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	<title>Toronto &#187; Orioles</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays vs. Orioles: AL Wildcard Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/04/one-game-to-win-al-wildcard-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 04 Oct 2016 11:17:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Tuesday, October 4th, 2016 Written by Eric Mercer and Joshua Howsam October baseball. This is it. Every team in major league baseball has played 162 games* and there are ten teams left standing. But for today, we only care about two. Although the Blue Jays did not win the division, as was [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Tuesday, October 4th, 2016</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="https://twitter.com/EricMercerJays" target="_blank">Eric Mercer</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">Joshua Howsam</a></em></p>
<p>October baseball. This is it. Every team in major league baseball has played 162 games* and there are ten teams left standing. But for today, we only care about two.</p>
<p>Although the Blue Jays did not win the division, as was the hope at the beginning of September, their season continues for at least another day as they host the win-or-go-home Wild Card game. For the eleventh time this season, the Baltimore Orioles will be occupying the first base dugout at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night. Both teams finished the regular season with 89 wins, but the tiebreaker was awarded to Toronto as they won the season series, 10-9. The Jays are slightly better at home than on the road, but the real issue belongs to the Orioles. The Baltimore birds actually have a losing record on the road (39-42), so they really could have used that extra win.</p>
<p>The Jays have handled the Orioles reasonably well at Rogers Centre this year, going 6-4, but they stumbled a bit last week and nearly lost their hold on a postseason spot. One of those losses came with Marcus Stroman on the mound, and another in a game started by Chris Tillman (but won by the bullpen). This should be a tight affair.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchup:</h3>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37 ERA, 3.45 DRA) vs. Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA, 4.53 DRA)</strong></p>
<p>The Jays had some serious thinking to do regarding the starter for the wild card. They had two rested starters, Stroman or Liriano, and reasons to go with either one.</p>
<p>The fact that Liriano was even in the mix must be considered something of a surprise. He was acquired for Drew Hutchison in a glorified salary dump, and as of yesterady had a real possibility of starting the wild card game. There are two big reasons the big lefty was considered: The first was that Liriano has allowed a total of four runs in his last four starts (24.2 IP) and recently dominated Baltimore over 6.1 innings, striking out 10 and walking just one. The second point in favour of Liriano is Baltimore’s extreme struggles against lefties this season. They have hit only .234 with a .693 OPS against lefties, both of which rank near the bottom of the league. In contrast, they have hit .263 with a .783 OPS against righthanders.</p>
<p>Despite all of that, the Blue Jays committed to go with Stroman. He has had an underwhelming season relative to expectations and has put up a 7.04 ERA in four starts against the Orioles. They have also hit .344 with a .900 OPS against him. Having said that, Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher and one of the best in baseball at limiting the long ball, which is a big plus against Baltimore. He also throws more strikes than Liriano. Finally, Stroman has been here before. This will be his fourth playoff start and second in a win-or-go-home game. Stroman seems to thrive on big moments, and this certainly qualifies. The little man will need to come up big. #HDMH.</p>
<p>The Orioles also had a decision to make, although their’s was easier from an objective viewpoint. They could&#8217;ve gone with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has thrown well lately, but his inflated season numbers likely scared them off. Buck Showalter instead elected to go with Chris Tillman, their ace, in what is guaranteed to be a noisy environment. Tillman had a 3.77 ERA in 172.0 innings, which looks fine on the surface. There are some worrying signs for Tillman, however. As the season has gone along, he has seen a steady decline in his velocity. This drop reached its valley in his last time out, as he averaged just 90.6 mph on his fastball, well down from his opening day velocity of 94.6 mph. This will be something to watch early on.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-33.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7224" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/Brooksbaseball-Chart-33.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (33)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Tillman is also somewhat prone to issuing free passes, allowing 3.5 walks per nine innings this year, and has had a lot of trouble going deep into games against Toronto, including tossing just 5 2/3 innings his last time out, allowing nine baserunners. The Jays would do well to wait on him early to see if he can find the zone. If he can’t, there will be an opportunity to do some serious damage. That being said, he is still an effective pitcher. And when Tillman is throwing strikes, he uses his five pitch mix very well to keep hitters off balanced. Expect him to bring his &#8216;A&#8217; game.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>The Slumping Offenses</strong></p>
<p>The Jays offense has been scuffling as of late, there is no denying it. Their 100 runs in September ranked 29th in all of baseball, just a solitary run ahead of the Marlins. The Blue Jays are getting on base just fine, as their .335 September OBP was 10th best in all of baseball, but they just couldn&#8217;t bring them home. The biggest culprit has been their disappearing power. Despite ranking third in the AL to Baltimore in long balls on the season, the boys in blue hit just 24 home runs in September, finishing near the bottom of the league (26th, 14th in the AL). Their .363 slugging percentage was dead last in the AL (28th in the MLB). They&#8217;ll need to hit better on Tuesday if they hope to survive to play another game.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays aren&#8217;t the only team struggling with the bats. While the Orioles are still mashing the ball out of the ballpark (just one home run behind the leaders for the month of September), they&#8217;re struggling to score runs on the whole. The reason is simple: they aren&#8217;t getting on base. The Orioles .306 OBP for the month of September ranked 26th in baseball. Even if you can hit home runs, it&#8217;s hard to score runs when there&#8217;s nobody to drive in.</p>
<p>Both of these offenses are obviously capable of a lot more, so this could still turn into a slugfest, but nothing recently suggests that will happen.</p>
<p><strong>The Battle of the Bullpens</strong></p>
