first base when R.A. Dickey is on the mound. It hasn&#8217;t happened yet though, and the biggest blow to the Tigers&#8217; chances of winning this game occurred when Jose Iglesias was picked off in the second inning. There were runners on first and third with one out when Iglesias was caught leaning and Dickey fired over to Justin Smoak at first to record the out. This play had a WPA of -.082, the lowest such value in the game.</p>
<h3>Donaldson Does His Thing</h3>
<p>Despite still having a good season, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s numbers have been down across the board compared to his 2015 MVP stats. Today, though, Donaldson was fantastic, going 3-4 and finishing just a double shy of the cycle. On a team where consistent offense has been hard to come by, Donaldson has been a pleasure to watch in 2016.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Many of the Blue Jays&#8217; offensive problems in 2016 can be traced back to their inability to hit with runners in scoring position. A lot of people will credit this to bad luck, as their hits have come at times when runners were not in scoring position, whereas others will say it is a skill to hit with runners close to coming home. Regardless, the Blue Jays were a lot better in this department today, going 4 for 10, after going 0-9 in Tuesday&#8217;s game.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will try to make it two victories in a row tomorrow night against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Marcus Stroman (5-2, 4.82) will be facing Tyler Wilson (2-5, 4.39) with a 7:07 PM eastern first pitch.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Red Sox 2; A Couple Homers Lead the Jays to Victory</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/03/recap-blue-jays-5-red-sox-2-a-couple-homers-lead-the-jays-to-victory/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jun 2016 03:13:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Recently, there&#8217;s been a lot of Blue Jays wins. It seems that those wins have also coincided with quite a bit of excitement. Whether it&#8217;s been late game hitting heroics, or a superb starting pitcher performance, every game has had something. This win saw homers from Edwin Encarnacion and Devon Travis, but little else of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently, there&#8217;s been a lot of Blue Jays wins. It seems that those wins have also coincided with quite a bit of excitement. Whether it&#8217;s been late game hitting heroics, or a superb starting pitcher performance, every game has had something. This win saw homers from Edwin Encarnacion and Devon Travis, but little else of much excitement. Nevertheless, it&#8217;s certainly nice to win. With this win, Toronto&#8217;s team has now won 8 of their last 9 games, and 11 of their last 14. As well, 8 of those last 11 wins have come against AL East teams. As such, the Jays now find themselves 2.5 games back of the top of the division.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Surprise, surprise: tonight&#8217;s top play of the game came on Edwin Encarnacion&#8217;s first inning homer off of David Price. Donaldson was on base for the homer (as he tends to be), allowing the Jays to reclaim the lead from the Red Sox after they&#8217;d scored one in the first. After a few more insurance runs, the Jays went on to hold that lead for the rest of the game.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tonight&#8217;s bottom play of the game came in the sixth inning, when Red Sox 3B Travis Shaw grounded out to R.A. Dickey. At the time, David Ortiz was at third base and a Hanley Ramirez fly out represented the only out of the inning. All Shaw needed to do was get the ball out of the infield, but alas, he could not.</p>
<h3>Dickey&#8217;s Boston Troubles</h3>
<p>Despite allowing five walks in comparison to four strikeouts, R.A. Dickey squeaked out a win today. It was actually his first of the season against the Red Sox. Thus far, he&#8217;s had some mixed success against the team. In each of his last three starts against Boston, Dickey has had more walks than strikeouts. Then, in the one start in which he had more strikeouts than walks, he gave up seven runs on eight hits. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯</p>
<h3>Edwin&#8217;s Improvements</h3>
<p>With his homer today, Edwin Encarnacion now has hits in his last six games. In addition to today&#8217;s performance, among them is another homer, and three doubles. Edwin didn&#8217;t exactly have the greatest start to the season, putting up a sub .700 OPS in the month of April. Much of the issue had to do with his paltry 6.7 BB% and 25.8 K%. In the month of May, he improved to the tune of a 10.1 BB% and 20.2 K%. Of course, that&#8217;s still a ways away from his superb patience in 2015. It&#8217;s even further away from the days in which he had a higher walk rate than strikeout rate, and was one of only a handful of players to have accomplished that. On the plus side, he&#8217;s gotten better recently, but it&#8217;s not the Edwin Encarnacion that we&#8217;re used to.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays have two more games to come against Boston in this series. With Stroman on the mound in the next game and Estrada the game after, both are entirely winnable. If the Jays can muster wins in the two contests, they&#8217;ll likely find themselves 0.5 games out of first place in the east. That&#8217;s a position that they haven&#8217;t found themselves in since the first week of the season. &#8220;The Resurgent Jays&#8221; kind of has a nice ring to it, don&#8217;t you think?