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	<title>Toronto &#187; Pittsburgh Pirates</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Pirates</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/10/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-pirates/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Aug 2017 00:56:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Rowley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felipe Rivero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pittsburgh Pirates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Sean Addis, Rachael McDaniel, and Gideon Turk Rowley to the Rescue In the middle game of the three game series against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, the Toronto Blue Jays will use their 12th different starting pitcher of the 2017 season. Right-hander Chris Rowley will be given the ball on Saturday afternoon. The 26-year-old may [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Sean Addis, Rachael McDaniel, and Gideon Turk</em></p>
<h3><b>Rowley to the Rescue</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In the middle game of the three game series against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, the Toronto Blue Jays will use their 12</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> different starting pitcher of the 2017 season. Right-hander Chris Rowley will be given the ball on Saturday afternoon. The 26-year-old may not be familiar name for many Blue Jays fans. This could be due to the fact he did not pitch in the team’s minor league system during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Many would assume the lack of baseball activity was due to injury, however, that wasn’t the case for Rowley. He had graduated from the US Academy at West Point and had to fulfill his service commitment (owed Army time) after his graduation. As a result, many teams passer on spending a pick on him. On the other hand, the Blue Jays<a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/895837914088734720" target="_blank"> took a flier on him</a> and invited had him pitch for the Gulf Coast League prior to his deployment to Europe.</span> You can read all about his unusual journey in <a title="The Unusual Journey of Blue Jays Prospect Chris Rowley" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/23/the-unusual-journey-of-blue-jays-prospect-chris-rowley/" target="_blank">this profile by Tammy Rainey</a> from June</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In his second full minor league season since his return, Rowley split his time with Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo.  In 27 games (11 starts) he has posted impressive numbers:  2.29 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.016 WHIP and a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.75. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Rowley’s fastball tops out at 91-92 mph, but he has been able to effectively mix his other assortment of pitches (slider, sinker and changeup). His success can be attributed to keeping the ball down in the zone due to his high ground ball rate (47 %), and keeping hitters off balance with a 16-19% line drive rate, as well as only surrendering six home runs over 106.1 innings.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Unlike other spot starters Rowley brings more potential and a higher ceiling. As much as the Blue Jays hope he helps a depleted rotation in the present, they can also view this as an audition to be an option to slot into a rotation for next season. </span></p>
<h3><b>Felipe Rivero, Legitimate Relief Ace </b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In 2016, Felipe Rivero was a mediocre lefty reliever with one fantastically good pitch. Rivero’s changeup in 2016 was in the top ten of all relievers (min. 200 pitches) in velocity and horizontal and vertical break. It lead all relievers in whiffs per swing, which the pitch generated at a 58.3 percent clip. But in spite of this elite pitch, Rivero ended the year with pedestrian numbers.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This season has seen Rivero become nothing short of a revelation for the Pirates. He currently sports a 1.75 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and has been worth 1.9 WARP out of the Pirates bullpen. (Rivero’s stats likely haunt the dreams of the Washington Nationals front office, who last season traded him away for two months of Mark Melancon.)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">What has changed for Rivero this season? First of all, he’s throwing harder. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">All of Rivero’s pitches have seen an uptick in velocity over the past year. Most significant has been the fourseam fastball, which has gone from averaging 96.8 miles per hour in July 2016 to 99.3 in July 2017. Rivero’s fourseamer has often hit triple digits this year, making it a formidable complement to his changeup.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A large part of Rivero’s overall unremarkable performance in 2016 was due to an extreme reverse platoon split. While he held right-handed batters to a .203/.290/.337 batting line and a 31.7-percent strikeout rate, largely due to the effectiveness of his changeup, lefties put up an unpleasant .286/.387/.378 batting line. In 2017, the platoon split has un-reversed itself. Out of 74 left-handed batters Rivero has faced so far this season, only 11 have reached base &#8211; five hits, three walks, and three hit batters. Lefties are batting .073/.149/.088 against Rivero in 2017. What gives?