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		<title>BP Toronto&#8217;s Bold Predictions for 2016</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/30/bp-toronto-bold-predictions/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Mar 2016 16:09:58 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s that time again! A time of year when all of us here at BP Toronto dust off our crystal balls and attempt to predict the future of the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays. We have a full roster of contributors this year, so you will get your fill of prognostication. Andrew Arnold, Chris Sherwin, Dave Church, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s that time again! A time of year when all of us here at BP Toronto dust off our crystal balls and attempt to predict the future of the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays. We have a full roster of contributors this year, so you will get your fill of prognostication. Andrew Arnold, Chris Sherwin, Dave Church, Eric Mercer, Gideon Turk, Greg Wisniewski, Jenn Smith, Joshua Howsam, Kyle Matte, Matt Gwin, Michael Bradburn, Nick Dika, Steven McEwen, and Tammy Rainey have all decided to put their reputations on the line this year.</p>
<p>Below you will see each person&#8217;s picks and thoughts in eight different categories. The pick will be in bold and the accompanying thoughts are italicized. Have any qualms? questions? comments? Be sure to let us know what you think of our picks in the comments below.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Record in 2016</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>90-72</strong> &#8211; <em>They stay the healthiest, and finish as the only playoff team in the East.</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>91-71</strong> -<em> Back-to-back division champs!</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>89-73</strong> &#8211; <em>The Jays should be in the hunt, but won&#8217;t get way ahead with Boston and Tampa looming.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>95-67</strong> &#8211; <em>Jays win the division by a wide margin over the lackluster Sox.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>93-70 </strong>- <em>Game 163 is going to be nice.</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>89-73</strong> -<em> Winning 90 was clearly an aberration. History doesn&#8217;t lie.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>95-67</strong> &#8211; <em>The Jays will defend their title as AL East Champions.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>89-73</strong> – <em>Jays win a tight division by two games.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>92-70</strong> &#8211; <em>Narrowly repeat as AL East champs in a hyper-competitive division.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>88-74</strong> &#8211; <em>This 2016 team is better than where they started last season, but worse than where they finished.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>91-71</strong> &#8211; <em>First in the AL East ahead of the 88-win Boston Red Sox.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>85-77</strong> &#8211;  <em>With the tooled up Red Sox and no easy wins in the division, it&#8217;ll be a struggle.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>92-70</strong> &#8211; <em>Every team in the AL East has holes, the Jays will just find a way past theirs.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>100-62</strong> &#8211; <em>Simply put, I don&#8217;t think any other AL team is even close to being as good as the Jays.<br />
</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Best Position Player</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>What?  You were expecting someone else?</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>He may not repeat his MVP season, but he&#8217;ll be in the mix come award time.</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>Reigning MVP in his prime. Let&#8217;s not overthink it.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>Back-to-back MVP&#8217;s. Sorry Mike Trout.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>There&#8217;s no other option for this answer.</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>I&#8217;d like to be clever here,  but he&#8217;s coming off 3 MVP calibre seasons in a row.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>You just can&#8217;t stop the rain &#8211; or the reigning MVP.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> – <em>The Jays will have an MVP candidate on the left-side again, but this year it’ll be at SS.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>Anyone but the MVP is just someone trying to be cute.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>It&#8217;ll be hard to beat the reigning MVP/viking extraordinaire.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>I was trying really hard not to pick him, but&#8230;</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>We are reminded good Tulo really is. Only thing he hurts this year is Boston’s playoff chances.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em> Can you think of it being anyone else honestly?</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;s going to stay healthy and dominate.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Best Pitcher</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Marcus Stroman</strong> &#8211; <em>I picked Hutchison last year, so you know you can trust me on opening day starters.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Chris &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Stroman will continue to silence the doubters and put up a 200 inning, 3.00 ERA season.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Dave &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">The best pitcher on the team by a mile. At this point, it&#8217;s difficult to doubt his drive or his talent.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Eric &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Aaron Sanchez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Will blow expectations out of the water; his command will be sharp all season.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Gideon &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Strotember was fun, but Strapril, Stray, Strune, Struly, and Strogust are going to be even better.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Greg &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">He has 80 grade #want.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Jenn -</span><strong style="line-height: 1.5"> Aaron Sanchez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">His new-found command looks legit &#8211; and we couldn&#8217;t all pick Stroman.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Joshua &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Aaron Sanchez </strong><span style="line-height: 1.5">- </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Conventional wisdom says Stroman, but I’m all in on Aaron.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Kyle &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">200+ innings and a few Cy Young votes to boot.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Matt &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">J.A. Happ</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">When he was at his best last season, Happ was better than any Jays pitcher we&#8217;ve seen in a long time.