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	<title>Toronto &#187; PECOTA</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>The 30th Percentile Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/28/the-30th-percentile-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Feb 2017 15:13:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9090</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In this space last week, I wrote about what Baseball Prospectus&#8217; projection system PECOTA thinks would happen to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017 if their players would hit their 90th percentile projections. That best case scenario looked like a 119-43 record, compared to the 81-81 record the normal PECOTA projected for the 2017 Blue Jays. Today, I [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this space last week, I <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/20/the-90th-percentile-blue-jays/" target="_blank">wrote about</a> what Baseball Prospectus&#8217; projection system PECOTA thinks would happen to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017 if their players would hit their 90th percentile projections. That best case scenario looked like a 119-43 record, compared to the 81-81 record the normal PECOTA projected for the 2017 Blue Jays. Today, I want to look at what were to occur if the Blue Jays were to play at their 30th percentile projections over the course of the season. PECOTA&#8217;s lowest projection available is 10th percentile, but rather than look at the absolute worst case scenarios, I think a more constructive exercise would be to examine the more reasonable downside the Blue Jays roster could hit. We&#8217;ll start with the batters:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-27-at-5.32.17-PM.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-9175" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-27-at-5.32.17-PM-1024x633.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-02-27 at 5.32.17 PM" width="500" height="309" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">In the normal PECOTA values, this lineup is projected to be worth 34.4 wins above a replacement player. This 30th percentile version of the team is projected for less than half of that, at 15.4 WARP. That&#8217;s a pretty reasonable drop when we are talking about all 13 position players performing way below what is expected of them. What is interesting is the particular cases that actually seem possible. Nobody expects Jarrod Saltalamacchia to be worth negative 1.6 wins in 2017, for no reason more than he wouldn&#8217;t be on the team for too long if he was performing at such a poor level. However, some of these scenarios could happen.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">It isn&#8217;t hard to imagine Josh Donaldson sliding down to just 4.4 WARP this season. That would be a decrease of only one win from 2016, and given his age and the fact that he is currently sidelined with a calf injury (something that can nag for a while), that doesn&#8217;t seem so crazy. Likewise, the same can be said for Jose Bautista. The 30th percentile projection is still a huge increase from Bautista&#8217;s 2016 production (.270 TAv, 0.5 WARP), and now that we&#8217;ve seen one year of decline from Jose, another one like it isn&#8217;t very farfetched. In fact, it actually seems generous to project Bautista for 604 plate appearances after he has managed more than that in just two of his previous five seasons.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Another guy on that list who can easily &#8220;reach&#8221; his 30th percentile projections would be Kevin Pillar. His main tool is his defense, a skill that can vary in the numbers from year to year, even if the actual talent level of the player doesn&#8217;t change at all. For Pillar, that means he can continue to put up stellar defense, but because of the makeup of current defensive statistics, it is very possible that he can provide little to no &#8220;value&#8221; in the field in 2017. Combine that with what has so far been an entirely lacklustre career offensively, seeing him shrink down to being worth just 1.1 wins in 2017 is a thought that shouldn&#8217;t be so fictional. In fact, in 2016, he was worth just 0.9 wins with a .232 TAv, while hitting 7 home runs in 584 plate appearances, numbers that aren&#8217;t so far off from his 30th percentile projection.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">This is how the pitching side of things looks:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-12.54.38-AM.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-9181" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-28-at-12.54.38-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-02-28 at 12.54.38 AM" width="500" height="340" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">As mentioned last week, the PECOTA projections are somewhat broken by four of the five Blue Jays starters because of the nature of how they achieve success, and thus these numbers look especially awful in the starting rotation, looking more like 10th or 20th percentile projections instead. What that means for this exercise though, is that things can get truly bad for this club in the coming year, and we wouldn&#8217;t be searching for answers on how and why that occurred.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Take Marco Estrada, for example. We all know that his success over the past two years is real and can be attributed to a few things, chief among them his &#8220;rising&#8221; fastball. But the projections still see a guy with no stuff and mediocre peripherals. So what would happen if hitters finally realized how to adjust well enough to Estrada relative to other pitchers? Well, replacement level pitching is certainly a possibility.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">For Happ, the same line of thinking can be followed. He has had success by mixing his pitches and working off of different fastballs. Again, that&#8217;s closer to trickery than what we would define as natural talent. Trickery can be solved, and Happ reverting to an older version of his pre-Pirate self would be the result of that, not something the Blue Jays would like to see happen in 2017.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">When it comes to Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, the reasoning doesn&#8217;t even need to be so out there. They rely heavily on ground balls, and ground balls can decide one day that they don&#8217;t want to go to infielders when they can go into the outfield. A few more ground balls getting through and all of a sudden, the two young starters who look to be anchoring the Blue Jays for the latter half of this decade, become liabilities in the rotation.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">The reliever stats are a good reminder, if nothing else, that relievers are incredibly volatile and anything can happen when each player is only throwing 60 or so innings in a year. However, the strategy to building a good bullpen is to try to lower those odds as much as possible, something Ross Atkins did this winter by bringing in vets J.P. Howell and Joe Smith to complement the already formidable trio of Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli, and Joe Biagini. But, remember that all of those players come with risks, and they could all have down seasons in 2017. Roberto Osuna was hurting in the playoffs last year, which may be a sign of overuse. Jason Grilli is 40-years-old, meaning that every time he gets on that mound it is a blessing.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">This version of the Blue Jays pitchers would be worth a projected 0.5 wins, bringing this team up to just about 66 wins in 2017. Is that likely to happen? No. But will some of the players on these lists underperform their projections? Yes, and when they do, it shouldn&#8217;t come as a surprise. Baseball is a game of mystery, and anything can happen. With some of these guys, that anything isn&#8217;t even so mysterious, and all we can do is hope that these drop offs in talent don&#8217;t happen for a while.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>Lead Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The 90th Percentile Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/20/the-90th-percentile-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/20/the-90th-percentile-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Feb 2017 11:50:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9068</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections for the 2017 season earlier this month, and in the aggregate, they weren&#8217;t so kind to the Toronto Blue Jays, projecting an 81-81 record for a team that has made it to the ALCS in two straight seasons. Mike Passador already broke down the individual projections in this same [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections for the 2017 season earlier this month, and in the aggregate, they weren&#8217;t so kind to the Toronto Blue Jays, projecting an 81-81 record for a team that has made it to the ALCS in two straight seasons. Mike Passador <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/08/what-does-pecota-have-to-say-about-the-blue-jays/" target="_blank">already broke down</a> the individual projections in this same space a couple of weeks ago, so I won&#8217;t do that here. What I do want to do is look at how the Blue Jays would perform if they were to all hit their 90th percentile projections, and not the 50th percentile projections PECOTA is based on. Darius Asurion did this <a href="http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/14/the-90th-percentile-cubs/" target="_blank">same exercise</a> with the Cubs last week at BP Wrigleyville, and it led to the PECOTA projection going from 91 wins to 127 wins. Despite that clearly not being realistic, it did provide an interesting lens with which to look at these numbers as they try to predict what will occur in the 2017 season for the Blue Jays. Let&#8217;s get started. First, the top projections for the Blue Jays hitters.