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Rivero seldom throws the changeup to left-handed batters. He instead opts to use his fourseam fastball in combination with his slider. Unfortunately for Rivero, left-handed batters were all over the fourseamer in 2016. Not only did the pitch lack the velocity that it now has, but Rivero didn’t locate it effectively. Here is where Rivero’s fourseamers ended up against lefties in 2016:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><strong><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.56.44-AM.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12890" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.56.44-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-08-11 at 7.56.44 AM" width="450" height="452" /></a></strong></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left">And here’s where they’ve been in 2017:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><strong><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.57.45-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-12891" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.57.45-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-08-11 at 7.57.45 AM" width="450" height="448" /></a></strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Rather than scattering the fastball across the zone to lefties, as he did in 2016, Rivero has more consistently located his fastballs, primarily up and in the inner half of the strike zone, pairing up with his sweeping down-and-away slider. Add this improved location to the improved velocity and you get a pitch that lefties have hit a clean .000 against since the beginning of May. And just to add to the fun, Rivero has begun to mix in a curveball more frequently in 2017 with a release point is almost identical to the slider’s. So he&#8217;s now dominating lefties &#8211; without using his best pitch.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Used as a setup man for the first part of the season, Rivero fairly recently moved into the closer’s role for the Pirates after Tony Watson proved himself unequal to the task and was subsequently traded. This means that the best course of action for the Jays is to avoid the bottom of the ninth altogether. We’ve seen quite a few dramatic late comebacks over the past several weeks, but with Rivero on the mound, I wouldn’t put my money on another one.</span></p>
<h3><b>Andrew McCutchen Didn&#8217;t Stay Down for Long<br />
</b></h3>
<p>Remember in the off-season, when rumours were swirling about the Blue Jays&#8217; supposed trade interest in Andrew McCutchen? People at the time were opposed to giving up a big package for the Pirates centrefielder because of his performance in 2016, which was far from his career numbers. He suffered drops in power, speed, and plate discipline, all telltale signs that maybe he was starting to enter the decline phase of his career.</p>
<p>That was not the case. McCutchen has stormed back in 2017, putting up numbers that would look plenty normal if you stuck them in with his earlier career peak. He is striking out at his lowest rate since 2013 and putting up his best power season ever according to ISO. His 2016 decline has not showed up in 2017.</p>
<p>However, this doesn&#8217;t mean the Blue Jays have no way of getting him out. His greatest weakness this year has been the slider, with just a .664 OPS against it and 25 strikeouts in 77 at-bats. But there is a very fine line that Blue Jays pitchers need to draw if they are to attack McCutchen with sliders. Although in the aggregate he hasn&#8217;t had success against it, he has still hit three home runs on pitches that were left up. If Blue Jays pitchers can set him up with hard stuff inside and then bury sliders in the dirt, they should be able to manage against McCutchen. If they can&#8217;t control it and miss with their spots, that&#8217;s when he&#8217;ll be able to do what he does best and make them pay.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Searching for Hope: Recent Improbable Playoff Teams</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/01/searching-for-hope-recent-improbable-playoff-teams/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 May 2017 10:49:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Los Angeles Dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Mets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pittsburgh Pirates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10461</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the first month of the season wrapping itself up Sunday afternoon, the Blue Jays find themselves winners of their past two games. From what I&#8217;ve been told, this phenomenon is known as a winning streak, something that Toronto is experiencing for the first time in its 2017 iteration. Their inability to string any wins together has [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the first month of the season wrapping itself up Sunday afternoon, the Blue Jays find themselves winners of their past two games. From what I&#8217;ve been told, this phenomenon is known as a winning streak, something that Toronto is experiencing for the first time in its 2017 iteration. Their inability to string any wins together has put their current record at 8-17, dead last in the AL East. Even if this team were to turn it around and play the rest of their games at their expected talent level, they would still most likely fall short of the playoffs due to their abysmal start. Combine this with the injuries that the team has suffered in the first month of the season, and optimism has clearly faded for the back-to-back AL finalists.</p>
