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	<title>Toronto &#187; playoffs</title>
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		<title>ALCS Game 3 Recap: Cleveland 4, Blue Jays 2; Toronto Bleeds Out Slowly</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/17/alcs-game-3-recap-cleveland-4-blue-jays-2-toronto-bleeds-out-slowly/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Oct 2016 03:49:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7523</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Injury chased their starter early, but Cleveland&#8217;s bullpen continued to have an answer for every Jays threat. Toronto would never take the lead, falling 4-2 in the game and are now down 3-0 in the series. Cleveland drew first blood on a Mike Napoli double, but Toronto lashed back in the bottom of the 1st. After [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Injury chased their starter early, but Cleveland&#8217;s bullpen continued to have an answer for every Jays threat. Toronto would never take the lead, falling 4-2 in the game and are now down 3-0 in the series.</p>
<p>Cleveland drew first blood on a Mike Napoli double, but Toronto lashed back in the bottom of the 1st. After throwing just 19 pitches, the blood gushing from the drone-inflicted wound on Trevor Bauer&#8217;s pinky became to much to ignore. Two pats on the cheek from Terry Francona and Bauer&#8217;s night was done.</p>
<p>If Cleveland goes on to lose this series, they&#8217;ll be calling it The Curse of the Dronebino.</p>
<p>Dan Otero warmed up in a hurry, and quickly served up a homer to Michael Saunders to knot that game at 1-1 in the 2nd. It looked like things would start to snowball out of control for Cleveland; you can&#8217;t throw Andrew Miller out there in the 3rd and the Jays would feast on the no-name back end of the bullpen. That&#8217;s how it played out in my head.</p>
<p>Instead, the Jays were shut down by guys named Jeff Manship and Zack McAllister, and Napoli crushed the first pitch he saw in the 4th into the stands to put Cleveland back on top. With Cleveland comfortably leading in the 7th, the air went out of the Rogers Centre as fans waited for Andrew Miller to jog in.</p>
<p>But instead in came Bryan Shaw, and then Cody Allen, and with a rally brewing in the bottom of the 7th Miller remained seated. Shades of Zach Britton. Donaldson stepped up to the plate with men on second and first and hit the first pitch from Allen right on the money, which in the 2016 ALCS means right into Coco Crisp&#8217;s glove.</p>
<p>Andrew Miller finally came in with two outs in the 8th, and did what he does. It took seven pitchers &#8211; and 149 pitches<strong> </strong>- to win the game for Cleveland. A lot of the credit&#8217;s going to go to Francona for &#8220;pulling this one out of a hat&#8221; after Bauer&#8217;s pinky busted open in the 1st, and that&#8217;s deserved. He&#8217;s consistently gotten the matchups he wants, and he&#8217;s been aggressive on the basepaths and with defensive positioning.</p>
<p>Make no mistake, though, this game wasn&#8217;t won by Cleveland, it was lost by the Jays&#8217; bats.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Jason Kipnis&#8217; go-ahead homer in the 5th was worth +0.163 WPA. According to Statcast, the dinger was clocked at 107.3 MPH &#8211; the fastest ball of Kipnis&#8217; bat all season.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Pillar&#8217;s strikeout in the 9th lowered the Jays chances of winning by 7.7%, but we won&#8217;t hold it against him.</p>
<h3>Cleveland runs wild again</h3>
<p>We knew it would be bad, but not this bad. After Rajai Davis burned up the basepaths to score the game-winning run in Game 2, Coco Crisp got things rolling early against Stroman in the 2nd. He stole second without a throw, and then pressured a wild pitch that allowed him to get to third base.</p>
<p>I understand that the Jays rotation isn&#8217;t going to give up the count to a batter in order to focus on controlling the running game, but they could at least feign interest. Crisp took the kind of lead you take when you know the pitcher isn&#8217;t paying attention, but if Stroman had glanced over he would&#8217;ve had him picked off easily. Even Mike Napoli got in on the action, taking advantage of a pitch in the dirt to swipe a bag.</p>
<h3>The Ever Changing Strike Zone</h3>
<p>The strike zone was once again a point of contention early on, as Brian Gorman was all over the place. The problem wasn&#8217;t so much accuracy, but consistency. One moment he would be calling the inside fastball a strike, next moment it would be a ball. Seemed to go both ways, though, but a called strike against Michael Saunders stands out on the left of this graphic.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7542 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/chart-300x300.png" alt="chart" width="300" height="300" /></a></p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>In an in-game interview right after Bauer was forced to leave the game, Francona said Kluber would be starting Game 4. It&#8217;ll be short rest, but who better to hand the ball to in an elimination game than last year&#8217;s Cy Young winner? (I mean, yes, Andrew Miller would be better.) Aaron Sanchez will toe the hill for the Jays at 4 p.m. EST.</p>
<p><strong> Lead Photo Credit</strong>- <em>Nick Turchiaro </em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Blue Jays vs. Rangers: ALDS Game One Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/06/blue-jays-vs-rangers-alds-game-one-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Oct 2016 13:21:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7265</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers Thursday October 6th, 2016 Written by Mike Passador and Joshua Howsam Buck Showalter strode off the mound fresh off a conference with Ubaldo Jimenez. Perhaps he told the lanky right hander to take his chances with Edwin Encarnacion rather than issue a free pass and face Jose Bautista with [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Thursday October 6th, 2016</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="https://twitter.com/Mike_Pandador" target="_blank">Mike Passador</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam</a></em></p>
<p>Buck Showalter strode off the mound fresh off a conference with Ubaldo Jimenez. Perhaps he told the lanky right hander to take his chances with Edwin Encarnacion rather than issue a free pass and face Jose Bautista with the bases loaded. Perhaps he told Jimenez to serve up a middle-middle fastball so they could sleep in their own beds tomorrow. Whatever was said, Encarnacion planted the pitch in the second deck and himself in Blue Jays lore with a mammoth blast.</p>
<p>Those heroics bring us here.</p>
<p>Here, of course, is Arlington, the spot where so many (fans and impartial viewers alike) hoped the path would lead. Buckle up.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays toyed with disaster in the season&#8217;s final weeks but found a way to get it done. The same symptoms of distress persisted in the wild card game, namely the team&#8217;s continued ineptitude with runners on base. Aside from a clutch single from Ezequiel Carrera, all of Toronto&#8217;s runs came on longballs. Three double plays certainly didn&#8217;t help the cause, but the Jays found a way to get it done yet again and dispatched the rival Orioles in extras.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays will face the Texas Rangers in the ALDS for the second consecutive season and will be looking for similar results. In a bit of role reversal from last season, it&#8217;s the powerful Rangers who earned the AL&#8217;s top seed and enter the series as favorites. The Blue Jays went 4-3 in their seven games against Texas this season (though just 1-2 on the road) after eliminating the Rangers in a drama-filled Game 5 in last year&#8217;s postseason. Punctuated with Jose Bautista&#8217;s bat flip for the ages, the aggrieved Rangers would try to exact some revenge in the seventh and final game of the regular season set and things got physical.</p>