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-19-at-10.30.56-PM.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-9077" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-19-at-10.30.56-PM-1024x619.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-02-19 at 10.30.56 PM" width="500" height="302" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left">This group would tally a total of 47 WARP, as opposed to the 34.4 WARP the Blue Jays position players are projected to be worth according to PECOTA. That is actually a pretty modest increase, and that can be attributed to the fact that there just isn&#8217;t all that much risk in the Blue Jays lineup this season. That can be interpreted in a few different fashions, but I think that means the Blue Jays front office has done a pretty good job assembling this offensive core.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Travis&#8217; 90th percentile projection has him performing for a full season near the level he did in his abbreviated rookie season in 2015. That is hard to see given he has been injured in both seasons he has spent with the Blue Jays, but if he stays healthy, a five win season shouldn&#8217;t be out of the question. His PECOTA projection has him at 2.4, but that would have him see drop-offs in virtually every offensive category from both of his MLB seasons, something that doesn&#8217;t seem all that likely. Travis&#8217; 2.7 WARP difference between PECOTA and his 90th percentile projection is one of the larger on this list, and a full breakout season from him could go a long way in helping the Blue Jays.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Another standout offensively is Kendrys Morales&#8217; projection, but not in a good way like above. Morales&#8217; best scenario according to this lands at him at just 3.3 WARP, whereas his PECOTA projection has him at 1.5 WARP. For comparisons sake, Edwin Encarnacion is at 3.4 and 5.7, respectively. Now, I&#8217;m not here to hate on the Morales signing, but according to these numbers, Encarnacion&#8217;s midline projection is more valuable than the best case scenario for Morales. That&#8217;s not fantastic.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">The last part of those numbers I want to mention is the first base and left field platoon scenario. Some combination of Justin Smoak, Steve Pearce, Ezequiel Carrera, and Melvin Upton Jr. will likely man those two  positions every day, and if all goes perfectly according to the 90th percentile projections, that group will amass a total of 8.8 WARP, a total the Blue Jays will be ecstatic to get. On the other hand, PECOTA&#8217;s 50th percentile projection has the group at less than 25% of that number, with just 2.1 WARP. These two positions are the only places the Blue Jays really decided to risk it with in 2017, and it isn&#8217;t an over-exaggeration to say that they could make or break the season for Toronto.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Now, the pitchers.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><em><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-20-at-12.36.45-AM.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-9081" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/Screen-Shot-2017-02-20-at-12.36.45-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-02-20 at 12.36.45 AM" width="500" height="337" /></a></em></p>
<p style="text-align: left">According to that set of data, the Blue Jays pitchers would provide 22.7 WARP in 2017 if they were all to perform to their 90th percentile projections. If that seems extremely low, don&#8217;t worry, you are correct. PECOTA currently only has the group pegged to put up 8.4 WARP in 2017, so the jump of 14.3 wins is still pretty significant, but as you have no doubt seen already, PECOTA isn&#8217;t too kind to the Blue Jays pitching staff. That is because arguably the three best starters on the team, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, and Aaron Sanchez are all players who break PECOTA, in that their stuff doesn&#8217;t translate to the raw numbers it likes. However, this doesn&#8217;t mean they aren&#8217;t good, and thus the club&#8217;s pitching projections are always going to lean heavily on the pessimistic side.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Problems with those three pitchers aside, these numbers do provide an interesting look into what could happen if all goes right. Francisco Liriano, despite coming into 2017 as either the fourth or fifth starter on this team, has the potential to be the best on the staff. Before his rough half season with the Pirates in 2016, Liriano was one of the more dependable pitchers in the game, and he seemed to have found that success again last season once he donned the Blue and White for the first time. If he returns to form and the other Blue Jays starters do what they have shown they are capable of doing, this team will once again be towards the front of the league in starters ERA and other statistics.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">In the bullpen, perhaps the most interesting player is Joe Biagini. His projection assumes he will receive three starts in 2017, but given that isn&#8217;t likely, the idea of him getting 80+ innings out of the bullpen is very intriguing. He has the stamina to start as he has been doing it his entire career, and John Gibbons using him in a multi inning relief role is an idea that has been thrown around plenty online. For a group of guys that has some uncertainty in the sixth and seventh spots in the bullpen, relying on Biagini a bit more than one would normally do is a smart tactical move John Gibbons could, and hopefully will make a few times this season.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Given a replacement level team wins 50 games in a major league season, this iteration of the Blue Jays would walk away with a nice 119 win season. That won&#8217;t be happening, but some of these performances do seem attainable. All five starters could realistically hit their 90th percentile numbers, if not more, and hitters like Devon Travis and Jose Bautista could as well if they are able to return to health. The real games start in a few weeks, and then these numbers won&#8217;t mean anything anymore. Until then, this will have to do.</p>
<p style="text-align: left"><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What does PECOTA have to say about the Blue Jays?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/08/what-does-pecota-have-to-say-about-the-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Feb 2017 11:58:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Draft]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8948</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With spring training just around the corner and the bullpen finally taking form we&#8217;re starting to get a real sense of how the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays will look come Opening Day. Part of the fun of the offseason’s final days is looking through the myriad projections that find their way onto our screens and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With spring training just around the corner and the bullpen finally taking form we&#8217;re starting to get a real sense of how the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays will look come Opening Day. Part of the fun of the offseason’s final days is looking through the myriad projections that find their way onto our screens and into our hearts. Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections yesterday, and had some interesting things to say about the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>(<em>Ed. note: before we jump in, it’s important to note that the numbers below represent PECOTA’s 50<sup>th</sup> percentile forecast. Things look increasingly sunny in the higher percentiles, so it isn’t all doom and gloom- we’re looking at the median, so PECOTA gives the players a 50% probability of outperforming these projections</em>)</p>
<h2>Team Level</h2>
<p>While an early morning edition had the Jays at 82-80, behind the 90-72 Red Sox and 84-78 Rays, the ticking clock saw Toronto’s projected record drop to 81-81; tied with the Yankees. That’s a bit of a harsh evaluation of the team, but PECOTA does seem to view the Jays in a mostly positive light.</p>
<p>To wit, they’re projected to score 767 runs. While that’s only eight more than they scored last season, it would be good enough for fourth in PECOTA’s 2017 AL (behind Cleveland’s 798, Seattle’s 770 and Houston’s 768) and put them tied with the Cubs for fifth overall. As for the mighty Red Sox? PECOTA projects 750 runs, a drop from last year’s 878 that calls to mind the Jays’ own drop from 2015 (891) to 2016 (759). Here’s hoping.</p>
<p>Their team OBP of .332 would be good for third in both the AL and MLB, behind Cleveland and Boston, and their TAv of .266 trails only Houston at .268 and the Dodgers and Cubs at .267. Safe to say that PECOTA is projecting a strong offensive showing from Toronto’s new look roster.</p>
