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	<title>Toronto &#187; Non-Roster Invitees</title>
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		<title>Which Blue Jays are Putting the Barrel on the Ball?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/23/which-blue-jays-are-finding-the-barrel/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 23 May 2017 10:51:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Non-Roster Invitees]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11056</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in February I wrote an article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard here. Just [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in February I wrote an <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/17/barrels-of-fun…the-sweet-spot/">article around the Statcast &#8216;Barrels&#8217; metric</a> and how the Blue Jays (new and returning) stacked up in regards to that metric. If you haven&#8217;t heard much about Barrels and their &#8216;official&#8217; definition, that article would be a great spot to brush up on them. You can see the leaderboard <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard" target="_blank">here.</a> Just the other day, Tom Tango tweeted out some visualizations of the different definitions of contact.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">These are the six categories of the Radial Launch Profile.<a href="https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu">https://t.co/oZpa2tqSwu</a> <br />Top line is Teddies, bottom line is ?!?Alfredos <a href="https://t.co/sja9MQhhXJ">pic.twitter.com/sja9MQhhXJ</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Tangotiger (@tangotiger) <a href="https://twitter.com/tangotiger/status/866271088413749251">May 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>These are some nice tight visual groupings. And some R scores very close to 1. This means that from 2015-2016, the same batters generally had similar batted ball profiles. That&#8217;s a good indication that it isn&#8217;t a statistic that is a product of luck (like hitting with RISP vs. bases empty). Players who know how to barrel the ball one year tend not to forget how to do it the next. But can you change your batted ball profile if you know what you want to do differently? Let&#8217;s explore.</p>
<p>When we look at the 2016, we can see some winners and losers based on Barrels per Batter Ball Event (Brls_DIV_BBE).</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11060" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-20161.png" alt="barrels jays 2016" width="737" height="462" /></a></p>
<p>Who might be interesting to look at? Well, I highlighted them for us. Especially since we want to see what&#8217;s happened to their numbers this season. This is the 2017 chart.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11059" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/barrels-jays-2017.png" alt="barrels jays 2017" width="773" height="464" /></a></p>
<p>Ah, yes. I&#8217;ve left Ceciliani and Stroman on the chart. That&#8217;s really to demonstrate how intuitive &#8220;Barrels&#8221; are. Both of them have a home run and a double in very limited PA and, as a result, have unsustainable numbers in the barrels categories. Instead, let&#8217;s look at a few of the players that are more worth highlighting.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Justin Smoak&#8217;s Made Real Changes</h4>
<p>Smoak&#8217;s always been at the top of the ranking when considering batted ball events, but fell off significantly in Brls/PA in 2016 because he struck out 32.6% of the time. He simply did not make enough contact to do damage in a high percentage of his plate appearances. The 2017 version of Justin Smoak is more disciplined, and, back in the spring, he mentioned making a conscious decision to <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2017/03/12/blue-jays-justin-smoak-to-ditch-all-or-nothing-approach">not try to hit a home run every time</a> he got to the plate.</p>
<p>As a result, he&#8217;s jumped from barreling the ball in 6.5% of his plate appearances to 10.5%, which tops everyone on the Jays who plays regularly. This follows along with his strikeout rate, which dropped from 32% to 19%. Another way to measure this change in approach is with contact rate in the zone. According to FanGraphs, his zone contact rate jumped from 82% last year to 94% this year. Not swinging like everything needs to clear the fence has paid huge dividends for Smoak.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Jose Bautista Might be Worth Worrying About</h4>
<p>Bautista was once one of the great power hitting threats in all of baseball. We know that these kinds of hitter have a barrel per batted event percentage of between 18 and 25 percent, and a barrel per plate appearance percentage of between 9 and 11 percent. When Bautista makes contact, he does so with authority, showing up with a high rank in average flyball distance. He also has one of the better peak and average exit velocities on the team. What it doesn&#8217;t quite translate into, however, is barrels. Alex Avila, Aaron Judge and Miguel Sano can barrel the ball over 20% of the time. Jose can only make it happen 9% of the time, which is Jean Segura and Kyle Seager territory. At this point in his career, Jose is still able to get on base, but not do the kind of damage he once did. You could certainly keep him up in the lineup, but it&#8217;s possible that the cleanup spot isn&#8217;t where he&#8217;s meant to be anymore.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Kevin Pillar&#8217;s Making Good on His Promise</h4>
