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	<title>Toronto &#187; Osuna</title>
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		<title>Toronto Blue Jays Stuff Report &#8211; Volume 2, Issue 6</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/toronto-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-6/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/toronto-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-2-issue-6/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2017 14:00:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fatigue Units]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13067</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Even in the darkest days of the Toronto Blue Jays 2017 season, there will still be Stuff to discuss. Let&#8217;s look and see how this tire fire has played out in the world of advanced pitching metrics. Starting Pitchers The Starters who have managed to stick around for more than spot starts or one inning [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Even in the darkest days of the Toronto Blue Jays 2017 season, there will still be Stuff to discuss. Let&#8217;s look and see how this tire fire has played out in the world of advanced pitching metrics.</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13071" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starters-Table-1024x184.png" alt="Starters Table" width="700" height="126" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13079" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Starter-Stuff.png" alt="Starter Stuff" width="650" height="471" /></a></p>
<p>The Starters who have managed to stick around for more than spot starts or one inning blow outs (looking at you, Frankie) have had their ups and downs this season. Marco Estrada has an interesting relationship with the Stuff Metric &#8211; when he throws his Curveball, things look a lot better (due to an increased separation between pitches). His Stuff is never going to be elite &#8211; not when his fastball sits nearly a full standard deviation below league average, but when he doesn&#8217;t throw the curve at all, his Stuff falls completely off a cliff. His season started out with a lot of variability, then hit a declining phase &#8211; but after the All Star break &#8211; the Stuff has looked a lot more consistent.</p>
<p>Stroman has had some very consistent Stuff &#8211; a coefficient of variation on the season of 60%. While this is high with respect to his peers, he has the least amount of variability on the Blue Jays staff (amongst starters who have appeared in at least 15 weeks). From an injury perspective, lower variability in Stuff on a weekly basis is linked to reduced injury chances which obviously is a point in Stroman&#8217;s favour. On the flip side, Happ and Estrada have some of the most variability in their Stuff in the entire MLB.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13069" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Relievers-Table-1024x154.png" alt="Relievers Table" width="700" height="105" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-13072" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Reliever-Stuff-1024x743.png" alt="Reliever Stuff" width="650" height="471" /></a></p>
<p>Well now, this doesn&#8217;t look good at all. Last year, the Blue Jays had elite Stuff relievers in both Joe Biagini and Roberto Osuna. This year, Osuna has had an up and down year with his Stuff and has hovered right below league average Stuff (0.4). The Twitterverse started getting huffy with me this week when <a href="https://twitter.com/DrMikeSonne/status/899392674754592768" target="_blank">I tweeted that Roberto Osuna should be shut down for the year</a> to prevent injury and ensure he will be a huge part of the team for seasons to come. Like I had mentioned, Osuna&#8217;s Stuff is way down &#8211; he has lost a significant amount off of his fastball and he seems to just refuse to throw the fourseamer anymore.</p>
<p>Not only has his fastball dropped off, but Osunas has lost Stuff in all other areas too. There&#8217;s less separation between his pitches and less range of velocity between the pitch arsenal.</p>
<table style="height: 230px" width="441">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Roberto Osuna</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2015</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2016</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400"> 2017</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Stuff</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.82</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.84</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">0.38</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Fastball Velo (mph)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">95.51</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">95.75</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">94.87</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Change in Velo (%)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">13.79%</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">9.91%</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">8.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: 400">Break Distance (&#8220;)</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">10.31</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">11.60</td>
<td style="font-weight: 400">8.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>I wrote an article that examined workloads in pitchers that tried to come up with a metric that compared relievers to starters in the same light. Looking closely at these values (in the PitchFX era), there has only been one pitcher that had a higher workload before they turned 23  &#8211; Madison Bumgarner.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/before-23.png"><img class=" wp-image-13076 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/before-23.png" alt="before 23" width="600" height="352" /></a></p>