<p>Given the mastery of Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki, it’s no surprise that the team rates highly by FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average). Their FRAA of 27.0 would be good for seventh in all of MLB, though that number is closer to the middle of the pack than it is to Seattle’s whopping 59.2 and second-best LA’s 41.0.</p>
<p>So the Jays are projected to have a top five offense and a top ten defense, yet are a .500 ballclub. That’s because PECOTA clearly does not like Toronto’s pitching staff.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitching</h2>
<p>We know all about Toronto transforming their identity from 2015’s bangers and mashers to 2016’s elite pitching staff. To see them projected so harshly here is a bit of a surprise, though the picture clears up a bit when acknowledge that PECOTA uses comparable players and major league equivalencies of minor league stats.</p>
<p>Given the youth of the staff’s former best friends, the mid-career renaissance of JA Happ and the perpetual projection-buster that is Marco Estrada, it’s not all that surprising to see Toronto’s pitching projected for a step back. With the exception of Francisco Liriano, any projections relying on career baselines and player comparables rest on relatively shaky ground.</p>
<p>The four returning starters combined for 11.8 PWARP last season and are projected to total just 4.2 this season. Even acknowledging room for some regression, that pales in comparison to what we know this group is capable of. It should also be noted that PECOTA projects between 28 and 31 starts for all five members of the rotation, which would point to some good fortune in the health department.</p>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez:</strong> <em>10-9, 4.40 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 139/75 K/BB, 1.1 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Marcus Stroman:</strong> <em>11-9, 4.11 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 162/64 K/BB, 2.0 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Marco Estrada:</strong> <em>10-10, 4.84 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 147/69 K/BB, 0.2 WARP</em><br />
<strong>JA Happ:</strong> <em>10-10, 4.51 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 147/62 K/BB, 0.9 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Francisco Liriano:</strong> <em>10-9, 4.27 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 177/86 K/BB, 1.4 WARP</em></p>
<h2>Bullpen</h2>
<p>With the signings of Joe Smith and JP Howell, the Jays suddenly have five of seven (please lord, not eight) spots in the bullpen filled and ready. They’ll be led, as always, by Roberto Osuna. Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini will join Howell, Smith, and some combination of Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera, Bo Schultz, Danny Barnes and Glenn Sparkman. It should be noted that recent talk has <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/walker-jays-plan-to-stretch-out-biagini~1046496" target="_blank">Joe Biagini getting stretched out</a>. He has a history of starting in the minors and has a terrific pitch mix, so he makes plenty of sense as a high leverage guy who can handle multiple innings or as a potential spot starter. But alas, PECOTA doesn’t feel too great about the bullpen either.</p>
<p><strong>Roberto Osuna:</strong> <em>60 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 63/18 K/BB, 0.8 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Joe Biagini:</strong> <em>70 IP, 4.27 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 52/27 K/BB, 0.4 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Jason Grilli:</strong> <em>50 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 60/24 K/BB, 0.2 WARP</em><br />
<strong>JP Howell:</strong> <em>45 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 38/16 K/BB, 0.0 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Joe Smith:</strong> <em>50 IP, 4.61 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 42/18 K/BB, 0.1 WARP</em></p>
<p>The projections seem to dislike guys who don&#8217;t bring much velocity to the table as Howell and Smith join Estrada as high eighties tossers who get outs in the field. The projections are also quite rough on Osuna, who has played much closer to some of his higher percentile projections in his first two seasons.</p>
<h2>Offense</h2>
<p>The Jays&#8217; top five players by WARP all handle the bats, and there&#8217;s no surprise at number one.</p>
<p><strong>Josh Donaldson</strong><em><strong>:</strong> .278/.367/.506, 31 HR, .299 TAv, 5.2 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Russell Martin:</strong> <em>.236/.337/.407, 19 HR, .264 TAv, 4.0 WARP<br />
</em><strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong><em><strong>:</strong> .270/.346/.463, 22 HR, .277 TAv, 3.4 WARP</em><br />
<strong>Jose Bautista:</strong> .253/.370/.488, 31 HR, .297 TAv, 3.2 WARP<br />
<strong>Devon Travis:</strong> <em>.276/.327/.434, 16 HR, .264 TAv, 2.4 WARP</em>.</p>
<p>Donaldson&#8217;s projected WARP would be good for 11<sup>th</sup> in all of baseball; he&#8217;s pretty good at this. Somewhat surprisingly, Russell Martin is second on the list coming off a disappointing season that was haunted by nagging injuries. If the training staff can help keep Tulowitzki out there, expect some top flight numbers out of the shortstop position. PECOTA has Tulo making 542 plate appearances coming off a year where he made 544. A third year of good health is essential if the Jays want to outperform PECOTA&#8217;s record.</p>
<p>Considering Joey Bats was worth only 0.5 WARP last season, that’s a heck of a bounceback year. Perhaps more interestingly is the fact that Bautista is projected to play 70% of the games in right and another 15% at DH. That’s a bit more in the field than you’d like, but if he can deliver those numbers with the bat it’ll be worth the defensive pains.</p>
<p>For Devon Travis, the most pressing matter is always health. PECOTA has him slotted for 611 PA’s, which would be a dream come true for fans considering the promising second baseman has been kept to 238 and 432 PA’s in his first two seasons. A full year of Travis at second would be a tremendous boost; beyond his own production it would allow Darwin Barney and/or Ryan Goins to spell Donaldson and Tulowitzki more frequently.</p>
<h2>The Rest</h2>
<p>There are some clear position battles at first base and in left field, and obviously Kendrys Morales is someone we&#8217;re all curious about, not to mention the rest of the bullpen, but we can&#8217;t give this all away! If you want to see the rest (and the 10-90th percentiles for all of these players), <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/subscriptions" target="_blank">subscribe to Baseball Prospectus</a>! If you use the promo code &#8220;PECOTA17&#8243; you&#8217;ll get a 17% discount.</p>
<h2>Extra Fun</h2>
<p>One of PECOTA&#8217;s most fun tools is the player comparables, which are sure to turn up some interesting parallels. Bautista&#8217;s top three are Lance Berkman, Gary Sheffield and Carlos Beltran, and Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s third comparable is Derek Jeter. Someone should tell Buck Martinez, who might be able to mention the two in the same sentence if he really works at it. Roberto Osuna is in some good company, with his top two being Jose Fernandez and Chris Sale. Osuna&#8217;s five, six and seven are Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strausburg and Madison Bumgarner. That&#8217;s uh, not too bad. Are we sure he should be a reliever?</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman also has some very nice names with Sonny Gray, Ubaldo Jimenez (circa 2010), and Jon Lester in his top five. In a cruel twist of fate, Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s third comparable is none other than Stroman himself. #RIPStroChez</p>
<p>Among other fun notes is that Rowdy Tellez has been tabbed for an eight game stint at first base, while PECOTA has A.J. Jimenez and Michael Ohlman as the two primary backup catchers. Jarrod Saltalamacchia will probably win the backup catcher job and Juan Graterol certainly has a better crack at the roster than Ohlman, but we’ll see what happens.</p>
<p>PECOTA is a projection system, not a prediction system, and is pretty conservative in its evaluations, but Toronto management would likely be quite pleased with the offensive projections and rest easy knowing that their pitchers are capable of busting the metrics. At the moment it’s good fun to see where the Blue Jays are predicted to finish according to the multitude of smart baseball minds doling out projections. We’ll be on to real baseball soon enough.</p>