<p>They Blue Jays will have to score early if they want to win this one, as the Orioles have a devastating bullpen. Led by closer Zach Britton who went 47/47 in save opportunities and amassed a record a 0.54 ERA along the way (not a typo), the Orioles relief corps has been nothing short of sublime this season. They led all AL groups with a 3.40 ERA, and have blown just 14 leads all season. Look for Showalter to have a short leash on Tillman before turning it over to Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Donnie Hart, Darren O&#8217;Day, and finally, Britton. If the Orioles have a late lead, they just don&#8217;t lose.</p>
<p>The Jays find themselves facing quite a different situation, as Joaquin Benoit is out with a torn calf, and Jason Grilli has proven himself to be very shaky of late. Roberto Osuna was also looking a little shaky, having blown back-to-back saves, though he looked much better against the Red Sox in the final week of the season. Thankfully for John Gibbons, there will be reinforcements for this game. Both Francisco Liriano and Marco Estrada will be available to help bridge the gap to recent standouts Joe Biagni, Brett Cecil before handing the ball off to Osuna. A recent hiccup vs David Ortiz notwithstanding, Cecil has been outstanding for six weeks, and Biagini has really come into his own as a late-inning reliever.</p>
<p><strong>Managerial Mischief </strong></p>
<p>With the Wild Card rosters only existing for one day, both teams will be loading up their lineups with extra relievers and bench options. Look for a lot of matchup pitching changes and pinch runners, as both Buck Showalter and John Gibbons will do everything in their power to keep this game from getting away. This likely means it will take a long time, but the chess game will be interesting to watch.</p>
<p><strong>Jose Bautista vs. the Orioles</strong></p>
<p>Joey Bats has proven time and again that he has a knack for coming up big in big games, with more than his share of big moments both recently and in his career. However, he has also had his shares of dustups with the Baltimore Orioles. The feud has escalated over the years, as Bautista has celebrated in grandiose ways and traded verbal barbs with the O&#8217;s, while they have directed pitches at or behind the Jays&#8217; slugger. The primary feud exists with Darren O&#8217;Day, but has definitely tilted towards the Toronto rightfielder in recent years. Bautista now owns a .389/.577/1.056 (that&#8217;s sluging, not OPS) line against the submariner, so expect O&#8217;Day to celebrate just a little bit harder if he gets Bautista out in a big moment.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Baltimore Orioles</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Adam Jones &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Hyun Soo Kim &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Manny Machado &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Mark Trumbo &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Matt Wieters &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Davis &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Schoop &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Bourn- RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">J.J. Hardy &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ezequiel Carrera &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Win and you&#8217;re in. Lose and your season is finished. There&#8217;s not much else to say. The Texas Rangers await, and the Jays would love an opportunity to knock them out again, but Baltimore stands in their way. If the Blue Jays punish Tillman&#8217;s mistakes, Stroman throw the way he did last time out and Gibby uses his bullpen well, the Jays will move on. Either way, this game is going to be great. October baseball is just the best.</p>
<p>* Except Cleveland and Detroit who have only played 161 games.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 5, Blue Jays 3; J.A.&#8217;s Not Happ-y And He Knows It</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/30/recap-orioles-5-blue-jays-3-j-a-s-not-happ-y-and-he-knows-it/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Aug 2016 02:29:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Losing to the team that&#8217;s trailing you in the standings isn&#8217;t fun. It&#8217;s even less fun when that team is the Orioles. And it again gets worse when the Orioles&#8217; starting pitcher for the night was Ubaldo Jimenez. To call this one a heartbreaker may be an understatement. There were positives, however, as Michael Saunders [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Losing to the team that&#8217;s trailing you in the standings isn&#8217;t fun. It&#8217;s even less fun when that team is the Orioles. And it again gets worse when the Orioles&#8217; starting pitcher for the night was Ubaldo Jimenez. To call this one a heartbreaker may be an understatement. There were positives, however, as Michael Saunders had two extra base hits, which scored two of the Jays&#8217; three runs of the game. Given that Saunders had just two other multi extra base hit games over the last two months, this was a nice change.</p>
<p>With that said, things weren&#8217;t entirely peachy for the Blue Jays, as one would imagine looking at the box score. J.A. Happ was not only unable to put up a win and tie Rick Porcello for the league lead in the category, he also may have put up his worst start of the season. With six hits, two home runs, and two walks off of him over 6 1/3 innings of work, it&#8217;s needless to say that Happ struggled against the Orioles offence.</p>
<p>However, it isn&#8217;t the hits or home run against totals that are most suprising; it&#8217;s the lack of strikeouts. Since his &#8216;rebirth&#8217;, J.A. Happ had put up nine straight starts of five or more strikeouts. On Tuesday, he put up three strikeouts, which puts him more in line with his early season ways. It&#8217;s especially interesting because it seemed like people were just starting to accept the new strikeout happy Happ as the norm. Strikeout Happ may still be the norm&#8230;but at least now there is reason for pause.</p>
<p>All things considered, the Orioles have a relatively strong offence. So, worrying too much about one poor start from J.A. Happ is unwarranted. But, the Jays will need to keep an eye on him down the stretch, as he works towards unprecedented (for him) innings totals, and continues to pitch in to October *crosses fingers*.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tuesday&#8217;s top play of the game came via a Matt Wieters off Blue Jays&#8217; reliever Jason Grilli in the 8th inning. It represents the first homer that Grilli has given up in August, and likely clears him of grabbing one homerless month this season. Wieters&#8217; homer increased the Orioles chances of winning by 38%, and the two runs that it added were all that Baltimore needed to etch out a win.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tuesday&#8217;s bottom play of the game came when Russell Martin grounded in to a double play in the first inning. &#8216;Twas a departure from Martin, as he&#8217;s almost put up a 1.000 OPS in August. The groundout came with one out and men on first and second, dropping the Jays&#8217; chances of winnings by 8.6%.