<p>With two good teams who don&#8217;t like each other much and two good pitchers on the mound, expect a close, fiery game to kick off the ALDS.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchup:</h3>
<h4>Thursday, October 6th – 4:38 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.48 ERA, 4.40 DRA) @ Cole Hamels (15-5, 3.32 ERA, 2.65 DRA)</strong></p>
<p>Many assumed that this would be J.A. Happ&#8217;s start, allowing Sanchez to go in game two and thus be available for a game five, but the Jays have turned to last year&#8217;s postseason standout, Marco Estrada. The changeup specialist had a strange season, as he continued 2015&#8217;s dominance well into August, then suddenly went through a spell where he gave up 25 runs (24 earned) in 28 innings across six starts. That rough patch caused a lot of concern, as it was accompanied not just by a dip in velocity, but also a drop in the league-high &#8220;rise&#8221; on his fourseam fastball (see chart below). The common viewpoint was that his ailing back was finally starting to affect his on-field performance&#8230;when all of a sudden he turned right back into the pitcher from the first half. In his final three starts of the season, Estrada allowed just two runs on nine hits in 19 innings, striking out 19. Part of the turnaround was simply due to increased command and velocity, but he also began throwing fewer cutters. This seems like a good plan, as batters are slugging .535 on the pitch. If he continues to throw the ball as he has recently, the Rangers will be in some of trouble.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-15.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7273" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-15.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (15)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>The Blue Jays managed to miss Hamels both times they played Texas, meaning the last time any of their hitters has seen the Rangers ace was in last year&#8217;s ALDS. Just in case they haven&#8217;t been paying attention, he&#8217;s still very, very good. Though he scuffled a bit down the stretch (6.75 ERA in his last six starts), Hamels was easily the Rangers&#8217; best starter on the season. He topped 200 innings pitched and 190 strikeouts (he finished with 200) for the seventh straight year. Like Estrada, Hamels relies on a plus changeup, especially when facing right-handed hitters as exist on the Blue Jays, but this year he has also heavily increased his use of the cutter. In fact, he now throws it almost as much as his fourseam fastball (see chart below). The heavily varied pitch mix will be an adjustment for the Blue Jays, who seem to have trouble with pitchers who rely on multiple offerings. They&#8217;ll have to force Hamels to get the ball up, or it could be another low-scoring output from Toronto&#8217;s offence.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-16.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7274" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-16.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (16)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Bullpen Pecking Order<br />
</strong></p>
<p>The much-maligned Toronto bullpen deserves full marks for their work in the wild card game. Brett Cecil, Joe Biagini, Jason Grilli, Roberto Osuna and Francisco Liriano combined for five shutout innings and bought the offense enough time to push the team through to the next round of postseason play. It would seem as though those are the pitchers in John Gibbons&#8217; circle of trust at the moment and they&#8217;ll be the ones counted on for the remainder of October.</p>
<p>The mighty Rangers present some more difficult matchups thanks to a fairly even left/right split throughout the entire lineup. It makes the matchup game a puzzling one for Gibbons and might necessitate some uncomfortable at bats. To wit, Brett Cecil was pulled in the 7th inning after walking Chris Davis. Right-handed Joe Biagini was brought in to take on righty Jonathan Schoop (who actually fares better against righties) and left handed Michael Bourn. Gibbons played the (traditional) matchups and it all worked out, but it might not be so easy against the Rangers.</p>
<p>The Jays probably won&#8217;t have the same luxuries against Texas, whose Odor-Lucroy-Choo-Moreland run seems like Cecil&#8217;s territory. That looks like the safest bet but will also require a tough at bat against the right-handed Lucroy. Could they turn to a righty to take on Lucroy and then work through the next two batters? Or will they let Cecil sink or swim? The context of the game will help make the decision but there will be some major risk-reward moves made deep in games.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to see how Gibbons navigates the late innings with his limited slate of trustworthy relievers.</p>
<p><strong>The Running Game</strong></p>
<p>With the deadline addition of Carlos Gomez, the Rangers now feature four players with double digit steals (Elvis Andrus, Ian Desmond, Rougned Odor, and Gomez), not to mention part time speedster Delino DeSchields Jr. After catching a league-leading 43.8 percent of basestealers in 2015, following back-to-back years of 38.4 percent rates, Russell Martin&#8217;s caught-stealing rate plummeted to a league-worst 16.4 percent among catchers who caught at least 85 games. When combined with Estrada on the mound &#8211; he allowed the 10th most stolen bases in the AL (12) &#8211; look for the Rangers to attempt to take a few extra bags in this game.</p>
<p><strong>Power Displays</strong></p>
<p>The Rangers lineup currently boasts seven players who have hit 20 or more home runs this season, including two players who topped 30 (Odor and Beltre) and that&#8217;s not counting Carlos Gomez. Gomez has been on an absolute tear since being acquired from the Houston Astros, hitting .284/.362/.543 in a Rangers uniform with eight home runs in just 33 games. He is definitely showing the form that made him a two-time All-Star with the Brewers.</p>
<p>On the flip side, the Jays have a number of mashers of their own. Edwin Encarnacion led the way with 42 long balls (plus one notable postseason home run), with Josh Donaldson not far behind him at 37. In addition to those two top of the order mashers, five other players hit 20 or more bombs, two of whom hit 24 (Michael Saunders and Troy Tulowitzki).</p>
<p>Ameriquest Rangers Globe Life Ballpark in Arlington (close approximation) isn&#8217;t quite the home run park it is known for, but with Estrada and Hamels on the mound (neither of whom is particularly home run stingy), don&#8217;t be surprised if a few balls find their way to the seats in this game. You might see a bat or two flipped as well.</p>
<p><strong>Bad Blood<br />
</strong></p>
<p>When you think about it, Hero and Villain are relative terms.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista enters this series with a bullseye on his back from just about every angle after his franchise-shaping dinger and the immortalized bat flip that followed led into a mid-may dustup between the two squads. For those who need a refresher, the man they call Joey Bats authored a signature moment by crushing a Sam Dyson pitch deep to left for a three run home run that recaptured the lead in a crazy seventh inning in the deciding game of last year&#8217;s ALDS. The Jays and Rangers played six games without incident this season, only for the aggrieved Rangers to take out their frustrations in the final regular season meeting between the clubs. In what was presumably Bautista&#8217;s final at bat of the game, he was plunked by rookie Matt Bush. He slid hard into second and angered Rougned Odor, who promptly landed a hard right hook on Bautista&#8217;s jaw. A real brawl followed, as did a continued war of words.</p>