<p>Once again, if you want to see the rest of the projections for not just the Blue Jays, but the entire league (in an easy to browse spreadsheet if you want), <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/subscriptions" target="_blank">subscribe to Baseball Prospectus</a> with the promo code &#8220;PECOTA17&#8243; and you&#8217;ll have it all!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Intro to BP Stats Using Blue Jays Players: True Average (TAv)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/12/intro-to-bp-stats-using-blue-jays-players-true-average-tav/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/12/intro-to-bp-stats-using-blue-jays-players-true-average-tav/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Apr 2016 11:02:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Bradburn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Intro to BP Stats]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PECOTA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TAv]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[True Average]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1359</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This Toronto Blue Jays based site for Baseball Propsectus is still in its infancy. While the articles here have shown a distinct professionalism and belonging, we&#8217;re still a rookie in the BP Family. We&#8217;re a bit like Trevor Story; showing that we belong here in a small sample, but really striving for sustained excellence and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This Toronto Blue Jays based site for Baseball Propsectus is still in its infancy. While the articles here have shown a distinct professionalism and belonging, we&#8217;re still a rookie in the BP Family. We&#8217;re a bit like <a href="http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/4/10/11395614/trevor-story-colorado-rockies-home-runs-small-sample-sizes-be-damned" target="_blank">Trevor Story</a>; showing that we belong here in a small sample, but really striving for sustained excellence and respect.</p>
<p>As readers, you may have noticed some new statistics and acronyms that you don&#8217;t always see on other Blue Jays blogs. A few examples include WARP, Tav, and DRA. Explanations of those stats can sometimes be long, difficult to find, and even harder to parse. That&#8217;s why this series will undertake explaining the (possibly) new-to-you stats you&#8217;ll see regularly on the site. However, it won&#8217;t just explain the math; you can find that elsewhere and that&#8217;s no fun. Instead, I&#8217;ll put it into context using Blue Jays players.</p>
<p>Today&#8217;s undertaking will be True Average or TAv for short, which is arguably the most important statistic on Baseball Prospectus, it is certainly the most important stat for evaluating a hitter. It&#8217;s goal is to consolidate all of a player&#8217;s batting value into one number, scaled to look like batting average. Straight from the BP glossary, True Average is adjusted, &#8220;for park and league quality.&#8221; Therefore, every player&#8217;s bench mark is the same. In short, there&#8217;s no need to be weary of numbers at Coors Field, or inflate numbers at Petco Park; that work is done for you. The league average mark is set at .260. It&#8217;s worth noting though, that True Average doesn&#8217;t incorporate a player&#8217;s contributions on the basepaths.</p>
<p>For the math-inclined folk, it&#8217;s a pretty simple premise. You take a player&#8217;s runs above average (RAA) &#8212; which is dependent on the situation of each plate appearance. Then, make it a rate stat by dividing by the player&#8217;s plate appearances and multiply by a constant to adjust to the league average. Then, just add your baseline to make it look like batting average. The formula, then, looks a bit like this: <em>0.260 + (RAA/PA) </em>x<em> 0.9.</em></p>
<p>To better understand how RAA works, think of it like this: with a home run in one plate appearance, a player can produce anywhere between one (a solo shot) and four (a grand slam) runs. By R/PA, a grand slam is worth four, no matter how many outs there already are. However, depending on the situation of the game (the base-out state to be more precise), the run expectancy changes. So, by RAA/PA, a home run with nobody out and the bases loaded is worth 1.718 runs as your team was technically &#8216;expected&#8217; to score 2.282 runs in that situation anyways (4 &#8211; 2.282 = 1.718). It&#8217;s a bit more complicated than that though, as the base-out state immediately returns to nobody on-base, nobody out. In that situation, the team is expected to score 0.461 runs. So, the player contributed four actual runs, the chance to add 0.461 more runs, all in a situation that was supposed to garner 2.282 runs. Therefore, the player who hit the grand slam actually contributed 2.179 runs (4 + 0.461 &#8211; 2.282 = 2.179).</p>
<p>Now that you are well-equipped to start calculating your own TAv while sitting right at the bar, lets use some Blue Jays examples for some context.</p>
<h3>The Above Average</h3>
<p>For sample size purposes, we&#8217;re going to stick with the 2015 stats for now.</p>
<p>There was a dead-heat for the best hitter of the Blue Jays 2015 season, and it actually ended up a tie. Both Edwin Encarnacion AND Josh Donaldson had a .324 TAv, and placed ninth among all hitters in baseball with at least 400 plate appearances. That&#8217;s .064 higher than league average.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s where TAv gets most useful: Encarnacion and Donaldson line up comparably despite getting there by slightly different means. While the home run tallies were nearly identical (39 and 41 respectively), Donaldson had 58 more total bases than Encarnacion. That could, however, be attributable to the 87 fewer plate appearances that Encarnacion had. Despite fewer plate appearances, Encarnacion took slightly more walks and struck out 35 fewer times.</p>
<p>Despite lining up nearly identically in TAv, the routes taken there are independent. We can look at this two ways. First, TAv gives us a means to equate player value across multiple avenues; not just simple counting stats that don&#8217;t line up. Second, TAv fails to tell the entire story. I would caution against the second opinion, since no statistic tells the full story anyways, but we&#8217;ll revisit that on the WARP explainer at another time.</p>
<h3>The Average</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays didn&#8217;t actually have a player who was perfectly average last season. However, the closest &#8212; believe it or not &#8212; was Kevin Pillar at .257. That being said, that is well within one standard deviation of the average .260 mark.</p>
<p>Pillar isn&#8217;t considered by many to be a league average hitter. However, in 2015 he was. And you can say so with confidence as long as you have TAv on your side. For posterity, Pillar is sandwiched between Johnny Giavotella and Brock &#8216;All-Star&#8217; Holt on the TAv leaderboard.</p>
<p>It is worth noting at this time that league average does not denote &#8216;replacement level.&#8217; Replacement level is another set-point, quite a bit lower than league average. For instance, if you could &#8216;replace&#8217; all your bad players with league average players, your team would be excellent. Instead, &#8216;replacement level&#8217; is a player that could be picked up on waivers, promoted from Triple-A, or signed as a free agent. From his TAv and base-running, Pillar contributed 22.3 VORP to the Blue Jays in 2015. If held by itself (without his defense), that would contribute roughly 2.2 WARP.</p>
<h3>The Below Average</h3>
<p>Poor Ryan Goins. At .238 TAv last year, he was the worst Blue Jays hitter with at least 400 plate appearances.</p>
<p>Sure, Goins is a below average hitter, but he still contributed half a win by WARP last year. It&#8217;s important to keep in mind then that when TAv is being used, the author is only evaluating hitting value. While some authors value offense more greatly, it is fallacious to pass TAv off as a player&#8217;s one contribution to the game. Therefore, TAv is extremely useful in assembling a batting order, but useless at figuring out where to place your fielders.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re curious, Jose Reyes was barely better at .241 TAv.</p>
<p>There you have it. Not only can you scribble your calculations on the napkins and coasters of the Loose Moose, but you know what TAv actually looks like now &#8212; it&#8217;s personified.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How the Jays Position Players Compare to the AL East</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/01/comparing-the-al-east-position-players/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/01/comparing-the-al-east-position-players/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Apr 2016 13:18:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Offense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PECOTA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=909</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is no doubt that the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays are a better team than they were at the start of last season. Despite winning the AL East by six games with a record of 93-69 and leading the majors in runs scored, it wasn’t until the second half of the season after the Jays [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is no doubt that the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays are a better team than they were at the start of last season. Despite winning the AL East by six games with a record of 93-69 and leading the majors in runs scored, it wasn’t until the second half of the season after the Jays had acquired Troy Tulowitzki and David Price that they lived up to their potential. Up until that point, they had underachieved &#8211; as evidenced by their Pythagorean record of 102-60. Though there is no doubt that adding an ace to their rotation helped propel the Jays to their first playoff berth in 22 years, it was their near-historic offense that made them the team to beat. But this is 2016, so with the regular season set to begin this Sunday and the Jays poised to defend their championship title, let’s take a look at how their lineup stacks up against the rest of the American League East, broken down by position.</p>