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Wednesday&#8217;s game at 7:05 EST in Baltimore will decide the series. While not necessary to maintain first place in the East, it&#8217;d be nice if the Jays could hand a series loss to the Orioles. Although, even if a win doesn&#8217;t come on Wednesday, Jays fans can take solace in the fact that the team has <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/" target="_blank">a 94.9% chance at making the playoffs</a>. Meanwhile, the Orioles are now down to 29.5%.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Bombing into Baltimore: Orioles Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/bombing-into-baltimore-orioles-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2016 16:28:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES AUGUST 29TH &#8211; AUGUST 31ST Written by Sean Addis and Joshua Howsam The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a 15 game stretch against American League East opponents beginning with a nine game road trip Monday night in Baltimore. This will be Toronto&#8217;s last time at the Camden Yards this regular [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">TORONTO BLUE JAYS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">AUGUST 29TH &#8211; AUGUST 31ST</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Sean Addis and Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays will begin a 15 game stretch against American League East opponents beginning with a nine game road trip Monday night in Baltimore. This will be Toronto&#8217;s last time at the Camden Yards this regular season, a place where they have lost four of six games. The Blue Jays are coming off a sweep of the last place Minnesota Twins, while the Orioles are coming off a series loss to the New York Yankees. This series has major implications for both teams as the Orioles enter three games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East. The Blue Jays have aligned their three best starters for the series, but in hitter friendly Camden Yards they will need to minimize mistakes to be effective. The postseason race is about to enter its final month and this is an opportunity for both teams to make a statement.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Monday, August 29 – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada vs. Wade Miley</strong></p>
<p>Estrada has had a bit of a rough go of things lately. After going at least six innings in 17 of his first 19 starts, the Mexican righty has failed to go past five in any of his last three outings. Over that span, he has tossed 14 innings and allowed 14 runs (13 earned), which has seen his ERA rise over half a run from 2.92 to 3.47. Estrada has been dealing with both control and long ball issues, as he has allowed six home runs and seven walks in those three starts. With the powerful Orioles lineup, he will have to avoid both or he could find himself looking at another early exit. He has faced them three times this season with decent results (3.70 ERA in 17 innings), but Baltimore has been patient and forced him to throw strikes in each outing. It&#8217;s tough to bet against Estrada given all we&#8217;ve seen thus far, but he&#8217;s been dealing with some back issues which may be slowing him down. Pitching on his proper four days rest should give us a sign of what to expect from the early-season ace going forward.</p>
<p>Wade Miley is not a very good pitcher. He enters this game with a 5.51 ERA in 24 starts, and an 8.18 ERA in five starts with the Orioles. However, his peripheral stats suggest he is slightly better. In 2016, he has a DRA of 3.93, as he generates a some groundballs and does have the ability to miss bats when he needs to. As such, he is more than capable of busting out a good start once in a while. In fact, he did just that against the Blue Jays back on July 24 (with Seattle). He held Toronto to just two runs on four hits (two walks) in six innings. He threw well his last time out as well, holding the Nationals to two runs through five, striking out six. All that being said, the Blue Jays <em>should</em> mash the lefty.</p>
<h4>Tuesay, August 30 – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ vs. Ubaldo Jimenez</strong></p>
<p>What is there to say about Happ that hasn&#8217;t been said already? The man just keeps getting it done. A sixth inning blip last time out against the Angels notwithstanding, Happ has been excellent from game one. He takes a 17-4 record and a 3.19 ERA into this game, and to take that a bit deeper, he has two or fewer runs in 15 of his 25 start this year. He has also started striking people out more lately, with a K/9 of 11.45 over his last nine starts (when he switched to more fourseamers). Basically, Happ is showing that what he did at the end of last year and the start of this season is no fluke. He really is a very, very good pitcher now. As far as matchups go, one would think the Orioles would be tough for the tall left-hander. After all, they boast a lot of right-handed power with the likes of Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, and Adam Jones. Happ has kept them in check, however. Across two starts, both wins, the southpaw has tossed 14 innings and allowed just five runs (3.21 ERA) with 16 strikeouts against only three walks. It will be interesting to see how things go in Camden Yards, but expect another good outing from Mr. Happ.</p>
<p>For the longest time, the Blue Jays just could not solve Ubaldo Jimenez. It didn&#8217;t seem to matter whether he was having a good year or bad, or how wild he had been lately, he just owned Toronto. The first time they faced him this year, it looked like more of the same; Jimenez held the Blue Jays to just two runs in five innings, striking out six times. The universe finally corrected itself the next two times out. Jimenez was absolutely rocked to the tune of 10 runs over a combined 2 1/3 innings. In fact, the first outing was so bad that it cost Jimenez his rotation spot (that second appearance came in relief). He has bounced in and out of the rotation since then, and is back now due to an injury to staff ace, Chris Tillman. He did look good the last time out though, shutting down the Nationals over six innings (he allowed just one run and no walks). That being said, this should be another good matchup for the Jays.</p>
<h4>Wednesday, August 31 – First Pitch 7:05 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Yovani Gallardo</strong></p>
<p>He&#8217;s back! Making his first start since a brief demotion (for roster reasons), Sanchez takes on the Orioles on a full ten days&#8217; rest. Like Happ, he has been absolutely excellent this year. His 2.99 ERA sits fourth in the American League and he held opponents to two or fewer runs in 16 of his 24 starts. Baltimore does happen to be one of the only teams that has really gotten to the young ace, as he lasted just five innings and gave up six runs on ten hits the first time they met. He turned things around the next couple of times though, holding the Orioles to just three runs in thirteen innings. It will be very interesting to see how he responds in this one, as the layoff is extremely long for a starting pitcher (he did not pitch in the minors), and he did struggle a little bit the last time out against the Indians. Sanchez is a huge part of the push for the playoffs and beyond, so there is a very real chance that he will be on a short leash once again. If the bullpen is rested, don&#8217;t be surprised to see Sanchez leave the game after only five innings.</p>