<p>In addition, no pitcher had appeared in more games than Osuna. These are uncharted waters &#8211; and if the Jays are seeing these same signs, a tough decision is coming; is it worth risking the health of one of baseball&#8217;s best young closers for an outside shot at the second wildcard, in exchange for losing him for parts of the next two?</p>
<p><em> Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The Blue Jays &#8220;Stuff&#8221; Report &#8211; Volume 9</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/15/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-9/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/15/the-blue-jays-stuff-report-volume-9/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Aug 2016 15:30:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stroman]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5548</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Welcome to the Stuff report for your Toronto Blue Jays. Is it just me, or does Benoit have a huge head??? Starters Let&#8217;s face it &#8211; the Stuff report is about Aaron Sanchez, and looking for signs that he&#8217;s somehow losing his stuff as a result of fatigue. While there have been ebbs and flows [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Welcome to the Stuff report for your Toronto Blue Jays. Is it just me, or does Benoit have a huge head???</p>
<h1>Starters</h1>
<p>Let&#8217;s face it &#8211; the Stuff report is about Aaron Sanchez, and looking for signs that he&#8217;s somehow losing his stuff as a result of fatigue. While there have been ebbs and flows in his Stuff &#8211; he has remained shockingly consistent throughout the year. Last week, <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/who-has-the-best-stuff-in-baseball-volume-7/">I looked into the Stuff metric a bit deeper</a>. One of the things I wanted to find out was how consistent Stuff was throughout the course of the season. Sanchez has been in the top 20 of all starters for his consistency. Using PitchF/X data, there are just no signs that Sanchez is wearing down.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="ht">Aaron Sanchez, dirty 95 MPH two seam movement. <a href="https://t.co/DxMtxSxKid">pic.twitter.com/DxMtxSxKid</a></p>
<p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/764796725668306948">August 14, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Sorry for all of the links, but another pitcher I have written about is J.A. Happ. <a href="http://www.mikesonne.ca/baseball/let-it-happ-en/">When Happ signed with the Jays, I noted that his stuff has gotten better every year since he was last with the team.</a> In this volume of the Stuff report &#8211; you can see that his stuff has jumped back up to the 2015 levels &#8211; very encouraging, given how well J.A. has pitched this year. Marco Estrada is an elite pitcher, but it wasn&#8217;t necessarily because of his stuff &#8211; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/15/marco-estradas-changeup-and-its-place-among-royalty/">though his change up is legendary</a>. Throughout his back troubles, Estrada saw a steady decline in his Stuff. This marks the third week in a row that his Stuff has stabilized, and improved. Maybe Marco&#8217;s back is feeling a bit better again.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-5552" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Starters-Table-1024x221.png" alt="Starters - Table" width="598" height="129" /> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Relievers-Picture.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-5551" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Starters-Picture-1024x742.png" alt="Starters - Picture" width="570" height="413" /></a></p>
<h1>Relievers</h1>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Relievers-Picture.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-5550" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Relievers-Table-1024x244.png" alt="Relievers Table" width="596" height="142" /><img class="alignnone  wp-image-5549" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Relievers-Picture-1024x741.png" alt="Relievers - Picture" width="550" height="399" /></a></p>
<p>Roberto Osuna has continued to dominate for the Jays in his closer&#8217;s role, but looking at his season, he appears to have made some sort of a change in how he&#8217;s approached hitters. Looking at Volume 5 of the Stuff Report &#8211; Osuna had his best stuff of the season. Since then, it has dropped off a bit, but his performance has arguably been better.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/table-comp.png"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-5553" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/table-comp-1024x116.png" alt="table - comp" width="697" height="79" /></a></p>
<p>Osuna&#8217;s velocity is down nearly one mph. He is also not separating his pitches on velocity, or break distance. Obviously, there are many ways to get hitters out &#8211; and it looks like Osuna has simply just gone to his best pitches more frequently. There is no reason to think that Roberto isn&#8217;t knocking at greatness&#8217; door.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>This is Osuna &amp; Martin&#8217;s best yet. <a href="https://t.co/n12pfUWWAl">pic.twitter.com/n12pfUWWAl</a></p>
<p>— Ian Hunter (@BlueJayHunter) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJayHunter/status/764548964632793088">August 13, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p>It is also really encouraging to see Brett Cecil increase his Stuff since his stay on the DL. Benoit, Grilli, and Tepera have all shown increases in Stuff. This bullpen struggled early in the season, but they are starting to look like a real weapon for this Blue Jays team.</p>
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