<p><em>Note: the following 2016 projections are based on PECOTA and are current as of April 1st. A glossary of pertinent terms are included at the end of this article.</em></p>
<p><strong>First Base:</strong> Chris Davis (BAL), Hanley Ramirez (BOS), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Logan Morrison (TB), Chris Colabello (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="83"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="37"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Davis</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="51">.255</td>
<td width="37">83</td>
<td width="42">37</td>
<td width="45">100</td>
<td width="41">3</td>
<td width="51">.333</td>
<td width="50">.518</td>
<td width="49">.296</td>
<td width="60">27.6</td>
<td width="63">2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Ramirez</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.272</td>
<td width="37">71</td>
<td width="42">20</td>
<td width="45">73</td>
<td width="41">13</td>
<td width="51">.339</td>
<td width="50">.454</td>
<td width="49">.280</td>
<td width="60">17.2</td>
<td width="63">1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Teixeira</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="51">.236</td>
<td width="37">69</td>
<td width="42">27</td>
<td width="45">79</td>
<td width="41">2</td>
<td width="51">.328</td>
<td width="50">.452</td>
<td width="49">.276</td>
<td width="60">13.6</td>
<td width="63">1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Morrison</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="51">.242</td>
<td width="37">64</td>
<td width="42">19</td>
<td width="45">69</td>
<td width="41">6</td>
<td width="51">.318</td>
<td width="50">.417</td>
<td width="49">.268</td>
<td width="60">8.7</td>
<td width="63">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Colabello</td>
<td width="52">60</td>
<td width="51">.261</td>
<td width="37">61</td>
<td width="42">22</td>
<td width="45">72</td>
<td width="41">2</td>
<td width="51">.322</td>
<td width="50">.453</td>
<td width="49">.276</td>
<td width="60">16.0</td>
<td width="63">1.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Waiver claim Chris Colabello surprised everyone with his breakout 2015 season, posting career highs in nearly every offensive category while offering decent defence at first. Though I expect some regression, I don’t think his numbers last year were a fluke and it would not surprise me if he plays first base more than 60% of the time. Slugger Chris Davis is a standout not only for his homerun power (he hit 47 last season), but also because while is walk ratio is great, his strikeout ratio is quite awful. Though he has a significantly higher VORP than the other four first basement, his higher WARP is negligible in comparison to the others, with the exception of Logan Morrison, who is likely to replace James Loney as the starting first baseman (Had Loney remained with the Rays, he would have been the only starting position player in the AL East with a negative projected VORP and WARP). Ramirez was an absolute bust last season for the Red Sox, playing in just 105 games due to a shoulder injury and posting the worst defensive rating among left fielders. It will be interesting to see if he can experience a bit of a renaissance despite having never played first base.</p>
<p><strong>Second Base:</strong> Jonathan Schoop (BAL), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Starlin Castro (NYY), Logan Forsythe (TB), Ryan Goins (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="77"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="36"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Schoop</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.248</td>
<td width="36">58</td>
<td width="43">22</td>
<td width="46">67</td>
<td width="42">2</td>
<td width="52">.281</td>
<td width="50">.431</td>
<td width="50">.251</td>
<td width="60">9.5</td>
<td width="63">1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Pedroia</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.288</td>
<td width="36">75</td>
<td width="43">12</td>
<td width="46">58</td>
<td width="42">9</td>
<td width="52">.354</td>
<td width="50">.418</td>
<td width="50">.274</td>
<td width="60">26.5</td>
<td width="63">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Castro</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="52">.274</td>
<td width="36">49</td>
<td width="43">11</td>
<td width="46">49</td>
<td width="42">6</td>
<td width="52">.313</td>
<td width="50">.411</td>
<td width="50">.259</td>
<td width="60">12.3</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Forsythe</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="52">.250</td>
<td width="36">73</td>
<td width="43">14</td>
<td width="46">58</td>
<td width="42">8</td>
<td width="52">.327</td>
<td width="50">.390</td>
<td width="50">.265</td>
<td width="60">19.8</td>
<td width="63">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Goins*</td>
<td width="52">25</td>
<td width="52">.241</td>
<td width="36">28</td>
<td width="43">4</td>
<td width="46">29</td>
<td width="42">2</td>
<td width="52">.282</td>
<td width="50">.340</td>
<td width="50">.227</td>
<td width="60">0.2</td>
<td width="63">0.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Dustin Pedroia is the only true star second baseman in the AL East, particularly for his defensive skills. The main barrier to his ability to contribute to the Sox this season is his health – he missed 69 games last season due to injuries. Castro was the one of the only notable offseason acquisitions made by the Yankees, brought over in a trade from the Chicago Cubs to replace Stephen Drew, who left the team as a free agent. Castro began playing second base late last season after losing his job as the everyday short stop due to poor offensive performance. His projected numbers would represent an upswing in his offense over last year. It is to be expected that Ryan Goins would have the lowest projections among second basemen given that he is, essentially, a replacement-level player. Though he is projected to contribute little in terms of runs scored or additional wins, his true value is his defensive prowess which, in combination with Tulowitzki at short, should save the Jays’ pitching staff plenty of runs.</p>
<p><em>*PECOTA projections list Goins as second on the Jays’ second base depth chart behind Devon Travis, with Travis starting at 2B 65% of the time. Projections have not been adjusted to account for the greater percentage of plate appearances that Goins will have due to Travis beginning the season on the DL.</em></p>
<p><strong>Third Base:</strong> Manny Machado (BAL), Travis Shaw (BOS), Chase Headley (NYY), Evan Longoria (TB), Josh Donaldson (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="91"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="32"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="40"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Machado</td>
<td width="51">85</td>
<td width="51">.280</td>
<td width="32">84</td>
<td width="42">22</td>
<td width="45">74</td>
<td width="40">11</td>
<td width="51">.329</td>
<td width="49">.462</td>
<td width="48">.278</td>
<td width="60">26.2</td>
<td width="63">5.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Shaw**</td>
<td width="51">25</td>
<td width="51">.246</td>
<td width="32">41</td>
<td width="42">13</td>
<td width="45">47</td>
<td width="40">1</td>
<td width="51">.318</td>
<td width="49">.417</td>
<td width="48">.257</td>
<td width="60">4.7</td>
<td width="63">0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Headley</td>
<td width="51">85</td>
<td width="51">258</td>
<td width="32">66</td>
<td width="42">15</td>
<td width="45">63</td>
<td width="40">5</td>
<td width="51">.340</td>
<td width="49">.405</td>
<td width="48">.268</td>
<td width="60">16.0</td>
<td width="63">1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Longoria</td>
<td width="51">90</td>
<td width="51">.259</td>
<td width="32">77</td>
<td width="42">26</td>
<td width="45">87</td>
<td width="40">3</td>
<td width="51">.334</td>
<td width="49">.449</td>
<td width="48">.285</td>
<td width="60">30.1</td>
<td width="63">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Donaldson</td>
<td width="51">90</td>
<td width="51">.276</td>
<td width="32">97</td>
<td width="42">30</td>
<td width="45">90</td>
<td width="40">6</td>
<td width="51">.352</td>
<td width="49">.495</td>
<td width="48">.300</td>
<td width="60">40.8</td>
<td width="63">5.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Third base is truly the premier position in the AL East, led by reigning MVP Josh Donaldson and All-Star Manny Machado. While both have similar WARP contributions, Donaldson by far outperforms Machado in terms of runs contributed – an important distinction given that the Jays rely on their offense to win games and Donaldson sees a lot of good pitches to hit given that Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion hit behind him. Also, PECOTA tends to be lower on Donaldson due to his poor early career performances. Once one of the best third basemen in the game, 30 year old Evan Longoria has shown signs of defensive decline over the past two seasons, though he should still provide value on defense. In a surprise move on Thursday, the Boston Red Sox announced that Travis Shaw &#8211; not Pablo Sandoval &#8211; would be their starting third baseman. The move was unexpected, given the Sox&#8217;s financial commitment to Sandoval, but Shaw has outperformed him this spring and is a better defensive option. It is also interesting to note that Machado was the only player in baseball to appear in all 162 games last season.</p>