<p>This is one of the matchups that the baseball world seemed to be clamoring for. If X represents the number of times we&#8217;ll see the bat flip in the next week, X+1 might be the number of times we see Odor&#8217;s punch. Tensions will be running high on both sides and the conversation is already dominating coverage of this series. Sam Dyson <a href="https://twitter.com/bruce_arthur/status/783749495930490880" target="_blank">chose not to talk about it</a> while Bautista <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/783827041548316672" target="_blank">offered a lengthy response</a> to being disliked. The best quote on the matter comes from the Toronto slugger: &#8220;<a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/783812549389070336" target="_blank">I&#8217;m not looking for revenge. I&#8217;m looking to win ball games.</a>&#8221;</p>
<p>Winning games is truly the best revenge. Hopefully both sides remember that nugget and set aside the frivolous macho crap to focus on a huge set of baseball games.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Texas Rangers</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Gomez &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ian Desmond &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Beltran &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Adrian Beltre &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Rougned Odor &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Lucroy &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Shin-Soo Choo &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mitch Moreland &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Ezequiel Carrera &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Elvis Andrus &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays head to Texas with a pair of daunting pitchers waiting for their arrival. In what&#8217;s surely to be a heated series, the Jays could do themselves a major favor by getting off to a quick start and winning one on the road. While that&#8217;s no small feat against Hamels and Darvish, the Jays will be countering with top notch starters of their own. If they can knock a timely hit or two they can set themselves up nicely for the trip back home.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Not Those Guys Again: Rays Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/12/not-those-guys-again-rays-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Sep 2016 14:07:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays September 12 &#8211; 14 Written by Elie Waitzer and Greg Wisniewski The Tampa Bay rays have 82 losses already, guaranteeing them a losing season, and it’s only the 12th of September. This looks especially bad, since the rest of the division has no more than 66 losses apiece. Truly, the Rays are the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">September 12 &#8211; 14</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Elie Waitzer and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<p>The Tampa Bay rays have 82 losses already, guaranteeing them a losing season, and it’s only the 12<sup>th</sup> of September. This looks especially bad, since the rest of the division has no more than 66 losses apiece. Truly, the Rays are the doormat of the AL East, if only because the other teams are so unexpectedly good. The Jays only salvaged one win at the end of the series they played at the Trop, and without a series win against the Rays at home, the conversation about the Jays playoff chances will start to shift from “division winner” to “which wild card slot can they try to hang on to.”</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, September 12th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Francisco Liriano vs. Jake Odorizzi</strong></p>
<p>The last start that Liriano made against the Twins was a perfect example of &#8220;Bad Liriano.&#8221; Despite giving up just two hits, he walked four and exited after five innings having allowed four runs. His two appearances out of the bullpen are blemished only by a cheap home run that scraped over that low part of the wall in the Trop where Evan Longoria hit his famous walk-off dinger to send the Rays to the playoffs in 2011.</p>
<p>One interesting thing to watch for is whether Liriano sticks with his trademarked strategy of avoiding the zone like hot lava. The Rays have one of the higher chase rates in the league, but if his slider isn&#8217;t on we&#8217;re going to see a ton of walks instead of whiffs out of the zone. Another thing to note is that the Rays have four lefty bats in their regular lineup. Given how well Logan Morrison has been hitting lately, we could see Mikie Mahtook start in the outfield in place of Corey Dickerson against Liriano.</p>
<p>After weathering a mid-season slump, Odorizzi put together a sparkling August, going 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and 31 K over 36.1 IP. Then Baltimore welcomed him to the month of September by tagging him for seven runs over four innings. He looked very hittable in his last start against Toronto in early August, but overall the Jays&#8217; bats have been handcuffed by Odorizzi, striking out 22 times and managing to score just nine runs over 23 IP. Odorizzi&#8217;s successes and failures this season have coincided with his walk rate, so the Jays need to get back to their patient ways and take advantage of his 43.3 Zone%.</p>
<h4>Tuesday, September 13th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs. Drew Smyly</strong></p>
<p>Stroman has taken some hard-luck losses recently, with the Jays offence going ice-cold when he takes the mound. Recently he&#8217;s struggled with efficiency, suddenly losing command of his fastball mid-inning and needing 20 or 30 pitches to get three outs. That&#8217;s not how a ground ball pitcher should be operating, and the Jays need him to conserve his pitch count to get deep into games. One thing to watch against the Rays is how Stroman&#8217;s slider fares. Tampa Bay&#8217;s hitters have the second-highest ISO against sliders in the league (.194), but also strikeout on the pitch at a 34.6 percent clip. It&#8217;ll be boom or bust for Stroman in Tampa Bay.</p>
<p>This is the most intriguing matchup of the series, as both Stroman and Smyly have the potential to either rack up a ton of strikeouts or give up a ton of home runs. Or both. Smyly has thrown more innings against Toronto than any other team this season, and it&#8217;s been up and down. An encouraging sign for the Jays is that Smyly&#8217;s velocity has been trending down all season long, with his slider in particular losing approximately 4 MPH since April.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, September 14th – 12:37 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada vs. Alex Cobb</strong></p>
<p>Don&#8217;t step on a crack or you&#8217;ll break your Marco&#8217;s back. The Jays&#8217; quality start machine has maintained that his back is not the issue, but just looking at his delivery you can tell there&#8217;s some discomfort. Over his last five starts he has posted a 7.71 ERA while walking 3.5 batters per nine innings and going more than six innings just once. His 2.18 ERA vs. Tampa Bay over nine games is the best of any current Jays starter, and although he was touched up for five runs in his last turn against them, it was on only seven hits. In fact, his BABIP over this horrible five start stretch is an astronomical .347, which suggests he&#8217;s due for some reverse in luck.</p>