<p>However, not all hope is lost. The month of May has just begun, and even at who-knows-how-many-at-this-point games back of the division lead, the Jays have 137 games to make an improbable run to the playoffs. According to the <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/index_final.php?year_id=2017&amp;dispgroup=div&amp;submit=Go">Playoff Odds Report at Baseball Prospectus</a>, the low point of the Blue Jays season occurred after Friday night&#8217;s game. After blowing a 3-1 lead, resulting in Toronto&#8217;s third loss in a row, their odds of reaching the postseason sat at a very low 6.3%. While it will be a long and arduous climb, it one that has been done before. Today, we&#8217;re going to look at the five teams since the addition of the second wild card in 2013 to make the most improbable runs to the playoffs &#8211; teams whose odds of reaching the postseason all fell below 10% at some point during the season.</p>
<h4><strong>2013 Dodgers &#8211; 7.4%</strong></h4>
<p>The 2013 Dodgers began play with sky high expectations, much like those that followed the frenzied offseason of the AL East &#8220;champions-to-be&#8221; Toronto Blue Jays. A blockbuster trade the previous August saw the Dodgers acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Hanley Ramirez to play alongside stars Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. They already had the best pitcher in the game in Clayton Kershaw, and signed top hurlers Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu to long-term contracts during the offseason to make the rotation one of the best in baseball.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Dodgers, not only were their expectations similar to those of the 2013 Blue Jays, their early season play brought similarly disappointing results. The team struggled out of the gate, breaking even in April with a 13-13 record before playing at a 10-17 clip in May. Injuries ravaged the team, as they lost Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier, Crawford, and Greinke to varying ailments early in the year. The low point of the Dodgers’ season came on June 21, when the team sat with a record of 30-42 – nine and a half games back of the first-place Diamondbacks. This equated to playoff odds of 7.4%, a staggering drop from the 75.3% odds they possessed prior to the start of the season. Manager Don Mattingly was rumoured to be on the hot seat, leading a sure-fire playoff team to last place near the midway point of the season.</p>
<p>Something clicked after that 5-2 loss to the Padres on June 21, however. From June 22 through the end of the year, the Dodgers went 62-28, earning a win percentage of .689 and playing at a 112-win pace over 90 games. This logic-defying run began with a six game winning streak, and followed with several more of varying lengths, highlighted by a 10-game streak capped on August 17. Led by Kershaw, Ramirez, and rookie sensation Yasiel Puig, the Dodgers didn’t lose more than two games in a row again until September 7, and became the first team in the majors to clinch a playoff spot on September 19. They continued their momentum through the first round of the playoffs, beating the Atlanta Braves in the Division Series before falling to the Cardinals in the NLCS.</p>
<h4><strong>2014 Pirates &#8211; 5.9%</strong></h4>
<p>The Pirates won 94 games in 2013, and returned to action in 2014 with largely the same squad. The 2013 Pirates were led by the play of NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, helped by a supporting cast that featured up-and-comers Gerrit Cole and Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates were also aided by successful pitching reclamation projects of familiar names to Blue Jays fans – starters A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano, and closer Jason Grilli. All three pitchers experienced comebacks from injury or poor play in recent seasons, helped in part by the influence of backstop Russell Martin and pitching coach Ray Searage. All of these players (with the exception of Burnett) returned to the Pirates in 2014, ready to take another run at the playoffs one year removed from their first in 21 seasons.</p>
<p>After a demoralizing 11-10 loss in 13 innings on May 5 (a game in which they led 8-2), the Pirates were in fourth place in the NL Central with a 12-20 record. This put them nine and a half games back of the division lead and five and a half back of the second wild card, their playoff odds dropping from 21.1% on Opening Day to a measly 5.9%. The Pirates eventually climbed back into postseason contention, but it was not an immediate turnaround.  They rattled off a four game winning streak beginning on May 6, but then followed that by losing five of their next six.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Pittsburgh began to gain footing in the NL Wild Card race. By August 12, they had played to a 52-35 record since May 5, a 97-win pace. This stretch placed them in the first wild card spot, one and a half games ahead of the Cardinals and Giants. After a three-week bump in the road that saw the Pirates drop to two games back of the second wild card, they finished off the season 17-6, tying the San Francisco Giants and securing a spot in the wild card game. Comeback aside, this would be the end of the road for the Pirates, who fell as the first victims of Madison Bumgarner’s historic 2014 playoff performance.</p>