<p><em>**PECOTA has not yet been updated to reflect the fact that Travis Shaw won the starting job at third base over Pablo Sandoval and thus should have a higher PT%.</em></p>
<p><strong>Short Stop:</strong> J.J. Hardy (BAL), Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Didi Gregorius (NYY), Brad Miller (TB), Troy Tulowitzki (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="85"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="33"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Hardy</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.249</td>
<td width="33">54</td>
<td width="43">16</td>
<td width="45">59</td>
<td width="41">0</td>
<td width="51">.287</td>
<td width="50">.391</td>
<td width="49">.241</td>
<td width="60">5.5</td>
<td width="63">0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Bogaerts</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.282</td>
<td width="33">65</td>
<td width="43">13</td>
<td width="45">69</td>
<td width="41">6</td>
<td width="51">.334</td>
<td width="50">.414</td>
<td width="49">.266</td>
<td width="60">27.6</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Gregorius</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.253</td>
<td width="33">56</td>
<td width="43">11</td>
<td width="45">55</td>
<td width="41">4</td>
<td width="51">.309</td>
<td width="50">.380</td>
<td width="49">.249</td>
<td width="60">12.7</td>
<td width="63">1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Miller</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="51">.257</td>
<td width="33">54</td>
<td width="43">13</td>
<td width="45">51</td>
<td width="41">9</td>
<td width="51">.323</td>
<td width="50">.414</td>
<td width="49">.269</td>
<td width="60">19.7</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Tulowitzki</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="51">.276</td>
<td width="33">80</td>
<td width="43">24</td>
<td width="45">74</td>
<td width="41">1</td>
<td width="51">.349</td>
<td width="50">.478</td>
<td width="49">.292</td>
<td width="60">36.7</td>
<td width="63">4.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>There is no doubt that Troy Tulowitzki is one of the premier players in the game today, and Jays’ fans have yet to fully witness his true talent. After being traded to Toronto on July 28<sup>th</sup>, he played in just 41 games after suffering a cracked shoulder blade in mid-September and, though that was a freak accident, staying healthy has always been a concern for Tulowitzki. A huge defensive upgrade over his predecessor at the position, his offensive production with the Jays represented a slump in comparison to his career numbers, He admitted at the end of the season that he had not yet felt comfortable with his new surroundings. PECOTA projects him to return to form this season – his 36.7 projected VORP is fourth highest among AL East position players (with Bautista and Donaldson sitting in first and second, respectively). Though the others really don’t come close to Tulo&#8217;s offense, Xander Bogaerts is one of the most exciting young players in the league, finishing second to Miguel Cabrera for the AL batting title and being awarded the Silver Slugger at his position. His projected PECOTA stats have him returning to earth just a little after his breakout 2015 season.</p>
<p><strong>Left Field: </strong>Joey Rickard (BAL), Brock Holt (BOS), Brett Gardner (NYY), Desmond Jennings (TB), Michael Saunders (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="83"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Rickard***</td>
<td width="52">30</td>
<td width="51">.245</td>
<td width="34">26</td>
<td width="43">4</td>
<td width="46">21</td>
<td width="42">7</td>
<td width="51">.329</td>
<td width="50">.361</td>
<td width="49">.250</td>
<td width="60">4.1</td>
<td width="63">0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Holt****</td>
<td width="52">25</td>
<td width="51">.279</td>
<td width="34">46</td>
<td width="43">4</td>
<td width="46">39</td>
<td width="42">9</td>
<td width="51">.332</td>
<td width="50">.379</td>
<td width="49">.252</td>
<td width="60">11.1</td>
<td width="63">1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Gardner</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.256</td>
<td width="34">70</td>
<td width="43">10</td>
<td width="46">50</td>
<td width="42">19</td>
<td width="51">.328</td>
<td width="50">.389</td>
<td width="49">.256</td>
<td width="60">15.7</td>
<td width="63">1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Jennings</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.248</td>
<td width="34">53</td>
<td width="43">10</td>
<td width="46">45</td>
<td width="42">16</td>
<td width="51">.322</td>
<td width="50">.394</td>
<td width="49">.263</td>
<td width="60">15.0</td>
<td width="63">1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Saunders</td>
<td width="52">55</td>
<td width="51">.240</td>
<td width="34">54</td>
<td width="43">13</td>
<td width="46">54</td>
<td width="42">10</td>
<td width="51">.319</td>
<td width="50">.401</td>
<td width="49">.261</td>
<td width="60">13.5</td>
<td width="63">0.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Left field is not exactly a position of offensive prowess, and those who play the position in the AL East are relatively evenly matched. Michael Saunders was acquired in a trade from the Seattle Mariners to replace free agent Melky Cabrera, but missed all but nine games of the 2015 season due to injury. Jays’ fans who felt angst over the loss of Ben Revere should note that while Saunders’ projected numbers are not stellar, Revere posted a 10.9 VORP and 0.4 WARP with Toronto last season. Desmond Jennings also missed most of the 2015 season due to a knee injury and is a question mark in terms of how many games he will be able to play this season. Hyun-Soo Kim was expected to make his major league debut this April, having played for the KBO League in South Korea where he was a three-time Golden Glove winner and the 2008 batting champion. However, after struggling this spring, it was announced on Thursday that Kim would not make the Orioles&#8217; Opening Day roster, but had refused a minor league assignment. Meanwhile, it is likely that Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard will take his spot in the lineup after hitting .390/.463/.576 with a 1.039 OPS in 67 plate appearances. After defecting from Cuba, Rusney Castillo was signed by Boston in 2014 for $72.5 million over seven years, creating much hype to which he has yet to live up. As a result, he has lost the starter&#8217;s job to utility man Brock Holt. Holt doesn&#8217;t hit for power, but he does get his bat on the ball with regularity. Brett Gardner, while still a solid player on both sides of the ball, should show some age-related decline, particularly in terms of his speed.</p>
<p><em>***PECOTA has have not yet been updated to reflect the fact that Rickard will likely play LF more than 30% of the time now that Kim is no longer being considered for the job.</em></p>
<p>****<em>PECOTA</em> has<em> not yet been updated to reflect the fact that Holt has won the starting LF position over Rusney Castillo.</em></p>
<p><strong>Centre Field:</strong> Adam Jones (BAL), Jackie Bradley (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY), Kevin Kiermaier (TB), Kevin Pillar (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="83"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Jones</td>
<td width="52">95</td>
<td width="51">.277</td>
<td width="34">93</td>
<td width="42">30</td>
<td width="46">88</td>
<td width="41">8</td>
<td width="51">.314</td>
<td width="50">.475</td>
<td width="49">.277</td>
<td width="60">30.0</td>
<td width="63">2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Bradley</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.245</td>
<td width="34">56</td>
<td width="42">13</td>
<td width="46">54</td>
<td width="41">7</td>
<td width="51">.317</td>
<td width="50">.400</td>
<td width="49">.254</td>
<td width="60">9.1</td>
<td width="63">1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Ellsbury</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="51">.274</td>
<td width="34">84</td>
<td width="42">15</td>
<td width="46">58</td>
<td width="41">33</td>
<td width="51">.330</td>
<td width="50">.413</td>
<td width="49">.265</td>
<td width="60">20.4</td>
<td width="63">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Kiermaier</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.265</td>
<td width="34">76</td>
<td width="42">13</td>
<td width="46">59</td>
<td width="41">19</td>
<td width="51">.309</td>
<td width="50">.416</td>
<td width="49">.263</td>
<td width="60">18.5</td>
<td width="63">5.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Pillar</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="51">.273</td>
<td width="34">62</td>
<td width="42">12</td>
<td width="46">55</td>
<td width="41">19</td>
<td width="51">.307</td>
<td width="50">.414</td>
<td width="49">.259</td>