<p>The report on Gallardo could basically be a carbon copy of the start of the Jimenez breakdown. For whatever reason, the Jays just could not hit Gallardo for the last couple of years. They could get baserunners, but they could just never break through. He beat the Jays in the regular season last year, again in the postseason, and held them to two runs across five innings in his first start this year. Things looked bad again in his most recent outing, as he held Toronto off the scoreboard for the first four innings, but the offense exploded for seven runs in the fifth (five off Gallardo) to finally get to their nemesis. He actually bounced back nicely from that start and threw four good games in a row against a mixed bag of opponents, dropping his ERA from an abysmal 5.70 to a simply really bad 5.08. He got rocked last time out though, giving up seven run in 1 1/3 innings, ballooning his ERA right back to 5.69. He&#8217;s going to throw a lot of junk, and nothing straight, but for the third time this series, the matchup definitely favours Toronto.</p>
<h3>ADDITIONS AND SUBTRACTIONS</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will formally welcome back former catcher Dioner Navarro, who was acquired on Friday for double-A left-hander Colton Turner. As a result, Toronto waived C Josh Thole, however, it is expected that if he clears waivers they will resign him prior to R.A. Dickey&#8217;s next start in Tampa. In an attempt to improve the depth of the bullpen the Blue Jays DFA&#8217;d Aaron Loup and promoted relief pitcher Bo Schultz from Triple-A Buffalo during the last series. The Blue Jays will activate starter Aaron Sanchez for Wednesday&#8217;s start, so a subsequent move is expected to follow.</p>
<p>As a result of two blowouts over the weekend the Orioles have made a flurry of transactions over the last few days. They signed (former Oriole) reliever Tommy Hunter, recalled right-handed pitcher Oliver Drake, optioned right-hander Mike Wright to the Norfolk Tides and designated left-handed reliever Tyler McFarland for assignment. Orioles centre fielder Adam Jones, exited Friday&#8217;s game in New York with a strained left hamstring but could return to the lineup on Monday night.</p>
<p>Pitchers, Chris Tillman (shoulder injury) and Darren O&#8217;Day (shoulder strain), remain on the disabled list for the Orioles and are not expected to be activated for this series.</p>
<h3>KEEP AN EYE ON</h3>
<p><strong>The Killer B&#8217;s</strong></p>
<p>The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best one-two punch in the bullpen in baseball. Their set up man, Brad Brach, has been dominant with a 1.68 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 10.35 K/9. As good as he has been Zach Britton has been even better. Britton is perfect in save opportunities with 38, has a microscopic ERA 0.68 and WHIP 0.81, and an impressive 10.56 K/9. It has been the performance of Brach and Britton that have been a key to the Orioles ability to remain in contention. For the Blue Jays to be successful in the series, they need to have the lead before the &#8220;Killer B&#8217;s&#8221; can become a factor.</p>
<p><b>Jays Offence is on Fire</b></p>
<p>The Minnesota Twins pitchers were just what the Blue Jays offence needed to get out of their August slumber. Toronto scored 32 runs, hit nine home runs and came back from two deficits to sweep the lowly Twins. The Jays will face three starters who have struggled most of the season and will try to continue to their hot streak at the plate. It will be imperative to dominate these starters to avoid the deadly backend of the bullpen and give their pitchers more room for error against the high powering Orioles offence.</p>
<p><strong>&#8220;Waiver Trade Deadline&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>August 31st waiver deadline is the last chance for teams to add players for them to be eligible for the playoffs. The Blue Jays and Orioles have both been active already with the additions of Navarro and Hunter respectively. Both teams could still benefit from adding further pieces to bolster their roster so keep your eyes on the transaction wire over the next few days.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Orioles</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista-DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Adam Jones-CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson-3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Hyun soo Kim-LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Manny Machado-3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin-C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Davis-1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki-SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mark Trumbo-RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders-RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Schoop-2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar-CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Pedro Alvarez-DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Matt Wieters-C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis-2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">JJ Hardy-SS</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Toronto has an opportunity to put further distance between themselves and Baltimore and the pitching match ups are in their favour, especially avoiding Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy in this series. However, Camden Yards has been a challenge for the Blue Jays and winning two of three would be considered a huge success.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 6, Blue Jays 5; Baltimore Beats the Blue Jays Bullpen</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/09/recap-orioles-6-blue-jays-5-baltimore-beats-blue-jays-bullpen/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Jun 2016 02:47:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tammy Rainey]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Jays fans had every right to be nervous about this game. As measured by OPS, the Orioles featured the second most prolific offense in the AL to this point (.775, as compared to Toronto&#8217;s .720) and even better in June (a robust .892) and Marcus Stroman had been pretty awful in 3 of his last [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jays fans had every right to be nervous about this game. As measured by OPS, the Orioles featured the second most prolific offense in the AL to this point (.775, as compared to Toronto&#8217;s .720) and even better in June (a robust .892) and Marcus Stroman had been pretty awful in 3 of his last 4 outings. The Orioles starter came in having struggles of his own, but the Jays OPS in June was only .677 coming into this game.</p>