<p>Much has been made of Pillar&#8217;s very public declaration to change his approach at the plate. In 2016, he barreled up the ball about as often as Ryan Goins, which is to say, not often at all. In 2017, he&#8217;s taken a great leap forward, going from barreling the ball in 2.7% of his batted balls to 6.7%, and from barreling the ball in 1.9% of plate appearances to 5.3%. Kevin Pillar now hits the ball with authority, even slightly more often than Bautista does over all his plate appearances. This is very strong evidence that he has been able to make a meaningful change in his approach. Remember, Barrels are about process, not results. In Pillar&#8217;s case the results have certainly followed. His tAV has jumped from .232 to .302 with the new approach, his walks are up significantly, and his strikeouts are down. Pillar wanted to confine his swings to pitches that were really hittable, and every measure we have has shown him to be successful in that regard.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Steve Pearce and Devon Travis&#8217; Numbers Are Diverging</h4>
<p>I grouped Steve Pearce and Devon Travis together for a reason. In 2016, in a platoon role, Pearce was the far superior power hitter, and Travis looked like a middle infielder with little to no pop in his bat. In 2017, Travis got of to a rough start, but he&#8217;s been tearing the cover off the ball recently. Meanwhile, Pearce got incosistent playing time and then got hurt. Their Statcast profiles, however, come out incredibly similar in 2017. They max velocity, average distance, barrels per batted event, and barrels per plate appearance are all within a digit or two of one another. It&#8217;s no surprise Pearce&#8217;s tAV sits at .215 and Travis&#8217; sits at .224. Again, the process predicts the results—both players have been worth -0.2 WARP. We should watch and see if their fortunes diverge once Pearce returns from injury.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>The Blue Jays Aren&#8217;t Barrelling</h4>
<p>Looking at the chart as a whole, one other thing becomes clear. The Blue Jays are not, as a group, barrelling up the ball nearly as much as they did in 2016. Jose Bautista&#8217;s 8.8% and 4.8% were buried in the middle of the list last year, but now his 9.0% and 5.2% are, essentially, fourth on the team. The lineup simply isn&#8217;t made up of guys who hit a lot of homers or doubles into the gap. That isn&#8217;t the only way to score runs, of course, since the 2017 team has scored 186 runs after 45 games, and the 2016 team has scored only 183. Maybe some of John Gibbons&#8217; bunt and squeeze tactics are a result of him not seeing anyone who can hit the ball with authority and reacting accordingly.</p>
<p>Either way, there are things that we can learn from barrelled balls. First off, we can see that, over and over again, the nature of the contact with the ball is consistent with the quality of the result. There is no way to defend against a barrelled ball, and if you&#8217;re aware of a way to nudge the launch angle and exit velocity into a certain zone as a hitter, you should absolutely do that. The other lesson, from Smoak and Pillar, is that a change in approach can help a hitter with a hole in his game. Smoak didn&#8217;t need to make harder or better contact, he needed to make it more often. Pillar didn&#8217;t need to make more contact overall, he needed to make it in the strike zone. Teams can use this type of data (obviously with more sophistication) to target players where small changes might offer big payoffs. The small sliver of Statcast data that the public has access to offers an opportunity to change what skills are valued in the game, imagine what teams will be doing with the whole database at their fingertips.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:</em> <em>Nick Turchiaro</em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Non-Roster Invites In Blue Jays Camp: The Pitchers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-pitchers/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-pitchers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Mar 2016 13:55:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Steve McEwen]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Aardsma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Non-Roster Invitees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat McCoy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rafael Soriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spring Training]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=36</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on the 40 man roster &#8211; twelve pitchers and seventeen position players. Fourteen (eight pitchers, six hitters) of these players have some major league experience while the remaining eighteen players comprising of minor league fodder mixed in with legitimate prospects.</em></p>
<p><em>Over the next three days, BP Toronto will be breaking down these NRIs into three groups &#8211; veteran pitchers, veteran hitters, and prospects &#8211; and assessing their odds of making the opening day roster.</em></p>
<p>Without further ado, let&#8217;s get to the veteran pitchers in camp looking for a job.</p>
<p><strong><a title="David Aardsma" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45369" target="_blank">David Aardsma</a> – Right Handed Relief Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 41.2 IP, 4.00 ERA, 4.72 DRA, 8.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9</p>