<h4><strong>2014 Royals &#8211; 6.8%</strong></h4>
<p>Another casualty of Bumgarner’s ridiculous playoff run in 2014, the Kansas City Royals, came into 2014 with playoff aspirations. Owners of the longest active postseason drought in North American professional sports at 28 years, Kansas City had just played to its first winning season since 2003. The young core of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, and Alex Gordon was gaining experience, complemented by staff ace James Shields and a sterling bullpen who finished 2013 with the lowest ERA in the AL.</p>
<p>The Royals started off the season well enough, earning a record of 14-11 in the month of April. The month of May did not serve manager Ned Yost and the Royals as well. On May 29, Kansas City headed into a series at the Rogers Centre 24-28, good for fourth place in the AL Central and four games back of the second Wild Card spot. While not a massive deficit, six different teams stood in the way of the Royals&#8217; postseason climb, bringing their playoff odds from a mark of 23.6% on Opening Day down to 6.8%.</p>
<p>The Royals’ misfortune turned around quickly – after the Toronto series, they went on to win 13 of their next 15 games, quickly vaulting themselves to the top of the AL Central. How would the masters of small ball follow up this impressive streak, you might ask? Well, they stumbled to a 9-18 run, finding themselves once again four and a half back of the second Wild Card on July 21.</p>
<p>This up and down season had not made its final swing, however, as the Royals played the remaining 64 games at a 104-win pace. They finished the year with 89 wins and home field advantage in what became one of the greatest wild card games ever played &#8211; a 9-8, 12-inning thriller against the Josh Donaldson-led Oakland Athletics. The Royals emerged victorious, and continued their magical turnaround season all the way to game seven of the World Series, where it finished with the tying run stuck on third base.</p>
<h4><strong>2015 Rangers &#8211; 4.1%</strong></h4>
<p>For a new generation of Blue Jays fans, the 2015 ALDS against the Rangers was the first glimpse of playoff baseball in Toronto. Exciting as it was, the match up was dangerously close to not coming to fruition, as both teams overcame odds of 10.8% or less to make playoffs. While this is as low as it got for Toronto, things were looking even worse for the Texas Rangers on several occasions during the 2015 season.</p>
<p>After putting up a dreadful 67-95 record in 2014, the Rangers looked to be in for a re-tooling season in 2015. The year started with little improvement, as the Rangers struggled to a 7-14 record in the month of April. The team continued to slump through May 19, at which point they went on a surprising 20-7 run. On June 17, the Rangers found themselves 36-30 and within two and a half games of the AL West-leading Astros.</p>
<p>The Rangers roster that went on this run could not sustain this performance, and from June 18 through July 20, the Rangers went on a 7-18 stretch, dropping them nine games back of the division lead. Their playoff odds dropped to 4.1%, essentially taking them out of the playoff race with a roster that didn’t look to be able to contend. Given the lead they had to overcome to make the playoffs, the Rangers then made a move to help build for next year – a move that ended up saving their 2015 season.</p>
<p>On July 29, the Rangers acquired Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman from the Phillies for several prospects. Two days later, the team picked up Sam Dyson from the Marlins in a low-profile move. These two deals helped set the table for the most improbable playoff run since the birth of the second wild card. After the Hamels trade, the Rangers finished the year 39-22, a 104-win pace, to finish the year at 88-74 with the AL West crown.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Throwback to the <a href="https://twitter.com/Rangers">@Rangers</a> clinching a playoff spot!!!! <a href="https://t.co/GD1YpzePHe">pic.twitter.com/GD1YpzePHe</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Died Wob™ (@Zherdev_) <a href="https://twitter.com/Zherdev_/status/731973728389730304">May 15, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Not much else needs to be added about how their season ended.</p>
<h4><strong>2016 Mets &#8211; 7.6%</strong></h4>
<p>Coming off a run to the World Series in 2015, the Mets entered 2016 with hopes of taking the final step. They re-signed 2015 cult hero Yoenis Cespedes for the upcoming season, and returned with one of the most intimidating and promising young rotations of recent memory. The NL East was seen to be as a two-horse race, with the only question being whether it would be the Washington Nationals taking home the division title, or the Mets defending their crown. The start of the season went according to plan, as the Mets got out to a 20-11 start. This put them a half game ahead of the Nationals, and helped New York to a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs.</p>