<p>Marcus started the game by walking Adam Jones, who&#8217;d later score on a double by Manny Machado but Machado then rescued Stroman from further damage with a base-running error that led to his being thrown out on a very close play at the plate. But the absence of hitting wasn&#8217;t a problem for the Jays early, scoring three in the bottom of the first inning and after Stroman cruised in the second they tacked on another run in the bottom of that inning.</p>
<p>Things seemed to be falling apart in the top of the third as Stroman loaded the bases with no outs and Chris Davis at the plate. He ended up allowing 2 of those runners to score but escaped with the lead barely intact. A Josh Donaldson triple (for the second game in a row) in the 4th drove in the Blue Jays&#8217; fifth run.</p>
<p>After a Pedro Alvarez homer with one out in the 6th, John Gibbons decided to not risk further damage and Stroman was out of the game, not having inspired any confidence that he&#8217;d figured out his struggles.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the sixth, Jose Bautista left for a pinch runner after walking, with some apparent discomfort in his leg but the Jays stranded the runner. Aaron Loup was called on in the top of the seventh to retire Chris Davis and&#8230;didn&#8217;t. The game was tied at five and would remain so until the top of the ninth. LF Hyun Soo Kim doubled of recently-more-hittable Roberto Osuna to lead off the inning and two sacrifices later the go-ahead run crossed the plate. Now the burden was on the Jays to hand Zack Britton his first blown save of the year, if they could.</p>
<p>They couldn&#8217;t.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Remember that Chris Davis homer I mentioned above, off Aaron Loup in the 7th inning? That play increased the O&#8217;s chances of winning by 20.1%</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the bottom of that same inning, Russel martin came to the plate with 1 out and 2 runners on. He grounded into a double play to end the Blue Jays&#8217; last serious threat to score, and decrease their chances of winning by 14.5%</p>
<h3>Joey Bats&#8217; Achy leg</h3>
<p>We may see Jose Bautista take the night off tomorrow if his leg doesn&#8217;t feel better after his early exit tonight. Late in the game the team passed along to broadcasters that the cause for Bautista&#8217;s early exit was &#8220;right thigh tightness.&#8221; Toronto can ill afford to have any more bats on the shelf.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Tonight&#8217;s results provide no relief to the anxiety surrounding Marcus Stroman&#8217;s current run of sub-standard work. While the rest of the rotation is purring along, Pete Walker and Stroman will go back to the drawing board to try again to sort out what the issue might be.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The best Orioles starter in this series will take the hill tomorrow, and will have to bring his A game with Marco Ace-strada  throwing for Toronto. The Blue Jays will be looking to gain back the ground they lost tonight to the first place Orioles.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>These Birds are Flying: Orioles Series Preview</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Jun 2016 17:15:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Kevin gausman]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tyler Wilson]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles June 9th &#8211; June 12th Written by Matt Gwin and Molly Tissenbaum After tearing through the Yankees and Red Sox over the last few weeks, one would have hoped that the Jays would be closer to the top of the AL East. Instead, while the Jays were doing their winning, the Orioles [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">June 9th &#8211; June 12th</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/matthewgwin/" target="_blank">Matt Gwin</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/mollytissenbaum/" target="_blank">Molly Tissenbaum</a></p>
<p>After tearing through the Yankees and Red Sox over the last few weeks, one would have hoped that the Jays would be closer to the top of the AL East. Instead, while the Jays were doing their winning, the Orioles were keeping pace. As a result, Baltimore&#8217;s team now leads the division, and the Blue Jays are 4.5 games back. If they can pull off a series win, there&#8217;s a chance that the Jays will find themselves in the second wildcard spot, and thus a pole position for a postseason spot. However, that will require a very poor showing from the Mariners in their series vs. Texas. Slow and steady wins this race.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Thursday, June 9th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman vs. Tyler Wilson</strong></p>
<p>Thus far, Stroman has had mixed results. He currently holds a staff worst 4.82 ERA, but also a staff best 80.1 IP. Also, it could easily be argued that three of his last four starts included the three worst starts of his career. Call it a slump, if you will. I still firmly believe that regression and baseball smarts will fix Stroman&#8217;s season; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/07/why-marcus-stroman-will-be-perfectly-fine/" title="Why Marcus Stroman Will Be Perfectly Fine" target="_blank">I iterated as much this past week</a>. However, in order to do that, he will have to start showing some changes eventually. Fortunately, the Orioles are a reasonably good candidate for Stroman&#8217;s revival. While they currently hold MLB&#8217;s fifth highest OPS, they also hold the third lowest contact rate. As we&#8217;ve seen, getting ground balls hasn&#8217;t been Stroman&#8217;s issue. Rather, it has been not stranding enough runners, and a few more strikeouts should allow him to do that.</p>
<p>In terms of major league pitching, Tyler Wilson is pretty much unremarkable in every way. Here are a few quotes from <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=592869" target="_blank">his pitch description on Brooks Baseball</a>:</p>
<p>&#8220;His fourseam fastball is straight as an arrow, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers&#8217; four seamers&#8221;<br />
&#8220;His slider comes in below hitting speed, sweeps across the zone, has exceptional depth, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers&#8217; sliders and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers&#8217; sliders&#8221;<br />
&#8220;His change is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers&#8217; changeups&#8221;</p>
<p>If that&#8217;s not unremarkable, then I don&#8217;t know what is. Now, with that said, over the last couple of months he has seemingly learned a thing or two from the Blue Jays&#8217; pitching staff. In 2016, he has consistently thrown ~65% fastballs (only slightly fewer than last year), but he&#8217;s throwing an increasing amount of sinkers, and a decreasing amount of four seamers. Against many teams, that&#8217;s likely to be an effective strategy. However, the Jays are rather good at hitting the fastball, so expect them to score quite a few runs.</p>
<h4>June 10th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marco Estrada vs. Kevin Gausman</strong></p>