</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: &#8220;It&#8217;s Early&#8221; Works Both Ways</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/29/this-week-in-blue-jays-its-early-works-both-ways/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/29/this-week-in-blue-jays-its-early-works-both-ways/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 May 2016 11:44:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Twins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3176</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Regardless of whether or not you subscribe to the “it’s early” mantra that so many hopeful fans evoke when their team begins a season below expectations, there is likely little dissent amongst Blue Jays fans that the first fifty games have, as a whole, been both disappointing and frustrating.  With memories of bat flips all [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regardless of whether or not you subscribe to the “it’s early” mantra that so many hopeful fans evoke when their team begins a season below expectations, there is likely little dissent amongst Blue Jays fans that the first fifty games have, as a whole, been both disappointing and frustrating.  With memories of bat flips all but faded and an objectively much deeper team to start this season compared to last, the Jays – last season’s best offense in baseball by a longshot – began the season with an 11-14 (.440) record in April and have hovered all season around the .500 mark due to an anemic offense and unreliable bullpen, prompting media hits and call-in shows to discuss how the Jays might proceed should they be out of the race a month from now, most of which centres around trading pending free agents Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista for prospects with an eye towards rebuilding. Such was the conversation just two weeks ago after the Jays had lost five straight.</p>
<p>What a difference a few weeks makes.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays returned home Friday after a very successful 5-2 road trip that included taking two of three from the Yankees in New York – a feat that has proved difficult in the past. They are in the midst of a twelve-game stretch against division rivals that may set the table with respect to the decisions that are made in the near future. With their win against the division-leading Boston Red Sox on Friday night – their fiftieth game of the season – the Jays once again found themselves at the .500 mark and had landed in third place, five games back of the Sox. For their part, the Red Sox have begun their 2016 campaign with a 29-20 record and will finish their first fifty games with a winning percentage close to, if not at, .600.</p>
<p>The beautiful thing about the fiftieth game mark of a baseball season is that it is simultaneously early and not early. The latter refers to the fact that 50 games is enough of a sample size to begin evaluating and addressing a team’s needs, likely not via trade, but through other changes such as line-up shake-ups and Triple-A call-ups. The former, however, is the reason why a team such as the Blue Jays and its fans still have so much to look forward to: with two-thirds of the season remaining, literally anything can happen. The fate of the season rests not only with how the Jays respond the rest of their season (they are currently riding a four-game win streak and have won seven of their last ten), but also how other teams fare.</p>
<p>This very issue was <a href="https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/lights-out-what-a-hot-start-does-and-doesnt-mean-in-baseball/?utm_source=vicesportstwitter" target="_blank">addressed by Steven Goldman in Vice Sports </a>this past week when he wrote that “even in May, and even for teams that race out to hot starts, it is indeed later than it seems. Every club comes down to earth in some fashion, even ones playing at a historic pace.” While many teams appear destined for the post-season in May, a hot start can quickly turn cold despite the summer weather. The 2002 Red Sox began their season at a scorching hot .700 win percentage, going 35-15 through May only to play 58-54 the remainder of the season, finishing second to the Yankees who posted a .626 win percentage over the same period.</p>
<p>The Minnesota Twins went 34-16 to begin their 2001 season, yet were surpassed by the Cleveland Indians after winning just 51 of their remaining 110 games. Some of this downfall can be attributed to what Goldman refers to as “standard baseball entropy”, such as the injuries that inevitably accumulate over the course of a season, or a key player on a tear eventually coming back down to earth. In other cases, teams simply fall apart because their early success blinds them with respect to their inherent weaknesses that inevitably go unaddressed and ultimately lead to the team’s demise.</p>