<p>Cobb flummoxed the Jays in his first start back from the DL on Sep. 2, striking out seven and generating pathetically weak contact. He looked a little more mortal in his last start against the Yankees &#8211; surrendering two homers &#8211; but the Jays will need to go into this game with a smarter plan against Cobb. He&#8217;s essentially a fastball-changeup guy (though he does have a wicked curveball that he&#8217;ll throw every now and then), and the Jays have far and away the highest walk rate against changeups this season (8.8 percent). It&#8217;s obviously not as simple as that, but hopefully the fact that most of the lineup has seen Cobb&#8217;s stuff before will help.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The expanded roster for Tampa Bay includes the addition of Eddie Gamboa, Curt Casali, Ryan Garton, Justin Marks, Mikie Mahtook, Steve Geltz, Richie Shaffer, Chase Whitely, and the signing of Alexi Ramirez. Are any of these guys hot prospects on their way up? How about Richie Schaffer, who is 24 years old was the 25th overall pick in 2012? He plays the corner infield positions, but barring a Longoria injury, I can guess we might see him at first base or DH only.</p>
<p>We already covered the additions for the Blue Jays a week ago, but a friendly reminder that the precense of base stealing specialist Dalton Pompey and a third catcher available in Dioner Navarro or Josh Thole give John Gibbons a lot more flexibility on offense. The bullpen, too, is full of options, just not any remarkably good ones.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4>What about the Defense?</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays have been unexpectedly bad on defense over the last stretch off bad games. The errors don&#8217;t really tell the story, as catchable balls in the outfield have sailed over fielder&#8217;s heads or fallen in front, and infield positioning has lead to several booted balls that didn&#8217;t get converted into outs. A lot of these miscues don&#8217;t show up in the scorebook, but handing the runner two bases on a missed pickoff turns into a very good run scoring opportunity for the opponent. It&#8217;s hardly the only area the Jays have struggled, but if they start kicking the ball around against the Rays, the losses will likely just keep coming.</p>
<h4>Travis on Top of His Game</h4>
<p>As of this writing, Devon Travis is on a seven game hit streak, 15 for 35, for a .428 batting average. In fact, since his first multi hit game this year, back on June 13th (we&#8217;ll make this the arbitrary end of his &#8220;Spring Training&#8221; as he was rushed back from rehab) he&#8217;s been marvelous. He&#8217;s hit .337/.366/.519 for an .884 OPS. His tAV is a tidy .283. If he continues to be this tough to defend against, he&#8217;s the perfect leadoff hitter for the Jays in September.</p>
<p><strong>The Bullpen Battle</strong></p>
<p>The Blue Jays, of late, have been up against many situations where a late comeback would have been truly excellent. In the sweep of Minnesota, all of the games seemed like they hinged on the ineptness of the Twins bullpen. The potential good news is that while the Rays starters have a 4.16 DRA (11th best in baseball), their bullpen comes out at 4.61, 26th worst in baseball. The Jays rate a 17th (4.38) for their starters, and respectable 13th (4.06) for their relievers. So, unlike facing, say, New York and Cleveland, all is not lost when facing a deficit late in the game.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Tampa Bay Rays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Forsythe &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Kiermaier &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Evan Longoria &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Brad Miller &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Logan Morrison &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Nick Franklin &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Steven Souza &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr. &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Corey Dickerson &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Bobby Wilson &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Dropping two of three from the Sox put the Jays in a tie for the wild card with Baltimore, while Tampa did Toronto a favour by keeping the Yankees at bay for another game. Maybe Tampa can do another favour by being jet-lagged for three days upon arriving in the T-dot. What does it all mean? By no means is this the end of the season, but Boston&#8217;s offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and Toronto&#8217;s is not. They&#8217;re certainly not hitting enough to overcome a pitching staff that is letting a half a dozen runs in every other night (which is a thing that is actually happening.) Some part of the Jays game needs to get locked back in, and the rest needs to follow along very quickly. This is the get it done league, as we have been told, and against a last place team in the middle of September, there&#8217;s no alternative.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: Playing Meaningful September Baseball</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/04/this-week-in-blue-jays-playing-meaningful-september-baseball/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 04 Sep 2016 11:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[For the second year in a row, as August fades and the first hint of autumn weather signals the end of summer, the conversation has once again turned to that of meaningful baseball in September for the Toronto Blue Jays. Meaningful September baseball. If you haven’t done so already, let that sink in for a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the second year in a row, as August fades and the first hint of autumn weather signals the end of summer, the conversation has once again turned to that of meaningful baseball in September for the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Meaningful September baseball. If you haven’t done so already, let that sink in for a minute.</p>
<p>So many years of having nothing to look forward to in September, save for playing spoiler to whichever teams were still fighting for a playoff spot. Despite having all the love in the world for a team, to be a fan of one that ends every season simply playing out the string is a tedious existence. And yet, here we are, two games into meaningful September baseball, still (tied for) first in the division, and it feels as though there is so much with which to be concerned.</p>
<p>And, I totally get it. After the exhilaration of last season’s unexpected division championship and playoff run, during which both the opposition and this fan base were absolutely blown away by the juggernaut that was this team’s offense, this season has had a very different vibe. While the Jays have already been blown out the same number of times as all of last season (12 games), they have won just 25 game by five or more runs (with 27 games remaining) compared to blowing out other teams 37 times in 2015. Rather than leading the league in runs as they did last season, the Jays are fourth in the majors and second in the AL East behind the one team that could potentially oust them from first. Their +99 run differential is nowhere close to the +221 run differential of last season, despite having mostly the same lineup. In other words, the Jays are winning in a less spectacular fashion than last season, leaving little room for error when the bats turn cold as they have a number of times the last few week and, in turn.</p>