<p>It&#8217;ll be tough for Marco to top his last performance, wherein he took a no-hitter in to the eighth inning before it was broken up by a Chris Young home run. As a result of that homer (and Osuna&#8217;s near meltdown), Marco&#8217;s stat line didn&#8217;t quite look immaculate, but those who watched the game know just how good he was. In fact, that&#8217;s kind of been the case all season. Similarly to 2015, all of the traditional regression metrics like BABIP, HR/FB%, and LOB% all saw that Estrada shouldn&#8217;t continue to be as good as he&#8217;s been. However, he has done it for just over a year now. There&#8217;s bound to be some regression, as Estrada likely isn&#8217;t a sub 2.50 ERA pitcher, but a lot of it is very real.</p>
<p>Like Marco Estrada, Kevin Gausman is outperforming his FIP by a wide margin. However, unlike Marco, Kevin has no calling card to explain why exactly that is. Gausman&#8217;s strikeout and walk totals have been rather decent this season, but that&#8217;s never been his problem. Instead it is home runs that plague him, and 2016 has been no different. In two of his last three starts he&#8217;s given up three homers. Jose Bautista, it&#8217;s your time shine.</p>
<h4>June 11th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ vs. Mike Wright</strong></p>
<p>Of the Blue Jays&#8217; many pitching miracles, J.A. Happ is probably the one that we should believe in the least. In comparison to 2015, wherein Happ&#8217;s ERA was similarly great, he now has little peripheral footing with which to back it up. He&#8217;s posting a career low 5.71 K/9, and a respectable, but not superb 2.85 BB/9. Then, given that he&#8217;s not even producing a particularly high amount of soft contact, one shouldn&#8217;t expect his BABIP to remain so low. However, more than 90% of the pitches he throws should look like fastballs coming out of his hand. In a way, that&#8217;s one form of deception. Deception usually works for a while in MLB, but not forever, and not often against big fastball hitters like Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. Happ will have to proceed with caution.</p>
<p>Mike Wright has a mediocre strikeout rate, a mediocre walk rate, and a mediocre ground ball rate. <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=605541&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=pcount&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=06/08/2016" target="_blank">80% of the pitches he throws</a> should look like fastballs coming out of his hand. Essentially, his peripherals suggest he&#8217;s J.A. Happ, minus the shiny sub 4.00 ERA. Instead, Mike Wright has a 5.14 ERA, a 4.96 FIP, and 4.98 DRA. Both the real ERA and ERA estimators alike agree that he&#8217;s really not very good. The Blue Jays, good fastball hitters as they are, should have no trouble with him.</p>
<h4>June 12th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Ubaldo Jimenez</strong></p>
<p>In every single series preview I write from here on out this season, I will happily write that I, Matt Gwin, was wrong about Aaron Sanchez. He had a rough patch through the first half of May in which he looked like he might go off the rails. However, through the second half of May and in to the first half of June he has certainly righted the course. In his last start, against the Tigers, he had 12 strikeouts, and just one walk. After the game, <a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/182759528/aaron-sanchez-takes-one-hitter-into-ninth?game_pk=447747" target="_blank">Tigers&#8217; slugger Miguel Cabrera noted</a>:</p>
<p>&#8220;Whew. Wow. Very impressed. Very impressed. &#8230; To pitch over 95 mph for eight innings, that&#8217;s impressive, with a good breaking ball. He showed a little bit of changeup, but he doesn&#8217;t need a changeup.&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s about as hearty as an endorsement gets.</p>
<p>For yet another time, Ubaldo Jimenez&#8217;s velocity has decreased. As late as 2010, he was throwing above 96 MPH regularly. Now, he struggles to touch 94 MPH. On top of that, his command is all but gone. While he can keep the ball inside the park, he struggles to keep it inside the strike zone. Those same results have been consistent across each of his starts this season. In turn, he has been limited to 5 IP or less in 75% of his starts. Because Ubaldo has a plethora of pitches that actually move pretty well, the Jays are unlikely to hammer a bunch of hits off of him, and that has been the trend. Every single Toronto player with 20+ PA vs Jimenez has a sub. 700 OPS, with Jose Bautista checking in with a woeful line of .091/.232/.121. Instead, for the Jays, patience will be key. I&#8217;m looking at you, Kevin Pillar.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>There wasn&#8217;t a lot of movement on the Blue Jays roster these past few days. Matt Dominguez&#8217; brief return to the big leagues was short lived, as the was optioned back to Buffalo to make room for another reliever. That arm ended up being the switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, who is now already on his fourth stint with the club this year.</p>
<p>Similarly, the Orioles haven&#8217;t dealt with much in the way of roster changes. However, the great Darren O&#8217;Day/Jose Bautista rivarly will sadly have to wait for a little while to be renewed, as the submarine righty has been played on the 15 day disabled list with a hamstring strain. In his place, they have recalled RHP Mike Wright who will be starting Saturday&#8217;s game.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<h4>Wieters is Getting Hot</h4>
<p>Matt Wieters is giving the Orioles some much needed depth to the lineup that has been relying on the magic of Manny Machado and the resurgence of Mark Trumbo. In his last 15 games, Weiters is hitting .368 and slugging .614, with 14 RBIs. When he is hitting, the Orioles lineup has a lot more depth and can score a lot of runs in bunches.</p>
<h4>Darwin Barney&#8217;s Tulo Impression</h4>
<p>Over his last 15 games, Darwin Barney has posted a .333 batting average, .377 on base percentage, and a .458 slugging percentage. In that same time, he has seven RBI and hit three home runs, while filling in for the injured Tulowitzki. He is also playing a very good shortstop, which while not a total surprise, is nice to see given Barney&#8217;s lack of MLB experience at the position.</p>
<h4>Devon Travis</h4>