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Michael &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroma</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5">n &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I&#8217;d love to pick anyone else, but uh&#8230;<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Nick &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Roberto Osuna</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">This year the 21 year old makes us even more frustrated that he doesn&#8217;t want to be a starter.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Steven &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Aaron Sanchez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Sanchez can gain A.J. Burnett&#8217;s control, and Sanchez&#8217;s pure stuff might be even better.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Tammy &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Sanchez will challenge for this claim, but I can&#8217;t go against Marcus.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Breakout Player of the Year</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Justin Smoak</strong> &#8211; <em>Will finally fulfill his promise and become a solid, pun-worthy, starting first baseman</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;ll put up a solid No. 3 starter performance before being moved to the pen. Sound familiar?</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>Aaron Sanchez &#8211; </strong><em>After a fantastic spring, and by moving into a larger role this season, Sanchez makes the leap.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>He will produce career highs in homers (&gt;20) and hits (&gt;125) while playing more than 120 games.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>Kevin Pillar</strong> &#8211; <em>Hard to breakout even more, but the bat is going to take a huge step forward with his new mechanics.</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>Dalton Pompey</strong> &#8211; <em>When Kevin Pillar can&#8217;t duplicate 2015 at the plate, Pompey is ready and willing.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>Pat Venditte</strong> &#8211; <em>He pitched well enough this spring to suggest he&#8217;s more than just a one-trick pony.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>Edwin Encarnacion</strong> &#8211; <em>He’ll hit a ball so hard that it “breaks” the “out” sign on the digital scoreboard.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;s a competent changeup away from being terrifying.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>Dalton Pompey</strong> &#8211; <em>He may not get the chance to prove it, but he&#8217;s still got the on-base and defensive chops.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>Kevin Pillar</strong> -<em> Last year was probably his breakout, but imagine a leadoff man with an OBP of .330 and 30+ steals.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>The Other Sanchez</strong> &#8211; <em>Tony Sanchez is a revelation as the backup C – a guy who won’t kill you on offense or defense. </em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>Ryan Goins</strong> &#8211; <em>Goins has a fantastic swing and has some decent power in his bat; improved approach will lead to results.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;s good when he can play, and he&#8217;s going to actually stay healthy for a full season.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Comeback Player of the Year</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Aaron Loup</strong> &#8211; <em>Pitched much better than his surface stats suggested; should return to form.</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Saunders will stay healthy for the first time ever.</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Saunders is the pick here mostly by default. Hard to go anywhere but up after last year.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>Is this cheating? Wasn&#8217;t great as a Jay, but new leg kick will do wonders for his offense.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>Devon Travis</strong> &#8211; <em>Maybe not &#8216;of the year,&#8217; but definitely for the months of June through September!</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>I could go with a certain pitcher, but two Canadian Blue Jay All-Stars would be pretty cool.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>After appearing in just nine games last season, Saunders will provide both power and solid defense.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>Gavin Floyd</strong> &#8211; <em>Pitching out of the pen, Floyd will miraculously stay healthy for a full year and flourish.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>Tulo&#8217;s going to push Donaldson for the title of &#8220;Best Jay,&#8221; and it&#8217;s going to be spectacular.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>Aaron Loup</strong> -<em> If he ever gets back from his injury, he&#8217;ll be the superstar lefty relieverthat we remember.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>Drew Hutchison</strong> -<em> I can&#8217;t quit you.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>Drew Hutchison</strong> &#8211; <em>&#8220;Don&#8217;t Call It a Comeback!&#8221; Hutch provides slightly above league-average production on the cheap.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Kid Canuck will roar back with a passion, combining the power and speed fans expected last year.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Kinda have to go with this one, right? I don&#8217;t count Stroman since he came back last year.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Biggest Bust</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Ace</strong> &#8211; <em>Now a 15 year veteran, this once elite mascot is sure to see some decline in his production.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Chris &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Pillar is not the four win player he was in  2015; expect defensive regression.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Dave &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Weighty expectations on defense and the leadoff spot on offense will  proved to be too much.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Eric &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Expectations are high and I don&#8217;t think his bat will play at the top of the order. Defense will regress.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Gideon &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Troy Tulowitzki</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Injuries are the worst.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Greg &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Drew Storen</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Relievers, man, you never know.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Jenn &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Defensively, he&#8217;ll be stellar. As a leadoff hitter&#8230;.not so much.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Joshua -</span><strong style="line-height: 1.5"> Jesse Chavez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> – </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">By midseason, Chavez will become a pure long man, long since passed on by Floyd/Biagini.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Kyle &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Chris Colabello</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">ColaBABIP has to end at some point, right?