<p>Yet, they have just one fewer win than they did after 135 games last season. Bolstered by an improved pitching staff that leads the American League and is fifth in the majors with a 3.81 team ERA, thanks primarily by their starting rotation, which has a combined ERA of 3.72 entering yesterday’s game, the Jays have simply found other ways to win. It&#8217;s not nearly as much fun to watch as last season, however, and with the Red Sox hitting the cover off the ball, being tied for first feels like a very tenuous position in which to be.</p>
<p>Entering the month of September, the gambling site Bovada <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/oddsmakers-have-toronto-blue-jays-fourth-in-line-among-world-series-favourites" target="_blank">listed the Jays as being the fourth favourite</a> to win the World Series at 15-to-2 odds, behind the Cubs (3-to-1), Nationals (11-to-2) and Rangers (13-to-2). The Jays are also favoured to win the AL East at 10-to-11 odds in comparison to 8-to-5 odds for the Red Sox. <a href="http://pfm16.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">Baseball Prospectus</a> places the Jays&#8217; odds of making the playoffs at 90.6% with a 48.8% shot at the division title. As <a href="https://theringer.com/just-a-heads-up-the-blue-jays-are-still-awesome-3c70989ebc81#.jv3hk0wro" target="_blank">Michael Baumann of The Ringer</a> writes, over the first four months of the season, the Jays spend four days tied for or in sole possession of first; they spent the month of August leading the division for 26 of 31 days.</p>
<p>That’s little consolation to fans who have watched this offense struggle to score runs against the Rays and Angels while surrendering a ton of runs to the Twins. Such inconsistency is, simply put, both frustrating and worrisome, especially when the Red Sox just keep mashing. In his most recent piece for The Score, Simon Sharkey-Gotlieb <a href="http://www.thescore.com/news/1080994" target="_blank">looked at the contenders&#8217; schedules</a> for the remainder of the season. Entering September, the Jays had ten games remaining versus sub-.500 teams while the Red Sox had nine (two of which have been played by each team &#8211; the Jays&#8217; two losses to the Rays and the Sox&#8217;s two wins against the Athletics). Conversely, the Jays will play 19 games versus teams at or above .500, compared to 20 for Boston.</p>
<p>Twenty-two of the Jays&#8217; remaining games are within the division with 16 on the road, while the Red Sox will play 23 against division rivals with 19 road games. Three of those are in San Diego, where Big Papi will either have to play the field or not at all. While the Jays have a slight edge in terms of scheduling, the most likely scenario is that it will take the six games that the two teams have remaining against one another that will decide the division. In their thirteen previous games this season, the Jays have won seven, suggesting that the race really is too close to call.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not going to lie. I&#8217;m not comfortable with where the Jays are right now. Anything less than another division championship would feel like a disappointment, and, quite frankly, the thought of a possible one-and-done wild card game is something for which I am not prepared. But, this feeling, this passion, this angst, could not exist without meaningful baseball in September. And, while I&#8217;m not at all comfortable with the position in which the Jay are currently, it sure as hell beats all those years of having nothing to play for in September.</p>
<p>Quick Hits:</p>
<ul>
<li>Though his on-field contributions are on display nightly, it can be easy to forget the impact that a veteran player such as Troy Tulowitzki has behind the scenes. While we&#8217;ve heard stories about he and Josh Donaldson sitting around discussing hitting, his <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/09/02/the-education-of-the-blue-jays-marcus-stroman.html" target="_blank">mentorship</a> of Marcus Stroman is perhaps more notable. The two have become quite close, with Tulowitzki taking the sophomore under his wing to help him navigate the ups and downs of 162-game season. Quite frankly, we probably all could use some life advice from Troy Tulowitzki.</li>
<li>Seventeen year old Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who <a href="http://jaysjournal.com/2016/09/02/vladimir-guerrero-jr-wraps-strong-first-season-blue-jays/?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">played with the Bluefield Blue Jays</a> in the Appalachian League this season, ended the year with a .271 batting average and .808 OPS with eight home runs, 46 RBI and 64 hits in 276 plate appearances. There’s no doubt he’s built for power, but has yet to settle into a defensive position – he made eight errors in 113 chances at third base. Though he’s a long way off from making his major league debut, he is no doubt someone to follow as he ascends the minor league ranks.</li>
<li>Conversations with Cabbie may just be the most entertaining of all. This one in particular, in which our boys in blue discuss their <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqfyfu_lHyk" target="_blank">&#8220;main gloves&#8221; and their &#8220;side gloves&#8221;</a>, is so full of innuendo that, well, we can&#8217;t be entirely sure they were talking about gloves.</li>
<li>And, finally. In case you somehow missed it, Sportsnet’s Barry Davis filled time Thursday night by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ozifh-65sVE&amp;feature=youtu.be%20" target="_blank">writing and recording a song</a> in honour of reliever Joe Biagini, who was given a chance to <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/hurricane-barry-writes-song-biagini/%20" target="_blank">react while the cameras were rolling</a>. It&#8217;s the latest in an ongoing series of delightfully awkward interactions between the two that has made for one of the more lighthearted side stories of the season.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Bombing into Baltimore: Orioles Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/bombing-into-baltimore-orioles-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 16:28:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES AUGUST 29TH &#8211; AUGUST 31ST Written by Sean Addis and Joshua Howsam The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a 15 game stretch against American League East opponents beginning with a nine game road trip Monday night in Baltimore. This will be Toronto&#8217;s last time at the Camden Yards this regular [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">AUGUST 29TH &#8211; AUGUST 31ST</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Sean Addis and Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a 15 game stretch against American League East opponents beginning with a nine game road trip Monday night in Baltimore. This will be Toronto&#8217;s last time at the Camden Yards this regular season, a place where they have lost four of six games. The Blue Jays are coming off a sweep of the last place Minnesota Twins, while the Orioles are coming off a series loss to the New York Yankees. This series has major implications for both teams as the Orioles enter three games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East. The Blue Jays have aligned their three best starters for the series, but in hitter friendly Camden Yards they will need to minimize mistakes to be effective. The postseason race is about to enter its final month and this is an opportunity for both teams to make a statement.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, August 29 – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada vs. Wade Miley</strong></p>