<p>On the other side of the keystone sack, things aren&#8217;t looking quite so healthy. Having cooled off significantly since he made his return to the Blue Jays, Devon Travis is now hitting just .174 on the season. In his last 3 games, he was 0 for 12 with three strikeouts and no walks. The expectation was that Travis would provide the offensive boost over what the Jays had been getting from Goins, but their numbers are almost identical. It will pose an interesting problem for the Jays when Tulo returns on Monday. Do they ride the hot hand in Barney, or do they roll with the long term answer? We&#8217;ll find out soon.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Orioles</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Adam Jones &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Hyun Soo Kim &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Incarnation &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Manny Machado &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mark Trumbo &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Justin Smoak &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Chris Davis &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Matt Wieters &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Pedro Alvarez &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jonathan Schoop &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Darwin Barney &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Ryan Flaherty &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>After a tough three game series in Detroit where the Jays lost two of three, they are now 4.5 games back going into the series against the Orioles. In recent weeks, the Blue Jays have looked poised to continue climbing back towards the top. Things will get tough here, as Manny Machado continues to lead the first place Orioles offence while playing elite defence at both spots on the left side of the infield. There will be plenty of homerun power on display in this series as well, with Trumbo, Davis, and Machado matching up with Bautista, Donaldson, and Encarnacion. The Blue Jays need Marcus Stroman to bounce back from his less than stellar outings on the road and make a statement Thursday night against the O&#8217;s.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Revisiting J.A. Happ&#8217;s Offseason Contract</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/revisiting-j-a-happs-contract/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:00:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the Blue Jays signed J.A. Happ to a three year, $36 million deal in late November, the reaction from the fan base was mixed. Happ was a familiar face for Jays fans; they had seen him bounce in and out of the rotation over two-and-a-half mostly forgettable seasons. Both injuries and ineffectiveness kept him from locking down a starting job. Although, there were a few memorable moments in his Jays career. As one example, Happ made the Opening Day rotation in 2013 as a result of Ricky Romero&#8217;s sudden decline. That was certainly memorable. Whether it was bad luck or his own inconsistency, Happ was never able to cement his place in the Jays’ rotation during his time with Toronto. This had been an established pattern throughout his career. 2015 was the first season in which he’d made more than 30 starts, and only the third time he’d appeared in more than 30 games.</p>
<p>Having the security of a three year deal will make Happ’s place in the rotation much more certain. Teams don’t pay $12 million dollars a year for a swing-man. The deal may have seemed suspect at the time, but rest of the offseason has made Happ&#8217;s contract look much better. Here are a few of the other comparable pitchers that signed this offseason. (Note: All numbers in the tables are 2015 totals)</p>
<h3>Happ and Wei-Yin Chen</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-99 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappChen.png" alt="HappChen" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Once I sat down to write this piece, Chen was the first comp to spring to mind. They’re both left-handers with some experience pitching in the AL East, and a reputation for not pitching deep into games. Looking at their career numbers rather than 2015, Chen is also someone who has historically out-performed his FIP, while Happ has generally undershot it. As well, Chen has been reliable for the Orioles, while Happ has tormented organizations with potential. Chen also has the benefit of moving from the competitive American League East to the less competitive National League East, while Happ is transitioning back to the AL after his time in Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>As for contracts, Chen signed a five-year deal with the Marlins worth $80 million dollars, which works out to an average annual value of $16 million per season. He will also cost the Marlins their second-round pick, as he declined a qualifying offer from the Baltimore Orioles. However, Chen is also a few years younger than Happ, which likely factored in to his getting a longer deal.</p>
<p>In a vacuum, Wei-Yin Chen is the better pitcher, and his going to a more favorable situation can’t hurt. With that said, his contract also gives him much more leverage with the opt-out after two seasons and the vesting option after six. The Jays, who would have had to give up their first rounder, were probably not seriously considering Chen at that price.</p>
<h3>Happ and Yovani Gallardo</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-101 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/happgallardo.png" alt="happgallardo" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>Despite his being effective against the Jays during the season, there were few free-agent pitchers that made Jays fans less excited than Gallardo. Though the baseball card stats (13-11, 3.42 ERA over 33 starts) look fine at first glance, there were several other things that hampered Gallardo’s value prior to his signing a contract with the Orioles. For one thing, his strikeout rate has cratered over the last several years, finishing 2015 at an ugly 5.9 K/9. For another, even though he made 33 starts, Gallardo didn’t throw many innings, averaging out at less than six per start. The last time Gallardo threw more than six innings in a start was June 27th, and that start was the only time all year he threw more than seven. Gallardo’s 2015 was his seventh full season in the Major Leagues, having notched 1473 innings in his career.One wonders if the miles on his arm are contributing to the waning strikeout rates and stamina.</p>
<p>The money (<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/possible-snag-in-deal-between-orioles-yovani-gallardo.html">and initially failed physical</a>) bore that out as Gallardo signed a two-year deal with the Orioles for $22 million, with a club option that could bring the total value of the deal up to $35 million. He did also cost the Orioles their first round selection, which would have been the 14<sup>th</sup> overall pick. They do get a compensation pick back with Chen signing with the Marlins, but it still ends up as a slight loss for them as they got a pitcher who&#8217;s probably going to be worse than Chen this year.</p>
<p>In the end, from only the stats, the balance of Gallardo’s career so far is certainly better than Happ’s. However, the declining innings and strikeouts from Gallardo, combined with his costing the Orioles a first round pick makes the Happ deal look like a better call. Does Gallardo’s contract being shorter make it better? Maybe, but teams generally shouldn’t throw away a first round pick for two years of a clearly declining starter.</p>