<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Matt &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; H</span><em style="line-height: 1.5">e thrived on low expectations; now the expectations are high and it&#8217;ll be hard to repeat.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Michael &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marco Estrada</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Even if he did make adjustments, can those adjustments really continue working so effectively?<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Nick &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">R.A. Dickey</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Even knuckleballers can’t pitch forever. Dickey is getting to an age where guys start to decline/get hurt.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Steven &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I&#8217;m not predicting a 6.00 ERA, but I&#8217;m sure many would consider a 3.60 ERA or so disappointing.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Tammy &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Ryan Goins</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I&#8217;ll pick Goins just on the basis that expectations in some quarters being too high.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Key to 2016 Success</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Depth</strong> &#8211; <em>This is team has a legitimate back-up at every position, and plenty of rotation options.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Chris &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Depth</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I loved the focus on adding to the pitching staff. No more AAA lifers making spot starts.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Dave &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Starting Pitching</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">The Jays will score all the runs; they just need to prevent them as well.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Eric &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Starter Health</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">If the Jays have decent arms who can soak up innings, the offense will take care of the rest.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Gideon &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Depth</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">As long as the Scott Copelands of the world don&#8217;t make any starts for this team, they should be fine.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Greg &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">All the Runs</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">More opposing pitcher abuse plus some average Jays pitching will mean a rise to the top of a tight division.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Jenn &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Starting Rotation</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">As long as the rotation doesn&#8217;t implode and overtax the pen, this lineup ought to bludgeon opponents.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Joshua &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marco Estrada</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> – </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">If he pitches like a #2-3 starter again instead of a #4-5, the Jays will be in great shape.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Kyle &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Command</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Toronto had the</em><span style="line-height: 1.5"> </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">3rd lowest walk rate in 2015; this pitching staff needs to try and replicate that.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Matt &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Troy Tulowitzki</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">If he&#8217;s healthy and good, he&#8217;s a 7 WARP player. If he&#8217;s not, oh boy.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Michael &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Depth</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">A healthy, 200 innings from Stroman is a lot to count on. The depth Atkins acquired will be tested.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Nick &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Depth and Taxes</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Hopefully spreading our worthless dollars around on several free agents was the right thing to do.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Steven &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Defense</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">The Blue Jays are going to have a weak contact-heavy rotation, which means many balls in play.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Tammy &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">The Rotation</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">There are questions in the pen, but it&#8217;s the starters who will determine how far this team goes.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>One Bold Prediction</h2>
<p>Andrew- <em>Yale-educated Craig Breslow tells Stroman that the size of one&#8217;s heart is in fact proportional to one&#8217;s height. Benches clear.</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <em>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s hair will become the 2016 version of  &#8216;The Rachel.&#8217;</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <em>Aaron Sanchez will lead the team in wins (until September).</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <em>Buck Martinez miraculously pronounces everyone&#8217;s names correctly. Pat Tabler stops describing players as &#8216;strong.&#8217;</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <em>Does Gavin Floyd winning the Cy Young Award count?</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <em>Devon Travis returns in mid May and hits .400 for the rest of the season, falling just short of qualifying for the batting title.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <em>Aaron Sanchez will start in the postseason.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <em>In an effort to keep hitters guessing, Pat Venditte will become the first pitcher ever to throw with both hands at the same time.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <em>Troy Tulowitzki belts more dingers than Edwin Encarnacion.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <em>Ryan Goins out-performs Andrelton Simmons by WARP.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <em>Inspired by Venditte, Jose Bautista decides to switch hit this season. The resulting success leads him to ask for $35M/season.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <em>Jesus Montero harnesses his namesake and outhits everyone else on the team.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <em>Josh Thole will have real value just by letting Martin avoid the knuckleball.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <em>John Gibbons becomes the most beloved manager in baseball as the league gets a load of his personality.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>There you have it. The BP Toronto Bold Predictions for 2016. Everything on this page will happen, even the stuff that contradicts the other stuff. We&#8217;re just that good.</p>
<p>Enjoy the 2016 season, Blue Jays fans</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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