<p>Estrada has had a bit of a rough go of things lately. After going at least six innings in 17 of his first 19 starts, the Mexican righty has failed to go past five in any of his last three outings. Over that span, he has tossed 14 innings and allowed 14 runs (13 earned), which has seen his ERA rise over half a run from 2.92 to 3.47. Estrada has been dealing with both control and long ball issues, as he has allowed six home runs and seven walks in those three starts. With the powerful Orioles lineup, he will have to avoid both or he could find himself looking at another early exit. He has faced them three times this season with decent results (3.70 ERA in 17 innings), but Baltimore has been patient and forced him to throw strikes in each outing. It&#8217;s tough to bet against Estrada given all we&#8217;ve seen thus far, but he&#8217;s been dealing with some back issues which may be slowing him down. Pitching on his proper four days rest should give us a sign of what to expect from the early-season ace going forward.</p>
<p>Wade Miley is not a very good pitcher. He enters this game with a 5.51 ERA in 24 starts, and an 8.18 ERA in five starts with the Orioles. However, his peripheral stats suggest he is slightly better. In 2016, he has a DRA of 3.93, as he generates a some groundballs and does have the ability to miss bats when he needs to. As such, he is more than capable of busting out a good start once in a while. In fact, he did just that against the Blue Jays back on July 24 (with Seattle). He held Toronto to just two runs on four hits (two walks) in six innings. He threw well his last time out as well, holding the Nationals to two runs through five, striking out six. All that being said, the Blue Jays <em>should</em> mash the lefty.</p>
<h4>Tuesay, August 30 – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ vs. Ubaldo Jimenez</strong></p>
<p>What is there to say about Happ that hasn&#8217;t been said already? The man just keeps getting it done. A sixth inning blip last time out against the Angels notwithstanding, Happ has been excellent from game one. He takes a 17-4 record and a 3.19 ERA into this game, and to take that a bit deeper, he has two or fewer runs in 15 of his 25 start this year. He has also started striking people out more lately, with a K/9 of 11.45 over his last nine starts (when he switched to more fourseamers). Basically, Happ is showing that what he did at the end of last year and the start of this season is no fluke. He really is a very, very good pitcher now. As far as matchups go, one would think the Orioles would be tough for the tall left-hander. After all, they boast a lot of right-handed power with the likes of Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, and Adam Jones. Happ has kept them in check, however. Across two starts, both wins, the southpaw has tossed 14 innings and allowed just five runs (3.21 ERA) with 16 strikeouts against only three walks. It will be interesting to see how things go in Camden Yards, but expect another good outing from Mr. Happ.</p>
<p>For the longest time, the Blue Jays just could not solve Ubaldo Jimenez. It didn&#8217;t seem to matter whether he was having a good year or bad, or how wild he had been lately, he just owned Toronto. The first time they faced him this year, it looked like more of the same; Jimenez held the Blue Jays to just two runs in five innings, striking out six times. The universe finally corrected itself the next two times out. Jimenez was absolutely rocked to the tune of 10 runs over a combined 2 1/3 innings. In fact, the first outing was so bad that it cost Jimenez his rotation spot (that second appearance came in relief). He has bounced in and out of the rotation since then, and is back now due to an injury to staff ace, Chris Tillman. He did look good the last time out though, shutting down the Nationals over six innings (he allowed just one run and no walks). That being said, this should be another good matchup for the Jays.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, August 31 – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Yovani Gallardo</strong></p>
<p>He&#8217;s back! Making his first start since a brief demotion (for roster reasons), Sanchez takes on the Orioles on a full ten days&#8217; rest. Like Happ, he has been absolutely excellent this year. His 2.99 ERA sits fourth in the American League and he held opponents to two or fewer runs in 16 of his 24 starts. Baltimore does happen to be one of the only teams that has really gotten to the young ace, as he lasted just five innings and gave up six runs on ten hits the first time they met. He turned things around the next couple of times though, holding the Orioles to just three runs in thirteen innings. It will be very interesting to see how he responds in this one, as the layoff is extremely long for a starting pitcher (he did not pitch in the minors), and he did struggle a little bit the last time out against the Indians. Sanchez is a huge part of the push for the playoffs and beyond, so there is a very real chance that he will be on a short leash once again. If the bullpen is rested, don&#8217;t be surprised to see Sanchez leave the game after only five innings.</p>
<p>The report on Gallardo could basically be a carbon copy of the start of the Jimenez breakdown. For whatever reason, the Jays just could not hit Gallardo for the last couple of years. They could get baserunners, but they could just never break through. He beat the Jays in the regular season last year, again in the postseason, and held them to two runs across five innings in his first start this year. Things looked bad again in his most recent outing, as he held Toronto off the scoreboard for the first four innings, but the offense exploded for seven runs in the fifth (five off Gallardo) to finally get to their nemesis. He actually bounced back nicely from that start and threw four good games in a row against a mixed bag of opponents, dropping his ERA from an abysmal 5.70 to a simply really bad 5.08. He got rocked last time out though, giving up seven run in 1 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA right back to 5.69. He&#8217;s going to throw a lot of junk, and nothing straight, but for the third time this series, the matchup definitely favours Toronto.</p>
<h3>ADDITIONS AND SUBTRACTIONS</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will formally welcome back former catcher Dioner Navarro, who was acquired on Friday for double-A left-hander Colton Turner. As a result, Toronto waived C Josh Thole, however, it is expected that if he clears waivers they will resign him prior to R.A. Dickey&#8217;s next start in Tampa. In an attempt to improve the depth of the bullpen the Blue Jays DFA&#8217;d Aaron Loup and promoted relief pitcher Bo Schultz from Triple-A Buffalo during the last series. The Blue Jays will activate starter Aaron Sanchez for Wednesday&#8217;s start, so a subsequent move is expected to follow.</p>
<p>As a result of two blowouts over the weekend the Orioles have made a flurry of transactions over the last few days. They signed (former Oriole) reliever Tommy Hunter, recalled right-handed pitcher Oliver Drake, optioned right-hander Mike Wright to the Norfolk Tides and designated left-handed reliever Tyler McFarland for assignment. Orioles centre fielder Adam Jones, exited Friday&#8217;s game in New York with a strained left hamstring but could return to the lineup on Monday night.</p>
<p>Pitchers, Chris Tillman (shoulder injury) and Darren O&#8217;Day (shoulder strain), remain on the disabled list for the Orioles and are not expected to be activated for this series.</p>
<h3>KEEP AN EYE ON</h3>
<p><strong>The Killer B&#8217;s</strong></p>