<p>Then, the injuries hit. Through late April and May, the Mets lost Travis d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, Lucas Duda, and David Wright, all in the range of one month to the entire season. Before long, the injury plague began to take victims of the rotation as well – Matt Harvey was gone for the season in July, and Steven Matz went on the DL for the remainder of the season in August. These injuries, in combination with general bad play, led the Mets to a 40-51 stretch.</p>
<p>By August 19, the Mets record had dropped to 60-62, firmly leaving them out of the NL East picture at 12.5 games behind the Nationals. They were also five and a half games back of the second wild card, and with three teams to pass, saw their odds of reaching the playoffs drop by a whopping 82.5%, down to 7.6%. There’s a reason the 2016 Mets made this list, however – a season-defining stretch of baseball was still in the works. The Mets finished the season on a 27-13 run, a pace that would have netted them 109 wins over a full year of baseball. Finishing the year at 87-75, their season ended (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) with a dominating performance from Madison Bumgarner, who shutout the Mets in a 1-0 Giants win in the NL Wild Card Game.</p>
<h4>2017 Blue Jays</h4>
<p>To recap, five teams have made the playoffs since 2013 with postseason odds of 7.6% or less at one point in the season. This is not to suggest that a playoff appearance in 2017 is bound to happen for Toronto, as you would find more teams who have missed the playoffs in these situations than those who have reached them. The presence of these comeback stories also does not diminish the fact that the Blue Jays have had a terrible start.</p>
<p>Yet, the dream could still be alive. Teams have been worse off and still made the playoffs.This is the nature of baseball, a sport defined by its randomness and improbability. While this aspect of baseball can be maddening, it is also the reason why we continue to tune in every night. We don&#8217;t want to miss out on an incredible comeback story, and to participate in a season that many have proclaimed over to potentially turn into something noteworthy. And if they&#8217;re lucky enough, the Blue Jays just might do it.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Acquire SP Francisco Liriano from Pittsburgh Pirates</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/01/blue-jays-acquire-francisco-liriano/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Aug 2016 21:17:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Hutchison]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fransisco Liriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Harold Ramirez]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[After a couple of seemingly innocuous, if useful depth moves, the Blue Jays have acquired a legitimate front of the rotation type of arm. As first reported by Robert Murray, the Blue Jays have picked up Francisco Liriano and two prospects (via Davidi) from the Pittsburgh Pirates: Source: Blue Jays get Liriano from Pirates &#8212; Robert [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a couple of seemingly innocuous, if useful depth moves, the Blue Jays have acquired a legitimate front of the rotation type of arm. As first reported by Robert Murray, the Blue Jays have picked up Francisco Liriano and two prospects (via Davidi) from the Pittsburgh Pirates:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Blue Jays get Liriano from Pirates</p>
<p>&mdash; Robert Murray (@RobertMurrayFRS) <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertMurrayFRS/status/760215885340561408">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> also getting two prospects from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/760217259167981568">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Also: Harold Ramirez AA OF to Toronto with Liriano</p>
<p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/760220158459871232">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>With the prospect of moving Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen, the Blue Jays top of the rotation was threatening to take a major hit, as Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. That void has been filled. Liriano isn&#8217;t having a great season, with an ERA of 5.46 in 21 starts, but he is still striking out hitters at a nice rate of 9.1 K/9, and is a groundball machine with at a rate of 51.9%. He is also coming off three straight seasons of ERAs at 3.38 or below. The issue currently is Liriano&#8217;s walk rate, which sits at a career high 5.46 per nine innings. However, that seems like something of an aberration. Reuniting him with Martin also seems like a very promising move.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Liriano’s ERA w/ Russell Martin Catching: 2.92</p>
<p>Liriano’s ERA w/ All Other Catchers: 4.28</p>
<p>Just sayin&#39;</p>
<p>&mdash; Matt Gwin (@Matt_Gwin) <a href="https://twitter.com/Matt_Gwin/status/760220692260323328">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>This seems to continue a theme for the Jays recently, of acquiring pitchers whose walk rates have spiked, but have not come with a dip in stuff. Take a look at Liriano&#8217;s velocity and movement charts below. The velo is exactly the same, and the movement is extremely similar. There&#8217;s a lot to hope for here.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-5090" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-7.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (7)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