<p>Aardsma, the guest on the <a title="debut episode of Artificial Turf Wars" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/podcasts/artificial-turf-wars-episode-1-david-aardsma-debuts-and-dingers/" target="_blank">debut episode of Artificial Turf Wars</a>, was as one of the best college pitchers during his time at Rice University. An eventual first round draft pick, he is most remembered as the Mariners closer in 2009 and 2010. During that time, Aardsma posted a 2.90 ERA and saved 69 games. Following those two terrific years, he struggled with injuries. After undergoing hip labrum surgery and then two Tommy John procedures he managed to throw only 71.1 innings with an ERA of 4.54 between 2011 and 2015. Finally healthy, Aardsma’s 2015 was spent with the middling Braves where he posted a 4.70 ERA in 30.2 IP and struck out 35 with a fastball that sat 91-92 MPH. He was excellent at the start of the year, posting an ERA of 1.80 over the first 20 innings, but over his final ten innings his ERA was an abysmal 10.13.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> Aardsma is likely mostly just depth in the bullpen should they need him, and he can provide some decent innings for the Blue Jays as long as he isn’t over exposed.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 3.5/5</p>
<p>If Soriano (below) isn&#8217;t healthy, Aardsma should have a leg up on Steve Delabar for the final bullpen spot, who seems far removed from the pitcher who made the 2013 AL All-Star team.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Scott Copeland" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66520" target="_blank">Scott Copeland</a> – Right Handed Swingman</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 118.3 IP, 5.05 ERA,5.13 DRA, 4.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9</p>
<p>In with a bang and out with a whimper is the best way to describe Copeland&#8217;s 2015 with the Blue Jays. In his first start with the team threw seven innings of six hit, one run ball, then gave up seven runs in his following 1.1 innings. A control specialist, Copeland doesn&#8217;t have a lot of upside and has already been on and off the 40-man once and cleared waivers.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> For a guy who is 1o-12th  on the organizational starting chart he is fine, but a lot will have to go wrong for Copeland to ever make it back to Toronto.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 0/5</p>
<p>Unless the rotation is hit by a meteor in ST, Copeland has no chance of making the team.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Scott Diamond" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57790" target="_blank">Scott Diamond</a> – Left Handed Starting Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 122.7 IP, 4.89 ERA, 5.19 DRA, 4.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9</p>
<p>The Blue Jays decided to bring in a soft tossing lefty who relies on control and mixing pitches. No, it’s not Mark Buehrle. A veteran of 58 major league starts, the Canadian-born Diamond has posted a respectable 4.43 ERA over 343 innings. While he has never been a strikeout pitcher, he has produced very solid strikeout to walk ratios. His best season came in 2012 when he posted a 3.54 ERA for the Twins while striking out batters at a 12.6 percent rate and walking less than five percent of all batters. To accompany his strong control stats he also posted a 53.4 percent ground ball rate.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> He is a quality depth and a spot start candidate who will probably be in line to get starts before someone like Copeland.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 0/5. Much like Copeland there would have to be four or five serious injuries in the rotation for him to get his shot.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Roberto &quot;Fausto Carmona&quot; Hernandez" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=33548" target="_blank">Roberto (Fausto Carmona) Hernandez</a> – Right Handed Swingman</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 15 IP, 5.01 ERA, 5.30 DRA, 5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9</p>
<p>Hernandez is yet another depth piece for the Blue Jays rotation. Formerly an All-Star with the Cleveland Indians under his alias Fausto Carmona, Herhandez is probably the best of the non-roster starters brought to camp. Despite declining velocity, he has posted a very respectible 4.19 ERA in 249 innings over the past two seasons. This is entirely due to his ability get good sink which makes him a sure bet to post a ground ball rate greater than 50 percent.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> Likely the 9<sup>th</sup> man in line should a starter go down, he could provide some quality long relief outings out of the bullpen.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 1/5</p>
<p>Hernandez likely has no shot at making the opening day rotation, but he gets one point for his ability to provide help in relief.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Wade LeBlanc" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=51959" target="_blank">Wade LeBlanc</a> – Left Handed Swingman</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 34.7 IP, 4.27 ERA, 4.56 DRA, 6.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9</p>
<p>LeBlanc is a 31 year old veteran with 446 innings in his big league career who spent last season in Japan. Another soft tossing left hander, he never has shown a terrific ability to command the ball or strike out batters. In addition to not having any sort of defining characteristic as a starter, he doesn’t have much of an identity or path to playing time in the bullpen. For LeBlanc’s career he has a triple slash of .313/.368/.532 against left-handed batters, so <a title="Aaron Loup" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60619" target="_blank">Aaron Loup</a>’s injury concerns don’t appear to help his chances.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> Depth starter at AAA to keep the Buffalo Bisons owners happy. Maybe he gets called up if the Jays need a long man who they don’t mind losing on waivers, but that&#8217;s really his only value.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 0/5</p>