<p>The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best one-two punch in the bullpen in baseball. Their set up man, Brad Brach, has been dominant with a 1.68 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 10.35 K/9. As good as he has been Zach Britton has been even better. Britton is perfect in save opportunities with 38, has a microscopic ERA 0.68 and WHIP 0.81, and an impressive 10.56 K/9. It has been the performance of Brach and Britton that have been a key to the Orioles ability to remain in contention. For the Blue Jays to be successful in the series, they need to have the lead before the &#8220;Killer B&#8217;s&#8221; can become a factor.</p>
<p><b>Jays Offence is on Fire</b></p>
<p>The Minnesota Twins pitchers were just what the Blue Jays offence needed to get out of their August slumber. Toronto scored 32 runs, hit nine home runs and came back from two deficits to sweep the lowly Twins. The Jays will face three starters who have struggled most of the season and will try to continue to their hot streak at the plate. It will be imperative to dominate these starters to avoid the deadly backend of the bullpen and give their pitchers more room for error against the high powering Orioles offence.</p>
<p><strong>&#8220;Waiver Trade Deadline&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>August 31st waiver deadline is the last chance for teams to add players for them to be eligible for the playoffs. The Blue Jays and Orioles have both been active already with the additions of Navarro and Hunter respectively. Both teams could still benefit from adding further pieces to bolster their roster so keep your eyes on the transaction wire over the next few days.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Orioles</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista-DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Adam Jones-CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson-3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Hyun soo Kim-LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Manny Machado-3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin-C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Davis-1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki-SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mark Trumbo-RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders-RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Schoop-2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar-CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Pedro Alvarez-DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Matt Wieters-C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis-2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">JJ Hardy-SS</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Toronto has an opportunity to put further distance between themselves and Baltimore and the pitching match ups are in their favour, especially avoiding Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy in this series. However, Camden Yards has been a challenge for the Blue Jays and winning two of three would be considered a huge success.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: The Frustratingly Good Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/28/this-week-in-blue-jays-the-frustratingly-good-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/28/this-week-in-blue-jays-the-frustratingly-good-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 28 Aug 2016 11:26:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[frustrating]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5997</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays might just be the most frustrating first place team that has ever existed. At the very least, it has certainly felt that way over the past two weeks. What, with the inconsistent nature of the offense, the shaky pitching performances and opposing players’ ground balls that somehow, mysteriously, manage to find [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2016 Toronto Blue Jays might just be the most frustrating first place team that has ever existed. At the very least, it has certainly felt that way over the past two weeks.</p>
<p>What, with the inconsistent nature of the offense, the shaky pitching performances and opposing players’ ground balls that somehow, mysteriously, manage to find a hole. Meanwhile the Jays can’t seem to buy themselves a base hit.</p>
<p>And yet, after 129 games the Blue Jays have a 73-56 record: the exact same record that they had at this point last season. They lead the AL East by a full game over the Boston Red Sox, which is also roughly the same, as they held a 1.5 game lead over the Yankees in 2015. So why, then, does there seem to be so much more angst amongst the fan base?</p>
<p>Perhaps it’s the fact that last season, the AL East was only a two-horse race. While the Jays and Yankees were battling it out for first, the Orioles sat nine games back in third place, well out of the playoff conversation. This year, the race is much tighter. Just three games separate the Jays, Red Sox, and Orioles. The wild card race is also much more congested than it was last season. Currently, the Red Sox have a 1.5 game lead over the Orioles for the first wild card, but Detroit, Seattle, Houston Kansas City and New York are all within 2.5 games of the second. Last season, the Texas Rangers were four games back of the Yankees for the first wild card while only Minnesota and Los Angeles were within 2.5 games of the second wild card.</p>
<p>With so much parity, each game feels like it’s a must-win, and thus as a fan it’s easy to be swept up in the excitement of a win, and become irrationally angry at a loss. It <em>feels</em> as though one or two bad losses, especially if coupled with a Red Sox or Orioles victory, could derail the entire season. When the <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/disturbing-offensive-trend-continues-blue-jays-finale-vs-angels/" target="_blank">lowly Angels take two of three</a> on the Jays&#8217; home turf, it&#8217;s difficult to maintain perspective, to remember that good teams sometimes lose to bad teams (as the Red Sox did to the Rays) for seemingly imperceptible reasons, because there are blips within a 162 game season that cannot be explained.</p>
<p>Perhaps, too, is the fact that this year feels different because, as a fan base, <em>we</em> are different than we were last season. Those who have been following this team for any length of time remembers the all those years following the glory days of 1992/1993, years of toiling in mediocrity inside a half-empty Dome, eleven seasons of below-.500 baseball that ended with the refrain “maybe next season”. And, the way 2015 started out, it appeared as though, despite all the talent, despite #NapTogether followed by June’s eleven game win streak, the Jays would once again fade away.</p>
<p>On July 28th, the day Troy Tulowitzki was traded to Toronto, the Jays were one game below .500 and eight games out of first, chasing three other teams. And then, with newly acquired David Price in the fold, the Jays took three of four from the Kansas City Royals, including that emotional bean-ball laden game that may have been the galvanizing force in the season. From therein, this fan base flocked to the Dome, their televisions, opponent&#8217;s stadiums, riding the wave of baseball highs that were new to so many. Every moment defied expectations, because we were cheering for an underdog. Underdogs don&#8217;t disappoint; they sweep you up and carry you along for the ride, and every moment of it seems magical because at one point those moments did not seem possible.</p>