<p>We have already begun to see the toll that a baseball season can take on a team. The reigning World Series champions have lost third baseman Mike Moustakas for the season with a torn ACL, while the Baltimore Orioles, who led the AL East until recently, were swept by the Houston Astros in historic fashion, racking up more strike outs in a three-game series than any other team in history. Then, of course, there are the Red Sox, who have an elite offense but less-than-reliable pitching despite having added David Price to their rotation, which has the ninth highest ERA (4.70) in the league. The past two games have demonstrated that, although they may score a ton of runs, they are vulnerable to poor pitching performances and defensive miscues.</p>
<p>The flip side of the coin is that teams with lackluster starts can, assuming they have the necessary talent, at any point make a run for it. The 2003 Florida Marlins began the season 40-41 and were 12 games back of the Atlanta Braves before going on a 51-30 tear to claim the National League wild card spot and, ultimately, went on to win the World Series.  The 2010 Atlanta Braves stumbled out of the gate with a 9-14 April record only to finish the season 91-71, good enough for the NL wild card. And while this and other similar feats stand out as an anomalies, they serve as a reminder that there is more than enough baseball left to play for the Jays to get right back in it.</p>
<p>While playoff odds mean next to nothing at this point, the Jays have the second-highest <a href="https://baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">percent chance of making the playoffs </a>according to Baseball Prospectus (39.7% &#8211; up 11.3% over a week ago) with an expected win percentage of .517, which means they need to go 58-51 the remainder of the season. Given the strength of their lineup that has finally begun to show signs of life, the exceptional pitching of their starting rotation (who have pitched more innings than any rotation in baseball and have the fifth lowest ERA), and the fact that Roberto Osuna is one of the best closers in baseball (he&#8217;s top 10 in WAR amongst relievers), there is no compelling reason why the Jays can&#8217;t play .532 ball the rest of the way.</p>
<p>For their part, the Jays are committed to their brand of unabashed baseball. In his piece for USA Today Sports, Bob Nightengale declared the <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/05/25/blue-jays-unwritten-rules-jose-bautista-josh-donaldson/84918500/" target="_blank">Blue Jays the “bad boys of baseball</a> – loud, emotional, passionate and really not giving a damn what you think of them.” While R.A. Dickey notes that &#8220;the only problem with passion is that it can work the other way, too&#8221; when a struggling team becomes too hard on itself, for this particular team, it is a part of their identity. Marcus Stroman says that the team has &#8220;kind of embodied the whole Toronto mantra, that it&#8217;s Toronto against the world in all sports&#8230;.We&#8217;re not scared. We&#8217;re not worried. We know what we&#8217;re capable of. We&#8217;re just going to keep being ourselves. Hopefully the tide will turn shortly for us.&#8221;</p>
<p>It&#8217;s only been two weeks, but the tide is showing signs of turning. And, if there is any team that knows what it means come from behind in the standings to make the playoffs, it&#8217;s this team.</p>
<p>Quick Hits:</p>
<ul>
<li>About an hour prior to the Jays’ matinee against the Red Sox on Saturday it was announced that short-stop Troy Tulowitzki had been <a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/180714820/blue-jays-shortstop-troy-tulowitzki-on-dl" target="_blank">placed on the 15-day disabled list</a> with a right quadriceps strain. The injury was suffered Tuesday while stealing second base against the Yankees and subsequently missed the next two games. He was back in the lineup Friday night (a game in which he went 0-4 at the plate with an error in the field) but tweaked the quad and underwent an MRI Saturday morning, revealing a low-grade strain. His spot on the roster was filled with the return of reliever Aaron Loup, who will provide John Gibbons with a much-needed lefty option out of the bullpen.</li>
<li>Major League Baseball heard Jose Bautista’s appeal of his one-game suspension on Thursday and announced Friday that they were <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-good-reason-feel-hard-done-bautista-decision/" target="_blank">upholding their decision</a>. One wonders what exactly it was that he was suspended for &#8211; his hard slide into second is governed by its own rule, and regardless of what his intent may have been, he was not the one who threw a punch.</li>
<li>And, finally. After watching Devon Travis walk-off the Boston Red Sox in the Jays’ epic 10-9 victory on Saturday, it’s difficult to believe that at one point during his recovery from shoulder surgery he seriously <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/travis-wondered-if-his-career-was-over-1.497318" target="_blank">wondered if he would ever be able to swing the bat again</a>. Travis was <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/05/25/troy-tulowitzkis-minor-injury-hurries-devon-travis-return-to-blue-jays" target="_blank">called up </a>from his rehab stint in Buffalo a week ahead of schedule due to Tulo&#8217;s quad injury, and since his return,  the Jays have won four straight. Perhaps he&#8217;s the spark that was needed to ignite this offense. If true, look out.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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