<p>There is just no chance. LeBlanc is even behind Copeland on the depth chart.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Patrick McCoy" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56074" target="_blank">Patrick McCoy</a> – Left Handed Relief Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projections: 57.7 IP, 4.65 ERA, 4.93 DRA, 5.8 K/9,  3.3 BB/9</p>
<p>One of the few true lefty relievers in camp, Pat McCoy has one of the clearest paths to the majors of any non-roster invitee. With Aaron Loup dealing with flexor tendon issues and possible extended time off, the Blue Jays will need another lefty. McCoy throws 91-92 mph and has a decent slider, but is relatively unproven at the major league level, with only 14 career major league innings under his belt. While his Triple-A ERA isn&#8217;t great by traditional standards (4.03 in 89.1 innings) either, he has been used against right-handers and left-handers which doesn’t suit him entirely. Where he excels is as a lefty specialist, or LOOGY; against lefty minor leaguers he allowed an OPS of .593 in 2015 and .575 in 2014. To go along with this dominance he throws 91-92 and has a useable slider.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> McCoy could either be a left handed specialist or a long man for the Blue Jays. In AAA he was used in multiple innings fairly regularly.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 3/5</p>
<p>There is a strong chance that with a solid spring McCoy could be chosen as the temporary second lefty out of the pen while Loup recovers from injury.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Brad Penny" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=524" target="_blank">Brad Penny</a> – Right Handed Starting Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projections: 104.3 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.93 DRA, 4.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9</p>
<p>Easily the most experienced non-roster pitcher the Jays brought in, Penny is a veteran of nearly 2000 MLB innings. Despite his age (38 in May), Penny still throws in the low 90’s with a sinking fastball. However, while he has spent plenty of time in his career on big league rosters, Penny hasn’t truly seen regular duty in the majors since 2011 when he posted an ERA over 5.00 in 31 appearances. Since then, Penny has flipped between the bullpen and starting for the Giants, Marlins and White Sox. From 2003 to 2007 he was a very solid pitcher for the Dodgers and Marlins putting up a 3.72 ERA over 911 innings. That may not sound that impressive, but because baseball was just starting to come out of the steroid era, the 3.72 ERA was actually 15 percent above league average.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> Yet another AAA starter who will provide depth for the Blue Jays should they be targeted by a sociopath who removes arms.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 0/5</p>
<p>There just are too many pitchers ahead of Penny at this time to give him a legitimate shot of even light hope to make the team.</p>
<p><strong><a title="Rafael Soriano" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=1182" target="_blank">Rafael Soriano</a> – Right Handed Relief Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 38 IP, 3.92 ERA, 4.54 DRA, 7.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9</p>
<p>Probably the most notable name on this list, Rafael Soriano was one of the best relief pitchers of the last decade. With a career 2.89 ERA (an astounding 44% above league average), one might begin to wonder how he is only a non-roster invite. The reason is that after a fantastic first half in 2014 (0.97 ERA at the all-star break), he imploded down the stretch to the tune of a 6.48 ERA over the second half. He lost his closing job to current Jays reliever Drew Storen, then went unsigned until midway through the 2015 season. Eventually the Chicago Cubs took a chance and Soriano threw only six innings with poor results before a shoulder injury ended his season. Reports are that he was throwing well in the Dominican Winter League, leading to the Blue Jays inviting him to camp.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> If he regains his old form he provides terrific depth to the Blue Jays bullpen in much the same way <a title="Ryan Madson" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31537" target="_blank">Ryan Madson</a> did for the Royals last season.</p>
<p><em>Chance of Making the Opening Day Roster:</em> 4/5</p>
<p>If the reports out of the Dominican are accurate, and if he can sort out his visa issues and actually show up to camp, there is a very good chance that Soriano could beat out the remaining candidates for the last spot in the bullpen.</p>
<p>Despite a decently large group of non-roster pitchers in camp, the only three who have much of a shot are Soriano, Aardsma, and McCoy. And without the injury to Aaron Loup, this list would be even smaller. There just aren&#8217;t a lot of jobs open for Blue Jays pitchers this spring.</p>
<p><em>Tune in tomorrow for Part Two where we will be taking a look at the non-roster positional players in camp.</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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