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<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-8.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-5093" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-8.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (8)" width="952" height="323" /></a></p>
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<p>Liriano is also signed through 2017 for another $13M, which gives the Jays a nice replacement for pending free agent R.A. Dickey. In fact, this now means the 2017 rotation is full (barring injury) with Stroman, Happ, Estrada, Liriano, and Sanchez. That&#8217;s very helpful for a team facing so many free agent decisions.</p>
<p>Harold Ramirez was the #9 prospect (according to MLB Pipeline) in the Pirates system prior to the deal. He is a 21 year old outfielder who is currently playing very well in Double-A Altoona, hitting .305/.354/.401, despite being 3.4 years younger than the average age for his level. He has a nice feel for contact, with a career .304/.362/.409 line despite always being young. He apparently has a very weak arm though, so despite solid speed and defensive instincts, may be forced to LF. He still seems like a nice get for Toronto.</p>
<p>Of course, with Liriano and prospects coming to Toronto, there must have been something substantial going the other direction. As first reported by our own Gideon Turk, Drew Hutchison is heading off to the Steel City.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Drew Hutchison going to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash">#Pirates</a> in Liriano trade.</p>
<p>&mdash; (((Gideon Turk))) (@GideonTurk) <a href="https://twitter.com/GideonTurk/status/760218364119814144">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>Hutchison entered 2015 with so much hype following a successful finish to the 2014 season. However, he was terrible in 2015, pitching to a 5.57 ERA, and eventually losing his rotation spot when the Blue Jays acquired David Price. His two starts this season weren&#8217;t a lot better, as he gave up seven runs in 12 2/3 innings of work. He has pitched well at AAA Buffalo, however, working to a 3.26 ERA with 110 strikeouts and only 35 walks in 112 innings. There is still clearly some upside there, as he he won&#8217;t be a free agent until after the 2018 or 2019 season (depending on how much service time he gets until the end of the season).</p>
<p>All in all, this is a good move for the Blue Jays. They lose a solid but expendable starting pitcher, and add one with top of the rotation upside. They also fill a hole for next year&#8217;s rotation, allowing them to focus money on fixing up the offense. Yes, this probably means Sanchez is officially ticketed for the bullpen, but given that was likely to happen regardless, this is a great way for Toronto to cover itself.</p>
<p>It has been a very solid trade deadline for the Jays, who needed not large moves (though Liriano qualifies), but minor tweaks. For the first time in a long time, the Blue Jays are also showing some financial flex, adding Upton, Feldman, and now Liriano while taking on additional salary. This is very encouraging, especially with the increased attendance.</p>
<p>Well done, Messrs. Shapiro and Atkins.</p>
<p><strong>Update</strong></p>
<p>The clubs have announced the deal, and joining Ramirez as the second prospect in the deal will be catcher Reese McGuire, the 14th overall selection in the 2013 MLB Draft, and a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball. McGuire is known specifically for his defense, as his bat has struggled throughout he tenure in the minors. In 77 games for AA Altoona this season, he has hit just .259/.337/.346. Those numbers are clearly not where you want them to be, but thankfully the path to the majors for great defensive catchers is a bit easier, even if they can&#8217;t hit. From <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28319" target="_blank">BP&#8217;s top 101 prospect list</a>, is the following:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;McGuire lacks the offensive upside of the other catching prospects on the 101, but he’s by far the best defender of the group. He struggled with the bat in the Florida State League last year, but he offers a plus defensive projection behind the plate with a plus arm and advanced receiving skills. He’s a good athlete for a catcher as well, and may grow into more game power over time. His stock is down until he starts to hit a bit more, but the glove alone gives him a good shot at a major-league career, even if it’s the one-day-a-week kind.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>You have to like this deal for the Blue Jays. It comes out to Drew Hutchison for Liriano, McGuire, and Ramirez, a deal made possible by the Blue Jays taking on additional salary. I&#8217;ll let Baseball America&#8217;s J.J. Cooper sum it up:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Needless to say, I LOVE this deal for the Blue Jays. If they released Liriano tonight, I&#39;d love it for them.</p>
<p>&mdash; JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) <a href="https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/status/760237148016488449">August 1, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>Let&#8217;s play some meaningful baseball, shall we?</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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