<td width="60">15.5</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The AL East features a very strong contingency of center fielders, led by the stellar defense and speed of Kevin Kiermaier, who won the Gold Glove in 2015 over Toronto&#8217;s Kevin Pillar. Last season was something of a coming-out party for Pillar, who not only flashed the leather in the field, but performed better than expected offensively, batting .278/.314/.399 with a 22.3 VORP and 3.8 WARP. Though his primary value also lies in his defense and speed, Pillar is slated to be the leadoff hitter despite a less than impressive OBP. Of the five, only Adam Jones hits for power, though his tendency to be a free-swinger along with possible age-related decline led to a career low in batting average last season. Jacoby Ellsbury is also in danger of showing his age, batting just .244 after returning from injury last season. Jackie Bradley was called up last season to replace an injured Hanley Ramirez and despite going on a tear in August, batting .354/.429/.734 with an OBP of 1.163, is unlikely to provide much offensive value over the course of the 2016 season.</p>
<p><strong>Right Field:</strong> Mark Trumbo (BAL), Mookie Betts (BOS), Carlos Beltran (NYY), Steven Souza (TB), Jose Bautista (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="86"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Trumbo</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.252</td>
<td width="34">71</td>
<td width="42">30</td>
<td width="45">87</td>
<td width="41">2</td>
<td width="51">.303</td>
<td width="50">.467</td>
<td width="49">.271</td>
<td width="60">15.6</td>
<td width="63">0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Betts</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="51">.297</td>
<td width="34">92</td>
<td width="42">18</td>
<td width="45">71</td>
<td width="41">25</td>
<td width="51">.360</td>
<td width="50">.470</td>
<td width="49">.292</td>
<td width="60">38.7</td>
<td width="63">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Beltran</td>
<td width="52">60</td>
<td width="51">.258</td>
<td width="34">61</td>
<td width="42">20</td>
<td width="45">70</td>
<td width="41">3</td>
<td width="51">.322</td>
<td width="50">.446</td>
<td width="49">.270</td>
<td width="60">14.9</td>
<td width="63">0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Souza</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.250</td>
<td width="34">72</td>
<td width="42">21</td>
<td width="45">69</td>
<td width="41">19</td>
<td width="51">.335</td>
<td width="50">.439</td>
<td width="49">.283</td>
<td width="60">25.6</td>
<td width="63">2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Bautista</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="51">.262</td>
<td width="34">96</td>
<td width="42">36</td>
<td width="45">103</td>
<td width="41">7</td>
<td width="51">.379</td>
<td width="50">.510</td>
<td width="49">.316</td>
<td width="60">47.3</td>
<td width="63">4.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It should come as no surprise that Jose Bautista has the highest projected offensive numbers among the five right fielders – in fact, he has the highest VORP of any player in the AL East. Minor injuries notwithstanding, he has yet to show age-related decline. Instead, his plate discipline and power make him one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Combine that with the fact that this is his free agent year and that there may be no one more motivated to return to the playoffs, and one can expect Bautista to have another tremendous season. The only other noteworthy right fielder is the youngster Mookie Betts who, in his first full major league season last year, hit .291/.341/.479 with a 40.4 VORP and 5.5 WARP. Expect him to shine again this season. Souza was the centerpiece of the three way deal that brought Trea Turner and Joe Ross to Washington and Wil Myers to San Diego, but disappointed in his first season in Tampa. Trumbo has health concerns, and Beltran turns 39 in April, making both of them questionable in terms of their potential offensive production.</p>
<p><strong>Catcher:</strong> Matt Wieters (BAL), Blake Swihart (BOS), Brian McCann (NYY), Hank Conger (TB), Russell Martin (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="74"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="38"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="44"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="62"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Wieters</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="52">.254</td>
<td width="38">55</td>
<td width="44">18</td>
<td width="46">64</td>
<td width="42">1</td>
<td width="52">.315</td>
<td width="50">.432</td>
<td width="50">.262</td>
<td width="60">15.8</td>
<td width="62">0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Swihart</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="52">.265</td>
<td width="38">49</td>
<td width="44">9</td>
<td width="46">48</td>
<td width="42">5</td>
<td width="52">.310</td>
<td width="50">.393</td>
<td width="50">.248</td>
<td width="60">11.0</td>
<td width="62">1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">McCann</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.243</td>
<td width="38">68</td>
<td width="44">26</td>
<td width="46">80</td>
<td width="42">0</td>
<td width="52">.315</td>
<td width="50">.436</td>
<td width="50">.265</td>
<td width="60">17.1</td>
<td width="62">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Conger</td>
<td width="52">55</td>
<td width="52">.232</td>
<td width="38">37</td>
<td width="44">11</td>
<td width="46">39</td>
<td width="42">1</td>
<td width="52">.299</td>
<td width="50">.384</td>
<td width="50">.249</td>
<td width="60">6.3</td>
<td width="62">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Martin</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.236</td>
<td width="38">66</td>
<td width="44">19</td>
<td width="46">63</td>
<td width="42">6</td>
<td width="52">.329</td>
<td width="50">.405</td>
<td width="50">.269</td>
<td width="60">21.0</td>
<td width="62">4.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>In his first full season with the Blue Jays, Russell Martin hit a career high 23 home runs despite a late-season slump. Those struggles were due to nagging injuries that were likely related to the difficult physical task of catching R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball. Having Josh Thole start the season with the big club ought to reduce the wear and tear on Martin’s body. He is similar to Brian McCann in that both provide pop at the plate but a low batting average, and both are in their thirties. Hank Conger is an interesting case in that he is one of the best pitch framers in the game but is absolutely terrible at throwing out base runners – the worst amongst all MLB catchers. Matt Wieters underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and played just 75 games for the Orioles last season, with a VORP of just 8.0, and should be average at the plate this season. Blake Swihart made his major league debut last season after injuries sidelined both Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan. He is projected to experience an uptick in offensive production this season, but should he falter, he could lose his everyday status to Vasquez.</p>
<p><strong>DH:</strong> Pedro Alvarez (BAL), David Ortiz (BOS), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Corey Dickerson (TB), Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="103"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="32"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="40"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="38"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="47"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Alvarez</td>
<td width="50">65</td>
<td width="49">.231</td>
<td width="32">54</td>
<td width="40">22</td>
<td width="43">63</td>
<td width="38">3</td>
<td width="49">.305</td>
<td width="48">.445</td>
<td width="47">.263</td>
<td width="60">6.4</td>
<td width="63">0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Ortiz</td>
<td width="50">85</td>
<td width="49">.276</td>
<td width="32">82</td>
<td width="40">30</td>
<td width="43">94</td>
<td width="38">1</td>
<td width="49">.361</td>
<td width="48">.508</td>
<td width="47">.299</td>
<td width="60">25.9</td>
<td width="63">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Rodriguez</td>
<td width="50">80</td>
<td width="49">.243</td>
<td width="32">70</td>
<td width="40">22</td>
<td width="43">74</td>
<td width="38">6</td>
<td width="49">.333</td>
<td width="48">.417</td>
<td width="47">.268</td>
<td width="60">10.3</td>
<td width="63">1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Dickerson</td>
<td width="50">70</td>
<td width="49">.274</td>
<td width="32">70</td>
<td width="40">22</td>
<td width="43">81</td>
<td width="38">7</td>
<td width="49">.322</td>
<td width="48">.474</td>
<td width="47">.286</td>
<td width="60">22.4</td>
<td width="63">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Encarnacion</td>
<td width="50">80</td>
<td width="49">.267</td>
<td width="32">89</td>
<td width="40">34</td>
<td width="43">101</td>
<td width="38">5</td>
<td width="49">.353</td>
<td width="48">.505</td>
<td width="47">.303</td>
<td width="60">34.8</td>
<td width="63">3.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Both Encarnacion and Ortiz have something to prove this season. Encarnacion is in his free agent year and will want to perform well – and stay healthy – in order to negotiate the best possible final contract of his career. Ortiz is on the other end of the spectrim, as he is retiring at the end of the season. Still, he would love nothing more than to finish his career as AL East champ. Though neither are the most valuable to their team in terms of additional wins, their bats contribute significantly to the offense, which is exactly what you’d expect from a designated hitter. Neither of the other three should factor into their teams’ potential success to any significant degree, though it will be quite interesting to see which Alex Rodriguez show up. Now that he is yet another year older, will it be the one who hit .278/.382/.515 the first half of the season or the one who posted a measly .216/.324/.448 during the second half?</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>Now that we’ve broken down the projected PECOTA statistics for every member of the starting lineup of the five American League East teams by position, let’s take a quick look at the collective projected VORP and WARP for each team.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="208"><strong>Team</strong></td>