<p>The expectations of this team are quite different this season. After watching the Jays lead the world in runs scored last season, there is an expectation that they will simply exert their will on other teams, and when they fail to do so, it elicits concern. And, truthfully, that concern is not unwarranted when the entire lineup appears to go cold all at the same time, forcing starting pitchers to work with the thinnest margin of error. However, when that concern spills over to fretting about Josh Thole hitting in the ninth spot every five days or so, perhaps one needs to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. There is reason to be concerned about Marco Estrada&#8217;s last three starts, especially given how he was considered to be the Jays&#8217; best pitcher at one point this season, but to extrapolate and use it as &#8220;proof&#8221; that the six-man rotation has failed is false logic when you look at the rest of the rotation.</p>
<p>Players and teams will experience ebbs and flows over the course of a season. Remember how poorly Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin began this season? Recall how infuriating it was when it seemed as though Melvin Upton Jr. would do nothing but strike out? Good players find their way out of a slump just as good teams will normalize over the course of a season.</p>
<p>This team is in the exact same position that it was in last season, it&#8217;s simply taken a different path to get there. A greater number of games have been won on pitching and defense rather than sheer offensive prowess. It&#8217;s a far less exciting manner in which to win, and when they lose, it&#8217;s easy to scrutinize every mistake, particularly since expectations have been raised. If this were 2015, the fan base would be elated at the three-way battle for first; instead, frustration exists that the Jays haven&#8217;t just run away with the East. That&#8217;s perfectly fine. Be frustrated. Show passion. But remember, too, that this <em>is</em> a first place team &#8211; and we wouldn&#8217;t trade that for the world.</p>
<p>Quick Hits:</p>
<ul>
<li>Just prior to Friday&#8217;s game against the Twins it was announced that the <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/dioner-navarro-trade-means-blue-jays/" target="_blank">Jays had reacquired fan favourite </a>Dioner Navarro from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Double-A pitcher Colton Turner. Navarro will provide a switch-hitting bat off the bench as well as depth at the catcher&#8217;s position, which is of particular importance should R.A. Dickey not be named to the playoff roster. Though it is a relatively minor move, it demonstrates once again the front office&#8217;s efforts to improve the team heading into the final stretch of the season.</li>
<li>As the August trade deadline nears, <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/08/22/blue-jays-need-joey-votto-more-than-ever-griffin.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">discussion of the Jays pursuing Reds’</a> Joey Votto have become increasingly more frequent. The two teams apparently engaged in serious discussions regarding Votto last season, but to no end. Acquiring Votto would, in many ways, make sense. The Jays need a left-handed threat in the lineup and Votto is one of the toughest outs in all of baseball. He’s locked up long term which satisfies the Jays’ need at first base, particularly if Edwin Encarnacion leaves in free agency. Though he has a hefty contract –who’s owed $22 million next season and $25 million each year thereafter through to his age 40 season &#8211; the Jays very well could lose Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and R.A. Dickey after this season, and have demonstrated a willingness to spend money. Finally, such a blockbuster move would not only benefit the Jays during this playoff run, but Votto would also help keep the window of contention open along with Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin.</li>
<li>With a good September, Josh Donaldson <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2660069-a-hot-josh-donaldson-could-give-blue-jays-the-playoff-race-edge" target="_blank">could put himself right at the top of the MVP list</a> for a second straight season. Though he likely won’t hit 41 home runs and 123 RBI again (he’s at 30 and 87), his .960 OPS is higher than it was last season (.939). He’s up against Mike Trout, who once again leads the league in WARP and Jose Altuve, who leads the batting race. Mookie Betts, David Ortiz and Edwin Encarnacion may also factor into the conversation. Regardless of whether or not he can repeat as MVP, once thing is certain – the Jays are a better team when Donaldson is swinging a hot bat.</li>
<li>Ross Atkins confirmed that the Jays would <a href="https://twitter.com/RGriffinStar/status/768280590160240640" target="_blank">send a scout to Tim Tebow’s workout</a> August 30<sup>th</sup>. The former NFL quarterback is attempting to break into baseball and supposedly has an “impressive” swing. I can’t imagine anything actually coming of it, but I suppose it doesn’t hurt to take a look.</li>
<li>And, finally. What Pros Wear has put together several videos of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEQuR2bpZ1o-_O6wysLUDvg" target="_blank">MLB players discussing the gloves they use</a>. Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Kevin Pillar and Troy Tulowitzki were all featured in the series</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>He&#8217;s Back: Blue Jays Trade for Dioner Navarro</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/26/news-dioner-navarro-just-when-he-thought-he-was-out-they-pulled-him-back-in/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/26/news-dioner-navarro-just-when-he-thought-he-was-out-they-pulled-him-back-in/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Aug 2016 00:36:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dioner Navarro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5959</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a surprise move that was announced just prior to the start of Friday’s game, the Jays have traded for catcher Dioner Navarro in exchange for minor-league left-handed pitcher Colton Turner. The @BlueJays have acquired C Dioner Navarro from Chicago in exchange for LHP Colton Turner. Welcome back Dioner! pic.twitter.com/cRFcXhhbGh &#8212; Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a surprise move that was announced just prior to the start of Friday’s game, the Jays have traded for catcher Dioner Navarro in exchange for minor-league left-handed pitcher Colton Turner.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays">@BlueJays</a> have acquired C Dioner Navarro from Chicago in exchange for LHP Colton Turner. Welcome back Dioner! <a href="https://t.co/cRFcXhhbGh">pic.twitter.com/cRFcXhhbGh</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/769313683176423424">August 26, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Navarro, of course, was the Jays’ full time catcher in 2014 and the back-up catcher behind Russell Martin last season. He left Toronto at the end of 2015 as a free agent and signed a one-year $4 million deal with the Chicago White Sox. In 85 games thus far this season, he’s batting .210/.267/.339 with an OPS of .606. He provides a switch-hitting bat off the bench and will likely back-up Martin once again, which is of particular importance given the likelihood of R.A. Dickey being left off the playoff roster, negating the need for Josh Thole.</p>
<p>It is also noteworthy that Narvarro caught Marco Estrada last season. Given Estrada&#8217;s recent struggles on the mound, it will be interesting to see if the two become battery mates once again. The Jays have often looked to carry a third catcher during September&#8217;s expanded roster period, and without an heir apparent in the Jays system, Navarro fills that role.</p>
<p>Colton Turner is a twenty-five year old lefty who had been playing with the Double-A New Hampshire Fishercats, where he had a 3-1 record with an ERA of 1.33 and a WHIP of 1.09 in 54 innings pitched.</p>
<p><em> Lead photo- Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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