<h3>Happ and Marco Estrada</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-100 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappEstrada.png" alt="HappEstrada" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>The 2015 statistics are different, but we clearly see two pitchers who&#8217;ve had similar career paths. Estrada, like Happ, has been inconsistent, previously bouncing in and out of the rotation with the Brewers. This seemed like it was going to continue in Toronto, as Estrada started the season in the bullpen, but he soon made his way into the rotation. Once that happened, the rest was history. He established himself as one of the Blue Jays’ best pitchers, posting career bests in starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts; leading to a 10<sup>th</sup> place finish in Cy Young voting. After that season, Estrada, like the others on this list, had the dreaded qualifying offer hanging over his head, which hampered his value. Despite having a better year, he signed for similar money to Happ.</p>
<p>If we look solely at the 2015 stats, it appears that the Jays got a bargain with Estrada. However, as is the case with the other players we&#8217;ve looked at, trends and the body of work are important. In comparison to others in this piece, Estrada simply didn’t have the track record of success before coming to the Blue Jays. They acquired him for Adam Lind in the 2014-15 offseason; a player the Brewers &#8220;liked&#8221; so much that they moved him to the Mariners prior to this season. While the qualifying offer didn&#8217;t severely hamper the market for Chen and Gallardo, it did for Estrada. Though, that also could have been a few troubling trends. Estrada&#8217;s FIP was the second-highest he’d had in a full season in the big leagues, and despite a career low ERA, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career. Estrada thrived on a fantastic change-up, and it will be interesting to see if an off-season of preparation can help the league adjust to him. Nevertheless, Estrada and Happ provide similar value for the Blue Jays in 2016, with Estrada probably being a little bit better.</p>
<h3>Happ and Ian Kennedy</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-102 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappKennedy.png" alt="HappKennedy" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This offseason, Ian Kennedy got five years and $70 million dollars from the Royals. This came after a season wherein he lost 15 games and had a 4.26 ERA. Oh&#8230;and and he’ll cost the Royals their first round pick. That’s not a joke. That actually happened. Of course, the Royals are coming off of two World Series appearances&#8230;so it&#8217;s hard to criticize that front office too much. Maybe it&#8217;s mechanical: Edinson Volquez had his best year with the Royals, spotting 96 mph fastballs on the corner against the Jays during the postseason. If they fixed Volquez, maybe they think they can fix Kennedy.</p>
<p>Kennedy was successful as recently as 2014, when he notched 13 wins, 201 innings, and a nice enough 3.63 ERA. He hasn&#8217;t always been bad. He’s also made 30 starts for six consecutive years, which is something to note in an age of increased pitcher injuries. As well, he did post a 9.3 K/9, which is a nice number from a starter. However, he&#8217;ll probably never reach the heights of his 2011 season in Arizona, when he finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, as he&#8217;s moving into the American League. The formerly touted Yankees prospect is more of a durable journeyman at this point. Although, given the construction of their team&#8230;maybe that’s what the Royals were looking for?</p>
<p>They have built fantastic bullpens, year after year, and maybe all they wanted was a pitcher who can go six innings and pass the ball off. As the Royals’ pick is somewhere in the 20s, a lost first rounder probably didn&#8217;t trouble them as much. Even then it’s still one less draft pick, spent on a pitcher who&#8217;s had one good season in the last three. Ultimately, this one’s the easiest to argue for the Jays, as Kennedy’s almost certainly a worse pitcher than Happ, save for that durability.</p>
<h3>Happ and David Price</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-103 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/HappPrice.png" alt="HappPrice" width="769" height="61" /></a></p>
<p>This is a hilariously unfair comparison for several reasons. David Price, by any measurement, is much, much better than J.A. Happ, and got way more money. The Red Sox didn’t even need to give up a draft pick to get him, as Price was acquired by the Blue Jays in a mid-season trade. One might use Happ’s stretch with the Pirates as a comparison, but playing the arbitrary endpoints game at the trade deadline is disingenuous at best. Taking the best stretch of Happ’s career and comparing it to an elite level starter&#8217;s usual output is a shaky attempt to justify the cavernous drop off from Price to Happ.</p>
<p>The reason Price is on this list is solely because he was the one whom Jays fans compared Happ to when he was signed. After spending prospects to get Price at the deadline, and watching him dominate down the stretch, fans (and I count myself in this group) harbored dreams of him staying with the Jays after his contract expired. Price certainly said all the right things about wanting to stay, but given how much he was going to cost, it was unlikely that he was going to return.</p>
<p>There were other holes for the Jays to fill, and future problems to consider. Estrada was a free agent, Mark Buehrle’s reliable 200 innings departed, and they had a club option on knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, leaving up to four potential vacancies in Toronto’s rotation. With an arbitration raise coming to MVP Josh Donaldson, and Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion’s respective free agencies looming after this season, committing $30 million+ per season to David Price just didn’t make a lot of sense. There are times when spending for high-end talent is the right call, but for the Jays, already stocked with a lot of great players, spreading the wealth around was much more pragmatic.</p>
<p>In the clear light of day, and with real baseball that counts just around the corner, we can look back and see that the J.A. Happ contract was fine&#8230;perhaps even good with how the pitching market developed. Seeing that potentially lesser pitchers signed for more money and cost draft picks, the Jays moving quickly on Happ looks much better. However, coming down from the high of David Price, it’s easy to see how Happ would have seemed disappointing earlier on in the offseason. It didn’t help that Happ had a prior history with the Jays; a history that some fans remember all too well (for the wrong reasons).</p>
<p>J.A. Happ isn’t exciting. He’s not an ace. He’s not someone you can reliably pencil in for 200 innings. He&#8217;s not someone who&#8217;s going to contend for the Cy Young every year. J.A. Happ is a multi-grain bagel with butter for breakfast: it&#8217;s okay, it gets the job done, but it’s not much fun, and you’re not really looking forward to it. David Price was the cinnamon roll with sugary frosting: delicious, enjoyable, and something you want to have again, even if it isn&#8217;t a great long-term decision for your health. If there’s something we’ve all learned growing up, it’s that taking the bagel is probably the smarter move.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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