<td width="208"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="208"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Baltimore Orioles</td>
<td width="208">140.7</td>
<td width="208">12.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Boston Red Sox</td>
<td width="208">171.8</td>
<td width="208">19.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">New York Yankees</td>
<td width="208">133.0</td>
<td width="208">15.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Tampa Bay Rays</td>
<td width="208">166.1</td>
<td width="208">23.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Toronto Blue Jays</td>
<td width="208">225.8</td>
<td width="208">27.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The numbers don&#8217;t lie &#8211; the offensive juggernaut that is the Toronto Blue Jays starting lineup leads the AL East in projected VORP &#8211; by a huge margin &#8211;  and WARP, suggesting that they will once again hit and field their way to wins.  As long as the pitching doesn&#8217;t implode and the lineup remains relatively healthy, the Jays should be in the hunt &#8211; and, dare I say, the favourites &#8211; to defend their division crown.</p>
<p><strong>Glossary of Terms:</strong></p>
<p><strong>PECOTA</strong>: Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm is Baseball Prospectus’ system to predict player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons.</p>
<p><strong>TA<sub>V</sub>: </strong>True Average includes factors not considered in other metrics, such as reaching base on error and situational hitting, and adjusts for ballparks and league quality. The baseline for an average player represents what a typical player would do if given similar opportunities.</p>
<p><strong>VORP:</strong> Value Over Replacement Player represents the number of runs contributed beyond a replacement level player at the same position in the same number of plate appearances.</p>
<p><strong>WARP:</strong> Wins Above Replacement Player represents the number of wins a particular player contributes to his team compared to a replacement player from the minor leagues at the same position.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How to Beat PECOTA With the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/31/how-to-beat-pecota/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/31/how-to-beat-pecota/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Mar 2016 15:58:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Michael Bradburn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PECOTA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This season, Baseball Prospectus&#8217; editor-in-chief, Sam Miller, will be curating an entertaining game called Beat PECOTA. If the idea doesn&#8217;t already appear self evident, allow me to explain. For the completely uninitiated, PECOTA is the projection system employed by Baseball Prospectus. PECOTA forecasts many things about a player&#8217;s future performance, including BP&#8217;s in-house stats: True [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This season, Baseball Prospectus&#8217; editor-in-chief, Sam Miller, will be curating an entertaining game called <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/extras/beatpecota/beatpecota.php">Beat PECOTA</a>. If the idea doesn&#8217;t already appear self evident, allow me to explain.</p>
<p>For the completely uninitiated, PECOTA is the projection system employed by Baseball Prospectus. PECOTA forecasts many things about a player&#8217;s future performance, including BP&#8217;s in-house stats: True Average (TAv) and Deserved Run Average (DRA).</p>
<p>The rules of Beat PECOTA then are simple. Pick the over or the under on the projected stats of as many hitters or pitchers as you want. Only players who are projected to have at least 251 plate appearances or 50 innings pitched are eligible. In order to win, you must beat PECOTA by at least seven points of TAv and 0.3 runs of DRA. For every correct player, your team will gain 10 points. However, for every incorrect prediction, your team will lose 11.5 points, so choosing wisely will be in your best interest. Anything located within the designated threshold will be considered a &#8216;push&#8217; &#8212; you will not lose points and PECOTA will be considered correct. In the end, the highest overall score wins.</p>
<p>For your consideration, what follows are some suggestions on who to choose. I&#8217;ve selected a pair of Blue Jays players &#8212; one hitter and one pitcher &#8212; to over-perform and another pair to under-perform their PECOTA projections. I will be including these players on my team for accountability sake. In my description of why to choose these players I will give a sort of &#8216;confidence&#8217; rating, which will inform you on whether or not I actually recommend picking them for your team, or whether I&#8217;m just picking that player for the sake of the exercise.</p>
<h3>The Over-Performers</h3>
<h4> <span style="color: #ffffff">s</span><br />
Josh Donaldson, PECOTA 2016 TAv: .299</h4>
<p>PECOTA relies heavily on probability distributions. That means, among other things, it has a tendency to lean at least a tad toward the league average on both phenomenally good or phenomenally bad players.</p>
<p>Good news: the Blue Jays have a phenomenally good player for easy-pickin&#8217;. Over the past three seasons, Donaldson&#8217;s worst TAv was .305. While the difference between .299 and .305 would only be a push in this PECOTA game, I would take the odds that he exceeds that. In 2013, he hit for .326 TAv. In 2015, he hit for .324 TAv. While he may not be an MVP again, he seems like a lock to exceed the requisite .306 TAv benchmark. I would consider myself very confident on this wager.</p>
<h4> R.A. Dickey, PECOTA 2016 DRA: 4.85</h4>
<p>The knuckleballer doesn&#8217;t get a lot of love from advanced metrics in general, so this shouldn&#8217;t come as much of a surprise. But it does strike me as somewhat anomalous that PECOTA would project Dickey to drop this far in DRA after that metric has actually liked him over the past three seasons. It&#8217;s likely almost entirely due to aging curves though, as Dickey will enter his age-41 season this year.</p>
<p>From 2013 to 2015, Dickey&#8217;s DRAs have been 3.84, 3.80, 3.92. Not only would 4.85 be a massive fall, but so too would the requisite 4.54 that you need to collect your 10 points. I will definitely be taking Dickey.</p>
<p>Bonus coverage: Marcus Stroman is expected to post a DRA of 4.00. While 3.69  would be the necessary score for you to collect your 10 points, Stroman&#8217;s career DRA in the majors is 3.21. He should briskly beat his projections as well, though I&#8217;m slightly more confident in Dickey.</p>
<h3>The Under-Performers</h3>
<h4><span style="color: #ffffff">s</span><br />
Troy Tulowitzki, PECOTA 2016 TAv: .291</h4>
<p>This one was a lot tougher, and Tulowitzki is the unfortunate beneficiary of there just not being a lot of options.</p>
<p>While in Colorado, Tulowitzki had 351 plate appearances and had .274 TAv. Since coming over to Toronto, Tulowitzki has had a .258 TAv in 183 plate appearances. Both numbers are well below the .283 requisite benchmark so slam dunk, right?</p>
<p>In 2014, Tulowitzki had a .331 TAv. In 2013, he had a .306. In short, labeling Tulowitzki as an under-performer could go sour in a hurry. Honestly, I wouldn&#8217;t risk the 11.5 points for this. Even further, I wouldn&#8217;t pick any Blue Jays batter because I believe in at least a bit of lineup protection with hitters this good. But if you&#8217;re one of those pessimist-types, Tulo could be your fellow.</p>
<h4>J.A. Happ, PECOTA 2016 DRA: 4.39</h4>
<p>To tell you the truth, 4.39 sounds just about right for Happ. His last full season in Toronto, he sat at 4.55. In his 108.2 innings with the Seattle Mariners last season, he struggled to a 5.09 DRA. It makes you think that not only are the Blue Jays putting a lot of faith into Ray Searage wizardry, but so too is PECOTA. To be fair, in his 63.1 innings with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Happ posted an absolutely sterling 1.89 DRA.</p>
<p>Do I legitimately think Happ will be a 4.70 DRA pitcher &#8212; the required amount to pull off a victory for your Beat PECOTA team &#8212; next season? Probably not. And I wouldn&#8217;t be picking him if I hadn&#8217;t bound myself to that contract I agreed upon earlier. If Searage did truly find the elixir to fix Happ then I could be very wrong. If Happ performs like he did in Toronto previously, then I&#8217;ll be wrong. If Happ is inconsistent and somehow thinks he is still pitching for the Mariners, then I&#8217;ll be in luck!</p>
<p>So there you have it: A couple of interesting picks for Blue Jays players. Now go <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/extras/beatpecota/beatpecota.php">pick your team!</a></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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